2018 Statistical Report - Predictions

Based upon recent growth trends and information gathered over the past year, the following is my prediction for various statistics to be reported in the annual 2018 statistical report tomorrow afternoon. I foresee no significant differences in global church growth trends for 2018 in comparison to 2017 albeit congregational growth rates (i.e. net increase in the number of wards/branches) significantly slowed in 2018 primarily due to the closure of approximately 150 congregations in Mexico as part of an area-wide effort to increase the number of active members in each ward or branch, and a slower-than-normal year for the rate of new congregations being created worldwide. Otherwise, information I have obtained thus far suggests no other significant changes in global growth trends in 2018 in comparison to recent years, with the exception of increases in temple attendance. However, greater temple participation during 2018 will not be reflected in the statistics traditionally reported during statistical reports at General Conference.

This is what I predict for the 2018 statistical report:

• Membership: 16.3-16.4 million
• Wards and Branches: ~30,560
• Stakes: 3,383
• Districts: 545
• Missions: 407
• Dedicated Temples: 161
• Convert Baptisms: 230,000-260,000
• Full-time Missionaries Serving: 65,000
• Church-service Missionaries: 35,000-40,000
• Increase in Children of Record (ICR): 100,000-110,000
• Membership and Convert Baptisms/ICR discrepancy*: 90,000-120,000

*This statistic is the difference between the summation of convert baptisms and increase of children of record, and the annual numerical increase for total church membership reported by the Church. This discrepancy in numbers constitutes members removed from church records due to death, excommunication, unbaptized children of record who reach age 18, and resignations.

Click on the "statistical report" label below to compare these numbers with previous statistical reports provided by the Church in previous years. World data for LDS growth trends since 1975 can be found here.

Updated Country Profile - Austria

Click here to access the updated Reaching the Nations country profile for Austria. The Church organized its first official congregation in Austria in 1901. There are two stakes in the country. Although few in numbers (less than 4,700 members in 2017), Latter-day Saints in Austria are known for their dedication and strength in leadership. For example, most temple presidents for the Freiburg Germany Temple have been Austrians since the late 2000s. Austrians have also served as mission presidents in Europe during the past several decades. Austria appears the most likely candidate for a temple in Europe at present given the long-term presence of the Church in Vienna, distance to the nearest temple, and well-developed local leadership capable of not only staffing local needs, but also serving in international leadership positions. See below for the Future Prospects section of the article:

Long periods of nongrowth or low growth, low convert baptism rates, continued struggles with member activity, decline in seminary attendance to less than half of earlier levels, the reduction in the complement of full-time missionaries serving in Austria, and the consolidation of both congregations and missions since the early 2000s, demonstrate that expansion of church outreach is unlikely in the medium-term future. Austria demonstrates that Church growth is not guaranteed despite an established local Church leadership, a “critical mass” of local membership, freedom to proselyte, the Church obtaining the highest level of government recognition, and over a century of missionary activity. Nevertheless, Vienna appears a likely candidate for a temple one day due to distance to the nearest temple and a well-established, long-term community of strong members and leaders in the city. Church leaders in Europe began to focus on working with youth and young adults during the mid-2000s in an effort to ensure a continued Church presence in the future once aging members pass away. Institute-oriented outreach programs in coordination with member-missionary initiatives appear to be one of the best options for the Church to maintain its current national outreach and presence while attempting to expand. The Church has yet to break out of the trend of no new wards or branches created since the late 1990s. Progress must be made in integrating new converts in greater numbers to ensure as strong of a Church presence in the decades to come.

Salt Lake Tribune Mormonland Podcast

I participated in the Salt Lake Tribune's Mormonland Podcast yesterday. We discuss the results of survey data I have collected about the missionary program and church growth, as well as temple predictions. Access the podcast here.

New Stakes Created in Nebraska, Nigeria, and Utah; New Districts Created in Nigeria and St Vincent and the Grenadines

Nebraska
The Church organized a new stake in Nebraska for the first time since 1991. The Omaha Nebraska Millard Stake was organized on March 31st from a division of the Omaha Nebraska Stake and the Omaha Nebraska Pampillion Stake. The new stake includes the following seven wards and one branch: the Chalco Hills, Elmwood, Gretna, Harrison Hills, Millard, Rockbrook, and Lakeview Wards, and Field Club Branch. There are now four stakes in the Omaha metropolitan area (three on the Nebraska side, one on the Iowa side).

There are now five stakes in Nebraska.

Nigeria
The Church organized one new stake and one new district in Nigeria.

The Ibadan Nigeria North Stake was organized from a division of the Ibadan Nigeria Stake and the Ilorin Nigeria District on March 24th. The new stake includes the following five wards and three branches: the Adegbayi, Akobo, Mokola, Ojoo, and Sawmill Wards, and the Oke Itunu, Olodo, and Oyo Branches. The Church organized its first stake in Ibadan in 2014 and has reported rapid congregational growth since that time which has warranted the stake to divide only five years later. The original Ibadan Nigeria District was organized in 1991. Slow growth occurred for the Church in Ibadan for much of the first couple decades of a Church presence in the city. However, rapid growth has occurred in Ibadan for nearly one decade. There are now five stakes in the Yorubaland region of Nigeria. In contrast, there were no stakes in Yorubaland prior to 2014. Given steady growth in the region and a population numbering in the tens of millions, Ibadan appears like a likely candidate for a future temple one day, perhaps in the next 5-10 years given current growth rates.

The Nsukwa Nigeria District was organized on March 31st from a division of the Ogwashi-Nsukwa District (renamed Ogwashi Nigeria District). The new district includes the following three branches: Nsukwa 1st, Nsukwa 2nd, and Ossissa Branches. Rapid growth has occurred in this region of Delta State in Nigeria since the mid-2000s. The Church organized its first district in the region in 2006 in Asaba. The district divided in 2013 to create two additional districts in Agbor and Ogwashi-ukwu. The Asaba Nigeria District became a stake in 2018. Thus, within the matter of 15 years the Church progressed from only a few branches in northern Delta State that pertained to the Onitsha Nigeria District, to one stake and three districts all headquartered in Delta State. Additionally, the Ogwashi Nigeria District appears close to becoming a stake as the district has eight branches that all function within the city of Ogwashi-ukwu. With two branches in Adonte, this village appears likely to become its own district if a third branch is organized or have the two branches in the district become assigned to the new district in Nsukwa.

There are now 56 stakes and 17 districts in Nigeria.

Utah
The Church organized a new stake in Lehi, Utah on March 31st. The Lehi Utah Holbrook Farms Stake was organized from a division of the Lehi Utah Jordan Willows Stake. The new stake includes the following six wards: the Evans Farm, Holbrook Farms 1st, Holbrook Farms 2nd, Jordan Willows 1st, Jordan Willows 2nd, and Jordan Willows 7th Wards. The new stake is the Church's 600th stake in the state of Utah. To put things into perspective, there are more than twice as many stakes in Utah as there are in any other country in the world aside from the United States. Brazil is the country with the second most stakes in the world with 273.

St Vincent and the Grenadines
The Church organized its first district in the Caribbean nation of St Vincent and the Grenadines. The Kingstown St Vincent District was organized from six mission branches that previously were under the direct supervision of the Barbados Bridgetown Mission. The branches assigned to the mission include the Calliaqua, Castries, Georgetown, Kingstown, St George's, and Vieux-Fort Branches. Of the six branches, three are in St Vincent and the Grenadines, two are in St Lucia, and one is in Grenada. The three nations that pertain to the new district have reported some of the most rapid growth for the Church in the Lesser Antilles although growth rates nevertheless remain slow.

Translation of the Book of Mormon, Doctrine and Covenants, and The Pearl of Great Price Announced for Kazakh and Macedonian

The Church recently announced plans to translate the triple combination (e.g. the Book of Mormon, Doctrine and Covenants, and The Pearl of Great Price) into two additional languages that have never had translations of Latter-day Saint scriptures available: Kazakh and Macedonian. The Church reports very few speakers of these languages at present, and the decision to translate scriptures into these languages will serve as a tremendous resource for proselytism efforts and testimony development. There appear to be no more than 30 Macedonian speakers within North Macedonia (FYROM), whereas there appear to be no more than 150 Kazakh speakers in Kazakhstan. The number of speakers of these languages in other countries also appears very small. The Church has appeared to utilize Serbian translations to meet language needs of Macedonian speakers, whereas the Church has mainly used Russian translations to meet the needs of Kazakh speakers. The decision to translate scriptures into these languages may signal renewed interest in the Church translating materials into languages with sizable numbers of speakers but with very few Latter-day Saints. According to Ethnologue.com, there are approximately 13 million Kazakh speakers worldwide and 1.62 million speakers of Macedonian worldwide. The article I referenced at the beginning of this post also contains additional updates regarding translation of scriptures and digitization of scriptures already published in print.

Church Receives Official Recognition in Kuwait

The Church announced this morning that it received official registration in Kuwait. Based upon reports I have received, it appears that this recognition occurred in February. The Church in Kuwait had approximately 350 members and one ward as of year-end 2017. The Kuwait Ward pertains to the Manama Bahrain Stake which covers Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. For more information about the Church in Kuwait, see the updated Reaching the Nations country profile entry here. This development will permit a more public Church presence in Kuwait and perhaps meetinghouse construction although proselytism with full-time missionaries does not appear to be a likely possibility anytime soon given current religious freedom restrictions.

Monthly Newsletter - March 2019

Click here to access the March 2019 monthly newsletter for www.cumorah.com.

Updated Country Profile - The Bahamas

Click here to access the updated Reaching the Nations country profile for The Bahamas. Little has changed for the Church in The Bahamas since the 2014 Edition of Reaching the Nations was published. The member activity rate in the country is estimated at 12%. Although a district was reestablished with "Nassau" in the name of it in early 2018, the district is headquartered out of the Cayman Islands and not The Bahamas. See below for the Future Prospects section of this article:

Low receptivity, negative cultural attitudes concerning the Church, and a high rate of church attendance in other faiths create significant challenges for future growth. Prospects for the creation of additional congregations appear poor until member reactivation efforts improve member activity rates, a higher percentage of new converts remain active for the long-term, and increases in convert baptisms occur. Traveling missionaries holding cottage meetings while visiting members and investigators on currently unreached islands may be a means of beginning missionary work in these locations.

Updated Country Profile - Trinidad and Tobago

Click here to access the updated Reaching the Nations country profile for Trinidad and Tobago. The Church has maintained a continuous presence in the country for over 40 years, yet there remain only 3,500 members (15% of whom regularly attend church - one of the lowest member activity rates in the Caribbean). The Church reported significant growth in Trinidad during the 2000s which ultimately culminated in the creation of the first stake in 2009, but this growth has significantly slowed in the 2010s primarily due to problems with securing an adequate number of full-time missionary visas, poor member-missionary participation, and very low member activity rates. See below for the Future Prospects section of this article:

The outlook for future growth appears mixed. The Church continues to operate a stake in Trinidad despite comparatively few members and low activity rates. Also, the reduced geographic size of the mission since 2015 permits greater mission president oversight and resources for proselytism and expansion. Moreover, the population remains receptive to proselytism efforts by the Church. However, the Church struggles with dependence on foreign, full-time missionaries to meet local proselytism needs. Given recent limitations with the number of visas granted to the Church for foreign full-time missionaries, the Church is understaffed in its missionary force on the islands. This situation underscores the need for greater self-sufficiency both in the Church in Trinidad and Tobago, and in the Caribbean as a whole, to meet local proselytism needs. The Church continues to struggle with greater local leadership development as evidenced by no new wards or branches organized since the late 2000s. As a result, no new wards or branches appear likely to be organized within the foreseeable future.

Updated Country Profile - Jamaica

Click here to access the updated Reaching the Nations country profile for Jamaica. Many new sources were incorporated into this updated article, including dozens of surveys completed by returned missionaries and local members. The Church in Jamaica has struggled to achieve greater growth since its permanent establishment on the island nearly half a century ago. The Church currently reports more than 6,400 members although no more than 1,500 members appear to attend church regularly. The creation of the first stake in Jamaica in 2014 came after decades of preparation and signals some improvements in leadership development. Also, the first Jamaican to serve as a mission president began his 2013. However, there have not appeared to have been any measurable increases in active membership for the island since the stake was organized. Jamaica has one of the lowest percentages of Latter-day Saints in the population in the Caribbean as one in 465 was nominally a Latter-day Saint in 2017. See below for more information about cultural factors that have stifled growth, and the outlook for future growth.

Returned missionaries consistently report concerns with the over-saturation of churches in Jamaica and public indifference regarding the Latter-day Saint gospel message as many Jamaicans assume The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints lacks distinctness from other religious groups. Nevertheless, the Church has experienced a large amount of persecution and prejudice especially in outlying cities and towns. Opposition has been strong enough to necessitate the closure of some cities to missionary work such as Lucea in May 2001. This has caused many Jamaicans to avoid learning about the Church and creates an atmosphere of intolerance. Many smaller communities are religiously divided based on denomination. Secularism has increased in recent years as interest in religious declines in the major cities. Widespread drug abuse and violent crime are major concerns. 

The Church may organized a second stake in Jamaica in the medium term as the Mandeville Jamaica District has several branches that appear to meet the qualifications to become wards. Additional congregations along the northern coast and in the Saint Mary Parish may be organized. Small branches or groups in many of the small towns unreached by current congregations may be created once greater activity and membership growth occurs. Historically low convert retention rates and low member activity rates are consistent barriers to greater real church growth and self-sustainability. Little progress expanding national outreach will likely continue until these issues are resolved. The Church may build a small temple in Kingston once there are multiple stakes in Jamaica due to distance to the nearest temple.