Sunday, March 21, 2021

New Temple Predictions - March 2021 Edition

I have updated my temple prediction map in preparation for General Conference in April. Data used to identify probable locations for future temples include the size of the Church in a specific geographical area (i.e. number of stakes and districts, the number of wards and branches), the age of the oldest stake in a specific geographical area, church growth trends, distance to the nearest temple, the historical number of endowment sessions scheduled at the nearest temple, and member and missionary reports regarding member activity, temple attendance, and convert retention. In September 2019, I divided prospective temple sites into more likely and less likely categories. This change appeared warranted given recent trends of temple announcements in remote areas of the world with few relatively Latter-day Saints, such as Tallahassee, Florida; Cobán, Guatemala; Budapest, Hungary; and Okinawa, Japan, that appear less likely to receive temple announcements given historical trends. Altogether, there are 156 potential temples on the map (40 more like temples, 116 less likely temples).

Locations added to the temple prediction map in March 2021 include:

    • Buenos Aires North, Argentina (less likely)
    • Canberra, Australia (less likely) 
    • Chiclayo, Peru (less likely) 
    • Chimbote, Peru (less likely)
    • Farmington, Utah (less likely)
    • Fort Worth, Texas (less likely)
    • Fortaleza South, Brazil (less likely)
    • Ha'apai, Tonga (less likely)
    • Jacksonville, Florida (less likely)
    • Kimbanseke, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (less likely) 
    • Las Vegas, Nevada (2nd temple) (less likely) 
    • Lehi, Utah (less likely)
    • Lima South, Peru (less likely)
    • Lower Hutt, New Zealand (less likely) 
    • Mexico City, Mexico (2nd temple) (less likely)
    • Milan, Italy (less likely) 
    • Morelia, Mexico (less likely)
    • Nuku'alofa City or Malapo, Tonga (less likely)
    • Palmas, Brazil (less likely)
    • Queen Creek, Arizona (less likely)
    • San Pablo City, Philippines (less likely)
    • Santa Ana, El Salvador (less likely)
    • Santiago South, Chile (less likely) 
    • Savannah, Georgia (less likely)
    • Sioux Falls, South Dakota (less likely)
    • Smithfield or North Logan, Utah (more likely)
    • Toulouse, France (less likely)
    • Victoria, British Columbia, Canada (less likely)
    • Yopougon, Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire (less likely)

    The following prospective temple was transferred from the less likely category to the more likely category:

    • Austin, Texas

    The following 10 locations appear most likely to have temples announced this coming General Conference. You are welcome to provide your top 10 picks for temple announcements in the comments below.

    1. Monrovia, Liberia 
    2. Smithfield or North Logan, Utah
    3. Angeles or Olongapo, Philippines
    4. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 
    5. Missoula, Montana
    6. Colorado Springs, Colorado 
    7. La Paz, Bolivia
    8. Charlotte, North Carolina
    9. Mbuji-Mayi, Democratic Republic of the Congo
    10. Austin, Texas

    See below for the map of likely and less likely new temple sites:

    189 comments:

    Ben H said...

    I think that the Mexico City MTC has more than enough space for a temple. My guesses:

    Tacoma, Washington
    Missoula, Montana
    Mexico City (MTC)
    Austin, Texas
    Charlotte, NC
    Edinburgh, Scotland
    Maracaibo, Venezuela
    Belo Horizonte, Brazil
    Uyo, Nigeria
    Mbjui-Mayi, DRC
    Jakarta, Indonesia
    Olangapo, Philipines

    In addition, 2nd baptistry will be added to Ogden and Jordan River before they re-open for full operations. Plus Logan, Provo, Seattle and Spokane temples will close for remodeling. Spokane's capacity will be doubled.

    Cory said...

    As usual, I have my version of a "temple bracket." I think there a few others who have made theirs in the past.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1em3sQ4aYJlivd9YgE7UUQ-ybnAB1Avuh/view?usp=sharing

    Every conference I heavily discount the prospects of an additional Utah Temple. Nevertheless, every time President Nelson has announced temples, there's been at least one in Utah. In addition to the ones on the map, I've thought about Pleasant View/North Ogden. That temple might be able to hold down 15 stakes.

    I've also thought about the east valley in Salt Lake. With the Taylorsville Temple being so close to I-215, those in the east valley who live near I-215, will likely find it easier to go to Taylorsville instead of Salt Lake or Draper. In my count, the Taylorsville temple could have as many as 60 stakes assigned if driving distance is the deciding factor. I think a potential temple could be located in Cottonwood Heights. From my count, it could take 25 stakes from Holladay to Northern Sandy. Like the Taylorsville Temple, it could occupy the property of a current meetinghouse, since most of the land is developed. I think the leading contender would be a meetinghouse in Cottonwood Heights. There is one with a large baseball field along Wasatch Boulevard. Its a highpoint for the valley near Big Cottonwood Canyon. Furthermore, the building caught fire in 2019. The meetinghouse only housed one ward. The meetinghouse has been taken off the meetinghouse locator and the ward assigned to a nearby meetinghouse that also only housed one ward. I am unaware if it is being restored, nevertheless it could be an ideal location. The capacity increase at the Salt Lake Temple leaves more more uncertain about this prediction. However, I think this temple would take more stakes away from Taylorsville, Jordan River, and Draper. The Salt Lake temple could be left with 30 stakes.

    https://kutv.com/news/local/crews-extinguish-lds-church-fire-in-cottonwood-heights

    Here are my Top 10: (not in order)

    Cache Valley #2
    Charlotte NC
    Las Vegas #2
    Austin TX
    Belo Horizonte Brazil
    Iquitos Peru
    Punta Arenas Chile
    Antananarivo Madagascar
    Cape Coast Ghana
    Ulaanbaatar Mongolia

    Cliff said...

    Great work as always in putting this list together. Thank you.

    L. Chris Jones said...

    With some trends in Utah of new temples being in the end of a current current district rather than the middle (Saratoga Springs rather than Lehi or Payson rather than Spanish Fork for my previous predictions). Could Preston Idaho be announced instead of Smithfield Utah?

    Eduardo said...

    10 announced would be super cool. No West Virginia or Wisconsin yet?

    LDSTempleQueenIvy2005 said...
    This comment has been removed by the author.
    LDSTempleQueenIvy2005 said...

    Berlin Germany (less likely)

    LDSTempleQueenIvy2005 said...

    Berlin Germany (less likely)
    Myrtle Beach South Carolina where i live (less likely)

    Eric S. said...

    In no particular order:

    -Mexico (Querétaro, Torreón or Durango)
    -Peru (Iquitos, Chiclayo or Piura)
    -Punta Arenas Chile
    -Antananarivo Madagascar
    -Kumasi Ghana
    -Oslo Norway
    -Ulaanbaatar Mongolia
    -Singapore
    -Utah (Smithfield/North Logan, Herriman or Heber City)
    -US (1 or 2 of either Missoula MT, Colorado Springs CO, Austin TX or Charlotte NC)

    Bonus guesses: -Update on pioneer era renovations (more specific time frame for Manti and/or Logan)
    -Possible announcement or hint of more renovations in coming years
    -City announced for Russia Temple

    Michael Worley said...

    Prauge, Czechia Temple
    Princeton or Newark, NJ Temple
    Richfield or Filmore, UT Temple


    And more. But I thought I'd throw out some dark horses.

    Eric S. said...

    Just for fun, here are some "surprise" candidates that I have mulled over from time to time. Some of these I have included in my top picks in the past and many are on the "less likely" list. These are potentially some that I could see announced in the next several years.

    Fairbanks Alaska (1, soon to be 2, stakes)
    Victoria British Columbia (2 stakes)
    Modesto California (~6-7 stakes)
    Elko Nevada (3-4 stakes)
    Preston Idaho (~8 stakes)
    Delta Utah (3-4 stakes)
    Casper or Northern Wyoming (Cody? Lovell?) (~5-8 stakes)
    San Luis Valley (Alamosa) Colorado (2 stakes)
    Rapid City South Dakota (2 stakes)
    Wichita Kansas (4 stakes)
    El Paso Texas (4 stakes, 1 district)
    Tampa Florida (6-8 stakes)
    Madison or Milwaukee Wisconsin (6 stakes)
    Newark (or somewhere in northern) New Jersey (5 stakes)
    Augusta Maine (2 stakes)
    Cancún Mexico (~6 stakes, 2 districts)
    Kingston Jamaica (1 stake, 1 district)
    Port of Spain Trinidad (1 stake, 4 districts)
    Cusco Peru (~3-4 stakes, 4 districts)
    Abuja Nigeria (3 stakes, 1 district)
    Las Palmas Spain (1 stake, 2 districts)
    Barcelona Spain (~4 stakes, 1 district)
    Dublin Ireland (2 stakes, 1 district)
    Hamburg Germany (2 stakes)
    Canberra Australia (2 stakes)
    Taichung Taiwan (~8 stakes)
    Savaii Samoa (6 stakes)

    James said...

    I've put together a rather massive list:

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xm29EG7e-AeVOSjvdi5RgIEQa21sJrx_L1JAbhUjDPE/edit?usp=sharing

    To avoid clogging up the comments here with dialogue about my list, anyone interested in dialoguing about that further can do so in the threads of the following blog post:

    https://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com/2021/03/updated-april-2021-general-conference.html

    My thanks once again to you all.

    JC said...

    Are many temples needed in Utah? Are they currently overcapacity?

    Historia Familiar Valenzuela Escobar said...

    The announcements of the temples is what I look forward to the most in the conferences, I like to dream that in Chile there will be more temples, regardless of whether I know that the parameters that the Church or you take are different.

    Although there are a little more than 600,000 baptized in Chile, the percentage that participates and works in the Church is rather low, I hope the day will come when there are temples in Viña del Mar, Osorno, Puerto Montt, Punta arenas and other places in the world. country, since there are very long distances.

    It seems that by having temples closer, the baptized attend more frequently, and that in a way is so.
    The temple goes hand in hand with personal family history, what to do, it hurts that family history centers work terrible, that slows down finding ancestors, and thus bring new names to the temple

    Geoff said...

    @Eduardo - I think a West Virginia temple is even less likely now that Pittsburgh is a go. West Virginia just might be one of those places split between a bunch of other temple districts.

    Fingers crossed for Mongolia this time around. I've been calling it for years.

    I think Smithfield or Preston is even more likely in light of how much has been going on in Utah, especially since Logan is still slammed, and even more so since Logan seems increasingly likely to get gutted again.

    Logan H said...

    • Rosario/ Santa Fe, Argentina (In thought of Buenos Aires having a second Temple)
    • Ulaanbaalar, Mongolia
    • Missoula, Montana
    • La Paz, Bolivia
    • Maracaibo, Venezuela
    • Colorado Springs, Colorado
    • Monrovia, Liberia
    • Mbuji Mayi/ Kananga, DRC
    • Austin, TX/ Charlotte, NC
    • Osaka, Japan
    • Santiago, Philippines
    • Smithfield, Utah (More likely if the Logan Temple is renovated. I could also see Price or Heber City, but less likely.)

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    Here's a mix of my predictions/wishlist:

    Utah:
    Springville, Herriman, Heber City, Cache County 2nd, Pleasant View/North Ogden

    US:
    Missoula MT, Rapid City SD or a new one in Colorado

    Mexico/South America:
    Somewhere in Northern Mexico, Iquitos Peru, La Paz Bolivia, Belo Horizonte Brazil, Somewhere in Southern tip of Chile or Argentina

    Asia:
    Mongolia, Singapore, & somewhere(s) in the Philippines

    Africa:
    Liberia, Kumasi Ghana, Madagascar, Uganda

    Europe:
    Vienna, Oslo

    Looking forward to crossing a few off the wishlist again this time!

    EP said...

    One of my favorite games I am always happy to lose. Here's where I'm at for the 10 I'd like to see announced this conference, along with the approximate square footage of the temple and any additional relevant details:

    April 2021
    Austin, TX 25k (continued growth plus load on San Antonio makes me think here before El Paso, but El Paso wouldn't shock me either)
    Torreón, Mexico 25k (lots of good choices in Mexico, I'm thinking here but any of Torreón/Querétaro/Pachuca/Cuautla/Ciudad de Mexico #2 wouldn't surprise me)
    Legaspi, Philippines 17k
    Osaka, Japan 25k
    Monrovia, Liberia 17k
    Kananga/Mbuji-Mayi, DR Congo 17k
    Belo Horizonte, Brazil 25k
    Missoula, MT 25k
    Cape Coast, Ghana 17k
    Preston, ID/Smithfield/Richmond, UT 70-100k (the dreamer in me says Preston for another Idaho temple as well as to shorten the drive for some of the outlying Idaho stakes for winter, but Smithfield probably makes more sense. I expect this temple to be a big one to take some load off of Logan, which I also expect to have a second baptistry announced for during the renovation)

    I've got estimates way out for the next several years, many are on the lists you all have.

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @Ben H

    I'm hopeful for a Spokane remodel, also. That was my old temple.

    Brett Stirling said...

    I would add the following to less likely:

    - Christchurch, New Zealand
    - Southern Brisbane, Australia
    - Western Melbourne, Australia
    - Tasmania, Australia
    - Rarotonga, Cook Islands

    Bryan Dorman said...

    I'll play along:

    1. Random spot in UT US (Hunch being Heber City)
    2. Torreón MX (due to concentration of stakes in Torreón)
    3. La Paz BO (due to concentration of stakes in La Paz)
    4. Belo Horizonte MG BR (next likely spot in Brazil).
    5. Austin TX US
    6. PH temple (not sure where)
    7. Monrovia LR
    8. Ullanbattar MN
    9. Jackson MS US
    10. Missoula MT US

    What the...

    1. Singapore SG
    2. Guangzhou CN
    3. Russian temple named as Saratov RU or Moscow RU.
    4. Yerevan AM
    5. Kampala UG

    Gator said...

    I think Richfield, Utah has a decently high likely hood.
    Manti is closing for the next 5 years and that leaves a gap from
    Payson to Cedar Cedar without a temple ( thats ALOT of active temple goers )
    Not to mention Cedar is already at capacity with St George being closed.

    David Todd said...

    With all of the growth happening lately in Mozambique, how long do you think it will be before Portuguese Africa gets their own temple?

    Mozambique is split into two strong centers that are far apart and Durban is pretty close to Maputo. Beira is fairly close to Harare, but makes sense as a central location in the country with growth happening in Nampula and Chimoio.

    I'd guess at the current rate 5-10 years? How long was the shortest time between the first stake in a city and a temple again?

    Ben H said...

    @Corey,

    I used to live in the Ogden area. It is a matter of time before another temple is in Weber County. Ogden is a high capacity temple. It seems like the church has been building new temples on the fringes of the district first, such as Syracuse and Brigham City. Evanston will help with the stakes that are in Wyoming. The western part of Weber County is where the growth is at the moment, Hooper, West Haven, etc. Therefore, I think the 2nd temple in Weber County would be in Hooper, West Haven, Marriott-Slaterville, Taylor or West Weber.

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @JC

    It depends on the temple. Ogden is one of the busiest and was reaching or exceeding capacity for Ordinances before the pandemic. The Provo Temples were usually very busy, also. I'll let those from the other areas in Utah report on their respective temples.

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @Cory

    Thanks for posting the temple bracket!

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @Ben H

    I won't complain if they announce a temple for West Haven. :)

    Pascal Friedmann said...

    Of the 100 small temples list I proposed two conferences ago, around 90 remain:

    North America

    Fairbanks, Alaska
    Lethbridge, Alberta
    Victoria, British Columbia
    La Grande, Oregon
    Bakersfield, California
    San Luis Obispo, California
    Elko, Nevada
    Farmington, New Mexico
    Morgan, Utah
    Price, Utah
    Nephi, Utah
    Heber, Utah
    Grand Junction, Colorado
    Pueblo, Colorado
    Preston, Idaho
    Casper, Wyoming
    Rock Springs, Wyoming
    Rapid City, South Dakota
    Helena, Montana
    Des Moines, Iowa
    Champaign, Illinois
    Wichita, Kansas
    Green Bay, Wisconsin
    Austin, Texas
    Amarillo, Texas
    El Paso, Texas
    Hattiesburg, Mississippi
    Knoxville, Tennessee
    Charleston, West Virginia
    Buena Vista, Virginia
    Grand Rapids, Michigan
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Burlington, Vermont
    Augusta, Maine

    Latin America

    La Paz, Mexico
    Mexico City 2nd, Mexico
    Campeche, Mexico
    Kingston, Jamaica
    Guadeloupe
    Port-of-Spain, Trinidad & Tobago
    David, Panama
    Cali, Colombia
    Santo Domingo, Ecuador
    Tarija, Bolivia
    Salvador, Brazil
    Cuiabá, Brazil
    Rio Blanco, Brazil
    Cusco, Peru
    Ushuaia, Argentina

    Europe

    Dublin, Ireland
    Edinburgh, Scotland
    Oslo, Norway
    Hamburg, Germany
    Vienna, Austria
    Malaga, Spain
    Las Palmas, Spain
    Acores, Portugal
    Toulouse, France
    Vilnius, Lithuania
    Tirana, Albania

    Asia

    New Delhi, India
    Hyderabad, India
    Rajahmundry, India
    Ulan Bator, Mongolia
    Singapore
    Taichung, Taiwan
    Jakarta, Indonesia
    Yerevan, Armenia
    Cagayan de Oro, Philippines
    Laoag, Philippines
    Cabanatuan, Philippines
    Naga, Philippines
    Iloilo, Philippines

    Africa

    Cape Town, South Africa
    Gaborone, Botswana
    Maputo, Mozambique
    Antananarivo, Madagascar
    Lusaka, Zambia
    Luanda, Angola
    Brazzaville, Republic of Congo
    Mbuyi-Mayi, Democratic Republic of Congo
    Port Harcourt, Nigeria
    Abuja, Nigeria
    Lome, Togo
    Kumasi, Ghana
    Takoradi, Ghana
    Yamoussoukro, Cote d’Ivoire
    Monrovia, Liberia

    Oceania

    Christchurch, New Zealand
    Ipswich, Australia
    Majuro, Marshall Islands
    Noumea, New Caledonia

    Unknown said...

    I served my mission in Mexico City and my wife is from there. Mexico City was due for a second temple over a decade ago. Only issue is that their retention rates are terrible and their temple attendance worse. I don't see them getting one anytime soon

    Christopher Duerig said...

    Confirmed today on Classic Maps site, the new "Imus Philippines Stake - 2174359", organized from the Bacoor Philippines Stake. Just west of the site of the construction of the new Alabang Philippines Temple.

    https://classic.churchofjesuschrist.org/maps/#ll=14.39292,120.963717&z=12&m=google.hybrid&layers=stakecenter&q=2174359&find=stake:2174359

    Christopher Duerig said...

    Also confirmed on Classic Maps site, the "Pocatello Idaho YSA 2nd Stake - 528269", originally organized on May 3rd, 1998, has been consolidated with the "Pocatello Idaho YSA 1st Stake - 504440". And the combined stake has been renamed "Pocatello Idaho YSA Stake - 504440".

    https://classic.churchofjesuschrist.org/maps/#ll=42.741553,-112.534585&z=9&m=google.hybrid&layers=stakecenter&q=Pocatello%20Idaho%20YSA&find=stake.ysa:504440

    Searchthetruth said...

    Dark Horses:


    Richfield, UT or Heber City, UT
    Preston, ID (more likely) or Montpelier, ID (less likely)

    I think Preston is more likely than Smithfield or North Logan this time around. However when the church renovates Logan there will most likely be announcement in Preston or Smithfield. They seem to do this to utilize resources that are already in place.

    Other Predictions:
    Evanston, WY
    Colorado Springs, CO
    Missoula, MT
    Liberia
    Mongolia
    Mexico City (MTC)
    Cottonwood Heights, UT
    Austin, TX
    Mbuji-Mayi, Democratic Republic of the Congo

    Renovation announcement predictions within the next year: Provo Temple being changed completely to up capacity, eliminating cafeteria and putting in two baptistries. (I’m also jumping on that bandwagon) haha. Changing appearance will be difficult for some but it’s about hastening and the urgency of the work.

    I think Logan will also have its renovation announcement within one year. My Prediction is they will build pretty big annex and try to double its capacity just like Salt Lake. Two baptistries will also be in put in Logan at renovation.

    During a very expensive renovation if they can double capacity at a renovation instead of building a second temple in a nearby location they can save $$$ and they can put that money for a temple in another location.

    Bob Kerns said...

    Far West and/or Adam-ondi-Ahman?

    Jim Anderson said...

    The idea of two baptistries in Provo figures into a story that went around soon after the Provo City Center Temple was announced.

    The story has it that they did consider putting in a second baptistry, even drew up plans, etc., and sent them off to the Presiding Bishopric.

    On a Tuesday in December 2010 they got a response, the Presiding Bishopric said no. Three days later the provo Tabernacle burned.

    I do not know the truth of this, behind the present baptistry is some of the bigger mechanical stuff, so it would have had to go somewhere else displacing something else, who knows what.

    As it is, Provo, about every year, has a six-week summer closure. They get a lot done during those closures. Have been doing it since 2000, ranging from a new mural in the chapel to replacing chandeliers and ordinance room floor hall lights, the first time they removed the escalators. Gold-leaf highlights were added in many areas over a few years also, furniture and other things got refreshed, saw the restrooms remodeled another time.

    EP said...
    This comment has been removed by the author.
    James said...

    Interesting to hear everyone's thoughts that have been added since I last weighed in. Pascal, unless the official Church sites are incorrect, a temple for Salvador Brazil was actually announced in October 2018:

    https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/temples-announced-october-2018-general-conference

    I fully anticipate that, over the next several General Conferences, a number of locations on quite a few lists will be announced. I appreciate Matt giving us the opportunity to share and discuss our lists with one another.

    L. Chris Jones said...

    How close is Darwin Australia to being a stake? Maybe a temple announcement. After all the Kiev Ukraine temple was announced before there was a stake in that country/temple district. I'm no sure but I think that also happened in New Zealand. Has this happened at other times?

    L. Chris Jones said...

    One issue of doubling capacity of some temples may be available space for additional parking. But this can be taken care of by adding underground parking levels. Another concern may be increased traffic. but this is usually resolved with spreading the sessions throughout the day.

    L. Chris Jones said...

    Dark horse prediction: Small temple for Moore, Idaho. This is somewhat a central Idaho location that can include about three plus stakes (Carey stake from the Twin Falls district, and Salmon and Moore stakes from the Idaho Falls Temple) Plus parts of other wards and stakes that may be closer (i.e. Atomic Cityis part of the Moreland 3rd ward Blackfoot NW Stake is closer to Moore than Idaho Falls or Pocatello when it is completed).

    L. Chris Jones said...

    One issue of doubling capacity of some temples may be available space for additional parking. But this can be taken care of by adding underground parking levels. Another concern may be increased traffic. but this is usually resolved with spreading the sessions throughout the day.

    Matt said...

    Sidenote... The new North Pole Alaska Stake will be organized this Sunday, March 28. Split from the Fairbanks Alaska Stake.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    I can get behind the top 10 list, but I really hope that Kampala, Uganda gets a temple announced.

    I also really think a second temple somewhere in the south-south area of Nigeria and one for Abuja are needed, but I am not sure if they will be announced. Since Mexico at one point had 11 temples announced with only one operating, or maybe 10 with 2, Nigeria having more temples announced at this point is not unreasonable. Clearly the Aba Temple is not big enough to support all the stakes in the south-south of Nigeria. It is very hard to figure where best to get a new temple.

    I am also rooting for both Chiclayo and Iquitos in Peru. I also wonder if even two temples are enough though for Lima. We will see.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    I think Singapore is a very big candidate. I would be a little more confident if Malaysia had gotten a stake, or the Singapore stake had split. However There are 3 temples announced which may only cover 1 stake, Vanuatu, Okinawa and Winnipeg. So Singapore is not out of the question, and in that case we may need to build the temple before Malaysia can progress to having a stake.

    Laie, London, Hamilton, New Zealand and Bern, Swtizerland temples also all predate any stakes, and the same issues of super isolation plague the church in Singapore, but there we actually have a stake that has existed for roughly 25 years so a stronger argument to go forward with a temple.

    Also when President Nelson was in Singapore he expressed the hope there would one day be a temple there.

    It might not be this conference, but I expect Singapore to be soon.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    Utah has the most stakes per temple of any area, if you count announced temples. Only Africa West is every close. To be fair since not all temples are the same size, this is not a very meaningful measure. However it is one of the factors in Utah regularly getting new temples announced.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    I can see Preston, Idaho getting a temple. However I do not think it would long term solve the issue of needing a second temple in Cache County, Utah, but it might put it off a little. My grandmother grew up in Whitney, but I still do not know the area super well. Would it make sense to assign some Utah stakes to a Preston Temple? How many stakes would Preston likely get overall?

    Captain Jack Sparrow Lives said...

    I love it.

    I am a global economist and international attorney. I have a passion for trying to use statistical models to predict where the next LDS Temples will likely be announced. There are a lot of factors that go into this analysis and no one factor is determinative. We have dialogued before in the past and I am glad to see you incorporating some of my own location thoughts from the past into your predictions, or maybe great minds just think alike. ;)

    Here are my new Top 10:

    1. North Logan/Smithfield, Utah
    2. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
    3. Colorado Springs, Colorado
    4. Kaohsiung/Taichung, Taiwan
    5. Belo Horizonte, Brazil
    6. Mbuji Mayi/Kananga, DRC
    7. Valparaiso/Vina Del Mar, Chile
    8. Monrovia, Liberia
    9. Singapore
    10. New Delhi, India

    Top 20:

    11. Pleasant View, Utah
    12. Austin, Texas
    13. Kumasi, Ghana
    14. Jacksonville, Florida
    15. La Paz, Bolivia
    16. Antananarivo, Madagascar
    17. Angeles, Philippines
    18. Jakarta, Indonesia
    19. Missoula, Montana
    20. Charlotte, North Carolina

    It is harder to predict second temple locations where temples already exist, but the following are likely high priorities (easily top 10):

    1. Mexico City, Mexico (2nd Temple)
    2. Buenos Aries, Argentina (2nd Temple)
    3. Las Vegas/Henderson, Nevada (2nd Temple)

    Statistically the city of Maracaibo, Venezuela is also really high on the list, but I wonder greatly about this one given the scope of individual freedoms and the form of government with respect to that location -- but it is a dark horse outlier that should not be discounted too heavily for certain. In a similar vein, so too is Beijing, China.

    In the scheme of things, my guess is new temples in Europe are pretty low on the list -- at least until the Budapest, Hungary temple is well under way if not completed.

    Captain Jack Sparrow Lives said...

    I love it.

    I am a global economist and international attorney. I have a passion for trying to use statistical models to predict where the next LDS Temples will likely be announced. There are a lot of factors that go into this analysis and no one factor is determinative. We have dialogued before in the past and I am glad to see you incorporating some of my own location thoughts from the past into your predictions, or maybe great minds just think alike. ;)

    Here are my new Top 10:

    1. North Logan/Smithfield, Utah
    2. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
    3. Colorado Springs, Colorado
    4. Kaohsiung/Taichung, Taiwan
    5. Belo Horizonte, Brazil
    6. Mbuji Mayi/Kananga, DRC
    7. Valparaiso/Vina Del Mar, Chile
    8. Monrovia, Liberia
    9. Singapore
    10. New Delhi, India

    Top 20:

    11. Pleasant View, Utah
    12. Austin, Texas
    13. Kumasi, Ghana
    14. Jacksonville, Florida
    15. La Paz, Bolivia
    16. Antananarivo, Madagascar
    17. Angeles, Philippines
    18. Jakarta, Indonesia
    19. Missoula, Montana
    20. Charlotte, North Carolina

    It is harder to predict second temple locations where temples already exist, but the following are likely high priorities (easily top 10):

    1. Mexico City, Mexico (2nd Temple)
    2. Buenos Aries, Argentina (2nd Temple)
    3. Las Vegas/Henderson, Nevada (2nd Temple)

    Statistically the city of Maracaibo, Venezuela is also really high on the list, but I wonder greatly about this one given the scope of individual freedoms and the form of government with respect to that location -- but it is a dark horse outlier that should not be discounted too heavily for certain. In a similar vein, so too is Beijing, China.

    In the scheme of things, my guess is new temples in Europe are pretty low on the list -- at least until the Budapest, Hungary temple is well under way if not completed.


    Captain Jack Sparrow Lives said...

    I love it.

    I am a global economist and international attorney. I have a passion for trying to use statistical models to predict where the next LDS Temples will likely be announced. There are a lot of factors that go into this analysis and no one factor is determinative. We have dialogued before in the past and I am glad to see you incorporating some of my own location thoughts from the past into your predictions, or maybe great minds just think alike. ;)

    Here are my new Top 10:

    1. North Logan/Smithfield, Utah
    2. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
    3. Colorado Springs, Colorado
    4. Kaohsiung/Taichung, Taiwan
    5. Belo Horizonte, Brazil
    6. Mbuji Mayi/Kananga, DRC
    7. Valparaiso/Vina Del Mar, Chile
    8. Monrovia, Liberia
    9. Singapore
    10. New Delhi, India

    Top 20:

    11. Pleasant View, Utah
    12. Austin, Texas
    13. Kumasi, Ghana
    14. Jacksonville, Florida
    15. La Paz, Bolivia
    16. Antananarivo, Madagascar
    17. Angeles, Philippines
    18. Jakarta, Indonesia
    19. Missoula, Montana
    20. Charlotte, North Carolina

    It is harder to predict second temple locations where temples already exist, but the following are likely high priorities (easily top 10):

    1. Mexico City, Mexico (2nd Temple)
    2. Buenos Aries, Argentina (2nd Temple)
    3. Las Vegas/Henderson, Nevada (2nd Temple)

    Statistically the city of Maracaibo, Venezuela is also really high on the list, but I wonder greatly about this one given the scope of individual freedoms and the form of government with respect to that location -- but it is a dark horse outlier that should not be discounted too heavily for certain. In a similar vein, so too is Beijing, China.

    In the scheme of things, my guess is new temples in Europe are pretty low on the list -- at least until the Budapest, Hungary temple is well under way if not completed.


    Christopher Nicholson said...

    The Logan Temple already has a huge annex (and it's hideous, but I'm sure with the renovation they'll rebuild it to actually match the temple, like they're doing in St. George). If they made it bigger to increase capacity they'd also have to increase parking and there would be no temple grounds left. Salt Lake's capacity is being doubled mostly by increasing the number of ordinance rooms inside the building that already exists.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    The shortest time between a 1st stake in a city is negative. So Both Beira and Maputo would not set any records.

    The shortest time is probably Laie, which is negative by decades. The Laie Temple covered no stakes for 16 years after dedication, but the stake was based in Honolulu when it was formed in 1935. I believe it was not until after World War II that a stake was created on the same side of Oahu as the temple.

    Switzerland it is over 5 years before the country has a stake after the temple. England is only maybe 2 years, and maybe 4 for London. New Zealand basically gets a stake when it gets a temple, but that is still years after the announcement.

    Kyiv's stake post dates its temple. Also Shanghai has a temple announced but no stake.

    I think India only had 5 years from the first stake to the temple was announced.

    It is a 7 hour drive from Maputo to Durban, and that is assuming that you even can get across the international border. Not exactly what I would consider close. Although Maputo to Beira is 17 hours of driving, so worse. In fact Durban is only about 20 minutes closer to Maputo than is Johannesburg. It is 18 hours from Beira to Johannesburg, although that is assuming you are not delayed at all at the border, which is probably never going to happen if you are the rare person in Beira with both a car and the money to pay for gas, if you are with a ward or stake group on a bus crossing the border is going to be even a longer delay. Beira to Harare is 8 hours and 17 minutes. I am guessing Zimbabwe will give less hassle than Mozambique on coming in, but could be wrong. That means going to Maputo takes about twice as long.

    None of these drive times are low, and I am not sure they take into account that some roads may be so muddy you have to get out and push your car. Still unless it is super, super expensive or otherwise difficult to cross international boundaries, a Maputo Temple will not be worth going to for those in Beira and a Beira Temple will not be worth going to for those in Maputo. This is one country where I can see both Maputo and Beira have temples announced at the same time.

    James said...

    Pascal, I tried posting this earlier, but apparently, for whatever reason, it was not approved. Unless I'm mistaken, the Salvador Brazil Temple was announced in the October 2018 General Conference:

    https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/temples-announced-october-2018-general-conference

    https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/salvador-brazil-temple/

    James said...

    Meanwhile, I have some new thoughts I wanted to mention here, which I didn't mention in my previous comment. I addressed the issue of the Manti Temple closing later this year on my blog. But the St. George Temple is anticipated to reopen at some point next year, which would help with some of the gap. Could a temple in Richfield be a compromise, if built on an accelerated schedule as is planned for the Deseret Peak Temple? Maybe. But no guarantee.

    As for the length of the Manti renovation, the St. George renovation started in 2019 and is anticipated to wrap up next year, as I said earlier in this comment. Meanwhile, the Salt Lake Temple closed last year, and the original announcement on the plans was that that temple was anticipated to reopen in 2024. With the adjusted renovation plans for that temple, the Church has now said that a time-frame for the reopening of that temple will be announced later on as progress is made on the renovations.

    And right now, all we know on the Manti renovation is that there will be some changes made to that temple that are similar or identical to those of the Salt Lake Temple. But I want to clarify that the concept of a second baptistry has only been officially announced for the Salt Lake Temple. Assuming a second baptistry will be added to other temples that have been or may soon be renovated may or may not be a wise idea. I find it interesting that, particularly relative to Manti, there has been no mention of a second baptistry as part of the plans. Until further evidence suggests otherwise, I'm assuming that both Salt Lake and Manti could have their renovations wrap up in late 2024-early 2025.

    As far as a future renovation for the Provo Utah Temple, I could see it happen. With the Provo City Center Temple now operating, and with temples that are or will soon be under construction in Saratoga Springs, Orem, and Lindon Utah, the plan could be to provide sufficient temple support to close Provo for a full renovation. I fully anticipate that could (and probably will) happen sooner rather than later. At the same time, I'm not so sure that an overhaul of the exterior would be part of those plans for that renovation.

    James said...

    And in general, it's difficult to know whether the Church putting two baptistries in the Salt Lake Temple renovation plans is the start of a new trend for second baptistries that will apply to other temples, whether it will only apply to a few temples under very specific circumstances, or whether the two baptistry solution is a one-time thing for the Salt Lake Temple. Right now, we have only the one announcement of the two baptistries for the highly-used Salt Lake Temple. So that may not be enough on its' own to suggest the start of a new precedent where second baptistries would be widely empoloyed. Would it be awesome to see second baptistries in use in more temples? Of course. But I hope that no one anticipating the more wide usage of two baptistries in other temples won't be disappointed if Salt Lake turns out to be th only temple to which that applies.

    Either way, there will be much more ahead in terms of temple developments. Hopefully during General Conference, a future press conference to discuss the plans for Manti will be announced, and we may then find out more about that in that press conference, or through other news releases after General Conference. Given the fact that multiple temples closed for renovation in 2018 and 2019, I do think we will see other renovations announced this year, including many of the temples mentioned here.

    It's also worth noting that the number of temples that had a groundbreaking last year and are awaiting the commencement of full-scale construction is now down to just 4 or 5. And in addition to the 2 temple groundbreakings already announced this year, I see at least 4 others that are almost certain to have groundbreakings announced soon, along with at leat 8-10 others that could have more official information announced (including groundbreaking arrangements) within the next 3-4 months. Hope these additional thoughts are helpful. My thanks once again to you all.

    Wisconsinite said...

    Full disclosure: former member, still love predicting this stuff! :)

    As a Wisconsinite, I would say that a Wisconsin temple is so incredibly unlikely. Our numbers were booming for a little while in the early 2000's, but have since mellowed out. Visiting general authorities, when asked about the question of a Wisconsin temple, have said multiple times that we would need four stakes in Madison to justify a temple there. Also, the Chicago temple is barely used with the Indianapolis Temple now in service, so I really really really doubt a temple for Wisconsin any time in the next couple decades tbh...

    My personal predictions (in no particular order):
    Smithfield, Utah
    Price, Utah
    Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
    Antananarivo, Madagascar
    Missoula, Montana
    Culiacan, Mexico
    Monrovia, Liberia

    I'm gonna predict that they'll announce 7 new temples, call me an optimist~

    Searchthetruth said...

    Interesting thoughts and I wasn’t thinking about parking when I mentioned the Logan temple doubling its capacity. I do agree that the present annex will be torn down and something that matches better will be built just like they did to the St George temple. So maybe it would be safer to say that they would increase capacity (not double) during renovation.

    Also I do agree with others that if they announce some temples with second baptisteries it will be very few locations that actually have that sort of demand. I think that Provo and Logan would be a likely locations upon renovations.

    Anybody know how busy the Manti temple was before COVID?

    Ben H said...

    Looks like there are will be 2 stakes in the Fairbanks, Alaska area. Makes it more likely a Winnipeg-sized temple will go there.

    L. Chris Jones said...

    Salt Lake has some decent public transportation which helps with reducing overall need for some parking. Logan has farefree public transportation which may reduce some parking needs. However most in the areas still drive.

    Jim Anderson said...

    TRAX has a station either side of Temple Square, and while UTA has rerouted things so that the contractors can dig up the street if necessary and that without having to really force major detours, the hope is when close to getting done they can run buses again on North Temple, a fair number ran on that and there was a stop in front of the Church Office Building on the north side. There were about 30 routes, some from as far away as Ogden and Provo, but most had at least a good portion in Salt Lake itself so you could get there by bus from any part of Salt Lake itself, and much of the valley north of I-215 as well.

    There is still a stop on State Street, may have the temple in view as you get off.

    Scooter said...

    Heber City, Spanish Fork, Iquitos Peru, Austin TX

    Cory said...

    To fuel the speculation of double baptistries, I have a "apparently someone said" story. I have seen comments on social media by creator of Photogent (http://3dtemples.photogent.com/) that in a fireside by the couple that used to own the property where the Syracuse temple is being built, they reported that the temple will have two baptistries. So when I heard the news about the Salt Lake Temple, I wasn't surprised by the news of the double baptistry.

    A few suggestions for the potentials new temples map:
    If you are bullish about more temples in Europe, I would suggest Birmingham England. It could have 11 or 12 stakes, which is a lot for Europe.

    Modesto California is another possible site. It would probably take stakes from Sacramento, Oakland, and Fresno. I would probably downgrade Bakersfield to less likely status.(It still says Bakersville on the map).

    EP said...

    Sometime in the next 5 years, I’d like to think. Would be good for Fairbanks and the area given the weather issues.

    Kermit said...

    The Syracuse Temple will have two baptistries, as revealed by the couple who sold their property to the Church.

    EP said...

    That’s fascinating. May account for the unusual design, I wonder if both fonts will be in the single story part of the temple in front of the main edifice.

    EP said...

    @John Pack Lambert I have no idea if my previous comment went through as I got an error when I postedit, so I'll post again just to be safe. Preston would likely serve 10-20 stakes, depending on how the boundaries are redrawn.

    For sure: (8)
    Arimo Idaho Stake
    Franklin Idaho Stake
    Grace Idaho Stake
    Paris Idaho Stake
    Preston Idaho North Stake
    Preston Idaho South Stake
    Richmond Utah Stake
    Soda Springs Idaho Stake (currently Star Valley, soon to be Pocatello)

    Probably: (8)
    Malad Idaho Stake (currently Brigham City)
    Montpelier Idaho South Stake (currently Star Valley)
    Montpelier Idaho Stake (currently Star Valley)
    Benson Utah Stake
    Smithfield Utah North Stake
    Smithfield Utah South Stake
    Smithfield Utah Stake
    Smithfield Utah YSA Stake

    Possibly: (3)
    Hyde Park Utah Stake
    North Logan Utah Green Canyon Stake
    North Logan Utah Stake

    Even Preston serving 16 stakes would take Logan to 25 for the time being. I still think Smithfield would likely be announced in the near future as well, but following the trend of building on the edge of temple districts, combined with improving the winter commute for the Idaho stakes, Preston seems like a sound choice. Wherever the 2nd Cache Valley temple ultimately is built, I expect it to be announced this year so it is mostly done ahead of Logan's renovation. Otherwise, that is 41 additional stakes that will overload Brigham City, and to a much lesser extent Pocatello and Star Valley.

    EP said...

    Two other things I'd like to chime in on.

    Relative to temples with multiple baptistries, it's a fascinating concept that I have wondered from time to time why we as a Church haven't further investigated. I don't think it makes sense at most temples, but for places with higher youth concentrations like the Mormon corridor or near MTCs and Church schools, I think it's brilliant. Hearing Syracuse having a second baptistry makes me think we could see this as a trend emerge in Utah and select other places. Probably something like Provo, Logan, St. George #3, any temple near an LDS-heavy college, etc.

    Speaking of. I think we'll see more and more cities have second temples announced based on usage, combined with other factors like those factoring into second baptistries. That would likely make larger metros, particularly internationally such as Mexico City, Buenos Aires, and Lima (yes, I fully expect Lima to have a third temple announced within the decade) great candidates. Santiago may be in that list as well, but hard to say without seeing usage patterns. It definitely seems like a lot of the second temple cities announced so far have some version of the six spire design, probably because they have outgrown the initial temple. Before President Nelson, Lima was the third smallest temple in the Church, and it served nearly 100 stakes at one point. Guatemala City is in the same boat. Manila is the same as well. Las Vegas, while having a much larger six spire design, is frequently rumored to be home to a second temple in the near future. Portland metro area could potentially be in the same boat depending on where the next Oregon temple is built.

    Oh yeah, one more thing. Don't be surprised if Rexburg #2 is announced this conference.

    Jim Anderson said...

    Freshly-found rumor from someone in Queen Creek.

    Everyone seems to have a rumor there, but the two biggest is that if eventually announced, the temple could be at Ironwood and SR-24, near the proving grounds, or a couple miles south, also on Ironwood but at Ocotillo.

    There is very rapid growth on the south end, as far south as Hunt Highway, the area by Ellsworth is being developed now, with another area just about to go one side of that, that is in QC South stake, which right now has eight wards. The report I got also said that more people show up at church every week than the week before.

    So while I do not see it this time, maybe a couple of conferences out.

    Eric S. said...

    I wonder if Lindon might be built with two baptistries if that is the case. If Salt Lake and Davis counties will have two-baptistry temples, surely Utah county will as well even if it has the most temples. Although Provo certainly could instead if a renovation plan is coming to it in the near future. Will be fascinating to see.

    John G said...

    I would like to see the second or eventual Cache Valley temple in Hyrum. I'd love a temple to bear the name of Joseph Smith's brother and a martyr.

    Daniel Moretti said...

    I believe that a new program of small temples should be announced, not in the strange design of 1999, but something in the style of Winnipeg. If this impression is confirmed, perhaps Brazil will receive 4 or even 5 temples of this style in the next years, including Belo Horizonte, Ribeirão Preto, Londrina / Foz do Iguaçu / Ciudad de Leste, Florianópolis and João Pessoa.

    Jim Anderson said...

    Lindon will be smaller than Layton by about 8k square feet, also Syracuse and Red Cliffs, the group under those in size includes Taylorsville, Deseret Peak and Orem. We also know what the inside square footage of the Manti and Logan temples are, and with whatever changes that are made at most I would expect the change to only be a few hundred square feet either way based on where walls may be changed out, etc.

    The space matters are what will likely determine what a given temple may have in terms of actual space to put different things within it in.

    Eric S. said...

    @Pascal

    Temples for Salvador Brazil and Cagayen de Oro Philippines were announced in 2018. So two more off the list :)

    The Spencers said...

    Yay for temples! Here's my top 10:
    Mongolia
    Madagascar
    Belo Horizonte, Brazil
    Vina del Mar/Valparaiso, Chile
    Chiclayo, Peru
    Torreon, Mexico
    Cottonwood Hts, UT
    Spanish Fork or Springville, UT
    Rosario, Argentina
    Austin, TX
    So many more possibilities. I hope the prophet gives lots of good news at conference regarding temples, even if it's just that they'll be dedicating the completed one's soon. So happy that my temple (KC) moved to phase 2-B, and my future temple (Bentonville) is being built. I drive by it on my way to/from work every day. Such great blessings!

    Kenny said...

    There is also extra square footage that can used in older temples if the cafeteria is removed.

    Eduardo said...

    Wisconsinite, I invite you to be a member again. Wisconsin and the Midwest need more faith and action, it starts with you.
    I am from Indiana originally; the membership waxes and wanes but the truth remains the same. Join it and exalt the world and beyond.
    That is the purpose of our temples. They make the hunan race whole. Come back, brother.

    L. Chris Jones said...

    How many existing temples have cafeteria or clothing rental/laundry space that could be converted to ordinance space such as a second baptistry or additional instruction rooms? Several temples already don't have cafeterias or laundry facilities(except in the baptistry for wet clothing/towels). In future renovations we can increase capacity without adding square footage.

    Brett Stirling said...

    If you look at the 3D model you can see a rare entrance, it looks like seperate Baptistry entrance.

    Brett Stirling said...

    I don’t think close at all. A few of the temples under David O. McKay were completed to a stake being established.

    Christopher Duerig said...

    @Matt, In addition to all your hard work in keeping us informed of Church Growth updates, and trying to get all the countries profiles updated in your ongoing project "Reaching All Nations" online resource.

    With so few new Stakes/Districts organized since April 2020 in the Church, I wonder if you have also a list of the "Top Most Likely Stakes to split" in the church. I would be most grateful to hear your thoughts. Thank you.

    I know that last year before the Pandemic began, you informed us there was word from the Africa West Area leaders that they had planned to organize 20 new Stakes in the Area. With only 3 of those finalized to date, the remaining 17 on your list was the following :

    Here's a list of 17 stakes that appear likely to be organized in 2021:

    COTE D'IVOIRE (3)
    Abidjan Cote d'Ivoire (15th stake)
    Abidjan Cote d'Ivoire (16th stake)
    Yamoussoukro Cote d'Ivoire (2nd stake)

    GHANA (4)
    Ashaiman Ghana (2nd stake)
    Kumasi Ghana (5th stake)
    Sunyani Ghana (1st stake)
    Tema Ghana (2nd stake)

    LIBERIA (1)
    Monrovia Liberia (6th stake)

    NIGERIA (9)
    Aba Nigeria (5th stake)
    Benin City Nigeria (9th stake)
    Benin City Nigeria (10th stake)
    Eket Nigeria (2nd stake)
    Ikot Ekpene Nigeria (2nd stake)
    Lagos Nigeria (7th stake)
    Lagos Nigeria (8th stake)
    Ogwashi-uku Nigeria (1st stake)
    Ukat Aran Nigeria (2nd stake)

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @Historia Familiar Valenzuela Escobar

    I'm curious as to what you mean by "family history centers work terrible?“

    John Pack Lambert said...

    Salt Lake Temple can increase capacity because it is at the hub of public transit and with Temple Square being a central draw to all sorts of people the use of the temple itself has little impact of traffic and parking.

    I think though that central draw will mean lots of people from elsewhere visiting the temple. So I have my doubts that the renovation will really solve many demand issues.

    Unknown said...

    My dark horse is Ivins Utah, tons of growth going on in the west side of St. George in Ivins/Santa Clara. This temple would take Ivins and Santa Clara Stakes from a St. George Temple already set to re-open at full capacity even with the new Red Cliffs Temple going up. It would also take Mesquite, Beaver Dam and Logandale areas from an over capacity LV Temple. It is a better alternative than Henderson for these areas as it is closer along old highway 40 to Ivins than Henderson.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    Is the Kenya Nairobi Temple the last Monsonian announced temple to not yet have ground broken? That temple was announced almost 4 years ago.

    Nancy said...

    Daniel Moretti, I recently also had the thought that many more small temples could be built, in some of the 'less likely' locations, to serve smaller groups of saints. Wouldn't it be so thrilling if Pres. Nelson announced 20 temples (!) half of which were a smaller plan appropriate for serving 3-8 stakes in far flung areas? I'm praying.

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @Wisconsinite

    I was thinking 7 also. (or at least, somewhere between 5-8).

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    I wonder if we will see a third Provo Temple before the original one is renovated. I still hope they incorporate some of Emil Fetzer's original circular design if they decide to redesign.

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @Daniel Moretti

    I'm also interested to see whether the Church does any more in the style of Winnipeg. I'm not entirely sold on the chapel design, but it did seem to me like they were trying Winnipeg out as sort of a prototype for that style.

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @Daniel Moretti

    Alternatively, it seems like the Puerto Rico/Guam/Cape Verde style of smaller temple may be one the Church could run with for a while.

    JonnaKoo said...

    New stake in Finland! Coming in May. Includes all the districts (Vaasa, Oulu, Kuopio) and also Lappeenranta ward from Helsinki stake and Jyväskylä ward from Tampere stake. Will be called Jyväskylä stake. 14 wards or branches, more than in other stakes. Huge also geographically

    Daniel Moretti said...

    But in these places are nothing...

    Daniel Moretti said...

    Johnathan, really. Both the style of San Juan, Praia and Guam could be used for these small international temples, as well the design of Okinawa and Port Moresby. But I think if the Church is going to implement a new program of small and remote temples, the prototype for that would first be built in North America, in the same way that Monticiello and Anchorage were previously. Sorry for my bad english

    Jim Anderson said...

    Heard this week also that some people from Wisconsin and Minnesota are leaving, along witr what we know in regards to California, much of that due to the known political climate in those areas, to the Phoenix area, some are going to the newer fringe areas like Queen Creek and there may be some going to north Phoenix too.

    Have not got a read on where Utah is getting most of its growth from, traditionally it has seemed to be California and a couple other nearby states,

    Eric S. said...

    @David Todd

    Apologies if this was already answered as I may have missed it, but I believe the answer to your question about the shortest time between a first stake in a city/country and a temple (not counting those where a temple was announced prior to a stake creation) is Cambodia. The first two stakes were created in Phnom Penh in 2014 and the temple was announced in 2018, so 4 years.

    @John

    Yes, the Nairobi Temple is the only Monson announced temple remaining that has not yet had a groundbreaking. Fingers crossed that happens soon. Although, prior to the recent acceleration of temple construction the past few years, it seemed like 4-5 years was fairly average between announcements and groundbreakings.

    Excited to hear of a new stake in Finland. Awesome!

    Looking forward to conference in a week.

    James said...

    John Pack Lambert, you are correct. The Nairobi Kenya Temple is the last temple announced by President Monson that has not yet had a groundbreaking. But given all that was done in the last two years to clear the queue of his predecessor's announced temples, I have a strong feeling Nairobi will be one of those that has a groundbreaking at some point this year. With Elder Joseph W. Sitati, a native Kenyan who has previously served for a time as one of the Assistant Executive Directors of the Temple Department, currently serving as the first president of the Africa Central Area, perhaps that could help accelerate approvals for the temple.

    Nancy, last year the Church broke ground for an impressive 21 new temples. That leaves just 28 temples in the announced queue. Of those, 2 have groundbreakings scheduled (Deseret Peak and Syracuse Utah).7 others have had sites announced, 6 of which have also had exterior renderings released, so add those to the queue of temples likely to have a groundbreaking soon. There are also 5-7 others on which I am keeping my eyes open for further information. That's a total of 14-16 thus far that are likely to have a groundbreaking this year.

    If that happens, not accounting for new temples that are certain to be announced in the two General Conferences this year, that would bring the queue of announced temples awaiting official information to a total of 12-14, unless my math is off. Since there were 12 temples in the queue of those announced when President Nelson became the prophet in January 2018, the prospect of bringing the queue down that low at some point this year not only means that new temples are likely to be announced in April and October yet again, but it also suggests to me that the number of temples announced by President Nelson next weekend are likely to be in the double-digits.

    For any who may be interested, here is a link to a Google Docs document I maintain that shows the announced temples for which there is not currently any official information. Those temples are sorted first by the General Conference at which each was announced, then lists the temples for each conference in alphabetical order, with a total number of announced temples from each conference noted.

    At the bottom, I'm including information about the total number of announced temples, the list of those that have a groundbreaking scheduled, and the total number of temples (19 of the 28) that have not had any information officially announced. That document can be viewed at the following web address:

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-a6AOFZhlcoRb5P4KhTpJLaedkz9wkpz6J4N-Nnd_3I/edit?usp=sharing

    Hopefully this information is helpful to all of you. My thanks again to Matt for allowing us to discuss such topics here and share information like this.

    Daniel Moretti said...

    Me too, Nancy! Would be amazing

    Krenn said...

    A special conference, announced today in sacrament meeting, will be held on April 11, 2021 to create a new stake in Central Indiana. Invited to the conference are the members of the Indianapolis North, Indianapolis West, and Lafayette Indiana stakes.

    Ruth Ellen Homer

    Anonymous said...

    In addition to out of state move ins, Latter-day Saints tend to have lots of children and lots of out of state college students stay after graduation.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    My sister is married to a Daniel Boling whose mother is Victoria "Vickie" Homer Boling, daughter of Benjamin Homer who spent part of her life in Indiana and has many relatives there. I am wondering if Ruth Ellen Homer is one of those relatives.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    At least if I remember correctly in the Las Vegas Temple the cafeteria was on the lower level and close to the Baptistry. I could see converting a lot of cafeterias into baptistries.

    Of course I have also tried to do preliminary lists for 1000 temples by 2030. I know we would need to pick up the pace but who in 1991 could have predicted 100 temples by 2000? OK, by percentage we are more like the 1980 percentage of 100 temples. Maybe either 1000 temples by 2036, the 200th anniversary of the first temple, or 2046, the 200th anniversary of the first temple dedicated doing vicarious work for the dead, are more realistic. We will see.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    I should also point out that all the parking right by the Salt Lake Temple is underground. I believe Philadelphia Temple has underground parking as do a few others. Building underground parking or a parking structure (I think the former would be more aesthetically pleasing) would be a way to expand a temple without having to expand the property it is on. However such plans would face large scale Nimby attacks and only make sense where the temple is easily reachable from its district. If our ideal is as many members as possible being able to do after work temple attendance, Oakland and LA temples probably would need to see additional temples in their metro area, at some point a temple will be built somewhere in Westchester County, and Baltimore is a contender for a temple. We will also see more Latin American cities get second temples.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    Why do people think Las Vegas temple is over capacity? Las Vegas and Dallas Temples serve virtually the same number of stakes but Las Vegas is twice as big. Beaver Dam is in the Mesquite Stake, and that stake has probably always done much of its temple work in St. George no matter where it was officially assigned.

    The growth of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in the Las Vegas metro area has been largely on the north-west side of the metro area. The temple is in the north east, Henderson in the south east, but development goes further east as you go south. It is 58 minutes from Logandale to the Las Vegas Temole. It is 1 hour and 13 minutes from Logandale to Ivins. Reassigning Logandale Stake to Ivins Utah makes no sense at all.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    Traditionally Utah was the only state in the western US where its population was being propelled mainly by natural population growth.

    In the last decade or less this has changed. Still bear in mind about 1980 is when Utah ended 60 or so years of not out migration with the rest of the US. Some of the moves since then were members with Utah roots deciding to go back to Utah.

    The California to Utah flow has been thr largest, but there is flow from lots of places. I had a friend at BYU who joined the Church in Provo after moving from Peru. The fourth district has elected two African-American Republicans to Congress, one moved to Utah from Connecticut the other to Utah from Philadelphia.

    I have known many Church members who moved from Michigan to Utah. Some had Utah roots, some did not. This is ignoring the even larger numbers who went to college in Utah, most of whom never came back to Michigan, although some ended up in other states eventually.

    To be fair I am the type of person who would live to have more data on this.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    The Maputo Stake in Mozambique was organized in Feb. 2015. So that puts them at 6 years from the first stake. Of course almost everywhere has 2 stakes before the first temple is announced and Phenom Penn got 2 stakes at the same time, so if that is a useable measure we have to look elsewhere. Also since Vanuatu, Guam, Okinaw and Manitoba among other places had 1 stake when the temple was announced, lots of places do not have 2 stakes. Yigo Guam Temple will probably cover stakes in other areas and the same may be true of Port Vila Vanuatu. The other two temples may only cover 1 stake.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    It might, although the Church's absolute refusal to pay any form of a bribe can slow things. There are also some very strong feelings against The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Kenya.

    I have to admit I keep hoping a Kampala Temple will be announced. If Cambodia with 2 stakes can have a temple announced while Bangkock is underway than I see no reason why Uganda with 3 stakes can't. I would be more confident in this theory if a few more districts in Kenya were to become stakes.

    Nairobi is also the only city that President Nelson visited on his first world ministry tour where there has not at least been a ground breaking, if we ignore Jerusalem.

    I guess Bangalaru Temple was only announced 1 year after Nairobi. The Harare Zimbabwe Temple was announced a year before and only had ground broken in December, and Guayaquil Ecuador waited over a decade from announcement to groundbreaking. So evidently did Los Angeles. So Nairobi is no where near a record.

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    My friend recently married a man from Kumasi Ghana, and I got to meet him for the first time today!

    He's excited about the prospect of a potential temple in Kumasi (4 stakes) as well. He says the trip to Accra is dangerous for them.

    JMR said...

    I have read several comments in this thread about 2 baptistries. My brother in law's brother is an architect for the Church and he said that the brethren talked about double baptistries in Ogden and Jordan River but decided against it. The only temple that will have one is the Salt Lake Temple. I don't know that it will ever be part of a normal temple plan. The brethren will probably just build more temples.

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @Daniel Moretti

    I agree it will be interesting to see what the Church decides in the near future. Perhaps we'll see a mix of all 3 styles being used in different areas?

    Kinshasa and Pago Pago are smaller styles also, distinct from the ones we mentioned above.

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @John Pack Lambert

    What is a Nimby attack for those of us who don't know?

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @Jim Anderson

    Lots of people move here (to Utah) because the Church is already so big and they're looking to be in larger Wards or around more members if they're from an area with say, a small branch.

    Plenty of people move here for school (the Church schools and others). Or to work at the colleges. Several of my friends are staff or faculty at Weber State, and they're from Africa, Europe, South America, and Asia.

    A lot of singles move here, looking for a spouse (both younger and Mid-singles).

    And the technology industry is booming, so plenty of people are moving here for jobs (both members and non-members).

    Oh, and Utahns still have a fair amount of kids (my sister has nine). ;)

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @Jim Anderson

    Oh, and like several of our neighboring western states, we have a significant Hispanic population.

    Fredrick said...

    If Las Vegas gets a temple it will be built in the Summerlin area. The Church owns a plot of land near Hualapai and Alta. I believe this plot will eventually be used for a temple. It's located a half mile from the Red Rock Stake Center. The plot of land where that stake center sits is located is large enough to construct another chapel on it.

    Francesca said...

    @Johnathan Reese Whiting

    Nimby is short for "Not in my backyard." where usually affluent, suburban, white individuals and families object to a community project. Let's say a city decided to expand a bus line and route it directly through a suburban neighborhood, instead of on a main thoroughfare. Despite increasing access to public transport, a nimby would be against it for any number of reasons. The same thing happens often when municipalities try to expand affordable housing or zone for denser building.

    On that note, I have a lot to say about the Church in Utah and how I feel it negatively contributes to increased suburbanization...

    Thomas Jay Kemp said...

    With 42 Temples moving to Phase 2b status - opening for baptisms/confirmations - I wonder if we will see some/all of these temples opening around the clock since this is the only ordinance that can be done there except for the personal ordinances for living individuals?

    With the high interest by the thousands of families and wards in those Temple districts - temporarily adjusting their hours to accommodate the Saints wanting to labor there would be a real blessing.

    Whizzbang said...

    I live in Winnipeg and the temple district consists of the Winnipeg Stake, Fort Frances District-which is not big at all and the two wards from Grand Forks-which was recently added.

    Daniel Moretti said...

    I work in the Public Administration sector in Brazil, and one of my areas of research is urban development. I am interested in reading your impressions about these questions that you approached. Sorry for my bad english

    Wisconsinite said...

    @Eduardo please don't try to 'reactivate' me. You don't know me, I don't know you, you don't need to or want to know my faith journey and this really isn't the place. We are here to talk and read about church growth and temples~~

    The Invisible Latter-day Saint said...

    @Thomas Jay Kemp The Mount Timpanogos Utah temple baptistry opens at 4:30am (in a non-pandemic world). It's busy with youth who want to do baptisms prior to going to school. My wife, a middle-school teacher, can always tell which young women have gone to the temple by their wet hair.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    However the decisions on Ogden and Jordan River were made several years ago. So I am not sure they are strong precedents for the future.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    Hmm, the Church in Utah negatively contribute to suburbanization by spending billions to revitalize downtown Salt Lake City? We do not need your hate here. Also we do not need your false analysis of NIMBY. Stop assuming race. NIMBY hurts development and class would actually tell us a lot more about some of the issues then race.

    In Sterling Heights it was Iraqi immigrants in the main who were the most vocal opponents to building a mosque.

    The world is far more complex than your narrow attempt to treat every development issue as a binary fight about race will ever realize.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    This is the place to reach out and seek to bring people fully back into The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. I do not think it is acceptable to limit such conversations, and if such conversations are categorically banned many of us will feel no incentive to remain.

    Anonymous said...

    I think your request is fair.

    Anonymous said...

    I’d guess a Spanish Fork/Springville temple will be announced before the Provo temple is renovated.

    Eric S. said...

    Folks, let's respect each other's viewpoints and not derail conversations, please. Much respect to all of you and your contributions and guesses to this comment section. It makes these biyearly posts a lot of fun! :) Looking forward to this conference and possibly discussing where, if any, new temples are announced. Hope you all have a safe, healthy and blessed Easter weekend... ♡

    L. Chris Jones said...

    A small/medium sized temple may be possible in Kabab to serve about 5 stakes based in distance in time and mileage. (Page AZ, 2 in Kabab UT, Panguitch UT, and Escalate UT stakes). Although the difference for those last two is only a few minutes for from city center to city center. Some wards are substantially closer to Kabab. But winter driving conditions may not be taken into account.

    Wisconsinite said...

    @John Pack Lambert hey you are welcome to talk about whatever you want, I am not the moderator, and if you really want to try to convert me, go right ahead! I was a member too, I understand the desire to convert. I am also very grateful for those who respect my boundaries.

    I personally would rather discuss temple things...

    I've been looking at Rick Scatterfield's temple website map with 200-mile radii drawn around temples, and I've noticed a few large gaps that would be hard to fill. If The Church is still interested in making sure members are within 200 mi of a temple, these might be some fun dark horse picks!

    -There's a gap in north Uruguay/Southwest Brazil/Northeast Argentina 8+ stakes and several districts. Maybe Rivera Uruguay temple?
    -There are gaps all over Brazil, I could see a series of small temples announced for Brazil, like Cuiaba, Campo Grande, Palmas, Teresina, and definitely Belo Horizonte
    -Neuquen Argentina
    -Iquitos Peru
    -Kasai region DRC
    -Barcelona
    -maybe Edinburgh/Glasgow to reach the Aberdeen stake
    -Abuja Nigeria
    -Culiacan/Torreon/Durango Mexico area
    -Ulaanbaatar Mongolia
    -Puerto Princessa Philippines
    -Cape Town/Gqeberha/East London South Africa
    -Maracaibo Venezuela

    Plus many others, but these are the ones I'm partial to. I'm thinking that South America really has great potential for many new temples. Thoughts?

    Logan H said...

    Any thoughts on Prescott Arizona getting a temple before or instead of Flagstaff. I've heard members in the Prescott area are more Temple going than Flag.

    Also is there any rule of thumb for how long before a Temple is announced when the church already has a large peice of land for one to be build on? I've noticed Colorado Springs and some other places where the church has property that a Temple could be built on. However, Herriman Utah I know is a popular one where the church has had land for a Temple for a long time.

    L. Chris Jones said...

    Where is the 200 mile refi map on Rick's site?

    John G said...

    My top ten for this conference are (no particular order)

    -Price/Delta/Nephi/Spanish Fork UT (to ease up on Manti as that starts the renovation)
    -Bakersfield/Central Coast California (Maybe San Luis Obispo/Ventura/Santa Maria)
    -Evanston WY (eases Salt Lake and/or Ogden)
    -Eugene Oregon or Missoula Montana
    -Ulaanbaatar Mongolia
    -Belo Horizonte, Brazil
    -Iquitos Peru
    -Monrovia, Liberia
    -Edinburgh, Scotland
    -Oslo, Norway

    Daniel Moretti said...

    As a Brazilian, I really hope you are right. What site is this you refer?

    Cory said...

    I would hope that more individuals could feel a spiritual home in the teachings of the church/Mormonism regardless of membership or temple recommend status.

    In a recent BYU devotional, Elder Stevenson said 81% of membership live within 2 hours of one of the 231 temples. Travel time might be a new benchmark within internal church discussions. But I'm sure the 200 mile radius is still important. It's a little bit harder to map two hours of travel distance.

    https://speeches.byu.edu/talks/gary-e-stevenson/divinely-appointed-responsibilities-heavenly-blessings/

    I've also thought about Rivera, Uruguay as a temple site. Effectively, Rivera and Santana do Livramento, Brazil are one city with two stakes. The boarder between the two cities is completely open, making international travel easy for either Brazilians or Uruguayans. They speak a dialect that is referred to as "portuñol." It could work as a regional regional temple serving both Spanish and Portuguese speakers. Matt has Tacuarembó, Uruguay and Santa Maria, Brazil on his list of potential sites. Perhaps that scenario is more likely if language is seen as a barrier.

    Daniel Moretti said...

    I found Rick's website. But how do you see that 200 miles mark on the map?

    Ross Tenney said...

    I am thinking that there will be 12 temples announced this Sunday. I have my Top 24 locations broken down as follows:

    Utah

    Heber City
    Smithfield

    Western US

    Flagstaff, AZ
    San Tan Valley, AZ
    Bakersfield, CA
    Colorado Springs, CO
    Henderson, NV

    Eastern US

    NONE

    Canada

    Ottawa, Ontario

    Mexico

    Queretaro

    South America

    Iquitos, Peru
    Punta Arenas, Chile or Ushuaia, Argentina
    Belo Horizonte, Brazil
    Port of Spain, Trinidad

    Europe

    Barcelona, Spain
    Vienna, Austria
    Oslo, Norway

    Africa

    Monrovia, Liberia
    Kampala, Uganda
    Antananarivo, Madagascar
    Maputo, Mozambique
    Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo

    Pacific

    Christchurch, New Zealand
    Angeles, Philippines

    Asia

    Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

    Ross Tenney said...

    I am thinking that there will be 12 temples announced this Sunday. I have my Top 24 locations broken down as follows:

    Utah

    Heber City
    Smithfield

    Western US

    Flagstaff, AZ
    San Tan Valley, AZ
    Bakersfield, CA
    Colorado Springs, CO
    Henderson, NV

    Eastern US

    NONE

    Canada

    Ottawa, Ontario

    Mexico

    Queretaro

    South America

    Iquitos, Peru
    Punta Arenas, Chile or Ushuaia, Argentina
    Belo Horizonte, Brazil
    Port of Spain, Trinidad

    Europe

    Barcelona, Spain
    Vienna, Austria
    Oslo, Norway

    Africa

    Monrovia, Liberia
    Kampala, Uganda
    Antananarivo, Madagascar
    Maputo, Mozambique
    Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo

    Pacific

    Christchurch, New Zealand
    Angeles, Philippines

    Asia

    Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

    Ross Tenney said...

    I provided my Top 24 list above. I just wanted the list to be one post and my thoughts in a different one.

    Cities or Metro Areas With More Than One Temple:

    I live in the Phoenix Metro area. Prior to 2014, we had just one temple in Mesa. We would wait for 2 to 3 hours to perform baptisms. On Fridays and Saturdays the temple was at capacity. In 2014, the Gilbert and Phoenix Temples were dedicated. I attended all three regularly and it was just a better, more relaxed experience. The Gilbert temple is the busiest of the three, but all are well utilized.

    I am surprised that the Las Vegas area does not have more than one temple. In a similar fashion, I could see temples announced in Henderson and Summerlin very soon and maybe even at the same time. I think both these temples would be in the 65k - 90k sq ft design.

    I could see the same with Lima, Buenos Aires, Santiago and maybe even some of the fast growth areas in Africa.

    Small Temples

    I think we will only continue to see the small (10k sq ft) temples in remote areas like Fairbanks, AK, Gilmer, TX, Elko, NV or somewhere on the Navajo Nation. In the rapidly growing parts of Africa, I would envision the 20k-24k sq ft design.

    Making An Appointment To Attend The Temple:

    I have no issue with this procedure. I have spent significant time at the Star Valley Temple and have always had to make an appointment. I think there is some wisdom in planning and preparing for temple work.

    Locations Of Historical Significance

    I always have thought that Cove Fort would be a cool place for a temple. Would likely draw on a lot of members who would travel/visit Cove Fort.

    Gilmer, Texas would fall into this category too.

    I am also including my vision of a hogan inspired temple located on in Navajo Nation. I have always thought Window Rock?? I know Farmington, NM might be more centrally located but it is an idea that has not escaped my mind.

    Are there any other areas of historical significance?? Bembow Farm in England?? I would love to here your ideas on this one.

    Wisconsinite said...

    churchofjesuschristtemples.org

    I'm surprised more people don't know about this! It's easily the best and most comprehensive temple website on the internet.

    If you go to the "maps" tab, then select "church units", you can toggle the temples, stakes, districts, and 200 mile radius by clicking on the legend.

    I think a dual language temple on the Brazil/Uruguay border would be phenomenal, and is absolutely my favorite dark horse pick this conference :)

    Eric S. said...

    @Daniel and Chris

    Go to the "Church Units Map" under the Maps section on the site.

    https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/maps/units/

    Christopher Duerig said...
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    Jim Anderson said...

    Gilbert has been backed up a lot due to Mesa being down and Phoenix being somewhat smaller than either, so it may not be easy for us to know how busy either will be in relation to the other until Mesa is rededicated.

    The Summerlin area or north of Lone Mountain is more likely for Vegas, the current temple is a little north of east from the Strat (Stratosphere) and that is about Missouri and the Boulevard and in the enclosed area at the top a display near the window shows you where it is.

    They are completing the 215 beltway, a couple short gaps and two big interchanges are all that need to be completed, so one there would help everyone west of I-15 for sure.At least west of MLK or the next major west of that.

    John G said...

    @Rose Tenney, I think the other main historical spots have to be in Kirtland, OH and Sharon, VT , along with many spots and towns in Utah. I really believe that the Kirtland Temple will come back to us and be rededicated. I also believe at some point Sharon will receive a small Hinckley-esque or Yigo/San Juan PR temple

    L. Chris Jones said...

    Not sure about Kirtland at this time. But the COC church has divested itself of some historical properties and farmland to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints over the last several years. Could they sell it with restrictions that it stay a public building? I understand that the Kirtland temple originally used some attic space for ordinance space. Due to the historic nature of the building, could we put it in the same category as Manhattan or Hong Kong with some space public and some space dedicated for ordinance work? (Baptistry in the basement, upper levels or an annex for ordinance work, and the chapel space still public).

    L. Chris Jones said...

    Only 12 US states don't have temples at this time. Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, West Virginia, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Delaware, Mississippi, Iowa, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Kansas.

    L. Chris Jones said...

    However many of US states that don't have temples, have them close in cities on thier borders.

    L. Chris Jones said...

    Mileage distance can be measured in two or more ways. such as a straight distance (as the bird flies). But roads are not a straight shot. You may have mountains, lakes and rivers in the way that you may have to travel around. Some roads are winding or have other obstacles in the way. This can impact time and miles traveled. Or it may be much closer using some roads and further in miles but quicker in time using a major highway.

    Unknown said...

    As I served in Northern Utah/South Idaho/West Wyoming as a missionary many years ago, I can see Evanston/WY or Smithfield/UT (more likely) getting a temple in the near future. I am almost certain that a temple is overdue in Belo Horizonte and Ribeirão Preto, Brazil, although a temple in southwestern Brazil (Foz do Iguaçu or Chapecó)/eastern Paraguay (Tríplice Fronteira)/northeastern Entre Rios/Argentina would greatly benefit member that might find cheaper to navigate the Parana river to get to the temple.
    The state of São Paulo will get at least 3 other temples in the next 10 years: Ribeirão Preto and Santos (more likely) and Sorocaba/São José do Rio Preto (less likely).

    EP said...

    I think the Church will eventually reacquire the Kirtland temple, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it remain a historical landmark and not a functioning temple. I don't know that there is enough room in the blueprint of the Kirtland temple to preserve it for multi-use spaces like HK or Manhattan, and I don't think I see the Church removing the historical interior unless the reformed church has altered it so significantly. The whole building is only 15,000 square feet laid across 3 floors. I could be wrong, but I just can't see Kirtland as presently constituted as anything other than a historical landmark of the Restoration at this point.

    On Las Vegas, I think we'll see temples announced both in the Summerlin area and in the West Henderson area within the next decade. Vegas may be a bigger temple than most, but it currently serves 30 stakes, which seems to be above the internal goal of 15-20 stakes per temple. I also think that there are at least 3-5 stakes to be organized within the next few years in the valley, and we'll see a second temple announced sooner rather than later. I think Summerlin will be first, with the Church buying a new plot of land likely in the next village or two to develop west of 215, since it looks like they sold the plot they had at Alta and Hualapai. I think continued growth in West Henderson, which is about to explode due to new businesses and housing incoming, will eventually make a third temple in the Las Vegas Valley likely, since Henderson typically has a stronger LDS presence per capita compared to the rest of the valley. I honestly could even see a fourth temple on the north side of town, basically creating a compass of temples around the valley with one on each mountain range.

    The Phoenix valley I think will eventually see another two or three temples as growth continues. Queen Creek would be my next pick, but I think the west side of the valley is primed for future growth as the new freeways continue to be built. I think we'll eventually see a temple in Goodyear/Litchfield Park/Buckeye area as well. If growth also continues in the southeast as it has in Queen Creek, San Tan Valley may be another candidate down the road.

    @Logan H, Prescott vs Flagstaff is an interesting thought, and honestly, you might be right. More wards in the two Prescott stakes (15 vs 11 for the two Flagstaff stakes by my count), closer to Cottonwood Stake and probably Payson Stake as well. Flagstaff gains you Winslow Stake and Tuba City Stake, but you might lose Payson to the Snowflake temple district. So 6-7 stakes as a likely temple district. Prescott would also be advantageous if growth in Phoenix continues north, it could serve as a reliever for the Phoenix (Glendale) temple. Gila Valley has 6 stakes assigned at the moment, though if you ask me, the St. David Stake should be assigned to Tucson temple. The biggest question I have (as a non-resident) is, beyond how winter driving would affect the situation, how overloaded is the Snowflake temple with 13 stakes. You'd get more relief on Snowflake by building in Flagstaff vs Prescott. It'll be interesting to see how things factor in.

    EP said...

    Farmington, NM is a good bet in the next several years. It's an isolated area that could serve a similar size district to Flagstaff/Prescott with Kirtland, Farmington, Bloomfield, and Gallup, NM stakes with Chinle, AZ and Durango, CO (which I could eventually see splitting into a Durango stake and Cortez stake). I also could see Grand Junction, CO eventually taking a small temple to serve the two Grand Junction stakes, Rifle, and Montrose. The only thing is that would leave Monticello with only Moab, Blanding, and Monticello stakes, and even though Monticello is a very small temple, I don't know that the Church would be ready to take its temple district down to three stakes. Then again, Star Valley could shortly be in the same situation if/when Preston is announced.

    Rhode Island is probably the last state to get a temple due to its size and activity rates, but I think there will be a temple someday in all 50 states.

    I also think we'll see Spanish Fork announced before Provo goes under the renovation scalpel, but it will happen eventually. I expect though that it will be a couple years before Spanish Fork is announced while the Church spreads the wealth around the rest of Utah so to speak, since both Orem and Lindon were just announced within the last year or so.

    Unknown said...

    As I served in Northern Utah/South Idaho/West Wyoming as a missionary many years ago, I can see Evanston/WY or Smithfield/UT (more likely) getting a temple in the near future. I am almost certain that a temple is overdue in Belo Horizonte and Ribeirão Preto, Brazil, although a temple in southwestern Brazil (Foz do Iguaçu or Chapecó)/eastern Paraguay (Tríplice Fronteira)/northeastern Entre Rios/Argentina would greatly benefit member that might find cheaper to navigate the Parana river to get to the temple.
    The state of São Paulo will get at least 3 other temples in the next 10 years: Ribeirão Preto and Santos (more likely) and Sorocaba/São José do Rio Preto (less likely).

    Unknown said...

    As I served in Northern Utah/South Idaho/West Wyoming as a missionary many years ago, I can see Evanston/WY or Smithfield/UT (more likely) getting a temple in the near future. I am almost certain that a temple is overdue in Belo Horizonte and Ribeirão Preto, Brazil, although a temple in southwestern Brazil (Foz do Iguaçu or Chapecó)/eastern Paraguay (Tríplice Fronteira)/northeastern Entre Rios/Argentina would greatly benefit member that might find cheaper to navigate the Parana river to get to the temple.
    The state of São Paulo will get at least 3 other temples in the next 10 years: Ribeirão Preto and Santos (more likely) and Sorocaba/São José do Rio Preto (less likely).

    Unknown said...

    Another wild guess...
    Many stake center designs would easily allow for a "nano temple", to perform living ordinances only. An annex to stake offices where couples and convert families could have initiatories, endowments and sealings performed at the same day. The stake patriarch would also preside over this ordinance section of the stake center building.

    Why not?

    Nate said...

    After compiling the lists of anticipated temples, the most highly expected location for a temple announcement is in Mongolia. This makes sense as it ranks as #5 in Matt's list of countries with the most members and no temple.

    You can again access the matrix of all lists at: https://sites.google.com/view/templematrix. If you would like your list included please submit to the email listed at the bottom of the site.

    EP said...

    @Nate can you please add Rexburg #2 to my list? I can't edit the comment, but having heard some very interesting rumors from some very reputable sources, I strongly believe Rexburg #2 will be announced this conference now.

    EP said...

    @Unknown, interesting theory. I read a rumor on Reddit that the Church may be working on prefabricated interiors resembling temple rooms, and I can't help but wonder if something like that combined with your guess might be closer than we suspect.

    L. Chris Jones said...

    Page AZ is part of St George UT district but could also go Flagstaff when a temple is built there.

    Nate said...

    @EP - Thanks for the addition, I made the update for you!

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @Anonymous

    You're probably right.

    I'm hoping for a Springville one - I've got some family history in that town.

    twinnumerouno said...

    Johnathan:

    I have ancestors on both sides of my family, the Nielsen/Nielsons and the Tews, that are buried in Springville in Evergreen Cemetery. Was it the Whitings who lived there? My Nielsen ancestors came over from Denmark in 1862 (and then changed the spelling of their name to Nielson), and there was a daughter named Sadie Nielson, my great-great grandfather's sister, who married a man named Whiting.

    twinnumerouno said...

    Ottawa is not a bad pick as far as Canadian temples go, though it is only about 2 hours from Montreal (I served in the Montreal mission in the 90s, including 6 or 7 months in Ottawa. My last area was in the town where the Montreal temple was later built, and it was a thrill one time to go back and see it.)

    There aren't a lot of obvious temple locations in Canada that I foresee anytime soon, but I could see another in British Columbia or a 4th in Alberta. Less likely is a small one in New Brunswick, which would probably be justified in terms of distance but would serve only the Saint John New Brunswick stake (which, when I lived in Maine and was in the stake, also included the branches on Prince Edward Island). If I'm not mistaken, this would also leave Halifax with only 1 stake. I suspect a temple for Maine would come before New Brunswick though.

    Isaac Rebouças said...

    Hello, i'm isaac, im from brasil
    My list
    La Plata, Argentina
    Santa Maria/ Belo Horizonte, Brasil
    Abuja, Nigeria
    North Salt Lake, Utah
    Port of Spain, Trindad & Tobago
    Oslo, Norway
    Vilnius, Lithuania
    Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
    Busan, South Korea
    Noumea, New Caledonia.

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @Francesca

    I appreciate you explaining the NIMBY acronym to me and providing details and your views on it. I think assigning the phenomenon to a particular race in general, however, can come across as stereotyping or prejudiced. From how you described it, it does seem more tied to economic class than a matter of race.

    As @Daniel Moretti said above (and as a current resident of Utah), I would be interested in hearing about your research into the urban development or suburbanization of Utah.

    @John Pack Lambert:

    I hadn't heard about the incident you cited above. Would you mind elaborating on the Sterling Heights happenstance?

    Whizzbang said...

    I live in Canada and I would be totally gobsmacked if they built another here, they just aren't used. Toronto is difficult to get to, it's in Brampton even.

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @Wisconsinite

    Interesting ideas on the 200 mile radius aspect. It will be interesting to see if some of those gaps are filled this conference.

    The recent announcements from the Prophet seem to be aimed at cutting down on some of the longer travel distances - particularly as far as membership on isolated islands are concerned.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    No rule of thumb. The Church had the Detroit Temple site roughly 45 years before announcing that temple. Yet that plot was not for sure the location of the temple in the first explorations. Other times temples are announced before a site has been selected.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    Travel time can also be variable. What time you leave will affect arrival in some metro area. I also would point out that 2 hours is too long for reasonable evening attendance.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    Ikot Eyo. That is the village where the widely distributed picture of about 100 people lined up to be baptized comes from. That was not the first baptism there. The two brethren standing by the sides of the line were baptized a week or two earlier and were witnesses. There is a marker at that location and a stake headquartered in the village. The state of Nigeria it is in has 12 stakes and no temple. The Aba Temple is in neighboring Abia State and close to where Abia, Akwa Ibom (where Ikot Eyo is) and Rivers states intersect. There are at least 23 stakes in these 3 states, and at least 30 stakes maybe more will remain in Aba Nigeria Temple district when Benin and Lagos temples are complete. Yet Aba temple is only 12,000 square feet. Plus in part of Akwa Ibom state dirt roads and other factors make travel very slow.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    Hong Kong is being renovated so the whole building will be a temple. However I see your point. I believe in the Fukuoka Temple the temple president's residence is structurally part of the temple building.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    Maine is the only state with no temple in a bordering state.

    Iowa has 2 temples in cities on the border. Mississippi has a temple just north of it in a state with 2. New Jersey also has 2 temples in cities that border it. Kansas has a temple in a city that borders it, but that is a sprawling city.

    Wisconsin, Kansas, Maine and South Dakota may be the 4 most likely to get temples soon.

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @EP

    I agree with you that if the Church ever re-acquires the Kirtland Temple they would probably keep it as a historical landmark. I can see them building a modern temple somewhere else in Kirtland, or possibly (if they were able to get enough of the surrounding property) build a modern one next to the original. That would make for an interesting and unique temple campus, I think!

    Anonymous said...

    Wouldn’t it be enlightening to view a world temples map by driving distance or other modes of transportation? Looks like the technology is available: https://traveltime.com/blog/google-maps-drive-time-polygon-tutorial-driving-radius

    L. Chris Jones said...

    St. Paul MN temple is relatively close the Wisconsin border.

    Fredrick said...

    Here's my predictins:

    1. Spanish Fork / Springville, UT
    2. El Paso, Texas
    3. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
    4. Vina Del Mar, Chile
    5. Iquitos, Peru
    6. Monrovia, Liberia
    7. Marshall Islands
    8. Missoula, Montana

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @twinnumerouno

    Yes, my great-great grandfather, Edwin Whiting, and his family helped found the area of Springville/Mapleton. If you're familiar with the area, the Springville Museum of Art is located where my ancestors' homestead used to be.

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @twinnumerouno

    So, you got me curious, and I did a little digging and it looks like Sadie Nielson's husband, Albert Milton Whiting Jr., is my first cousin twice removed! Which means you and I would be distant cousins-in law (if such a thing is a thing). Small world. :)


    I used the following for my research. You might want to check if it's the right person:

    https://uvu.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/Mapleton/id/958/

    https://www.familysearch.org/tree/person/vitals/KWCH-YNX

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @Whizzbang

    My 2nd to last mission companion was from London, Ontario (this was back in 2004). He commented on how the Toronto Temple was underused back then. Any theories as to why the Canadian temples aren't better utilized? Is it the distance?

    Speaking of Canada, my family and I are planning to move to Northern Montana this summer, so Cardston will be our assigned temple. I'm looking forward to doing some work there if and when I get the chance (might have to get a passport and wait for the pandemic to die down, though).

    This is another reason I'm hoping for a Missoula Temple, though. Won't have to hassle with border crossing.

    Cory said...

    Thanks for pointing out that mapping website, I did some mapping of the US and a few other countries that the software supports. You can only map three locations at a time with the online demo. So I mapped out some two mile radii in the United states and a few other countries that support the software. I named each image the name of a city that exists in the two hour driving distance gap.

    https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1kABoUg7-x3FeHz_JZNJrIqhFNKKmwpiC?usp=sharing

    Christopher Duerig said...

    @Anonymous, here is my shared google drive Driving/Flight .kml Google Earth Temple to Stake/District Centers maps. They can be uploaded to the web version or desktop version of Google Earth as Projects.

    https://earth.google.com/web/

    3rd Quorum - Africa Central/South/West

    https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/11_j82g1jq_n1V4WlGFx8JRGXyn2UeJ_a

    4th Quorum - Asia/North

    https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/11CHQ_WLEwSRIrng3xwsFGrdGfE4N1wf7

    5th Quorum - Brazil
    6th Quorum - Caribbean/Central America/Mexico
    9th Quorum - South America Northwest/South

    https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1czu5jo3JiCi6gSjieetASdjg_lq9xiNn

    7th Quorum - Europe/East/Middle East/Africa North

    https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1sz612G33HteUjmXxv0OccMr3SYtU-ARC

    8th Quorum - Pacific/Philippines

    https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1TL46H8T_uw2lr83uhIZbGHP-je8-4Q0j

    10th Quorum - North America Central/NE/SE
    11th Quorum - North America SW/West
    12th Quorum - Utah

    https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Ls_aHaaNZbV51i65C3-llbI3fFkpgtDX

    My version of combined "Future Temples"

    https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1OmattNn5EgObz1kwkXR310hNVYCfh_ih

    or, all 22 Church Areas as a whole,

    https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1e-1M3oR0-CSKacsaM7bE2fO_d-2aQ8vw

    I hope this is hopeful. Let me know by email chrisduerig@hotmail.com if you are having difficulty downloading or uploading these .kml files.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    That may be true, but most of Wisconsin's population is assigned to the Chicago Temple. Also, this is nothing like Iowa where there are 2 temples less than 5 miles from the border. Both in cities that literally extend to the border. The same numbers hold for New Jersey, although due to involving huge metro areas New Jersey may involve bigger travel times from the near temple areas. On the other hand Iowa is bigger than New Jersey, so putting a temple in Ames or Des Moines might happen sooner than East Brunswick or Morristown.

    Logan H said...

    I wonder if the Bridger Valley in Wyoming between Evanston and Rock Springs could get a Temple instead of Evanston. It would be under an hour drive for most of the two Evanston stakes, Kemmerer, Green River, and Rock Spring. It would serve 6 stakes taking Kemmerer from Star Valley, Evanston from Ogden, and Green River and Rock Springs from Vernal.
    I think this could be possible because Tallahassee, FL with one stake was announced instead of Jacksonville or Pensacola; I'm guessing because it was central like the Bridger Valley is for south west Wyoming.
    On my list I'm going to change Evanston to Evanston/Bridger Valley, WY and Flagstaff to Flagstaff/Prescott, AZ.

    Logan H said...

    It looks like both Evanston and Lyman (Bridger Valley) Wyoming have potential places where a Temple could be built, so that criteria doesn't make one more likely than the other.
    I think Evanston could get a Temple at 315 Elm St, Evanston, WY 82930 and Lyman could get a Temple at 208 WY-414, Lyman, WY 82937.

    Logan H said...

    It looks like both Evanston and Lyman (Bridger Valley) Wyoming have potential places where a Temple could be built, so that criteria doesn't make one more likely than the other.
    I think Evanston could get a Temple at 315 Elm St, Evanston, WY 82930 and Lyman could get a Temple at 208 WY-414, Lyman, WY 82937.

    Logan H said...

    It looks like both Evanston and Lyman (Bridger Valley) Wyoming have potential places where a Temple could be built, so that criteria doesn't make one more likely than the other.
    I think Evanston could get a Temple at 315 Elm St, Evanston, WY 82930 and the Bridger Valley could get a Temple at 208 WY-414, Lyman, WY 82937.

    coachodeeps said...

    20 temples! Yippee!

    John Pack Lambert said...

    Of course you assume that Talahasee getting a temple means Jacksonville won't. I am unconvinced. Mindanao getting a temple, Mendoza announced a conference after Salta, Syracuse soon after Layton and Lindon a conference after Orem all make me unconvinced Talahasee getting a temple means that Jacksonville won't.

    Logan H said...

    I think Jacksonville is still likely to get a Temple. I agree Tahahasee getting a Temple does not mean Jacksonville won't. Tallahassee was just the closest example I could think of for a central, small or outlying place that may be overlooked because there are other places around that seem more likely to get a Temple first (Evanston or Rock Springs like Jacksonville and Pensacola). I guess they don't compare well.

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    Hey, I predicted 9 out of the 20! (if you count Missoula as the Montana announcement, rather than Helena).

    With such a long list announced, it looks like a lot of us got at least a few right (or close).

    Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

    @Nancy

    Hey, you were right! He announced 20. :l

    John G said...

    I'm curious how much (if any) the Casper Temple announcement will lessen the likelihood of a temple in Evanston?

    Logan H said...

    I don't think it lessens the likelihood of an Evanston or evan a Rock Springs Temple at all as they are to distant from Casper compared to where they are already assigned.

    I'm curious if it will be Evanston that gets a Temple next. I think the next place in Wyoming to get a Temple is the southwest part of the state. While Evanston seems the most obvious I also wonder about Lyman or Rock Springs getting a Temple first.

    John Pack Lambert said...

    I think Casper has zero impact on Evanston getting a temple. In the late 1990s we saw Tennessee with its two temples both in process at once, and the same for New York. Mexico I think got to a point where for a short time it had 1 operating temples and 11 announced. Australia had 1 operating and 4 announced. Canada 2 operating and 4 announced.

    Salts did not prevent Mendoza being announced, and Mindanao has 2 announced temples and zero operating.

    For the same reasons Santa Cruz does not lessen the likelihood of La Paz, Bolivia having a 5emple announced.