2024 Statistical Report: Predictions

This afternoon, the Church will publish its annual statistical report for the year 2024 with figures as of December 31st, 2024. My analysis of the 2023 statistical report can be found here. The following is what I anticipate for these growth metrics:

• Membership: 17,600,000
• Converts Baptized: 300,000
• Increase in Children of Record (i.e., children under age 8, most of whom are infants born and blessed during the previous year): 100,000
• Official Congregations (i.e., wards and branches): 31,700
• Stakes: 3,609
• Districts: 492
• Missions: 450
• Missionaries Serving: 77,000

I anticipate that convert baptisms in 2024 will reach a 25-year high, based on reports indicating approximately 300,000 convert baptisms during the year. I also expect the number of children of record to be slightly higher than in 2023—potentially surpassing 100,000 for the first time since 2018.

The number of proselytizing missionaries may have reached as high as 77,000 by the end of the year. However, this figure could be inflated, as it is unclear whether some reports from Church leaders included young service missionaries.

Notably, the number of districts appears to have experienced a slight net increase in 2024. If confirmed, this would mark the first such increase since 2008. The Church organized a near-record number of new districts in 2024, largely driven by expansion in lesser-reached areas of Sub-Saharan Africa.

2020 Statistical Report: Predictions

The year 2020 was definitely an anomaly year in regards to the growth of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Tens of thousands of full-time missionaries were released or temporarily reassigned due to the COVID-19 pandemic. There were several months during the year when there were extremely few new congregations being organized or discontinued. Furthermore, there was a five-month hiatus in new stake creations from March until August. Children of record totals are likely much lower than usual due to many members delaying infant blessings as a result of COVID-19 restrictions which resulted in fewer children added to Church records. Moreover, the number of convert baptisms dramatically decreased in many of the historically highest baptizing missions for at least several months during the year. However, there are many reports that the number of convert baptisms surpassed the number of convert baptisms for at least some months of the year, including in some lower-baptizing mission in Europe as well as historically high baptizing mission in Latin America. Thus, it is very difficult to predict what convert baptism totals were for 2020 given these changes from the status quo for convert baptism rates. It is like some of these metrics will see a noticeable temporary bump in 2021 as conditions begin to normalize in many of the countries where the Church operates, such as with children of record increase and the number of members serving full-time missions. One metric that appears to have noticeably improved in 2020 compared to prior years is the number of individuals meeting with missionaries and lessons taught by missionaries given major changes in online proselytism and remote teaching. However, this is not an official statistic published by the Church.

See below for my predictions for the 2020 Annual Statistical Report:

• Membership: 16.75 million (increase of approximately 200,00 from 2019; a 1.21% annual increase)
• Congregations: 31,140 (increase of 200 from 2019; a 0.65% annual increase)
• Stakes: 3,464 (increase of 27 from 2019; a 0.79% annual increase)
• Districts: 537 (decrease of 5 from 2019; a 0.92% annual decrease)
• Missions: 406 (increase of 7 from 2019; a 1.75% annual increase)
• Convert Baptisms: 200,000 (decrease of 48,835 from 2019; a 19.6% annual decrease)
• Increase of Children on Record: 60,000 (decrease of 34,266 from 2019; a 36.4% annual decrease)
• Full-time missionaries: 54,000 (decrease of 13,021 from 2019; a 19.4% annual decrease)
• Church service missionaries: 25,000 (decrease of 6,333 from 2019; a 20.2% annual decrease)

Your insights and predictions are welcomed and encouraged. They may take a few hours or up to a day to show up below the post. I approve comments due to recent concerns with spam comments.