2021 Canadian Census

This past week, demographic data regarding religious affiliation and ethnicity was released for the 2021 Canadian census. These data can be found here. Some of the most noteworthy findings in the census data in regard to major religious groups include the percentage of Canadians who identify as Christian declined from 67.3% in 2011 to 53.3% in 2021, the percentage of Canadians who reported no religious affiliation increased from 23.9% in 2011 to 34.6% in 2021, the percentage of Canadians who identify as Muslim increased from 2.0% in 2001 to 4.9% in 2021, and the percentage of Canadians who identify as Hindu increased from 1.0% in 2001 to 2.3% in 2021.

The 2021 census noted 85,315 self-affiliated Latter-day Saints in Canada, or 0.23% of the total population and 42.8% of official Church-reported membership for year-end 2021. The percentage of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints compared to Church-reported membership was 56.9% in 2011. However, it is important to note that figures for Latter-day Saints in Canada on the census are extrapolated from sample data - not the entire data set. The database notes indicate that 25% of the persons in private households in occupied private dwellings were utilized for sample data to make the estimates for religious affiliation by group. Thus, the database also includes 95% confidence intervals for ranges with the data reported. Consequently, the following analysis should be considered with this in mind, especially given that these data may be prone to error for a small religious group (less than one percent of the population) in which only 25% of households were considered. It is unclear what the process was for the selection of the 25% sample, but I would assume that it was done randomly by statistical area to ensure that this sample is representative of the population. Despite this limitation, the census estimates appear to match well with Church-reported membership, even for areas where there are few Latter-day Saints on the records (like Northwest Territories). In other words, the census data do not appear to over-estimate the number of Latter-day Saints in areas with few Latter-day Saints.

The 2021 census figure for Latter-day Saints is 20,050 less than the number of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints tallied in the 2011 census (105,365) - a 19.0% decline in one decade. This marks one of the most significant percentage declines in the self-affiliation of Latter-day Saints noted on a national census. The percentage decline in the number of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints between 2011 and 2021 is similar to the percentage decline of self-affiliated Christians in the Canadian population during this same time period. The demographic composition of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints in the 2021 Canadian census was as follows: 85.2% not a visible minority (White, First Nations), 5.15% Latin American, 3.65% Filipino, 1.89% Black, 1.58% Chinese, 0.73% "multiple visible minorities," 0.47% Japanese, 0.35% "visible minorities not included elsewhere," 0.32% Korean, 0.28% Southeast Asian, 0.28% South Asian, 0.04% West Asian, and 0.02% Arab. In contrast, the Canadian population is 73.5% White/First Nations, 7.08% South Asian, 4.72% Chinese, 4.26% Black, 2.64% Filipino, 1.91% Arab, 1.60% Latin American, 1.07% Southeast Asian, 0.99% West Asian, 0.91% "multiple visible minorities," 0.60% Korean, 0.48% "visible minorities not included elsewhere," and 0.27% Japanese. Thus, self-affiliated Latter-day Saints are slightly more White than the general Canadian population, Latin Americans are significant over-represented in self-affiliated Latter-day Saints (more than three times the national percentage of Latin Americans), and self-affiliated Latter-day Saints are significantly under-represented in South Asians, West Asians, Southeast Asians, Arabs, and Blacks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest percentage of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints in the population, the 2021 census noted the percentage of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints by Province/Territory as follows: Alberta (1.43%), British Columbia (0.32%), Northwest Territories (0.24%), Yukon (0.20%), Saskatchewan (0.17%), Nova Scotia (0.17%), Prince Edward Island (0.12%), Ontario (0.12%), Manitoba (0.11%), New Brunswick (0.10%), Quebec (0.04%), Newfoundland and Labrador (0.03%), and Nunavut (0.03%). The percentage of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints of Church-reported official membership by province/territory is as follows: Northwest Territories (53.1%), Alberta (52.3%), British Columbia (33.5%), Prince Edward Island (31.5%), New Brunswick (30.6%), Nova Scotia (28.7%), Saskatchewan (28.6%), Yukon (26.4%), Manitoba (23.2%), Quebec (22.0%), Newfoundland (20.8%), and Ontario (20.2%). Thus, these data suggest that the Church has the highest member activity rates in Northwest Territories and Alberta and the lowest member activity rates in Ontario, Newfoundland, and Quebec. These findings are consistent with reports from local members and returned missionaries over the decades in regard to member activity rates in these locations.

Although the census data suggest a major contraction in active members, other statistical indicators do not suggest that there has been a major decline in active membership. For example, congregational growth rates in Canada have not supported major changes in the number of active Latter-day Saints in the country. Congregations require certain minimum criteria to operate, and increases in the number of congregations correlates with increases in active membership. The number of congregations in Canada increased from 477 as of year-end 2011 to 499 as of year-end 2021. Moreover, Church membership in Canada increased from 185,149 to 199,534 during this 10-year period. The average number of members per congregation in Canada increased from 388 in 2011 to 400 in 2021 - one of the lowest members-to-congregations ratios in the world among countries where there are at least 100,000 members on the records. These data indicate membership growth rates have outpaced congregational growth rates - a finding typical in situations where the member activity rate may be decreasing (or where the number of active members per congregation is increasing). Furthermore, there has been a slight increase in the number of stakes in Canada between 2011 and 2021, as there were 47 stakes in 2011 and 53 stakes in Canada in 2021. The significant decline in census-reported Latter-day Saints indicate that significant congregation consolidations may occur in the foreseeable future. However, it is unclear whether the decline in self-affiliated Latter-day Saints was primarily due to larger numbers of less active/inactive Latter-day Saints no longer self-affiliating with the Church on the census, active members leaving the Church, or a combination of the two. Furthermore, it is also unclear whether birth and death rates in the Church may also account for these changes in census data, albeit this seems unlikely given Church-reported membership growth trends have not appeared to significantly change in recent years. I have not been able to find data from the 2011 Canadian census that breaks down religious affiliation by province/territory - such data would be valuable to assess how self-affiliation has changed in the past decade by province or territory. 

Finally, I wanted to post a link to the local member Church growth survey. Please complete this survey on the Church in your congregation to assist our research for The Cumorah Foundation. You can complete the survey here.

Self-Affiliated Latter-day Saints in Mexico: 2010 vs 2020 Censuses

Recently, statistical data was released from the 2020 Mexican census. This data provides valuable insights into member activity and growth patterns in membership for the Church in Mexico compared to prior censuses. See below for a table that displays 2010 and 2020 census data regarding the number of Latter-day Saints by administrative division in Mexico. It is important to note that self-affiliation as measured by what people report on the census is not a perfect measurement of the total number of self-identified Latter-day Saints in a particular country. However, most self-identified Latter-day Saints appear to self-affiliate as Latter-day Saints in the census, so this statistic can provide valuable insights into the number of active members. The Church does not publish a breakdown of its membership by Mexican state.

Mexican States with the highest percentage of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints on the 2020 census include:

1. Yucatán - 0.51%
   
2. Chihuahua - 0.47%
   
3. Hidalgo - 0.45%
   
4. Quintana Roo - 0.43%
   
5. Tamaulipas - 0.40%
   
6. Morelos - 0.40%
   
7. Sonora - 0.38%
   
8. Campeche - 0.36%
   
9. Coahuila de Zaragoza - 0.35%
   
10. Baja California - 0.34%

Mexican states with the lowest percentage of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints on the 2020 census include:

1. Michoacán de Ocampo - 0.08%
   
2. Guanajuato - 0.09%
   
3. Zacatecas - 0.11%
   
4. Jalisco - 0.12%
   
5. Nayarit - 0.14%
   
6. San Luis Potosí - 0.14%
   
7. Guerrero - 0.14%
   
8. Chiapas - 0.16%
   
9. Colima - 0.17%
   
10. Tlaxcala - 0.17%

These data indicate that self-affiliated Latter-day Saints generally comprise the highest percentages of the population in Mexico in the Yucatán Peninsula and in northern Mexico along the United States border and the lowest percentage of the population in central Mexico west of Mexico City. 

The number of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints increased by the highest percentage in the following states between 2010 and 2020:

1. Querétaro - 66.2%
   
2. Quintana Roo - 21.5%
   
3. Hidalgo - 17.9%
   
4. Puebla - 17.6%
   
5. Tlaxcala - 17.4%
   
6. Nuevo León - 14.7%
   
7. Oaxaca - 14.0%
   
8. Yucatán - 13.1%
   
9. Tabasco - 12.3%
   
10. Durango - 11.8%

The number of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints decreased by the highest percentage, or increased at the smallest percentage, in the following states between 2010 and 2020:

1.  Colima - -9.7%
2. Guerrero - -8.9%
   
3. Michoacán de Ocampo - -6.8%
   
4. Coahuila de Zaragoza - -6.6%
   
5. Nayarit - -6.1%
   
6. Sonora - -1.5%
   
7. Baja California - -0.3%
   
8. Sinaloa - -0.1%
   
9. Ciudad de México - 0.3%
   
10. Chiapas - 1.9%

The percentage of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints in the population increased in only seven states between 2010 and 2020, including:

1. Querétaro - 0.05%
   
2. Oaxaca - 0.01%
   
3. Puebla - 0.01%
4. Tabasco - 0.01%
5. Veracruz de Ignacio de la Llave - 0.01%
6. Hidalgo - 0.01%
7. Tlaxcala - 0.004%

On the contrary, the percentage of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints in the population decreased most rapidly in the following states between 2010 and 2020:

1. Coahuila de Zaragoza - -0.08%
   
2. Baja California - -0.07%
   
3. Quintana Roo - -0.07%
   
4. Baja California Sur - -0.05%
   
5. Sonora - -0.05%
   
6. Colima - -0.04%
   
7. Morelos - -0.03%
   
8. Nayarit - -0.03%
   
9. Sinaloa - -0.03%
   
10. Nuevo León - -0.03%
    

Overall, the percentage of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints in the population slightly decreased from 0.24% to 0.22% between 2010 and 2020. The 2010 census reported 314,932 Latter-day Saints, whereas the 2020 census reported 337,998 Latter-day Saints. There was a net increase of only 23,066 self-affiliated Latter-day Saints between 2010 and 2020, whereas Church-reported membership increased by 246,985. Thus, the increase in the number of census-reported Latter-day Saints was 9.3% of the Church-reported increase in membership during this time. The Church in Mexico has struggled for decades with low convert retention and member activity rates. Probably only 20% of Church-reported membership in Mexico regularly attends church - a percentage that has not appeared to have significantly changed in the past two decades based on survey data from returned missionaries and local members and census data (i.e., 23.2% of Church-reported membership self-affiliated on the census in 2000). The number of Latter-day Saint congregations in Mexico decreased between 2010 and 2020 from 2,007 to 1,843 primarily due to the consolidation of wards with few active members. Moreover, Latter-day Saints are the most urbanized religious group among the largest religious groups on the Mexican census, and this appears primarily attributed to the centers of strength policy. Two-thirds (65.4%) of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints in 2010 resided in cities of 100,000 or more people—the highest percentage of any other major religious group in Mexico. Only 47.7% of Mexicans lived in such cities at the time. There has also been research that indicates Latter-day Saint families in Mexico have fewer children than non-Latter-day Saint families in Mexico per Fox K (2011) Mormon fertility in Latin America found in the BYU Scholars Archive.

Querétaro stands out as an anomaly in the data for Latter-day Saints given a whopping increase of 66.2% in self-affiliated Latter-day Saints between 2010 and 2020. Moreover, Querétaro was the only Mexican state where the percentage of Latter-day Saints in the population increased by more than 0.01% during this period. Local members report that Querétaro is an important emerging economic center in Mexico that has attracted many young families who work in the tech industry. Thus, much of the growth in membership in Querétaro appears attributed to Latter-day Saint families moving to the city.

Click on the image below to see the data table for the statistical data I presented above. Data from 2010 was presented and analyzed in this post.

New Stake Created in Mexico and Preview of 2020 Mexican Census Numbers

Last Sunday, the Church organized a new stake in the city of Querétaro. The Querétaro México Stake was divided to organize the new Querétaro México Valle Stake. The new stake includes the following four wards and two branches: the Fresnos, Juriquilla, Satelite, and Valle Wards, and the San Jose de Itubide and San Luis de la Paz Branches. With only four wards, the creation of additional wards appears imminent. There are now four stakes in the city of Querétaro where the Church organized its first stake in 1995. The Church in Querétaro has generally organized one new stake every decade. The Querétaro Mexico Temple was announced in April 2021.

The 2020 Mexican Census indicated that the number of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints in Querétaro State increased by a whopping 66.2% from 2010 - the largest percentage increase of any state in Mexico during that time period. This percentage increase was more than twice the rate of population growth during that same period. Young families, particularly those with professional training, have reportedly been moving to Querétaro in appreciable numbers during the past decade based upon local member reports. This growth has also likely contributed to the announcement of a temple in the city in 2021. Although these statistics are very positive, the number of self-reported Latter-day Saints in Mexico as a whole increased by only 7.3% between 2010 and 2020 even though Church-reported membership increased by 23.7% during this time period. I will be posting an analysis of the 2020 Mexican Census numbers in the coming days.

There are now 225 stakes and 47 districts in Mexico.

Updated Kiribati Census Figures from 2020

The Kiribati government released statistics last month from the 2020 census that provides information on self-identified religious affiliation for the population of Kiribati. These data indicate that there were 6,720 self-affiliated Latter-day Saints in 2020 which is an increase of 863 from 5,857 in 2015, or 14.7%. In contrast, the population of Kiribati increased by 9,302 between 2015 and 2020, or 8.4%. Thus, the number of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints has increased at a rate almost twice the population growth rate during this five-year period. Self-affiliated Latter-day Saints constituted 5.6% of the national population in 2020 - an increase from 5.3% in 2015. Thirty-two percent (32%) of Church-reported membership at the time identified as Latter-day Saints on the 2020 Kiribati census, whereas 34% of Church-reported membership identified as Latter-day Saints on the 2015 Kiribati census. However, there was a net increase of 4,151 members per official Church records between 2015 and 2020 which equaled a 24.7% increase in membership. Thus, as few as 20.8% of members added to Church records between 2015 and 2020 identified as Latter-day Saints in 2020. These data indicate that the member activity rate in Kiribati has appeared to slightly decrease during the past five years by approximately two percent. Unfortunately, 2020 census data do not include an island-by-island breakdown by religious affiliation unlike the 2010 and 2015 censuses. The 2020 Kiribati census data can be found here. A previous case study I wrote that analyzed 2010 census data on religious affiliation by island can be found here.

Australia 2021 Census Data - Number of Self-Reported Latter-day Saints by State/Territory

The 2021 Australian Census also includes a geographical breakdown of the number of self-reported Latter-day Saints by state or territory. See below for Australian states/territories listed in descending order by the percent of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints. The number after the administrative division name is the number of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints, whereas the last number of the line is the percentage of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints in the population.

• Queensland - 20,192 - 0.39%
• Tasmania - 1,340 - 0.24% 
• Northern Territory - 549 - 0.24%
  
• Western Australia - 5,951 - 0.22%
• New South Wales - 14,893 - 0.18%
• Victoria - 11,457 - 0.18%
• South Australia - 2,794 - 0.16%
• Australian Capital Territory - 696 - 0.15%

The percentage of Christians by Australian state/territory is as follows:

• New South Wales - 47.6%
  
• Queensland - 45.7%
• Western Australia - 41.1%
  
• Victoria - 40.9%
• Northern Territory - 40.5%
  
• South Australia - 40.0%
  
• Tasmania - 38.4%
• Australian Capital Territory - 38.1%

The 2021 Australian Census data can be found here.

Australia 2021 Census Data Released - Number of Self-Reported Latter-day Saints

Today, the Australian government released a breakdown of the religious affiliation of the Australian population per the 2021 census data. A total of 57,868 people self-identified as Latter-day Saints on the 2021 census constituting approximately 0.23% of the Australian population. The Church reported a total of 155,383 members in Australia as of year-end 2021. Thus, only 37.2% of Church-reported membership self-affiliated on the 2021 census. In contrast, the 2016 Australian Census reported 60,864 Latter-day Saints, or 41% of Church-reported membership at the time. There have generally been steady increases in the number of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints on the census in Australia during the past 35 years (35,500 in 1986, 45,200 in 1996, 53,100 in 2006). However, annual Church-reported membership growth rates have decreased considerably since the mid-1980s from 3-5% for most years in the 1980s to 2-3% in the 2000s and 1-2% for most years since 2015. The decrease of approximately 3,000 self-reported Latter-day Saints in Australia is probably best explained by slowing membership growth rates during the past five years compounded by member attrition due to the COVID-19 pandemic, youth who do not remain active into adulthood, children of record who are not baptized prior to age 9, adults who leave the faith, deaths of active members, and probable decreasing numbers of children of record increase.

The 2021 census numbers also provide interesting insights into the ethnicity of Australian Latter-day Saints. These data indicate Australian natives constitute 72.4% of Christians in Australia, whereas Australian natives constitute only 58.3% of Latter-day Saints in Australia. The most striking demographic finding is that only 2.73% of Australian Christians are from Oceania (outside of Australia), whereas 29.4% of Australian Latter-day Saints are from Oceania (outside of Australia). This supports data I have collected from hundreds of returned missionaries and local members in Australia that indicate Polynesians constitute a disproportionate percentage of Latter-day Saints in many Australian congregations. Furthermore, local members have reported that language-specific congregations for specific Polynesia peoples (i.e., Tongan and Samoan) often have significantly higher member activity rates compared to general English-speaking congregations in Australia. There has also been an increase in the number of language-specific units in Australia during the past five years for Samoan and Tongan speakers. Since year-end 2016, four new Samoan-speaking and two new Tongan-speaking congregations have been organized, whereas there have been one Samoan-speaking and one Tongan-speaking congregation discontinued. In contrast, there have been a total of 15 new English-speaking congregations in Australia created and 20 English-speaking congregations closed during the same time period.

The 2021 Australian Census data can be downloaded here.

2015 Philippine Census Data - Number of Self-affiliated Latter-day Saints by Administrative Division

The Philippine government recently released statistics regarding the number of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints in each of the 101 administrative divisions of the Philippines. These statistics were gathered as part of the 2015 census. Government census data shed insight into member activity rates in the Philippines when these data are compared to the number of church-reported members (e.g. individuals listed on church records regardless of self-affiliation or active participation in church activities). See below for a map that displays the number of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints by administrative division, and the percentage of Latter-day Saints in each administrative division.

LDS Membership and Government Census Data - Australia, Canada, Finland, New Zealand, Philippines, and Scotland

Several governments have recently conducted censuses in which information on self-identified religious affiliation is gathered. Below are a list of countries where there have been recent figures released regarding the number of people who identify as Latter-day Saint on the census. These are new figures that I have not reported before on this site or cumorah.com. Previous data regarding Latter-day Saints and census data can be obtained here. The year of this data was obtained is provided in parentheses after the country name. Moreover, the percentage of church-reported membership who self-identify on the census is provided in parentheses after the government reported number of Latter-day Saints.

• Australia (2016): 60,864 (41%)
• Canada (2011): 105,365 (57%)
• Finland (2009): 3,239 (71%)
• New Zealand (2013): 40,728 (36%)
• Philippines (2015): 196,303 (27%)
• Scotland (2011): 4,651 (17%)

Census data provide valuable information regarding member activity rates in the LDS Church as people voluntarily provide information about their current religious affiliation. It is interesting to note that many Latter-day Saints on church records not only do not regularly attend church but also do not even identify as a Latter-day Saint anymore. Based upon the small sample of countries with the number of self-identified Latter-day Saints reported by the census, there does not appear to be a correlation with secularism and self-affiliation of nominal Latter-day Saints on government censuses. 

Concerning Results from 2010 Brazilian Census

The Brazilian Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística recently released 2010 census statistics on religious affiliation in Brazil.  The census found that 225,695 people identified as Latter-day Saint whereas the Church reported 1,138,740 members in Brazil in 2010.  These findings indicate that self-identified Latter-day Saints on the census account for only 20% of total membership officially reported by the Church in Brazil.  Furthermore, the percent of official LDS membership self-affiliating as Latter-day Saint on the census has declined over the past decade.  The 2000 Brazilian census reported 199,645 Latter-day Saints, or 26% of LDS membership reported for that year (775,822).  It is unclear whether there were any changes in reporting membership for various religious groups between 2000 and 2010 on the census, but other religious groups did not appear to exhibit any major increase or decline due to changes in reporting religious data.

The most concerning finding in comparing official LDS membership data and Brazilian census religious data is that the Church reported that membership increased by 362,918 members between 2000 and 2010 yet the censuses for these two years indicate a mere 26,050 increase in self-identified Latter-day Saints.  In other words, the increase in census-reported Latter-day Saints was only seven percent of the membership increase reported by the Church!

To the contrary, Protestants have experienced major growth reflected in both church-reported members and census-reported members.  In the past 30 years, the Brazilian census has revealed that the percentage of Protestants in the population increased from 6.6% to 22.2%.  LDS Church-reported membership constitutes less than one percent of the Brazilian population and census-reported LDS numbers comprise close to one-tenth of one percent of the total population.

LDS Membership by Mexican State: 2010 Mexican Census

The Instituto Nacional de Información Estadística y Geográfica has recently published 2010 census results on religious affiliation in Mexico at http://www.inegi.org.mx/.  The census counted 314,932 self-identified Latter-day Saints in Mexico compared to 205,229 Latter-day Saints in 2000, a 53.5% increase over the decade whereas officially reported LDS membership statistics for Mexico reported 1,234,545 members in 2010 and 884,071 members in 2000, a 39.6% increase during the same time period.  Despite this increase in the number of members identifying as Latter-day Saints in the census, nearly 69% of the increase in membership between 2000 and 2010 reported by the LDS Church was unaccounted for in the 2010 census.  The percentage of members reported by the LDS Church who self identified on the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses slightly increased from 23.2% to 25.5%.

Below is a list of Mexican states ranked by the number of self-identified Latter-day Saints on the 2010 Mexican census.

1. México - 44,015
2. Distrito Federal - 28,440
3. Veracruz - 24,063
4. Puebla - 18,722
5. Chihuahua - 16,493
6. Nuevo León - 15,579
7. Tamaulipas - 13,235
8. Baja California - 12,712
9. Hidalgo - 11,828
10. Coahuila de Zaragoza - 11,698
11. Sonora - 11,252
12. Yucatán - 10,547
13. Oaxaca - 10,222 
14. Jalisco - 9,158
15. Sinaloa - 8,672
16. Chiapas - 8,501
17. Morelos - 7,712
18. Quintana Roo - 6,517
19. Guanajuato - 5,588
20. Guerrero - 5,584
21. Tabasco - 4,691
22. Durango - 4,314
23. Michoacán - 4,192
24. San Luis Potosí - 3,634
25. Querétaro - 3,300
26. Campeche - 3,133
27. Aguascalientes - 2,265
28. Baja California Sur - 2,006
29. Tlaxala - 1,991
30. Nayarit - 1,843
31. Zacatecas - 1,632
32. Colima - 1,393

The percentage of self-identified Latter-day Saints by state varied significantly on the 2010 census, with Yucatán (one member per 185 inhabitants) possessing the highest percentage of members whereas Michoacán (one member per 1,038) possessing the lowest.  Overall there was one Latter-day Saint per 357 inhabitants in Mexico as a whole according to the 2010 Mexican census.  One in 91 Mexicans is nominally affiliated with the LDS Church. 

Lastly, the map below provides the ratio of LDS members to the general population by Mexican state. Red indicates one member per 249 or fewer inhabitants, yellow indicates one member per 250-499 inhabitants, green indicates one member per 500-749 inhabitants, and blue indicates one member per 750 or more inhabitants.


View Percent LDS by Mexican State in a larger map