2018 Statistical Report - Predictions

Based upon recent growth trends and information gathered over the past year, the following is my prediction for various statistics to be reported in the annual 2018 statistical report tomorrow afternoon. I foresee no significant differences in global church growth trends for 2018 in comparison to 2017 albeit congregational growth rates (i.e. net increase in the number of wards/branches) significantly slowed in 2018 primarily due to the closure of approximately 150 congregations in Mexico as part of an area-wide effort to increase the number of active members in each ward or branch, and a slower-than-normal year for the rate of new congregations being created worldwide. Otherwise, information I have obtained thus far suggests no other significant changes in global growth trends in 2018 in comparison to recent years, with the exception of increases in temple attendance. However, greater temple participation during 2018 will not be reflected in the statistics traditionally reported during statistical reports at General Conference.

This is what I predict for the 2018 statistical report:

• Membership: 16.3-16.4 million
• Wards and Branches: ~30,560
• Stakes: 3,383
• Districts: 545
• Missions: 407
• Dedicated Temples: 161
• Convert Baptisms: 230,000-260,000
• Full-time Missionaries Serving: 65,000
• Church-service Missionaries: 35,000-40,000
• Increase in Children of Record (ICR): 100,000-110,000
• Membership and Convert Baptisms/ICR discrepancy*: 90,000-120,000

*This statistic is the difference between the summation of convert baptisms and increase of children of record, and the annual numerical increase for total church membership reported by the Church. This discrepancy in numbers constitutes members removed from church records due to death, excommunication, unbaptized children of record who reach age 18, and resignations.

Click on the "statistical report" label below to compare these numbers with previous statistical reports provided by the Church in previous years. World data for LDS growth trends since 1975 can be found here.