Showing posts with label Growth Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Growth Predictions. Show all posts

Thursday, November 14, 2024

Unprecedented Expansion of the Church in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

In the past 2 years, the Church in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo) has experienced unprecedented expansion into cities, towns, and villages that have previously had no official congregations. Historically, the Church has generally established its first branch in only 1-2 cities or towns per year (if any) since 2008. However, the Church organized its first branches in six cities and towns in 2023 - the most ever up to that point. In 2024, 14 cities, towns, and villages have had the first branches of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints organized. The Church's meetinghouse locator now reports official wards or branches operating in 43 cities, towns, or villages in the country. The number of cities, towns, and villages with a ward or branch has doubled since 2021. Moreover, the Church has begun to organize branches in small towns and villages in the DR Congo for the first time. This represents a major shift in historical area and mission policies and practices that have governed the growth and expansion of the Church in the DR Congo, as there has been a strong emphasis on establishing centers of strength and postponing the creation of branches in additional cities due to concerns with finite mission resources, leadership training, and ensuring quality baptismal standards for new converts. The number of missions in the DR Congo increased from just one prior to 2010 to seven as of late 2024 (eight if the Rwanda Kigali Mission is included which administers to branches in the eastern DR Congo near Rwanda and Burundi), and this has likely been a major catalyst to provide the needed mission president oversight and resources to effectively expand into so many previously unreached locations. The announcement of a permanent Missionary Training Center (MTC) in Kinshasa in 2024 has also provided for greater infrastructure to train local Congolese to staff these many new missions. The Church in the DR Congo has typically achieved member activity and convert retention rates in excess of 80% which numbers among the highest in the world. 

 A recent article noted that the number of Latter-day Saints in the DR Congo has surpassed 130,000 - an increase of more than 15,000 since January of 2024. Dozens of new wards and branches have been created and two new stakes have been organized since January of 2024. There are now 29 stakes and 3 districts. One temple has been completed and dedicated (Kinshasa in 2019) with three more temples planned (Lubumbashi, Kananga, and Mbuji-Mayi). Latter-day Saint statistical information for the DR Congo going back to 1987 can be accessed here.

The potential for continued rapid growth in the DR Congo appears favorable. Population estimates for the entire country typically range from 105 to 115 million. There remain dozens of large cities without an official ward or branch. Translations of the Book of Mormon are available in the first, second, or third language of most Congolese. There are only six cities with an official branch in the entire northern half of the country. Huge swaths of most areas of the country remain totally unreached by Latter-day Saints. Many cities have had isolated members or prospective members who have waited years, or even decades, for an official Church establishment, such as Kikondja and Fizi. Some cities have had two branches organized at the same time when an official Latter-day Saint presence is first established (such as Tshikapa and Kamanda).

The following 16 stakes appear likely to divide in the near future (next 2 years):

  • Kananga Democratic Republic of Congo Stake (12 wards)
  • Katuba Democratic Republic of Congo Stake (11 wards)
  • Kinshasa Democratic Republic of Congo Stake (10 wards)
  • Kinshasa Democratic Republic of Congo Binza Stake (10 wards) 
  • Kinshasa Democratic Republic of the Congo Kimbanseke Stake (10 wards)
  • Kinshasa Democratic Republic of the Congo Mpasa Stake (10 wards, 1 branch)
  • Kinshasa Democratic Republic of the Congo Lukunga Stake (11 wards, 1 branch) 
  • Kinshasa Democratic Republic of the Congo N'Djili Stake (9 wards, 2 branches)
  • Kolwezi Democratic Republic of Congo Stake (12 wards, 2 branches)
  • Katoka Democratic Republic of the Congo Stake (12 wards) 
  • Lubumbashi Democratic Republic of the Congo Stake (11 wards, 1 branch)
  • Luputa Democratic Republic of Congo Stake (9 wards, 1 branch)
  • Malandji Democratic Republic of the Congo Stake (11 wards)
  • Mbuji-Mayi Democratic Republic of the Congo Stake (9 wards)
  • Ngandajika Democratic Republic of the Congo Stake (9 wards, 2 branches)
  • Ruashi Democratic Republic of the Congo Stake (11 wards, 1 branch)

The following 2 districts appear likely to become stakes in the near future (next 2 years):

  • Kisangani Democratic Republic of the Congo District (6 branches)
  • Matadi Democratic Republic of the Congo District (6 branches)

The following 9 cities (provided with the current number of branches in the area in parentheses) appear likely to have districts organized from mission branches in the near future (next 2-3 years):

  • Bandundu (3 branches)
  • Boma (2 branches)
  • Bukavu (2 branches)
  • Kamanda (2 branches)
  • Kikwit (3 branches) 
  • Luiza (2 branches)
  • Muanda (2 branches)
  • Tshikapa (2 branches)
  • Uvira (2 branches)

The following 22 cities and towns appear likely to have official branches organized in the near to medium terms (cities in bold appear most likely):

  • Beni
  • Bumba
  • Bunia
  • Butembo
  • Fizi
  • Genema 
  • Ilebo
  • Inkisi/Kisantu
  • Isiro
  • Kamaniola
  • Kasangulu
  • Katanda
  • Kikondja
  • Kindu 
  • Lisala
  • Lodja
  • Lukalaba 
  • Lungutu
  • Luvungi
  • Mbanza-Ngungu 
  • Miabi 
  • Tshilenge

The following cities appear likely to have missions organized in the next 3-5 years:

  • Bukavu
  • Kinshasa (4th mission)
  • Kisangani
  • Likasi 
  • Lubumbashi (2nd mission)
  • Luputa
  • Matadi
  • Mwene-Ditu

The following cities appear likely to have temples announced in the next 5-7 years:

  • Kinshasa (2nd temple)
  • Kolwezi
  • Likasi
  • Luputa
  • Matadi
  • Mwene-Ditu

I predict that by the year 2030, the Church in the DR Congo will likely have the following if current trends continue:

  • 300,000 members
  • 50 stakes
  • 700 official congregations (i.e., wards and branches)
  • 10 districts
  • 15 missions
  • 70 cities, towns, and villages with an official Church presence
  • 10 temples
  • 1 area that also includes the Republic of the Congo

Saturday, April 6, 2019

2018 Projected Membership by Country

Within the next couple weeks, the Church will likely publish country-by-country data regarding the number of Church-reported members. See below for my projections for year-end 2018 membership by country. Most of the estimates below were generated from assuming membership growth occurred at the same rate in 2018 as it did in 2017. However, I have made a few adjustments, such as in regards to the United States and Mexico where membership growth rates have likely continued to decelerate.



World
           16,223,596
United States
             6,600,000
Mexico
             1,450,000
Brazil
             1,410,000
Philippines
                 784,827
Peru
                 601,716
Chile
                 594,361
Argentina
                 459,510
Guatemala
                 275,000
Ecuador
                 248,012
Bolivia
                 207,089
Colombia
                 204,356
Canada
                 197,992
United Kingdom
                 187,856
Honduras
                 178,003
Nigeria
                 174,587
Venezuela
                 168,887
Australia
                 153,236
Dominican Republic
                 137,579
Japan
                 129,814
El Salvador
                 127,222
New Zealand
                 114,506
Uruguay
                 105,943
Nicaragua
                 101,300
Paraguay
                   94,918
South Korea
                   88,083
Ghana
                   83,595
Samoa
                   82,128
South Africa
                   67,381
Tonga
                   65,492
Congo, Democratic Republic of
                   62,559
Taiwan
                   61,022
Panama
                   58,214
Spain
                   57,880
Costa Rica
                   50,208
Cote d'Ivoire
                   48,201
Portugal
                   45,199
Germany
                   40,063
France
                   39,675
Zimbabwe
                   33,360
Papua New Guinea
                   28,470
French Polynesia
                   28,214
Italy
                   27,300
Hong Kong
                   24,835
Haiti
                   23,769
Russia
                   23,324
Puerto Rico
                   23,140
Thailand
                   22,926
Fiji
                   21,283
Sierra Leone
                   21,215
Kiribati
                   21,012
Uganda
                   16,801
American Samoa
                   16,498
Cape Verde
                   14,906
Cambodia
                   14,796
Kenya
                   14,015
India
                   13,999
Liberia
                   13,179
Madagascar
                   12,422
Mozambique
                   12,263
China
                   12,000
Mongolia
                   11,846
Ukraine
                   11,237
Malaysia
                   10,438
Sweden
                      9,772
Vanuatu
                      9,666
Netherlands
                      9,544
Switzerland
                      8,791
Indonesia
                      7,509
Congo, Republic of
                      7,497
Jamaica
                      6,504
Marshall Islands
                      6,494
Micronesia
                      6,447
Belgium
                      6,370
Guyana
                      6,006
Belize
                      5,416
Hungary
                      5,236
Finland
                      4,842
Austria
                      4,710
Norway
                      4,613
Denmark
                      4,478
Togo
                      4,464
Zambia
                      4,420
Pakistan
                      4,400
Ireland
                      3,990
Benin
                      3,572
Armenia
                      3,528
Botswana
                      3,517
Trinidad and Tobago
                      3,474
Singapore
                      3,353
Albania
                      3,124
Romania
                      3,045
Malawi
                      3,004
Angola
                      2,793
Czech Republic
                      2,643
Guam
                      2,601
Vietnam
                      2,600
New Caledonia
                      2,457
Bulgaria
                      2,407
Cameroon
                      2,258
Swaziland
                      2,048
Poland
                      2,026
Ethiopia
                      1,930
Cook Islands
                      1,843
Tanzania
                      1,768
Suriname
                      1,611
Sri Lanka
                      1,586
United Arab Emirates
                      1,567
Macau
                      1,469
Solomon Islands
                      1,246
Latvia
                      1,242
Lesotho
                      1,165
Estonia
                      1,120
Barbados
                      1,089
Bahamas
                      1,055
Lithuania
                         976
Reunion
                         969
Namibia
                         853
Northern Mariana Islands
                         846
Greece
                         832
Rwanda
                         802
Burundi
                         780
St. Vincent
                         713
Croatia
                         631
Aruba
                         618
Turkey
                         581
Qatar
                         560
Virgin Islands, U.S.
                         555
Curacao
                         526
Palau
                         525
Mauritius
                         520
Guadeloupe
                         505
Luxembourg
                         477
Cyprus
                         457
French Guiana
                         453
Moldova
                         435
Grenada
                         434
Slovenia
                         417
Serbia
                         388
St. Lucia
                         385
Kuwait
                         350
Israel
                         318
Niue
                         309
Cuba
                         300
Iceland
                         291
Tuvalu
                         285
Slovakia
                         276
Jersey
                         275
Isle of Man
                         275
Georgia
                         271
Turks and Caicos Islands
                         264
Gabon
                         262
Central African Republic
                         252
Martinique
                         248
Cayman Islands
                         246
Antigua and Barbuda
                         244
Malta
                         222
St. Maarten
                         221
Bahrain
                         215
Bermuda
                         190
St. Kitts and Nevis
                         184
Kazakhstan
                         182
Dominica
                         157
Virgin Islands, British
                         150
Nauru
                         124
Senegal
                         120
Kosovo
                         110
Morocco
                            90
Oman
                            82
Guinea
                            80
Bosnia and Herzegovina
                            72
Guernsey
                            66
Macedonia
                            40
Montenegro
                            15