Unprecedented Growth in East Africa

Within the past 2-3 years, the Church has begun to experience unprecedented growth in East Africa where countries have historically ranked among the least reached in the world by Latter-day Saints (and among the slowest growth for the Church in Africa). In this post, I will briefly summarize historical growth trends in East Africa, describe current growth trends and significant developments, and offer predictions for the foreseeable future.

INTRODUCTION

East Africa is traditionally defined as containing countries that stretch from Eritrea, South Sudan, and Ethiopia in the north, to Zimbabwe and Mozambique in the south, to Zambia, Madagascar and Indian Ocean nations in the east, and Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda to the west. With a population of approximately half a billion people, East Africa is the most populous region of Africa and has presented many opportunities for growth which have not been taken advantage of by mission and area presidencies for decades. Consequently, extremely few mission and area resources have been allocated to East Africa notwithstanding political stability, religious freedom, and enormous populations that have often been receptive to the Latter-day Saint gospel message in the past 25 years. For example, in 2000 there were only three missions in all of East Africa that were headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya (organized in 1991); Harare, Zimbabwe (organized in 1987); and Antananarivo, Madagascar (organized in 1998). In fact, several of these nations did not have a Church presence established until relatively recently, such as Malawi (2000), Rwanda (2008), and Burundi (presence reestablished in 2010 after a brief period of an official presence in the early 1990s). Several nations today do not have any official branches, such as South Sudan (used to have one branch for a couple years in the late 2000s/early 2010s), Eritrea, Djibouti (used to have a military branch), Somalia (used to have a branch in Mogadishu primarily comprised of foreigners), Comoros, and Mayotte (officially part of France; very small branch used to operate until approximately 10-15 years ago). With only a few exceptions, most of the countries in East Africa have generally reported slow to moderate membership and congregational growth rates. Also, the Church has generally reported a presence in only a handful of cities in most East African countries. Rural communities in East Africa are almost entirely unreached by the Church. The only examples of branches functioning in rural communities in East Africa are in a few isolated locations in Kenya, Madagascar, and Uganda.

The creation of the Africa Central Area with headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya in 2020 has been a major catalyst that has appeared primarily responsible for the recent surge in growth that has occurred in most of the countries in East Africa. Prior to the creation of the new area, there were only two administrative areas in Africa: the Africa West Area and the Africa Southeast Area (later renamed the Africa South Area). Although the Africa Central Area also includes Central Africa, the area's headquarters in East Africa in Nairobi, Kenya has appeared to favor greater focus and expansion into East Africa more than Central Africa due to closer geographic proximity. Furthermore, the number of missions in East Africa has increased significantly from 3 in 2000 to 5 in 2010 and 9 in 2020. By mid-2024, the Church will have 11 missions in the area. Another major catalyst for recent growth in some countries has been greater use of local languages rather than English, such as Swahili and Kinyarwanda.

SUMMARY OF RECENT GROWTH DEVELOPMENTS

See below for a summary of many of the recent developments in regard to rapid growth in East Africa. Click on the country name that is in bold to access the updated statistical profile on cumorah.com (most profiles have been updated with 2023 figures, and the ones that have not been updated yet will soon be updated).

• Burundi - The number of branches has doubled from four to eight since January 2024. The Church organized its first branches in four additional cities since January, including Cibitoke (location where a mission president visited hundreds who wanted to join the Church approximately 13-14 years ago but were told to wait until the Church is better established), Gitega, Muzinda, and Ngozi. Never in the Church's history in modern times has the Church in a country gone from official branches in only one city to five cities within so short a period of time. Church membership grew from 823 in 2021 to 1,541 in 2023. The Bujumbura Burundi District was created in 2021, and today there are four branches in the district. The population of Burundi is 13.2 million.
• Ethiopia - Three new branches were organized in Addis Ababa in 2022 and 2023. A new group was just organized on the outskirts of Addis Ababa in Burayu. The population of Ethiopia is 127 million.
  
• Kenya -  Annual membership growth rates have been sustained at 9-10% for 2022 and 2023. Membership grew in 2023 at the fastest rate reported since 2009. The number of wards and branches increased from 54 at year-end 2021 to 69 at present. The Church organized its first branches in six cities/towns/villages in 2023. A third stake was organized in Nairobi in 2023. The population of Kenya is 55.1 million.
  
• Madagascar - Church membership increased by 7.1% in 2023 - the highest annual percentage growth rate for membership since 2012. Two new stakes have been organized since 2022, and there are now four stakes and two districts. The population of Madagascar is 30.3 million.
  
• Malawi - Church membership increased by 23.4% in 2023 - the highest annual percentage growth rate for membership since 2011. There are now 4,776 Latter-day Saints in Malawi. The number of branches in Malawi increased from 8 to 13 between 2020 and 2023. The population of Malawi is 20.9 million.
  
• Mozambique - Church membership increased by more than 6,000 in 2023 to 24,733 by the end of the year - a 34.1% annual increase and one of the largest annual net increases in membership for the entire worldwide Church. Mozambique ranked as the country with the highest membership growth rate in 2023 among countries with publicly released membership totals. Mozambique is also the East African country with the second most Latter-day Saints. However, Church-reported membership comprises a mere 0.073% of the population (one Latter-day Saint per 1,371 people). The number of wards and branches in Mozambique increased by 23.2% in 2023, as there were 13 new wards/branches organized. There are 18 cities with an official ward or branches - 6 of which had their first ward or branch organized since 2022 (and all six of these cities are located in southern Mozambique). Two new stakes and one new district were organized in Mozambique in 2023. The population of Mozambique is 33.9 million.
  
• Rwanda - The number of branches has increased from four to nine since 2021, and the first branch outside of Kigali was created in Nyamata in 2022. The Rwanda Kigali Mission was organized in 2022 to service Rwanda, Burundi, and some eastern portions of the DR Congo. Church membership in Rwanda increased from 843 in 2021 to 1,537 in 2023. The population of Rwanda is 14.1 million.
  
• Tanzania - Church membership increased by nearly 1,000 in 2023 which was a 32.3% annual increase - the highest reported by the Church in Tanzania since 1998-1999 when there were less than 500 members. The Church reported 3,969 members as of year-end 2023. The number of branches has proliferated from 10 in 2020 to 27 today. Most of these new branches have been organized in Dar Es Salaam where there are now 18 branches. Three new districts have been organized since 2022 in Dar Es Salaam (Chang'ombe), Arusha, and Mwanza. The number of cities with an official branch has increased in the past three years from 3 to 5 with the creation of branches in Moshi (2021) and Dodoma (2023). The population of Tanzania is 67.4 million.
• Uganda - The Church organized its first branches in three previously unreached cities in 2023 and 2024 (Bukomero, Kalisizo, and Mbarara), thereby increasing the number of cities/towns/villages with at least one ward or branch to 18. The population of Uganda is 48.6 million.
  
• Zambia - Church membership increased by 11.2% in 2023 to 5,906 - the most rapid membership growth reported by the Church in Zambia since 2014. A third branch was created in Kitwe. The population of Zambia is 20.6 million.
  
• Zimbabwe - Zimbabwe became the first country in East Africa to reach 100 official congregations during 2023, as the number of wards/branches increased from 91 to 100 during the year. Church membership increased by 7.8% in 2023 - the highest annual membership growth rate seen in Zimbabwe since 2013. The Church organized its first branches in five cities between 2000 and 2023, raising the number of cities/towns/villages with a ward or branch to 26. Zimbabwe is the East African country with the highest percentage of Latter-day Saints in the population, at 0.25%, or one Latter-day Saint per 404 people. The population of Zimbabwe is 16.7 million.
  

PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH

Growth conditions in East Africa remain highly favorable, and prospects appear good for continued rapid growth so long as reasonably high member activity and convert retention rates are sustained (and the amount of resources allocated to the area continue to increase). Here is a list of likely developments within the next 2-5 years that I believe are likely for East Africa given recent growth trends and future opportunities for growth:

• Continued National Outreach Expansion:
• Prospects appear most favorable in Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Madagascar for the opening of many cities, towns, and villages to missionary work and creating branches.
  
• Area and mission leadership may begin to expand outreach in countries where there has been little to no expansion in the past decade, such as Malawi and Zambia.
• Ethiopia appears unlikely to have much outreach expansion until a solid center of strength is established in Addis Ababa and the district becomes a stake.
• The Reestablishment of the Church in South Sudan: I have received reports that the Juba Branch may be close to reinstatement. The Church recently obtained registration with the South Sudanese government. Conditions for growth appear highly favorable. South Sudanese have been uniquely receptive to the Latter-day Saint gospel message and often join the Church in other countries, including in East Africa such as Ethiopia and Uganda.
  
• The Creation of the First Stakes in Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi, and Rwanda: All of these countries appear likely to have stakes organized in the next 2-5 years, as there are emerging center of strengths that are approaching the minimum requirements to become stakes. 
• Adoption of Kirundi as an Official Church Language in Burundi and Chichewa as an Official Language in Malawi: Based on the most recent information I have received, Church activities and services remain to be conducted in French and Swahili in Burundi. However, Kirundi is the primary language spoken in Burundi. With the establishment of branches outside of Bujumbura, it appears likely that we will see a transition to Kirundi similar to what was seen in the past few years in Rwanda when the official language of Church operations transitioned from English to Kinyarwanda. The Church in Malawi also seems likely to utilize Chichewa as its official language given this is the predominant language spoke in the country, including in both Church centers in Blantyre and Lilongwe.
  
• The Creation of More Missions: Locations that appear most likely to have new missions organized in East Africa during the next 2-5 years include:
• Bujumbura, Burundi to service Burundi (currently assigned to the Rwanda Kigali Mission)
• Eldoret, Kenya to service western Kenya (currently assigned to the Kenya Nairobi Mission. The Kenya Nairobi Mission will divide this summer to create a second mission based in Nairobi).
• Lilongwe, Malawi to service Malawi (currently assigned to the Zambia Lusaka Mission).
• A second mission in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania (currently one mission for the entire country). 
• A second mission in Kampala, Uganda (currently one mission for the entire country).
• Third mission in Zimbabwe (most likely scenario appears to be a second mission in Harare). 
• Additional Temple Announcements: The following locations appear most likely to have temples announced within the next five years (although many of these are likely in 4-5 years out and not in the immediate future). I have ordered these from most likely to least likely to be announced.
  
• Kampala, Uganda - Uganda is the country with the most Latter-day Saints without a temple announced or dedicated. Kampala appears one of the most likely locations in the world to have a temple announced in the immediate future.
  
• Maputo, Mozambique - There are now three stakes in Maputo, and long distance from Beira suggest that a separate temple in Maputo is highly likely. The Church in Mozambique has experienced some of the most rapid growth in the worldwide Church in the past decade. All seven stakes in Mozambique have been organized since 2015, and more stakes appear likely to be organized in the foreseeable future.
  
• Bulawayo, Zimbabwe - There have been two stakes in Bulawayo since 2023, and a third stake appears likely in the foreseeable future. Distance from Harare and a mission in Bulawayo both appear to make Bulawayo a good candidate for a future temple.
  
• Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania - Similar to the situation with the recent announcement of the Luanda Angola Temple, the Church in Tanzania has experienced rapid growth in both membership and the number of congregations. The creation of two stakes in Dar Es Salaam appears likely within the next 2-4 years. 
• Kigali, Rwanda - With sustained rapid growth, the creation of a stake appears likely in the next 1-3 years. A second stake may be a possibility by 2028 or 2029. A temple in Kigali appears more likely than in Burundi due to a highly concentrated membership in Kigali that has also been members of the Church longer (and with historically higher activity rates) than in Burundi.
  
• Lusaka, Zambia - This location may be a candidate for a temple, but this would be much more likely if there were two stakes in Lusaka. Unfortunately, the Church in Lusaka has experienced no increase in the number of wards since the stake was organized in 2015.
• Bujumbura, Burundi - A more remote possibility, Bujumbura may have a temple announced by 2029, especially given rapid growth in neighboring cities in the DR Congo, many of which have had branches just recently organized in the past year (i.e., Bakara, Bukavu, Goma, Kavumu, Kalemie) and where most speak Swahili (commonly spoken in the Bujumbura area). 
• Addis Ababa, Ethiopia - The most remote prospect, Addis Ababa may be a site for a temple announcement in 5 years, but this will depend on whether the Church can achieve sufficient growth and member activity to create a stake with prospects of a second stake in the foreseeable future. However, the Church in Ethiopia has struggled for decades with leadership development and low member activity rates which have been exacerbated by a lack of a mission in the country until 2020 and difficulties with full-time missionaries becoming proficient speakers of Amharic.