I have updated my temple prediction map in preparation for General Conference in October. It is unclear whether or not the Church will announce additional temples this coming conference given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the suspension of proxy ordinance work for deceased persons. Nevertheless, the Church may announce new temples this conference given the steady trend in new temple announcements that has continued for several years. As a result, I have updated my list of the top 10 most likely locations to have a temple announced.
Data used to identify probable locations for future
temples include the size of the Church in a specific geographical area
(i.e. number of stakes and districts, the number of wards and branches),
the age of the oldest stake in a specific geographical area, church
growth trends, distance to the nearest temple, number of endowment
sessions scheduled at the nearest temple, and member and missionary
reports regarding member activity, temple attendance, and convert
retention. In September 2019,
I divided prospective temple sites into more likely and less likely
categories. This change appeared warranted given recent trends of temple
announcements in remote areas of the world with few relatively
Latter-day Saints, such as Tallahassee, Florida; Cobán, Guatemala; Budapest, Hungary; and
Okinawa, Japan, that appear less likely to receive temple announcements
given historical trends. Altogether, there are 131 potential
temples on the map (40 more like temples, 91 less likely temples).
Locations added to the temple prediction map include:
- Noumea, New Caledonia (less likely)
- East London, South Africa (less likely)
- Santa Cruz, Bolivia
- Monrovia, Liberia
- Angeles or Olongapo, Philippines
- Tarawa, Kiribati
- Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
- Missoula, Montana
- Colorado Springs, Colorado
- Santiago or Tuguegarao, Philippines
- Charlotte, North Carolina
- Mbuji-Mayi, Democratic Republic of the Congo
See below for the map of likely and less likely new temple sites:
84 comments:
Matt, thanks for posting this today. Hope you and your family are staying well in the midst of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, especially with the recent birth of your son. Keep up the great work! As for my list, I'd be hard-pressed to narrow it down to the top ten, but as I mentioned in the comment threads of the previous post, earlier today, I published my full list of likely temple prospects that could be announced. Anyone interested in dialoguing with me on any of those locations or the reasoning behind them can do so by consulting the predictions and commenting in the threads of the following post:
https://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com/2020/09/updated-october-2020-general-conference.html
As far as the idea that President Nelson might not announce any temples this go-round due to ongoing COVID-19 conditions, while there is precedent for a hiatus, as we have seen at least one during the last decade, President Nelson has shown a keen focus on announcing new temples, and the queue of announced temples has tapered down a lot so far this year, and will continue to do so before the end of this year.
In the April 2020 General Conference, when announcing new temples, President Nelson stated: "It may seem odd to announce new temples when all our temples are closed for a while. More than a century ago, President Wilford Woodruff foresaw conditions such as ours today, as recorded in his dedicatory prayer of the Salt Lake Temple, given in 1893. Some of you may have recently seen excerpts from this remarkable prayer on social media.
"Hear these pleadings from a mighty prophet of God: 'When Thy people shall not have the opportunity of entering this holy house … and they are oppressed and in trouble, surrounded by difficulties … and shall turn their faces towards this Thy holy house and ask Thee for deliverance, for help, for Thy power to be extended in their behalf, we beseech Thee, to look down from Thy holy habitation in mercy … and listen to their cries. Or when the children of Thy people, in years to come, shall be separated, through any cause, from this place, … and they shall cry unto Thee from the depths of their affliction and sorrow to extend relief and deliverance to them, we humbly entreat Thee to … hearken to their cries, and grant unto them the blessings for which they ask.'
"Brothers and sisters, during times of our distress when temples are closed, you can still draw upon the power of your temple covenants and endowment as you honor your covenants. Please use this time when temples are closed to continue to live a temple-worthy life or to become temple worthy."
Since the prophet offered those remarks last General Conference, the Church has begun a carefully-coordinated phased reopening of temples, and groundbreakings have been held for 7 temples thus far this year, with a total of 6 others set to occur at various intervals following the October 2020 General Conference. With that in mind, I have no doubt that more temples are on the way and will be announced next month in General Conference.
Either way, thanks to you all for bearing with me through this comment, and thanks especially to you, Matt, for this update on your blog and for sharing your thoughts with us. Please keep up the great work!
My list has
A second temple in the Las Vegas Area either Henderson or Summerlin
Bakersfield, California
Glasgow, Scotland
Jacksonville, Florida
Fort Worth, Texas
Osaka, Japan
Baltimore, Maryland
San Jose, California
Matt, I might recommend adding PRINCE GEORGE BRITISH COLUMBIA, with possibly 1 Stake (Prince George B.C.) + 1 District (Terrace B.C.). To be added as Less Likely Candidate site due to remote distance and winter travelling to next closest temples in Anchorage Alaska (1,718.6 mi or 33 hours driving) or Vancouver B.C. (464.4 mi or 8 hours driving).
I have considered Prince George, British Columbia, but I think this is unlikely given that it is a pretty small stake without a core of active members in a small urban area. Small temples recently announced usually have a least 3-4 wards in the city where the new temple is announced, whereas Prince George has only two and no more than 300 active members per RM report and local member reports five years ago. Vanderhoof does have two wards, but it is 60 some miles away. Seems like things are a bit too spread out and with too few members to warrant a temple yet. Fairbanks, Alaska seems like a much more like contender for cities with one stake that are far from the nearest temple. Fairbanks has nine wards and one branch within the immediate city and suburbs.
I live in Canada, I can't imagine another Canadian temple being announced for quite awhile. My temple, Winnipeg, is on hiatus for now anyways.
my picks
Ireland
Scotland
Milwaukee
Peru somewhere
Southern Chile or Southern Argentina
Mongolia
Bolivia somewhere, Sucre? Santa Cruz? La Paz?
I’m guessing the church relied on members being able to cross the U. S. Border to attend in Mexico or Canada when deciding which stakes to assign to respective temples. With leisure travel across borders being restricted for the foreseeable future. I’ll guess El Paso, Texas and Burlington, Vermont
Sharon, Vermont - Joseph Smith’s birthplace
Does anyone have news about the Nairobi and Harare temples? Nothing new has been posted about them on Rick's site for some time.
Temples in third world countries can be delayed by bureaucracy, corruption, and outright opposition in the government even if no apparent legal reason prevents them from being built. A book by Elder Glenn L. Pace documents a lot of this happening behind the scenes with the Accra Ghana Temple that most people would never know about. I'm just guessing this is also the case with the two East African temples. Kenya in particular has a very negative view of the Church, with many people thinking we're literal devil worshipers who sacrifice chickens and dance naked around fires.
My guess in the Northeast would include either Vermont, New Hampshire or Maine. I have hoped for an historic temple in Sharon, but it is far from the nearest stake. So other locations may appear more likely based on travel distance and maximum use for the most number of members.
There is a landscape architect that has posted on his website a rendering of the Harare Zimbabwe Temple and the site plan. Rick can't post it on his site because of intellectual property protection. It looks like the floor plan for the Praia Cape Verde Temple. It will be interesting to see if the final rendering includes an angel Moroni like it does in this rendering:
https://www.scottallreddesign.com/harare-zimbabwe-temple-site
My picks:
Santa Cruz
Belo Horizonte
Iquitos
Punta Arenas
Charlotte
Antananarivo
Ulaanbaatar
Oslo
I think that Kiribati is slowly being submerged into the ocean, I had heard maybe 100 years it will be gone or if not they'll have to re do things. I think it would be great to get a temple there if not for the erosion
Africa:
Capetown, SA; SE Nigeria
Asia:
Osaka, Japan; Leyte Island or Southern Luzon Philippines; Singapore; Tarawa
Europe:
(Longshots) Scotland and Oslo, Nwy.
South America:
Santa Cruz or La Paz, Bolivia; Iquitos or Cusco, Peru; (Longshots) Cali, Colombia or Maracaibo, Vza
North America:
El Paso, Tx; Elko, NV; Colorado Springs, CO; (Longshots) Durango, Mx; Charlotte, NC; Missoula, MT; Fairbanks, AK
The most exciting, at least for me, of each conference are the announcements of new temples.
In these difficult times that we live, they provide much more encouragement and strength.
As a Chilean I would love to see temples announced in cities as distant as: Viña del Mar, Valdivia and Punta arenas, and I say this because of the amount of stake, districts and existing fidelity.
-Bolivia, at least 2 more temples or in Santa Cruz
-Colombia in Calí and Medellín, although there is potential for another city
-Venezuela at least in Maracaibo
-Jamaica or nearby islands
In Africa, Asia, Oceania and Europe at least 10 more temples thinking of the great distances that there are without a temple.
It is beautiful to dream, it has already been seen that the Church builds temples on more than one occasion with few stakes, it is the case of Alaska and the not yet dedicated temple of Canada among others.
Imo, while growth has been slow to stagnant in a few parts- Montana should get a second temple in Missoula; they and northern Idaho need it.
I've been coming up with my temple announcement predictions, and thought I would share something I do that may be of interest to others making predictions. In an effort to calibrate the accuracy of my temple announcement predictions, I award myself 1/n points (where n is the number of temples I predict) for temples that are announced which I predicted, and penalize myself 1/n points for temples that I either did not predict or for ones I predicted which are not announced. When added up, the closer they are to 1 the better my predictive accuracy. If they sum to 0, that means I got things right as often as I got them wrong. Anything below 0 means I was wrong more than I was right. I like this system as it prevents me from just throwing everywhere with a stake into my predictions and helps me to see how well my predictive ability does over time.
My predictions for this conference are:
Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia
Torreon, Mexico or Chihuahua, Mexico (but not both)
Kampala, Uganda
Tacoma, Washington
Tacloban, Philippines
Sao Paulo, Brazil II
I accidentally left Tarawa, Kirbati off my prediction list I just posted -- that one should be on there as well.
Is there any indication that members increase activity once a temple has been announced, built, and opened in their area? What about public interest and converts? I've always assumed that a new temple is a great PR opportunity for the Church and great for finding new investigators, but I've never lived in an area where a new temple has been built.
@Francesca- I haven't seen an uptick in new converts but we have new move ins, but I don't know if more or less than when we didn't have a temple coming. I think it may prevent people from leaving? I don't know for sure though. I don't know if converts would appreciate a temple coming here. Mind you covid has blown up everything so it's hard to tell
@Christopher Nicholson
I didn't know that about the Ghana temple opposition. Perhaps that explains the delay with the Church announcing a 2nd temple for that country.
Chris, while Matt already weighed in on your suggestion to him, a while ago, someone living in Victoria British Columbia mentioned on my blog that, to get to the Vancouver temple requires an arduous journey. My research on that prospect indicates that those Saints in that location experience undue hardship thereby, making that location one of the next (if not very next) Canadian cities to have a temple announced. That said, I understand why Matt, and perhaps others, have chosen not to include it.
"Third world" nations has fallen out of vogue. Now most economists or social scientists refer to them as "developing" nations.
Hate to say it, but does anyone think that God is chastising some people with fires and plagues?
Is anyone complaining that the Church has too much money anymore? People are quite ignorant and spoiled, in my opinion. Inside the Church too, but tithe payers are usually more humble. Sounds arrogant to say that, but it is true. Put your money where your mouth is.
Vancouver island has , I believe, a stake and a district. They are very small though. Then again, the Winnipeg Temple has significantly less than 1000 members endowed with a recommend.
I anticipate another set of 8 new temples announced this conference, following the number from the previous 3 conferences. My list of 8 is a mix of top picks from previous years along with some other remote area temples I think could be announced in the near future. In no particular order:
Santa Cruz, Bolivia
Punta Arenas, Chile
Missoula, Montana
Rapid City, South Dakota
El Paso, Texas
Antananarivo, Madagascar
Oslo, Norway
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Some other thoughts:
-If another Utah temple is announced, I'm going to guess somewhere outside the Wasatch Front in either Delta, Price, or Smithfield.
-It's been two years since a new temple has been announced for Brazil or Mexico so I think a new announcement in those countries may be likely soon.
My guesses for Brazil: Belo Horizonte, Ribeirão Preto, or São Paulo Area #2
For Mexico: Torreón OR Durango, Querétaro, or Cancún
Almost always the people hurt the most by natural disasters and plagues are in the most humble, God-fearing regions of the world. East Africa is dealing with locusts and floods in addition to Covid, and when the people are under lockdown and can't go to the store even if they had money, they get next to no government assistance. If this has anything to do with God, the United States (and not just California) should be getting hit far harder than they are.
With the establishment of the new Sheridan, Wyoming Stake, the remaining portions of the Gillette WY Stake would be closer to either a Casper, WY or Rapid City, SD temple.
Also Lowell and Powell and Cody WY side of the Bighorn Mountains would benefit greatly from a temple.
Casper, WY has church historical significance as a ferry crossing on the Mormon Trail, and its proximity to Martin's Cove.
Lowell and Powell have significance as early pioneer settlements, and Cody has the famous chapel panorama depicting pioneer heritage.
Rapid City has one of the farthest travel requirements for temple attendance in the US, and is especially onerous during the winter. Rapid City has always provided a significant number of temple workers to the far-away Bismarck, ND temple.
Here are my top 10 picks (in no order). These are not the temples that I think are most likely, but the ones that I think are both possible and find interesting.
Ulaanbaatar Mongolia (first in this country and gets temples closer to parts of China and Russia)
Antananarivo, Madagascar (first in this country and island and Africa could use more temples)
Glasgow or Edinburgh Scotland (Or Dublin, Ireland / Belfast, North Ireland) – The first in Scotland, North Ireland, or Ireland. I think Scotland is much more likely, but the Ireland picks would provide a temple on the island of Ireland.
Jakarta Indonesia/Singapore (first in these countries)
Monrovia, Liberia (first in this country and Africa could always use more temples)
Kampala, Uganda (first in this country, and east Africa could always use more temples)
Christchurch New Zealand (first on this island)
Tacloban City/Ormoc or Iloilo City Philippines (first on each of these islands, and The Philippines has so many members it could easily have more temples)
Eugene Oregon (I always think having temples in cities with colleges is good as it provides opportunities for younger members to regularly attend)
Price, Utah (I think this is the only college town in Utah not to have a temple nearby)
Where can we see your predictions and the results of your prediction rates?
Now that the UEA is formalizing a relationship with Israel, could they become part of the new Dubai temple district when it is completed?
-My Picks for Likely Temples (Based on Growth & Other Factors (but mostly on Stakes/Districts) - Top 10
Santiago/Tuguegarao, Luzon (10 Stakes, 10 Districts) or Angeles/Olongapo (13 Stakes) Philippines
Tarawa, Kiribati (4 Stakes, 3 Districts)
Belo Horizonte, Brazil (10 Stakes, 6 Districts)
Iquitos, Peru (4 Stakes, 2 Districts)
Herriman, Utah (15 Stakes)
Antananarivo, Madagascar (2 Stakes, 5 Districts)
Kampala, Uganda (3 Stakes, 4 Districts)
Bakersfield, California (6 Stakes)
Beira (2 Stakes, 2 Districts) or Maputo (2 Stakes, 1 District), Mozambique
Kumasi, Ghana (3 Stakes, 6 Districts) or Cape Coast, Ghana (6 Stakes, 3 Districts)
Extras:
Ribeirão Preto, Brazil (11 Stakes)
Colorado Springs, Colorado (9 Stakes)
Santa Cruz, Bolivia (12 Stakes, 4 Districts) or La Paz, Bolivia (9 Stakes, 1 District)
Spanish Fork, UT (21 Stakes)
-My Top 10 Picks for Extremely Far Distance Temples (simplified)
(all distances are in a straight line - as the crow flies - unless otherwise indicated)
1. Punta Arenas, Chile
-(2 Stakes, 1 District) (Assigned to Concepción Chile)
-Concepción to Punta Arenas is 1823 km (1133 miles).
-Punta Arenas to Bahia Blanca is 1736 km (1078 miles).
2. Rapid City, South Dakota
-(2 Stakes) (Assigned to Bismarck, North Dakota)
-Rapid City to Bismarck is 224 miles.
-259.36 miles from Fort Collins to Rapid City.
3. La Paz, Baja California Sur, MX
-(2 Stakes) (Assigned to Tijuana Mexico)
-La Paz, Mexico to Hermosillo, Mexico is: 340 miles / 547 km flying.
-La Paz, Baja California Sur to Guadalajara, Jalisco is 809 km (503 miles).
-Tijuana from La Paz (Mexico): Flight distance is 706 miles.
4. Juneau or Fairbanks, Alaska
-(1 Stake Apiece, Both Assigned to Anchorage Alaska)
-Fairbanks from Anchorage: Nonstop drive: 359 miles or 578 km. Driving time: 6 hours, 7 minutes.
-Anchorage from Juneau: Nonstop drive: 849 miles or 1366 km. Driving time: 20 hours.
5. Kiribati (4 Stakes, 3 Districts) or Vanuatu (2 Stakes, 4 Districts)
-(Both Assigned to Suva, Fiji)
-Fiji to Kiribati is 1,953 kilometers (1,214 miles).
-Port-Vila, Vanuatu to Suva, Fiji is 1071 kilometers (666 miles).
6. New Delhi, India
-(1 stake, 3 districts) (Assigned to Hong Kong)
-Bangalore to New Delhi (flying) is 1058 miles / 1703 kilometers.
7. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
-(2 stakes, 3 districts) (Assigned to Hong Kong)
-1,239 Miles (1,994 Kilometer) Ulan Bator (Mongolia) to Seoul (South Korea)
-Ulan Bator to Hong Kong (flying) is 1804 miles / 2904 kilometers.
8. Canary Islands, Spain
-(1 stake, 2 districts) (Assigned to Madrid, Spain)
-Cape-Verde to Las-Palmas-De-Gran-Canaria: 1,001.25 mi (1,611.36 km).
-Lisbon to Canary Islands is 2 hours 9 minutes. A distance of 839 miles / 1,351 km.
-(bird fly) Canary Islands to Madrid is 1,791 km= 1,113 miles.
9. Antananarivo, Madagascar
-(2 stakes, 5 districts) (Assigned to Johannesburg, South Africa)
-Antananarivo, Madagascar to Harare, Zimbabwe is 1,745 kilometers (1,085 miles).
-(air line) Johannesburg to Madagascar is 1,277.29 mi (2,055.60 km).
-(air line) Madagascar to Durban is 1,208.88 mi (1,945.51 km).
10. Capetown, South Africa
-(3 stakes, 1 district) (Assigned to Johannesburg, South Africa)
-Cape Town to Johannesburg is 1262 kilometers (784 miles) in South Africa.
-Capetown to Durban: 17 h 30 min (1,635.2 km).
OR
-The calculated flying distance from Cape Town to Durban is equal to 790 miles which is equal to 1272 km. If you want to go by car, the driving distance between Cape Town and Durban is 1636.31 km. If you ride your car with an average speed of 112 kilometers/hour (70 miles/h), travel time will be 14 hours 36 minutes.
*In no particular order.
Temple Map Showing Eyeball Distances:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1W60CDwd4qDDMA3tW74z8g-2WxNw&ll=-3.81666561775622e-14%2C0&z=1
-My Personal Picks (Whittled Down) - Top 10 + Extras
(some may be likely, others are just ones I'd like to see or have a personal connection to)
1. Missoula, Montana (8 Stakes)
2. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia (2 Stakes, 3 Districts)
3. Pleasant View/North Ogden, Utah (7 Stakes at least)
4. Heber City, Utah (8 Stakes)
5. Price, Utah (8 Stakes)
6. Barcelona, Spain (3 Stakes)
7. Monrovia, Liberia (5 Stakes, 1 Districts)
8. Charlotte, North Carolina (8 Stakes)
9. Singapore (3 Stakes, 7 Districts)
10. Osaka, Japan (9 Stakes, 3 Districts)
Some Extras for the Future:
Spanish Fork, Utah (21 Stakes)
Tirana, Albânia (1 Stakes, 1 District)
Macon, Georgia (a few Stakes at least)
Lexington, KY (4 Stakes)
Jakarta, Indonesia (2 Stakes, 1 District)
Springville/Mapleton, UT (11 Stakes at least)
Vilnius, Lithuania (3 Districts in the Baltic States, 1 in Poland, 1 in Belarus)
My numbers didn't post for my likely list. Here they are:
1. Santiago/Tuguegarao, Luzon, Philippines
(10 Stakes, 10 Districts)
or
Angeles/Olongapo, Philippines
(13 Stakes)
2. Tarawa, Kiribati
(4 Stakes, 3 Districts)
3. Belo Horizonte, Brazil
(10 Stakes, 6 Districts)
4. Iquitos, Peru
(4 Stakes, 2 Districts)
5. Herriman, Utah
(15 Stakes)
6. Antananarivo, Madagascar
(2 Stakes, 5 Districts)
7. Kampala, Uganda
(3 Stakes, 4 Districts)
8. Bakersfield, California
(6 Stakes)
9. Beira, Mozambique
(2 Stakes, 2 Districts)
or
Maputo, Mozambique
(2 Stakes, 1 District)
10. Kumasi, Ghana
(3 Stakes, 6 Districts)
or Cape Coast, Ghana
(6 Stakes, 3 Districts)
Extras:
Ribeirão Preto, Brazil (11 Stakes)
Colorado Springs, Colorado (9 Stakes)
Santa Cruz, Bolivia (12 Stakes, 4 Districts) or La Paz, Bolivia (9 Stakes, 1 District)
Spanish Fork, UT (21 Stakes)
Sptingville proposal covers half the area of the Provo City Center temple district which includes some stakes on its north end that may end up in Orem, especially those on the top of Grandview Hill and north of Provo Center Street (U-114). Those are needed for more steady temple workers, some get called from the BYU YSA stakes but they may end up moving out of the district at the very next semester change.
Spanish Fork: Payson is about the largest new temple built in recent years, one that could support 40 stakes unless everyone that could go does go more frequently. The only other temple anywhere near that size is Saratoga Springs and they did that to accomodate expected growth in both areas. But that could change if, after the full reopenings, everyone goes more often than they did before.
Heber Valley has over 40k people and unlike Price, is primed for growth. However, both have travel issues at times. US 6 is becoming known for major car and truck accidents, a load of explosives blew a crater in the road 15 years ago, and Heber City has to deal with winter conditions on US-189 at times. It still is conceivable they both could get smaller temples, with Heber Valle getting one a little larger.
They are placing temples 5-7 miles apart in Salt Lake Valley and the metro in general, especially more densely populaed areas. Holladay or Midvale, or even north Sandy, could see one east of Highland Drive. NW Lehi just above all the new tech buildings is another. Herriman is also similarly spaced from Oquirrh Mountain and will also be near a new freeway that is planned and has the feeder roads built.
On the 5-mile spacing, it is almost exactly that between St. George and Red Cliffs, so the areas just north of St. George are likely for that third temple there.
My guesses:
US
1. Rapid City, SD
2. Bakersfield, CA
3. Missoula, MT
4. Martins Cove, WY (Casper)
5. Eugene, OR
6. Price, UT
7. Heber City, UT
8. Colorado Springs, CO
9. Charlotte, NC
10.Charleston, WV
International
1. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
2. Tarawa, Kiribati
3. Singapore
4. Naga, Phillipines
5. Osaka, Japan
6. Kanaga, DR Congo
7. Kampala, Uganda
8. Madagascar
9. Iquitos, Peru
10.João Pessoa, Brazil
11.Cancún, México
12.Maracaibo, Venezuela
13.Cuautla, México
14.Querétaro, México
15.Santa Cruz, Bolivia
I am curious if anyone knows of any incidences where a proper service animal did assist a disabled member in the temple? (Ive seen them at meetinghouses, but I haven't seen them at the temple -- although I do frequent the temple in my wheelchair). Was curious to know if the recent church policy regarding service animals impacts anyone you know personally?
https://www.thechurchnews.com/members/2020-09-15/service-animals-policy-church-meetinghouses-temples-192744
The refusal to pay bribes was key to the long delay of both the Bogota and the Guayaquil Temple.
Having a Kenyan as area president in Kenya cannot hurt the process of getting a temple built. Although the widespread existence of corruption in Kenya, Zimbabwe and other countries cannot be underplayed.
The film "heart of Africa" directed by Chrisopher Tsopher and based on a screen play by Tsopher and Margaret Blair Young shows us how to deal with this in an interesting film about a missionary for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in DR Congo. Tsopher is a Congolese film director who is a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. His work may be the first feature length film by a Congolese director period. If not the first probably among the first 10.
Do not underplay the amount that corruption is thought to influence the economies of poor countries and do not underplay how the Church's absolute refusal delays things.
What is the book by Elder Pace.
Do not undercount the possibility of Austin, Texas getting a temple.
The question is can we turn enough of the oil patch working Saints into temple workers if they loose South Dakota.
Rapid City temple would be a great blessing to the Sioux Nation.
Wait why is Spanish Fork not pick #1 with that many stakes?
@John Pack Lambert
My list isn't in particular order. And I was thinking that they might announce for somewhere else in Utah this time with the recent announcements for Utah Valley.
It is now 2 weeks until Conference.
Interested to see if we’ll have a steady cascade of near daily announcements/changes from the Church during the lead up to Conference.
Buckle up!
Whizzbang, one of my favorite seminary teachers had several sayings. One of them was "Who was right, Noah or the weather man?" I am hard pressed to believe that the predictions of fallible mortal scientists would deter the Lord, who sees the end from the beginning, from inspiring the prophet from announcing a temple that could easily be the means whereby that prediction could be proven as faulty as the ground allegedly is. No disrespect intended here, but given the recent trends of Nelsonian temple announcements, Kiribati could see a temple announced within the next 3 conferences, if not sooner than that. Of course, that's nothing more than my own imperfect assessment, which the Lord may correct if I'm wrong on this.
I think the brethren will find it extra important to announce new temples, to portray hope in the future and keep things as normal as possible.
As of General Conference, the backlog of temples that have not had a groundbreaking will be 35, but if the Salta delay had not happened that would have been 34, with about five-six others as of today scheduled for a groundbreaking with one other that was thought to be on the table but redoing the master plan came necessary, that will come next year.
So we may see 17 this year still, they could announce three more in the next few weeks also.
So there reasonably could be at least eight this time, if not more, announced. The projection for returning to normal in many areas is about Summer (northern hemisphere) next year but that could change. Vaccine timelines have unfortunately become politically charged, and poliricized, they have had one possible stage 3 failure because someone got something from the test vaccine and it may not have been published what that was. And that is exactly why they do trials, to find if it does really work, what side effects there are, and other benefits and dangers exist.
We should try to coalesce a list before next Friday of the best 8 of all our individual lists, then see what is announced that weekend. I think it could be 8 but October 2018 saw 12.
@Thomas Jay Kemp
Take your vitamin pills...
@Michael Worley
I certainly hope so, Michael! I would love to see something like 20,then most of our top tens will be covered.
@Thomas Jay Kemp
Get your rest....
@Pills & Pillows
I asked my friend, who's used service animals for years:
His response:
"On the service animals in the temple, that's a hard no. In the church houses, that's allowed and shouldn't be an issue anywhere. The policy isn't new. It's been in place now for 11 years."
I hope Rapid City and Missoula gets one, too. Speaking of Native American Nations, a Missoula Temple could serve the Blackfoot and the Flathead Reservations, including the Salish-Kootenai.
I have a running list for the next ten years of temples I expect to see come forward. This is what I’m thinking for conference:
October 2020
Preston, ID/Smithfield, UT 40-70k
Missoula, MT 25k
Santa Cruz, Bolivia 25k
Belo Horizonte, Brazil 25k
Cape Coast, Ghana 10k
Singapore 20k
Tarawa, Kiribati 15-20k
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 10k
I added approximate sizes in square feet at the end of each list. The Church seems to have identified 6 or 7 general floor plan templates that have been working well for them and excepting some unique temples like Phomn Phenomena, Bangkok, and Bengaluru, most every temple under President Nelson fits those templates. I’d be happy to post my additional future picks or thoughts about these templates.
One other note: perhaps this is common knowledge now, but I think I’ve finally figured out the site for the Southwest Salt Lake Valley temple that President Hinckley mentioned back in 2005. At 14852 Juniper Crest Rd in the Rosecrest community in Herriman, the Church owns 18 acres of land. There is an existing chapel at the site that is built on the southeast portion, with a very unusual driveway leading to it. This site was also part of a controversial land development issue that ultimately caused deannexation from Bluffdale so the developer could annex into Herriman and develop the land at the desired density. I’m not from the area so I could be wrong, but the view, the situation, and the size all seem to fit the bill.
My temple predictions
Most likely
Heber or Bluffdale UT US
Austin TX US
Querétaro MX
Santa Cruz BO
Ulanbataar MN
Likely
Spanish Fork UT US
Colorado Springs CO US
Jackson MS US
La Paz BO
Abuja NG
Less likely
Kumasi GH
Abidjan II CI
Hamburg DE
Edinburgh UK
Ushuaia AR or Punta Arenas CL
What the...
Smithfield UT
Jerusalem IL/PS
Jakarta ID
Capetown ZA
Monrovia LR
@EP
I appreciated your predictions on the potential Herriman Temple and the Temple sizes.
I'd be interested in your "additional future picks or thoughts about these templates."
Left one off.... Far West, MO
At this point I do not even expect to know what will happen. An expansion of the Doctrine and Covenants is something I was thinking about. CV
On my facebook page I posted a list of I think 70. I am going to post a maybe longer list here. If I miss any that are announced I am truly out of touch. Although Feather River would have never been on a list I ever made, and my mom partly grew up in Marysville, in what was then the Gridley Stake before Yuba City Stake was formed.
The list:
Fairbanks, Alaska
Juneau, Alaska
Prince Georges, British Columbia
Lethbridge, Alberta
Kingston, Ontario
Hamilton, ontario
Augusta, Maine
Manchester, New Hsmpshire
Sharon, Vermont
White Plains, New York
Syracuse/Ithica/Utica/Albany, New York
Harmony/Oakland Township, Pennsylvania
Trenton, New Jersey
Detroit City Center
Kinston, North Carolina
Greensboro, North Carolina
Charlotte, North Carolina
Ashville, North Carlina
Buena Vista, Virginia
Baltimore, Maryland
Charleston, west Virginia
Charleston, South Carolina
Cleveland, Ohio
Lansing, Michigan
Cincinnati, Ohio
Jackson, Mississippi
Jacksonville, Florida
Kingston, Jamaica
Port of Spain, Trinidad
New Orleans, Louisiana
Springfield, Missouri
Des Moines/Ames, Iowa
Madison/Appleton/Green Bay, Wisconsin
Duluth, Minnesota
Rapid City, South Dakota
Wichita, Kansas
Gilmer, Texas
Fort Worth, Texas
Waco, Texas
Austin, Texas
El Paso, Texas
Farmington, New Mexico
Chile, Arizona/Tuba City, Arizona
Flagstaff, Arizona
Buckeye, Arizona
Queen Creek, Arizona
Temecula, California
Bakersfield, California
Oxnard, California
San Francisco, California
San Jose, California
Summerlin, Nevada
Kanan, Utah
Price, Utah
Springville, Utah
Delta/Filmore, Utah
Heber City, Utah
Park City, Utah
Holliday, Utah
Herriman, Utah
Lehi, Utah
West Valley City/Magna, Utah
Elko. Nevada
Morgan, Utah
North Ogden, Utah
Smithfield, Utah
Missoula, Montana
Tacoma, Washington
Eugene, Oregon
Colorado Springs, Colorado
Torreon, Mexico
Chihuahua, Mexico
Culiacan, Mexico
La Paz, Mexico
Mexico City 2
Pachuca, Mexico
Cancun, Mexico
Acapulco, Mexico
Guatemal City # 2
Antigua, Guatemala
Cali, Colombia
Medillin, Colombia
2nd temple in Venezuela
Iquitos, Peru
Cusco, Peru
Tacna, Peru
Valparaido/Vina del mar, Chile
Punta Arnas, Chile
Neuqurn, Argentina
Resistencia, Argentina
Florianopolis, Brazil
Londrina, Brazil
So Paul #2
Santos, Brazil
Cuiaba, Brazil
Maceo, Brazil
Cape Town, South Africa
Antanarivo, Madagascar
Mabaye-Mbuji, Congo
Abuja, Nigeria
Aboh Mbase, Nogeria
Port Harcourt, Nigeria
Somewhere in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria
Enugu, Nigeria
Kumasi, Ghana
Cape Coast, Ghana
Monrovia, Liberia
Daloa, Ivory Coast
Kampala, Ugana
Jakarta. Indonesia
Singapore
Southern Taiwan
Osaka, Japan
Nagano, Japan
3rd temple in Tona
2nd temple in Samoa
Christ Church, New Zealand
Canberra. Australia
Grand Junction, Colorado
Martin's Cove/Casper Wyoming
Cody, Wyoming
Malad, Idaho
Glasgow, Scotland
Barcelona, Spain
Bordeaux, France
Hamburg, Germany
Milan, Italy
Prague, Czechia
New Delhi, India
Tarawa, Kiribati
Marshall Islands
Santa Cruz, Bolivia
La Paz, Bolivia
Otavalo, Ecuador
Durango, Mexico
San Luis Potosi, Mexico
Tirana, Albania
A surised temple would not be any of the last 5 except Jerusalem. Logan is overdue for a split, Cape Town is hug er ly far from Johanesburg, Monrovia could easily support a temple, and Jakarta is insanely far from any temple.
I just realized I neglected to include any Philipino Temples on my insane list. I am thinking somewhere in northern Luzon but I do not know the area well enough to say where.
I haven’t published them anywhere before – maybe I should start doing so.
Okay, maybe I'm inferring way too much. But could the gap in temple announcements in 2014 have in part been in anticipation of the pandemic's disruption of the temple open houses and dedications? There's little benefit in having a completed temple sit unopened. (Not that the brethren knew it was coming, but that they were inspired). It seems very convenient that this is a slow year for dedications-- 3 scheduled and 1 took place pre-COVID.
I wonder when we get to the afterlife how much we'll find was planned to accommodate the pandemic.
Gonna add a few to my Temple predictions
Austin, Texas
Shreveport, Louisiana
Cancun, Mexico
Milan, Italy
Hafta trust you as far as the new temples for the Phillipines; IDK much about the Church growth there, save it's a LOT.
Here's my prediction of the likeliest candidates, though I don't expect even a majority will "hit"...
UTAH: West Valley City (Magna?), Salt Lake Mount Olympus, Heber (City) Valley, Richfield, Spanish Fork
CONUS and CANADA (ex UT): Bakersfield (CA), Willamette Valley (OR, probably Eugene or Albany), Puget Sound (WA, Lacey, Olympia, or Tacoma), Sandpoint (ID), Mountain Home (ID), Las Cruces (NM), Colorado Springs (CO), Charlotte (NC), Ottowa (ON)
LATIN AMERICA: Zihuatanejo (Mexico), Cali-Columbia, Maracaibo-Venezuela
EAST ASIA and OCEANIA: Canberra (ACT), Christchurch-New Zealand, Jakarta-Indonesia
EURASIA: Oslo-Norway, Warsaw-Poland
AFRICA: Kumasi-Ghana, Monrovia-Liberia, Luanda-Angola, Cape Town-RSA
Interesting thought about the one that predicts a temple in Queen Creek, AZ...although it's proximity to the Gilbert temple likely rules it out for at least a decade or so...my niece recently moved to the East Valley, just put down a deposit on a new home to be built there in QC, and is now teaching Kindergarten at a QC elementary school...and she sez that almost all her kids are LDS! So maybe...
I updated my Temple Bracket for this General Conference. Here is the link if you want to print it out. There is an option for a wildcard option if there is a location you want to add.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hTy-v7q0eMVWeXbq8wU7FcMueHgCuFiU/view?usp=sharing
I think Brazil defiantly merits more temples. It has more stakes than Mexico, but less temples. I would look out for more temples in Brazil in the next decade.
Having served my mission in Cancun, Mexico, I am happy to see it on your lists. But I think there are other cities in Mexico that will get temples before Cancun. Torreon and Culiacan are much further away from the nearest temple. I would expect those cities before Cancun. I did hear from a stake president that some general authorities were looking for a piece of land in Cancun. But it could have been for a future meetinghouse or something else.
Thanks for this thread. When Elder Bednar recentlu quoted Brigham Young in conference about "thousands of temples" in all the countries... I thought back to earlier thoughts of "hundreds of temples dotting the earth".
This order of magnitude increase caught me off-guard. But there is BY's quote in the 3rd to the last paragraph on Saints Volume 2!
Ad Elder Bednar said a couple of years ago, all the changes are tied together. For instance:
- The changes in leaders and mothers with children at home being able to officiate and work in the temple.
- Changes and simplification in presenting the temple ordinances in any language or culture with the same, shared experience.
- The example of the future Shanghai China temple being able to perform all ordinances in a building set apart and arranged for the purpose... think of the Endowment House or Ensign Peak.
- And my favorite from Pres. Nelson saying we are known as a chapel building people, but will be known or need to be known as a temple building people.
Final point: with this COVID pause moving on, and the realization by all of what can be done in shorter time and less meeting houses, I'm hoping there can come a great expansion of temple ordinances in thousands of locations in the coming years. Small buildings. Repurposed buildings. New temples of all sizes. In all countries in the forseeable future.
Hey, thanks for doing the Temple Bracket again, Cory! Now I don't have to update mine for this go 'round. :)
They are building the SR-24 freeway from Ellsworth to Ironwood/Ganzel in the East Valley, and near Signal Butte there is some property, albeit smaller, that has rumors attached to it for a temple. Heard about the rumors two years ago.
The State is building SR-24 as a 'skeleton' freeway so the basics are in and will expand it later, most of the development is north of it, but there is strong growth along Ocotillo. But what will fuel growth even more is the extension of SR-88 due south of Apache Junction eventualy down to Eloy, and that will be another freeway too.
So even if it does not end up being the SR-24/Signal Butte property, there will be something the Church has in that area that will end up being used for a future temple.
How does total temple square footage in Mexico and Brazil compare?
This is still a bit rough, but here’s the list moving forward, with some long range guesses as well:
April 2021
Tacoma, WA 70k
Cuautla, Mexico
Legaspi, Philippines
Osaka, Japan 25k
Monrovia, Liberia
Kananga/Mbuji-Mayi, DR Congo
Ribeirão Preto, Brazil
Heber City, UT 25k
October 2021
Charlotte, NC 40-50k
Price, UT 25k
Colorado Springs, CO 25k
Abuja, Nigeria
Cape Town, South Africa
Antananarivo, Madagascar
Rosario, Argentina
Teresina, Brazil
April 2022
Oslo, Norway
Santiago, Philippines
Evanston, WY 10-25k
Herriman, UT (14852 Juniper Crest site) 70-100k
Bakersfield, CA 40k
Iquitos, Peru
Uyo, Nigeria
Kampala, Uganda
October 2022
Flagstaff, AZ
Eugene, OR
Fairbanks, AK
El Paso, TX
Edinburgh, Scotland
Queretaro, Mexico
North Ogden/Pleasant View, UT 70-100k
Ibadan, Nigeria
April 2023
Spanish Fork, UT 100k
Coeur d’Alene/Post Falls/Hayden, ID
Casper, WY
Pachuca, Mexico
Tacloban City, Philippines
Yamoussoukro, Cote d'Ivoire
Kumasi, Ghana
Remodel: Logan, UT
October 2023
Green Bay, WI
Austin, TX
João Pessoa, Brazil
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Maracaibo, Venezuela
Lomé, Togo
Port Harcourt, Nigeria
Remodel: Seattle, WA
April 2024
Elko, NV
Shreveport, LA
La Paz, Bolivia
Busan, Korea
Bo, Sierra Leone
Piura, Peru
Torreón/Durango, Mexico
Traverse Mountain/Lehi/Highland/Alpine, UT 70k
Remodel: Provo, UT
October 2024
Henderson, NV 40k
El Paso, TX
Washington City or Hurricane, UT 70k
Santa Ana, El Salvador
Campo Grande, Brazil
Cualicàn, Mexico
Cusco, Peru
Savaii, Samoa
April 2025
Delta, UT
Nampa/Caldwell, ID
Port of Spain, Trinidad
New Delhi, India
Cali, Colombia
Vanuatu
Maputo or Beira, Mozambique
Remodel: Lima, Peru (original)
October 2025
Farmington, NM
Rapid City, SD
Queen Creek, AZ
Chihuahua, Mexico
Osorno, Chile
Vienna, Austria
Remodel: Manti, UT
By April 2030
Remodel: any of the first 50 temples not previously done since 1990
Summerlin Las Vegas, NV 40k
Eagle Mountain, UT
Lindon, UT
Morgan, UT
Ammon/Rigby, ID
Burley, ID
San Jose, CA
Victorville/Inland Empire, CA
Yuma, AZ
Grand Junction, CO
Des Moines, IA
Cleveland, OH
Cincinnati, OH
Knoxville, TN
Jacksonville, FL
Augusta, ME
Juneau, AK
Cancún, Mexico
Kingston, Jamaica
Liberia, Costa Rica
Huancayo, Peru
Puerto Princesa, Philippines
Santiago, Philippines
Milan, Italy
By 2050:
Milwaukee, WI
Lethbridge, AB, Canada
Prince George, BC, Canada
Victoria, BC, Canada
Havana, Cuba
David, Panama
Belize City, Belize/San Benito, Guatemala
Huehuetenango, Guatemala
Pisco/Ica, Peru
Hobart, Tasmania
Miri, Malaysia
Kaohsiung City, Taiwan
Taichung City, Taiwan
Tirana, Albania
Bucharest, Romania
Brussels, Belgium
Toulouse/Bordeaux, France
Spain 2nd Temple
Cardiff, Wales
Belfast, Northern Ireland
Dublin, Ireland
Much as I would love to see a second temple for the Las Vegas Valley, I’m not sure we use the one we have enough quite yet. But I think we’re getting close. Another temple would definitely help increase usage because it is not very easy to get to the current temple from within the valley.
John Pack Lambert, that Is a good Point.
I added up the square footage and filled in some estimates for the temples under construction. The Total for Mexico was approximately 300,000 square feet and the approximate total for Brazil was 332,000.
Mexico had a huge temple boom at the beginning of the 21st century and then tapered off. While Brazil has grown more steadily. I guess my point was that Brazil did not have a small temple boom. Mexico got ten ~10,700 temples while Brazil only got one in that time period. I'm sure there are reasons for this, including the the maturity of the stakes. I guess my point was to say that Brazil seems prime for more temples in cities with two or three stakes.
The Church announced tonight the groundbreaking dates in November and December for the Bengaluru India Temple; the Harare Zimbabwe Temple and Davao Philippines Temple.
https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/temple-groundbreakings-announced-in-asia-and-africa
Thanks to everyone who has put together a list of temple predictions. I have again compiled a temple matrix that combines all the lists I could find and computes a composite score. Currently it is composed of 17 lists - a new record! The top 3 most expected temples are Bolivia, Mongolia and Brazil. All 3 were in the top 10 for April conference so that is to be expected. See the following link:
https://sites.google.com/view/templematrix
Actually Brazil has both Campinas and Porto Alegre from that time period. Recife also basically took until then to complete.
So Brazil will have roughly the same square footage.
I do expect both the see more temples.
El Paso is a strong contender for a temple. The same factors of hard cross border issues that caused a temple in Vancover and maybe played into the Tijuana Temple play in there.
With only 1 new temple announced in Latin American last conference I can see several announced there.
The only planned temples in Europe are Hungary and Russia.
The Europe Area also has Capo Verde but that is normally classed as Africa. It is clearly closer to Africa.
I would love to see a temple for Mozambique. The thing is the stakes there are so far apart I can not see a strong case for which stakes would get a temple first.
Harare at four and a half years since it was announced is the longest delayed temple not yet started.
Urdeneta Temple at 10 years since it was announced I believe is the longest delayed currently under construction temple.
Thanks for the temple matrix, Nate. I'ma go check it out!
My October 2020 temple announcement prediction:
8 temples announced
My top 15:
Santa Cruz, Bolivia
Monrovia, Liberia
Angeles or Olongapo, Philippines
Tarawa, Kiribati
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Missoula, Montana
Colorado Springs, Colorado
Santiago or Tuguegarao, Philippines
Heber Valley, Utah
Charlotte, North Carolina
Mbuji-Mayi, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Iquitos, Peru
Singapore or Jakarta, Indonesia
Uyo, Nigeria
Cape Coast or Cumasi, Ghana
Other temples not as likely:
Eugene, Oregon
Tacoma, Washington
Jacksonville, Florida
Querétaro México
Osaka, Japan
Monrovia, Liberia
Oslo, Norway
Other potential temples in Utah:
Spanish Fork
Herriman or Riverton
Morgan
Price
Updated. I had one listed twice and I forgot one possibility in Utah.
My October 2020 temple announcement prediction:
8 temples announced
My top 15:
Santa Cruz, Bolivia
Monrovia, Liberia
Angeles or Olongapo, Philippines
Tarawa, Kiribati
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Missoula, Montana
Colorado Springs, Colorado
Santiago or Tuguegarao, Philippines
Heber Valley, Utah
Charlotte, North Carolina
Mbuji-Mayi, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Iquitos, Peru
Singapore or Jakarta, Indonesia
Uyo, Nigeria
Cape Coast or Cumasi, Ghana
Other temples not as likely:
Eugene, Oregon
Tacoma, Washington
Jacksonville, Florida
Querétaro México
Osaka, Japan
Oslo, Norway
others in Utah:
Spanish Fork
Herriman or Riverton
Morgan
Price
Cache Valley #2 (Smithfield or Nibley/Hyrum area)
6 temples! Kiribati, Vanuatu, lindon,utah, greater Guatemala City (yippee! That is where I served!), Bolivia, brazil!
Greater Guatemala City could be in Mixco or Villa Nueva. A little further out makes sense in several areas, too.
Of course it's now after Gen Conference
Flagstaff/North Pole Alaska. I think "North Pole Alaska" would be more fun coming from the Pulpit. It's 2 stakes but a very isolated 2 stakes.
Another Luzon Island Temple. It already has 1 dedicated and two under construction, but the Manila temple has 86 stakes and 27 districts in its temple district. In addition, these 25,000 sf temples have nothing compared to the capacity of Utah's 80,000 sf temples.
Buena Vista Virginia. This is home to Southern Virginia University, operated by members for members, and a YSA Stake. This would also bring a temple closer to several stakes in Virginia/West Virginia.
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