Additional Information on New Mission Creations and the Surge in the Number of Full-time Missionaries Serving

The Church News published an article last week that provides additional data regarding the number of missionaries serving and plans for new missions to be organized in 2024. Data not previously disclosed that is included in this article includes the following:

• Projections of small, steady increases in the number of full-time missionaries serving during the next 10 years.
• A likely need to organize more missions within the next 3-4 years.
• The worldwide number of convert baptisms in the third quarter of 2023 was higher than it was in the third quarter of 2019.
• Higher numbers of self-referrals in the media currently than in the past.
• The number of applications submitted for senior couple missionaries within the past month has exceeded anything seen in the history of the Church since Elder Rasband invited more senior couples to serve full-time missions in his General Conference address.
• Some missions have become "rather large" with the number of missionaries assigned, especially in Utah, due to the integration of service missionaries and teaching missionaries into the same missions.
  

More than 71,000 Full-Time Missionaries Serving and Predictions for New Missions in 2024

In his General Conference address yesterday, Elder Neil L. Andersen mentioned that there are more than 71,000 full-time missionaries serving throughout the world. This marks an increase of at least 8,456 full-time missionaries serving from year-end 2022 when there were 62,544 full-time missionaries serving - a 13.5% increase in nine months. This is a major increase in the number of members serving full-time missions within a short period of time. The Church would have an increase of 11,275 missionaries by year-end 2023 for a total of 73,819 if the assumption is made that the average of 939.56 more missionaries serving each month is sustained until the end of December. Since 1978, there have been only two years when the number of full-time missionaries serving has increased at a more rapid rate: 2022 (14.7%) and 2013 (40.8%). However, these two years had artificially higher numbers of new missionaries serving because of delays in members serving missions from prior years due to the COVID-19 pandemic (2022) and the lowering of the minimum age for missionary service (2013). The next year with the highest percentage increase in the number of full-time missionaries was 1989 when there was a 10.0% increase in the number of missionaries serving compared to year-end 1988. 

It is unclear what is driving this acceleration in the number of full-time missionaries serving. Members postponing full-time missionary service due to the COVID-19 pandemic may account for some of this increase, although this likely accounts for a small percentage of recently called full-time missionaries given that it appears that most members who postponed missionary service began their service in 2022. I made a post in early July 2023 about additional details regarding the number of full-time missionaries serving, as the Church had disclosed during its annual new mission presidents training seminar that there were 67,800 full-time missionaries serving as of June 2023. The Church at the time also predicted that there may be as many as 72,000 full-time missionaries serving by the end of 2023. As I noted in my post in July, "This increase has occurred even though there is a smaller demographic of mission-aged young adults in the Church (which is supported by historical children-of-record annual increase numbers, which did not surpass 100,000 until 2008), suggesting an increasing percentage of young single adults serving full-time missions." Currently, the number of full-time missionaries serving has surpassed the number of full-time missionaries serving in year-end 2016 (70,946) - the most recent year that had more than 70,000 missionaries serving. Only three years have had more full-time missionaries serving than at present: 2015 (74,079), 2013 (83,035), and 2014 (85,147). 

A statistic that can give insights into full-time missionary service is the percentage of church membership currently serving full-time missions. See the graph below. As of year-end 2022, 0.37% of church membership were serving a full-time mission - comparable to the percentage of membership serving full-time missions in the late 2000s and early 2010s. However, approximately 0.55% of church membership was serving full-time missions between the late 1980s and early 2000s. To put this into perspective, if 0.55% of church membership were serving full-time missions as of year-end 2022, there would be 93,514 full-time missionaries serving. The decrease in the percentage of church membership serving missions since the early 2000s appears attributed to gentrification of church membership caused by decreased birth rates, low member activity rates in most of the countries with the largest church memberships, and potentially lower rates of full-time missionary service among young adults, particularly in countries where the Church reports large numbers of members.

The number of convert baptisms also increased by 25% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the first quarter of 2022 as I noted in my July 2023 post. If this trend continues for the rest of 2023, there will be an increase in the number of convert baptisms that is approximately twice the rate of the increase in the number of full-time missionaries. If this rate continues for the rest of the year (i.e., if there are 25% more convert baptisms in 2023 compared to 2022), there would be 265,215 convert baptisms for the year - the highest reported by the Church since 2014 when there were 296,803 convert baptisms. If there are 72,000 missionaries serving at the end of 2023, then there will be an average of 3.68 convert baptisms per missionary. However, the number of converts baptized would remain below many years between 1989 and 1999 when there were as many as 330,877 converts baptized in a single year (1990). The average number of converts baptized per missionary has decreased substantially over the past several decades from a high of 8.03 in 1989 to a low of 2.43 in 2020 (see graph below).

Finally, an increase in the number of full-time missionaries serving raises the likelihood that the Church will organize new missions to accommodate this increase, especially if it is anticipated that this increase will be sustained in the coming years. The Church reached an all-time high of 421 missions in 2016 and 2017. There are currently 414 missions worldwide. If the Church were to keep its ratio of 152 missionaries per mission as of year-end 2022 and there are 72,000 missionaries by the end of 2023, the Church would need to have a net increase of 62 missions in 2024 to maintain this ratio. However, decisions on where new missions will be organized will likely depend on what world region recent increases in the number of full-time missionaries serving has come from, with new missions most likely to be organized in the world regions with the greatest increases in the number of new full-time missionaries serving. See below for a list locations that appear likely to have new missions created in the near future along with the number of stakes/districts/mission branches likely to be assigned to each mission if it is organized. Coincidentally, there are 100 locations listed below. I did not plan to have a nice, round number like this, and it instead came from reviewing current mission boundaries and identifying what locations appear most likely to have missions organized given a combination of factors such as the size of the population to be served by the mission, current church infrastructure in the area, recent growth trends, and opportunities for expansion (rarely are locations on this list a perfect combination of all four of these factors and instead many of these prospective mission locations are based on just one or two criteria being met). This list was initially posted on this blog in March 2023, and it has been updated given these recent developments with increases in the number of full-time missionaries.

AFRICA (25 missions)

• Cote d'Ivoire Daloa (1 stake, 6 districts) 
• Democratic Republic of the Congo Likasi (3 stakes)
  
• Democratic Republic of the Congo Kinshasa (third mission) (4 stakes)
  
• Gabon Libreville (4 mission branches)
  
• Ghana Accra (third mission) (4-5 stakes)
  
• Ghana Koforidua (3 stakes, 2 districts)
  
• Ghana Kumasi (second mission) (2-3 stakes, 2-3 districts)
  
• Ghana Takoradi (2 stakes, 2 districts) 
• Ghana Tamale (1 district)
  
• Kenya Eldoret (3 districts)
• Kenya Nairobi (second mission) (1-2 stakes, 1-3 districts)
• Liberia Gbarnga (5 mission branches)
  
• Liberia Monrovia (second mission) (3 stakes)
  
• Malawi Lilongwe (2 districts) 
• Mauritius and Reunion (2 districts)
  
• Nigeria Benin City (second mission) (4-5 stakes)
• Nigeria Calabar (4 stakes, 1 district)
• Nigeria Eket (6 stakes)
  
• Nigeria Lagos (second mission) (4 stakes)
• Nigeria Makurdi (3 districts)
  
• Nigeria Warri (3 stakes, 3 districts)
• Senegal Dakar (1 district, several mission branches in neighboring countries)
  
• Sierra Leone Bo (4 stakes, 1 district) 
• Sierra Leone Freetown (second mission) (2-3 stakes, 1 district)
  
• Togo Lome (2 stakes)

ASIA (9 missions)

• Georgia Tbilisi (2 mission branches) 
  
• Korea Daejeon (4 stakes)
  
• Middle East/African North Service Mission (2 stakes, 3 districts) 
• Philippines General Santos (3 stakes, 3 districts)
  
• Philippines Ormoc (3 stakes, 4 districts)
  
• Philippines Palawan/Mindoro (1 stake, 4 districts)
  
• Philippines Tuguegarao (3 stakes, 2 districts) 
• Sri Lanka Colombo (1 district)
  
• Thailand Ubon (1 stake, 1 district)

EUROPE (10 missions)

• Austria Vienna (2 stakes)
  
• Belgium Brussels (2 stakes)
• France Paris (second mission) (3 stakes) 
• France Toulouse (2 stakes)
  
• Germany Düsseldorf (2 stakes) 
• Iceland Reykjavik (4 mission branches)
  
• Ireland Dublin (2 stakes, 1 district) 
• Italy Palermo (1 stake)
  
• Portugal Porto (3 stakes)
• Spain Granada (5 stakes)
  

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (33 missions)

• Argentina Buenos Aires (fifth mission) (5-6 stakes)
  
• Argentina Posadas (2 stakes, 5 districts)
• Argentina Tucumán (4 stakes, 1 district) 
• Belize Belmopan (2 districts)
  
• Bolivia Riberalta (3 districts)
• Bolivia Tarija (4 stakes, 2 districts)
  
• Brazil Juazeiro do Norte (1 stake, 2 districts, 2 mission branches)
  
• Brazil Joinville (5 stakes)
  
• Brazil Manaus (second mission) (5-6 stakes)
• Brazil Novo Hamburgo (6 stakes, 1 district) 
• Brazil Porto Velho (2 stakes)
  
• Brazil São Luís (2 stakes)
• Brazil São Paulo (sixth mission) (4-5 million, ~7 stakes)
• Brazil Sorocaba (5 stakes, 2 districts)
• Chile La Serena (3 stakes, 3 districts) 
• Colombia Bucaramanga (4 stakes)
  
• Cuba Havana (1 district)
• Ecuador Machala (4 stakes, 1 district) 
• Mexico Acapulco (3 stakes, 1 district)
• Mexico Ciudad Obregón (3 stakes, 3 districts)
  
• Mexico Coatzacoalcos (3 stakes, 3 districts)
  
• Mexico Juchitán (3 stakes, 4 districts) 
• Mexico Morelia (4 stakes, 1 district)
  
• Mexico Reynosa (5 stakes, 1 district)
• Mexico San Luis Potosí (3 stakes)
  
• Mexico Tijuana (second mission) (5 stakes)
• Mexico Toluca (3 stakes)
  
• Panama Panama City (second mission) - (3-4 stakes, 1-3 districts)
  
• Peru Lima (seventh mission) (6-7 stakes)
• Peru Pisco (4 stakes, 2 districts)
  
• Peru Pucallpa (2 stakes) 
• Peru Puno (3 stakes)
• Peru Tacna (5 stakes)
  

NORTH AMERICA (16 missions)

• Arizona Scottsdale (~10 stakes)
  
• Canada Toronto (second mission) (4 stakes)
• Colorado Grand Junction (5 stakes)
  
• Connecticut Hartford (5 stakes)
  
• Florida Orland (second mission) (5 stakes)
• Georgia Macon (5 stakes)
• Idaho Nampa (~20 stakes)
  
• Illinois Peoria (4 stakes)
  
• Missouri Springfield (5 stakes) 
• Nevada Las Vegas (3 mission) (10 stakes)
  
• North Carolina Raleigh (second mission) (6-7 stakes)
• Ohio Cleveland (5 stakes)
  
• Oklahoma Tulsa (5 stakes)
• Pennsylvania Harrisburg (6 stakes)
• Texas Longview (5 stakes)
  
• Wyoming Casper (5 stakes)
  

OCEANIA (7 missions)

• Australia Brisbane (second mission) (~6 stakes)
  
• Australia Sydney (second mission) (~6 stakes)
• French Polynesia (second mission) (~5 stakes) 
• Kiribati Tarawa (2 stakes, 3 districts)
  
• Papua New Guinea Daru (1 stake, 3 districts)
  
• Samoa (second mission) (~12 stakes)
  
• Solomon Islands Honiara (1 district)

Young LDS Missionaries Assigned to Senegal for the First Time - Non-African Missionaries Return to Cote d'Ivoire

Within the past couple weeks, the Church assigned young, full-time missionaries to serve in the West African country of Senegal for the first time. Six Black African full-time missionaries from the Cote d'Ivoire Abidjan West Mission were assigned to Senegal. All six missionaries appear to serve in the city of Dakar where the only LDS branch operates in the country. A senior missionary couple has served in Dakar for at least a couple years to provide member and leadership support. This couple has also appeared to conduct humanitarian and development work in Senegal. The Church operated a member group in Dakar for at least 1-2 years before the organization of the Dakar Branch in May 2016 with 24 members. The Church assigned Senegal to a mission, the Cote d'Ivoire Abidjan West Mission, for the first time in late 2016/early 2017. LDS Apostle Elder David A. Bednar dedicated Senegal for missionary work in May 2017 when he met with the approximately two dozen local members in the Dakar Branch. Most members in the Dakar Branch were originally Black Africans from other West African countries. However, native Senegalese have appeared to begin to join the Church in the past 1-2 years. Dakar Branch members primarily speak French and Wolof. It is unclear which mission Senegal will be assigned to when the Cote d'Ivoire Yamoussoukro Mission is organized this July. Ninety-six percent (96%) of the population in Senegal is Muslim, whereas 4% is Christian.

Senegal presents many good opportunities for future LDS growth due to widespread religious freedom, tolerance for Christian proselytism, sizable Christian minority in Dakar and southern areas of the country, and easy accessibility from other West African countries. There are 3.5 million people who live in the Dakar metropolitan area. One other city has at least one million people: Touba (1.0 million). The creation of member groups that assemble in areas distant from the current church meetinghouse appears likely in the next year due to the large geographical size of Dakar and opportunities for future growth.

For more information, refer to this case study (written in February 2014) that provides an analysis of opportunities for growth in Senegal.

Lastly, non-African missionaries from North America have begun to serve in Ivorian missions after approximately 5-6 years. North American missionaries have historically served in Cote d'Ivoire although they were evacuated during the First and Second Ivorian Civil Wars. The first North Americans to serve in Cote d'Ivoire after the Second Ivorian Civil War appeared to begin their service sometime within the past year.

NOTE: This initial post was inaccurate regarding the assignment of full-time missionaries to Senegal in February. The first two young, proselytizing missionaries arrived in early April 2017.

First Full-time Missionaries to Serve from Senegal

Senior missionaries who serve in Accra, Ghana report that the first Senegalese full-time missionaries recently began their training at the new Ghana Missionary Training Center (MTC). Two male missionaries were called at the same time from Senegal and constitute the first known members from Senegal to have ever served a full-time mission. The Church organized its first official branch in Senegal in May 2016. Currently the Dakar Branch pertains to the Cote d'Ivoire Abidjan West Mission. There are four members in the branch presidency and all appear to be native Black African members. No official membership statistics for the Church in Senegal are available. No young, full-time missionaries have ever appeared to have been assigned to serve in Senegal.

Updated Full-Time Missionary Figures

A recent article in the Deseret News reported that the number of full-time missionaries serving has decreased to 75,000. This indicates that the full-time missionary force has decreased by 10,000 (12%) within the past year as Church reported 85,147 missionaries at year-end 2014. Church leaders initially speculated that the full-time missionary force would decrease into the high 70,000s following the end of the double cohort of missionaries that resulted from the reduced age of missionary service. A larger decrease in the number of full-time missionaries than expected suggests that the Church may be struggling with consistently increasing the number of members serving full-time missions despite the reduced age for missionary service. Fewer missionaries serving than expected has also likely delayed the organization of additional missions as plans for only three new missions have announced for 2016. However, this most recent figure of 75,000 full-time missionaries may indicate an end of the double-cohort surge that temporarily raised the number of missionaries serving to approximately 90,000 in late 2014.

Church leaders nonetheless remain optimistic that the number of full-time missionaries serving will increase in the near future. LDS apostle Elder Jeffrey R. Holland speculated in early 2015 that the Church may reach 100,000 full-time missionaries serving by 2019. If correct, this increase would indicate significant growth and progress increasing the percentage of young adults in the international church who serve full-time missions.

As for my prediction, it is my opinion that we will likely see a return to steady increases in the number of full-time missionaries serving comparable to the early 2010s. The Church appears likely to exceed 80,000 missionaries within the next one to two years and 90,000 missionaries by 2021. The Church may focus on greater redistribution of mission resources in the near future from less productive to more productive or recently opened areas of the world, such as in Africa and Asia.

Updated Missionary Numbers

In an article in the Deseret News, the Church reported 68,700 full-time missionaries serving as of May 29th, 2013.  Currently 22,500 members have received their mission calls but have not yet entered the Missionary Training Center (MTC) and an additional 6,200 members are in the process of completing their missionary applications.  Church officials project that the number of full-time missionaries will reach 85,000 this fall; a 47% increase from the approximately 58,000 missionaries serving in October 2012.

For more information about the recent increase in the full-time missionary force for the LDS Church, please refer to the following resources:

• Lowering the Minimum Mission Age: Analysis and Predictions for Growth for the LDS Church
• Analysis of New Missions to be Organized in July 2013
• Raising the Bar and Increasing the Number of Members Serving Missions
• 2012 Annual Statistical Report (blog post)
• April 6th, 2013 Update on the Number of Full-time Missionaries Serving  (blog post)
• March 27th, 2013 Update on the Number of Full-time Missionaries Serving (blog post)
• January 8th, 2013 Update on the Number of Full-time Missionaries Serving (blog post)