Assessing Member Activity Rates by Percentage Increase in Seminary and Institute Enrollment

For several years the LDS Church has released a summary of seminary and institute attendance for most countries in which the Church has a presence.  Attending seminary or institute provides increased opportunity for members and investigators to enhance their doctrinal understanding of the Church, form friendships with active members, and facilitate regular church attendance.  Noting changing numbers of students enrolled in these Church Education System (CES) programs by country offers insight into change in member activity rates among youth and young adults as many active Latter-day Saint youth and young adults participate in these programs.  The Church does not release member activity statistics, but member activity rates can be ascertained by examining other reported statistics, such as increases in the number of congregations, the formation of stakes, the ratio of membership to congregations, and the percentage of total membership enrolled in seminary and institute.

Below is a list of the countries which experienced at least a 30% increase in CES enrollment between the 2007-2008 and 2009-2010 school years.  Countries with fewer than 100 students enrolled during the 2008-2009 school year have been omitted.  The country name is provided, followed by the percentage increase and the reported number of enrolled students during the 2009-2010 school year.

1. Ethiopia - 138% - 107
2. Guyana - 133% - 296
3. Kenya - 95% - 1,295
4. Trinidad and Tobago - 92% - 152
5. Swaziland - 64% - 121
6. Mongolia - 62% - 1,195
7. Netherlands - 50% - 581
8. Republic of Congo - 44% - 720
9. Czech Republic - 42% - 102
10. Cameroon - 40% - 192
11. Tonga - 38% - 2,224
12. Cote d'Ivoire - 37% - 5,017
13. Singapore - 33% - 204
14. Madagascar - 31% - 666
15. Wales - 31% - 194
16. Cape Verde - 30% - 573

The percentage increase in students enrolled in CES programs has outpaced the percentage increase for total church membership in each of these countries during this period, which may suggest that in addition to moderate to high rates of convert retention that some inactive members may have been reactivated and are now enrolled in seminary and institute.  Countries with slow or stagnant membership growth listed above (the Netherlands, Czech Republic, Tonga, and Wales) likely experienced strong growth in seminary and institute enrollment from institute and seminary outreach directed towards active members previously not attending classes and inactive or less-active members which have been reactivated and are now attending classes.  Countries which experienced notable increases in CES enrollment between 2008 and 2010 with fewer than 100 students enrolled in 2010 include Saint Vincent and Estonia.

It is important to note that enrollment in seminary and institute for students does not guarantee that students attend church meetings regularly or follow LDS teachings, but enrollment in these programs indicates that these members affiliate themselves with the Church and more than often are actively participating in other church programs.

Two New Missions in Peru

Before I begin this post, I wanted to note that I will be providing information and analysis concerning each of the new missions or missions to be discontinued over the next couple weeks. For a full list of the new missions and mission consolidations, visit the Church News article which can be found here. There are also missions not mentioned in the article that will be realigned which I will also provide posts for.

Peru Cusco Mission

The Peru Cusco Mission was created from the Peru Arequipa and Peru Lima Central Missions and includes the regions of Puno (formally in the Arequipa mission), Cusco, Madre de Dios, and Apurimac (formally in the Lima Central mission). The new mission will serve a population of three million which has seen less outreach than many other areas of Peru due to its remoteness. The greatest potential for growth will be in the most populous regions on Cusco and Puno. Several new dependent branches or groups have been organized recently in locations such as Desaguadero and Chinchero (the latter has around 15 investigators attending Sunday meetings and very few members). Several new congregations in the Puno region have also been organized recently. Six stakes and seven districts are within the mission boundaries, the most recently created being the Andahuayles Peru District in 2008. Missionaries will likely use Spanish, but a large number of the population speaks Quechua.

Peru Lima West Mission

The Peru Lima West Mission will be created from the Peru Lima East and Peru Lima North Missions and include the northwestern portions of the city of Lima and the northern half of the Lima region. I do not know how many stakes in the Lima area will be included in the new mission, but four new stakes were organized last year in northern Lima. Only one district and one stake will be in the northern reaches of the new mission. The new mission was likely created to alleviate the heavy demand for missionaries in the northern portions of the Lima metropolitan area and allow for greater outreach to smaller villages in mountainous areas. The new mission likely serves between one to three million people.

With the creation of these two new missions, there are now nine missions in Peru. Peru has the second largest percentage of members attending institute and seminary in Latin America at 7.2%. The nation with the largest percentage is Venezuela with 8.3%. This may indicate the Peru does not just enjoy more rapid membership and congregational growth than many other Latin American nations, but also higher member activity. Most Latin American countries have 3-5% of membership attending seminary and institute.

Latter-Day Saints per congregations worldwide

One of the reasons I wanted to create a post about this topic is because I have seen this to be one of the attacks critics will take on the Church in terms of its growth. Critics will cite that the number of members in the Church per unit has increased over the past decades, evidence of rising inactivity. While I do not want to ignore the fact that the Church has a major inactivity problem (which is improving), I do want to make some facts straight. Here's a list of the year and number of members per congregation for every five years since 1975 to present.

Year Members per congregation

• 1975 - 438
• 1980 - 368
• 1985 - 394
• 1990 - 429
• 1995 - 412
• 2000 - 427
• 2005 - 464
• 2007 - 474

Looking at these numbers, members per congregation fluctuated between 368 and 474 since 1975. Every year since 1999 has seen an increase in this ratio. So if this increase is not simply due to inactivity, then what is it?


Between 2000 and 2004, most countries in Latin America experienced decreases in the number of congregations. Chile, the example that illustrated this most clearly, had over 300 congregations closed during this time. Peru lost 200 congregations and so did Brazil. What happened?


It is important to remember that these are countries where rapid growth took place. One of the measures to accommodate this growth, retain converts, teach members, and build up the Church is to create small wards and branches. This can also help invest in future growth in the area. This tends to be an "offensive" tactic for missionary work. When conditions for missionary work deteriorate, or members are in need of more support and fellowship, the opposite can occur, or a "defensive" tactic. So this could be one of the reasons for why we see such a fluctuation in the number of members per unit worldwide.


Another reason for the fluctuation of over 100 members per unit we've seen in the past 30 years is similar to the last reason. Sometimes many new units are created at once. For example, in 1979 there were 1,632 new units created and 1,105 in 1980. However, the years before 1979 saw around 500-600 units being created a year and after 1980, most years saw around 300-500 new units created. A similar "burst" can be seen in the 90s where up to 1,271 new units were created in a single year. Although we have not seen a large burst in new congregations worldwide recently, we have seen this phenomenon recently in countries such as Suriname, Guyana, Madagascar, Cambodia, and the United States.


I don't want to say much more about this, other than that these are my own ideas and not something that the Church has come out and said.