Response to Mormons Are No Longer a Majority in Utah: Causes, Consequences, and Implications for the Sociology of Religion

Introduction

Published online on December 19th, 2023, the article Mormons Are No Longer a Majority in Utah: Causes, Consequences, and Implications for the Sociology of Religion by Ryan T. Cragun, Bethany Gull, and Rick Phillips reports a recent study conducted to ascertain the percentage of members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in the population of Utah. This is a significant study that highlights the discrepancy between Church-reported membership and the actual numbers of self-identified Latter-day Saints. Declining fertility in the Church, higher numbers of non-Latter-day Saints moving to Utah, and secularization were identified as factors that have contributed to the declining percentage of Latter-day Saints in Utah in recent decades.

It is important to note that the article does not focus on the member activity rates of Latter-day Saints in Utah, but instead focuses on self-affiliation among Latter-day Saints in Utah. Thus, there are individuals who may not self-affiliate as a Latter-day Saint who are reported on Church records as members. Furthermore, some self-affiliated Latter-day Saints are inactive (i.e., do not attend church). Nevertheless, self-affiliation is a useful metric to ascertain member activity rates. Similarly, member activity rates can also provide useful and accurate information regarding self-affiliation. However, these terms are not interchangable.

Self-Affiliation and Member Activity

The Cragun, Bull, and Phillips study concluded that 42% of the population of the State of Utah in 2022 self-identified as a Latter-day Saint. Member activity rates in Utah have generally averaged approximately 50% with significant variability depending on county and region in the state. For example, the Utah South Area had the highest sacrament meeting attendance in the worldwide Church in the year 2000 of more than 54% of total membership. Some stakes and wards in Utah today have member activity rates of 80-90% of total membership, whereas others may be as low as 20-30% of total membership. Overall, approximately 40% of Church-reported membership in the United States is active which I am defining as attending church on a regular basis (this activity rate estimate is based on thousands of surveys completed in the past 10 years from local members/leaders and returned missionaries). Assuming 50% of Church-reported membership in Utah is active (as member activity rates in Utah are higher than most states outside of Utah), then 32.1% of the population in the State of Utah would be active members. The Cragun, Bull, and Phillips study reported that 42% of the state population self-affiliate as Latter-days Saints. Therefore, Church-reported members who are inactive and who still self-affiliate as a Latter-day Saint would be approximately 10% of the state population, or 338,080 people. Therefore, three-quarters of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints would be estimated to be considered active, whereas one-quarter of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints would be estimated to be inactive. These data also indicate that 22% of the state population are on Church records as members but who are inactive and do not self-affiliate as Latter-day Saints. Therefore, approximately one-third of the population of the State of Utah are active Latter-day Saints, one-third of the state population are inactive Latter-day Saints (of whom approximately one-third still self-affiliate as a Latter-day Saint), and one-third of the state population are not Church members at all. 

Trends on Growth

The population of the State of Utah increased from 1.72 million in 1990 to 3.38 million in 2022 per US census bureau statistics and estimates. Utah's population grew by 29.6% in the 1990s, 23.8% in the 2000s, and 18.4% in the 2010s. Church membership in Utah increased from 1.31 million as of year-end 1989 to 2.17 million as of year-end 2022. Therefore, the population of the State of Utah grew by 96.2% (1.66 million) between 1990 and 2022, whereas Church-reported membership for the State of Utah grew by 66.6% (868,560 members) between year-end 1989 and year-end 2022. In other words, for everyone one Latter-day Saint added in Utah there were approximately two non-Latter-day Saints added in Utah. Annual membership growth rates in Utah generally averaged around 2% for most of the 1990s, 1.5-2.0% in the 2000s, 1-5% in the 2010s, and less than 1% in the 2020s. By decade, Church membership in Utah grew by 23.0% in the 1990s, 17.4% in the 2000s, and 12.8% in the 2010s. It is important to note that the rate of growth for both Church membership and the state population has decelerated during the past three decades.

The number of congregations in Utah has increased every year since the Church began to publish the number of congregations in Utah in 1987 (except for 2011 when there was a significant realignment of young single adult [YSA] wards and student wards with the advent of YSA stakes). The rates for congregational growth have closely mirrored membership growth rates during the past 20 years. Consequently, the average number of Latter-day Saints per ward or branch in Utah has remained stable for the past 20 years at approximately 400 members. The number of stakes in Utah has also consistently increased year-over-year for the past several consecutive decades, indicating increasing numbers of active members, as both stakes and congregations require certain numbers of active members to operate and to create new congregations. Since 2000, the Church in Utah has reported a net increase of 7-8 stakes on average per year, with one year reporting a net increase of as few as 2 stakes (2012) whereas other years reporting a net increase of as many as 13 stakes (2000). In 2023, there have been seven stakes discontinued and 11 new stakes organized in Utah based on the most recent updates I have received on stake creations and consolidations for the year.

Have Latter-day Saints Ever Been a Majority in Utah?

I argue that active Latter-day Saints have been a minority in Utah for the entire past 100 years. If using a member activity rate of 50% since 1920, there has never been a year when active Latter-day Saints have constituted a majority of the population in the State of Utah (the highest year would have been 1987 when 39% of the population appeared to be active Latter-day Saints). If we were to assume that the rates of self-affiliation among all Church-reported members (which would be 66.6%) have been stable during the past 40 years, then the only years when this number was over 50% were from 1987-1993, with the highest percentage being in 1987 at 51.3%. However, it is probable that the rates of self-affiliation among inactive Latter-day Saints has decreased in recent decades, especially given rates of self-affiliation reported by other students cited in the Cragun, Bull, and Phillips article. For example, the American Religious Identification Survey (ARIS) estimated that 53% of population of the State of Utah were Mormon in 2001. The Cragun, Bull, and Phillips study assumes a linear decrease between 2001 and 2022, and this would therefore indicate that the percentage of self-affiliated Latter-day Saints in the Utah population fell below 50% in 2007.

Conclusion

Unfortunately, I am not aware of any studies that have exclusively assessed self-affiliation of Latter-day Saints with an appreciable sample size in the thousands of participants. Thus, the Cragun, Bull, and Phillips study provides a major contribution to ascertaining self-affiliation in Latter-day Saints through original research (we have generally had to rely upon government censuses for data on self-affiliation). It is a clear finding that the percentage of Latter-day Saints in Utah has steadily decreased. Per official Church records, the percentage of Latter-day Saints in Utah declined from 77.7% in 1987 (an all-time high for the percentage of Latter-day Saints in the past century) to 64.2% as of year-end 2022. Non-church sources have also reported a decline in the percentage of Latter-day Saints in Utah. Given increasing numbers of non-Latter-day Saints and inactive members, the Church has appeared to place a greater emphasis on missionary work in Utah through the assignment of larger numbers of full-time missionaries and the creation of new missions. In 1987, there were only two missions in Utah, whereas there were only five missions in Utah between 1999 and 2009. However, there have been 10 missions in Utah since 2015, with plans to organize three more missions in 2024. Thus, the Church has begun to treat Utah much more like any other state in the United States in regard to missionary efforts, albeit that Utah now stands out as having a disproportionate number of missions for its comparatively tiny population. For example, 13 of the Church's 120 missions in the United States that are anticipated to be operating by July 2024 will be in Utah (10.8%) even though the population of Utah constitutes a mere 1.0% of the population of the United States. In contrast, California is the most populous state in the United States with 39 million inhabitants (11.7% of the national population), and 13.3% (16) of the Church's 120 missions will be based in California. These efforts to concentrate a disproportionate amount of mission resources to Utah appears geared toward the reactivation of inactive members who appear to number more than one million and proselyte the more than one million people who are not on the records of the Church.

36 New Missions to be Created in 2024 Analysis: North America

This is the fourth and final post in a serious of posts regarding the 36 new missions to be organized in 2024. This post provides an analysis of new missions to be organized in North America.

There will be 10 new missions organized in North America in 2024 - all of which will be located in the United States. Seven of the new missions have never previously operated, whereas three of the new missions will be reinstated from missions that previously closed. The number of missions in the United States will total 120 once the 10 new missions are organized. Even though the Church will report a new all-time high for the number of missions once the 36 new missions are organized in 2024, the number of missions in the United States will not be an all-time high. The Church reported its all-time high for the number of missions in the United States in 2016-2017 when there were 125 missions. Thus, the Church has been decreasing its percentage of worldwide missions in the United States within approximately the past decade from 29.7% in 2017 to what will be 26.7% in 2024. This decrease reflects greater efforts to redistribute missions worldwide from less productive and/or less populated areas to more productive and/or more populated areas and also increases in the number of full-time missionaries serving from countries outside of the United States. In 2024, the average mission in the United States will have 2.8 million people within its geographical boundaries.

CALIFORNIA MODESTO

The California Modesto Mission will be a reinstatement of the previous California Modesto Mission that briefly operated from 2015 until 2018. The new mission will likely be organized from the California Fresno Mission (organized in 1975) and the California Sacramento Mission (organized in 1942) and include six stakes within the Modesto and Stockton area (which was what the boundaries of the mission were when it operated from 2015-2018). The Church announced a temple for Modesto in April of 2022). Slight decline or stagnant growth has occurred for the Church in the Modesto area of California for decades, although no stakes have ever been discontinued in what will be the likely boundaries of the new mission. The most recently organized stake in the area is the Turlock California Stake which was organized in 1986. With the creation of the new mission, there will now be 16 missions in California, with the average mission having 2.4 million people within its geographical boundaries. The Church in California has experienced a significant decline within the past decade (2013-2022) in particular, as Church membership has decreased from 780,200 to 728,995 (6.6%), the number of congregations has decreased from 1,355 to 1,134 (16.3%), the number of stakes decreased from 157 to 146 (7.0%), and the number of missions has decreased from 19 to 15 (21%) even though the state population has increased from 38.4 million to 39.0 million.

FLORIDA TALLAHASSEE

The Florida Tallahassee Mission will be a reinstatement of the previous Florida Tallahassee Mission that operated from 1971 until 2019. The new mission will probably be organized from the Alabama Birmingham Mission (organized in 1979) and the Florida Jacksonville Mission (organized in 1987) and will probably comprise the same boundaries of the original Florida Tallahassee Mission with six stakes - four in the Florida panhandle and two in Alabama. The Church has experienced slow growth in this area of Florida and in southern Alabama during the past several decades, with the most recently organized stake being the Fort Walton Beach Florida Stake (organized in 1996). The Tallahassee Florida Temple was announced in April 2020 and construction is nearly complete. There will be five missions in Florida once the new mission is organized (which is the previous all-time high for the number of missions in the state). The average mission in Florida will have 4.4 million people within its geographical boundaries. A second mission in the Orlando area appears most likely if the Church organizes a sixth mission in Florida in the foreseeable future due to significant growth in this area in terms of congregations and stakes.

MONTANA MISSOULA

The Montana Missoula Mission will be the Church's second mission to ever operate in Montana following the Montana Billings Mission (organized in 1950). The new mission will likely include at least four stakes in western Montana and probably additional stakes between Missoula and Billings. The most recently organized stake in the Missoula area was created in Frenchtown in 2017, whereas the Missoula Montana Stake is the oldest stake in the Missoula area (organized in 1957). The average mission in Montana will likely have approximately 560,000 people within its geographical boundaries. The Church announced a temple for Missoula in April 2022.

NEVADA HENDERSON

The Nevada Henderson Mission will be the Church's fourth mission in Nevada following the Nevada Las Vegas Mission (organized in 1975), the Nevada Las Vegas West Mission (organized in 1997), and the Nevada Reno Mission (organized in 2012). The new mission will likely have eight stakes within its geographical boundaries - the oldest of which was organized in 1956. Steady growth has occurred in the Henderson area and in southern Las Vegas for many years, and the two most recently created stakes were organized in 2015 and 2017. No missions have ever been discontinued in Nevada. With the creation of the new mission, the average mission in Nevada will have 794,000 people within its geographical boundaries.

SOUTH CAROLINA CHARLESTON

The South Carolina Charleston Mission will be the Church's second mission to ever operate in South Carolina following the South Carolina Columbia Mission (organized in 1975). The Church has never discontinued a mission in South Carolina. The Church only operates one stake in Charleston which was created in 1972. However, the stake has steady grown to 10 wards and three branches and appears likely to divide in the near future. The new mission will likely include 4-5 stakes on the coast of South Carolina and Georgia, the most recently organized of which was created in 2019 in Hilton Head. Charleston is a less likely location to have a temple announced. The average mission in South Carolina will have 2.6 million people once the new mission is organized.

TEXAS DALLAS SOUTH

The Texas Dallas South Mission will likely be organized from the Texas Dallas Mission (organized in 1961), the Texas Fort Worth Mission (organized in 1986) and possibly the Texas Dallas East Mission (organized in 2020). The new mission will probably include 5-6 stakes in the southern Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area which is an area of the metropolitan area that has fewer Latter-day Saints than most other areas of the metropolitan area.

TEXAS EL PASO

The Texas El Paso Mission will be organized from the New Mexico Albuquerque Mission (organized in 1975) and may also include the Fort Stockton Texas District that is currently assigned to the Texas Lubbock Mission (organized in 2002). The new mission will likely include the three stakes in El Paso and the stake in Las Cruces New Mexico (organized in 1974). The first stake in El Paso was organized in 1952 followed by two additional stakes created in 1982 and 2016. The new mission may also include the Silver City Mexico Stake (organized in 1983) which is assigned to the Arizona Tuscon Mission (organized in 1990). With the creation of the two new missions, there will be 12 missions in Texas. Thus, the average mission will have 2.5 million people within its geographical boundaries.

UTAH SALT LAKE CITY EAST

The Utah Salt Lake City East Mission will be a reinstatement of the Utah Salt Lake City East Mission which operated from 2013 until approximately 2019 when there was a realignment of missions in the Salt Lake City area and the mission was merged with the Utah Salt Lake City Mission (organized in 1980). The new mission will likely include 30-40 stakes within its geographical boundaries. The Church has reported a slight decline in the number of stakes in this area of the Salt Lake City metropolitan area within the past decade.

UTAH SARATOGA SPRINGS

The Utah Saratoga Springs Mission will be a new mission that has never operated before in Utah. The new mission will likely be organized from Utah Orem Mission (organized in 2015). The new stake will likely include 20-40 stakes in northern Utah county. Rapid growth has occurred in this area of Utah, with often multiple new stakes organized each year due to significant home construction.

UTAH SPANISH FORK

The Utah Spanish Fork Mission will also likely be organized from the Utah Provo Mission (organized in 1989). The new mission will likely have 30-40 stakes within its geographical boundaries. Steady growth has occurred for the Church in southern Utah county.

There will be 13 stakes in Utah once the three new missions are organized - an all-time high for the number of missions in the state. The average mission in Utah will include a mere 260,000 people. Given Church membership constitutes 64.3% of the state population, the average mission may include less than 100,000 people who are not Latter-day Saints on Church records. These Utah missions will likely be heavily involved with reactivation work among less-active and inactive members which likely number over one million for the state. The number of stakes and congregations has steadily grown year over year with only one exception in 2011 when there was a decline in the number of congregations due to massive realignment of stakes and wards to organize young single adult (YSA) stakes.

New Missionary Training Center to Open in Bangkok, Thailand

Today, the Church announced plans to open a new missionary training center in Bangkok, Thailand in January 2024. Likely a long-term plan part of the large newly dedicated Bangkok Thailand Temple, the new Thailand MTC will likely service missionaries assigned to serve in Southeast Asia. The missionary training center is reported to provide instruction in English, Thai, and Russia. I am not sure why Russian is one of the languages that is provided for training in this MTC. The Church has never operated an MTC in Thailand before. With the new MTC, there will now be 10 MTCs in the worldwide Church, although there are a couple of unofficial MTCs that functioning in countries without an official MTC (such as in Kinshasa, the DR Congo).

36 New Missions to be Created in 2024 Analysis: Latin America

This post provides an analysis of new missions to be created in Latin America in 2024, as announced by the Church on November 1st. 

All new missions to be organized in Latin America in 2024 are new missions that have never previously operated. The Church in Latin America has experienced steady growth in the number of missions with only rare instances when a mission has been discontinued. The number of missions in Latin America has increased from 64 as of year-end 1989 to 103 in 1999, 108 in 2009, 150 in 2019, and 152 at present. There will be 161 missions when the nine new missions are organized in 2024.

ARGENTINA TUCUMAN

The Argentina Tucumán Mission will be created from a division of the Argentina Salta Mission (organized in 1988) and possibly also part of the Argentina Cordoba Mission (organized in 1962). The new mission will probably include four stakes and one district located in Tucumán, Catamarca, Santiago del Estero, and La Rioja Provinces which have a combined population of 3.6 million. There are two stakes in Tucumán that were organized in 1980 and 1994. Provinces likely to be assigned to the new mission have some of the lowest estimated percentages of Latter-day Saints in Argentina (less than 1% of the population). Stagnant congregational growth has occurred in the Tucumán area for many years. Slow membership growth has occurred in Argentina for many years, and annual membership growth rates have been less than 1% for several consecutive years now. As of year-end 2022, the Church reported 474,985 Latter-day Saints and 78 stakes in Argentina. There will be 14 missions in Argentina once the new mission is organized. The Church has only once ever discontinued a mission in Argentina, which was the Argentina Posadas Mission (operated from 2013 until 2019). When the new mission is organized next year, the average Argentine mission will have 3.3 million people within its geographical boundaries.

BOLIVIA COCHABAMBA SOUTH

The Bolivia Cochabamba Mission will be created from the Bolivia Cochabamba Mission (organized in 1977) and possibly the Bolivia La Paz El Alto Mission (organized in 2015). There are currently seven stakes in Cochabamba which were organized in 1979, 1984, 1993, 1995, 2012, and 2017 (2). The new mission will likely include multiple stakes in Cochabamba as well as stakes and districts in southern Bolivia, such in Tarija (two stakes organized in 1996 and 2016), Sucre (organized in 1996), and Potosí (organized in 1995), and three districts in Bermejo, Tupiza, and Yacuiba. It is unclear whether the stake in Oruro (organized in 1980) and the district in Llallagua may be reassigned to one of the missions in Cochabamba. The new Bolivia Cochabamba South Mission will be the Church's sixth mission in Bolivia, and each of the three largest metropolitan areas in Bolivia will have two missions. The average mission will have 2.1 million people once the new mission is organized. Annual membership growth rates in Bolivia have typically ranged from 1.5-2.5% in the past decade. Slow congregational growth has occurred in the Bolivia Cochabamba Mission for many years. There were 221,030 Latter-day Saints and 33 stakes in Bolivia as of year-end 2022.

BRAZIL MANAUS SOUTH

The Brazil Manaus South Mission will be the Church's 37th mission in Brazil. One of the most highly anticipated new missions to be organized, the new mission will be organized from a division of the massive Brazil Manaus Mission (organized in 1990) which at present has 12 stakes and one district. The mission currently has approximately seven million people within its geographical boundaries. Thus, the new mission will likely include approximately 3.5 million people, half of the nine stakes in Manaus, and stakes in Porto Velho (organized in 1996) and Rio Branco (organized in 1995). The first stake was organized in Manaus in 1988 followed by additional stakes in 1993, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2012. The Church in Brazil has been the country with the second most missions (after the United States) for many years. Once the new mission is organized, the average Brazilian mission will have 5.8 million people within its geographical boundaries. The newest missions to have been organized in Brazil after 2013 include the Brazil Rio de Janeiro South Mission (organized in 2018) and the Brazil Recife South Mission (2020). Annual membership growth rates have slowed significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil to approximately 1% a year. Stagnant congregational growth has occur in Manaus for many years. There are nearly 1.5 million Latter-day Saints, 285 stakes, and 39 districts in in Brazil.

CHILE LA SERENA

The Chile La Serena Mission will be the Church's 11th mission in Chile. The new mission will be organized from a division of the Chile Viña del Mar Mission (organized in 1979) and the Chile Antofagasta Mission (organized in 1988). The new mission will likely include three stakes and three districts in northern Chile. There are two stakes in the La Serena area which were organized in 1988 and 2014 (the latter of which was first organized in 1993 but was discontinued in 2002). The new mission was likely organized to reduce long distances to travel for mission leadership and missionaries in northern Chile. Essentially stagnant growth has occurred for the Church in northern Chile for decades. With the creation of the new mission, the average mission in Chile will have 1.8 million people within its geographical boundaries. The Church most recently organized a new mission in Chile in 2013 (Chile Santiago South). Annual membership growth rates in Chile have typically ranged from 0-1% for the past 20 years. The Church reported 604,302 members and 572 congregations as of year-end 2022. There are currently 77 stakes and 12 districts in Chile.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SANTO DOMINGO NORTH

The Dominican Republic Santo Domingo North Stake will be the Church's fourth mission in the Dominican Republic following the Dominican Republic Santo Domingo West Mission (organized in 1981), the Dominican Republic Santiago Mission (organized in 1987), and the Dominican Republic Santo Domingo East Mission (organized in 1991). The average mission in the Dominican Republic will now have 2.8 million people within its geographical boundaries. There are 14 stakes in the greater Santo Domingo area. The two missions headquartered in Santo Domingo currently administer six districts and one stake in the southern Dominican Republic. The new mission will probably include 4-6 stakes in northern Santo Domingo as well as one district just north of Santo Domingo that was recently reinstated (Monte Plata). Moreover, the new mission may also include one or two districts currently assigned to the southern Dominican Republic Santiago Mission (Bonao and Cotuí). As of year-end 2022, the Church reported 147,566 Latter-day Saints, 22 stakes, and 8 districts in the Dominican Republic. Slow membership growth has occurred for most years in the past couple decades in the Dominican Republic, especially since 2020. The Church most recently created a stake in Santo Domingo in 2019.

ECUADOR QUITO WEST

The Ecuador Quito West Mission will be the Church's seven mission in Ecuador following the Ecuador Quito Mission (organized in 1970), the Ecuador Guayaquil South Mission (organized in 1979), the Ecuador Guayaquil North Mission (organized in 1991), the Ecuador Guayaquil West Mission (organized in 2013), the Quito Ecuador North Mission (organized in 2013), and the Ecuador Guayaquil East Mission (organized in 2020). The new mission will likely be created from a division of the two missions in Quito. There are currently eight stakes in Quito which were organized in 1979, 1981, 1995, 1998 (2), 2009, 2013, and 2017. Currently, the two missions headquartered in Quito service a total of 15 stakes in northern Ecuador. Thus, it is likely that the new Quito Ecuador West Mission will include approximately five stakes - two of which would be outside of Quito in Esmeraldas (a stake which is about to divide) and Santo Domingo. The Church has also expanded into the rain forest interior of northeastern Ecuador in the past couple decades, such as in cities like Coco, Nuevo Loja, and Shushufindi. The average mission in Ecuador will now have 2.6 million people within its geographical boundaries. The Church reported 261,767 members as of year-end 2022, and there are currently 44 stakes and 4 districts. Annual membership growth rates in Ecuador have been approximately two percent for many years.

MEXICO MEXICALI

The Mexico Mexicali Mission will be organized from the Mexico Tijuana Mission (organized in 1990) and perhaps also the Mexico Hermosillo Mission (organized in 1960). There are two stakes in Mexicali which were organized in 1977 and 1987. The new mission will likely also include the San Luis Río Colorado Mexico Stake (organized in 2009). Some districts in the northern portion of the Mexico Hermosillo Mission may be also included in the new mission. The Church in Mexicali has experienced stagnant congregational growth for decades, and it ranks as the Mexico-United States border town within Mexico that has arguably experienced the slowest growth of any city in this region notwithstanding its significant population (854,000 people as of 2020).

MEXICO PUEBLA EAST

The Mexico Puebla East Mission will be organized from a division of the Mexico Puebla South Mission (organized in 1988) and the Mexico Puebla North Mission (organized in 2012). Four new stakes and one new district have been organized within the combined areas of the two Puebla missions since the second Puebla mission was organized. There are currently nine stakes in Puebla, three in Nealticán, two in the Tlaxcala area, and one stake each in Atlixco and Tehuacán. The new mission will likely include 5-6 stakes and 1-2 districts.

With the creation of the two new missions in Mexico, there will be a total of 34 missions in Mexico, thereby resulting in the number of missions tying the previous all-time high for the most missions that have ever operated in Mexico (which was 34 from 2013 until 2018 when the Church discontinued the Mexico Ciudad Obregon Mission [organized in 2013] and the Mexico Reynosa Mission [organized in 2013]). The average mission in Mexico will have 3.8 million people within its geographical boundaries once the two new missions are organized. The Church in Mexico has reported very slow membership growth for many years. There were 1.5 million Latter-day Saints in Mexico as of year-end 2022. There are currently 229 stakes and 44 districts in Mexico.

PERU LIMA NORTHEAST

The Peru Lima Northeast Mission will be the Church's 15th mission in Peru and the seventh mission in Lima. Other mission headquartered in Lima include the Peru Lima South Mission (organized in 1959), the Peru Lima North Mission (organized in 1977), the Peru Lima East Mission (organized in 1988), the Peru Lima Central Mission (organized in 1994), the Peru Lima West Mission (organized in 2010), and the Peru Lima Limatambo Mission (organized in 2019). There are 49 stakes in the greater Lima metropolitan area - more stakes than any other metropolitan area in the world outside of Utah. The Church most recently organized new stakes in Lima in 2019. The six missions in Lima currently service a total of 55 stakes, suggesting that each of the Lima missions will have 7-8 stakes once the seventh mission is organized. The average mission in Peru will now have 2.3 million people within its geographical boundaries. Annual membership growth rates have typically ranged from 1-4% within the past 20 years. The Church reported 630,099 members as of year-end 2022. There are currently 115 stakes and 17 districts in Peru.

New Global Standards for Creating New Wards and New Stakes and Realigning Ward and Stake Boundaries

INTRODUCTION

The Church announced via letter on November 30th, 2023, to church leaders worldwide that the minimum standards for the creation of new wards and new stakes and the realignment of wards and stake boundaries will be updated, effective January 1st, 2024. Unlike previous guidelines, the new requirements will be standard for the entire Church and not have a differentiation between the Church in the United States and Canada and the Church outside of the United States and Canada. Criteria for creating and realigning wards and stakes will also include a new "participation measure" which is to aid in the assessment of the strength of wards and stakes when new units or boundary realignments are submitted for approval to Church Headquarters. The participation measure is designed to help identify "members who participate in a meaningful way and to help evaluate the strength of a boundary proposal." Participating members are considered members on Church records who:

• Pay a full or partial tithe
• Hold a current temple recommend
• Have a calling in the Church
• A new member who attends sacrament meeting in the first year after confirmation
• Enrollment in seminary for youth

The new minimum numerical requirements to create a new stake will be as follows:

• MEMBERSHIP: 2,000 (previously was 3,000 for US/Canada and 1,900 for other countries)
• ACTIVE, FULL-TITHE-PAYING MELCHIZEDEK PRIESTHOOD HOLDERS (AFTPMPH) CAPABLE OF SERVING IN LEADERSHIP POSITIONS: 150 (previously was 180 for the US/Canada and 120 for other countries)
• PARTICIPATING ADULTS: 500
• PARTICIPATING YOUTH: 100 (recommended but not required)
• NUMBER OF WARDS: 5 (unchanged requirement)

The new minimum numerical requirements to create a new ward will be as follows:

• MEMBERSHIP: 250 (previously was 300 for US/Canada and 150 for other countries)
• AFTPMPH CAPABLE OF SERVING IN LEADERSHIP POSITIONS: 20 (previously was 20 for the US/Canada and 15 for other countries)
• PARTICIPATING ADULTS: 100
• PARTICIPATING YOUTH: 20 (recommended but not required)

ANALYSIS

This announcement marks the most significant update to the minimum standards for the creation of new stakes and wards in decades. Previous updates have periodically occurred, and these updates have usually required higher standards for wards, stakes, and branches to operate. These updates have focused on the creation of high-quality new wards and stakes that are more resistant to future problems with sustainability with leadership. Efforts to make these standards more stringent have appeared to have been effective, as it is now rare for a stake to be discontinued within 10 years after its organization (and this has usually occurred due to members moving away). The November 30th letter does not mention whether there will be any changes to the current requirement of a certain ratio being achieved of AFTPMPH to general membership (which has been one for every 20 members). Furthermore, these changes do not appear to change the minimum requirements to organize branches in stakes (currently 20 total members and four AFTPMPH) which has been the same for the entire Church. As for standards for branches to operate in missions or districts, there is no minimum standard, although it is advised that there are at least one AFTPMPH and four total priesthood holders (of any office). There is no minimum number of branches required to create a district, although districts usually have at least three branches. No information was provided in regard to whether these changes may affect the requirements for the organization of language-specific wards and stakes.

The following information is based upon my own observations and opinions of more than 20 years of research and study regarding the growth of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

Why Make the Requirements Universal and Why Now?

The Church outside of the United States in most countries has significantly strengthened within the past 20 years. This has been attested by the increase in the number of stakes and thousands of reports from returned missionaries and local members and church leaders. It is now common for many wards in Latin America to be the same size (in terms of active members) as wards in the United States, whereas this use to be uncommon. In most countries with the most Latter-day Saints, conditions have improved to where it is more feasible for higher standards to be implemented for new stakes and wards than it was previously. The Church has made increasing efforts to bridge the gap between the Church in the United States and Canada and the rest of the world. Some other examples include severing ties with the Boy Scouts of America and introducing a standardized program for youth and children for the entire Church, the announcement of scores of new temples in recent years outside of the United States and Canada in locations that previously would have been unlikely to have temples announced, and the implementation of worldwide post-secondary education programs to name some of the prominent examples I can think of). The decision to make the criteria the same for new stakes and wards to be organized regardless of geography will help continue to break down different standards and expectations for Church administration in the United States and Canada versus elsewhere. Also, there are many areas in both the United States and Canada where the previous minimum requirements to create new stakes and wards were too high to be met or were barely met with some creative boundary realignments and "gerrymandering" (such as in the maritime provinces of Canada, the Traverse City Michigan District, areas in New England with few members and slow growth). Finally, these changes will also result in a greater focus on ensuring congregations have a sizable number of active youth to permit greater fellowshipping with adolescents and children - a sensitive age group that requires special attention and care from local leaders.

How Will These Changes Affect Future Growth?

• These changes will undoubtedly result in fewer stakes and wards being organized outside of the United States and Canada, as it will take longer for total and active membership to grow to the point of being able to meet the minimal requirements.
• It is likely that stake, mission, and area leaders will organize more branches instead of wards due to less stringent criteria to organize branches instead of wards. 
• Fewer branches will be reorganized into wards outside of the United States and Canada, but more branches in the United States and Canada may not be able to be organized as wards.
  
• Prospects for most branches in Europe that have been approaching previous standards to become wards are now unlikely to become wards due to small memberships and slow growth that have placed the new standards outside of reach to achieve within the foreseeable future.
  
• Significant boundary realignments to create many new wards and stakes in the United States and Canada appears unlikely except for areas that experience significant membership growth usually due to new move-ins (new-build communities in the Intermountain West in particular). Oftentimes, wards created in new neighborhoods have higher activity rates than in more established/older neighborhoods, so the reduction in the minimum number of members needed to create a ward may result in creating congregations that are not too large because the total number of members on the records is insufficient to create more wards. Moreover, the Church may discontinue fewer wards in areas where membership has dwindled due to move-outs and gentrification of membership.
  

36 New Missions to be Created in 2024 Analysis: Asia and Europe

This post provides an analysis of new missions to be created in Asia and Europe in 2024, as announced by the Church on November 1st. 

New missions to be created in Asia and Europe in 2024 fall into three categories: reinstated missions that had previously closed (Germany Hamburg, Japan Sendai, Portugal Porto), a second mission in a country that previously had just one mission (Cambodia Phnom Penh East and Thailand Bangkok East), and new missions to be created in the Philippines (Philippines Dumaguete, Philippines General Santos, Philippines Tuguegarao). In 2010, the Church operated 36 missions in Asia, whereas there were 45 missions in Asia as of year-end 2022. However, this increase in the number of missions was primarily due to the Philippines, where the number of missions increased from 16 to 23 during this time period. In Europe, the number of missions decreased from 44 in 2010 to 37 in 2023. The Church in Europe reached an all-time high for the number of missions in 1997 when there were 55 missions. Most of the missions in Europe that have closed in the past 25 years have been in Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Switzerland, and Spain. 

The three new missions to be organized in the Philippines is a major accomplishment that has come from significant increases in the number of Filipino Latter-day Saints serving full-time missions. The Philippines Area, which includes just the country of the Philippines, set a goal in May of 2021 to have 4,600 Filipino members serving full-time missions by the end of 2022. In May 2021, there were only 1,900 Filipino members serving full-time missions, and due to the COVID-19 pandemic, only half of the congregations in the Philippines had a full-time missionary companionship assigned. Therefore, the number of Filipinos serving full-time missions increased by 142% within 2.5 years. In a letter from the area presidency dated November 3rd, 2023, the area presidency stated: 

Brothers and Sisters, we express our deepest gratitude to you for heeding this call of [President Russel M. Nelson] by achieving the area goal to reach 4600 missionary applicants. We recognize the remarkable efforts of parents, leaders, and our dear youth to strengthen the rising generation and gather scattered Israel

CAMBODIA PHNOM PENH EAST 

The Cambodia Phnom Penh East Mission will be created from a division of the Cambodia Phnom Penh Mission (organized in 1997). The Cambodia Phnom Penh Mission services only the country of Cambodia with its 16.9 million inhabitants. The new mission will likely include one stake and 1-2 districts. With such a small number of stakes and districts in Cambodia altogether at present (two stakes, three districts), the creation of a second mission in Cambodia likely signals efforts by the Church to expand outreach into additional areas of the country. Currently, the Church operates official branches in only six of the 24 provinces in Cambodia. The Church in Cambodia initially experienced rapid growth in the 1990s and 2000s, although annual membership growth rates have since slowed to 3-4%. The Church reported 16,317 Latter-day Saints in Cambodia as of year-end 2022. The first two stakes in Cambodia were organized in 2014, and the Phnom Penh Cambodia Temple was announced in 2018 and is currently under construction.

GERMANY HAMBURG 

The Germany Hamburg Mission will be a reinstatement of the former Germany Hamburg Mission (operated from 1938 until 2010). The new mission will likely be organized from the Germany Berlin Mission (organized in 1961), and it is unclear whether any areas of the Germany Frankfurt Mission (organized in 1938) may be included in the new mission. There are 83.3 million people in Germany and three missions (one of which also services Austria and areas of Switzerland). The Church used to operate six missions in Germany between 1991 and 2000. It is unclear why the Church did not reopen previously closed German missions in 2013 when there was a significant increase in the number of full-time missionaries serving, although the decision to organize a fourth mission in Germany may be attributed to greater receptivity and productivity of missions in the country in many areas. The Church in Germany has experienced stagnant membership growth since 2017, with church membership hovering around 40,000 during the past five years. The Church reported 39,748 Latter-day Saints and 14 stakes in Germany in 2022. Local member reports have noted several encouraging developments in Germany in the past couple years, such as an increase in the number of convert baptisms and several branches maturing into wards due to increasing numbers of active members. The Church announced plans to build a temple in Hamburg in April of 2023. Interestingly, only one stake has ever been discontinued in Germany (Neumünster Germany Stake in 2018), and this was what used to be a second stake in the Hamburg area. Since the stake was discontinued, there has been progress with branches becoming wards in the Hamburg Germany Stake, with the stake now having nine wards and six branches, making it one of the largest stakes in Germany. The new Germany Hamburg Mission will probably have 2-4 stakes within its boundaries when it is organized.

JAPAN SENDAI

The Japan Sendai Mission will be a reinstatement of the former Japan Sendai Mission which operated from 1974 until 2019. The new mission will likely be organized from a division of the Japan Tokyo Mission (organized in 1937) and the Japan Sapporo Mission (organized in 1970) and include one stake (organized in Sendai in 1980) and four districts (all organized between 1974 and 1987. The reinstatement of the mission in Sendai will likely help relieve the administrative burden on the Japan Tokyo Mission. Stagnant congregational growth has occurred in northern Honshu for decades. The Church most recently organized a new mission in Japan in 2013 when there were 58 new missions organized worldwide. There are currently six missions in Japan that service the national population of 123 million. The Church reached an all-time high of 10 missions in Japan from 1990 to 1996. The Church in Japan has reported extremely slow membership growth for decades of 0-1% per year, although there has been stagnant membership growth in Japan since 2019. The Church reported 130,251 Latter-day Saints as of year-end 2022 (which was nearly unchanged from the 130,340 Latter-day Saints reported as of year-end 2019).

PHILIPPINES DUMAGUETE

The Philippines Dumaguete Mission will be organized from a division of the Philippines Cebu Mission (organized in 1987), the Philippines Cebu East Mission (organized in 2013), and the Philippines Bacolod Mission (organized in 1974). The announcement of a mission in Dumaguete came as a surprise to me since the Church is relatively small in the Dumaguete area. The Dumaguete Philippines Stake was organized in 2014, and there is only one district that is in relatively close proximity to Dumaguete (Tanjay). It is likely that the Philippines Dumaguete Mission will include one stake and two districts in southern Negros Island. It is unclear what the Church may do to reconfigure the boundaries of other missions in the area, such as which mission will be assigned Bohol Island (one stake, one district) and northeastern Negros Island (one stake, one district). It is my opinion that Bohol Island will likely be assigned to the Philippines Dumaugete, which would result in the new mission having two stakes and three districts. The sole stake on Bohol Island was organized in Tagbilaran in 2015. The Church has experienced slow growth in southern Negros Island and Bohol Island, although there has been progress within the past decade such as organizing the first two stakes and creating the first branches in five cities (one of which was the first branch created on Siquijor Island in 2016). Also, the southern portion of Cebu Island may be assigned to the new mission given its long distance from Cebu City and no currently established branches in this area (municipalities in the extreme southern tip of Cebu Island have a combined population of 287,000 people and no congregations). If the mission includes the provinces of Negros Oriental, Bohol, Siquijor, and the southern tip of Cebu Island, there would be 3.2 million people within the mission boundaries.

PHILIPPINES GENERAL SANTOS

The Philippines General Santos Mission will likely be primarily organized from the Philippines Davao Mission (organized in 1977), although the letter from the Philippines Area Presidency from November 3rd noted that the new mission will result in a realignment of all three current missions on Mindanao (the others being the Philippines Butuan Mission which was organized in 2006 and the Philippines Cayagan del Oro Mission which was organized in 1988). It is probable that the new mission will include at a minimum southern Mindanao Island where there are two stakes (General Santos [organized in 1995] and Digos [organized in 1992] and three districts (Cotabato, Kidapawan, and Marbel) and the Zamboanga Philippines Stake (organized in 1985). It is possible the new mission may also include the Pagadian Philippines District. The new mission will likely include most of the traditionally Muslim areas of the southern Philippines, such as in the Cotabato area and the Sulu Archipelago (the latter of which has no official Church presence). The Sulu Archipelago has a combined population of 2.0 million people, Zamboanga Sur Province has 2.0 million people, and provinces in southern Mindanao near General Santos have 2.5 million people. Thus, the new mission will probably have 6.5 million people within its boundaries. Slow growth has occurred within this area of Mindanao, with no new stakes or districts organized for nearly 30 years. The new mission will likely allow for greater mission outreach in the area which has probably been lesser reached due to greater growth that has occurred in other areas of Mindanao, such as in Davao and in the Philippines Butuan Mission. Moreover, the General Santos Philippines Stake is also close to dividing to create a second stake in the city.

PHILIPPINES TUGUEGARAO

The Philippines Tuguegarao Mission will be organized from a division of the Philippines Cauayan Mission (organized in 1990) and the Philippines Laoag Mission (organized in 2004). A fun fact with this new mission is that a previous Philippines Cauayan Mission President once played an April Fool's Day joke on his assistants and office missionaries that a mission would be organized in Tuguegarao (that was about 5-7 years ago if I remember correctly). The new mission will likely include the two stakes in Tuguegarao (organized in 1989 and 2011), the Ballesteros Philippines Stake (organized in 2019), and two districts (Aparri and Gonzaga). It is also possible the new mission may include the Ilagan Philippines Stake (organized in 2000) and the Roxas Philippines Isabela District, although this stake and this district are within close proximity of Cauayan. It may make sense to relocate the Philippines Cauayan Mission to Santiago to be in a more central location (and also be in the same city where the temple will be built which was announced in October 2022). The announcement of the new mission in Tuguegarao further supports the trend of having temples and missions headquartered within the same cities (the Tuguegarao Philippines Mission was announced in April 2023). The Church has experienced steady growth in the area covered by the current Philippines Cauayan Mission and the Philippines Laoag Mission (of the 11 stakes in the two missions at present, six have been organized since 2011).

There will be 26 missions in the Philippines once the three new missions are organized. There has only been one other year when there has as many new missions organized in the Philippines (1990). The Church has never discontinued a mission in the Philippines. The first mission in the Philippines was organized in 1967. The number of missions in the Philippines increased to two in 1974, three in 1977, four in 1979, five in 1986, six in 1987, eight in 1988, nine in 1989, 12 in 1990, 13 in 1992, 14 in 2004, 15 in 2006, 16 in 2010, 17 in 2011, 21 in 2013, 22 in 2018, and 23 in 2019. The most recently created missions in the Philippines have been the Philippines Cavite Mission (2013), the Philippines Cebu East Mission (2013), the Philippines Legaspi Mission (2013), the Cabanatuan Philippines Mission (2018), and the Philippines Antipolo Mission (2019). The Church reported 853,254 Latter-day Saints in the Philippines as of year-end 2022. Currently, there are 126 stakes and 55 districts in the Philippines (soon to be 128 stakes and 53 districts on December 3rd when districts in Aguilar and Toledo will become stakes). Thus, the average Philippine mission will have five stakes and two districts when the three new missions are organized in 2024. There are 117 million in the Philippines. Thus, the average mission in 2024 will have 4.5 million people within its geographical boundaries.

PORTUGAL PORTO

The Portugal Porto Mission will be a reinstatement of the former Portugal Porto Mission (which has gone through multiple iterations of closing and reopening). The mission was first organized in 1987, closed in 2011, reinstated in 2015, and closed again in 2018. A third mission once operated in Portugal from 1990 until 2002 (Lisbon Portugal North). The Church currently has seven stakes and one district in Portugal. The reason why the Church has decided to open and close the Portugal Porto Mission is likely due to the relatively large number of congregations in Portugal that have made it challenging to administer with a single mission. It seems that this mission has reopened when there are sufficient numbers of full-time missionaries to staff a second mission in Portugal. The Church reported 46,849 Latter-day Saints in Portugal as of year-end 2022, making Portugal the European country with the third most Latter-day Saints after the United Kingdom (186,933) and Spain (63,524). Variable membership growth have occurred for the Church in Portugal in the past decade, although these annual membership growth rates have often ranged from 0-3%. There are approximately 10.2 million people in Portugal.

THAILAND BANGKOK EAST

One of the new missions that I have most anticipated for decades, the new Thailand Bangkok East Mission will be the Church's second mission in Thailand to be organized from a division of the Thailand Bangkok Mission (organized in 1973). The current Thailand Bangkok Mission includes the entire country of Thailand as well as neighboring Myanmar and Laos for a combined population of 134 million people. The new mission will likely include two stakes and one district in Thailand as well as Laos (where there is one branch in Vientiane), whereas the realigned Thailand Bangkok Mission will likely include two stakes and one district in Thailand and three mission branches in Myanmar. Currently, there are four stakes and two districts in Thailand. There were 23,450 Latter-day Saints in Thailand as of year-end 2022. The Church does not publish membership figures for Laos or Myanmar. The first stake in Thailand was organized in Bangkok in 1995, followed by two additional stakes in Bangkok that were created in 2014 and 2016. A stake was created in Ubon in 2015. The creation of the new mission in Thailand will likely help with the expansion of the Church into dozens of unreached provinces. The Church in Thailand has achieved variable membership growth rates in the past decade, although membership growth rates have typically been slow.

36 New Missions to be Created in 2024 Analysis: Africa

This post provides an analysis of new missions to be created in Africa in 2024, as announced by the Church on November 1st. 

Of the 36 new missions to be organized worldwide in 2024, nine (25%) will be organized in Africa - the most new missions ever organized in Africa in a single year. The total number of missions in Africa will increase from 45 to 54 as a result of the creation of these new missions (a 20% increase). The decision to create these new missions in Africa has been part of a broader trend in allocating larger amounts of missionary resources to Sub-Saharan Africa. For example, in 2023 the Church organized five new missions in Africa (a 12.5% increase from 2022), and all but one of the new missions organized in 2023 were in Africa (missions organized in Africa in 2023 included the Cote d’Ivoire Abidjan North Mission, the Democratic Republic of the Congo Kananga Mission, the Nigeria Aba Mission, the Nigeria Abuja Mission, and the South Africa Pretoria Mission). Other recently organized missions in Africa have included the Rwanda Kigali Mission (2022), the Cameroon Yaounde Mission (2020), the Ethiopia Addis Ababa Mission (2020), the Mozambique Beira Mission (originally intended to be organized in 2020 but actually created in 2021), Tanzania Dar es Salaam Mission (2020), the Democratic Republic of the Congo Kinshasa East Mission (2019), the Cote d'Ivoire Yamoussoukro Mission (2018), the Nigeria Ibadan Mission (2018), and the Zimbabwe Bulawayo Mission (2018). The Church operated 34 missions in Africa as of year-end 2019. Thus, the number of missions in Africa will have increased by 20 just within a five-year time period. Once the new missions are created in Africa next year, the number of missions in Africa will have doubled within the past 10 years. The population of Africa is estimated to increase from 1.17 billion to 1.49 billion from 2014 to 2024. Therefore, the average African Latter-day Saint mission in 2024 will serve a smaller population (27.7 million) than in 2014 (45 million). The significant increase in new missions in Africa appears attributed to larger number of African Latter-day Saints serving full-time missions and also efforts to redistribute missionary resources from less productive areas to more productive areas of the world. 

See below for a mission-by-mission breakdown for new missions to be organized in 2024. All African nations with at least 100,000 Latter-day Saints will have two new missions organized in 2024.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO KINSHASA SOUTH

The DR Congo Kinshasa South Mission will be the Church's third mission in the massive urban agglomeration of Kinshasa which has a population of 15 million people. The new mission will be organized from the DR Congo Kinshasa West Mission (organized in 1987) and the DR Congo Kinshasa East Mission (organized in 2019). Currently, there are 11 stakes in Kinshasa - most of which have grown quite large and appear likely to divide in the near future. The new mission may indicate plans to create additional congregations and stakes in Kinshasa given there has appeared to be a pause in new unit creations in recent months despite rapid membership growth in the country. Reports I have received have noted plans by area leadership to create additional stakes, although these plans have not yet been announced or implemented. The creation of the new mission will also help to better administer fledgling areas with a relatively recent Church establishment outside of Kinshasa, such as in the far west (e.g, Matadi, Goma, Muanda, Kimpese), west central (Bandundu, Kikwit), and north (Kisangani) areas of the DR Congo. Moreover, there remain many large cities that are entirely unreached by the Church within the boundaries of the current two Kinshasa missions (e.g., Genema, Kisantu, Mbandaka, Mbanza-Ngungu), and a new mission may help to better establish the Church in additional locations. French and Lingala are the most commonly spoken languages in the Kinshasa area.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO KOLWEZI

The DR Congo Kolwezi Mission will be created from a division of the DR Congo Lubumbashi Mission (organized in 2010). The new mission will likely include three stakes (two in Likasi, one in Kolwezi). The creation of a second stake in Kolwezi appears imminent, as the stake has grown to 12 wards and 2 branches (the stake was organized in 2019 with seven wards from a member district). The realigned DR Congo Lubumbashi Mission will probably include four stakes (all in Lubumbashi) and one district in Kasumbalesa, although two stakes in Lubumbashi appear likely to divide to create two new stakes in the immediate future. The new mission may help the Church to expand into unreached or recently reached locations in the southern areas of the DR Congo (for example, a member group was recently established in Kamina, and perhaps hundreds of isolated Latter-day Saints and prospective members have self-organized in Kikondja for decades, but are extremely remote and difficult to reach). French and Swahili are commonly spoken in the Kolwezi area. 

There will be seven missions in the DR Congo once the two new missions are organized. 2023 marks the first year the Church has organized two missions in a single year in the DR Congo. The Church organized its first mission in the country in 1987, followed by additional missions in 2010, 2016, 2019, 2023. It is also important to note that some areas of the eastern DR Congo are administered by the Rwanda Kigali Mission (organized in 2022), such as missions branches in Uvira (2), Bukavu, and Goma. No other country in the world that had only one mission in 2009 has had so many new missions organized. As of year-end 2022, there were 102,862 Latter-day Saints in the DR Congo. The population of the DR Congo is projected to be 105.6 million in 2024. Thus, the average Congolese mission will have 15 million people within its boundaries (although this is a bit of an overestimate since this calculation does not include the Rwanda Kigali Mission). The Church has reported some of its highest membership growth rates in the world in the DR Congo in recent years. 

GHANA ACCRA NORTH

The Ghana Accra North Mission will be the Church's third mission in Accra that will likely be organized from the Ghana Accra Mission (organized in 1985) and the Ghana Accra West Mission (organized in 2013). There are 12 stakes in the greater Accra metropolitan area, and the two missions also currently include five more stakes in outlying cities (e.g., Abomosu, Asamankese, Koforidua, Swedru, and Winneba). Three districts are also within the boundaries of the two current missions (Dzodze, Ho, Kpong). The Church has experienced variable growth rates in the Accra area within the past 45 years. The new mission will likely help to better saturate urban areas in Accra with more congregations and full-time missionaries, as well as to help expand into unreached areas in areas surrounding Accra (especially in the Volta Region).

GHANA TAKORADI  

The Ghana Takoradi Mission will be organized from the Ghana Cape Coast Mission (organized in 2005). The new mission will likely include two stakes (one in Mpintsin, one in Takoradi) and two districts (Axim and Tarkwa), although a third stake in the greater Takoradi area appears likely to be organized soon (the Mpintsin Ghana Stake currently has 11 wards and two branches). The new mission will likely conform to the boundaries of the Western Region of Ghana with a population of a mere 2.1 million people, thereby making the Ghana Takoradi Mission the African mission with the smallest population within its geographical boundaries. The new mission may provide for greater mission resources to expand into northern and western areas of Western Region which are minimally reached by the Church, as well as to provide greater saturation of mission resources in Takoradi. The realigned Ghana Cape Coast Mission will also have a comparatively small target population for mission outreach, with perhaps as few as 2.5 million people (making this mission the African mission with the second fewest people within its boundaries). Steady growth has occurred in the current boundaries of the Ghana Cape Coast Mission, with the most significant growth occurring during the first few years of a Church presence in the late 1970s and early 1980s and within the past 10 years. Of the seven stakes in the current boundaries of the Ghana Cape Coast Mission, four stakes have been organized since 2016. 

The Church in Ghana will have six missions in 2024, resulting in the average mission in Ghana having 5.8 million people. However, 14.2 million of the 34.8 million people in Ghana live within the boundaries of the Ghana Kumasi Mission (41%). Excluding the Ghana Kumasi Mission, the remaining Ghanaian missions will have an average of 4.1 million people within their geographical boundaries. The Church previously created missions in Ghana in 1985, 2005, 2012, and 2013. Thus, 2024 will be the first year that two missions have been organized in Ghana in the same year. The Church reported 101,924 Latter-day Saints in Ghana as of year-end 2022.

NIGERIA CALABAR MISSION

The Nigeria Calabar Mission will likely be organized from a division of the Nigeria Uyo Mission (organized in 2002) and the Nigeria Enugu Mission (organized in 1992). The new mission will probably include four stakes (three in Calabar, one in Akamkpa) and one district in Ugep - all located in the Nigerian state of Cross Rivers (population 4.4 million). The Church announced a temple for Calabar last month. Rapid growth has occurred in Cross Rivers State where the first stake was organized in 2002 followed by additional stakes in 2015, 2017, and 2022. It appears likely that 1-2 new stakes may be created in Calabar in the near future due to the steady creation of new wards in the city. The Church previously headquartered a mission in Calabar which was first headquartered in Uyo, although this mission's headquarters later returned to Uyo in 2019. The new Nigeria Calabar Mission may have the smallest population of any Nigerian mission if the mission includes just the 4.4 million people in Cross Rivers State. To put this into contrast, the total population of Nigeria is 229 million, so the Nigeria Calabar Mission may have only 1.9% of the total country population.

NIGERIA PORT HARCOURT NORTH

The Nigeria Port Harcourt North Mission will likely be organized from a division of the Nigeria Port Harcourt Mission (organized in 1988). There are seven stakes in Port Harcourt, and the current Nigeria Port Harcourt Mission also includes three additional stakes (two in southern Akwa Ibom, one in Yenagoa) and two districts (both located near Port Harcourt in Rivers State). The current mission boundaries have approximately 10 million people within its geographical boundaries in the Nigerian states of Rivers and Bayelsa, and a very small portion of the Akwa Ibom State. Thus, each mission will likely have approximately five million people. Although initial growth was relatively slow in Port Harcourt in the 1980s and 1990s, the Church has experienced rapid growth for much of the past 10-15, as the number of stakes in the city increased from three in 2011 to seven in 2021. Several stakes appear likely to be organized in the foreseeable future in Port Harcourt due to large numbers of congregations in the city. Although it is within close proximity to Aba, it appears likely that a temple will be announced one day in Port Harcourt given the large concentration of Latter-day Saints in the city and transportation challenges in Nigeria for many members. The Port Harcourt Nigeria Stake was the Church's second stake in Nigeria when it was organized in 1990. Today, there are now 70 stakes in Nigeria. Port Harcourt will the only city in Nigeria with two missions headquartered within it (although this is not the first time two missions have been based in the same Nigerian city, as the Church briefly operated two missions in Lagos approximately 10-15 years ago).

With the creation of these two new missions, there will be 11 missions in Nigeria. Current Nigerian missions were organized in 1980, 1988, 1992, 2002 (2), 2013, 2016, and 2023 (2). Thus, the number of missions in Nigeria in 2024 will be nearly twice the number of missions in 2014. Never has any country on the Afro-Eurasian landmass had as many missions as Nigeria at present (9). Even more impressive, Nigerian missions do not include North American missionaries, and they are staffed primarily by African missionaries. The average mission in Nigeria will have approximately 21 million people in 2024, although this is not a very accurate ratio since the Nigeria Abuja Mission includes approximately 117 million people within its geographical boundaries (most of whom live in states where Sharia Law is practiced and where there is no Church presence). Excluding the Nigeria Abuja Mission, the 10 missions that will operate in the remainder of Nigeria in 2024 will service 11.2 million people per mission on average. The Church reported 221,172 Latter-day Saints in Nigeria as of year-end 2022. Nigeria appears likely to become its own church area given its large Church membership and significant opportunities for growth and expansion with such a large population.

KENYA NAIROBI EAST

The Kenya Nairobi East Mission will be created from a division of the Kenya Nairobi Mission (organized in 1991). Currently, the Kenya Nairobi Mission includes the entire country of Kenya (population: 56.2 million), although the mission historically serviced the entire region of East Africa prior to the creation of the Uganda Kampala Mission (organized in 2005) and then serviced Kenya and Tanzania until the creation of the Tanzania Dar Es Salaam Mission in 2020. Thus, until 2020, the Kenya Nairobi Mission has not been able to exclusively focus its missionary resources on Kenya despite his large population. Currently, there are three stakes and six districts in Kenya. Thus, the new Kenya Nairobi East Mission will probably include 1-2 stakes and three districts. The Church in Kenya has experienced modest growth since its initial establishment in 1979, and the first stake was organized in 2001. Additional stakes were organized in 2016 and 2023. The Church reported 17,438 Latter-day Saints as of year-end 2022. However, membership and congregational growth rates have accelerated in recent years, as membership increased by 9.6% in 2022 - the highest seen in over a decade. Furthermore, the Church has organized 11 new wards and branches in Kenya thus far in 2023, including the first branches in several previously unreached cities in western Kenya. The new mission will allow for greater numbers of missionaries to serve in Kenya to further expand outreach into additional areas unreached at present by the Church, further saturate the Nairobi metropolitan area (population: 6.6 million) with more congregations, and help strengthen districts to become stakes (such as in Eldoret and Kyulu). Many large cities remained unreached by the Church in Kenya. The Church created the Africa Central Area with headquarters in Nairobi in 2020. The Nairobi Kenya Temple is under construction.

MADAGASCAR ANTANANARIVO NORTH

The Madagascar Antananarivo North Mission will be organized from a division of the Madagascar Antananarivo Mission (organized in 1998). The Madagascar Antananarivo Mission currently services several countries in addition to Madagascar (31 million people), including Mauritius (1.3 million people), Reunion (part of France with approximately 1.0 million people), Comoros (868,000 people), and Mayotte (also part of France with approximately 346,000 people). Currently, there are four stakes and two districts in Madagascar. The Church reported 14,353 Latter-day Saints in Madagascar as of year-end 2022, whereas there were less than 1,000 Latter-day Saints each in Mauritius and Reunion. There is no Church presence in Comoros or Mayotte at present. Seychelles remains unassigned to a mission, and it is possible that Seychelles may be assigned to a mission once the new mission is organized. Thus, the new mission will likely have 1-2 stakes assigned, as well as 1-2 mission branches, although it is unclear which missions may be assigned the two districts in Reunion and Mauritius. The new mission may help to expand outreach into the virtually untouched north of Madagascar where there is only one mission branch in Mahajanga. The Church in Madagascar has achieved variable growth rates since the first branch was organized in 1990. The first stake was organized in 1990 followed by additional stakes in 2011, 2022, and 2023. The Antananarivo Madagascar Temple was announced in 2021.

SIERRA LEONE BO

The Sierra Leone Bo Mission will be organized from a division of the Sierra Leone Freetown Mission (organized in 2007) which only services Sierra Leone at present. The new mission has appeared long awaited given the rapid growth of the Church in eastern Sierra Leone which went from zero stakes and four districts in 2016 to four stakes and one district today, with multiple stakes likely to divide in the near future. I have written previously about the remarkable growth of the Church in Bo where Latter-day Saints number among the largest Christian denominations in the city. The new mission will probably include four stakes and one district in eastern and southern Sierra Leone, as well as a two branches in Koidu which appears likely to become a district once 1-2 more branches are organized in the city. The first two stakes in Bo were organized in 2017 followed by a third stake in 2019, whereas the stake in Kenema was organized in 2019. Bo appears to be one of the most likely locations in Africa for a temple announcement in the near future given the growth and size of the Church in the area. The realigned Sierra Leone Freetown Mission will likely include five stakes (all located in Freetown and all organized since 2012) and one district (Makeni). Each mission will likely have 4.5 million people within its boundaries given the population of Sierra Leone is approximately nine million. All large and medium-sized cities have an official ward or branch in the prospective boundaries of the Sierra Leone Bo Mission, and the new mission may help establish the Church in many small cities throughout the region. Sierra Leone is one of the most well-reached countries of the Church in Africa in terms of the percentage of Latter-day Saints in the population (0.34%), and also considering that all cities with at least 30,000 people have at least one ward or branch (except Port Loko). Rapid growth has occurred for the Church in Sierra Leone since 2011, and the Church reported 28,867 Latter-day Saints as of year-end 2022. Currently, Sierra Leone is the country in Africa with the most Latter-day Saints with only one mission. The Freetown Sierra Leone Temple is under construction.

Additional Information on New Mission Creations and the Surge in the Number of Full-time Missionaries Serving

The Church News published an article last week that provides additional data regarding the number of missionaries serving and plans for new missions to be organized in 2024. Data not previously disclosed that is included in this article includes the following:

• Projections of small, steady increases in the number of full-time missionaries serving during the next 10 years.
• A likely need to organize more missions within the next 3-4 years.
• The worldwide number of convert baptisms in the third quarter of 2023 was higher than it was in the third quarter of 2019.
• Higher numbers of self-referrals in the media currently than in the past.
• The number of applications submitted for senior couple missionaries within the past month has exceeded anything seen in the history of the Church since Elder Rasband invited more senior couples to serve full-time missions in his General Conference address.
• Some missions have become "rather large" with the number of missionaries assigned, especially in Utah, due to the integration of service missionaries and teaching missionaries into the same missions.
  

Kinyarwanda Translation of the Book of Mormon Complete

The Kinyarwanda translation of the Book of Mormon has been completed and published online. Kinyrwanda is the primary language spoken in Rwanda. The new translation can be accessed here.

New Stakes Created in Utah (5), Chile (3), Cote d'Ivoire (2), California, Madagascar, Mexico, Missouri, Nigeria, South Carolina, and Zimbabwe; Stake Discontinued in Utah; Districts Discontinued in Australia (2), Chile, Cote d'Ivoire, Guatemala, Mexico, and Micronesia

Utah

Five new stakes were recently organized in Utah.

The South Jordan Utah Highland Park Stake was organized on August 20th from the South Jordan Utah Garden Park Stake (organized in 2017). The new stake includes the following six wards: the Highland Park 1st, Highland Park 2nd, Highland Park 3rd, Highland Park 8th, Highland Park 9th, and Highland Park 10th Wards. 

The American Fork Utah Harbor Stake was organized on September 10th from the American Fork Utah South Stake (organized in 2017). The new stake includes the following seven wards: the Harbor 1st, Harbor 3rd, Harbor 5th, Harbor 6th, Harbor 7th, Harbor 8th, and Harbor 9th Wards.

The Lewiston Utah Stake was organized on September 24th from the Richmond Utah Stake (organized in 1901) and the Benson Utah Stake (organized in 1978). The new stake includes the following seven wards: the Cornish, Cove, Lewiston 1st, Lewiston 2nd, Lewiston 3rd, Lewiston 4th, and Trenton Wards.

The Lehi Utah North Lake Stake was organized on October 29th from the Lehi Utah Jordan River Stake (organized in 2003) and the Lehi Utah South Stake (organized in 1996). The new stake includes the following seven wards: the Loch Lomond, North Lake 1st, North Lake 2nd, North Lake 3rd, North Lake 4th, North Lake 5th, and Saddle Ridge Wards.

The Lehi Utah Snow Springs Stake was organized on October 29th from the Lehi Utah Jordan River Stake (organized in 2003) and the Lehi Utah Jordan Willows Stake (organized in 2013). The new stake includes the following seven wards: the Jordan Willows 1st, Jordan Willows 2nd, Jordan Willows 7th, Lehi 25th, Pioneer Crossing, Snow Springs, and Sommerset Wards. 

A stake was discontinued in Utah.

The Salt Lake Hunter South Stake (organized in 1985) was discontinued, which had six wards prior to its discontinuation - three of which were closed and absorbed into neighboring wards (including one Spanish-speaking ward). Retained units were reassigned to the Salt Lake Hunter Stake (organized in 1964) and the Salt Lake Hunter East Stake (organized in 1977). 

There are now 633 stakes and 2 districts in Utah. There have been six stakes discontinued in Utah in 2023 - more than any other year in the history of the Church in Utah. However, there has been a net increase of four stakes in Utah in 2023 as 10 new stakes have been organized.

Chile

Three new stakes were organized in Chile, marking the first time a new stake was organized in Chile since 2015. 2023 is the year with the most new stakes organized in Chile since 1998. The creation of the new stakes indicates there has been measurable improvement with increasing the number of active members in congregations in many areas of the country, which has also been supported by the creation of new wards and branches in the past 1-2 years. This has been a welcomed development after decades of essentially stagnant growth.

The Buín Chile Stake was organized on October 8th from the Buín Chile District. All six branches became wards in the new stake, and there are a total of six wards in the stake, including the Buín, Hospital, Linderos, Los Jardines, Paine, and Viluco Wards. The Buín Chile Stake is technically a reinstatement of a previous stake that once operated in Buín from 1995 until 2002 when it was discontinued and reorganized as a district. The original stake in 1995 had five wards and three branches. The Buín Chile District was first organized in 1984.

The Arauco Chile Stake was organized on October 15th from the Coronel Chile District (organized in 2002), the Lebu Chile District (organized in 2002), and the San Pedro Chile Stake (organized in 1981). The new stake includes the following seven wards and two branches: the Arauco, Camilo Olavarria, Cañete, Curanilahue, Lagunillas, Lebú, and Lota Wards and the Coronel 1st and Los Alamos Branches. Both the Coronel Chile District and Lebu Chile District previously operated as districts prior to being organized into separate stakes from 1997 until 2002. The original Coronel Chile Stake had seven wards and three branches when it was organized in 1997, and the Coronel Chile District had four branches prior to when the new stake was organized in Arauco. The original Lebu Chile Stake had six wards and three branches when it was organized in 1997, and the Lebu Chile District had four branches prior to when the Arauco Chile Stake was recently organized (click here for more information on the original stakes created in 1997). It is important to note that many of the wards in Chile in the late 1990s had few active members, necessitating the consolidation of hundreds of congregations in the early 2000s.

The Linares Chile Stake was organized on October 29th from the Linares Chile District (first organized as a stake in 1988, reorganized as a district in 2002 when the stake was discontinued). The new stake includes the following five wards and three branches: the Cauquenes, Las Delicias, Linares, Parral, and Valentin Letelier Wards and the Colbún and Longavi Branches. The district had seven branches prior to the creation of the new stake. 

There are now 77 stakes and 12 districts in Chile.

Cote d'Ivoire

Two new stakes were created in Cote d'Ivoire.

The Bouake Cote d'Ivoire Stake was organized on August 20th from the Bouake Cote d'Ivoire District (organized in 2016), three wards formerly assigned to the Yamoussoukro Cote d'Ivoire Stake (organized in 2015), and one mission branch (the Tiebissou Branch). The new stake includes the following six wards and three branches: the Assabou, Bouake 1st, Bouake 2nd, Bouake 3rd, Habitat, and Morofe Wards and the Ahougnanssou, Bouake 4th, and Tiebissou Branches. 

The Man Cote d'Ivoire Stake was organized on October 15th, 2023 from the Man Cote d'Ivoire District (organized in 2017), the Danané Cote d'Ivoire District (organized in 2019), and the Duekoue Cote d'Ivoire District (organized in 2019). The new stake has a total of seven wards and two branches, including the Bangolo 1st, Bangolo 2nd, Danané 1st, Danané 2nd, Grand Gbapleu, Mahapleu, and Man Wards and the Doyaguine and Logouale Branches. The Danané Cote d'Ivoire District had three branches and was discontinued as part of the new stake creation, as all three branches became wards in the new stake. Two of the four branches in the Man Cote d'Ivoire District became wards, and the two units transferred from the Duekoue Cote d'Ivoire District (Bangolo 1st and Bangolo 2nd) both became wards. 

The recent creation of new stakes in Cote d'Ivoire outside of Abidjan has tended to take multiple districts to create new stakes rather than waiting for a single district to become a stake. The other stakes that operate in Cote d'Ivoire outside of Abidjan include Yamoussoukro (organized in 2015), Daloa (organized in 2017), and Gagnoa (organized in 2022). There are now five stakes that operate outside of the greater Abidjan metropolitan area.

There are now 20 stakes and 13 districts in Cote d'Ivoire. In contrast, there were only five stakes and one district in Cote d'Ivoire 10 years ago.

California

The Church organized a new stake in California on October 22nd. The Capistrano Valley California Stake was organized from the San Clemente California Stake (4 wards), the Laguna Niguel California Stake (2 wards), and the Mission Viejo California Stake (1 ward). The new stake includes the following seven wards: the Capistrano Beach, Capistrano, Covenant Hills, Dana Hills, Liberty Park, Marina Hills, and Tierra Grande Wards.

There are now 147 stakes in California. So far in 2023, no stakes have been discontinued in California.

Madagascar

The Church organized fourth stake in Madagascar (and third stake in Antananarivo) on October 22nd. The Antananarivo Madagascar Ampefiloha Stake was organized from the Antananarivo Madagascar Manakambahiny Stake (organized in 2000) and the Antananarivo Madagascar Ivandry Stake (organized in 2011). The new stake includes the following seven wards: the 67 Hectares, Ambohidrapeto, Ampefiloha, Ampitatafika, Anjanahary, Antananarivo, and Itaosy Wards. All these congregations previously operated as wards except the Ambohidrapeto Ward which previously was a branch. The Church announced the Antananarivo Madagascar Temple in October 2021. 

There are now four stakes and two districts in Madagascar.

Mexico

A new stake was created in Mexico. The México City El Lago Stake was organized from the México City Chimalhuacan District (organized in 2018 from the Mexico City La Perla Stake) and the Texcoco México District (organized in 2018 from the Mexico City Los Reyes Stake). The new stake includes the following six wards: the Arboleda, Chiautla, Ciudad Alegre, Coatlinchan, Texcoco, and Xochitenco Wards. Three of the nine original branches in the two districts were discontinued when the new stake was organized.

There are now 228 stakes and 45 districts in Mexico.

Missouri 

A new stake was created in Missouri for the first time since 2017. The Chariton River Missouri Stake was organized on November 5th from the Columbia Missouri Stake (organized in 1970) and the Nauvoo Illinois Stake (organized in 1979). The new stake includes the following five wards and two branches: the Bear Creek, Kirksville 1st, Kirksville 2nd, Mexico, and Moberly Wards and the Hannibal and Macon Branches. 

There are now 19 stakes in Missouri. Several more new stakes appear likely to be organized in Missouri the immediate future due to years of steady increases in the number of wards. Stakes that appear likely to divide include stakes in Liberty (12 wards), Farr West (11 wards, 2 branches), Springfield South (11 wards, 1 branch), and Springfield (10 wards).

Nigeria

A new stake was organized in Nigeria. The Uyo Nigeria Central Stake was organized on August 20th from a division of the Uyo Nigeria Stake (organized in 2001) and the Uyo Nigeria Ibiono Stake (organized in 2016). The new stake includes the following 10 wards: the Akwa Ima Housing Estate, Ikot Ekpene Road, Ikot Mbon Ikono, Ikpa Road 1st, Itam 1st, Itam 2nd, Jonathan Boulevard, Nkemba,
Offot 1st, and Offot 2nd Wards. With perhaps only a couple previous exceptions, the number of wards in the new stake (10) appears the largest ever included in a newly organized stake in Church history. 

There are now 70 stakes and 15 districts in Nigeria. There are many more stakes that appear likely to be organized in the immediate future in Nigeria, including from the Ikot Ekpene Nigeria Stake (11 wards, 1 branch), the Lagos Nigeria Yaba Stake (11 wards), the Umuahia Nigeria Stake (10 wards, 5 branches), the Eket Nigeria Stake (10 wards, 4 branches), the Benin City Nigeria Ugbowo Stake (10 wards, 3 branches), the Port Harcourt Nigeria West Stake (10 wards, 3 branches), the Calabar Nigeria North Stake (10 wards), and the Jos Nigeria District (8 branches).

South Carolina

A new stake was organized in South Carolina on October 22nd. The Hartsville South Carolina Stake was organized from the Columbia South Carolina Stake (organized in 1947) and the Conway South Carolina Stake (organized in 1968 and originally known as the Florence South Carolina Stake). The new stake includes the following five wards and one branch: the Camden, Elgin, Florence, Hartsville, and the Sumter Wards and the Cheraw Branch. 

There are now 10 stakes in South Carolina. One more stake appears likely to be organized in South Carolina within the foreseeable future from a division of the Charleston South Carolina Stake (10 wards, 3 branches).

Zimbabwe 

A new stake was organized in Zimbabwe. The Mutare Zimbabwe Stake was organized from the Mutare Zimbabwe District (organized in 2000). Information on which of the nine branches in the former district have become wards remains unavailable. Mutare is the fifth city in Zimbabwe to have had a stake organized.

There are now nine stakes and one district in Zimbabwe. Reports from Zimbabwean members indicate there are plans to organize two more stakes in Zimbabwe before the end of the year, with one new stake each in Harare and Bulawayo.

Australia

Two districts were discontinued in Queensland, Australia. 

The  Townsville Australia District (organized in 1964) was discontinued and consolidated with the Cairns Australia District (organized in 1974 and renamed North Queensland Australia District). No branches were discontinued as part of this consolidation, and there are now nine branches in the North Queensland Australia District. It is probable that this decision was made with the ambition to create a stake in north Queensland in the foreseeable future. 

The Rockhampton Australia District (organized in 1981) was discontinued and consolidated with the Sunshine Coast Australia Stake (organized in 1996). None of the four branches in the former Rockhampton Australia District were discontinued as part of these changes, and one of the branches (Rockhampton) was reorganized into a ward. No congregations were discontinued in the Sunshine Coast Australia Stake as part of these changes.

There are now 41 stakes and four districts in Australia.

Guatemala

The Serchil Guatemala District (1994) was discontinued and the three branches in the former district were all reassigned to the neighboring San Marcos Guatemala Stake (organized in 1984). No congregations were closed in either the former Serchil Guatemal District or in the realigned San Marcos Guatemala Stake. The decision to discontinue the district was probably due to stagnant growth for many decades, reasonably close proximity to be incorporated into a stake, and/or prospects for stake leaders to administer to local members in the area instead of mission leadership.

There are now 52 stakes and 12 districts in Guatemala.

Federated States of Micronesia

A district was discontinued in Micronesia. The Kosrae District (created in 1990) was discontinued, and the two branches in the district now are mission branches in the Micronesia Guam Mission. The decision to discontinue the district was probably to free up leadership to serve on a branch level and no reasonable prospects for the district to become a stake in the foreseeable future. The Church published its Kosraean translation of the Book of Mormon in 2015.

General Analysis on 36 New Missions

This post is a general analysis of the Church's announcement earlier this week to create 36 new missions in July 2024. I will provide an overall assessment of this development and its significance and ramifications rather than go through a mission-by-mission analysis for each of the new missions (which I will put together in the coming weeks in multiple posts similar to recent new temple announcement analyses). 

A Correlation between Children of Record and Number of Full-time Missionaries Serving?

First, I have been informed of claims on social media that attribute the current surge in the number of full-time missionaries serving to a bump in children of record increase from 20 years ago, and that this current increase is therefore unsurprising, predictable, and actually less impressive than what it should be given children of record numbers two decades ago. There are many problems with making this argument in regard to the assumptions made. Children of record are not all retained into adulthood, with a portion who are never baptized at age 8 who are subsequently removed from church membership figures. Moreover, there are many child and youth converts who join the Church at an age when they are not included in the annual children of record increase metric. Additionally, rates of missionary service may vary for those added to church records prior to age 8 and are later baptized versus those who have joined the Church as a youth convert (historically, the Church has done very well with youth converts serving full-time missions). Furthermore, not all members who serve missions serve missions at the same age, and the minimum age for missionary service was revised from 19 to 18 for men and 21 to 19 for women in 2012. Finally, rates of full-time missionary service have also varied over time by gender, with increasing numbers of women serving full-time missions in the past decade. 

Graph 1 below displays annual numbers of full-time missionaries serving from 1977 to 2023 (rounded to 73,000 as Elder Cook reported 72,721 full-time missionaries serving as of November 1st, 2023) as well as increase in children of record (2023 is not included as there are no current estimates available for the year).

                                                            Graph 1

There is general little correlation between the two graphs when comparing these metrics over time, although there are some periods when both metrics increase and decrease together (note the COVID-19 pandemic in the early 2020s, as well as a decline in both the number of missionaries serving and increase in children of record in the late 2010s). However, there would be a lag of approximately two decades for when most of those born into the Church would serve full-time missions. See Graph 2 which illustrates how children of record increase compares to the number of full-time missionaries serving 20 years later.

                                                                Graph 2

Again, there is little correlation between these metrics even when children of record increase is paired with the number of full-time missionaries serving 20 years later. Graph 3 presents the percentage of children of record serving full-time missions 20 years later.

                                                                   Graph 3

 

This metric, again something to be very cautiously considered given the major assumptions made which have significant problems to make this very useful or accurate, has actually increased over time from approximately 55-60% in the late 1990s/early 2000s to 75-80% in the early 2020s. Therefore, the argument that the current surge in full-time missionaries serving is due to an increase in children of record two decades ago is not supported when considering the data available.

Geostatistical Comparison of the 58 New Missions Announced in 2013 versus the 36 New Missions Announced for 2024

There is only one year that has come remotely close to 2024 for the number of new missions organized in a single year, which was 2013 when 58 new missions were organized to accommodate tens of thousands more full-time missionaries serving that began as a result of the "double cohort" from those planning to serve missions at the previous minimum age for missionary service and those who decided to begin serving a full-time mission earlier because of the announcement. 

In 2013, I published an analysis on cumorah.com regarding the 58 new missions to be created that summer. Church leaders reported that the creation of the 58 new missions was a permanent change, and not a temporary one just to meet demand for the influx in members serving missions. This was supported with the number of missions within the following decade. The Church reported 405 missions as of year-end 2013, and the number of missions fluctuated between 399 and 421 during the next decade. To quote from this analysis, I stated:

Of the 58 missions to be created in July 2013, 17 are in North America (Arizona Gilbert, Arizona Scottsdale, California Bakersfield, California Irvine, California Rancho Cucamonga, Colorado Fort Collins, Georgia Macon, Idaho Nampa, Idaho Twin Falls, Illinois Chicago West, Kansas Wichita, Ohio Cincinnati, Oregon Salem, Utah Salt Lake City East, Virginia Chesapeake, Washington Federal Way, Washington Vancouver), 15 are in South America (Argentina Comodoro Rivadavia, Argentina Posadas, Bolivia Santa Cruz North, Brazil Curitiba South, Brazil Fortaleza East, Brazil Juiz de Fora, Brazil Natal, Brazil Piracicaba, Brazil Santos, Brazil Sao Paulo West, Chile Santiago South, Ecuador Guayaquil West, Ecuador Quito North, Peru Huancayo, Peru Iquitos), 11 are in Central America (El Salvador San Salvador East, Guatemala Coban, Honduras San Pedro Sula West, Mexico Cancun, Mexico Ciudad Juarez, Mexico Ciudad Obregon, Mexico Mexico City Chalco, Mexico Pachuca, Mexico Queretaro, Mexico Reynosa, Mexico Saltillo), six are in East Asia (Japan Tokyo South, Korea Seoul South, Philippines Cavite, Philippines Cebu East, Philippines Legaspi, Philippines Urdaneta), five are in Africa (Angola Luanda, Botswana Gaborone, Ghana Accra West, Liberia Monrovia, Nigeria Benin City), three are in Oceania (Australia Sydney North, New Zealand Hamilton, Papua New Guinea Lae), and one is in Europe (Ukraine L'viv).  New missions in North, Central, and South America account for 74% of all new missions to be created in 2013 notwithstanding 83.6% of world church membership and approximately 15% of the world population residing in the Americas.  Three of the 58 missions will be the first missions to be headquartered within a particular country (Angola Luanda, Botswana Gaborone, and Liberia Monrovia).  The four countries with the most new missions to be organized are the United States (17), Mexico (8), Brazil (7), and the Philippines (4).

As for the 36 new missions to be organized in 2024, 10 are in North America (California Modesto, Florida Tallahassee, Montana Missoula, Nevada Henderson, South Carolina Charleston, Texas Dallas South, Texas El Paso, Utah Salt Lake City East, Utah Saratoga Springs, Utah Spanish Fork), nine are in Sub-Saharan Africa (DR Congo Kinshasa South, DR Congo Kolwezi, Ghana Accra North, Ghana Takoradi, Kenya Nairobi East, Madagascar Antananarivo North, Nigeria Calabar, Nigeria Port Harcourt North, Sierra Leone Bo), six are in Asia (Cambodia Phnom Penh East, Japan Sendai, Philippines Dumaguete, Philippines General Santos, Philippines Tuguegarao, Thailand Bangkok East), six are in South America (Argentina Tucumán, Bolivia Cochabamba South, Brazil Manaus South, Chile La Serena, Ecuador Quito West, Perú Lima Northeast), two are in Central America (México Mexicali, México Puebla East), two are in Europe (Germany Hamburg, Portugal Porto), and one is in the Caribbean (Dominican Republic Santo Domingo North). New missions in North, Central, and South America account for 50% of the new missions to be organized in 2024. Six (6) countries will have more than one new mission organized in 2024, including the United States (10), Philippines (3), the DR Congo (2), Ghana (2), Mexico (2), and Nigeria (2). Once these changes go into effect in July 2024, the countries with the most missions will include the United States (120), Brazil (37), Mexico (34), the Philippines (26), Peru (15), Argentina (14), Chile (11), and Nigeria (11).

Noteworthy Characteristics of the 36 New Missions to be Organized in 2024

Here are some characteristics of the 36 new missions to be organized that are noteworthy to mention.

• New missions to be created in 2024 are more equal geographically distributed than the missions created in 2013.
  
• No missions are located in countries that do not already have a mission.
• Six countries will receive their second mission (Cambodia, Kenya, Madagascar, Portugal, Sierra Leone, Thailand).
  
• Six missions will be reinstated missions that previously closed (California Modesto, Florida Tallahassee, Germany Hamburg, Japan Sendai, Portugal Porto, Utah Salt Lake City East).
  
• 2024 will be the year with most new missions ever organized in Africa in one year.
• One new mission is in a city where a mission used to be headquartered but the mission was relocated elsewhere (Nigeria Calabar).
• No missions are planned to be discontinued.
• No new missions are planned for Oceania.
  
• All of the new missions have at least one stake (indicating plans with these new missions are to expand into lesser-reached areas with a base in active members and not venture into areas with little-to-no Church presence). 
• Plans for the three new Utah missions call for at least one missionary companionship assigned per stake in Utah - something that has never previous occurred.
  

Other Reactions to the New Missions Announcement

Finally, here are some other reactions to this announcement. 

• I was most surprised about the following missions: Cambodia Phnom Penh East, DR Congo Kolwezi, México Mexicali, Philippines Dumaguete, and South Carolina Charleston. The reason why is because they are in locations with a relatively small Church presence and/or have historically experienced slow growth within recent years.
  
• The new mission announcements that I believe were the most overdue were Brazil Manaus South, Portugal Porto, Sierra Leone Bo, and Thailand Bangkok East. These missions are located in areas that have missions with a major administrative burden because of large geographical areas, large numbers of congregations, and/or rapid growth.
  
• Locations where I was most disappointed that no new missions are planned to be organized include (in order) Togo Lome, Liberia Monrovia (second mission), Burundi Bujumbura, Senegal Dakar, Cuba Havana, Malawi Lilongwe, Brazil São Luís, Spain Granada, and Solomon Islands Honiara. These are locations where there is a major need for missions to be created to take advantage of greater opportunities for growth. 
• New missions that I foresee as having the greatest likelihood to accelerate growth in the area where the operate include Brazil Manaus South, the two new DR Congo missions, Madagascar Antananarivo North, the two new Nigerian missions, and Sierra Leone Bo.
• There may be a possibility of additional missions to be organized in 2024 that have not been announced yet pending where missionary numbers are at in early 2024 and evolving opportunities for growth.