The End of Growth? Fading Prospects for Latter-day Saint Expansion

David Stewart, a colleague of mine who has collaborated on research regarding the growth and missionary program of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints at cumorah.com, recently published an article in the Journal of the Mormon Social Science Association entitled: The End of Growth? Fading Prospects for Latter-day Saint Expansion. The article can be accessed here. This article masterfully chronicles declining growth rates in the Church during the past several decades and identifies institutional and societal factors that appear primarily responsible for lackluster growth rates.

Request for Information/Feedback - Claims that the Church is Not Growing

I am currently writing an essay about common arguments made by Ex-Mormons and Anti-Mormons that the Church is not growing or in decline. If you have heard any of these arguments, please comment below. I want to make sure I am not missing any of the major ones. Thanks!

Is the LDS Church Growing?

I am frequently asked by interested readers, news media, and personal contacts whether the LDS Church is actually growing or not. This is a complex question to answer in regards to what measurements are examined, the analysis of growth trends over time, and whether growth is examined in a specific area or for the Church as a whole. The following will provide an overview of the most salient findings that suggest the worldwide Church is growing, or experiencing stagnation or decline. A previous analysis from 2012 can be found here.

Here are some statistics that indicate the Church is growing:

• Increases in the number of countries with stakes: 
• Since 2010, there have been 20 countries where the Church has organized its first stake. There has never been a time in LDS history when as many countries have had their first stakes organized within as short of a period of time.
• Increases in the number of countries assigned to missions:
• The number of countries assigned to missions has steadily increased since 2010. Examples of countries assigned to missions during this time include Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Gabon, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Macedonia, Montenegro, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
• Increases in the worldwide number of active members:
• Although no official statistics are available, the number of active members in the Church has appeared to steadily increase within recent years as evidenced by the organization of new stakes and congregations. A recent article in the Salt Lake Tribute quotes a church spokesman who notes that "upward growth has continued."
• Steady increases in the worldwide number of stakes:
• Stake growth has not only been sustained in recent years, but it has accelerated. The number of new stakes organized totaled 48 in 2013, 64 in 2014, 67 in 2015, and 80 thus far in 2016. The annual percentage growth rate for stakes has also increased from 1.5% in 2013 to at least 2.5% in 2016.
• Steady increases in the worldwide number of temples:
• The number of temples announced, under construction, or in operation continues to increase. For example, there were 102 operating temples at year-end 2000. There will be 155 operating temples by year-end 2016.
• Increases in the number of nations with full-time missionaries assigned:
• Many countries have had young, full-time missionaries assigned for the first time since 2010. Notable examples include Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burma (Myanmar), Burundi (until mid-2015 when missionaries were removed due to civil unrest), Gabon, Kosovo, Laos, Macedonia, Montenegro, Rwanda, and Turkey.
• Increases in the number of cities with an LDS presence:
• The Church has organized new congregations in previously unreached cities at a more rapid rate than the number of cities where the only LDS congregation has closed. 
• Improvements in commensurate membership and congregational growth:
•  Membership and congregational growth rates for the worldwide church have become more proportional. Congregational growth was a mere 1/5 the rate of membership growth in 2011, whereas congregational growth was 4/5 the rate of membership growth in 2015. This finding signals improvements in convert retention and member activity.

Here are some statistics that indicate LDS growth is stagnant or declining:

• Slow congregational growth rates for the worldwide Church:
• Congregational growth rates have been very slow for the Church as a whole, ranging from 0.4-1.3% within the past eight years. As the world's population currently grows by 1.08% a year, it appears that the Church's congregational growth in comparison to the world's population growth has been nearly equal during this time. 
• Steady net decreases in the number of districts:
• The number of districts has declined every year since 2009. The number of districts has decreased from 622 in 2008 to approximately 551 at present. As district growth is a strong indicator of the expansion of the Church into lesser-reached areas, this finding suggests a slowdown in the expansion of the Church into additional areas.
• Decrease in the percentage of full-time missionaries in general church membership
• The percentage of full-time missionaries among general church membership declined from 0.64% in 1977 to 0.37% in 2010, and increased to 0.47% in 2015.
• No noticeable change in the number of converts baptized a year
• The Church has reported essentially no significant change in the number of converts baptized each year. The Church has baptized an average of 277,000 converts a year since 2010. To contrast, the Church baptized an average of 287,000 converts a year between 1988 and 2009. The average number of converts baptized per missionary declined from 8.0 in 1989 to approximately 5.0 in 2011 and 3.5 in 2015.
• Stagnant increases with the number of children of record
• The increase of children of record has not significantly increased over the past 35 years. The Church reported an increase of 124,000 children of record in 1982 - more than any year since this time. The Church has generally reported an annual increase of children of record between 110,000-120,000 since 2008.
• Decreasing membership growth rates
• The Church's annual membership growth rate has steadily declined within the past 15 years from 2.9% in 2000 to 2.3% in 2003, 2.0% in 2013, and 1.7% in 2015. 
• Lack of growth in seminary and institute enrollment
• Seminary and institute enrollment has fluctuated from approximately 700,000 to 760,000 within the past 15 years despite an increase of more than four million members during this period.
• Decrease in the number of MTCs:
• The Church has reported a net decrease in the number of missionary training centers during the past 20 years. MTCs have closed in Japan, Korea, Samoa, and Tonga.
• Decrease in the number of church areas:
• The Church has reported a net decrease in administrative areas from 30 in 2003 to 25 in 2012.

Is the LDS (Mormon) Church Growing?

One of the most frequent questions I receive from interested readers and journalists is whether or not the LDS Church is currently growing.  I believe that the Church is slowly growing on a worldwide scale and there are several statistical figures to back this claim, but that there is no straightforward to-the-point answer to this complex question.  Some areas of the world experience strong growth such as Africa and some areas of East Asia whereas other areas experience stagnation or even slight decline.  Furthermore there are some statistical measures that suggest the Church is currently in a period of stagnation where there is neither growth nor decline.

Below are some statistics that indicate that the Church is growing.

• Increase in Membership: The Church counts baptized members and children on record (children under age eight within LDS families) on official church membership totals.  In 2011, worldwide membership increased by 309,879 and grew at a rate of 2.19%.  Within the past decade the Church has added 304,682 members a year on average.  Year-end 2011 membership totals were 14,441,346.  Membership statistics provide no insight into activity rates and whether nominal members affiliate as Latter-day Saints.
• Increase in Congregations: Congregations require certain numbers of active members to operate and divide to create new congregations once a single ward or branch can longer effectively administer an area.  New congregations can also signify expansion of the Church into new areas where no congregation previously functioned.  In 2011, the number of wards and branches increased by 124 or 0.43%.  Within the past decade the number of congregations increased by 261 a year on average.
• Increase in Stakes: Like congregations, stakes require certain numbers of active members to operate and an increase in the number of stakes suggests an increase in active membership.  In 2011, the number of stakes increased by 50, or 1.73%.  The number of stakes increased by 33 a year on average within the past decade.
• Increase in Temples: General Authorities have indicated that the construction of new temples is warranted when church membership in a given area is determined adequate to staff and utilize a temple.  Temples also require more mature and seasoned church membership to provide needed personnel to properly operate.  In 2011, the Church announced nine new temples bringing the total number of temples operating, under construction, or announced to 166.

Below are some statistics that suggest the Church is experiencing stagnation.

• Number of Full-Time Missionaries Serving: There remain fewer members serving full-time missions at present than 10 years ago.  In 2011, there were 55,410 members serving full-time missions worldwide; approximately 6,000 fewer than in 2002.  A growing church would suggest a steady annual increase in the number of members serving as full-time missionaries but a variety of factors have contributed to a decline in the number of full-time missionaries such as increased standards for full-time missionary service, convert retention problems for youth converts outside the United States, and the increasing influence of secularism on LDS populations in the United States.  A slight reduction in the number of missionary training centers (MTCs) worldwide over the past decade also suggests stagnation as a growing church would need to increase the number of MTCs worldwide to accommodate a growing number of members serving full-time missions.
• Number of Cities Opening to Proselytism: Notwithstanding nearly 29,000 wards and branches worldwide, the Church in recent years only opens a few dozen new cities to proselytism a year.  I have not completed an extensive analysis of the number of cities closed versus opened to proselytism year-to-year, but I would estimate that these numbers would nearly equal one another.  A growing church would suggest a steady increase in new cities opened to proselytism notwithstanding some locations closing to missionary activity and wards or branches consolidating with neighboring units.
• Membership Growth Outpacing Congregational Growth: The worldwide Church has experienced an increase in the average number of members per unit over the past decade from 437 members per ward or branch to 502 members per ward or branch.  The influence of branches (smaller congregations) maturing into wards (larger congregations) on this statistic appears minimal.  Rather, low convert retention rates appear the primary reason for noncommensurate congregational and membership growth.  
• Decreasing Percentage Growth Rates for Membership and Congregational Growth: The annual percentage growth rate for membership has declined over the past decade from approximately 2.9% to 2.2%.  Annual congregational growth rates have fluctuated from a high of 1.62% to a low of 0.23%.  Although growth is still occurring in both these statistics at present, slowing growth rates can be interpreted as an impeding sign of stagnation.
• Stagnant Numbers of Districts: Districts are an administrative unit similar to a stake generally formed in areas with a more recently established church presence.  Districts do not require a certain number of active members to function but do possess some aspects of self-sufficiency like stakes.  The number of districts worldwide has remained relatively unchanged over the past decade at slightly more than 600.  Although it may seem strange to consider district growth as a sign of overall healthy church growth as the maturation of districts into stakes points to increase in active membership, no worldwide increase in this statistic indicates a lack of progress introducing the Church into new areas.  

In conclusion, my intention with this post was to provide a brief synopsis of how we can measure growth and determine whether the LDS Chuch is growing.  The worldwide Church continues to experience growth, but this growth remains relatively small and has slowed within the past decade.