Friday, September 12, 2014

New Temple Prediction Map

As part of my biannual tradition to discuss likely predictions for new temples that may be announced in General Conference, I have included my most recent map of locations which I think are most likely to have temples announced within the foreseeable future. I have not added any new locations to this map within the past six months as there have not appeared to have been any major developments during this period that would warrant additional locations to be added to the map. However, the formation of new stakes in Southeast Asia and Cape Verde during this period suggest that both of these locations appear more probable for future temples in the coming years.

Based on President Monson's statements last conference about the Church concentrating on completing temples that have already been announced or that are under construction, I do not predict that any temples will be announced this coming October General Conference. However, if any temples are announced, I would predict the following five as the most likely based on recent church growth developments:
  1. Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire
  2. Praia, Cape Verde
  3. Puebla, Mexico
  4. Pocatello, Idaho
  5. Bangkok, Thailand or Phnom Penh, Cambodia

View Potential New Temples in a larger map


phxmars said...
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phxmars said...

Agree none will be announced.

1)Northern Davis County, Utah
2)SE Asia

Bryan Dorman said...

Not anticipating any temple announcements.

If any are announced my top options are:

No. Davis, Utah

Mexico (Puebla, Torreón, or Culiacán, dark horse Querétaro/San Luis Potosi)

Brazil (Brasília or Belém, or perhaps Salvador)

Central America: Nicaragua

Africa: Abidjan or Harare (both now have multiple stakes within their countries---Abidjan has as many stakes as Accra which DOES have a temple). Lean more Harare though due to Cote d'Ivoire being at risk for EBOLA.

Europe: Can't think of any here. Possible darkhorse candidate for Vienna or Budapest.

Asia: Bangkok, Phnom Penh, or Singapore. Leaning more towards Bangkok. Darkhorse being Hyderabad in India or even Yerevan in Armenia.

Oceania: Pago Pago as a dark horse.

MainTour said...

I'm going to repost my predictions from Oct 2013. (My April 2013 picks did really well!)

- Puebla Mexico
- Auckland NZ
- Richmond VA
- Managua Nicaragua
- Ivory Coast

Mike Johnson said...

I didn't think there would be any temples announced in April 2013, but two were announced--the last two to be announced. I worried that there wouldn't be any announced in October 2013 because the missions probably were absorbing more of the available Church money. The temple pipeline has reduced somewhat since last April.

I wonder how long the Temple Department will go before starting a new temple. I am wondering if the Temple Department was downsized in a shift of funds.

Major funding decisions occur the first Thursday in December. So, we are operating on the same funding plan as in the spring. This could add to the idea of no temples in October.

Pocatello and Richmond are my top two picks if temples end up being announced. I do like Cape Verde as a near-term temple.

John Pack Lambert said...

I predict Pocatello, Idaho; Wellington, New Zealand and Abijan, Ivory Coast.

John Pack Lambert said...

I think I meant to say Auckland, New Zealnd. Wellington is very close to Hamilton where the Temple is. Sorry I am not fully up on New Zealand.

James said...

Matt, I am posting because I never received a response from you in regards to my proposal about swapping predictions. Let me review briefly what I am offering: I take time well in advance of each general conference to predict who will speak and conduct and in what order in general conference, as well as what changes may take place in general Church leadership. In doing so, I have 60-80% accuracy for each conference. Since I have a blog now, I will likely be posting my conference predictions on there within the next few days. Since I find your temple predictions equally fascinating, I would like to do a trade. In other words, I would send my conference predictions to you to post on your blog, and you would give me permission to post your temple predictions on my blog. You can contact me by commenting on my blog. You will find it at, or click on the link to my name for my blogger profile, which will lead to my e-mail address. I anxiously await your response. Thank you for your prompt attention to this matter.

Michael Worley said...

The picking both of speaker order is a Sacred activity. As such, I don't feel comfortable publicly speculating on speaker order. (Sorry, James!)

However, since President Hinckley more or less endorsed speculation on temple site locations when he announced the 30 smaller temples:

1. No temples will be announced this conference, and perhaps not next one either, but there will be some announced by the end of 2015.
2. If they do announce temples, I agree about one temple in Utah and one temple in Asia.
3. When they DO announce new temples again, they will announce several in Africa, but that won't be at this conference.

Michael Worley said...


Others might feel differently than I, but for me, it just doesn't feel like how I should be spending my time.

Ryan Searcy said...

I am working on a spreadsheet and accompanied map that outlines every stake, district, mission, temple, and other branches. Parts of it are very out of date due to not being able to spend a whole lot of time on it.

The temples part of my project outlines 3 different parts.
1 - Current Temples (with data on which stakes and districts are outside 200 miles of each temple)
2 - Announced or Under Constructed (very similar structure to 1, except it involves a predicted temple district, and includes a section on stakes and districts that were outside 200 miles of the temple, but are now inside 200 miles of the new one)
3 - Potential Temples (all of the remaining stakes and districts that are outside 200 miles of a temple grouped by a select city amd only includes stakes and districts within 200 miles of the city)

I am basically finished with Africa, Asia, and Europe, but I still need to work on Central, North, and South America, and Oceania.

What I guess so far
Africa - Benin City Nigeria (10,7)
Asia - Cagayan de Oro Philippines (11,17)
Central America - Culiacan Mexico
Europe - Vienna Austria (2,4 - Budapest also a potential city, so the Budapest Stake is not included)
North America - Layton, Lehi, or Pocatello
Oceania - Palikir Micronesia
South America - Salvador Brazil

Maybe when I am finished, I can post the link for the spreadsheet on here.

Matt said...

Thank you everyone for your comments.


It would be great if you could make a link to your spreadsheet. Right now I am making databases for that list all of the stakes and districts that have ever operated in the Church, with as much detail as I can gather for each one. I imagine that these will be finished in the next couple months.

Matt said...

I think

Tooele, UT
Bakersfield, CA
Pittsburgh, PA

can also be added to the list...

John Pack Lambert said...

I expect Bakersfield and Pittsburgh long before Tooele. In Tooele they lack the vision necccesary to get a temple.

I would guess Heber City will have a temple before Tooele does. However I think the next Utah Temple will be in either Lehi or Eagle Mountain.

While there are two temples announced for Africa, which some may see as a backlog, they are both in the Africa Southeast Area. In the Africa West Area, where the Church has experienced crazy high rates of growth, there are only two temples with none announced. Ivory Coast consistently has over 20% annual growth, and it was in Daloa earlier this year that about 6 brnaches were formed in a year. It also has some of the highest rates of temple attendance.

With the church exploding in both Ivory Coast and Ghana, getting a second temple between those countries makes sense. With Both Sierre Leone and Togo having stakes, and Benin and Liberia also seeing significant growth of the Church, there is enough to justify a temple in Ivory Coast. Among those countries there are 8 mission where there were only 2 when the Accra Temple was dedicated.

Mike Johnson said...

The Church has published the status of 15 temples under construction at:

John Pack Lambert said...

At stake conference this evening, Elder Gordon Smith, an area 70, mentioned Kurds getting baptized by US servicemen in Iraq.

Will said...

This time I've decided share some of my regional temple predictions.

Brazil Brasilia
Cape Verde Praia
Philippines Cagayan de Oro
Mexico Puebla
Washington Tacoma
Scotland Glasgow

James Anderson said...

Conference: The following usually happens.

All 15 of the First Presidency and Quorum of the Twelve speak at every conference. Occasionally, one or two may not be able to due to a serious illness or related health matter.

Two or three members of the Presidency of the Seventy speak. One member each of the Young Men General Presidency, the Relief Society General Presidency, the Primary General Presidency, and the Young Women General Presidency speaks. Each one of those auxiliary presidency members speaks every third conference on a rotating basis (includes the YM presidency members). It takes up to three conferences for each member of the Presidency of the Seventy to speak to us.

It is about once every 5-6 years that any given apostle speaks to us in Priesthood. All First Presidency members speak twice, once in a general session and once in Priesthood. Although it doesn't always happen, the President of the Church may speak as many as three or four times, with two of them being major addresses.

Three temples that were under construction as of April Conference will be completed (or are very substantially complete) by the end of the year. Five at least will be completed and thus moved 'off the table' as far as the under construction status is concerned, five mor ewill be completed in 2016 if not more and we have at least one already set for 2017 (Fortaleza). That means most of those not started will be underway by sometime next year at some point.

That means that some new ones will have to be put 'into the pipeline' so we always have two or three each year or so to complete, if not more. It's now taking three to five years to complete any temple from announcement to dedication.

Unknown said...

I also feel like we have enough Temples nearing completition to see a few new ones. I already posted it on the cumorah facebook page, but for the next few Temples to be announced, I would file the following guesses. We could see them all announced within the next two years:

Abidjan, Cote d`Ivoire and Layton, Utah. These two are actually my guesses for this Conference. In the near future, we`re also likely to see Praia, Cape Verde; Pocatello, Idaho; Puebla, Mexico; Managua, Nicaragua; and Nairobi, Kenya.

Thus far my guesses as to what will happen in the next two years to "recharge" the pipeline.

Tyler Sorensen said...

"If" new temples are announced I would say 1 in Brazil and Layton are most likely. With dark horse candidates of Budapest and Bangkok

James Anderson said...

For readers in Utah, in the Clyde Building on campus on the second floor facing the side of the north stairwell on the way to the 377 classroom, there is a display detailing an engineering need at the Seattle Temple near the baptistry and how they are going to resolve it.

If you've been there, there is an exterior pillar that splits a large window in half. They want to make that one large window and the engineering display was on how to resolve the underlying engineering issues to do that, and the ways that might be considered.

They indicated that this was going to be part of an 'upcoming renovation' of the Seattle Temple. No possible start date was given in the display.

Unknown said...

The Lubbock Texas North Stake was created on 9/14/2014 from a division of the Lubbock Texas (previously 8w4b) and Roswell New Mexico (previously 9w5b) Stakes.

Lubbock Texas North Stake: 5 wards, 3 branches)
Clovis Ward
Frenship Mesa Ward
Heritage Ward
Portales Ward
Shadow Hills Ward
El Llano Branch (Spanish)
Plainview Branch
Quaker Heights Branch (Spanish)

Lubbock Texas Stake has: 6 wards, 3 branches
Canyon West Ward
Caprock Ward
College Park YSA Ward
Hobbs 1st Ward
Monterey Park Ward
Regal Park Ward
Hobbs 2nd Branch (Spanish)
Seminole Branch
Snyder Branch

Roswell New Mexico Stake has: 6 wards, 3 branches
Artesia Ward
Carlsbad Caverns Ward
Pecos River Ward
Roswell 1st Ward
Roswell 2nd Ward
Ruidoso Ward
Fort Sumner Branch
Mescalero Branch
Roswell 3rd Branch (Spanish)

Eduardo said...

To each person their own personal conjecture. I find it interesting to predict where new temples will be built as much as where new stakes and districts and branches are cropping up.

I also like to see how BYU football fits in the top 25. I also like to see overall demographics and crime rates, death rates, birth rates, disease rates, etc...

I enjoy General Conference and get a thrill from news...And sometimes new speakers add a new feel for standard procedures. I look forward to a Latino or Asian or African apostle. Or a second quorum, as someone recently suggested.

All aspects of church growth are interesting to me, as much as how many missionaries are out, how many stay active in the faith, which ones marry people from their missions, who are the new mission presidents, stake presidents, bishoprics and branch presidents as far as we can learn.

Anyway, it is always a thrill to see more temples built. India and southeast Asia would be great. As much as the numbers of Phnom Penh might be suitable, my guess is Bangkok would be first due to longer lasting membership, better economic conditions. But a temple there would sure help the Cambodians and Vietnamese. And dont' forget Laos or even Myanmar...

Keep on attending and doing your histories.

James said...

Michael, I understand about you personally feeling uncomfortable about "speculating" about general conference speakers. I don't speculate. I make an educated prediction based upon extensive research. The fact that I average between 60-80% accuracy per conference speaks for itself. I don't understand why you would have qualms about predicting the speaking order for General Conference but not temple sites. If anything, temple sites are less predictable because they are selected based upon membership increase, distances to closest temples, and local acceptance of a temple. It is difficult to know what, if any, new temples may be announced because of President Monson's statement last conference that no new temples would be announced in the foreseeable future and that the focus would be on completing already announced temples. There's a great website that tracks the status of temple construction. It's Go there for the latest news on temples. However, I am prepared to acknowledge that the Lord's timing is unpredictable, so it's not out of the question for new temples to be announced, and Matt's predictions for temples are as well thought out and researched as I've tried to make my conference predictions. As a matter of fact, Matt, I have posted your temple predictions on my blog. I have also posted my conference predictions there. Rather than reproduce them here, unless you, Matt, decide to post them for me on your blog, I will direct anyone interested in seeing what my predictions for the upcoming conference are to my blog. Here's the address: As I said, I have done extensive research. I have many facts and files stored away in a special folder on my computer. All of them help me to make educated predictions for each conference. I'm sorry if that bothers or troubles anyone, but most people I have shared my predictions with find them fascinating. And, like I said, predicting who will speak in what order during general conference and what leadership changes will occur during general conference involves much less and is much less speculative (in my mind) than predicting temple sites. Even so, I do find Matt's temple sites predictions as fascinating as my own general conference predictions.

Michael Worley said...


My comment came off too strong. I'm sorry.

The Opinion said...

It looks like there will be 5 new temples dedicated next year.
2015 Indianapolis, Cordoba, Payson, Tijuana, and Trujillo as well as two renovated temples be rededicated Montreal and Mexico City.
2016 will prove a big year for dedications with Fort Collins, Hartford, Paris, Rome, Philadelphia, Provo City, and Sapparo.

Without any other groundbreakings after 2016 there will be two temples that will be under construction

Certainly, I would expect several groundbreakings to happen next year including Lisbon, Tucson, Cedar City, Star Valley, Barranquilla, Concepcion

I would think next year some others will be announced but maybe only one or two per conference until after 2016.

JonErik said...

It would be great to see a temple in Pocatello, as the rumor-mill over a potential long-term remodel of the Idaho Falls temple keeps getting louder and louder....

James Anderson said...

Know someone who works at a place in Provo where the construction manager for Provo City Center is a regular customer, and he was told it will be in 2015.

In a couple months the scaffolding will come down, the lower deck parking garage will be where they will bring things in, and the only real visible work will be finishing what locals are calling 'the gazebo', the water features, landscaping, and window installation. All the big exterior work is all but done.

That puts it more into 2015 for that one, Payson for sure, they're testing the east fountain right now, the west one has not progressed that far.

John Pack Lambert said...

Here is an article about a new stake in Pennsylvania. From communication with the director of LDS Family Services for western Pennsylvania, I have the impression that they are using the Addiction Recovery Program as a tool to bring in sold converts to the Church, so I suspect that while the number of converts might not be great, retention rates are high in Pittsburgh.

James said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
James said...

Noticed a few typos in the last comment I made, and, since I'm a perfectionist of sorts and couldn't edit the comment, I chose instead to delete it and repost it. It should have read as follows: "According to, 5-7 temples could be dedicated next year (the two that are question marks are Rome Italy and Provo City Center, which are expected to be completed either in late 2015 or early 2016) with 5-7 to be completed in 2016 (this again includes Provo and Rome if they have not been dedicated in 2015), and only two so far for 2017. Apparently, construction on the Fortaleza Brazil Temple hasn't even started yet, though ground was broken for it on November 15, 2011. So the dedication of that temple might be delayed even further depending on how quickly local issues can be resolved. As far as the announced temples go, only four (Tucson Arizona, Urdaneta Philippines, Durban South Africa, Cedar City Utah) do not have a site announced yet. All the rest have noted that the groundbreaking is pending. Apparently some issues are going on with the Star Valley Wyoming Temple that they are trying to clear up. But any of the remaining 7 (or 8, if you include Star Valley) could have their ground broken either this year, next year, or the year after. So it wouldn't surprise me if new temples were announced again starting in the upcoming General Conference. I don't have any site predictions of my own per se, but I do think Matt's predictions are good. I have felt for a while now that there will someday be temples in Lehi and Orem. But I won't venture to predict if/when that will happen. The interesting thing about the LDS Church temples site is that it includes a list of publicly proposed temples. These are temples that have not been officially announced, but have been mentioned as happening at some point in the future by an apostle. There are seven thus far. In June 1992, Neal A. Maxwell promised the Saints in New Delhi India that if they were faithful and continued to keep their covenants and live the gospel, they would see a temple in their land. Similar promises were made by Gordon B. Hinckley in Nairobi Kenya on February 17, 1998; in Maracaibo Venezuela on August 3, 1999; in Singapore on January 3, 2000; and in Bangkok Thailand on June 13, 2000. And who can forget President Hinckley's acknowledgement during General Conference on October 1, 2005 of land purchased in the Southwest part of the Salt Lake Valley for the express purpose of a temple when Church membership warranted it? That was nine years ago, and that temple still hasn't been announced. The last publicly proposed temple was for Managua Nicaragua by Russell M. Nelson almost three years ago on January 18, 2012. I haven't yet had a chance to delve into what Church membership is in each of these "proposed temple sites" areas, but I imagine that if an apostle proposed a temple site, it will happen at some point. At very least, I would imagine that the five proposed by President Hinckley will be announced because he, as the prophet, had a hand in acquiring future temple sites and announcing them as President Monson does now. So anyways, that's what I wanted to say in this post. Hope you enjoyed it!" That's my official two cents on the matter, officially typo-free. Thank you very much.

James Anderson said...

The plan is after Provo City Center is built to put all of Orem south of 800 North (U-52) into the Provo Temple district. It is common anyway for Orem residents to go to Provo since it is actually closer for them to attend the Provo Temple rather than travel north to Mount Timpanogos.

That will relieve some of the issues at Mount Timpanogos, but that is expected to only be temporary due to the growth in northern Utah County.

Mike Johnson said...

The Pittsburgh Pennsylvania West Stake was created on 7 September. There are 6 wards in the stake:

Pittsburgh 2nd Ward
Pittsburgh 5th Ward
Pittsburgh 6th Ward
Washington Ward
Wheeling Ward
Wintersville Ward

The Bellefonte Ward, Altoona Pennsylvania Stake, was created on 14 September. There are now 6 wards and 7 branches in the stake:

Altoona Ward
Bellefonte Ward
Brookville Ward
Johnstown Ward
State College 2nd Ward
State College 1st Ward
Bedford Branch
Huntingdon Branch
Indiana Branch
Philipsburg Branch
Ridgway Branch
Somerset Branch
University Park Branch (Student)

The Bloomington 2nd Ward, Peoria Illinois Stake, was created on 14 September. There are now 7 wards and 5 branches in the stake:

Bloomington 1st Ward
Bloomington 2nd Ward
Galesburg Ward
Morton Ward
Normal Ward
Pekin Ward
Peoria Ward
Canton Branch
Havana Branch
Kewanee Branch
Pontiac Branch
Princeton Branch

The Green Valley 9th Ward, St George Utah Green Valley Stake, was created on 14 September. There are now 8 wards and 1 branch in the stake:

Green Valley 1st Ward
Green Valley 2nd Ward
Green Valley 3rd Ward
Green Valley 4th Ward
Green Valley 5th Ward
Green Valley 6th Ward
Green Valley 7th Ward
Green Valley 9th Ward
Green Valley 8th Branch (Retirement)

The Mesepa 3rd Ward, Pago Pago Samoa Central Stake, was created on 14 September. There are now 7 wards and 1 branch in the stake:

Makeke 1st Ward (Tongan)
Makeke 2nd Ward (Tongan)
Mesepa 1st Ward
Mesepa 2nd Ward
Mesepa 3rd Ward
Tafuna 1st Ward
Tafuna 2nd Ward
Makeke 3rd Branch (Tongan)

The Mountain Point 11th Ward, Draper Utah Mountain Point Stake, was created on 14 September. There are now 11 wards and 3 branches in the stake:

Mountain Point 1st Ward
Mountain Point 2nd Ward
Mountain Point 3rd Ward
Mountain Point 4th Ward
Mountain Point 5th Ward
Mountain Point 6th Ward
Mountain Point 7th Ward
Mountain Point 8th Ward
Mountain Point 9th Ward
Mountain Point 10th Ward
Mountain Point 11th Ward
Olympus Branch (Correctional Facility - Male)
Timpanogos 1st Branch (Correctional Facility - Female)
Timpanogos 2nd Branch (Correctional Facility - Female)

The Nyandeyama Branch, Kenema Sierra Leone District, Sierra Leone Freetown Mission, was created on 14 September. There are now 7 branches in the district:

Burma Branch
Hangha Road Branch
IDA Branch
Kenema Branch
Kpayama Branch
Nyandeyama Branch
Simbeck Branch

The Oquirrh Point 7th Ward, West Jordan Utah Oquirrh Point Stake, was created on 14 September. There are now 7 wards in the stake:

Oquirrh Point 1st Ward
Oquirrh Point 2nd Ward
Oquirrh Point 3rd Ward
Oquirrh Point 4th Ward
Oquirrh Point 5th Ward (Spanish)
Oquirrh Point 6th Ward
Oquirrh Point 7th Ward

The Rexburg YSA 96th and 97th wards, Rexburg Idaho YSA 5th Stake, were created on 14 September. There are now 12 wards in the stake:

Rexburg YSA 4th Ward
Rexburg YSA 17th Ward
Rexburg YSA 25th Ward
Rexburg YSA 40th Ward
Rexburg YSA 41st Ward
Rexburg YSA 42nd Ward
Rexburg YSA 46th Ward
Rexburg YSA 57th Ward
Rexburg YSA 58th Ward
Rexburg YSA 66th Ward
Rexburg YSA 96th Ward
Rexburg YSA 97th Ward

The Tamaki 3rd Ward (Samoan), Auckland New Zealand Tamaki Stake, was created on 7 September. There are now 7 wards in the stake:

Clover Park Ward
Johnstone Ward
Tamaki 1st Ward (Samoan)
Tamaki 2nd Ward (Samoan)
Tamaki 3rd Ward (Samoan)
Tamaki 4th Ward (Tongan)
Tangaroa Ward

The Uquo Branch, Eket Nigeria Stake, was created on 24 August. There are now 11 wards and 3 branches in the stake:

Afaha Eket Ward
Edo Ward
Ibeno Ward
Idua Ward
Idung Offiong Ward
Ikot Akpatek Ward
Ikot Anang Ward
Ikot Ebidang Ward
Ikot Usekong Ward
Ikwe Ward
Usung Inyang Ward
Okat Branch
Okon Branch
Uquo Branch

Michael said...

My future temple predictions:
1. Nigeria (Lagos or Benin City)
2. Chile (2nd in greater Santiago)
2. Argentina (2nd in greater Buenos Aires)
3. Philippines (Cagayan de Oro)
4. Venezuela (Maracaibo)
5. Cote d'Ivoire (Abidjan)
6. Thailand (Bangkok) OR Cambodia (Phnom Penh)
7. Nicaragua (Managua)
8. Bolivia (Santa Cruz)

James Anderson said...

News article about creation of Pittsburgh Pennsylvania Stake.

Michael said...

Edit. Messed up my numbering, and forgot Puebla.

My future temple predictions:

1. Nigeria (Lagos or Benin City)
2. Chile (2nd in greater Santiago)
3. Argentina (2nd in greater Buenos Aires)
4. Philippines (Cagayan de Oro)
5. Mexico (Puebla)
6. Cote d'Ivoire (Abidjan)
7. Thailand (Bangkok) OR Cambodia (Phnom Penh)
8. Nicaragua (Managua)
9. Venezuela (Maracaibo)
10. Bolivia (Santa Cruz)

Eduardo said...

Comments on speculation about future temples in or around Santiago de Chile, Buenos Aires, Nigeria, and Bolivia.

1. Another temple in Chile would make a lot of sense up north, where there is 1,000 miles between Santiago (Providencia), the extant Cochabamba temple and the announced Arequipa temple. Arica, close to the Peruvian border, or Iquique, Antofogasta or Calama. Those are all much further from temples than our leaders like them to be. My money would be Antofogasta, where there has been a mission since the 1980s.

2. Bahia Blanca would make a lot more sense than closer to Buenos Aires, helping thousands to the south and the interior. Argentina is a massive country. Eventually there should be another temple another 1,000 miles to the south.

3. Another temple makes sense in Nigeria, closer to Benin and Togo, like Lagos, (or Benin City), but I like greater Lagos because of the sheer population influence/potential.

4. Santa Cruz makes a lot of sense in Bolivia, but it would be cool to see a simultaneous one in La Paz. The western one would cover some Peruvians (and even northern Chileans), and the eastern one would get some argentinos, paraguayos e brasilenhos tamben. Imagina.

Eduardo said...

Also, about Chilean temples: Apart from a temple needed further down south to service a few thousand people at the bottom of the earth (south of the latitudes of Australia) that could overlap with Argentine Patagonia, the Vina del Mar/ Valparaiso area of the coast would be a nice spot for a temple, even though it is only and hour to two from Santiago.

In numbers, Chile now has some 570,000 members baptized, but on a good day it may only be about 15 percent active. 90,000 active members translates to about maybe 50 strong stakes?

What is good attendance for a strong stake in the US? What about abroad?

Mike Johnson said...

There is a difference between average attendance and active members and sometimes I think people mix this up.

For example, if 1/3 attend every week, 1/3 attend every other week, and 1/3 never attend, then average attendance is 50%, but active membership is 66%. In general, active membership is pretty much always greater than average attendance.

My home teaching companion has a strong testimony and a strong self identity with the Church, but he is in Church about half the time. Things come up, he bails his grown children out, he gets sick, he travels a lot for work, and so on.

MLewis said...

Another temple in the Santiago area would be cool for Chile, but how busy is the Santiago temple? Vina del Mar is just under 100 miles from Santiago. There are only a handful of locations with temples in closer proximity than 100 miles, and I think the only ones outside the United States are the São Paulo and Campinas temples in Brazil. I don't know how close São Paulo was to operating capacity was when the decision was made to build in Campinas, but I suspect they had to be running near capacity for the Church to build in Campinas before cities like Belo Horizonte and Brasilia. Chile is a big country. Geography will probably determine future temple sites more than anything else. If I had to guess I'd say the far north (Antofogasta maybe?) would get the next one, unless the Santiago temple is truly at capacity based on use by members who live near Santiago. I don't know all the factors the Church considers, but I imagine you could have a lot of otherwise active members in an area, but if they rarely go to their temple, they won't get another one. On the other hand a smaller pool of active members that keeps their temple busy probably could qualify for a second. That said, any way you cut it Chile is probably overdue for more temples. It's just a question of where.

MLewis said...

So all this talk of temples got me thinking of other ways to look at the numbers. I think temple attendance and geographic distance are the two biggest factors in determining where temples should actually be built, but if we look at raw membership numbers there are some interesting points worth mentioning.

Worldwide there is an average of 88,745 members per temple (including all temples, completed or announced). However, if you look at the numbers on a per country basis, Chile, the Phillipines, and Ecuador have the worst ratios, with 291,680; 229,372; and 220,247 members per temple respectively. Denmark, Finland, and Switzerland have the best ratios at 4,355; 4,855; and 8,741.

Looking at the numbers another way...If we normalize the number of temples a country should have based on the worldwide average (1 per 88,745 members) then a country like Mexico, with 1,344,239 members should have about 15 temples, but they only have 13, leaving them 2 short. Using this method, Brazil is the most underserved country (needing 14.09 temples, but being 6.09 short with only 8), followed by the Philippines (needing 7.75, but being 4.75 short with only 3), and Chile (needing 6.57, but being 4.57 short with only 2). The most overserved countries are the United States (needing 72.10 but being 8.9 over with 81), Canada (needing 2.14, but being 6.86 over with 9) and Australia (needing 1.59, but being 3.41 over with 5).

Obviously geographic isolation plays a big role in places like Australia being "overstocked" with temples, so I'm not criticizing the decision to put them where they are, but it does give some insight into which countries have a lot of potential for some real temple growth.

MainTour said...

MLewis82 - your calculations of avg membership per temple is very smart. However there is another key factor here. It is the decision to build a full size temple or a small temple. The avg membership for each would be quite different. Example how many members are covered by the SLC Temple vs the Monticello Temple?

Eduardo said...

I think numbers of tithe payers also influences.

El Mirador said...

An indicator of the use of a temple is by the number of sessions that are offered in a week. This can give an idea of temple use but it is not perfect as there are sessions with very few people. It would be terrible to allocate money to build a temple to stand empty when there are places that would benefit more from a temple or the Church's humanitarian services.

Here are the number of scheduled sessions per week for a few of the temples recently mentioned:

Santiago (41)
Sao Paulo (36)
Campinas (52)
Helsinki (22)
Copenhagen (12)
Bern (29)
SLC (86)
Monticello (20)

Mike Johnson said...

The Lubbock Texas North Stake was created on 14 September. There are 5 wards and 3 branches in the stake:

Clovis Ward
Frenship Mesa Ward
Heritage Ward
Portales Ward
Shadow Hills Ward
El Llano Branch (Spanish)
Plainview Branch
Quaker Heights Branch (Spanish)

The Ho Ghana District, Ghana Accra Mission, was created on 14 September. There are 3 branches in the district:

Ho 1st Branch
Ho 2nd Branch
Tsito Branch

The Bangued 2nd and Tayum branches, Bangued Philippines District, Philippines Baguio Mission, were created on 17 August. There are now 5 branches in the district:

Bangued 1st Branch
Bangued 2nd Branch
La Paz Branch
Lagangilang Branch
Tayum Branch

The Dawenyha Branch, Tema Ghana Stake, was created on 14 September. There are now 11 wards and 5 branches in the stake:

Adjei Kojo Ward
Ashaiman Ward
Batsona Ward
Bethlehem Ward
Kpone Ward
Lebanon Ward
Nungua 2nd Ward
Sun City Ward
Tema 1st Ward
Tema 2nd Ward
Tema 3rd Ward
Dawenyha Branch
Klagon Branch
Michel Camp Branch
New Town Branch
Zenu Branch

The Kwa Nobuhle 3rd Ward, Port Elizabeth South Africa Stake, was created on 14 September. There are now 8 wards and 1 branch in the stake:

Cleary Estate Ward
Kwa Magxaki Ward
Kwa Nobuhle 1st Ward
Kwa Nobuhle 2nd Ward
Kwa Nobuhle 3rd Ward
Lorraine Ward
Port Elizabeth Ward
Uitenhage Ward
Motherwell Branch

The Nova Aurora Ward, Curitiba Brazil Jardim do Sol Stake, was created on 31 August. There are now 7 wards and 1 branch in the stake:

Bairro Novo Ward
Fazenda Rio Grande Ward
Jardim do Sol Ward
Nova Aurora Ward
Osternak Ward
Parigot de Souza Ward
Rio Iguaçu Ward
Quitandinha Branch

phxmars said...

The Queen Creek Arizona West Stake was created yesterday on 9/21/14 by dividing the Queen Creek North and a neighboring stake to the west. The Cortina 1-4 wards were included

Mike Johnson said...

The Chenalhó Branch, Chojolhó México District, México Tuxtla Gutiérrez Mission, was created on 21 September. There are now 5 branches in the district:

Chenalhó Branch
Chojolhó Branch
Pom Branch
Porvenir Branch
Tepeyac Branch

The Gerald and Monarch branches, Botswana/Namibia Mission, were created on 14 September. There are now 6 independent branches in the mission:

Botswana/Namibia Mission Branch
Francistown Branch
Gerald Branch
Katutura Branch
Monarch Branch
Windhoek Branch

The Hewitt YSA Branch, Waco Texas Stake, was created on 21 September. There are now 5 wards and 5 branches in the stake:

Hewitt Ward
Temple 1st Ward
Temple 2nd Ward
Waco 1st Ward
Waco 2nd Ward
Hewitt YSA Branch
Hillsboro Branch
Mexia Branch
Temple 3rd Branch (Spanish)
Waco 3rd Branch (Spanish)

The Jackson Creek Ward, McCammon Idaho Stake, was created on 21 September. There are now 7 wards in the stake:

Inkom 1st Ward
Jackson Creek Ward
Marsh Creek Ward
McCammon Ward
Mountain View Ward
Rapid Creek Ward
Skyline Ward

The Jardim Jacira Ward, São Paulo Brazil Guarapiranga Stake, was created on 14 September. There are now 9 wards in the stake:

Aracati Ward
Chácara Santana Ward
Guarapiranga Ward
Horizonte Azul Ward
Jardim Capela Ward
Jardim Jacira Ward
Jardim Ângela Ward
Ranieri Ward
Riviera Paulista Ward

The Metfield Branch, Rogers Arkansas Stake, was created on 21 September. There are now 12 wards and 4 branches in the stake:

Anderson Ward
Bella Vista Ward
Bentonville 1st Ward
Bentonville 2nd Ward
Centerton Ward
Central Park Ward
Elm Tree Ward
Grove Ward
Little Flock Ward
Rogers 1st Ward
Rogers 2nd Ward (Spanish)
Sugar Creek Ward
Cassville Branch
Metfield Branch
Pea Ridge Branch
Rogers YSA Branch

The Petrópolis Branch, Gramado Brazil District, Brazil Porto Alegre North Mission, was created on 7 September. There are now 5 branches in the district:

Gramado Branch
Hortências Branch
Petrópolis Branch
Sao Francisco de Paula Branch
Taquara Branch

The Ugbolu Branch, Asaba Nigeria District, Nigeria Benin City Mission, was created on 21 September. There are now 6 branches in the district:

Asaba 1st Branch
Asaba 2nd Branch
Asaba 3rd Branch
Asaba 4th Branch
Illah Branch
Ugbolu Branch

Mike Johnson said...
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Mike Johnson said...

The new Queen Creek Stake isn't showing up in CDOL yet, but I though I would post the existing stakes pre-creation of the new stake:

Queen Creek Arizona Stake
Cloud Creek Ward
Creekside Ward
Desert Wells Ward
Founders Park Ward
Hawes Ward
Montelena Ward
Orchard Ranch Ward
Pegasus Ward
Queen Creek Ward (Spanish)
Stonecrest Ward
Terra Ranch Ward

Queen Creek Arizona Chandler Heights Stake
Centennial Ward
Chandler Heights Ward
Greenfield Acres Ward
Ocotillo Ward
San Tan Park Ward
Seville Park Ward
Seville Ward
Shamrock Farms Ward
Sossaman Estates Ward
La Palma Branch (Correctional Facility)

Queen Creek Arizona East Stake
Castlegate Ward
Creekside Ward
Morningside Ward
Pecan Creek 1st Ward
Pecan Creek 2nd Ward
Pecan Grove Ward
Pecan Ranch Ward
Sierra Ranch Ward
Sierra Vista Ward

Queen Creek Arizona North Stake
Cambria Ward
Cortina 1st Ward
Cortina 2nd Ward
Cortina 3rd Ward
Cortina 4th Ward
Crismon Ward
Desert Mountain Ward
Ironwood Crossing 1st Ward
Ironwood Crossing 2nd Ward
Ironwood Ward
Ranch Ward
Remington Heights Ward
Rittenhouse Ward
Vineyard Ward

Queen Creek Arizona South Stake
Brenner Pass Ward
Morning Sun Ward
San Tan Heights Ward
Sierra Vista Ward
Skyline Ward
Stone Creek Ward

Matt said...

Here are the wards for the new Queen Creek AZ West Stake

Cortina 1st Ward
Cortina 2nd Ward
Cortina 3rd Ward
Cortina 4th Ward
Hawes Ward
Ocotillo Ward
Remington Heights Ward
Sossaman Estates Ward

Mike Johnson said...

The Queen Creek Arizona West Stake was created on 21 September. There are 8 wards in the stake:

Cortina 1st Ward
Cortina 2nd Ward
Cortina 3rd Ward
Cortina 4th Ward
Hawes Ward
Ocotillo Ward
Remington Heights Ward
Sossaman Estates Ward

Adam said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Adam said...

Looks like the two stakes in the Davao, Philippines split to create a third stake on Sep 14. The new stake is called the Davao West stake , and contains 5 wards and two branches.

There are now twenty wards shared between the three stakes in the area. This area is also the most economically developed city in Mindanao (the large southern Island of the Philippines.) A lot of people have been placing a new temple in Cagayan de Oro because of it's location, but if a temple is going to be put in Mindanao it will likely be Davao because they would have the members needed to support it. Davao's three stakes have 8,7, and 5 wards, while CDO has 5,5, and 4. They likely don't even have 100 AFTPMPB needed to staff sufficiently staff the wards and stakes, let alone to add the callings needed at a temple. But seeing that a stake just split in Davao means that they do meet those requirements. Still probably a couple years off but when they eventually do put a temple south of Cebu, Davao would be my guess.

Cliff said...

In just a tad over 17 hours, I think these two will be announced:

Layton, Utah
Brasilia, Brazil

MainTour said...

Conference Temple Recap: No New Temples.

However they expect to complete at least five temples next year.

They do have a lot scheduled for some unique locations and probably need to really focus on getting more significant progress made on those.

John Pack Lambert said...

Considering it often takes a few years to complete a temple, I would not be surprised if we see a temple announced for Davao soon. However, I doubt it will be before ground is broken for the second temple on Luzon.