Wednesday, May 31, 2023

United States Congregational Growth by State: 2022 vs 2020-2021

See below for US states/District of Columbia by net change in congregations for the year 2022. Membership growth rates by state can be found here. Congregational growth rates often provide insights into changes in active membership, albeit this is far than a perfect metric for ascertaining active membership. For instance, new congregations may be organized to accommodate a specific language group or demographic such as young single adults without a noticeable increase in the number of active members in a particular area. Moreover, congregations may be consolidated after years for slow decline or due to members moving away from a particular area. Nevertheless, trends in congregational growth over time often provide the greatest insight into active membership changes given congregations must meet certain requirements for active membership to operate.

  1. Utah    +37
  2. Texas    +7
  3. Michigan    +3
  4. Arkansas    +2
  5. Indiana    +2
  6. Montana   +2
  7. North Carolina    +2
  8. South Carolina   +2
  9. Tennessee    +2
  10. Alaska    +1
  11. Hawaii    +1
  12. Minnesota    +1
  13. Missouri    +1
  14. New York    +1
  15. South Dakota    +1
  16. West Virginia    +1
  17. Wisconsin    +1
  18. Alabama    0
  19. Delaware    0
  20. District of Columbia    0
  21. Florida    0
  22. Idaho    0
  23. Kansas    0
  24. Kentucky    0
  25. Maine    0
  26. Massachusetts    0
  27. Mississippi    0
  28. Nebraska    0
  29. New Hampshire    0
  30. New Mexico    0
  31. North Dakota    0
  32. Oklahoma    0
  33. Rhode Island    0
  34. Vermont    0
  35. Wyoming    0
  36. Connecticut    -1
  37. Iowa    -1
  38. Louisiana    -1
  39. Maryland    -1
  40. New Jersey    -1
  41. Pennsylvania    -1
  42. Virginia    -1
  43. Illinois    -2
  44. Ohio    -2
  45. Georgia    -3
  46. Colorado    -4
  47. Oregon    -5
  48. Nevada    -9
  49. Arizona    -10
  50. Washington    -32
  51. California    -55

In contrast, see below for the net change in congregations by state for the two-year period of 2020-2021:

  1. Utah    +146
  2. Idaho    +32
  3. Florida    +15
  4. Arizona    +14
  5. Texas    +14
  6. Nevada    +12
  7. Virginia    +12
  8. Maryland    +6
  9. North Carolina    +6
  10. South Carolina    +6
  11. Missouri    +5
  12. Kentucky    +4
  13. Colorado    +3
  14. Georgia    +3
  15. Iowa    +3
  16. New York    +3
  17. Arkansas    +2
  18. New Jersey    +2
  19. Ohio    +2
  20. Tennessee    +2
  21. Connecticut    +1
  22. Hawaii    +1
  23. Montana    +1
  24. Wyoming    +1
  25. Alabama    0
  26. Alaska    0
  27. Delaware    0
  28. District of Columbia    0
  29. Maine    0
  30. Massachusetts    0
  31. Michigan    0
  32. Nebraska    0
  33. New Hampshire    0
  34. North Dakota    0
  35. Oklahoma    0
  36. Rhode Island    0
  37. South Dakota    0
  38. Vermont    0
  39. Wisconsin    0
  40. Illinois    -1
  41. Kansas    -1
  42. Minnesota    -1
  43. Mississippi    -1
  44. New Mexico    -1
  45. Pennsylvania    -1
  46. West Virginia    -1
  47. Indiana    -2
  48. Louisiana    -2
  49. Oregon    -5
  50. Washington    -23
  51. California    -40

Wednesday, May 24, 2023

Mormon Land Podcast Episode

The Salt Lake Tribune invited me to do a podcast on the 2022 country-by-country membership statistical figures released earlier this month. The podcast can be accessed here.

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Congregational Growth by Country in 2022

Below is a list of the countries where the Church reported a net increase of four or more units for the year 2022. The annual percentage increase for the number of wards and branches for each country is also provided:

  1. Philippines +16 (1.27% increase)
  2. Democratic Republic of the Congo +14 (5.49% increase)
  3. Mexico +14 (0.76% increase)
  4. Ghana +12 (3.52% increase)
  5. Nigeria +11 (1.45% increase)
  6. Tanzania +10 (76.9% increase) 
  7. Liberia +9 (15.5% increase) 
  8. Mozambique +6 (12.0% increase) 
  9. Papua New Guinea +5 (5.75% increase) 
  10. Chile +4 (0.70% increase) 
  11. Republic of the Congo +4 (14.3% increase) 
  12. Sierra Leone +4 (4.65% increase) 
The net increase in the number of wards and branches in these 12 countries totals 124; a larger number than the net increase in the number of wards and branches for the entire Church for 2022 (15). Four countries experienced a net decrease of four or more units during 2022. Altogether, the net decrease in congregations in these four nations totaled 109. 
  1. United States -62 (0.42% decrease)  
  2. Russia -21 (23.3% decrease)  
  3. Japan -20 (7.97% decrease)
  4. Canada -6 (1.20% decrease)
Previous lists for annual congregational growth by country are available for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020-2021.

Sunday, May 21, 2023

UPDATED: The 10 Countries with the Most Members without a Temple Announced, Under Construction, or in Operation - May 2023

I have updated the list of the countries with the most members without a temple using year-end 2022 membership totals. Temples that service stakes, districts, and mission branches in each country are identified. Previous lists are also available for April 2022, March 2022, November 2020, April 2020, April 2019, October 2018, April 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2013, mid-2011, late 2008, and late 2007. Countries in Italics do not have a stake. Indonesia was removed from this list given the announcement of the Jakarta Indonesia Temple on April 2nd, 2023. Benin has since ascended to the list to replace Indonesia. Benin is the country on the list with the most recent Church establishment. The first branch created in Benin was organized in 2005.

 1. Uganda

  • 20,693 members
  • 3 stakes, 3 districts
  • 37 congregations (18 wards, 20 branches)
  • Johannesburg South Africa Temple (Nairobi Kenya Temple under construction)
2. Mongolia
  • 12,477 members
  • 2 stakes, 1 district
  • 24 congregations (12 wards, 12 branches)
  • Hong Kong China Temple (Shanghai China Temple announced)
3. Malaysia
  • 10,829 members
  • 0 stakes, 5 districts
  • 25 congregations (25 branches)
  • Hong Kong China Temple (Singapore Republic of Singapore Temple announced)

4. Marshall Islands

  • 6,832 members
  • 2 stakes
  • 13 congregations (12 wards, 1 branch)
  • Suva Fiji Temple (Tarawa Kiribati Temple announced)

5.  Jamaica

  • 6,810 members
  • 1 stake, 1 district
  • 18 congregations (6 wards, 12 branches)
  • Port-au-Prince Haiti Temple

6.  Guyana

  • 6,645 members
  • 0 stakes, 2 districts
  • 12 congregations (12 branches)
  • Caracas Venezuela Temple

7.  Togo

  • 6,500 members
  • 3 stakes
  • 22 congregations (15 wards, 9 branches)
  • Ghana Accra Temple

8.  Federated States of Micronesia

  • 5,966 members
  • 1 stake, 2 districts
  • 23 congregations (5 wards, 18 branches)
  • Cebu City Philippines Temple (Yigo Guam Temple scheduled for dedication)

9.  Benin

  • 5,606 members
  • 2 stakes
  • 23 congregations (16 wards, 4 branches)
  • Accra Ghana Temple (Lagos Nigeria Temple announced)

 10.  Belize

  • 5,534 members
  • 2 districts
  • 12 congregations (12 branches)
  • Guatemala City Guatemala Temple (Coban Guatemala Temple announced)

Saturday, May 20, 2023

April 2023 Newsletter

 Click here to access the April 2023 newsletter for cumorah.com.

Monday, May 15, 2023

Membership Growth by US State for 2022

See below for a list of annual membership growth rates by each United States state for the year 2022. Previous lists are available for 2017, 2018, and the biennial period of 2020-2021. It is important to note that annual membership growth rates by state have mostly returned to trends seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly with only eight states reporting a net decline in membership for the year (there were 22 during the 2020-2021 period, whereas there were 13 in 2018 and nine in 2017). The biggest unexpected development was that membership growth rates in Utah slowed significantly in 2022 compared to most previous years (usually about 1-2 percent a year, whereas this past year it was a mere 0.56% - probably the lowest membership growth rate ever reported for the Church in Utah). Most states returned to previous membership growth rates experienced during the 2010s or have reported more rapid membership growth than usual. These findings indicate that it is likely more Latter-day Saints are moving away from Utah and states with negative membership growth to these states with the highest membership growth rates and/or there has been an increase in convert baptisms in these states with the greatest membership growth. Some other states that had an unusual year for 2022 compared to recent years (in regard to annual membership growth rates) include New York (most rapid membership growth rate since 2008), Arkansas and Missouri (most rapid membership growth rates since 2004), and South Carolina and Tennessee (most rapid membership growth rates since 2007). California is the only state that has consistently experienced a decline in membership for the most consecutive years (negative membership growth has occurred since 2014). The rate of membership decrease in California was highest during the 2020-2021 period (-2.84%), and membership decline has returned to rates seen shortly before the COVID-19 pandemic (it was -0.81 in 2018 and -0.82 in 2022).

  1. Arkansas    4.05%
  2. Tennessee    3.55%
  3. Missouri    3.43%
  4. South Carolina    3.10%
  5. North Carolina    2.73%
  6. Alabama    2.54%
  7. Florida    2.41%
  8. New York    2.40%
  9. Oklahoma    2.06%
  10. Kentucky    2.03%
  11. Texas    1.96%
  12. Kansas    1.85%
  13. North Dakota    1.77%
  14. South Dakota    1.74%
  15. Rhode Island    1.59%
  16. Georgia    1.57%
  17. Minnesota    1.53%
  18. Connecticut    1.36%
  19. Wisconsin    1.31%
  20. Ohio    1.28%
  21. Indiana    1.23%
  22. Mississippi    1.15%
  23. New Jersey    1.09%
  24. District of Columbia    1.02%
  25. Alaska    0.97%
  26. Massachusetts    0.95%
  27. Illinois    0.85%
  28. Montana    0.83%
  29. Michigan    0.80%
  30. Iowa    0.79%
  31. Virginia    0.72%
  32. Nebraska    0.69%
  33. West Virginia    0.67%
  34. Maine    0.61%
  35. Louisiana    0.60%
  36. Idaho    0.56%
  37. Utah    0.56%
  38. Wyoming    0.51%
  39. New Hampshire    0.32%
  40. Delaware    0.32%
  41. Arizona    0.27%
  42. Hawaii    0.13%
  43. Pennsylvania    0.08%
  44. Maryland    -0.03%
  45. New Mexico    -0.06%
  46. Colorado    -0.20%
  47. Nevada    -0.33%
  48. Vermont    -0.52%
  49. Oregon    -0.62%
  50. Washington    -0.78%
  51. California    -0.82%

See below for a list of states ranked by total membership as of year-end 2022:

  1. Utah    2,173,560
  2. California    728,995
  3. Idaho    473,894
  4. Arizona    439,411
  5. Texas    378,281
  6. Washington    281,389
  7. Nevada    181,975
  8. Florida    168,527
  9. Oregon    150,207
  10. Colorado    148,708
  11. Virginia    97,449
  12. North Carolina    94,018
  13. Georgia    89,285
  14. New York    84,857
  15. Missouri    77,959
  16. Hawaii    74,952
  17. New Mexico    69,055
  18. Wyoming    67,797
  19. Ohio    63,814
  20. Tennessee    57,422
  21. Illinois    57,015
  22. Pennsylvania    52,193
  23. Oklahoma    51,847
  24. Montana    51,715
  25. Indiana    46,823
  26. Michigan    45,547
  27. South Carolina    44,230
  28. Maryland    43,296
  29. Alabama    39,832
  30. Kansas    39,356
  31. Kentucky    37,830
  32. Arkansas    35,405
  33. New Jersey    34,536
  34. Alaska    33,574
  35. Minnesota    33,365
  36. Louisiana    29,727
  37. Iowa    28,697
  38. Massachusetts    28,197
  39. Wisconsin    27,943
  40. Nebraska    25,229
  41. Mississippi    22,189
  42. West Virginia    17,294
  43. Connecticut    15,838
  44. South Dakota    11,494
  45. North Dakota    11,487
  46. Maine    11,054
  47. New Hampshire    8,996
  48. Delaware    5,613
  49. Vermont    4,631
  50. Rhode Island    4,351
  51. District of Columbia    3,168
     

Sunday, May 14, 2023

Country-by-Country Membership Statistics Released for 2022

The Church has released year-end 2022 membership and congregation totals for most nations with a reported Church presence. These statistics can be accessed on Church's official website at https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/facts-and-statistics. Only Samoa and Russia were omitted from the analysis below because either membership data were not reported for year-end 2021 (Russia) or the Church had not updated its membership figure for 2021 (Samoa) and consequently it is unclear how much membership increased for the year 2022.

Countries with the highest annual membership growth rates for 2022 are listed below. Lists for nations with the most rapid annual membership growth rates are also available for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019. A list of the biennial membership growth rates for countries between year-end 2019 to year-end 2021 can be found here. The percentage next to the country name for the list below is the annual membership growth rate for 2022. Countries in bold experienced a membership increase greater than 200 during 2022

  1. Burundi - 50.7% - 1,240
  2. Rwanda - 36.9% -1,154
  3. Tanzania - 29.9% - 2,999
  4. Mozambique - 18.6% - 18,443
  5. Benin - 17.7% - 5,606
  6. Republic of the Congo - 16.1% - 11,481
  7. Iceland - 15.4% - 382
  8. Democratic Republic of the Congo - 15.4% - 102,862
  9. Turkey - 14.8% - 658
  10. Angola - 14.4% - 4,760
  11. Liberia - 14.1% - 20,335
  12. Cameroon - 13.0% - 2,721
  13. Kazakhstan - 11.7% - 229
  14. Namibia - 11.2% - 1,110
  15. Sierra Leone - 10.6% - 28,867
  16. Bahrain - 10.5% - 252
  17. Dominica - 10.3% - 160

The following is a list of the top ten countries with the highest negative membership growth rates (i.e., fastest rate of membership decline) during 2022. The percent growth rate is provided next to the country name, and the number to the right of the percentage growth rate is the year-end 2022 membership total for the country.

  1. Ukraine - -7.8% - 10,344
  2. Singapore - -2.9% - 3,202
  3. Isle of Man - -2.4% - 281
  4. Republic of Georgia - -2.3% - 252
  5. Federated States of Micronesia - -2.3% - 5,966
  6. Marshall Islands - -2.1% - 6,832
  7. Netherlands - -1.9% - 9,185
  8. Cook Islands - -1.6% - 1,862
  9. Slovakia - -1.3% - 305
  10. Martinique - -1.1% - 258

Below is a list of the top ten countries by numerical membership net increase for 2022. Each country is provided with the numerical national increase in membership for the year. Additionally, the percentage of total church membership increase that is accounted for by each country is provided (i.e., a percentage of the world membership increase for 2022 that is within that country). Lists are also available for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019. A list of the biennial period of 2020-2021 is also available. 65.3% of the 2022 net increase in Church membership can be attributed to the following 10 nations.

  1. United States - 41,009 - 20.8%
  2. Philippines - 20,209 - 10.3%
  3. Brazil - 16,283 - 8.3%
  4. Democratic Republic of the Congo - 13,726 - 7.0% 
  5. Nigeria - 9,953 - 5.1%
  6. Mexico - 9,424 - 4.8%
  7. Peru - 5,530 - 2.8%
  8. Ghana - 5,416 - 2.7%
  9. Bolivia - 3,699 - 1.9%
  10. Ecuador - 3,453 - 1.8%

Below is a list of the top ten countries by numerical membership decrease for the biennial period of 2020-2021. Each country is provided with the numerical national decrease in membership for this two-year period. There were only six countries that experienced a net decreased by 100 or more during 2022.

  1. Ukraine - -872
  2. Hong Kong - -248
  3. Puerto Rico - -230
  4. Netherlands - -180
  5. Marshall Islands --145
  6. Federated States of Micronesia - -141

ANALYSIS OF COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY MEMBERSHIP FIGURES FOR 2022

Here is an analysis of these numbers:

First, annual membership growth rates significantly accelerated for many countries where the Church has historically experienced rapid membership growth in comparison to not only during 2020-2021 but also during 2019, 2018, and 2017. This indicates that annual membership growth rates have not only returned to previous levels prior to the COVID-19 pandemic in many of the nations where the Church usually reports its most rapid growth, but that membership growth rates have actually increased since prior to the pandemic. In 2019, there were only 11 countries where church membership increased by 10% or more during the year (and only 11 in 2018 and 13 in 2017), whereas there were 17 countries where church membership increased by 10% or more during 2022. There were also three countries which had an annual membership growth rate of 20% or more during 2022 (all of which had over 1,000 members by the end of the year), whereas in 2019 there were only two countries that had an annual membership growth rate of more than 20% (and one of these had only 36 members at the end of the year). Even more impressive, there were only two countries with 10,000 or more members in 2019 where the annual membership growth rate was at least 10% during the year (Mozambique and the DR Congo), whereas there were five countries with 10,000 or more members in 2022 that had an annual membership growth rate of 10% or more during the year (Mozambique, the Republic of the Congo, the DR Congo, Liberia, and Sierra Leone). The last year there were at least five countries with at least 10,000 members when annual membership growth rates exceeded 10% for the year was in 2014 (and the countries where Cote d'Ivoire, Sierra Leone, the DR Congo, Cape Verde, and Nigeria). To put this into perspective, there were some years in the 2000s (such as 2007 and 2008) when there were no countries with at least 10,000 membership that had an annual membership growth rate of at least 10%. Moreover, this also marks the first time in 30 years since the Church has achieved an annual membership growth rate of 10% of higher in a country (i.e., the DR Congo) where there are at least 100,000 members (the last time this occurred was in Ecuador in 1992-1993). 

Second, Africa stands out as the world region where the majority of the most rapid membership growth occurs. Of the 17 countries that had an annual membership growth rate of 10% or more, 12 were in Africa. Also, all five countries outside of Africa where Church membership increased by 10% or more have fewer than 1,000 members. In Africa, the countries that have stood as consistent high performers for rapid membership growth rates in the past decade include Angola, Benin, the DR Congo, Liberia, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Sierra Leone. Outside of Africa, there are few countries that regularly have annual membership growth rates of 10% or more (and nearly all of these have very few members), but these nations include Turkey, the Solomon Islands (which experienced stagnant growth in 2022 primarily due to no missionaries assigned to the country), and Tuvalu (which also experienced stagnant growth in 2022, although it is unclear whether this may be because the membership figure was not updated since it is identical for 2021).

Third, membership growth is becoming more equalized among countries in the world than it used to be. In 2008, 77% of membership growth in the worldwide Church occurred just in 10 countries (the United States, Brazil, Mexico, Philippines, Peru, Argentina, Chile, Honduras, Guatemala, and Colombia). However, only 65% of membership growth in the worldwide Church occurred in the 10 countries with the highest net increases in Church membership during the year 2022. A more distributed membership growth dynamic has been a function of two processes: 1. Countries the most members have experienced decelerating growth and 2. some countries with small to medium size membership are growing at the same rate of more rapidly. For example, the Church in Mexico (country with the second most members) reported its slowest annual membership growth rate (0.63%) in over 70 years in 2022, and the Church in Brazil (country with the third most members) reported one of its slowest membership growth rates ever (1.1%) in 2022.

Fourth, countries with annual membership growth rates of 5.0-9.9% generally follow the same trends as countries with 10% or more annual membership growth. In 2022, there were 16 countries where membership growth increased within this rage of which 11 were in Africa. The countries that were not in Africa included Malta (9.4% annual membership growth rate), Cyprus (9.4%), Israel (8.0%), Montenegro (6.7%), and Guernsey (5.3%) - all of which had fewer than 1,000 members. Most of these nations have previously ranked among countries with the most rapid membership growth rates in the past 15 years, albeit these nations also often have wide fluctuations in growth (including decline). 

Fifth, annual membership growth rates in the United States slightly increased in 2022 compared to recent years. Membership in the United States increased by 0.61% in 2022, whereas the Church reported an increase of 0.62% for the two-year period including 2020 and 2021 (suggesting the annual membership growth rate was likely around 0.30% for these years assuming the rate of growth was constant during that time). Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Church reported annual membership growth rates of 0.59% in 2019 and 0.60% in 2018. Annual membership growth rates in the United States remain far below previous years which averaged 1.0-1.5% in the early to mid 2010s and 1.5-2.0% in the 1990s and 2000s. 

Sixth, there were several "anomaly" countries where membership growth trends in 2022 were significantly different than what has been typically seen in recent years. Here are a few of some of the notable examples I found browsing the data. In Spain, the annual membership growth rate (3.37%) was the highest reported by the Church since 2010. This is an impressive development considering the Church in most of Europe experiences essentially stagnant growth (or slight decline). In Kenya, the Church also reported its most rapid membership growth (9.6%) seen since 2010. In Burundi, Church membership increased by approximately 50% - the most rapid growth seen since 2013. In Ukraine, the Church reported a significant decline of 7.8% which was caused primarily by Ukrainian Latter-day Saints leaving the country due to the war. The Church published figures for the number of members in Russia as of year-end 2022 - the first time this has been done since 2017 when there were 23,252 members. However, the Church reported a mere 4,995 members as of year-end 2022. It is unclear whether this may be a reporting error or if this may reflect a mass exodus of Russian Latter-day Saints to other nations. However, this figure may be accurate given scores of congregations have closed in Russia since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In Iceland, membership increased by 15.4% - the highest reported since 2001 (albeit, to put this into perspective, there were only 382 members on the records for Iceland as of year-end 2022).