At 8 PM MDT, I will be a guest on the Ward Radio YouTube channel to do an episode about temple predictions and church growth. Access the episode here.
At 8 PM MDT, I will be a guest on the Ward Radio YouTube channel to do an episode about temple predictions and church growth. Access the episode here.
28 comments:
Let's GOOOOOOOOO!!!!!! Matt is a stud!
Thanks for inviting Matt on! This is awesome!
How about Scotland? Can you comment on growth and activity trends? We're 5 hours or more from the English temples and would love to see something closer to home!
Matt, I missed the livestream, but I'm curious what your thoughts are on a temple in the San Luis Valley instead of Colorado Springs. I say this because the Manassa Stake is the oldest in Colorado and one of the oldest in the entire church. Logistically, Colorado Springs would make more sense, but I know that President (then Elder) Nelson promised a temple in Manassa decades ago. Curious as to your thoughts, your work is awesome
Here's my responses:
Mac - Yes, I think Scotland is the most likely location in Europe to get a temple announced. Growth has been stagnant in Scotland for decades. Member activity rates in Scotland have been the lowest in all of the United Kingdom (probably 15-20% of members are active). I would love to get your observations on what you have seen in Scotland in terms of member activity rates.
1avsfan - Yes, I think a temple in the San Luis Valley is very likely. I think both the San Luis Valley and Colorado Springs will one day have temples for different reasons.
here's the link: https://youtube.com/live/j4bt1CEI9TQ
I think Manassa, Colorado getting a temple is entirely independent of Colorado Springs getting one. They are far enough apart, that I do not think either having a temple would make the other less likely to get a temple.
You did great Matt!!! I enjoyed the episode.
One thing about modular construction of Helena Montana Temple is that Helena has cold winters which typically prolongs construction. It was also mentioned in your conversation that this was the first modular temple constructed. These factors could have contributed to why it was the 60th fastest and not close to the fastest.
One other potential benefit I see for modular construction that was not mentioned is that the modules are built in a controlled environment. No snow, no rain, no direct sunlight... Thus potentially improving the quality of the construction. On the flipside, care is really needed to prevent damage in shipping as well as making sure everything fits together smoothly.
Matt,
I live in Iowa, and locally we have had a movement within our stake for 5ish years where our stake President has been doing everything he can to advocate for a Temple in the Cedar Rapids Stake. It has since propogated to many other stakes here asking for it. This has included letter campaigns, Massive Temple worker/ attendance increases, Increases in Family History work with world record level campaigns to record headstones.
The Nauvoo Temple's previous Temple President was married to President Nelson's daughter and when they went home, she personally took a stack of pictures colored by our primary children and letters from the youth asking for a Temple here.
That being said I am not holding my breath, but in regards to the Iowa City predition you have on your map, that and or the Des Moines. In terms of commuting distance, North Eastern Iowa is according to the calculations I have done, has among the longest commute times to travel to a temple certainly in the mid-west.
Iowa City and Des Moines seem to be less likely candidates because they are both within 2 hour driving distances from a Temple...
That being said I am wondering what are the statistics that put any Iowa Temple being ranked as less likely, and what are the factors in your view that would most effect the probability to bringing a Temple here to our area?
Dozens of LDS Chapels vandalized in Utah
https://www.ksl.com/article/50739553/3-more-cities-investigating-string-of-latter-day-saint-church-burglaries
The Newsroom just reported on the visit of the the first female president of Hungary (and the youngest in that country's history) spoke at BYU and met with the First Presidency at Church headquarters this week. I am hopeful that, based on her comments about faith and family, the meeting with the First Presidency may help speed up the approvals for the Budapest Hungary Temple. My thanks once again to you all.
I'm curious Matt if you have any insight as to why the pace of groundbreakings for temples seems to be so far behind the pace of announcements. 79 announced temples and only 2 with groundbreaking dates at present and it seems like it's been forever since a new groundbreaking was announced. Would we expect that pace to pick up significantly in 2024?
Matt - Speaking of the San Luis Valley, I found this interesting information a few months ago: according to a 1966 BYU thesis on the history of Latter-day Saint settlement in the
Valley, a church leader in 1878 promised that a temple would be built there one day. I haven't been able to track the reference down to the source the paper quotes yet though.
Flower, Judson Harold Jr., "Mormon Colonization of the San Luis Valley, Colorado, 1878-1900" (1966).
Theses and Dissertations. 4691.
https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/4691
On page 45.
Hi Matt, congratulations on participating in the podcast. In your list of the 10 most likely, I was curious about your quote about São José in Brazil. Why not Florianopolis?
Thanks for your insights Matt. I wish I had joined live so I could ask this question. On the show you mentioned something about the Philippines being close to saturation (the way I understood it was the most obvious temple locations are almost all covered?). I'm curious how soon you think we might reach a broad saturation of temples across the world? I imagine our assumptions about which locations are viable for a temple can change (given how much they've shifted over recent years), but even then it seems our current pace would catch up to the number of members at some point, yes?
FYI, "Church leaders sustain 2 new Area Seventies, release 2 others during leadership meetings
Changes announced during October 2023 general conference leadership meetings
By Kaitlyn Bancroft 28 Sept 2023, 1:34 PM MDT"
https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders/2023/9/28/23894278/2-new-area-seventies-sustained-2-others-released-general-conference
If I may say so, Florianópolis is on a very cramped island, with chaotic traffic and quite expensive prices. Only one bridge connects the island to the mainland, with a lot of traffic jams. Considering the travel of members coming from the interior of the State, it made sense for the temple to be located in the metropolitan region, but on the mainland. Nothing prevents the temple from being named the Florianópolis Temple but being located in a nearby city, in the same way as happened in Natal, where the temple lot is located in Parnamirim.
Jesse,
In the past year, there's been 35 announcements and 10 groundbreakings. I brought this issue up before, and the fact is there can delay from announcements to groundbreakings due to permitting, site selection, etc. The church is likely going to ramp up these groundbreakings with about twenty something next year and increases after that.
Spencer,
As far as saturation, I think there's a ways before it's too saturated. There are many that still live in areas that require overnight travel and large expense to get to the nearest temple. Matt brought up the other night which I've personally seen as well is that the youth are more engaged in family history and temple work than ever before. That's requiring a need for more baptistries for temples with large temple districts. I can see renovations and new builds of large temples to include two fonts instead of one.
I think the church can easily announce and build 100 more temples in addition to what's already announced without oversaturation. I would define oversaturation as causing not having enough attendance to keep each temple open. Because of the backlog that Jesse was pointing out, some are starting to see announcements looking more as wish list until construction picks up.
Elder Christopherson was recently in Nepal to deliver some Nepalese copies of the Book of Mormon. There are now 111 translations of the Book of Mormon. If I read the article right this is the first New language translation of the Book of Mormon published in 8 years.
Evidently President Nelson will not be present in general conference but he may speak remotely. I wonder if new temples will be announced and if so who will announce them.
On the other hand Florianopolis being a chaotic island with just one bridge to the mainland means a temple on the island itself would be much more accessible to members in Flirianopolis. Although the fact that the name given a temple often is n8t from the specific city it is in Aldo factors into such things.
The temple matrix for October general conference anticipated temple announcements is now available at https://sites.google.com/view/templematrix
So far it includes 21 different lists of predicted temples. Anticipated temples with the highest composite scores are Mongolia, Brazil, and Uganda. Thanks to everyone who has posted a list of anticipated temples. Looking forward to conference this weekend and any newly announced temples!
Nate, my lists are in the following documents:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-KFj733qA0rzdsU0w14xhllQVSjCH_5GrhYsQRxdj7U/edit?usp=sharing
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1AHEJOqAjEJDN7aXQLlfrkzc2yTVer6E0TRR5eYdNKB8/edit?usp=sharing
Also, regarding temple announcements this weekend, I believe they will still happen, but check out the following announcement:
https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/general-conference-message-president-nelson
https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders/2023/9/28/23894580/after-recent-fall-president-russell-m-nelson-to-participate-in-general-conference-remotely
https://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com/2023/09/breaking-news-health-updates-on.html
Since President Nelson said he hopes to "record [his] conference message", I assume if he's able to do so, that recording will conclude the Sunday Morning Session. If memory serves, the last time a prophet was unable to announce new temples, one of his counselors did so for him. I am theorizing that President Nelson will confine his remarks on Sunday Morning to a short topic-focused message, and that President Oaks, who has proxied for the prophet at his request on at least 3 occasions, may offer remarks to conclude the conference, during which time he will be the one to announce new temples.
As I previously stated, I do not see an announcement hiatus at any point in the next decade or so. Elder Holland will also be absent from General Conference again, so I look forward to seeing what they will do this weekend with two apostles absent. My thanks once again to you all.
Nate, my list (Craig Shuler) is number 22. Would you please add it to your matrix?
I posted it as Craig on 8/26/23 at 9:31 p.m. The column you show as Craig in your matrix (a different Craig than me), Made his predictions on 9/11/23 at 1:03. I also made a post on 9/11/23 at 1:12.
As I explained in my comments on 9/11/23 at 4:44 p.m. he is a different Craig.
My original 8/26 list:
Mapleton, Utah
Price Utah
Delta Utah
Mt. Vernon Washington *
Colorado Springs Colorado
El Paso Texas (or Las Cruces New Mexico)
Houston Texas South
Shreveport Louisiana
Madison Wisconsin *
Scotch Plains New Jersey
Barbados of Trinidad
Florianopolis Brazil
Santa Maria Brazil *
Rosario Argentina
Osorno Chile
London England Hyde Park *
Yerevan Armenia
Cotonou Benin (or Lome Togo)
Kampala Uganda
Nagoya Japa
On 9/11 I wrote:
I published my temples prediction list of 20 temples on August 26. Based on Matt's map and more pondering, I am dropping Yerevan Armenia from my list and adding Glasgow/Edinborough Scotland, Poza Rica Mexico, and Maracaibo Venezuela.
I thought Matt's broadcast yesterday was great. I wish though, that the moderator had not make so many sports and gambling comments that detracted from the broadcast.
James and Craig - your lists are in the matrix! Thanks for posting!
Hey, I remember that Cardon guy! Went to BYU with him. He's always been energetic like that. Used to be a stand-up comic. :)
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