Click here to access our August 2021 monthly newsletter for cumorah.com. Things have been slow the past couple months for Church growth developments, so I do not have much to report in the monthly newsletter.
Click here to access our August 2021 monthly newsletter for cumorah.com. Things have been slow the past couple months for Church growth developments, so I do not have much to report in the monthly newsletter.
20 comments:
Hi Matt, with conference drawing nearer if you have the time would you mind dropping a comment to let us know if you plan to create a post dedicated to temple announcement predictions or if we should just start posting our predictions and discussions in the comments here? Thanks for your work on this excellent blog.
Yes, I will be making a post probably this weekend about my temple announcement predictions.
The churh sometimes guys land for temples, often years in advance. Article from almost five years ago reported that an "nonprofit" investment arm of the church bought about 5.3 acres in Maui. That's is a good size for a small temple or a Meetinghouse.
https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/news/2016/10/19/mormon-churchs-company-buys-property.html
So it could be possible for a temple on the island of Maui. There are two stakes on the island, but that would leave the Kona Hawaii temple with just two stakes. However it is a small temple and other temples have only one or two so stakes.
Matt, thanks for sharing the latest newsletter. It has been interesting to see how the Church is adapting to ever-changing circumstances as a result of COVID-19. I was particularly gratified to hear about the official creation of the Mozambique Beira Mission. I will be very interested to hear your thoughts about the most likely temple announcements whenever that post is available. I will probably reiterate this once your predictions are released, but I have finished revising my predictions for the October 2021 General Conference, and those have been shared on my blog, with the open commenting period on those remaining in effect until Thursday September 30 @ 10:00 PM. Anyone interested in reading those predictions (and providing any feedback) are more than welcome to weigh in at the following web address:
https://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com/2021/08/updated-predictions-for-october-2021.html
For the first time this go-round, I have also specifically identified 24 locations in which a temple appears likely to be announced next month in General Conference. Anyone on the internet who has the following link can view the document in question, with the 24 specific locations noted at the bottom of that document:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1AHEJOqAjEJDN7aXQLlfrkzc2yTVer6E0TRR5eYdNKB8/edit?usp=sharing
Additionally, given the many temple groundbreakings which have been announced in recent weeks, I decided to run a side-by-side comparison of groundbreakings held last year vs. those that have taken place or are scheduled to occur so far this year. In some cases, where the temple name is too long, I have used an appropriate abbreviation to identify those temple. Here is a link to that document:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SgpsCbhL0hRHAlnii3tjw6O-gxPk2rt0_jD50JYC4ck/edit?usp=sharing
As that document shows, with two groundbreakings set to occur the Saturday following the October 2021 General Conference, the number of groundbreakings done by the Church on that date will be as many as had occurred by November 4 of last year. That gives me hope that we might see additional groundbreakings announced prior to the next General Conference that will take place throughout the remainder of October and into November and December, and I would not be shocked at all if the Church breaks ground for more than 21 temples this year.
With that and the modular temple designs and the precast concrete wall panels in use on so many temples, which will help speed up the construction process quite a fair bit, I don't think it's out of the question to assume that another double-digit number of new temples will be announced. What is less clear is if that number will be less or more than the 20 temples announced last April. Hope this information is helpful to all of you who might read it.
@L. Chris Jones,
Looks like the church just bought a hotel in Maui:
https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/news/2021/06/15/residence-inn-marriott-maui-sells-100m-mormon.html
For your Mexico prediction I would have guessed Culiacan over Durango. Durango is still relatively close to Torreon and would be included in a Torreon temple district. If we are prioritizing distance I would say Culiacan as it is 12 hours from Hermosillo and slightly longer back to Guadalajara. I wouldn't sleep on Cancún either as it is relatively far from Mérida and there would be five stakes very close plus another couple stakes in East Yucatan and one in Chetumal on the border with Belize.
Pachuca might be an option medium term as could Durango or Chihuahua City. Xalapa might happen in the longer term.
I saw that story from this year as well. However, I am curious about the story from 2016. The story said it was a nonprofit arm are rather than one of the for profit business arms of the church.
Bryan, you were the one who previously mentioned that the next Mexico temples were likely to go to Queretaro, Torreon, or Durango. I had no considered the fact that the announcement of the temple in Torreon would eliminate the immediate need for a temple in Durango. As a general note, President Nelson appears to be using some alternating methods in his temple announcements. Fox Mexico, after the Puebla temple was announced in October 2018, the next temples in Mexico were not announced until the April 2021 General Conference. Based on that fact, while I did have Durango listed under the Mexico Area for this General Conference, my personal feeling is that the Church might hold off on announcing another new temple in Mexico until the two in Queretaro and Torreon are further along. That being said, I will take your comments about Culiacan under advisement. And by way of a general note to all who are looking over the documents I shared in my last comment on this thread, since I don't currently need to moderate comments on my blog, any comments left there will appear directly after they are submitted, so commenting on my predictions on the threads of my blog will be easier to do than submitting comments here about them and waiting for them to be moderated and published in these threads. In the meantime, thanks for those comments, Bryan. I will definitely give your feedback some consideration.
I think 24 new temples is quite a stretch, but I'm assuming 20 new temples will be announced.
Of the ones you picked, here the new temples I think are likely to be announced:
Antananarivo Madagascar
Monrovia Liberia
Jakarta Indonesia
Ulaanbaatar Mongolia
Ribeirão Preto Brazil (Joao Pessoa is just too close to Recife, Florianopolis, possible)
Edinburgh Scotland
Wichita Kansas
Queen Creek Arizona
Fairbanks Alaska
Bakersfield California
Philippines Angeles
Iquitos Peru
La Paz Bolivia
And here are another 7 temples I think are likely:
Charlotte North Carolina
El Paso Texas
Modesto/Stockton California
Valparaiso/Vina Del Mar Chile
Marshall Islands
Jacksonville Florida
Austin Texas
Anything can happen though as we've seen from last conference.
Hi Matt, have you done any analysis on the number of meetinghouses the church runs via their meetinghouse locator? Seems like you could scrape some of the data off that site.
Many French speaking African nations have huge potential for growth, the first two being Congo and Cote d’Ivoire. Benin and Togo show good potential, more so than the further northern states where religiously based terrorists make proselytism harder, or impossible. The Mediterranean countries are pretty shut down for Gospel interface, but Sebta (Ceuta) and Egypt have minor presences of membership.
Cameroon and Congo-Brazzaville show a bit of promise.
After English speaking Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone, more western, the English speaking southern nations are slowly progressing.
East Africa is mostly Kenya, but Uganda does well, too.
Madagascar, despite development issues, has huge potential.
I have met a member this summer from C.A.R. Slow growth there.
3 of the 5 Portuguese countries are growing well. Angola and Mozambique should get temples in the next five years. Huge countries.
The Arabic speaking nations are the slowest growth areas, while Ethiopia has severe problems for growth. Tigray is a no go for now.
Recently organized and updated on Classic Maps, "Port Harcourt Nigeria Central Stake - 2181231".
https://classic.churchofjesuschrist.org/maps/#ll=4.832641,7.038331&z=14&m=google.hybrid&layers=stakecenter&q=Port%20Harcourt%20Nigeria%20Central%20Stake&find=stake:2181231
20 Sep 11, 2021 Port Harcourt Nigeria Central Stake
When the Papeete Tahiti Temple was announced it covered 1 stake. By the time it was built it had 2.
I am not sure that Winnipeg and Regina Temples combined have 4 stakes.
So Maui is believable. On the other hand there are temples on land the Xhurch bought over 40 years before they were announced.
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints at times takes a long view in purchases.
On the other other hand at least 2 temples maybe more have been moved from their initial site, and Paris also took as long from when President Hinckley first mentioned it because the first planned site proved unworkable. Tegucigalpa had a 2nd groundbreaking and Philadelphia was the second site chosen in the city.
Mozambique had a temple announced for Beira. Maputo is on my short list though. In Angola the big question is how hard is it to get to DR Congo. The 1 or 2 stakes in Angola are relatively close to Kunshasa, although the distances may he great.
Daloa is on my short list for a temple. So is Abuja.
If Port Harcourt was not so close to Aba it would be a top contender to get a temple.
Can you find out of the Mexico Monterrey Libertad Stake has been discontinued? It doesn't show up in the meetinghouse finder anymore. The Monterrey East Mission is still located at the address.
Philadelphia had the issue of the first site on Broad Street being found to have had contaminants dumped on the property or a previous owner doing either the same or not properly disposing of hazardous waste, that is why they had to find the site eventually built on.
Part of my point of the African growth commentary was that French speaking Rwanda and Burundi look like fertile ground for the Gospel to grow.
Side note, a good family friend was just called to a Côte d’Ivoire mission, need to find out which one. He is the second eldest of nine kids. His dad served in Argentina and his mother in southern California.
I am betting he will teach thousands. En francé.
There are 61 ethnic groups there, too, maybe he will learn a bit of those local languages.
In Southern California, Anaheim East California Stake has been renamed the Yorba Linda California Stake (due to the new Yorba Linda Temple being in the stake).
And, Chula Vista California Stake has been renamed the San Diego South California Stake (due to recent stake realignment and consolidation of other San Diego area stakes).
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