Sunday, April 16, 2023

New Temples Announced in April 2023 - Part III: Europe and North America

Hamburg Germany Temple

The Hamburg Germany Temple is the Church's third temple in Germany following the Freiberg Germany Temple (dedicated in 1985) and the Frankfurt Germany Temple (dedicated in 1987). The new temple will likely service only two stakes located in northern Germany. A third stake (Neumünster Germany Stake) used to operate in northern Germany, but the stake was closed in 2018 and consolidated with the Hamburg Germany Stake. The two stakes in northern Germany are now quite large in terms of the number of units and the geographical areas they cover (9 wards and 6 branches in the Hamburg Germany Stake, 7 wards and 5 branches in the Hannover Germany Stake). Moreover, one branch in the Hamburg Germany Stake recently became a ward. The Church has maintained a presence in Hamburg since 1852, and the Hamburg Germany Stake was organized in 1961. Stagnant growth has occurred for the Church in northern Germany for many decades. The Hamburg area is currently assigned to the Frankfurt Germany Temple which is an approximately 4-5 hour drive one way. There are approximately 40,000 Latter-day Saints in Germany. I added Hamburg to the less likely locations for a temple announcement in February 2023.

Lethbridge Alberta Temple

The Lethbridge Alberta Temple is the Church's fourth temple in Alberta following the Cardston Alberta Temple (dedicated in 1923), the Edmonton Alberta Temple (dedicated in 1999), and the Calgary Alberta Temple (dedicated in 2012). The new temple will likely service 8-9 stakes in southern Alberta, thereby greatly decreasing the size of the Cardston Alberta Temple district to perhaps as few as two stakes. The decision to announce a temple in Lethbridge was likely heavily influenced by improving accessibility to members who live in the four Lethbridge stakes. Lethbridge is a one-hour drive from Cardston. The new temple will also reduce the drive time to the temple for members other stakes nearby Lethbridge such as in Raymond, Taber, and Medicine Hat. The Church most recently organized a stake in Lethbridge in 2017 (a young single adult stake). The first stake was created in Lethbridge in 1951. Slow growth has occurred in southern Alberta for many decades. Lethbridge and nearby areas are assigned to the Cardston Alberta Temple district. There are nearly 200,000 Latter-day Saints in Canada. I added Lethbridge to the less likely locations for a temple announcement in February 2023.

San Jose California Temple

The San Jose California Temple is the Church's 11th temple to be built in California following the Los Angeles California Temple (dedicated in 1956), the Oakland California Temple (dedicated in 1964), the San Diego California Temple (dedicated in 1993), the Fresno California Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Redlands California Temple (dedicated in 2003), the Newport Beach California Temple (dedicated in 2005), the Sacramento California Temple (dedicated in 2006), the Feather River California Temple (announced in 2018 and scheduled for dedicate in late 2023), the Yorba Linda California Temple (announced in 2021), and the Modesto California Temple (announced in April 2022). The new temple will likely include nine stakes located in the San Jose area and south to Monterey. The first stake in the San Jose area was organized in 1946. The California San Jose Mission was organized in 1978. Steady decline has occurred in the San Jose area as several stakes have been discontinued within the past few decades. San Jose was one of the most populous metropolitan areas in the United States without a temple prior to the announcement. San Jose is approximately one hour away (in good traffic) from the Oakland California Temple where stakes in the San Jose area are currently assigned to attend. There were nearly 730,000 Latter-day Saints in California as of year-end 2022.

Bakersfield California Temple

The Bakersfield California Temple will be the Church's 12th temple in California. I have included Bakersfield on my more likely list of temple announcements for many years due to its distance from the Los Angeles California Temple (usually a 1.5-2.5 hour drive one way) which is the temple assigned for stakes in the Bakersfield area. The new temple will probably include six stakes - three of which are based in Bakersfield. The Church's first stake in Bakersfield was organized in 1951. The Church in Bakersfield has experienced very slow growth in the past two decades, and there have been only 1-2 congregations that have closed in the area within the past 15 years. The Church organized the California Bakersfield Mission in 2013.

Springfield Missouri Temple

The Springfield Missouri Temple is the Church's third temple in Missouri following the St. Louis Missouri Temple (dedicated in 1997) and the Kansas City Missouri Temple (dedicated in 2012). The new temple will likely service six stakes in southwestern Missouri. There are two stakes in Springfield (organized in 1973 and 1995) which appear likely to divide to create a third stake in the near future. Significant growth has occurred in this area of Missouri in the past 1-2 decades, and two of the six stakes in the area were organized in 2013 and 2014. Stakes in the area are currently assigned to the Kansas City Missouri Temple (an approximately three hour drive one way), although these stakes will likely be reassigned to the Bentonville Arkansas Temple when it is dedicated in September 2023 (a two hour drive one way). More than 75,000 Latter-day Saints live in Missouri. I added Springfield to the less likely locations for a temple announcement in February 2023.

Winchester Virginia Temple

The Winchester Virginia Temple is the Church's second temple in Virginia following the Richmond Virginia Temple (announced in 2018 and scheduled for dedication in May 2023). The announcement of a temple in Winchester came as a total shock to me given there are only two stakes in the area, and it is only approximately 1.5-2.0 hours by car from Winchester to the Washington DC Temple in Maryland. The one stake in Winchester was organized in 1977. The second stake likely to be assigned to the new temple is the Martinsburg West Virginia Stake which was organized in 2014. More than 97,000 Latter-day Saints live in Virginia.

Charlotte North Carolina Temple

The Charlotte North Carolina Temple is the Church's second temple in North Carolina following the Raleigh North Carolina Temple (dedicated in 1999). The new temple will likely include nine stakes - five of which are based in the Charlotte metropolitan area. Charlotte has numbered among the most likely locations to have a temple announced given a sizable number of stakes in the area that are 1.5-3.0 hours from temples in Raleigh and Columbia, South Carolina. The Church has experienced significant growth in the Charlotte area. The first stake in the city was organized in 1972 followed by additional stakes in 1986, 2006, 2018, and 2022. There were more than 94,000 Latter-day Saints in North Carolina as of year-end 2022.

Harrisburg Pennsylvania Temple

The Harrisburg Pennsylvania Temple is the Church's third temple in Pennsylvania followed by temples in Philadelphia (dedicated in 2016) and Pittsburgh (announced in 2020 and under construction). The new temple will likely service six stakes in central Pennsylvania. The oldest stake in the area was organized in 1979, whereas the newest stake was created in Gettysburg in 2021. Slow growth has occurred in the Harrisburg area where a mission used to operate until 2009. Stakes in the Harrisburg area pertain to the Philadelphia Pennsylvania Temple which is an approximately 2.0-2.5 hours one way by car. I added Harrisburg to the less likely locations for temple announcements in February 2023. There are approximately 52,000 Latter-day Saints in Pennsylvania.

New Temples Announced in April 2023 - Part II: Asia

Tuguegarao City Philippines Temple

The Tuguegarao City Philippines Temple is the Church's 11th temple in the Philippines following temples in Manila (dedicated in 1984), Cebu (dedicated in 2010), Urdaneta (announced in 2010), Alabang (announced in 2017), Cagayan de Oro (announced in 2018), Davao (announced in 2018), Bacolod City (announced in 2019), Tacloban City (announced in 2021), Naga (announced in October 2022), and Santiago (announced in October 2022). The new temple will likely service at least three stakes and two districts located in the lower Cauayan River valley, although it is possible the new temple may include an additional four stakes and two districts located on the northwestern tip of Luzon Island. Some stakes and a district in the upper Cauayan River valley may also be assigned to the new temple, although these stakes and this district are nearly equidistant between Tuguegarao and Santiago (where a temple was announced in October 2022). Steady growth has occurred in Tuguegarao City and in nearby cities during the past couple decades. Of the three stakes in the area, two of these stakes were organized in 2011 and 2019. The first stake was created in Tuguegarao in 1989. The first branch in Tuguegarao was created in 1980. There are only two stakes in Tuguegarao City. Currently, stakes in the Tuguegarao area are assigned to the Manila Philippines Temple district, although the area will be reassigned to the Urdaneta Philippines Temple (approximately a 7 hour drive) once it is completed likely sometime within the next 6-12 months. The Church reported more than 850,000 members in the Philippines as of year-end 2022.

Iloilo Philippines Temple

The Iloilo Philippines Temple is the Church's 12th temple in the Philippines. This marks the second time in Church history in the Philippines when two temples were announced on the same day (the first time occurred in October 2022). The new temple will likely service the five stakes and one district on Panay Island and the one district on Guimaras Island. There are three stakes in Iloilo City - one of which was organized in February 2023. The first stake was created in Iloilo City in 1985. The Church has generally experienced slow growth on Panay island. The first branch in Iloilo City was created in 1969. The Church organized the Philippines Iloilo Mission in 2010. Stakes and districts in the Philippines Iloilo Mission currently pertain to the Cebu City Philippines Temple district.

Jakarta Indonesia Temple

The Jakarta Indonesia Temple is the Church's first temple to be announced for Indonesia. Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world with approximately 280 million people. There are approximately 7,500 Latter-day Saints, two stakes, and one district in Indonesia. Approximately 90% or more of Church membership in Indonesia is located on Java. The Jakarta Indonesia Stake was organized in 2011 and currently has 10 wards, whereas the Surakarta Indonesia Stake was organized in 2012 and currently has six wards and one branch. The Surabaya Indonesia District was organized in 1978 and has three branches. The Church in Indonesia has experienced very slow growth for several consecutive decades, although rapid membership and congregational growth initially occurred in the 1970s. The first branch in Indonesia was created in Jakarta in 2010. The Indonesia Jakarta Mission was first organized in 1975. Limited numbers of visas available for foreign full-time missionaries, a lack of a Church presence in more Christian areas of Indonesia, and decreasing numbers of native Indonesians serving full-time missions have all contributed to slow growth rates and essentially stagnant congregational growth that has persisted for decades.

Saturday, April 15, 2023

March 2023 Monthly Newsletter

 Click here to access the March 2023 monthly newsletter for cumorah.com.

Sunday, April 9, 2023

New Temples Announced in April 2023 - Part I: Latin America

Retalhuleu Guatemala Temple

The Retalhuleu Guatemala Temple is the Church's sixth temple announced for Guatemala following temples in Guatemala City (dedicated in 1984), Quetzaltenango (dedicated in 2011), Cobán (announced in 2019), Miraflores Guatemala City (announced in 2020), and Huehuetenango (announced in October 2022). Retalhuleu was added to the Potential New Temples map in February 2023. The new temple will likely service five stakes and one district, and one stake (Mazatenango) appears likely to divide in the near future as there are 11 wards and 2 branches in this stake (a second stake used to operate in Mazatenango from 1998 to 2008). Stakes in the area have experienced stagnant congregational growth with no appreciable numbers of new congregations being created or congregations being closed. The new temple will likely be a small temple given there are few stakes in the area. The Church created the Guatemala Retalhuleu Mission in 2010. The most recently organized stake in the likely new temple district was created in 1999 in Retalhuleu. The first stake in Retalhuleu was organized in 1980. Stakes in the Retalhuleu area are currently assigned to the Quetzaltenango Guatemala Temple (dedicated in 2011) which is a 90-minute drive from Retalhuleu. The Church reported 287,000 members in Guatemala as of year-end 2022.

Iquitos Peru Temple

Iquitos has been a location that has long been on the Potential New Temples map due to its remote location and three stakes in the city. The Iquitos Peru Temple is the Church's seventh temple in Peru following temples in Lima (dedicated in 1986), Trujillo (dedicated in 2015), Lima Los Olivos (announced in 2016), Arequipa (dedicated in 2019), Cusco (announced in April 2022), and Chiclayo (announced in October 2022). The new temple will likely service at least the three stakes in Iquitos which were organized in 1980, 1992, and 1995. Slow growth has occurred in the Peruvian Amazon in recent years, although two districts have advanced into stakes within the past several years. New congregations have been organized in recent years in Iquitos and Pucallpa. The Church used to operate two additional stakes in Iquitos (organized in 1985 and 1995) that were both discontinued in 1998. Currently, one of the stakes in Iquitos (Iquitos Peru Nueve de Octubre) appears likely to divide as there are 10 wards and 1 branch in the stake. It is also possible the new temple may service the two stakes up the Ucayali River in the city of Pucallpa and a stake and a district in San Martin Region. The Church created the Peru Iquitos Mission in 2013. Stakes in the Peruvian Amazon are currently assigned to the Lima Peru Temple. The Church reported 630,000 members in Peru as of year-end 2022.

Teresina Brazil Temple

The Teresina Brazil Temple is the Church's 19th temple in Brazil following temples in São Paulo (dedicated in 1978), Recife (dedicated in 2000), Porto Alegre (dedicated in 2000), Campinas (dedicated in 2002), Curitiba (dedicated in 2008), Manaus (dedicated in 2012), Fortaleza (dedicated in 2019), Rio de Janeiro (dedicated in 2022), Belem (dedicated in 2022), Brasília (announced in 2017, dedication scheduled for September 2023), Salvador (announced in 2018), São Paulo Brazil East (announced in 2020), Belo Horizonte (announced in April 2021), Vitória (announced in October 2021), Maceió (announced in April 2022), Santos (announced in April 2022), Londrina (announced in October 2022), and Riberão Prêto (announced in October 2022). The new temple will likely service seven stakes and two districts in the Brazilian states of Maranhão and Piauí. Steady growth has occurred in Teresina where the first stake was organized in 1993 followed by additional stakes organized in 2005 and 2016. Stakes in Teresina are currently assigned to the Fortaleza Brazil Temple which is an 8-hour drive one way, whereas stakes in Maranhão are assigned to the Belem Brazil Temple. The Church has regularly organized new congregations in Maranhão and Piauí. The Church organized the Brazil Teresina Mission in 2009. The Church reported nearly 1.5 million members in Brazil as of year-end 2022.

Natal Brazil Temple

The Natal Brazil Temple is the Church's 20th temple in Brazil. The announcement of the new temple marks the third time in Church history in Brazil when two temples were announced on the same day (the other such instances occurred in April 2022 and October 2022). The new temple will likely service the six stakes and one district in Rio Grande do Norte State. The Church has four stakes in Natal which were organized in 1992, 1998, and 2006 (2). The Church has had fluctuating growth rates in Rio Grande do Norte State during the past couple days, as some years have had rapid growth, whereas the Church has experienced slow or stagnant growth for other years. Stakes in Rio Grande do Norte are currently assigned to the Recife Brazil Temple except for the Mossoró Brazil Stake which is assigned to the Fortaleza Brazil Temple. The Brazil Natal Mission was organized in 2013.

Sunday, April 2, 2023

15 New Temples Announced

Today, President Russell M. Nelson announced plans to construct new temples in 15 cities. These cities include:

  • Retalhuleu, Guatemala
  • Iquitos, Peru
  • Teresina, Brazil
  • Natal, Brazil
  • Tuguegarao City, Philippines
  • Iloilo, Philippines
  • Jakarta, Indonesia
  • Hamburg, Germany
  • Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada
  • San Jose, California
  • Bakersfield, California
  • Springfield, Missouri
  • Winchester, Virginia
  • Charlotte, North Carolina
  • Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

With today's announcement, there are now 315 temples that are planned, under construction, or dedicated in the Church.

In the coming days, I will provide additional posts that conduct an analysis of each new temple announced.

Saturday, April 1, 2023

2022 Statisical Report

This afternoon, the Church reported its annual statistical report as of December 31st, 2022.

  • Membership: 17,002,461 (increase of 197,061 from 2021; a 1.17% annual increase)
  • Congregations: 31,330 (increase of 15 from 2021; a 0.048% annual increase)
  • Stakes: 3,521 (increase of 23 from 2021; a 0.66% annual increase)
  • Districts: 517 (decrease of 3 from 2021; a 0.58% annual decrease)
  • Missions: 411 (increase of 4 from 2020; a 0.98% annual increase)
  • Convert Baptisms: 212,172 (increase of 43,889 from 2021; a 26.1% annual increase)
  • Increase of Children on Record: 89,059 (decrease of 10 from 2021; a 0.01% annual decrease)
  • Full-time missionaries: 62,544 (increase of 8,005 from 2021; a 14.7% annual increase)
  • Church service missionaries: 29,806 (decrease of 6,833 from 2021; a 18.6% annual decrease)

For the first time, the Church has broken down church service missionaries from young church-service missionaries and senior church-service missionaries. The number of young church-service missionaries was 2,736, whereas the number of senior church-service missionaries was 27,070. 

Several observations with the 2022 Statistical Report.

First, the annual membership growth rate exceed 1% for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Church membership increased by 1.17% during 2022 which was only 0.04% less that the Church's annual membership growth rate in 2018. Thus, annual membership growth rates have returned to the approximate rates seen during the few years prior to the pandemic, although this still remains slightly lower than pre-COVID levels as annual membership growth rates were 1.54% in 2019 1.48% in 2017. Also, the discrepancy in the summation of converts baptized and children under age 8 added to church records and actual net increase in church membership was 104,170 - a typical number for this statistic during the past 10 years. This statistic indicates that the number of deaths, excommunications (loss of membership), resignations, and removal of unbaptized children of record ages 9 and older has remained static during the past 10 years despite church membership increasing from 14.8 million to 17.0 million.

Second, there was a large increase in convert baptisms in 2022 relative to the years 2021 and 2022. The year 2022 was the first time the number of converts baptized exceeded 200,000 since 2019 when there were 248,835 converts baptized. The difference between the number of convert baptisms in 2022 and the number of convert baptisms in 2021 was 43,889 - a slightly larger number than the difference in convert baptisms in 2021 versus the number of convert baptisms in 2020 which was 42,353. The annual number of convert baptisms in 2022 (212,172) has nearly recovered to pre-COVID levels, although the lowest year for the number of convert baptisms (2017) was still nearly 20,000 more than what was seen in 2022.

Third, the annual increase in children of record (i.e., the number of children added to church records who are too young to be baptized - usually a measurement of infants born and blessed during the year) was essentially unchanged for the year 2022 compared to 2021. The Church experienced a significant decrease in this statistic prior the COVID-19 pandemic which dropped from 122,273 in 2012 to 94,266 in 2019. A mere 65,440 children under age 8 were added to church records in 2020 - a statistic that appears attributed to fewer births during the year and members postponing baby blessings when these records are oftentimes created. The encouraging aspect of the 2022 figure for the increase in children of record is that this number has stabilized since the COVID-19 pandemic, and that the figure for 2021 was not artificially higher due to postponed baby blessings which would have likely occurred in 2020 if there were no restrictions associated with the pandemic (in other words - seems unlikely the 2022 figure may be higher due to postponed baby blessings that should have occurred in 2020 or 2021 since there were few or no church meeting/health restrictions for most areas of the world during 2022 and for a good part of 2021 that would result in most members delaying baby blessings). 

Fourth, there was a significant increase in the number of full-time missionaries serving in 2022 (62,544) compared to 2021 (54,539) or 2020 (51,819). The Church reported 58,990 full-time missionaries at year-end 2012 which was a few months after the Church officially lowered its minimum age for full-time missionary service from 19 to 18 for men and 21 to 19 for women. Because of this change, there was a double-cohort of missionaries serving (i.e., those who planned to serve at the original previous minimum ages, those who decided to serve earlier than planned with the revised minimum age, those who decided to serve a mission when the minimum age was announced but who were not previously considering missionary service). As a result, the number of full-time missionaries mushroomed to an all-time annual high of 85,147 in 2014, but this statistic returned to a low of 65,137 in 2018. As of year-end 2019, the Church reported 67,021 full-time missionaries serving. Although the number of full-time missionaries serving remains below pre-COVID level in the late 2010s of approximately 65,000-70,000, the number of full-time missionaries is approaching these levels at an accelerated pace compared to 2021. 

Fifth, the Church reported an unusually low year for both the growth in the number of stakes and official congregations (i.e., wards and branches). The net increase in the number of wards and branches was a mere 15 for 2022 - the lowest net increase in wards and branches seen since 1953 when there was a net decline of 35 wards and branches. Years with unusually small net increases in wards and branches are not atypical in the present-day Church. For example, there was a net increase of a mere 30 wards and branches in 2018, and there was a net increase of 59 wards and branches in 2002. These years have been associated with a combination of significant congregation consolidations in one of more countries with a major church presence and few new congregations being created. In 2022, there was an unusually large number of wards that were discontinued in the United States, whereas there were relatively few new congregations created elsewhere in the world. Reports from members in many countries where high numbers of new congregations are usually created have indicated that there was often an emphasis on strengthening wards and branches, and that some congregations have not returned to pre-COVID levels in terms of church attendance (particularly in West Africa where many members have joined in the Church in the past 5-10 years). The abnormally low year in 2018 was primarily due to widespread congregation consolidations in Mexico, whereas the abnormally low year in 2002 was primarily due to widespread congregation consolidations in Latin America such as Chile. The net increase in the number of stakes in 2022 (23) was the lowest seen since 2003 when there was a net increase of 22 stakes. Relatively few new stakes have been organized since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, including a net increase of only 26 stakes in 2020 and 35 stakes in 2021. It has been common for stake creations to have almost a cyclical pattern of 3-6 years of more rapid growth followed by 3-6 years of slower growth. 

Trends in mission and district growth were unremarkable for 2022. 

Finally, there was a significant decline (18.6%) in the number of church-service missionaries in 2022 - 92% of whom were senior missionaries. I am not sure why this statistic declined so significantly in 2022, but this is a metric that often has much variability. Typically, the number of church-service missionaries has vacillated between 30,000 and 36,000 since 2014.