Mormon Land Interview - April 2026

Click here to access the Mormon Land interview I completed with the Salt Lake Tribune providing analysis of the 2025 statistical report.

2025 Statisical Report - Analysis

This morning, the Church reported its annual statistical report as of December 31st, 2025.

• Membership: 17,887,212 (increase of 377,431 from 2024; a 2.16% annual increase)
• Congregations: 32,046 (increase of 370 from 2024; a 1.17% annual increase)
• Stakes: 3,695 (increase of 87 from 2024; a 2.41% annual increase)
• Districts: 488 (decrease of 6 from 2024; a 1.2% annual decrease)
• Missions: 451 (increase of 1 from 2024; a 0.22% annual increase)
• Convert Baptisms: 385,490 (increase of 76,808 from 2024; a 24.9% annual increase)
• Increase of Children on Record: 91,835 (increase of 218 from 2024; a 0.24% annual increase)
• Full-time Teaching Missionaries: 78,596 (increase of 4,469 from 2024; a 6.03% annual increase)
• Senior Service Missionaries: 31,613 (increase of 493 from 2024; an 1.58% annual increase)
  
• Young Service Missionaries: 4,518 (increase of 326 from 2024; a 7.78% annual increase)

Analysis of the 2025 Statistical Report - Key Takeaways

New All-Time Record for Convert Baptisms

The number of new converts baptized in 2025 stands as the most positive development in the statistical report. The Church baptized the most new converts ever in a single year, continuing a trend of increasing numbers of new converts baptized that began in 2024 when there were 308,682 converts baptized (which was an increase of nearly 57,000 from 2023). Church leaders have shared that the increase in convert baptisms has occurred in all major world regions, although North America had the lowest increase in new converts baptized in 2025 (reported as 17% in October 2025 by Elder Quentin L. Cook versus 20% for other world regions). For the year as a whole, there were 24.9% more converts baptized than in 2024. The previous all-time record for new converts baptized in a single year was set in 1990 (330,877), although this was at a time when prebaptismal standards were less strict than today, making the current numbers more impressive. Convert baptisms have increased at a rate much faster than the total number of full-time proselytizing teaching missionaries serving (24.9% versus 6.03% in 2025). There were 4.9 converts baptized per missionary in 2025 - the highest since 2011 when it was 5.1. This trend has improved in recent years from 3.4 in 2022 to 3.71 in 2023 and 4.2 in 2024, suggesting improved efficiency with proselytizing missionaries attracting more converts into the Church. Nevertheless, the average number of converts baptized per missionary is well below the 1970s-1990s when it ranged from 6-8 converts baptized per missionary a year.

Historically waning receptivity to the Latter-day Saint Gospel message during the past several decades has seemed to take an unexpected turn. The recent surge in convert baptisms appears to be driven more by increased receptivity than by major changes in proselytizing methods or teaching approaches. However, it is important to note that the Church has made unprecedented progress within the past 1-2 years with creating its first branches in cities where no official congregation has ever operated, although this development has been primarily concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, a portion of recent membership growth is likely attributable to outreach expansion efforts. However, region- and country-specific membership data have not yet been published, and it is usually posted on the Church's website the week after General Conference.

Sustaining this level of convert growth will depend heavily on improvements in convert retention, as historically many rapidly growing areas have struggled to translate baptisms into long-term activity and leadership development.

Largest Number Net Increase in New Stakes Since 2016

The Church reported a net increase of 87 stakes during 2025, as there were 94 new stakes organized and 7 stakes discontinued. This means that there were roughly 13 new stakes organized for every stake discontinued. Recent years have had many more stakes discontinued and far fewer stakes organized, including 2024 (59 stakes created, 15 stakes discontinued) and 2023 (60 new stakes created, 16 stakes discontinued). Approximately 60% of the new stakes created in 2025 were outside of the United States. The Church increased its standards for stakes to be organized outside the United States in regard to the number of active members and qualified priesthood holders to serve in leadership positions (30 more active, full-tithe paying Melchizedek Priesthood holders than what it was previously), suggesting that stakes organized since early 2024 may, on average, be more structurally robust than those organized in previous decades. Finally, the number of stakes in the Church increased by 2.41% - a rate slightly higher than membership growth and highly encouraging for leadership development and perhaps activity rates as well.

New Record Set for Number of Full-time Teaching Missionaries Serving (Excluding the "Double Cohort" Years)

The number of full-time teaching missionaries serving (78,596) increased by nearly 4,500 in 2025 (6.03%) to reach a new record (when excluding the double cohort years when the minimum age for missionary service was decreased by one year for men and two years for women in October 2012). The rate of increase for young single adults serving full-time proselytizing missions remains several times higher than annual membership growth and suggests an increasing percentage of eligible members choosing to serve missions. It is important to note that many youth and young single adult converts serve missions and have contributed to the momentum in the growing worldwide missionary force. Although these numbers continue to be encouraging, the rate of growth in the number of full-time teaching missionaries is slowing, as the Church reported a year over year increase of 8.52% in 2023 and 9.22% in 2024.

Highest Annual Growth Rate for Total Church Membership Since 2012

Total Church membership increased by 2.16% in 2025 continuing a trend of accelerating membership growth since a low of 0.60% in 2020. This increase was driven not only by record convert baptisms but also by a substantial reduction in membership record removals (approximately 46,000 fewer than in 2024), which significantly amplified net growth. The summation of convert baptisms and children of record was 477,325 in 2025 - the highest ever reported by the Church, breaking the previous record set in 2014 at 413,212. However, the actual net increase in membership in 2025 was 377,431 due to a net removal of 99,894 membership records (it is important to note that this is an estimate, as it does not account for re-baptized members who had their records removed). The net increase in membership in 2025 was the highest reported since 1999 when there was a net increase of 398,745 members. 

Largest Net Increase in Congregations Operating Since 2019; Congregational Growth Continues to Lag Behind Membership Growth

The Church reported a net increase of 370 wards and branches in 2025 - the highest since 2019 when there was a net increase of 404 wards and branches. The number of wards and branches in the Church increased by 1.17% in 2025 which is approximately half of the rate at which membership grew for the year. Congregational growth has long lagged behind membership growth due to compounding retention challenges and persistently low activity rates. The average ward or branch in the Church in 2025 had 558 members, yet most wards have approximately 100-200 active members and the number of active members per branch widely varies. See below for a line graph displaying the average number of members per congregation which indicates steady increases for a quarter of a century. The steady increase in the average number of members per congregation—particularly over the past 25 years—suggests that unit creation has not kept pace with membership growth, and this appears primarily attributed to low activity rates.

Children of Record Increase Remains Low

There was an increase of 91,835 children of record (usually newborns with one or both parents who are members of the Church) added in 2025, which was nearly the same as what was reported in 2024 (91,617). Given a membership of nearly 18 million, this remains a strikingly low figure that reflects declining birth rates, difficulties with young adults marrying (and staying married to have children that they raise in the Church), and problems with creating full-member families in the international Church. The Church regularly reported 100,000-120,000 children of record increase from the years 2008-2018 and has since reported children of record increase ranging from 65,440 in 2020 to 94,266 in 2019. This stands in even starker contrast to the early 1980s when there was only 4-5 million members on Church records yet there were 100,000-124,000 children added to the records annually. If the rate at which children of record were added in the early 1980s were the same today, we would expect approximately 400,000 children added to the records each year. 

2025 Statisical Report

This afternoon, the 2025 Statistical Report was published. I will create a post analyzing the report later today.

2024 Statisical Report

This morning, the Church reported its annual statistical report as of December 31st, 2024.

• Membership: 17,509,781 (increase of 254,387 from 2023; a 1.47% annual increase)
• Congregations: 31,676 (increase of 186 from 2023; a 0.59% annual increase)
• Stakes: 3,608 (increase of 43 from 2023; a 1.21% annual increase)
• Districts: 494 (increase of 5 from 2023; a 5.41% annual decrease)
• Missions: 450 (increase of 36 from 2023; a 8.70% annual increase)
• Convert Baptisms: 308,682 (increase of 56,919 from 2023; a 22.6% annual increase)
• Increase of Children on Record: 91,617 (decrease of 1,977 from 2023; a 2.11% annual decrease)
• Full-time Teaching Missionaries: 74,127 (increase of 6,256 from 2023; a 9.22% annual increase)
• Senior Service Missionaries: 31,120 (increase of 3,319 from 2023; an 11.9% annual increase)
  
• Young Service Missionaries: 4,192 (increase of 308 from 2023; a 7.93% annual increase)

Key Takeaways from the 2024 Statistical Report

1. Convert Baptisms Surge to Highest Levels Since 1997
The Church in 2024 baptized more converts than in any year since 1997—an impressive milestone, especially given the sustained emphasis on meaningful pre-baptism preparation. The increase of nearly 57,000 more convert baptisms compared to 2023 occurred without any single world area being identified as the primary driver, suggesting widespread global momentum.

Despite a modest increase of 6,256 full-time proselytizing missionaries, the average number of baptisms per missionary rose from 3.71 in 2023 to 4.16 in 2024—the highest figure since 2012 (4.62 per missionary). For historical perspective, the modern-era peak was 8.03 baptisms per missionary in 1989.

2. Highest Number of Proselytizing Missionaries (Excluding the “Double Cohort” Years)
With 74,127 full-time missionaries, the Church achieved its highest missionary force ever—outside the anomalous surge from the 2013–2014 age-change “double cohort.” The 9.22% increase marks significant success in mobilizing young adults for missionary service.

3. Most New Missions Since 2013
In 2024, 36 new missions were organized—the second-largest annual increase in modern history, trailing only the 58 missions added in 2013. The 8.7% increase in missions closely mirrors the 9.22% increase in missionary numbers, showing strategic infrastructure expansion to support the rising missionary force.

4. Net Increase in Districts for the First Time Since 2008
A notable turnaround occurred in 2024 with a net gain of five districts—the first such increase in 16 years. The Church organized 28 new districts, the most since 2016. This growth likely reflects expanding outreach in developing areas, where branches are forming and new communities are being opened to missionary work.

5. Highest-Ever Number of Member Record Removals
The Church added 308,682 convert baptisms and 91,617 children of record in 2024, totaling 400,299 new members. Yet total membership only rose by 254,387. This implies at least 145,912 records were removed—due to death, resignation, or loss of membership (formerly known as excommunication).

This figure surpasses the previous high in 2018 (140,868) and suggests intensified record updating or a rise in voluntary resignations. Attrition was 0.86% of the 2023 membership base—comparable to the 0.87% attrition rate in 2018. A more detailed country-by-country breakdown, when available, will help determine where this attrition is most concentrated—likely in the U.S., Mexico, and Brazil, where most members reside.

6. Persistently Low Children of Record Numbers
Children of record remain alarmingly low, continuing a multi-decade trend. The 2024 figure (91,617) is far below the 124,000 recorded in 1982. Adjusted for Church size, that means children of record made up 2.5% of Church membership in 1982 but only 0.53% in 2024—an 80% drop.

This decline reflects both falling birth rates among Latter-day Saints (especially in the U.S.) and the Church's limited success in fostering multi-generational families in newer international areas. In most countries, even where national fertility rates remain high, the Church struggles to retain converts and raise second-generation members.

7. Stakes and Congregations Growing at Half the Rate of Membership
Stakes and congregations increased in 2024, but at about half the rate of total membership growth. This consistent pattern, present for two decades, signals ongoing challenges with member retention and congregation sustainability. While not worsening, the trend continues to show that many new members—particularly converts—are not being integrated into their respective congregations over the long term to warrant the creation of larger numbers of wards and branches.

2023 Statisical Report

This afternoon, the Church reported its Annual statistical report as of December 31st, 2023.

• Membership: 17,255,394 (increase of 252,933 from 2022; a 1.49% annual increase)
• Congregations: 31,490 (increase of 160 from 2022; a 0.51% annual increase)
• Stakes: 3,565 (increase of 44 from 2022; a 1.25% annual increase)
• Districts: 489 (decrease of 28 from 2022; a 5.41% annual decrease)
• Missions: 414 (increase of 3 from 2022; a 0.73% annual increase)
• Convert Baptisms: 251,763 (increase of 39,591 from 2022; an 18.6% annual increase)
• Increase of Children on Record: 93,594 (increase of 4,535 from 2022; a 5.09% annual increase)
• Full-time Teaching Missionaries: 67,871 (increase of 5,327 from 2022; an 8.52% annual increase)
• Senior Service Missionaries: 27,801 (increase of 731 from 2022; a 2.70% annual increase)
  
• Young Service Missionaries: 3,884 (increase of 1,148 from 2022; a 42.0% annual increase)

Several observations regarding the 2023 Statistical Report:

First, annual membership increased by the highest rate since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, at 1.49% (membership increased by 1.54% in 2019). Moreover, the annual rate of membership growth was also greater than for each of the two years prior 2019 (1.48% in 2017, 1.21% in 2018). The summation of new children of record and converts baptized in 2023 was 345,357 - the highest number since 2016. The difference between the summation of new children of record and converts baptized and the actual increase in church membership for 2023 was 92,424 - the lowest number since 2019. Thus, the number of members removed from Church records due to death, resignation, excommunication (loss of membership), or children not being baptized by age 9 was less than for each of the last several years, and this number ranked near all-time lows within the past decade (which has ranged from approximately 92,000 to 140,000).

Second, there was a significant increase in the number of converts baptized in 2023 - the highest number seen since 2015. The percentage increase in new converts baptized in 2023 versus 2022 was 18.6%. Teaching missionaries are baptizing a larger number of converts per missionary now, as the number of teaching missionaries serving increased by only 8.52%. Although this is a positive development for what has been seen within the past decade for convert baptism trends, these numbers remain tens of thousands below the all-time highs of convert baptisms reached in the late 1980s and the 1990s when there were several years of more than 300,000 converts baptized (1990 was the year with the all-time high of 330,877 converts baptized). Nevertheless, it is also important to note that these record years of the most converts baptized had a preponderance of converts baptized with minimal teaching and preparation with high rates of attrition immediately after baptism. Convert retention rates are significantly higher now compared to what they were during these years of the highest numbers of converts baptized.

Third, there was a notable increase (5.09%) in the number of new children added to Church records in 2023 (93,594) compared to 2022 (89,059). This statistic measures the number of unbaptized children, usually infants, who are added to Church records, often after they are blessed and given a name. The number of new children added to Church records in 2023 was the highest reported since 2019 when there was an increase of 94,266 children added to Church records. The Church has struggled for decades to augment the number of children born in the Church and added to the records. The Church reached its all-time high for the most new children of record added more than 40 years ago back in 1982 at 124,000. This is a sobering trend reflecting not only the dramatically decreasing size of Latter-day Saint families in the United States and other developed countries (as well as issues with divorce and young adults not marrying), but it also shows that the Church has struggled to establish full-member families in countries with the highest membership growth rates that often have much higher fertility rates than the United States and other developed nations (such as in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and the Philippines).

Fourth, the number of full-time missionaries serving has continued to significantly increase, including for both teaching missionaries and service missionaries. The number of teaching missionaries serving in 2023 was the highest it has ever been in the Church when the four-year period of the "double cohort" is excluded (as these years included many more members serving missions because of the lowering of the minimum age for missionary service by one year for men and two years for women). The average number of converts baptized per missionary also increased in 2023 to 3.71 - tying with the year 2019 as the year with the most converts baptized per missionary since 2012 (the lowering of the minimum age for missionary service decreased the average number of converts baptized per missionary per year from approximately 5.0 to 3.5). The number of young service missionaries increased by nearly 50% in 2023, albeit these young service missionaries remain a small group (3,884) compared to teaching missionaries (67,871) or senior service missionaries (27,801).

Fifth, the Church reported its most significant percentage decrease in the number of districts (-5.42%) since it began to report the number of districts in the worldwide Church in 1981, and the net decrease in the number of districts for 2023 tied with 1996 as the year with the greatest numerical decrease in the number of districts ever reported (-28). The Church has reported a net decline in the number of districts year over year since 2009. Thus, the number of districts has decreased from 622 as of year-end 2008 to 489 as of year-end 2023. The Church has gone through varying trends with district growth that have corresponded with periods of expansion into previously unreached or lesser-reached areas of the Church, with a period of significant growth from 1987-1994 (expansion in Latin America, the Philippines, and Eastern Europe), a period of decline from 1995 to 2001 (districts maturing into stakes, district consolidations to prepare for stakes), and a period of general stagnation from 2002 to the late 2000s. The significant net decrease in the number of districts in 2023 appeared attributed to consolidating small districts into neighboring stakes or districts, districts maturing into stakes, and few new districts created during the year.

Sixth, the net increase in the number of stakes created in 2023 (44) was the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic, and the net increase in the number of stakes was comparable to 2018 (42) and 2019 (54), albeit the number of stakes discontinued in 2023 (16) was the highest reported since the early 2000s when dozens of stakes were discontinued in Latin America and the Philippines. Eleven (11) of the 16 discontinued stakes in 2023 were in the United States - a country that has typically had few stakes discontinued year to year (usually less than five a year). However, it is important to note that many of these areas with discontinued stakes have for years experienced a decline due to active members moving away with few active members to replace them. 

Seventh, the number of official congregations (i.e., wards and branches) in the Church significantly increased in 2023 when compared to 2022. However, the net increase in the number of official congregations remains approximately half of what was seen at pre-COVID-19 levels. The number of new congregations created in 2023 was less than what was generally seen prior to 2020 for Sub-Saharan Africa which was a major source of new congregations created in the 2010s. Some countries had some significant improvements with net increases in new congregations, such as in Latin America, whereas countries like the United States continue to lag behind what has historically been seen for the rate of new congregations being created.

Trends in mission growth were unremarkable for 2023. However, it is important to note that the Church plans to organize 36 new missions in mid-2024, which would result in 2024 being the year with the second most missions ever created only after 2013 when 58 new missions were created.

2022 Statisical Report

This afternoon, the Church reported its annual statistical report as of December 31st, 2022.

• Membership: 17,002,461 (increase of 197,061 from 2021; a 1.17% annual increase)
• Congregations: 31,330 (increase of 15 from 2021; a 0.048% annual increase)
• Stakes: 3,521 (increase of 23 from 2021; a 0.66% annual increase)
• Districts: 517 (decrease of 3 from 2021; a 0.58% annual decrease)
• Missions: 411 (increase of 4 from 2020; a 0.98% annual increase)
• Convert Baptisms: 212,172 (increase of 43,889 from 2021; a 26.1% annual increase)
• Increase of Children on Record: 89,059 (decrease of 10 from 2021; a 0.01% annual decrease)
• Full-time missionaries: 62,544 (increase of 8,005 from 2021; a 14.7% annual increase)
• Church service missionaries: 29,806 (decrease of 6,833 from 2021; a 18.6% annual decrease)

For the first time, the Church has broken down church service missionaries from young church-service missionaries and senior church-service missionaries. The number of young church-service missionaries was 2,736, whereas the number of senior church-service missionaries was 27,070. 

Several observations with the 2022 Statistical Report.

First, the annual membership growth rate exceed 1% for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Church membership increased by 1.17% during 2022 which was only 0.04% less that the Church's annual membership growth rate in 2018. Thus, annual membership growth rates have returned to the approximate rates seen during the few years prior to the pandemic, although this still remains slightly lower than pre-COVID levels as annual membership growth rates were 1.54% in 2019 1.48% in 2017. Also, the discrepancy in the summation of converts baptized and children under age 8 added to church records and actual net increase in church membership was 104,170 - a typical number for this statistic during the past 10 years. This statistic indicates that the number of deaths, excommunications (loss of membership), resignations, and removal of unbaptized children of record ages 9 and older has remained static during the past 10 years despite church membership increasing from 14.8 million to 17.0 million.

Second, there was a large increase in convert baptisms in 2022 relative to the years 2021 and 2022. The year 2022 was the first time the number of converts baptized exceeded 200,000 since 2019 when there were 248,835 converts baptized. The difference between the number of convert baptisms in 2022 and the number of convert baptisms in 2021 was 43,889 - a slightly larger number than the difference in convert baptisms in 2021 versus the number of convert baptisms in 2020 which was 42,353. The annual number of convert baptisms in 2022 (212,172) has nearly recovered to pre-COVID levels, although the lowest year for the number of convert baptisms (2017) was still nearly 20,000 more than what was seen in 2022.

Third, the annual increase in children of record (i.e., the number of children added to church records who are too young to be baptized - usually a measurement of infants born and blessed during the year) was essentially unchanged for the year 2022 compared to 2021. The Church experienced a significant decrease in this statistic prior the COVID-19 pandemic which dropped from 122,273 in 2012 to 94,266 in 2019. A mere 65,440 children under age 8 were added to church records in 2020 - a statistic that appears attributed to fewer births during the year and members postponing baby blessings when these records are oftentimes created. The encouraging aspect of the 2022 figure for the increase in children of record is that this number has stabilized since the COVID-19 pandemic, and that the figure for 2021 was not artificially higher due to postponed baby blessings which would have likely occurred in 2020 if there were no restrictions associated with the pandemic (in other words - seems unlikely the 2022 figure may be higher due to postponed baby blessings that should have occurred in 2020 or 2021 since there were few or no church meeting/health restrictions for most areas of the world during 2022 and for a good part of 2021 that would result in most members delaying baby blessings). 

Fourth, there was a significant increase in the number of full-time missionaries serving in 2022 (62,544) compared to 2021 (54,539) or 2020 (51,819). The Church reported 58,990 full-time missionaries at year-end 2012 which was a few months after the Church officially lowered its minimum age for full-time missionary service from 19 to 18 for men and 21 to 19 for women. Because of this change, there was a double-cohort of missionaries serving (i.e., those who planned to serve at the original previous minimum ages, those who decided to serve earlier than planned with the revised minimum age, those who decided to serve a mission when the minimum age was announced but who were not previously considering missionary service). As a result, the number of full-time missionaries mushroomed to an all-time annual high of 85,147 in 2014, but this statistic returned to a low of 65,137 in 2018. As of year-end 2019, the Church reported 67,021 full-time missionaries serving. Although the number of full-time missionaries serving remains below pre-COVID level in the late 2010s of approximately 65,000-70,000, the number of full-time missionaries is approaching these levels at an accelerated pace compared to 2021. 

Fifth, the Church reported an unusually low year for both the growth in the number of stakes and official congregations (i.e., wards and branches). The net increase in the number of wards and branches was a mere 15 for 2022 - the lowest net increase in wards and branches seen since 1953 when there was a net decline of 35 wards and branches. Years with unusually small net increases in wards and branches are not atypical in the present-day Church. For example, there was a net increase of a mere 30 wards and branches in 2018, and there was a net increase of 59 wards and branches in 2002. These years have been associated with a combination of significant congregation consolidations in one of more countries with a major church presence and few new congregations being created. In 2022, there was an unusually large number of wards that were discontinued in the United States, whereas there were relatively few new congregations created elsewhere in the world. Reports from members in many countries where high numbers of new congregations are usually created have indicated that there was often an emphasis on strengthening wards and branches, and that some congregations have not returned to pre-COVID levels in terms of church attendance (particularly in West Africa where many members have joined in the Church in the past 5-10 years). The abnormally low year in 2018 was primarily due to widespread congregation consolidations in Mexico, whereas the abnormally low year in 2002 was primarily due to widespread congregation consolidations in Latin America such as Chile. The net increase in the number of stakes in 2022 (23) was the lowest seen since 2003 when there was a net increase of 22 stakes. Relatively few new stakes have been organized since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, including a net increase of only 26 stakes in 2020 and 35 stakes in 2021. It has been common for stake creations to have almost a cyclical pattern of 3-6 years of more rapid growth followed by 3-6 years of slower growth. 

Trends in mission and district growth were unremarkable for 2022. 

Finally, there was a significant decline (18.6%) in the number of church-service missionaries in 2022 - 92% of whom were senior missionaries. I am not sure why this statistic declined so significantly in 2022, but this is a metric that often has much variability. Typically, the number of church-service missionaries has vacillated between 30,000 and 36,000 since 2014.

2021 Statistical Report

This afternoon, the Church reported the following statistics as of December 31st, 2021.

• Membership: 16,805,400 (increase of 141,737 from 2020; a 0.85% annual increase)
• Congregations: 31,315 (increase of 179 from 2020; a 0.57% annual increase)
• Stakes: 3,498 (increase of 35 from 2020; a 1.01% annual increase)
• Districts: 520 (decrease of 17 from 2020; a 3.17% annual decrease)
• Missions: 407 (increase of 2 from 2020; a 0.49% annual increase)
• Convert Baptisms: 168,283 (increase of 42,353 from 2020; a 33.6% annual increase)
• Increase of Children on Record: 89,069 (increase of 23,629 from 2020; a 36.1% annual increase)
• Full-time missionaries: 54,539 (increase of 2,720 from 2020; a 5.25% annual increase)
• Church service missionaries: 36,639 (increase of 6,112 from 2020; a 20.0% annual increase)

As noted last year, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted the Church's operations in nearly all areas of the world, and this has resulted in a significant decrease in growth rates for most metrics reported in the Church's annual statistical reports. For example, the number of converts baptized into the Church in 2020 was 49.4% less than 2019, and the number of children under age 8 added to Church records was 30.6% less in 2020 than in 2019. Moreover, it is also important to note that 2021 was far from a "normal" year for the Church's operations due to the ongoing pandemic, and as a result growth rates for most metrics again were less than normal but generally substantially higher than for 2020. The number of converts baptized in 2021 was 33.6% higher than in 2020, but the number of converts baptized in 2021 was 32.4% less than the number of converts baptized in 2019. There was a greater rebound in number of children added to Church records in 2021 compared to 2020 (36.1% annual increase) compared to convert baptisms, albeit the number of children added to Church records in 2021 remained less than in 2019 (5.51% less). This was probably the greatest surprise in the 2021 Statistical Report for me given I anticipated there would be children who were not blessed and not had membership records created in 2021 that would have had this done in 2021, and thus result in a "double cohort" of children of record increase. The difference between the summation of converts baptized and new children under age 8 added to Church records and net membership increase for the year totaled 115,615 - representative for most years in the past decade (generally 90,000-120,000). This indicates that the rate of deaths, excommunications, resignations, and removal of records for unbaptized children over age 8 has remained constant during this time. Good way to conceptualize membership growth during 2020 and 2021 is that the net increase in membership for these two years combined (240,364) was approximately the net increase just for the year 2019 (251,301).

Statistics regarding congregational growth and stake/district growth were unremarkable for 2021, especially given the pandemic's impact on the ability to organize and hold conferences, reduced church attendance, and travel restrictions for Church leaders. The net decrease in the number of districts for 2021 was 17 - the largest drop in the number of districts since 2013. However, the number of districts in the Church has steadily decreased at a very low rate every year since 2009 (primarily due to the rate of districts maturing into stakes outpacing the creation of new districts). The net increase in the number of stakes for 2021 was 35 - nine more than 2020, but nonetheless the smallest net increase in the number of stakes (excluding 2020) since 2010. The annual rate of congregational growth for 2021 slightly slowed compared to 2020 to 0.57% - the lowest rate reported since 2018 (when significant congregation consolidations in Mexico artificially lowered the net increase for the year).

There was a significant increase in the number of Church service missionaries in 2021 compared to 2020 (20.0% increase), and the number of Church service missionaries in 2021 was the highest reported by the Church except for when an all-time record for this statistic was set in 2018 (37,963). However, the number of full-time, proselytizing members serving full-time missions increased by only 2,720 (5.25%) to 54,539. Again, it appears that the ongoing pandemic resulted in many young single adults postponing or cancelling plans to serve full-time missionaries. The many messages in General Conference addresses shared today regarding the importance of full-time missionary service for young men is likely in direct response to these disappointing missionary statistics and increasing opportunities for Church growth in the near future. At year-end 2019, the Church reported 67,021 full-time missionaries which indicates an 18.6% decrease for the two-year period. The Church reported gradual increases in the number of members serving full-time missions in the late 2000s and early 2010s from 51,736 in 2009 to 58,990 in 2012 (just a few months after the announcement on the lowering of the minimum age for full-time missionary service) until the number of members serving full-time missions reached an artificial high of 85,147 in 2014 that resulted from a double-cohort of age groups serving full-time missions (i.e., members who began their service at the previous minimum age versus members beginning their service at the revised age). After this double-cohort passed, the number of members serving full-time missions settled to around 65,000-70,000.

2020 Statistical Report: Analysis of Major Developments

As promised, I have provided an analysis of the 2020 statistical report. See below for some of the major highlights indicated in this report. These data need to be interpreted within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Government and church restrictions on missionary work and church activities appears primarily responsible for significant declines in membership growth during the year.

Significant Decline in Convert Baptisms

The number of convert baptisms in 2020 was a mere 125,930 - a stunning 49.4% decrease from the number of convert baptisms reported in 2019. This is the lowest number of convert baptisms reported by the Church since 1975 when there was 95,412 converts baptized. A significant decline in the number of convert baptisms during 2020 was anticipated given significant restrictions with missionary work worldwide. Most mission in the Church reported a large decrease in the number of convert baptisms during 2020, albeit in late 2020 there were also reports of some missions where the number of mostly convert baptisms surpassed the number of baptisms for the same month in 2019. Nevertheless, convert baptisms dramatically decreased in 2020, and this decreased appeared primarily due to the pandemic.

Significant Decline in Annual Children of Record Increase

Children of record are children under age 8 who are added to church records usually shortly after birth. The increase in children of record in 2020 was only 65,440. The most recent year when the annual increase of children of record was approximately this low was 2001 when 69,522 children were added to church records. The last time the Church regularly reported an increase of children of record in the 60,000s was in the early 1970s. Fewer and fewer children have been added to church records since 2012 when there were 122,273 children added to the records. In 2019, the increase in children of record was 94,266 - the first time this statistic was below 100,000 since 2007. However, the dramatic decline of approximately 30,000 in 2020 appears primarily due to delays in blessing children among infants born to church members (myself included - my son was born in August 2020 and we did not do his blessing until February 2021 which is when he was officially added to church records). Many members have chosen to postpone blessing their infant children and adding them to church records during the pandemic until gathering restrictions are relaxed to permit extended family to visit for this ordinance.

Children of record increase has had previous periods of accelerating and decelerating growth. For example, the Church reached an all-time high for increase of children of record in 1982 at 124,000. Annual children of record increase steadily increased from the early 1970s to the early 1980s and then decreased to the 90,000s in the mid to late 1980s, the 70,000s for most years in the 1990s, 80,000s for most years in the early 2000s, and the 90,000s for most years in the mid to late 2000s. It is anticipated that the increase in children of record for 2021 may be much higher than 2020 or previous years if COVID-19 restrictions are relaxed and conditions continue to normalize. However, the Church continues to report decreasing numbers of annual children of record increase. Lower birth rates among North American Latter-day Saints, married members constituting smaller percentages of overall church membership, and difficulties with establishing full-member families outside the United States are some of the primary causes for recent decelerating growth trends with this metric.

Lowest Annual Membership Growth Rate Since 1857

The year 2020 was the year with the slowest membership growth reported by the Church in more than 150 years. The last time the Church reported an annual membership growth rate that was slower than 2020 was in 1857 when negative membership growth occurred (this was during the time of the reformation movement when church leaders advocated re-baptism to recommit to their covenants and to church teachings). Church membership increased by 98,627 in 2020 - a 0.60% increase from 2019. The last time there was an increase of less than 100,000 for total church membership was in 1973 when there was a net increase of 87,750 members. Despite significant decreases in members being added to church records, the number of members removed from church records in 2020 appeared consistent with recent years. The difference between the summation of convert baptisms and new children of record and the actual increase in church membership was 92,743. This statistic has remained consistently around 90,000-120,000 for most years since 2013 and represents the approximate numbers of members removed from church records due to death, excommunication, resignation, or children of record over age 8 who do not get baptized and confirmed as members of the Church. Thus, the pandemic did not appear to significantly change trends with deaths, excommunications, resignations, or removal of unbaptized children of record over age 8 for the year 2020.

Congregational Growth Rate Surpasses Membership Growth Rate

This is a significant development given that the last time congregational growth rates surpassed membership growth rates was in 1998. Low membership growth rates appear primarily responsible for congregational growth rates surpassing membership growth rates. Nevertheless, it is important to note that congregational growth rates did not fall as significantly as membership growth rates during 2020 to the point that the worldwide average number of members per congregation decreased from 535.4 to 535.2. There were significant periods of time in 2020 when the Church organized or discontinued extremely few congregations (primarily from March until August). Approval to organize new wards and branches often takes months, or even years, to complete, and thus many of the congregations created in 2020 were likely planned and approved before the pandemic began. Many of the new congregations organized in 2020 were in the United States. There was a significant deceleration in congregational growth rates in most of Sub-Saharan Africa with a few exceptions (such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo). Nevertheless, congregational growth rates have become more commensurate with membership growth rates for most recent years which suggests improvements in convert retention and member activity in the countries with the most congregations (such as the United States and Brazil). However, compounding convert attrition and member inactivity has plagued membership records for decades in most countries of the world. Although the average ward or branch in the Church has 535 members on its records, most congregations in the Church (prior to the COVID-19 pandemic) had between 100-200 active members. 

Full-time Missionary Numbers Significantly Decrease

The Church has reported approximately 65,000-70,000 members serving full-time missions for most years since the end of the "surge" in the double-cohort of full-time missionaries in the early to mid-2010s. The Church reported only 51,819 members serving full-time proselytizing missions as of year-end 2020. The number of full-time missionaries widely vacillated during the year due to temporary releases or early permanent releases of full-time missionaries during the year. Many members have appeared to chose to postpone missionary service until conditions further normalize. Nevertheless, many members continue to begin missionary service, albeit their numbers appear less than normal. This is also a likely metric to see a significant and temporary increase in 2021 if conditions continue to improve.

2020 Statistical Report

This afternoon, the Church reported the following statistics as of December 31st, 2020.

• Membership: 16,663,663 (increase of 98,627 from 2019; a 0.60% annual increase)
• Congregations: 31,136 (increase of 196 from 2019; a 0.63% annual increase)
• Stakes: 3,463 (increase of 26 from 2019; a 0.76% annual increase)
• Districts: 537 (decrease of 5 from 2019; a 0.92% annual decrease)
• Missions: 405 (increase of 6 from 2019; a 1.25% annual decrease)
• Convert Baptisms: 125,930 (decrease of 122,905 from 2019; a 49.4% annual decrease)
• Increase of Children on Record: 65,440 (decrease of 28,826 from 2019; a 30.6% annual decrease)
• Full-time missionaries: 51,819 (decrease of 15,202 from 2019; a 22.7% annual decrease)
• Church service missionaries: 30,527 (decrease of 806 from 2019; a 2.57% annual decrease)

I will post an analysis of these numbers in the coming days.

2019 Statistical Report

This afternoon, the Church reported the following statistics as of December 31st, 2019.

• Membership: 16,565,036 (increase of 251,301 from 2018; a 1.54% annual increase)
• Congregations: 30,940 (increase of 404 from 2018; a 1.32% annual increase)
• Stakes: 3,437 (increase of 54 from 2018; a 1.60% annual increase)
• Districts: 542 (decrease of 5 from 2018; a 0.91% annual decrease)
• Missions: 399 (decrease of 14 from 2018; a 1.97% annual decrease)
• Convert Baptisms: 248,835 (increase of 14,503 from 2018; a 6.19% annual increase)
• Increase of Children on Record: 94,266 (decrease of 7,836 from 2018; a 7.67% annual decrease)
• Full-time missionaries: 67,021 (increase of 1,884 from 2018; a 2.89% annual increase)
• Church service missionaries: 31,333 (decrease of 6,630 from 2018; a 17.5% annual decrease)

The 2019 Statistical Report stands out for several major reasons in comparison to recent statistical reports.

First, 2019 was the first year since 2012 in which the rate of membership growth has accelerated instead of decelerated. Annual membership growth rates slowed between 2013 and 2018 from 2.36% at year-end 2012 to a mere 1.21% at year-end 2018. The annual membership growth rate for the Church in 2019 was the highest since 2016 (1.54% versus 1.59%). Country-by-country statistics will be needed to determine where this membership growth occurred. These data are usually released 1-2 weeks after General Conference.

Second, 2019 is the first year since 2014 that the annual number of convert baptisms has increased by a sizable amount compared to the prior year. The annual number of convert baptisms slowed in the mid- and late 2010s from 296,803 in 2014 to a low of 233,729 in 2017. The number of convert baptisms in 2019 was 14,503 more than the number of convert baptisms in 2018. The average number of converts baptized per mission in 2019 (3.71) was also the highest reported by the Church since 2012 (4.62).

Third, the discrepancy between the summation of increase in children of record and convert baptisms and the actual annual increase in Church membership significantly decreased in 2019 in comparison to 2018. Altogether, the Church reported 343,101 new members added through children of record (i.e. children born into the Church or added to records who are under age 8) and convert baptisms (i.e. individuals age 9 or older who join the Church and who were not previously removed from Church records by excommunication or resignation). The difference between year-end 2018 and year-end 2019 membership is 91,800, suggesting that at least this many people had their names removed from Church records during 2019. The last time the Church had this small of a discrepancy in children of record + convert baptisms and actual membership increase was in 2012 (53,476).

Fourth, the Church in 2019 reported its lowest number of children added to Church records since 2007 at 91,800. The Church consistently reported over 100,000 children of record added each year between 2008 and 2018. This statistic indicates declining birth rates among Church members, particularly in countries with the largest Church memberships like the United States, Mexico, and Brazil. The Church in Utah particularly has appeared to experience a significant decrease in birth rates as Utah is no longer the state in the United States with the highest birthrate even though Latter-day Saints constitute approximately two-thirds of the state population.

Fifth, the Church in 2019 reported its largest net increase in the number of congregations (i.e. wards and branches) since 2005. The annual congregational growth rate for 2019 was also the highest reported by the Church since 2015. Also, 2019 was the year with the most equal membership and congregational growth since 1996. Commensurate membership and congregational growth rates suggest stable member activity and convert retention rates as the creation of new congregations usually requires increases in the number of active members.

Sixth, the number of full-time missionaries serving in 2019 increased for the first time since the surge in the number of full-time missionaries serving in 2013 and 2014 caused by the reduction in the minimal mission age. This increase indicates that the Church has finally surpassed the artificial increase and decrease in the number of missionaries serving due to the double age cohort, and that perhaps a slight increase in young adults serving full-time missions may have occurred.

Seventh, the Church reported a significant decrease in the number of Church service missionaries serving in 2019. This statistic has increased dramatically in the past decade as there were approximately 23,000 Church service missionaries in 2012. I am unsure why this statistic has decreased and I would be interested in hearing ideas on what this may indicate.

2019 Statistical Report - Predictions

This weekend, the Church will release its 2019 Statistical Report with data as of year-end 2019. I do not see any significant changes in growth trends during 2019 compared to recent years with the exception of a major increase in the number of congregations (i.e. wards and branches) of approximately 400. Here are my predictions for the likely numbers to be reported:

• Membership: 16.5-16.6 million
• Wards and Branches: ~30,930
• Stakes: 3,437
• Districts: 542
• Missions: 399
• Dedicated Temples: 167
• Convert Baptisms: 230,000-260,000
• Full-time Missionaries Serving: 68,000
• Church-service Missionaries: 35,000-40,000
• Increase in Children of Record (ICR): 100,000-110,000
• Net Annual Increase in Membership: 200,000-225,000
• Membership and Convert Baptisms/ICR discrepancy*: 90,000-120,000

*This statistic is the difference between the summation of convert baptisms and increase of children of record, and the annual numerical increase for total church membership reported by the Church. This discrepancy in numbers constitutes members removed from church records due to death, excommunication, unbaptized children of record who reach age 18, and resignations.

Click on the "statistical report" label below to compare these numbers with previous statistical reports provided by the Church in previous years.

2018 Statistical Report

This afternoon, the Church reported the following statistics as of December 31st, 2018.

• Membership: 16,313,735 (increase of 195,566 from 2017; a 1.21% annual increase)
• Congregations: 30,536 (increase of 30 from 2017; a 0.10% annual increase)
• Stakes: 3,383 (increase of 42 from 2017; a 1.26% annual increase)
• Districts: 547 (decrease of 6 from 2017; a 1.08% annual decrease)
• Missions: 407 (decrease of 14 from 2017; a 3.33% annual decrease)
• Convert Baptisms: 234,332 (increase of 603 from 2017; a 0.26% annual increase)
• Increase of Children on Record: 102,102 (decrease of 4,669 from 2016; a 4.37% annual decrease)
• Full-time missionaries: 65,137 (decrease of 1,912 from 2017; a 2.94% annual decrease)
• Church service missionaries: 37,963 (increase of 1,791 from 2017; a 4.95% annual increase)

Compared to the statistical report for 2017, the Church in 2018 reported no significant change in regards to the number of converts baptized and increase in children of record. However, the most startling finding with the 2018 statistical report is a significant increase in the number of membership records that have been removed. The number of membership records added to the Church in 2018 through convert baptisms and increase in children of record (usually children born to parents who are Church members) was 336,434. To put this into perspective, most years in the past two decades have had 340,000-400,000 new members added to the Church through convert baptisms or increase in children of record. However, the actual increase in church membership during the year 2018 was a mere 195,566. This is the lowest net increase in church membership since 1978 when the Church reported a net increase of 194,000 members. The summation of convert baptisms and increase in children of record minus the net increase of church-reported membership gives a number that represents the approximate number of membership records removed from Church records (when I say approximate it is because we have no data available about the number of excommunicated members who are re-baptized into the Church a year as these baptisms do not count as convert baptisms). This number is 140,868 for 2018, whereas it was only 104,748 for 2017. As a result, 2018 was the year with the largest number of membership records ever removed by the Church in a single year. The second highest year was in 2014 when the discrepancy in convert baptisms/increase in children of record and net increase in church membership equaled 122,903. The Church has removed 100,000 or more membership records as year since 2014. The annual membership growth rate continues to slow, to a mere 1.21% for 2018 - the slowest membership growth rate since 1937.

Why were so many membership records been removed from Church records in 2018? For starters, with consistent increases in total church membership for many decades, the number membership records that are removed each year is naturally going to increase. However, this does not appear to explain most of the reason why there was such a large increase in records removed in 2018. Improvements with clerk resources for tracking and updating membership records appears to have been part of this increase in membership records removals. It appears that a large number of membership records removed year to year are children of record who are not baptized by age nine. As the Church reported a sudden increase in children of record beginning in 2008 (a 31.8% increase in a single year from 93,698 to 123,502) that was sustained for several consecutive years in the 120,000s, it appears that perhaps many of these children of record have not been baptized and therefore have been removed from the official membership totals (children born during these years recently reached baptismal age). Resignations (individuals who request to have their names removed from Church records) may have also increased in 2018 compared to previous years although the vast majority of these individuals have been inactive members for a considerable period of time. Lastly, an increase in deaths due to aging church membership may also account for this increase in record removals.

Concerns with slowing church growth continued to be apparent from the 2018 statistical report like in the 2017 statistical report. For example, the net increase in the number of congregations (i.e. wards and branches) also reached a 65-year-old low set back in 1953 when there was a decrease of 35 congregations. However, this statistics was strongly affected by the closure of approximately 150 wards and branches in Mexico as part of an area-wide initiative to create larger congregations that better utilize meetinghouse spaces, particularly within Mexico City.

2018 Statistical Report - Predictions

Based upon recent growth trends and information gathered over the past year, the following is my prediction for various statistics to be reported in the annual 2018 statistical report tomorrow afternoon. I foresee no significant differences in global church growth trends for 2018 in comparison to 2017 albeit congregational growth rates (i.e. net increase in the number of wards/branches) significantly slowed in 2018 primarily due to the closure of approximately 150 congregations in Mexico as part of an area-wide effort to increase the number of active members in each ward or branch, and a slower-than-normal year for the rate of new congregations being created worldwide. Otherwise, information I have obtained thus far suggests no other significant changes in global growth trends in 2018 in comparison to recent years, with the exception of increases in temple attendance. However, greater temple participation during 2018 will not be reflected in the statistics traditionally reported during statistical reports at General Conference.

This is what I predict for the 2018 statistical report:

• Membership: 16.3-16.4 million
• Wards and Branches: ~30,560
• Stakes: 3,383
• Districts: 545
• Missions: 407
• Dedicated Temples: 161
• Convert Baptisms: 230,000-260,000
• Full-time Missionaries Serving: 65,000
• Church-service Missionaries: 35,000-40,000
• Increase in Children of Record (ICR): 100,000-110,000
• Membership and Convert Baptisms/ICR discrepancy*: 90,000-120,000

*This statistic is the difference between the summation of convert baptisms and increase of children of record, and the annual numerical increase for total church membership reported by the Church. This discrepancy in numbers constitutes members removed from church records due to death, excommunication, unbaptized children of record who reach age 18, and resignations.

Click on the "statistical report" label below to compare these numbers with previous statistical reports provided by the Church in previous years. World data for LDS growth trends since 1975 can be found here.

2017 Statistical Report

This afternoon, the Church reported the following statistics as of December 31st, 2017.

• Membership: 16,118,169 (increase of 235,752 from 2016; a 1.48% annual increase)
• Congregations: 30,506 (increase of 202 from 2016; a 0.67% annual increase)
• Stakes: 3,341 (increase of 75 from 2016; a 2.3% annual increase)
• Districts: 553 (decrease of 3 from 2016; a 0.54% annual decrease)
• Missions: 421 (decrease of 1 from 2016; a 0.24% annual decrease)
• Convert Baptisms: 233,729 (decrease of 6,402 from 2016; a 2.74% annual decrease)
• Increase of Children on Record: 106,771 (decrease of 2,475 from 2016; a 2.27% annual decrease)
• Full-time missionaries: 67,049 (decrease of 3,897 from 2016; a 5.49% annual decrease)
• Church service missionaries: 36,172 (increase of 2,207 from 2016; a 6.50% annual increase)

Stake growth during 2017 constituted the primary positive development in the statistical report as stake growth rates during the year continued to be sustained at a more rapid rate than during the 17-year period between 1999 and 2015. Stake growth is often considered one of the most robust indicators of "real growth" in the Church has stakes must meet certain member activity requirements to operate. Although it may seem counter-intuitive for stake growth rates to outpace congregational growth rates by more than 3 to 1, many stakes organized during 2017, a well as during 2016, were created from member districts advancing into stakes. When a district is organized into a stake, usually no new congregations are organized as individual branches are upgraded into wards in the new stake. As a result, many new stakes may be organized without any increases in the total number of official congregations.

There were many negative developments contained in the 2017 statistical report. Most alarming, LDS membership growth rates have decelerated to their lowest levels since 1937 at a mere 1.48% during 2017. Annual membership growth rates have steadily decelerated for more than 40 years from an average of 4-6% in the 1970s to approximately 4% in the 1980s, 3% in the 1990s, 2.5% in the 2000s, and 1.5-2.0% in the 2010s. However, this is primarily attributed to membership growth rates in the United States, Brazil, Mexico, the Philippines, Chile, and Peru during these decades. Global membership growth rates primarily reflect the Church's membership growth in the United States and the nine countries with the most church-reported members as the Church has historically reported approximately 70% of its annual membership increase in these 10 nations.

Slowing annual membership growth rates appear primarily a function of slightly decreasing numbers of converts baptized a year and slightly decreasing numbers of new unbaptized children added to church records. The number of convert baptisms in 2017 was the lowest reported by the Church since 1987 when there were 227,000 converts baptized. The all-time high for annual convert baptisms was set in 1990 at approximately 331,000 - 100,000 more converts baptized than in 2017 even though there were only 44,000 missionaries serving in 1990. Increase in children of record has remained above 100,000 since 2008 and has typically vacillated between 110,000 and 120,000. To contrast, annual increase in children of record was less than 100,000 between 1984 and 2007. Few convert baptisms has appeared primarily due to a lack of member-missionary participation, allocation of most full-time missionaries to countries with low or modest receptivity, a conservative implementation of the centers-of-strength policy, local leadership development problems, and quick-baptism tactics (e.g. cursory teaching that rushes prospective converts to membership) that sacrifice quality preparation and conversion in order to meet arbitrary baptismal goals on paper.

The difference between the summation of converts baptized and increase in children of record (e.g. converts baptized plus increase in children of record), and church-reported total membership between 2016 and 2017 (e.g. actual membership increase for the year) was 104,748 for 2017. This indicates that there were approximately 100,000 members who were removed from church records during 2017 due to death, children of record who were never baptized at baptismal age, excommunication, or resignation. This statistic has exceeded 100,000 for four years in a row but is lower than the all-time high set back in 2014 (122,903).

Congregational growth rates during 2017 also decelerated compared to 2016 to their lowest levels since 2011. However, worldwide congregational growth rates were primarily affected by scores of congregations closed in California during 2017, along with a slower-than-normal year for new ward/branch creations elsewhere in the United States. As a result, there was no noticeable change in the number of wards/branches in the United States during 2017, whereas there was an increase of approximately 200 congregations outside of the United States during the year. The Church has generally reported an annual increase of 200-250 congregations outside of the United States for the past four years, whereas it reported an annual increase of 100-150 congregations for most years between 2004 and 2013. Historically, the Church in the United States has reported an increase of approximately 100-200 congregations a year until 2016 when there was a net increase of 65 congregations for the year.

2017 Statistical Report - Predictions

Based upon recent LDS growth trends and information gathered over the past year, the following is my prediction for various statistics to be reported in the annual 2017 statistical report tomorrow afternoon. I foresee no significant differences in global church growth trends for 2017 in comparison to 2016 albeit congregational growth rates (i.e. net increase in the number of wards/branches) in the United States in the United States significantly decreased in 2017 compared to 2016. This was primarily attributed to scores of ward/branch closures in California and a slower-than-average year for congregational growth elsewhere in the United States. Otherwise, information I have obtained thus far suggests no other significant changes in global growth trends in 2017 in comparison to recent years.

This is what I predict for the 2017 statistical report:

• Membership: 16.1-16.2 million
• Wards and Branches: ~30,500
• Stakes: 3,341
• Districts: 553
• Missions: 421
• Temples: 159
• Convert Baptisms: 230,000-260,000
• Full-time Missionaries Serving: 68,000
• Church-service Missionaries: 30,000-37,000
• Increase in Children of Record (ICR): 100,000-120,000
• Membership and Convert Baptisms/ICR discrepancy*: 90,000-120,000

*This statistic is the difference between the summation of convert baptisms and increase of children of record, and the annual numerical increase for total church membership. This discrepancy in numbers constitutes members removed from church records due to death, excommunication, unbaptized children of record who reach age 18, and resignations.

Click on the "statistical report" label below to compare these numbers with previous statistical reports provided by the Church in previous years. World data for LDS growth trends since 1975 can be found here.

2016 Statistical Report

This afternoon, the Church reported the following statistics as of December 31st, 2016.

• Membership: 15,882,417 (increase of 248,218 from 2015; a 1.59% annual increase)
• Congregations: 30,304 (increase of 288 from 2015; a 0.96% annual increase)
• Stakes: 3,266 (increase of 92 from 2015; a 2.90% annual increase)
• Districts: 556 (decrease of 2 from 2015; a 0.36% annual decrease)
• Missions: 421 (increase of 3 from 2015; a 0.72% annual increase)
• Convert Baptisms: 240,131 (decrease of 17,271 from 2015; a 6.71% annual decrease)
• Increase of Children on Record: 109,246 (decrease of 5,304 from 2015; a 4.63% annual decrease)
• Full-time missionaries: 70,946 (decrease of 3,133 from 2015; a 4.23% annual decrease)
• Church service missionaries: 33,965 (increase of 2,186 from 2015; a 6.88% annual increase)

The increase in the number of stakes constitutes the greatest positive development in the 2016 statistical report. The number of stakes increased by 2.90% during the year - the highest annual percentage growth rate for the Church since 1998. Improvements in leadership development outside North America and emphasis on reducing the number of congregations per stake in certain areas of the United States appear to primarily drive accelerated stake growth in 2016. The number of church service missionaries also increased by 6.88% in 2016 compared to 2015.

Essentially all other indicators of church growth reported in the 2016 Statistical Report suggest slightly decelerating growth for the Church as a whole. Congregational growth trends constitute the greatest concern in the report as the increase in the number of congregations (wards and branches) organized in 2016 significantly declined compared to 2015 (e.g. 288 versus 395). The number of converts baptized, increase of children on record, and the number of full-time missionaries serving all declined compared to 2015 although these declines were slight (e.g. 4-7%). In other words, the productivity of the Church as measured by converts baptized, increase of children on record, and full-time missionaries serving has appeared relatively unchanged or slightly less than 2015. The "double cohort" of full-time missionaries serving that resulted in the reduction in the minimum age for missionary service in late 2012 has appeared to have fully come to an end, resulting in no more artificial inflation in the number of members serving full-time missions. Thus, future changes in the number of missionaries serving will reflect the rate of members serving full-time missionaries.

Membership growth for the Church slowed to 1.59% in 2016 - the lowest annual percentage growth in membership since 1937. The net increase in church membership during 2016 was a mere 248,218 - the lowest annual net increase in church membership since 1983. The summation of convert baptisms and increase of children on record was 349,377 - the lowest since 2005.

Not all aspects of membership growth statistics reported in 2016 indicate negative developments. Fewer members appeared to have had their names removed from church records due to death, resignation, or excommunication during 2016. The difference between the summation of converts baptized and increase of children on record and net increase in church membership was 101,159 in 2016. Although this is the third highest number for this statistics, it is less than what it was for 2015 (110,090) or 2016 (122,903).

2015 Statistical Report

This afternoon, the Church reported the following statistics as of December 31st, 2015.

• Membership: 15,634,199 (increase of 261,862 from 2014; a 1.70% annual increase)
• Congregations: 30,016 (increase of 395 from 2014; a 1.33% annual increase)
• Stakes: 3,174 (increase of 60 from 2014; a 1.93% annual increase)
• Districts: 558 (decrease of 3 from 2014; a 0.53% annual decrease)
• Missions: 418 (increase of 12 from 2014; a 3.0% annual increase)
• Convert Baptisms: 257,402 (decrease of 39,401 from 2014; a 13.3% annual decrease)
• Increase of Children on Record: 114,550 (decrease of 1,859 from 2014; a 1.62% annual decrease)
• Full-time missionaries: 74,079 (decrease of 11,068 from 2014; a 13.0% annual decrease)
• Church service missionaries: 31,779 (increase of 1,375 from 2014; a 4.5% annual increase)

The decline in the number of full-time missionaries serving, and the commensurate decrease in the number of convert baptisms, constitutes the most surprising development in the 2015 statistical report. The number of convert baptisms and the number of full-time missionaries serving decreased by 13% during 2015 - the largest annual decrease in the number of convert baptisms since 2003. It is interesting to note that the average number of converts baptized per missionary remained unchanged during 2015 as an average of 3.5 converts were baptized per missionary during the year. Also, the discrepancy in the summation of convert baptisms and increase in children of record, and the annual net increase in church membership, totaled 110,090 - a decrease of 12,813 compared to 2014. In other words, this finding indicates that there was a decrease in 2015 in the number of members removed from church records due to death, excommunication, resignation, or unbaptized children of record who reach age 18 compared to 2014. However, the annual membership growth rate for the Church declined to a mere 1.70% for 2015 - the slowest LDS membership growth rate since 1937 when church membership increased by 0.93%.

Although these findings for membership growth appear concerning, some significant positive LDS growth developments occurred during 2015. First, the Church reported the largest net increase in the number of congregations, and the highest percentage increase in congregations, since 2005. Second, the Church reported the most commensurate membership and congregational growth since 1998. In other words, the rates of membership and congregational growth were the most similar since 1998. As a result, the average number of members per congregation in the worldwide church barely increased from 519 to 521. Third, the Church has sustained steady increases in the number of stakes within the past five years (approximately 50-60), whereas the Church reported smaller net increases in the number of stakes in the 2000s (approximately 30-40).

In conclusion, the results of the 2015 Annual Statistical Report suggests that the Church has achieved good improvements in convert retention and local leadership development at the expense of fewer converts baptized. Greater "real growth" has appeared to occur that emphasizes quality instead of quantity - otherwise we would expect to see similar declines in LDS statistical measurements that reflect member activity rates (e.g. stakes and congregations). Rapid LDS growth in several African nations, where higher convert retention and member activity rates occur, have also likely affected LDS growth trends in the worldwide Church and may explain some of these improvements.

2015 Statistical Report - Predictions

Based upon recent LDS growth trends and information gathered over the past year, the following are my predictions for various statistics to be reported in the annual 2015 statistical report this afternoon:

• Membership: 15.6-15.7 million
• Wards and Branches: 30,005
• Stakes: 3,174
• Districts: 558
• Missions: 418
• Temples: 149
• Convert Baptisms: 280,000-300,000
• Full-time Missionaries Serving: 74,079
• Church-service Missionaries: 25,000-35,000
• Increase in Children of Record (ICR): 110,000-130,000
• Membership and Convert Baptisms/ICR discrepancy*: 100,000-135,000

*This statistic is the difference between the summation of convert baptisms and increase of children of record, and the annual numerical increase for total church membership. This discrepancy in numbers constitutes members removed from church records due to death, excommunication, unbaptized children of record who reach age 18, and resignations.

2014 Statistical Report

This afternoon, the Church reported the following statistics as of December 31st, 2014.

• Membership: 15,372,337 (increase of 290,309 from 2013; a 1.92% annual increase)
• Congregations: 29,621 (increase of 368 from 2013; a 1.26% annual increase)
• Stakes: 3,114 (increase of 64 from 2013; a 2.10% annual increase)
• Districts: 561 (a decrease of 10 from 2013; a 1.78% annual decrease)
• Convert Baptisms: 296,803 (increase of 13,858 from 2013; a 4.90% annual increase)
• Increase of Children on Record: 116,409 (increase of 923 from 2013; a 0.80% annual increase)
• Full-time missionaries: 85,147 (increase of 2,112 from 2013; a 2.54% annual increase)
• Church service missionaries: 30,404 (increase of 6,372 from 2013; a 26.5% annual increase)

The significant increase in the number of church service missionaries constitutes the greatest growth development within 2014 as evidenced by an annual increase of 26.5%. It is unclear what has fueled this growth, but larger numbers of North American Latter-day Saints reaching retirement age and desiring to serve church-service missions from their homes may be a source for this unexpected increase. The trend in decreasing the discrepancy between membership and congregational growth rates continued in 2014. This suggests higher convert retention rates and possible improvements in member activity rates in some areas of the world. However, the number of convert baptisms remained disappointingly low compared to the number of missionaries serving for 2014. The average number of converts baptized per missionary inched upward from 3.4 converts baptized per missionary in 2013 to 3.5 converts baptized per missionary in 2014.

There were several indicators that "real growth" accelerated in 2014. The net increase for the number of stakes was the highest the Church has experienced in 16 years and the net increase for the number of congregations was the highest the Church has reported in eight years. The Church also set a new record for the most members serving full-time missions and church service missions.

Another interesting finding with the 2014 statistical report was that the Church set a new all-time record for the largest increase in the number of members added to its records within a single year (413,212). However, the Church also set a new record for the largest difference between the number of members added to its records and the net increase in membership for the year (112,903). In other words, the number of children added to church records and the number of converts baptized during 2014 was 112,903 shy of the net increase of these two statistics. This suggests that there were a significant number of individuals removed from church records during the year. Most of these removals were likely due to renewed efforts in many areas of the world to update local membership records.

2013 Statistical Report

This afternoon, the Church reported the following statistics as of December 31st, 2013.

• Membership: 15,082,028 (increase of 299,555 from 2011; a 2.03% annual increase)
• Congregations: 29,253 (increase of 239 from 2011; a 0.82% annual increase)
• Stakes: 3,050 (increase of 45 from 2012; a 1.50% annual increase)
• Districts: 571 (a decrease of 20 from 2012; a 3.38% annual decrease)
• Convert Baptisms: 282,945 (increase of 10,615 from 2012; a 3.90% annual increase)
• Increase of Children on Record: 115,486 (decrease of 6,787 from 2012; a 5.55% annual decrease)
• Full-time missionaries: 83,035 (increase of 24,045 from 2012; a 40.8% annual increase)
• Church service missionaries: 24,032 (increase of 1,071 from 2012; a 4.66% annual increase)

Aside from the massive jump in the number of full-time missionaries serving, there were few noteworthy developments in the 2013 statistical report. Congregational and membership growth rates were more commensurate than in many previous years, suggesting higher convert retention and member activity rates. The number of convert baptisms was disappointingly low compared to the number of missionaries serving. The average number of converts baptized per missionary dropped to a new all-time low of 3.4 converts baptized per missionary.