Monday, November 28, 2022

The End of Growth? Fading Prospects for Latter-day Saint Expansion

David Stewart, a colleague of mine who has collaborated on research regarding the growth and missionary program of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints at cumorah.com, recently published an article in the Journal of the Mormon Social Science Association entitled: The End of Growth? Fading Prospects for Latter-day Saint Expansion. The article can be accessed here. This article masterfully chronicles declining growth rates in the Church during the past several decades and identifies institutional and societal factors that appear primarily responsible for lackluster growth rates.

83 comments:

Ohhappydane33 said...

I know I have posted this before, but it is looking very likely, since December is just days away, that the number of announced temples will easily exceed the net growth of stakes for the year. Has this ever happened before?

Anonymous said...

Remember the allegory in Jacob Chapter 5? Food for thought.

Gnesileah said...

I enjoy David Stewart's research and very much. In 2002, I was so passionate about sharing his writing on missionary work, I printed it off, assembled it in a binder, and shared it with the local missionaries in South Carolina and with the mission presidency counselor. David does highlight sober realities that we must be aware of.

I came on here tonight to follow-up on a comment someone made several weeks ago about temples located in municipalities other than for those which they are named after, and it made me wonder which specific temples fall in that category. Using a variety of sources, I attempted to identify them.

Here is a link to download the spreadsheet: https://www85.zippyshare.com/v/8dNWlHBU/file.html
Or if you prefer, a PDF version: https://www85.zippyshare.com/v/xka0CZDd/file.html

In summary, of the 255 known temple sites, 13 are not named after any municipality.
An additional 81 are not named after the municipality the temple is physically located in.
Of those 81, 39 are located in municipalities different from those identified in the postal address.

Gnesileah said...

The 13 temples that are not named after any municipality are:

Temple | Postal Location | Incorporated Municipality

Jordan River Utah Temple | South Jordan | South Jordan City
Mount Timpanogos Utah Temple | American Fork | American Fork City
Winter Quarters Nebraska Temple | Omaha | City of Omaha
Columbia River Washington Temple | Richland | City of Richland
Oquirrh Mountain Utah Temple | South Jordan | South Jordan City
The Gila Valley Arizona Temple | Central | Unincorporated (Central CDP)
Star Valley Wyoming Temple | Afton | Town of Afton
Feather River California Temple | Yuba City | City of Yuba City
Red Cliffs Utah Temple | St. George | City of St. George
Deseret Peak Utah Temple | Tooele | Tooele City
Heber Valley Utah Temple | Heber City | Heber City
Willamette Valley Oregon Temple | Springfield | City of Springfield
Teton River Idaho Temple | Rexburg | City of Rexburg

Gnesileah said...

The 81 temples named after a municipality, but not the one in which it is physically located within: (*one of the 39 temples located in a municipality that does not match the postal location)

Temple | Postal Location | Incorporated Municipality

*Laie Hawaii Temple | Laie | City and County of Honolulu
*Bern Switzerland Temple | Zollikofen | Commune of Münchenbuchsee
*London England Temple | Lingfield | Felbridge Civil Parish
*Washington D.C. Temple | Kensington | Unincorporated (South Kensington CDP)
Seattle Washington Temple | Bellevue | City of Bellevue
Atlanta Georgia Temple | Sandy Springs | City of Sandy Springs
Nuku'alofa Tonga Temple | Nuku'alofa | District of Nukunuku
*Sydney Australia Temple | Carlingford | City of Parramatta
Manila Philippines Temple | Quezon City | City of Quezon
*Stockholm Sweden Temple | Västerhaninge | Haninge Municipality
Chicago Illinois Temple | Glenview | Village of Glenview
Buenos Aires Argentina Temple | Ciudad Evita | Ciudad Evita
Denver Colorado Temple | Centennial | City of Centennial
Frankfurt Germany Temple | Friedrichsdorf | Town of Friedrichsdorf
Portland Oregon Temple | Lake Oswego | City of Lake Oswego
*Las Vegas Nevada Temple | Las Vegas | Unincorporated (Sunrise Manor CDP)
Toronto Ontario Temple | Brampton | City of Brampton
*Orlando Florida Temple | Windermere | Unincorporated (Lake Butler CDP)
*Hong Kong China Temple | Kowloon Tong | Kowloon City
*St. Louis Missouri Temple | St. Louis | City of Town and County
Preston England Temple | Chorley | Borough of Chorley
*Spokane Washington Temple | Spokane | Unincorporated
*Columbia South Carolina Temple | Hopkins | Unincorporated
Detroit Michigan Temple | Bloomfield Hills | City of Bloomfield Hills
Raleigh North Carolina Temple | Apex | Town of Apex
St. Paul Minnesota Temple | Oakdale | City of Oakdale
Kona Hawaii Temple | Kailua-Kona | Town of Kailua-Kona
*Albuquerque New Mexico Temple | Albuquerque | Unincorporated
*Louisville Kentucky Temple | Crestwood | City of Pewee Valley
*Palmyra New York Temple | Palmyra | Town of Manchester
Medford Oregon Temple | Central Point | City of Central Point
Memphis Tennessee Temple | Bartlett | City of Bartlett
Tampico Mexico Temple | Ciudad Madero | Ciudad Madero
Nashville Tennessee Temple | Franklin | City of Franklin
Montreal Quebec Temple | Longueuil | City of Longueuil
*San José Costa Rica Temple | La Ribera | Canton of Belén
*Adelaide Australia Temple | Marden | City of Norwood, Payneham & St Peters
*Melbourne Australia Temple | Wantirna South | City of Knox

Gnesileah said...

Veracruz Mexico Temple | Boca del Río | City of Boca del Río
*Caracas Venezuela Temple | Caracas | Municipio Baruta
*Houston Texas Temple | Spring | Unincorporated
Birmingham Alabama Temple | Gardendale | City of Gardendale
Boston Massachusetts Temple | Belmont | Town of Belmont
Guadalajara Mexico Temple | Zapopán | City of Zapopán
*Perth Australia Temple | Yokine | City of Sterling
The Hague Netherlands Temple | Zoetermeer | City of Zoetermeer
*Accra Ghana Temple | Accra | Cantonments
Manhattan New York Temple | New York | New York City
*Sacramento California Temple | Rancho Cordova | Unincorporated
Helsinki Finland Temple | Espoo | City and Municipality of Espoo
Vancouver British Columbia Temple | Langley | Township of Langley
*Kyiv Ukraine Temple | Kyiv | Vyshneve Urban Hromada
*San Salvador El Salvador Temple | Colonia San Benito | City of Antiguo Cuscatlán
Tegucigalpa Honduras Temple | Comayagüela | City of Comayagüela
Fort Lauderdale Florida Temple | Davie | Town of Davie
Trujillo Peru Temple | Huanchaco | City of Huanchaco
Indianapolis Indiana Temple | Carmel | City of Carmel
Hartford Connecticut Temple | Farmington | Town of Farmington
*Paris France Temple | Versailles | Commune of Le Chesnay-Rocquencourt
*Tucson Arizona Temple | Tucson | Unincorporated (Catalina Foothills CDP)
*Meridian Idaho Temple | Meridian | Unincorporated
*Barranquilla Colombia Temple | Barranquilla | Municipality of Puerto Colombia
*Lisbon Portugal Temple | Lisbon | Municipality of Loures
*Arequipa Peru Temple | Arequipa | Village of Carmen Alto
*Durban South Africa Temple | Umhlanga | City of Blackburn
Quito Ecuador Temple | Cumbayá | San Pedro de Cumbayá
*Urdaneta Philippines Temple | Urdaneta | Municipality of Villasis
*Richmond Virginia Temple | Glen Allen | Unincorporated
Alabang Philippines Temple | Muntinlupa | City of Muntinlupa
*Mendoza Argentina Temple | Mendoza | City of Las Heras
Pittsburgh Pennsylvania Temple | Cranberry Township | Cranberry Township
Pago Pago American Samoa Temple | Tāfuna | Village of Tāfuna
Freetown Sierra Leone Temple | Kossoh Town | Kossoh Town
*Tarawa Kiribati Temple | Tarawa | South Tarawa
Torreón Mexico Temple | Gómez Palacio | City of Gómez Palacio
*Singapore Temple | Singapore | West Coast (town council)
*Tampa Florida Temple | Valrico | Bloomingdale (CDP)
Knoxville Tennessee Temple | Farragut | Town of Farragut
Fort Worth Texas Temple | Burleson | City of Burleson
*Grand Rapids Michigan Temple | Grand Rapids | City of Kentwood
Wellington New Zealand Temple | Porirua | City of Porirua

Gnesileah said...

Sorry to flood this chat section...
If anyone has corrections to the info above, please let me know. Thanks.

Unknown said...

@Gnesileah, thanks for the link to that very interesting David Stewart article. My background is economics, so I enjoyed seeing him draw on some ideas from that field in his writing. While I am sure some here will take exception with the article for a variety of reasons (and indeed there were parts where I think he misses the mark) the overall point that Adventists and Jehovah's Witnesses outperform us in ways that suggest some serious problems in our approach should not be dismissed. The line that, to me, succinctly summarizes the problems with missionary work as currently conducted today was "member-missionaries also spend far more time 'attending meetings, planning, and coordinating' than in personal interactions with non-members".

--Felix

Michael Worley said...

I'm a very optimistic member, and this reminds me of periods in the Book of Mormon where some groups apostatized and others thrived.

Michael Worley said...

Specifically, the growth and miracles we see in Africa (members having dreams about the church before they find the church) suggest to me growth there in particular will be sustained, that God is in control, and the growth there (and in other places-- maybe someday Russia, the islands, who knows) will bless those of us in more established areas.

The proper comparison is not with other churches but whether God's hand is in wherever our church is at.

James said...

Really fascinating, Matt - thanks for sharing! Can't wait to dig in and read it fully.

Africa is the real wild card here. The main question in my mind is whether the growth we see in Africa now is reminiscent of Chile and other areas, where the growth was in many cases non-sustainable and real conversion was lacking, or if the church is establishing foundational growth that won't dissipate in coming years. It does seem that many countries with strong membership have a strong first "harvest" that doesn't replicate after establishment. It's hard to imagine Mexico ever having the growth it experienced in prior decades, for example. Predicting that African nations would somehow be different and create permanent strong growth doesn't seem to be supported by the data.

From a societal perspective, the church is appealing to Africans in part because of its traditional/conservative stance on things like gay marriage. If the church tries to rein back in more progressive people in other areas of the world, it could face backlash from places like Africa. I saw Stewart refer to this as "switching costs" - an apt term to use borrowed from economics.

Michael Worley said...

I think the church's efforts in Africa rely more heavily on same-continent missionaries, a substantial difference then earlier first generation efforts. In addition, advances like BYU Pathway Worldwide and emotional/physical self-reliance courses allow the church to teach its doctrines in a more applicable way, perhaps lowering inactivity in this "first harvest."

Melody Nelson Walden said...

No matter how hard I try, I cannot convince others in my ward to participate in missionary work. We have a very few (3-4)people who will, the rest do not. Nor do they feel like they are shirking their duty, or have any "guilt " about not doing it. In the article, Elder Ballard is quoted as saying only 3%-5% regularly participate in missionary work, so my ward is not alone. The Church will not grow significantly without member involvement. Also, our full-time elders are frequently too busy with "mission things" to teach, or meet people. I can't understand it. They tell me they had a busy week, but they didn't teach anyone. ????

Anonymous said...

While at BYU-Idaho I learned lots of good applicable doctrine and church teachings that isn’t widely taught at church. Was very good.

Pascal Friedmann said...

This is definitely relatable. When I was a missionary there was a short district meeting every week (usually about an hour) and then either zone conference or interviews with the mission president every six weeks. The rest of the time was spent finding and teaching, which amounted to well over 8 hours every day except for the one day of zone conference every three months (usually an all-day event including travel).

Our missionaries here average 15 to 20 lessons a week but the impression I'm getting is that the time they spend proselytizing is absolutely shorter than it was for us a mere 10 years ago. In fact, they have said more than once that they actually struggle to find time to invest into finding.

Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

On a previous topic (about the Church helping with infrastructure projects), church members provided donations/helped fix up parts of a children's hospital in Puerto Rico:

https://youtu.be/7BgA7NXS9F0

The Spencers said...

It will be interesting to see what happens in China in the next few years. I believe it's in the Lord's timing that we have a prophet who speaks Chinese and another apostle who speaks Chinese and has diplomatic experience. Announcing a temple in Shanghai was a big step, but I have a feeling we will see amazing things happen there. Of course, drastic changes have to happen first, and I wonder if the current anti-lockdown uprisings might develop into something more.

Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

Other infrastructure examples:

The Church of Jesus Christ recently partnered with the NAACP to build/plant a garden in San Francisco (one of 5 projects they have planned over the next few years with the NAACP):

https://youtu.be/MS4xpe37li8

And of course, the Church's Helping Hands volunteer program often helps clean up/rebuild after hurricanes:

https://youtu.be/gyTTPqsbVX8

James said...

We face the same issue, Melody. Good insight on all counts.

I agree with you Michael. Said another way, I think the main issue is that the church needs to offer something worthwhile for people to want to join and stay, or to stay and invite others to join.

If the church wants to have more youth go on missions, it needs to enhance the missionary experience. If the church wants to have more converts, it needs to enhance the experience people have in the church. Simply claiming that the church has the truth isn't going to do it for most people. They want the church to provide a high-quality product, not simply demand faithfulness without anything in return.

BYU Pathway Worldwide is a great example of the good the church can offer that will appeal to people.

This is a pressing issue because other alternatives (secular and religious) are adapting to meet the demands of people seeking community, spirituality, social circles, morals, etc.

Kimberley in San Diego said...

I found the Stewart article to be very discouraging. What a contrast to the wonderful news about growth through temple building. I'm wondering how others cope with the negative implications of these findings.

Matt said...

Great comments everyone!

Kimberley in San Diego - What I would say in response to your comment is that the temple building is in response to growth, but it is not from recent growth in most places. It is growth that has occurred over many decades in most of these locations. Also, something that is not reported to the public are data regarding member involvement in temple work. We have seen a major increase in member involvement in providing their own family members. Nowadays, probably most ordinances done are family file names, whereas even a decade ago family file names were not that common. The discouraging news on growth is not something new. I began interested in studying church growth 20 years ago when I was finishing high school, and for those who are familiar with the numbers, the early 2000s were a pretty bleak time in terms of a net decline of stakes in 2002 and essentially stagnant congregational growth. Much of the growth in the 1980s and 1990s was not "real" growth, but it looked impressive on paper. This makes it difficult for us to compare now and then. Some of the greatest challenges in the Church now are with retaining converts for the long term (i.e., 5+ years) and keeping congregations stable while simultaneously expanding into new areas. This latter one is the reason why the Church has such a limited presence in most nations with a Church presence - the existing "centers of strength" were never able to become self-sufficient or a true center of strength.

Danny said...

Temples are being built closer in proximity to the stakes of zion across the world. This represents growth. Growing from a utah / USA church, to a church where you can receive all the blessings of the temple locally regardless of location.

It represents growth in terms of member activity. This is a bit of a chicken egg thing but as President Nelson has said, it is easier to build temples than it is to become a temple going people, so hence the focus on becoming such.

ND Reynolds said...

By far, BY FAR, the most serious section of this article is Philosophy and Worldview. It covers two very serious faults in church thinking that I see in myself at times, very often at church, and now in the blog comments. Oh, all is well, we are told. Don't worry about it.
I am a poorly reactivated member of the church, and I DO love this religion but it scares me how unseriously members find it. They don't know what's out there.
Oh, we are told, don't worry. All is well.
I admit it gives me comfort to hear statements like this...but sometimes, just sometimes, I would like to see my faith rewarded.

Michael Worley said...

Thanks, ND Reynolds, for your thoughts. I reflected more seriously on the piece and the section you referenced tonight. You might find this talk a better articulation of proper thinking than some of these comments-- including, perhaps, my own!

https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/study/general-conference/2022/04/41christofferson?lang=eng

John Pack Lambert said...

Lai'e is in Lai'e. It should never be on a list of temples not in the place they are named for. Lai'e is not in some ways a technical municipality, but it is a known place, and nothing is more clearly within it than the Temple. To understand what is going on, if today it was decided that Provo and Utah County should merge, and the decision was to call the resulting place The city and county of Provo, this would not mean that the Payson Temple was not in or named after Payson.

That is essentially what happened with Lai'e.

President Nelson has a vision of making the temple integral to the experience of all members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. This is going to require many more temples than we have had in the past. This will mean that we will need a much higher temples to stakes ratio, which at times will mean more temples announced than stakes organized.

That said, there was some year just after 2000 when there was a negative number of stakes organized. So if any temples were announced that year, the number of temples announced exceeded the net number of stakes organized.

John Pack Lambert said...

The Hong Kong temple is within the boundaries of "Hong Kong". That term refers to a special administrative district of China, not to a municipality per se. I think this reduces to at most 79 the number of temples not in their designated place.

John Pack Lambert said...

Growth is not always in new baptisms. There is also a growth in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints of existing members. Also growth in numbers does not always equal growth in total units because of changing decisions of ideal unit size. Temples are a result of real growth in numbers and member commitment, but this is not always the same as a growth of total units in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

John Pack Lambert said...

The leaders of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints are very aware of issues facing the Church and are trying to do many things to try and ensure that we can bring as many people to Christ as possible. There may be ways that many things can be improved. However I doubt generalized attacks on the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints as a whole will lead to solutions.

Alex said...

Alabang Philippines Temple | Muntinlupa | City of Muntinlupa

Alabang is not a municipality but a barangay (cities and municipalities are further divided into barangays) of Muntinlupa so technically the temple is still in the vicinity of the City.

John Pack Lambert said...

Attending the temple and receiving the blessings there is central to being a fully participating member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Thus, to bring people into the temple consistently we need the temples where the people are.

For various reasons, historically many have been baptized with no easy prospects of ever going to the temple. Still, having a temple is key to people fully embracing the faith.

Looked at from this perspective it is crazy that the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints grows at all in countries and regions that do not have a temple.

Also looked at from this perspective even if not one more person was ever baptized we would need many temples in places that do not even have one announced.

Chris D. said...

Now Wellington New Zealand Temple site is located north of the city in Porirua New Zealand, near the Porirua Stake.

ND Reynolds said...

Thank You. I have not given up. All I can see is my own useless little ward, but we have had some amazing growth factors within the last year or so. (even, sneakily, a convert from the Adentist movement.)

Matt said...

Other Matt here...

As a single adult myself, I can attest the Church as a whole, does very little to help Singles in the Church stay active. Having a YSA Ward or the occasional singles potluck in the Relief Society Room is not enough.

Currently over 90% of singles over the age 30 in the church are inactive. If over half of the church is single, (with 90% inactive) makes family formation and marriage that much more difficult to obtain inside the Church.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

I wonder what year Nephi was describing in 1st Nephi, Chapter 14, verse 12:

"... I beheld the church of the Lamb of God, and its numbers were few, because of the wickedness and abominations of the whore who sat upon many waters; nevertheless, I beheld that the church of the Lamb, who were the saints of God, were also upon all the face of the earth..."

Hank said...

Looking over facts and figures offers a great opportunity to ask the Lord again how he wants us to do his work done. We have great opportunities of continual revelation within the gospel, I am excited for systems to change and grow. I think belief in this change is a vital part of our faith in continual restoration.

I think it is vital to consider our personal responsibility in all of this along the lines of D&C 4.

Chris D. said...

This Meetinghouse is misplaced on the Meetinghouse Locator website.

https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/maps/meetinghouses/@21.027274,47.380005,9s&id=meetinghouse:5017742-01-01

Eduardo said...

I can empathize with evangelical and missionary frustration. I was missionary leader for a little over four years (I think), and we did not baptize many people. We did activate a few, however, and some of them went to the temple. It is easy to think of negative things and lack of success when sharing the Gospel of our Lord, and to take it personally. However, I do think there is faith development and growth involved, and invitations not taken or overtures rejected eventually become moot and the light of Christ and love and patience prevail. God prevails, we are Israel.
I can definitely focus on positive things. I baptized a young man last year who is about to go on a full time mission. Things are looking good in many countries, hopefully our Church aid has helped in ravaged Pakistan and elsewhere.

The Good news is growing whether we recognize it or not. The prophecies of God are being fulfilled. Be of good cheer, let your heart be not troubled. Words of the Savior are true and encouraging.

Eduardo said...

That was a reference to the last time that I was called to that position. I was mission leader in 3 other units before, and we did pretty well at teaching, baptizing, and retaining our converts. I guess all told my Mission Leader time adds up to 1 plus 2 plus 1 plus 4. 8 years!

Lots of good experiences and memories, and all of them worth it, I believe.

The world is becoming less faithful when it comes to belief and following covenants of God, but the people of God, Israel, is prevailing.

Especially in the Kingdom of the those that have passed on, our kindred dead. It helps when the living choose to pay attention and follow Christ, however. Let us do this while living.

miro said...

The church reworked CDOL (Church Directory of Organisations and Leaders). Now I can only search for a leader or Organisation. (Just one Search Field nothing more). Before i could go to advanced search and E.G. search for all stakes, distircts, wards branches that have been set to active in the last E:G. 30 days.
I also had access to global / area or country statistics.

How is it for others of you that have access to CDOL?

Roberts said...

Some thoughts:

1) I am not seeing Jehovah's Witnesses or Seventh-day Adventists outperforming us. At all. I've never been able to see their growth and vitality how David Stewart sees it. How many 7DA people does anyone know (I have had several JW students, but they have all been "inactive")? They have large numbers in 3rd world countries, but from those I have known in "civilian life" and on my mission, they have much larger struggles with activity, retention, and activation than we do. I cannot for the life of me understand why JW and 7DA are such a model to emulate for David Stewart.

2) Our missionary program is not really a missionary program, as such, and is really an activity and social program for young adults. There are so many more meetings and activities, and so much less attempts and time spent on finding than previously. It really is an attempt to keep young adults from going inactive or leaving the Church, but ironically, I think the lack of rigor and actual missionary work actually causes more problems with those things than it prevents. There is so much coddling to prevent "anxiety" and "depression," that the mission experience and effort is a hollow shell of what it used to be. And the numbers show it --- it should come as no surprise that we just don't find and baptize very many people any more.

3) Everyone is ecstatic about wild growth in Africa, but I'm seeing indications that we are going to have the same problems with real growth and activity that we know so well from Central/South America and the Philippines. We hear about how valiant, innocent, and hard-working African missionaries are, but I've heard from friends who have served there that there is a lot of laziness (like, not wanting to leave the house and do anything) and law of chastity violations from the African missionaries that has been a big source of frustration for their companions from the West. And mission presidents tell these frustrated missionaries that we can't "lower the boom" and insist on standards because of culture.

4) I think that the Church has always had retention problems, and that isn't a surprise because the gospel is demanding and people are not always up to the task (there are even parables of Jesus to this effect --- gospel net, the sower, etc.). There is a difference between baptizing anyone who is willing to be baptized and ensuring that converts are committed and understand. Despite our best efforts to do the latter, we are always going to have a lot of attrition, and the high growth areas historically and currently are among cultures where it is very easy to convince people to be baptized --- but lasting commitment and dedication are very rare and fleeting.

5) I think it's going to become increasingly obvious that temples are no longer a sign of strength in areas; they are more of a "branding" or appearances thing. Many announced temples are going to have few patrons and few workers, and will be closed most of the time. It didn't help that we were being told of the importance of gathering Israel on both sides of the veil when temples were closed for over two years and then only opened through the phased openings that made it very difficult to attend. And that after President Nelson had told us that our temples would open when local laws allowed (all temples remained closed for a long time, even in areas that had no restrictions and they could have always remained opened, from a "local law" standpoint). Like local unit attendance, temple work and temple attendance were deeply impacted by the lengthy shutdown, and haven't recovered.

Roberts said...

Addendum to #4:

I think that we should continue baptizing people we can convince to be baptized. Who can forbid water, that these should not be baptized? The problem is that we are largely able to baptize people of this sort. Almost no converts have a fervent belief in the reality of the Restoration --- they join because of friends, because there is good in the Church, because of assistance, etc., but most do not have a "I believe these things are true, and I'm tying my fate and fortune to it" belief.

I also see value in reactivating later, because some of these develop stronger faith later and come back when found/invited, so it is a good thing that they are on the rolls of the Church. This is a huge burden and drag on local members, though --- the barnacles of inactives, lost, and unfindable on every unit membership list.

John said...

I'm an assistant stake clerk, and finding historical positions is now wide open on CDOL. (I can now track down former bishops if I want to.) At the same time, I can't see who's on my own stake's high council.

Mario Miguel said...

https://www.thechurchnews.com/members/2022/12/1/23436710/strengthening-young-single-adults-notice-callings-committees-gathering-places

Jim Anderson said...

Utah population growth figures were shared Thursday in a KSL news story.

61k overall, with Utah County accounting for a third of it. Salt Lake County only added about 10k.

Total Utah County population is 707k estimated now, Salt Lake is at 1.2 million.

Members make up the lion's share of resodents in Utah County, half or less of Salt Lake County.

about 125k members average for the Salt Lake County temples when all announced are finished and Salt Lake reopens, although Salt Lake will be a special case as many coming here to visit will want to go through it to do an endowment or something, conceivably between workers and members we could see 1k people inside it working when it reopens.

Utah County will have about 70k members per temple when all seven are up and running,

They will likely want to bbe sre there are more temples, as there will still be waits for getting appointments to do work at those that are open and with more people coming, and the activation of others, with those that are coming who are not members finding the church joining, they are surely not done announcing and building large temples in either county.

Michael Worley said...

I see lots of truth in "Unknown"'s comments: But I have a few things to add.

1) Anxiety and depression are real things, and maybe they are sincerely more prominent today for a whole host of reasons outside of the control of our youth or their parents. (We have the internet and video games.) This doesn't mean hard work doesn't have its place (I look at how well hard work helped, say, Elder Uchtdorf in his career, in addition to the stereotypical "Idaho Farmboy" example), but I am saying world conditions and effects of those call for a sensitive analysis,

2) Unknown seems to rely heavily on the first part of this quote from President Nelson, but I think the second half is really relevant to the length of the COVID temple restrictions: "You may be wondering when you will be able to return to the temple. Answer: Your temple will be open when local government regulations allow it. When the incidence of COVID-19 in your area is within safe limits, your temple will be reopened. Do all you can to bring COVID numbers down in your area so that your temple opportunities can increase."

3) I see the emerging BYU Pathway Worldwide program a very real difference between previous eras of rapid growth and this one. I also think it will help all areas of the church build hard workers and improve retention, even if (as Unknown suggests, but I certainly don't confirm) native missionaries are struggling to live the mission rules t some degree.

Roberts said...

@Michael Worley:

1) Anxiety and depression are real things, and I think a lot of societal and parental factors are at play, as you note. I do think that coddling in general (not just in the Church; it bleeds over into the Church from society) contributes to it and makes it worse.

2) The second part of President Nelson's statement was all out of whack with the reality at the time --- especially given the length and extent of the "tiered" re-openings. They went on --- in each tier --- for far too long. I hope that the Church learned from this that there are real and lasting effects from closing church and preventing physical interaction.

3) I know that Pathway's focus now is in the developing world, and that is a very good thing. For people in the West, it is a hollow shell of what it started as. My wife was in the first group of Pathway-to-BYUI people, and as people have done it since then, they have sharply reduced available degrees and the experience. I don't understand why, given the demand for teaching from students, and the need for teachers, why Pathway doesn't offer teacher certification. Pathway tried to say that there isn't student demand for it, but that is patently wrong. Then, Pathway said that it's too complicated to get involved with. Given the need for teachers in other countries (including developing countries), why not use the vast Church resources to pioneer in this field? More LDS teachers is a very good thing for many reasons.

The people I know who have been disappointed and disillusioned by mission companion experiences in sub-Saharan Africa has been really disheartening (some are family, and some are kids I used to be the bishop of). Dating, violations of the law of chastity, and not wanting to leave the house and do any work at all run counter to the ideas we have of native missionaries. It was a big enough problem that some Westerners are going home, after repeated companions like that and mission presidents not wanting to offend the native missionaries.

Ohhappydane33 said...

I applaud recent efforts to address anxiety and depression in missionaries because, let's face it, it's always been there, even 30 years ago when I was out. It isn't "coddling."
Perhaps it's a recognition that living as an LDS missionary and everything that it entails for two years 24/7 isn't necessarily healthy psychologically for many people, and can, in fact, have just the opposite of a mission's intended effect and ultimately drive RMs away from the Church.

Ohhappydane33 said...

PS I know the Church basically likes to pretend otherwise, but many people are simply not cut out to be missionaries, either that or they do need significant support to stay on their missions. These are the ones that struggle as they try to fit their square selves into the round missionary holes.

James G. Stokes said...

Unknown, regarding your #2 point, I'd like to remind you that, unless I am mistaken, none of us here are privy to discussions at Church headquarters. With regard to temple reopenings, or any other COVID protocols and recommendations that played into those decisions, according to public comments from several Apostles, they frequently consulted with medical professionals and health experts, had weekly contact (virtually or by phone) with area, mission, and temple presidents, and used information from those efforts to mold the timing and conditions under which any aspect of Church activity was adjusted. President Nelson reminded us that "good inspiration is based on good information", and our Apostles followed that practice with regards to setting and adjusting protocol.

Since none of us were privy to those conversations, any analysis on our part about whether the timing should have been different will fall woefully short.

One other point for consideration: what if the Church had adjusted protocols in a "more timely manner" as you suggested and someone worshipping at Church or a temple caught COVID as a result? Some of the same people who seem to think the Church was too cautious might be inclined to insist in such a scenario that the Church be held legally and also perhaps criminally responsible for someone who caught COVID under such a situation.

With that in mind, since I'm not privy to the discussions that led to the timing and the duration of those restrictions, I would not consider it my prerogative to suggest that the process wasn't as timely as it should have been. If you disagree, then that's certainly your prerogative, but I always suggest erring on the side of believing that the Brethren had access to better information than I do.

And as one who took the time to ascertain for myself that each announcement and the timing thereof are in harmony with the will of the Lord, I have received that witness regarding the COVID protocols, and I testify as I often have that every detail unfolded as it should have and when it should have.

John Pack Lambert said...

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints just issued a directive that bishops and stake presidents are basically the only calling holders in YSA units that should be married. This is going to bring about significant changes.

Michael Worley said...

re: COVID, I will simply note that my personal view is that the Delta variant unfortunately caused far too much death to justify phase 4 reopenings prior to the end of the shift to the Omicron variant and subsequent end of the Winter 2021-22 surge.

I hope we engage more vigorously both with a strong work ethic and helping those with anxiety and depression. This shouldn't be an either/or.

I'm not an expert on the details of the degrees offered by pathway or the experience of missionaries in Africa, so I really can't comment as a factual matter beyond a (very general) faith and trust in the brethren and admiration for the (very imperfect) systems in place.

Anonymous said...

I just read a church news article about YSA ward & YSA stake leadership changes as noted by JPL. At first I was very surprised by the extent of the changes.

I'm still trying to digest how this would work in practice. I would hope there is flexibility to include 2-3 additional married adults at the YSA stake level where needed. Perhaps it will be found to be helpful to have the stake president's first counsellor and stake clerk also be mature, married, and experienced leaders, who can provide continuity. I say this because those two positions are crucial in supporting the stake president, high councilors, bishoprics, and stake organizations. In some cases it may even be helpful to have mature, married, and experienced leaders serve as 1-3 high councilors.

Requiring YSA bishops and YSA stake presidents must be married makes a ton of sense to me, but requiring that all callings except YSA bishops and YSA stake presidents be filled by a YSA has me a little worried (or very worried if units decide to implement it all at once).

Christopher Nicholson said...

A very good, very thorough article. The one issue I think he should have delved into more, though he touched on it briefly with his mention of the 2015 exclusion policy, is that some of the church's social values don't match the social values of most young people in the developed world. Full disclosure, this was a large part of my own recent departure from the church, but even as a member, I wouldn't have dared to try to get my classmates and colleagues to consider a church that condemns same-sex relationships and gives women almost zero authority. This probably fits under the topic of increasing secularism but I think it merits at least a couple paragraphs of specific discussion. People aren't adopting these "secular" social values because they reject religion - it's exactly the other way around. I know most members don't want to think about these topics, but they're crucial to any full understanding of the church's failure in the developed world. Of course the church is growing faster in countries that still openly persecute gay people, but those countries will change sooner or later too.

The kind of stuff discussed in this article, on this blog, and elsewehere was actually another reason I stopped believing. I can't reconcile it with the church's truth claims and I don't understand how anyone else can. When I grew up not very long ago, it was practically an article of faith that the church is true because it's growing so fast. L. Whitney Clayton made that point explicit in General Conference eleven years ago, at which time I already knew from this blog that he was objectively wrong about "this remarkable church growth [that] deserves explanation," but of course nobody would listen to me because Clayton's a General Authority and I'm not. Thanks to this blog, I can't see a shred of evidence that the missionary program is "inspired" in any sense of the word, unless God has consistently inspired it to fail for some mysterious higher purpose that he never mentioned in the scriptures. The Book of Mormon says that the church's numbers will be few because of the world's wickedness, not because of its missionary program's staggering incompetence.

I hope my words don't come across as too antagonistic, but I haven't said anything more critical than this article does. Reading it, I honestly wondered if Dr. Stewart is still a member, and if so, why.

Michael Worley said...

To give a modest thought experiment: What if some of the more harmful trends to our secular culture-- stuff like a lack of civility on the internet or, addiction to video games and social media, or, worst of all, the rise of 24-7 availability of pornography-- did not exist? (To underscore the seriousness of this latter issue, credible studies show a rise in disturbing practices in the sex life of Gen Z, practices that are inherited from pornography.)

In my hypothetical, we'd still have church history issues, for sure, which would cause some to leave. I assume the LGBT movement and other social issues would still be strong, which would cause others to leave. But marriages would be stronger, in and out of the church. As a member, I think a lack of pornography use and a resurgence of civility would increase spiritual sensitivity in non-members and enhance missionary work. (The decline of many other religions correlates with my thesis; I see no reason pornography use is particularly compatible with the selflessness nearly all organized religion requires.)

Let me EMPHASIZE: Christopher Nicholson's faith journey is his own, and we should respect him. I do NOT accuse him individually of being affected by the trends I noted. As Brother Steven J. Lund taught, "We cannot judge each other for what we do and do not know." And the same goes for anyone else who is on the margins or distant from the faith.

I admit I'm more optimistic then Brother Stewart, but still, some data is quite clear. But when we're discussing macro trends that lead to a church that isn't growing at least in some areas of the world I don't think we should point to the "missionary program's staggering incompetence" without at least someone adding to the discussion the question of whether getting in the door is getting noticeably harder because of a culture that has accepted assumptions that has allowed for less civility, increasing porn/hard porn use, addiction to social media and video games, and other trends in tension with the gospel.

(I'm NOT saying all of society is going to pot; Good grief, I'm grateful for the efforts to confront racism and climate change, and I feel blessed to live in a technology-savvy land. I personally feel guided by God in my life in clear and convincing ways, and I'm excited to watch as God moves in the lives of members and non-members throughout this generation.)

Ohhappydane33 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Michael Worley said...

I am not saying that. What I was trying to say was "worldly conditions make missionary work more difficult", not "our missionaries are subpar."

WestBerkeleyFlats said...

Here's the most relevant quote in the article - "A multivariate regression analysis of international Mormon growth from 1997 to 2017 found that HDI was the largest single (inverse) correlate of growth rates, correlating with 49% of variance in membership growth and over 60% of congregational growth (Stewart 2019)." For decades, the church has had little to offer most people in educated, developed, and increasingly secular countries, as evidenced by the decline in active membership in Europe, East Asia, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and California. Moreover, as noted above, much of what the church emphasizes (e.g. opposition to homosexuality and same-sex marriage, patriarchy, gerontocracy, the Book of Mormon, a particular culture rooted in a conservative and fairly insular area of the US) is generally viewed as somewhat embarrassing in these settings. But apparently, the fundamental problems are Twitter and YouPorn.

Michael Worley said...

West Berkeley, are there other faiths that are expanding in those areas of the world? Are other community organizations or non-profit groups thriving? My understanding, through works like Robert Putnam's Bowling Alone, Ben Sasse's Them, and the research on porn-prompted changes in sexual norms (here, I'm talking about among opposite-sex couples), that a lot is changing in our families and our culture. We should consider BOTH the factors you raise and larger issues.

Michael Worley said...

West, I should add I don't know you and expect we would get along in real life quite well. I'm trying to defend my thesis-- that there are larger societal shifts also at play--but I hope I don't demean you or others who share the concerns you raised.

Johnathan Reese Whiting said...

Some additional information about a conversation we were having in a different thread. Looks like the Church is making some friends with University leaders and others in India! :)


"Statue of Joseph Smith Unveiled in India" (Church Newsroom):

https://youtu.be/BMc3q5vV7Ww

“The greatest aspect of the mission of the Prophet Joseph Smith was to bear testimony of Jesus Christ,” Elder D. Todd Christofferson tells students at World Peace University.

A 15-foot-high bronze statue of the Prophet Joseph Smith was unveiled on Tuesday, November 22, 2022, at the World Peace Dome in Pune, India. The statue of the founder of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints joins the statues of 54 other religious leaders, scientists and philosophers that adorn the 263-foot-high dome at the MIT World Peace University.


https://news-in.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/joseph-smith-india-world-peace-dome

"The placement of the Joseph Smith statue is itself a story rooted in friendship. Ashok Joshi, an award-winning scientist and philanthropist from India who lives in Salt Lake City, USA, is a friend of the Revered Professor Dr. Vishwanath Karad — the founder and president of World Peace University.

At Joshi’s invitation, Dr. Karad visited Salt Lake City in 2015 and delivered the keynote address at the Parliament of World Religions held in Utah’s capital. While in Utah, Dr. Karad became acquainted with The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. He met Elder Christofferson and Brigham Young University President Kevin J Worthen, who was also present at Tuesday’s event.

King Husein, chairman and CEO of Span Construction & Engineering, said the Joseph Smith statue was patterned after the one that resides at the Joseph Smith Birthplace memorial in Vermont.

“I am grateful to God for the Prophet Joseph Smith, for his life of sacrifice and for his role in restoring the gospel of Jesus Christ,” said Husein, who helped facilitate the placement of the Joseph Smith statue in the World Peace Dome."

Whizzbang said...

"I [am] an optimist concerning the work of the Lord. I cannot believe that God has established His work in the earth to have it fail. I cannot believe that it is getting weaker. I know that it is getting stronger. …

I have a simple and solemn faith that right will triumph and that truth will prevail. I am not so naive as to believe there will not be setbacks, but I believe that “truth crushed to earth will rise again” (from Improvement Era, Dec. 1969, 97–98).

President Gordon B. Hinckley.

I think there is some wise counsel in his words

Matt said...

Part II

As for what is the source of problems with member attrition, particularly with young single adults, much of this is what Christopher Nicholson pointed out - the influence of society and culture on members of the Church, and this influence eventually resulting in these members leaving the Church because they adopt values and beliefs that they believe are incompatible with Latter-day Saint doctrine (I have seen this reason quite often in survey data from members in Europe in particular). This is NOT unique to Latter-day Saints - really every religious group experiences it, and I would argue that Latter-day Saints bode much better than most Christians with children remaining active in the Church as adults. I remember another conversation I had with a student ward bishop who told me how he was saddened that perhaps as few as 20-30% of the active members in the student ward appeared to actually have a testimony in Jesus Christ, and because of this testimony this is why they came to church. I was taken back by his comment, as I thought it seemed harsh and incorrect. However, over the years, I think he was correct. Religion is a very social thing, and many, if not most, people are motivated to participate in religion for social purposes rather than ones of personal faith and devotion. Such members would be most vulnerable to leaving the Church when the social reasons for attending evaporate and they are left to rely on their own testimony to propel them forward into continued church activity. Now, I am not saying that this is the experience of all YSAs who go inactive or resign their membership, but I do think that this is likely the biggest reason that drives them away from the Church.


Something else I have also noticed anecdotally is that the Latter-day Saints I have known over the decades who are able to have regular personal spiritual experiences on their own are much more likely to remain active in the Church than the ones who struggle to experience this or feel like they cannot have such experiences anymore. Recognizing the Holy Ghost and having the faith to seek revelation and follow the inspiration you receive are pretty critical to retaining members. We have seen a major emphasis in recent General Conference talks about this, and I believe this is probably because it is needed to try to improve member activity and convert retention.

And finally, yes David Stewart is an active member of the Church and as am I. We can face the reality of these concerns noted in our research and not have this be something that is faith destroying. Facts are facts. It really depends on what we do with the information with what we make of it.

Ohhappydane33 said...

Another aspect that is being overlooked in this discussion is the Church's own narrative, and, how thanks to technology and the Internet and consequent East access to information (and disinformation) the Church can no longer control its narrative in the same ways it enjoyed prior to the worldwide adoption of the Internet. That genie is out of the bottle and is gone for good, like it or not. The repercussions of the Internet are obvious and enormous.

Ohhappydane33 said...

Easy access not East access

Brett Stirling said...

That article was lengthy and meaty in its content. That was a forensic analysis of the many challenges facing the Church on many fronts. At several junctions though it’s history, leaders have responded to societal change to ensure the survival of the Church. How does it now respond to social changes to ensure sustained growth, to maintain a strong core of believers and be a meaningful contributor to society on a global basis?

I am not sure it has the expertise or the structure in place, nor the active feedback loops, or more importantly the desire to review and reflect on itself to remain agile and relevant. There is nothing wrong with claiming an exclusive restorationist authority to lead the world into Jesus Christ. Excluding alternative sources of knowledge, wisdom and expertise is short sighted.

What happens now? Historic issues is one thing, having a strong brand that people want to embrace beyond Utah is another thing.

Eric said...

The comments here remind me of something President Packer said back in the April 1999 general conference:

"Often we are asked how the relatively few Apostles in the First Presidency and the Twelve can manage the Church, now more than 10 million strong.

"Actually the Church is no bigger than a ward. Each bishop has counselors. He wears a special mantle and is designated as the presiding high priest in the ward. There are other high priests, and there is a presidency of elders. There are auxiliary leaders and teachers sufficient for the need. When we serve obediently, ever willingly, our pay, like the bishop’s, comes in blessings.

"No matter if the Church grows to be a hundred million (as it surely will!), it will still be no bigger than a ward. Everything needed for our redemption, save for the temple, is centered there—and temples now come ever closer to all of us....

"Whatever happens in the world, whatever heights of civility or depths of depravity emerge in society, the plan remains unaltered. The Church will grow until it fills the whole earth. At once it will remain no bigger than the ward."

He talks about continued growth, but not its rate; and temples coming closer to the people, which is still happening. My main takeaway for what we should do is work on strengthening our own wards and our own families.

Downtownchrisbrown said...

One of my favourite quotes addresses these issues: “There is much more to be achieved than statistical improvement,” President Hinckley said. “More importantly, we should be concerned with the spiritual dimension of our people and the enlargement of this dimension. There is a tendency in all of us to ask for better statistical performance. There is a tendency to impose quotas behind which usually lies imposition of pressure to achieve improved statistics. In the work of the Lord there is a more appropriate motivation than pressure. There is the motivation that comes of true conversion. When there throbs in the heart of an individual Latter-day Saint a great and vital testimony of the truth of this work, he [meaning, of course, men and women] will be found doing his duty in the Church. He will be found in his sacrament meetings. He will be found in his priesthood meetings. He will be found paying his honest tithes and offerings. He will be doing his home teaching. He will be found in attendance at the temple as frequently as his circumstances will permit. He will have within him a great desire to share the Gospel with others. He will be found strengthening and lifting his brethren and sisters. [In other words, he will be committed.] It is conversion that makes the difference” (Regional Representatives’ seminar, 6 Apr. 1984; emphasis added).

If we focus on conversion (our own and others) the Lords kingdom will continue to grow and will fill the earth.

James G. Stokes said...

Anonymous, as I've mentioned before, I've never served a proselyting mission, but I am familiar enough with missionary leadership organization to know that missionaries often serve as senior companions, ZLs, DLs, APs, counselors in the mission presidency, in branch and district presidencies, and on newly-implemented mission councils.

Since missionaries can seve in those significant roles, I don't see why "more seasoned" adults would be needed for leadership roles, with the exception of YSA bishops and stake presidents.

Can you imagine the maturity that will be brought into marriages where either or both partners have served in key leadership roles in YSA wards and stakes?

The one caveat is that the release of all adult leaders in YSA wards and stakes is "recommended" rather than required. But that is primarily because our prophet doesn't like to mandate or use imperative language. The updated wording in the affected handbook sections does use more definitive language.

And again, these changes have come in response to the counsel and encouragement given to YSAs worldwide in the May devotional from the prophet. If you go back and read or reread what he said then, it should clarify the reasoning behind these adjustments. Hope these observations are helpful.

Anonymous said...

Hi Christopher,

I think some level of wickedness exists everywhere, including missionaries and church programs. This is a fallen world. I have sometimes been concerned when people believe the church is more than it is, because it sets them up for a faith crisis when they realize the church is different than they expected it to be or think it should be. I’m not implying this is the case with you - how could I? I don’t even know you.

I think the church would grow much faster if it wasn’t for wickedness within it. Maybe wickedness is a strong word, but if individual members were more righteous and open to the Holy Spirit, the strength at the individual and local levels would naturally produce more growth.

Anonymous said...

Diversity is helpful in most committees. Paul taught about the many parts of a human body working together. The wisdom and experience that can come from age, of being married, of raising children, being a grandparent, having a long career, etc. can be helpful. Strictly from a diversity perspective, would be helpful to have additional people like this at the stake level.

Diversity of life experience helps combat group-think as well.

What I said is informed by my life experience. When I hear different points of view I try to understand them. I really think YSAs are blessed by having more role models involved. My perspective is not about whether the YSAs are capable enough.

Eduardo said...

Stark's predictions got a lot of us excited. It is great to see how the Church's growth, which has been robust and dynamic at times, would get us emotionally or intellectually stimulated, because superior numbers are always cool to see when they are something you believe in. I was excited throughout the 1980s when I would see the numbers of the domestic Church of Jesus Christ outpacing traditional powers of the mainstream, like the Episcopalian (which some friends were members of), and others that were wavering back then. That in the Annual Yearbook of the Worldbook Encyclodia, from 1980 to the 1990s.
By the late 80s, or early 90s, I was purchasing and pouring over the LDS Church Almanac, reveling in the growth that I saw year after year.

But thankfully I was having experiences, learning and feeling and growing independently from these things (of stats and positive growth) that bolstered my knowledge, confidence, understanding, and faith in the Lord Jesus Christ and His priesthoods, and the Church of Him as restored by the Prophet Joseph Smith. The scriptures revealed as such.

I have seen a lot of apostasy at every level and in every place that I have lived, which is now six states, and five countries. The Church takes a lot of bruises and blows, like the 12 apostles of the early church turning away (maybe seven of them at one point?), or the trials of polygamy or those of color without the priesthood, or the current battles of traditional marriage and gender identity.

I am confident that a few billion people living on the earth today will be compliant with God and His will, that they (we) will live up to all the prophecies of God.

The temples on earth now will be busy into the future, into the Millenium. All the things of God will be fulfilled, whether the numbers are great or few.

In each land, Tonga, Chile, Brazil, Mexico, Nepal, Kazakhstan, here up north and in all places, the great covenants and promises of old and now are happening and will happen.

Small branches or large wards and stakes, the Lord's wishes, desires, commands, intentions, and plans will go through.

Sign up now and hold on, brothers and sisters! The time is now.

Africa will be transformed, as will the rest of the world.

But as we know in the dream of Lehi and Nephi, there will be plenty within the Great and Spacious Building. Don't go there.


James G. Stokes said...

Anonymous, that's an excellent point. I haven't yet come across anyone who is 100% perfect 100% of the time. I myself have had several instances in my life over the last couple of decades when I have been painfully aware of my own faults, flaws, mistakes, and transgressions.

I also know that the Church's position on certain issues has unfortunately driven some people away from the Church. That includes my own brother. We are reminded in "Let Us All Press On" that "our numbers may be few", especially in the last days. I look forward to the day when everything that may not make sense now in our finite minds and with our limited understanding will make sense. Thanks for what you said. I fully agree.

Anonymous said...

Moses and Aaron did things against the laws of God and was forgiven. So did David, and he was forgiven except in the case of Uriah. So did Lehi and Sariah, Alma the younger, Paul, and everyone else except Jesus.

They didn’t just make mistakes or sin before they were being asked to do great things by God. We are ALL sinners and fall short. ALL of us including all of our church leaders. Even people who have had their calling and election made sure still sin. I can’t emphasis enough how important it is to not put people on pedestals. Think about it - really think about it. This is Jesus’s Church. He’s not like Satan who wanted to micromanage us and force compliance.

I’ve been around church leaders and others who are strong in the Holy Ghost and priesthood power who make mistakes and sin.

I sometimes wish the church is better than it is or yearn for the time when Jesus reigns. Even when Jesus reigns during the 1000 years I expect there to be some level of unrighteousness and mistakes by people he calls to hep him lead.

There is no better place to go. If we want the church to be better lets prove it by making it better.

When I see mistakes in the church I remind myself that if I was better prepared, willing to serve, and the best choice, I would have been chosen. If I’m not willing to be righteous enough and gain the requisite experience, I do not have standing to expect someone else do so for my benefit. I don’t have claim to expect someone else be better than me to serve me.

As an example, I hope, would like, could benefit from, may even desperately need a great ministering brother, but who am I if I don’t do my best at being a good ministering brother myself?

No one has the right to join any organization, team, club, etc. and just be entitled to the best simply because they think they have identified how it could be better.

Our church isn’t even the Church of the Firstborn. Nor are we living in the Celestial Kingdom. Of course it has issues!! The issues are because of humans, not because Jesus isn’t the head (He is the head).

Some thought Jesus wasn’t the Christ because he allowed himself to die!

Some thought He couldn’t possibly be the Savior because He was “from” the below average town of Nazareth.

Or because he didn’t obey dumb rules like (gasp) not healing on the Sabbath.

Some didn’t like their feelings being hurt (gasp) “who is he to tell me a learned rabbi that I am wrong!?”

The list goes on.

Believing in Jesus and his church’s divine mission spiritually-produced hope and joy. Abandoning it leads to a lack of that and often leads to deep disappointment or discouragement with the state of our world’s future.

Harvstr said...

Actully I an unaware of any actions of church leaders to address the mass exodus epically amoung the youth. Our CES letter issues are are now a major plaque for the next generation

Dad Little said...

At first, after reading the journal article written by David Stewart and following the continuous "new stakes created" portion of this website, I became somewhat discouraged. However, on a local level I see so much spiritual growth. I am a patriarch and have given many blessings to young and old who have fallen away from the Church and then returned. In my stake in Arizona, I would say about 30% of blessings fall into this category. The rest are young people from high school to university age who have independently made the decision to receive their patriarchal blessing. I was ordained September, 2020. Until August, 2022 an average of 2 blessings per month were given. Now, my schedule is full every Sunday until February, 2023. There continues to be positive growth in the spirituality of our members.
I think due to the wider use of social media, we just hear more of the negative stories of those who fall away and it magnifies our feeling that something is wrong. The earliest members of the Church and those that lived through the persecution of the federal government in the late 1800's might have felt despair as to whether this church would ever fulfill its destiny.
The articles in national magazines about how fast we were growing as a church and then the pandemic that stifled much of our activity has had their effect on us. Too much optimism on growth and now fear that we may never grow. There are still many souls who receive the witness of the Spirit and know of a surety that the gospel of Jesus Christ has been restored. God is still God and He still has the power to protect and nurture His saints. Since there are the prophecies that the Church will reach every clime and nation, then we should keep on working to build the Kingdom of God and let Him do what we cannot do on our own. We have a living prophet to guide us through these last days.
The Book of Mormon will stand as a permanent witness of the truth regardless of outside circumstances.

James said...

It's been interesting reading these responses. I don't think saying that "the numbers of the church will be few" (citing the Book of Mormon) is really a prophecy for what is happening here. As the article fleshes out, it is the utter incompetence of decision-makers for the church, and a persistent culture of dogmatic positivism rather than harsh reality checks, that has led to many of its problems. And honestly, this comment section kind of reflects a lot of the cultural problems the author cites. This "all is well" attitude that refuses to acknowledge severe institutional issues.

This isn't some issue of people being imperfect sinners. It's an issue of the church making the mistakes that very few corporations would be allowed to repeatedly make because shareholders would have an accountability mechanism to correct problems. This isn't an issue of external wickedness of the world or secular blindness being too strong. It's an issue of the church repeatedly lagging in its response to younger generations who are rising up with a moral conscience and reasonable demands that the church refuses to meet.

And no, this isn't just the LDS church, although some of the elements David describes in the article are more uniquely prominent in the LDS church. Listen to what people say who leave mainstream Christianity. Consider what people like Rhett McLaughlin have to say about leaving mainstream Evangelical Christianity. Almost word for word, their experience mirrors those of people who left the LDS faith - who felt that their integrity and morality caused them to leave the institution or limit their relationship with it. They leave because they think the CHURCH is unethical, numb, and immoral, not because THEY have decided to be.

Ohhappydane33 said...

Wow James, those are fighting words that I don't think will go over too well here, though I agree with pretty much everything you are saying. Prepare for some significant pushback from the usual suspects!

Ben H said...

When I read the article, I thought back 33+ years ago to my mission and discussions I had with my fellow missionaries since. Last week, I volunteered at Deseret Manufacturing. One of the complaints from the regulars was that most of the male service missionaries don't work. Some supervisors spend too mcy their time tracking them down to make sure that they are safe.

While we want every young man to serve a mission, we also need to balance that with the understanding that it is a privilege to serve, not a right. It goes far beyond moral worthiness. We also need to ensure that it is culturally acceptable for a young man to wait 2 or 3 years before he goes. We need to not judge the families if the young man needs some time at home to grow up before he leaves.

There are three temples planed or being built in my former mission boundaries. That is the vision that young men need when they serve. Eventually, we want to turn wards into stakes and see temples built in these communities. It is thrilling to hear about a temple being built in a community where you have served.

I don't know what it will take for those young men I saw last week to catch the vision of the work that they are doing. If they see themselves as helping to grow the church in the area where they are serving, it will be better.

Anonymous said...

@James, thank you for your perspective.

Daniel Moretti said...

I can imagine who they are... Having said that, I return to the shadows as a ghost reader.

Kimberley in San Diego said...

Wow, this sure is a fascinating blog. I'm 60 years old and have never participated on anything like this before, but now I find myself checking this site everyday because I can't wait to see what is posted next. One challenge I'm facing is how to draw the line between productive discussion and criticism of church leaders. I think the insights given here can be useful in moving the work of the kingdom forward as we examine the trends regarding church growth, and try think of ways we can be sensitive to member needs and change our approaches. But at what point do our suggestions for improvement become evil speaking of the Lord's anointed?

The Stewart article was distressing to me because after I read it I felt as though church leadership was not being very forthright in discussing growth patterns with the membership. But I know they have inspired reasons for what they are choosing to disclose. I wonder if anyone has shared the article with President Nelson. I'd love to hear his reaction to it is. In fact I find myself thinking wouldn't it be nice if I could sit down with the prophet and share my insights about how I think church growth could be improved. Oh well, at least I can post my opinions here.

Ohhappydane33 said...

Well, this is frankly another problem of how off-putting the Church is to so many people. The leaders are presumably perfect and beyond reproach, so to question anything is not only unnecessary but blasphemous. This, coupled with the fact that overall accountability generally runs in only one direction, from the bottom up, and it's no wonder why the Church is a big turn-off to so many people. Sorry if this is harsh, but it's true.