More than 71,000 Full-Time Missionaries Serving and Predictions for New Missions in 2024

In his General Conference address yesterday, Elder Neil L. Andersen mentioned that there are more than 71,000 full-time missionaries serving throughout the world. This marks an increase of at least 8,456 full-time missionaries serving from year-end 2022 when there were 62,544 full-time missionaries serving - a 13.5% increase in nine months. This is a major increase in the number of members serving full-time missions within a short period of time. The Church would have an increase of 11,275 missionaries by year-end 2023 for a total of 73,819 if the assumption is made that the average of 939.56 more missionaries serving each month is sustained until the end of December. Since 1978, there have been only two years when the number of full-time missionaries serving has increased at a more rapid rate: 2022 (14.7%) and 2013 (40.8%). However, these two years had artificially higher numbers of new missionaries serving because of delays in members serving missions from prior years due to the COVID-19 pandemic (2022) and the lowering of the minimum age for missionary service (2013). The next year with the highest percentage increase in the number of full-time missionaries was 1989 when there was a 10.0% increase in the number of missionaries serving compared to year-end 1988. 

It is unclear what is driving this acceleration in the number of full-time missionaries serving. Members postponing full-time missionary service due to the COVID-19 pandemic may account for some of this increase, although this likely accounts for a small percentage of recently called full-time missionaries given that it appears that most members who postponed missionary service began their service in 2022. I made a post in early July 2023 about additional details regarding the number of full-time missionaries serving, as the Church had disclosed during its annual new mission presidents training seminar that there were 67,800 full-time missionaries serving as of June 2023. The Church at the time also predicted that there may be as many as 72,000 full-time missionaries serving by the end of 2023. As I noted in my post in July, "This increase has occurred even though there is a smaller demographic of mission-aged young adults in the Church (which is supported by historical children-of-record annual increase numbers, which did not surpass 100,000 until 2008), suggesting an increasing percentage of young single adults serving full-time missions." Currently, the number of full-time missionaries serving has surpassed the number of full-time missionaries serving in year-end 2016 (70,946) - the most recent year that had more than 70,000 missionaries serving. Only three years have had more full-time missionaries serving than at present: 2015 (74,079), 2013 (83,035), and 2014 (85,147). 

A statistic that can give insights into full-time missionary service is the percentage of church membership currently serving full-time missions. See the graph below. As of year-end 2022, 0.37% of church membership were serving a full-time mission - comparable to the percentage of membership serving full-time missions in the late 2000s and early 2010s. However, approximately 0.55% of church membership was serving full-time missions between the late 1980s and early 2000s. To put this into perspective, if 0.55% of church membership were serving full-time missions as of year-end 2022, there would be 93,514 full-time missionaries serving. The decrease in the percentage of church membership serving missions since the early 2000s appears attributed to gentrification of church membership caused by decreased birth rates, low member activity rates in most of the countries with the largest church memberships, and potentially lower rates of full-time missionary service among young adults, particularly in countries where the Church reports large numbers of members.

The number of convert baptisms also increased by 25% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the first quarter of 2022 as I noted in my July 2023 post. If this trend continues for the rest of 2023, there will be an increase in the number of convert baptisms that is approximately twice the rate of the increase in the number of full-time missionaries. If this rate continues for the rest of the year (i.e., if there are 25% more convert baptisms in 2023 compared to 2022), there would be 265,215 convert baptisms for the year - the highest reported by the Church since 2014 when there were 296,803 convert baptisms. If there are 72,000 missionaries serving at the end of 2023, then there will be an average of 3.68 convert baptisms per missionary. However, the number of converts baptized would remain below many years between 1989 and 1999 when there were as many as 330,877 converts baptized in a single year (1990). The average number of converts baptized per missionary has decreased substantially over the past several decades from a high of 8.03 in 1989 to a low of 2.43 in 2020 (see graph below).

Finally, an increase in the number of full-time missionaries serving raises the likelihood that the Church will organize new missions to accommodate this increase, especially if it is anticipated that this increase will be sustained in the coming years. The Church reached an all-time high of 421 missions in 2016 and 2017. There are currently 414 missions worldwide. If the Church were to keep its ratio of 152 missionaries per mission as of year-end 2022 and there are 72,000 missionaries by the end of 2023, the Church would need to have a net increase of 62 missions in 2024 to maintain this ratio. However, decisions on where new missions will be organized will likely depend on what world region recent increases in the number of full-time missionaries serving has come from, with new missions most likely to be organized in the world regions with the greatest increases in the number of new full-time missionaries serving. See below for a list locations that appear likely to have new missions created in the near future along with the number of stakes/districts/mission branches likely to be assigned to each mission if it is organized. Coincidentally, there are 100 locations listed below. I did not plan to have a nice, round number like this, and it instead came from reviewing current mission boundaries and identifying what locations appear most likely to have missions organized given a combination of factors such as the size of the population to be served by the mission, current church infrastructure in the area, recent growth trends, and opportunities for expansion (rarely are locations on this list a perfect combination of all four of these factors and instead many of these prospective mission locations are based on just one or two criteria being met). This list was initially posted on this blog in March 2023, and it has been updated given these recent developments with increases in the number of full-time missionaries.

AFRICA (25 missions)

• Cote d'Ivoire Daloa (1 stake, 6 districts) 
• Democratic Republic of the Congo Likasi (3 stakes)
  
• Democratic Republic of the Congo Kinshasa (third mission) (4 stakes)
  
• Gabon Libreville (4 mission branches)
  
• Ghana Accra (third mission) (4-5 stakes)
  
• Ghana Koforidua (3 stakes, 2 districts)
  
• Ghana Kumasi (second mission) (2-3 stakes, 2-3 districts)
  
• Ghana Takoradi (2 stakes, 2 districts) 
• Ghana Tamale (1 district)
  
• Kenya Eldoret (3 districts)
• Kenya Nairobi (second mission) (1-2 stakes, 1-3 districts)
• Liberia Gbarnga (5 mission branches)
  
• Liberia Monrovia (second mission) (3 stakes)
  
• Malawi Lilongwe (2 districts) 
• Mauritius and Reunion (2 districts)
  
• Nigeria Benin City (second mission) (4-5 stakes)
• Nigeria Calabar (4 stakes, 1 district)
• Nigeria Eket (6 stakes)
  
• Nigeria Lagos (second mission) (4 stakes)
• Nigeria Makurdi (3 districts)
  
• Nigeria Warri (3 stakes, 3 districts)
• Senegal Dakar (1 district, several mission branches in neighboring countries)
  
• Sierra Leone Bo (4 stakes, 1 district) 
• Sierra Leone Freetown (second mission) (2-3 stakes, 1 district)
  
• Togo Lome (2 stakes)

ASIA (9 missions)

• Georgia Tbilisi (2 mission branches) 
  
• Korea Daejeon (4 stakes)
  
• Middle East/African North Service Mission (2 stakes, 3 districts) 
• Philippines General Santos (3 stakes, 3 districts)
  
• Philippines Ormoc (3 stakes, 4 districts)
  
• Philippines Palawan/Mindoro (1 stake, 4 districts)
  
• Philippines Tuguegarao (3 stakes, 2 districts) 
• Sri Lanka Colombo (1 district)
  
• Thailand Ubon (1 stake, 1 district)

EUROPE (10 missions)

• Austria Vienna (2 stakes)
  
• Belgium Brussels (2 stakes)
• France Paris (second mission) (3 stakes) 
• France Toulouse (2 stakes)
  
• Germany Düsseldorf (2 stakes) 
• Iceland Reykjavik (4 mission branches)
  
• Ireland Dublin (2 stakes, 1 district) 
• Italy Palermo (1 stake)
  
• Portugal Porto (3 stakes)
• Spain Granada (5 stakes)
  

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (33 missions)

• Argentina Buenos Aires (fifth mission) (5-6 stakes)
  
• Argentina Posadas (2 stakes, 5 districts)
• Argentina Tucumán (4 stakes, 1 district) 
• Belize Belmopan (2 districts)
  
• Bolivia Riberalta (3 districts)
• Bolivia Tarija (4 stakes, 2 districts)
  
• Brazil Juazeiro do Norte (1 stake, 2 districts, 2 mission branches)
  
• Brazil Joinville (5 stakes)
  
• Brazil Manaus (second mission) (5-6 stakes)
• Brazil Novo Hamburgo (6 stakes, 1 district) 
• Brazil Porto Velho (2 stakes)
  
• Brazil São Luís (2 stakes)
• Brazil São Paulo (sixth mission) (4-5 million, ~7 stakes)
• Brazil Sorocaba (5 stakes, 2 districts)
• Chile La Serena (3 stakes, 3 districts) 
• Colombia Bucaramanga (4 stakes)
  
• Cuba Havana (1 district)
• Ecuador Machala (4 stakes, 1 district) 
• Mexico Acapulco (3 stakes, 1 district)
• Mexico Ciudad Obregón (3 stakes, 3 districts)
  
• Mexico Coatzacoalcos (3 stakes, 3 districts)
  
• Mexico Juchitán (3 stakes, 4 districts) 
• Mexico Morelia (4 stakes, 1 district)
  
• Mexico Reynosa (5 stakes, 1 district)
• Mexico San Luis Potosí (3 stakes)
  
• Mexico Tijuana (second mission) (5 stakes)
• Mexico Toluca (3 stakes)
  
• Panama Panama City (second mission) - (3-4 stakes, 1-3 districts)
  
• Peru Lima (seventh mission) (6-7 stakes)
• Peru Pisco (4 stakes, 2 districts)
  
• Peru Pucallpa (2 stakes) 
• Peru Puno (3 stakes)
• Peru Tacna (5 stakes)
  

NORTH AMERICA (16 missions)

• Arizona Scottsdale (~10 stakes)
  
• Canada Toronto (second mission) (4 stakes)
• Colorado Grand Junction (5 stakes)
  
• Connecticut Hartford (5 stakes)
  
• Florida Orland (second mission) (5 stakes)
• Georgia Macon (5 stakes)
• Idaho Nampa (~20 stakes)
  
• Illinois Peoria (4 stakes)
  
• Missouri Springfield (5 stakes) 
• Nevada Las Vegas (3 mission) (10 stakes)
  
• North Carolina Raleigh (second mission) (6-7 stakes)
• Ohio Cleveland (5 stakes)
  
• Oklahoma Tulsa (5 stakes)
• Pennsylvania Harrisburg (6 stakes)
• Texas Longview (5 stakes)
  
• Wyoming Casper (5 stakes)
  

OCEANIA (7 missions)

• Australia Brisbane (second mission) (~6 stakes)
  
• Australia Sydney (second mission) (~6 stakes)
• French Polynesia (second mission) (~5 stakes) 
• Kiribati Tarawa (2 stakes, 3 districts)
  
• Papua New Guinea Daru (1 stake, 3 districts)
  
• Samoa (second mission) (~12 stakes)
  
• Solomon Islands Honiara (1 district)