How do you know which wards and branches have closed? Another site, fullerconsideration.com, recently lost its ability to obtain this information from the meetinghouse locator. Do you have a different source?
Slowest growth may be qualified as an overall rate of growth or attrition, like national GDP, but I think because of sheer size it is hard to compare 1857 or most years before WWII to what is happening today, or the last 80 years.
While convert baptisms and stake creations may not be as robust as previous years like 2012 or 2000, 1994, or whatever, there was some obvious dynamic growth happening last year, 2021. Likely better than 1857 in bulk, as compared to percentage. Missionaries were doing tremendous work
I baptized someone last year in the fall, who just received his mission call to begin in 2023. He will likely find others that will be baptized, and from this anecdotal and personal standpoint the Church of Our Savior is doing all right. Each year is unique to itself, but I say that the last year of 2022 has been pretty good, without seeing all the greater numbers.
Our branch attendance was 21 last year. This year it is 40+ every week with two young men going on missions, many reactivations, several baptisms, etc. Considering we are in a small town of a few thousand in rural England it is pretty good.
Based on the data we are getting early (this is drawn from everywhere I've lived over the years and reports of other places on here) we are actually having a great year in terms of convert baptisms. Our ward has only had 2, which isn't that much, but it's real growth; both are still very much active, have received the Priesthood, and are actively sharing the Gospel with everyone they meet. We also have five missionaries in the field, three more with calls, and one more working on papers. Other units in our stake have had between 1 and 10 baptisms generally and retention seems pretty good.
My home ward in Germany has had at least a dozen convert baptisms this year (I was only there for two of them while I visited this summer) and it is the most this ward has likely ever seen. The branch to the west of us had its first six convert baptisms ever, all this year.
There seem to be quite a few places throughout the world that are breaking records, including Pakistan, the DRC (this is likely going to be a major contributor to membership growth if the four missions there continue to average 1000+ baptisms per month each, since that would equal 48,000+ this year), and other parts of Africa that are seeing post-Covid rebound growth. I believe 300,000 convert baptisms are likely with each of these trends combined.
Not to doubt these anecdotes, but if the numbers here are as great as everyone says they are, we should be seeing it reflected in the numbers of branches, wards and stakes across the board, with FAR more being created than what we are seeing. So where is the disconnect?
I just think we need to be careful to not extrapolate the trends we see at very local levels and assume the same things are happening across the world. Growth is seldom if ever uniform and can change on a dime.
Since we are sharing anecdotal examples of what people are seeing on their own congregation level - I will share some information from my ward. We have had five convert baptisms in my ward since the beginning of the year - the most seen in years if not decades. We did not lose any members to inactivity during COVID, although we have a couple older members who still do not attend in person (but they attend via Zoom still) due to health reasons. We did have some go inactive before COVID, but that was before the pandemic. Instead, we have had several reactivations, including a family who had been inactive for years with several children who are baptism age but who have not been baptized yet. So we have really had a very good year in comparison to previous years.
As for the Colorado Colorado Springs Mission, we had the sister missionaries over today. They shared that the mission set a new record for 39 convert baptisms in October. I am not sure if this is an all-time record, but it sounds like it is at least a record for the past few years. The mission used to have about 30 baptisms a month, but it significantly slowed right before COVID and during the pandemic as well. Seems like the mission is averaging around 30-40 baptisms a month, so that comes out to probably 300-400 baptism for the whole year - not bad for an area with a highly evangelical population that presents conditions that are at times quite hostile to Latter-day Saint missionary efforts.
I also received statistics on the North American Central Area. The area has had 3,505 convert baptisms in 2022. I do not know what the number of missions are in the area, but is probably something like 15, so that comes out to about 200-250 convert baptisms per mission. The greatest portion of converts baptized were found through active members who provided a referral (26%) followed by Facebook Ads run by the local mission (18%). The third greatest source of converts baptized was from referrals provided by people being taught by the missionaries (11%). The highest percentage of people referred who were baptized were from people found/referred by the ward council (one in 7 get baptized) whereas the least effective was contacting in public (one in 172). However, referrals from new members, less-active members, and active members were all nearly identical in terms of the likelihood that the referred individual will get baptized (one in 12 or one in 13). One-third of converts baptized in the year in 2022 were found through online proselytism work on Facebook.
I have noted in my ward in Mexico an uptick in convert baptisms. It almost seems like every other week someone else is getting confirmed a member of the Church. Several new faces in Church; it is clear that the missionaries are working quite hard.
In my general region we've had a new stake created in Nealtican (three stakes total) and a few new wards made in Puebla city. Currently no chatter about the formation of new stakes in the city though the Citlaltepetl district to the east is getting close to having enough ward-sized units to justify a stake there.
I'm not going to go on a delusion of grandeur and say that we are back at 300k convert baptisms. I can only report on what is going on locally. I'm going to be a little more modest and say there's about 200k convert baptisms. Still low compared to pre pandemic but an improvement over the last couple of years. That's my prediction.
Past years of 300 thousand converts for the Church of Jesus Christ, perhaps a few years in the 1990s, were inflated or over-blown by many who joined the faith but were not sustained. Many people officially joined the roles of the church but were not effectively integrated as viable members.
I know what occurred in Chile pretty well, especially from 1985 to 2005. The 1980s and 1990s had huge convert baptism numbers there, going from 6 missions in 1986 (I think Vina del Mar was the 6th), to eventually reach the current number of 10 missions by the 2000s. Baptism numbers slowed down by the early 2000s.
Elder Holland of the 12 went to Chile to help consolidate wards, branches, and stakes, which he did. The now 600k on the roles are really a smaller proportion of active or semi-active members, maybe 100 thousand as a more realistic estimate of effective membership.
I think the numbers of converts counted now more dynamically in Latin America and Africa in particular hopefully indicate more tangible growth, more baptized members who are committed to the faith, which will push forward into more stakes, temples, and missionaries produced. I think current growth, although appearing more modest than former members' numbers of over a quarter million yearly baptisms, will be much more effective as a measure of real growth.
Perhaps Mexico and Brazil had some similar trends in the past. Other countries like Argentina and Peru, too. But I think that Chile may have been the most extreme as far as false hopes of dynamic or robust growth.
I might need to qualify my hopes for 300k plus baptisms a bit more.
Generally, pre-Covid, we have not cracked that number in several years, but we were never that far away at usually near a quarter million, sometimes slightly more. So if we go back to 2019 conditions but with higher levels of outreach in the most prospering areas of the world (i.e., Africa), it's very much within reach. In fact, here is why I believe that Africa might get us there on its own even without help from elsewhere through increased numbers if baptisms.
Let's say we get 50,000 baptisms out of the DRC alone. That seems possible based on some info that Matt shared earlier, and he can correct me here if anything has changed. My best estimate is that this would about triple 2019 numbers and raise the global number by about 30,000. That's one country.
We also know that in some parts of Africa, baptism numbers will be artificially inflated due to the end of the pandemic. We know this is true of Mozambique but there may be others. We have reports of increased numbers of convert baptisms or significant outreach expansion in the Republic of Congo, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Togo, Benin, Tanzania, Malawi, and Senegal. Those are not going to be massive increases from each individual country but it will likely raise the baseline by another few thousand combined. Nigeria, Ghana, and Cote d'Ivoire seem to be growing at a more steady rate these days but reports are few and far between so this may be off in either direction.
If we put all this together, we might end up with +50k from Africa. Additionally, we would end up needing about one additional convert baptism in each congregation outside of Africa compared to 2019, and it seems like we are on a good path there based on the data that is getting returned early and anecdotally (but not only).
We are in the midwest (central Illinois). Our stake center has three wards. Two of them are doing quite well, and have seen a few baptisms this year that seem to be promising (i.e., retained converts).
My ward has the smaller attendance of the three and has unfortunately shrunk from roughly 120 in attendance each Sunday, to ~75 pre-COVID, to ~50 now. Some have left the church, some left town after graduating, and some have moved to the other two wards. People who move to the area kind of avoid our ward if they can help it because it isn't as well attended or supported. But regardless, it seems inevitable that our ward will be combined eventually with the other two wards. A few weeks ago there were only 3 kids total in our Primary. That's just not sustainable.
I'm not as familiar with the other wards in our stake, but our prior Stake President got a blessing in late 2019 stating the stake would see more growth from 2019 to 2021 than in the prior 7 years of 2012-2019. That was before COVID hit, and we didn't see the bump promised or anything close to it.
What's funny is I think I'm likely in Pascal's stake, so it's funny reading his optimistic view of membership growth coming from the same general area. One possible point of optimism in our area is Elder Bednar's son being stake president. He is a generally good man and has natural leadership qualities about him. I think he can lead a more nuanced base of believers (coming from a college town) than many who are more orthodox in their views.
My branch has had I believe 13 converts baptized this year. It helps that this includes a mother and 3 of her children.
There is some hope we will be a ward soon. We have a large chunk of our branch as people who come to Michigan for school or training, often medical related.
I do have hope, but I am thinking we need to move forward with some key things. One really good sign is a brother who has been a member for over 20 years but not yet made it to the temple told me yesterday that he has his appointment with the branch president for a temple recommend interview scheduled.
We are not just getting numbers, but spiritual growth at all levels.
Considering I think 2002 actually did see a decline of stakes, and considering how low convert and children of record baptisms were in 2020, I do not think there is any way that 2022 will even be the lowest growth year by any measure for the 21st century.
One think to keep in mind is that children who are not baptized before their 9th birthday count as convert baptisms regardless of all other considerations.
This may mean that due to delay factors 2021 and 2022 convert baptism numbers may be capturing some people whose families were largely active.
I have a nephew who got baptized in September even though he was 10. To be fair he turned 8 in November 2019, so while Covid may have played a role in the delay of his baptism his family is not exactly fully participatory.
So we got temple announcements today. Richmond Temple will be bedicated in the spring by Elder Holland. President Ballard will remediate the Columbus Ohio Temple I believe in June.
I am hoping to take my grandkids to th Columbus Temple open house. Especially Kyla who we did not take to the DC Temple open house.
We are in the same stake actually, and I attended your ward (I am pretty sure) a couple months back when my wife had a meeting with President Bednar on a Sunday afternoon. Frankly it did not look bad, but certainly a bit on the small side for a ward in a larger-ish city. You probably have a better overview of what is going on on a weekly basis but just for the one time I've been it didn't feel like I would hate going there more often.
Based on the limited info I have, the bright spots in our stake in terms of growth appear to be Mahomet (this one seems to be largely move-ins), Paris (they've had a pretty steady stream of baptisms and have very much solidified as a ward now), and Urbana YSA (quite a few baptisms but obviously very volatile with being so focused on UofI students). I would stop short of calling my own ward in Mattoon a bright spot although lessons and progressing investigators are way up based on what the missionaries have been telling me - especially coming from Eastern Illinois University students. I am definitely hoping for a nice bump in the near future. That said, I'm not fooling myself when I say we've had a lot of people (young adults and strong families both) move to Utah recently. Before COVID, there was at least some talk about splitting the ward between Mattoon and Charleston, but after so many leaders have moved away it seems silly and so far away to even think about it now.
My new ward up here in Montana, according to long term members, has about doubled in size over the last few years (mostly from new move-ins, from what I can tell). Also, several baptisms of children of record (we have a lot of youth).
Our building is at a Phase 2 stage right now, and our attendance numbers are pushing the need for a probable ward split sometime in the near future if the growth and activity keeps up.
I haven't seen any covert baptisms since I've moved here, but the missionaries are regularly bringing investigators to church, and I've been helping to fellowship and teach those, as well as help them teach one of my new friends, who we're hopeful might get baptized in the future.
My family and I have also helped fellowship and make friends with a member who we're encouraging back into reactivation - who has been making progress, attending Sacrament meetings from time to time and coming to ward activities when we remind him and invite him.
@James:
I know I wasn't there, but I wonder if the blessing your Stake President (Bednar) received about growth during the pandemic years might not just be about numbers, but could also be interpreted as the personal growth of those members who stayed strong and endured, even during the crisis?
Hi Johnathan, that's cool you have a friend in our area.
No, the blessing was given to the prior stake president, and was very clearly about membership growth. I was there. I'm not hanging my entire testimony on it, but definitely a failed prophecy.
Your own local area information is interested because your ward could double in size and still not need a ward split unless growth keeps trending up. It makes me wonder what the typical floor and ceiling are in terms of members for wards. Our ward has about 50 actively attending, which feels a whole lot like the floor (or heck, the subfloor). That means for a lot of wards out there, you could see attrition of up to 100 or more and still not divide the unit.
Growth is a lot more than just numbers. I was talking to my branch president the other day, who has a vision of us becoming a ward during his term. He was saying that we have 3 members almost to the point of going to the temple, 2 of whom have been members about 25 years (it is a husband and wife in that case). This progress in the level of commitment of those who do come out is what excites him far more than mere numbers. Not that our numbers are lacking. In the last 7 days we have had 4 convert baptisms for example.
21 comments:
How do you know which wards and branches have closed? Another site, fullerconsideration.com, recently lost its ability to obtain this information from the meetinghouse locator. Do you have a different source?
I am hoping a Lome Togo Temple will be announced soon. I know the Church has not existed a long time there, but I hope they can get a temple.
It appears the church this year will have the slowest growth since 1857 or am I wrong?
Slowest growth may be qualified as an overall rate of growth or attrition, like national GDP, but I think because of sheer size it is hard to compare 1857 or most years before WWII to what is happening today, or the last 80 years.
While convert baptisms and stake creations may not be as robust as previous years like 2012 or 2000, 1994, or whatever, there was some obvious dynamic growth happening last year, 2021. Likely better than 1857 in bulk, as compared to percentage. Missionaries were doing tremendous work
I baptized someone last year in the fall, who just received his mission call to begin in 2023. He will likely find others that will be baptized, and from this anecdotal and personal standpoint the Church of Our Savior is doing all right. Each year is unique to itself, but I say that the last year of 2022 has been pretty good, without seeing all the greater numbers.
Agreed, Eduardo.
Our branch attendance was 21 last year. This year it is 40+ every week with two young men going on missions, many reactivations, several baptisms, etc. Considering we are in a small town of a few thousand in rural England it is pretty good.
Peaks and troughs, winter and summer, etc. etc.
Based on the data we are getting early (this is drawn from everywhere I've lived over the years and reports of other places on here) we are actually having a great year in terms of convert baptisms. Our ward has only had 2, which isn't that much, but it's real growth; both are still very much active, have received the Priesthood, and are actively sharing the Gospel with everyone they meet. We also have five missionaries in the field, three more with calls, and one more working on papers. Other units in our stake have had between 1 and 10 baptisms generally and retention seems pretty good.
My home ward in Germany has had at least a dozen convert baptisms this year (I was only there for two of them while I visited this summer) and it is the most this ward has likely ever seen. The branch to the west of us had its first six convert baptisms ever, all this year.
There seem to be quite a few places throughout the world that are breaking records, including Pakistan, the DRC (this is likely going to be a major contributor to membership growth if the four missions there continue to average 1000+ baptisms per month each, since that would equal 48,000+ this year), and other parts of Africa that are seeing post-Covid rebound growth. I believe 300,000 convert baptisms are likely with each of these trends combined.
Not to doubt these anecdotes, but if the numbers here are as great as everyone says they are, we should be seeing it reflected in the numbers of branches, wards and stakes across the board, with FAR more being created than what we are seeing. So where is the disconnect?
I just think we need to be careful to not extrapolate the trends we see at very local levels and assume the same things are happening across the world. Growth is seldom if ever uniform and can change on a dime.
Since we are sharing anecdotal examples of what people are seeing on their own congregation level - I will share some information from my ward. We have had five convert baptisms in my ward since the beginning of the year - the most seen in years if not decades. We did not lose any members to inactivity during COVID, although we have a couple older members who still do not attend in person (but they attend via Zoom still) due to health reasons. We did have some go inactive before COVID, but that was before the pandemic. Instead, we have had several reactivations, including a family who had been inactive for years with several children who are baptism age but who have not been baptized yet. So we have really had a very good year in comparison to previous years.
As for the Colorado Colorado Springs Mission, we had the sister missionaries over today. They shared that the mission set a new record for 39 convert baptisms in October. I am not sure if this is an all-time record, but it sounds like it is at least a record for the past few years. The mission used to have about 30 baptisms a month, but it significantly slowed right before COVID and during the pandemic as well. Seems like the mission is averaging around 30-40 baptisms a month, so that comes out to probably 300-400 baptism for the whole year - not bad for an area with a highly evangelical population that presents conditions that are at times quite hostile to Latter-day Saint missionary efforts.
I also received statistics on the North American Central Area. The area has had 3,505 convert baptisms in 2022. I do not know what the number of missions are in the area, but is probably something like 15, so that comes out to about 200-250 convert baptisms per mission. The greatest portion of converts baptized were found through active members who provided a referral (26%) followed by Facebook Ads run by the local mission (18%). The third greatest source of converts baptized was from referrals provided by people being taught by the missionaries (11%). The highest percentage of people referred who were baptized were from people found/referred by the ward council (one in 7 get baptized) whereas the least effective was contacting in public (one in 172). However, referrals from new members, less-active members, and active members were all nearly identical in terms of the likelihood that the referred individual will get baptized (one in 12 or one in 13). One-third of converts baptized in the year in 2022 were found through online proselytism work on Facebook.
I have noted in my ward in Mexico an uptick in convert baptisms. It almost seems like every other week someone else is getting confirmed a member of the Church. Several new faces in Church; it is clear that the missionaries are working quite hard.
In my general region we've had a new stake created in Nealtican (three stakes total) and a few new wards made in Puebla city. Currently no chatter about the formation of new stakes in the city though the Citlaltepetl district to the east is getting close to having enough ward-sized units to justify a stake there.
I'm not going to go on a delusion of grandeur and say that we are back at 300k convert baptisms. I can only report on what is going on locally. I'm going to be a little more modest and say there's about 200k convert baptisms. Still low compared to pre pandemic but an improvement over the last couple of years. That's my prediction.
Past years of 300 thousand converts for the Church of Jesus Christ, perhaps a few years in the 1990s, were inflated or over-blown by many who joined the faith but were not sustained. Many people officially joined the roles of the church but were not effectively integrated as viable members.
I know what occurred in Chile pretty well, especially from 1985 to 2005. The 1980s and 1990s had huge convert baptism numbers there, going from 6 missions in 1986 (I think Vina del Mar was the 6th), to eventually reach the current number of 10 missions by the 2000s. Baptism numbers slowed down by the early 2000s.
Elder Holland of the 12 went to Chile to help consolidate wards, branches, and stakes, which he did. The now 600k on the roles are really a smaller proportion of active or semi-active members, maybe 100 thousand as a more realistic estimate of effective membership.
I think the numbers of converts counted now more dynamically in Latin America and Africa in particular hopefully indicate more tangible growth, more baptized members who are committed to the faith, which will push forward into more stakes, temples, and missionaries produced. I think current growth, although appearing more modest than former members' numbers of over a quarter million yearly baptisms, will be much more effective as a measure of real growth.
Perhaps Mexico and Brazil had some similar trends in the past. Other countries like Argentina and Peru, too. But I think that Chile may have been the most extreme as far as false hopes of dynamic or robust growth.
I might need to qualify my hopes for 300k plus baptisms a bit more.
Generally, pre-Covid, we have not cracked that number in several years, but we were never that far away at usually near a quarter million, sometimes slightly more. So if we go back to 2019 conditions but with higher levels of outreach in the most prospering areas of the world (i.e., Africa), it's very much within reach. In fact, here is why I believe that Africa might get us there on its own even without help from elsewhere through increased numbers if baptisms.
Let's say we get 50,000 baptisms out of the DRC alone. That seems possible based on some info that Matt shared earlier, and he can correct me here if anything has changed. My best estimate is that this would about triple 2019 numbers and raise the global number by about 30,000. That's one country.
We also know that in some parts of Africa, baptism numbers will be artificially inflated due to the end of the pandemic. We know this is true of Mozambique but there may be others. We have reports of increased numbers of convert baptisms or significant outreach expansion in the Republic of Congo, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Togo, Benin, Tanzania, Malawi, and Senegal. Those are not going to be massive increases from each individual country but it will likely raise the baseline by another few thousand combined. Nigeria, Ghana, and Cote d'Ivoire seem to be growing at a more steady rate these days but reports are few and far between so this may be off in either direction.
If we put all this together, we might end up with +50k from Africa. Additionally, we would end up needing about one additional convert baptism in each congregation outside of Africa compared to 2019, and it seems like we are on a good path there based on the data that is getting returned early and anecdotally (but not only).
My anecdotes:
We are in the midwest (central Illinois). Our stake center has three wards. Two of them are doing quite well, and have seen a few baptisms this year that seem to be promising (i.e., retained converts).
My ward has the smaller attendance of the three and has unfortunately shrunk from roughly 120 in attendance each Sunday, to ~75 pre-COVID, to ~50 now. Some have left the church, some left town after graduating, and some have moved to the other two wards. People who move to the area kind of avoid our ward if they can help it because it isn't as well attended or supported. But regardless, it seems inevitable that our ward will be combined eventually with the other two wards. A few weeks ago there were only 3 kids total in our Primary. That's just not sustainable.
I'm not as familiar with the other wards in our stake, but our prior Stake President got a blessing in late 2019 stating the stake would see more growth from 2019 to 2021 than in the prior 7 years of 2012-2019. That was before COVID hit, and we didn't see the bump promised or anything close to it.
What's funny is I think I'm likely in Pascal's stake, so it's funny reading his optimistic view of membership growth coming from the same general area. One possible point of optimism in our area is Elder Bednar's son being stake president. He is a generally good man and has natural leadership qualities about him. I think he can lead a more nuanced base of believers (coming from a college town) than many who are more orthodox in their views.
My branch has had I believe 13 converts baptized this year. It helps that this includes a mother and 3 of her children.
There is some hope we will be a ward soon. We have a large chunk of our branch as people who come to Michigan for school or training, often medical related.
I do have hope, but I am thinking we need to move forward with some key things. One really good sign is a brother who has been a member for over 20 years but not yet made it to the temple told me yesterday that he has his appointment with the branch president for a temple recommend interview scheduled.
We are not just getting numbers, but spiritual growth at all levels.
Considering I think 2002 actually did see a decline of stakes, and considering how low convert and children of record baptisms were in 2020, I do not think there is any way that 2022 will even be the lowest growth year by any measure for the 21st century.
One think to keep in mind is that children who are not baptized before their 9th birthday count as convert baptisms regardless of all other considerations.
This may mean that due to delay factors 2021 and 2022 convert baptism numbers may be capturing some people whose families were largely active.
I have a nephew who got baptized in September even though he was 10. To be fair he turned 8 in November 2019, so while Covid may have played a role in the delay of his baptism his family is not exactly fully participatory.
So we got temple announcements today. Richmond Temple will be bedicated in the spring by Elder Holland. President Ballard will remediate the Columbus Ohio Temple I believe in June.
I am hoping to take my grandkids to th Columbus Temple open house. Especially Kyla who we did not take to the DC Temple open house.
We are in the same stake actually, and I attended your ward (I am pretty sure) a couple months back when my wife had a meeting with President Bednar on a Sunday afternoon. Frankly it did not look bad, but certainly a bit on the small side for a ward in a larger-ish city. You probably have a better overview of what is going on on a weekly basis but just for the one time I've been it didn't feel like I would hate going there more often.
Based on the limited info I have, the bright spots in our stake in terms of growth appear to be Mahomet (this one seems to be largely move-ins), Paris (they've had a pretty steady stream of baptisms and have very much solidified as a ward now), and Urbana YSA (quite a few baptisms but obviously very volatile with being so focused on UofI students). I would stop short of calling my own ward in Mattoon a bright spot although lessons and progressing investigators are way up based on what the missionaries have been telling me - especially coming from Eastern Illinois University students. I am definitely hoping for a nice bump in the near future. That said, I'm not fooling myself when I say we've had a lot of people (young adults and strong families both) move to Utah recently. Before COVID, there was at least some talk about splitting the ward between Mattoon and Charleston, but after so many leaders have moved away it seems silly and so far away to even think about it now.
@James & Pascal Friedmann
One of my best friends is in your stake there in Central Illinois.
My new ward up here in Montana, according to long term members, has about doubled in size over the last few years (mostly from new move-ins, from what I can tell). Also, several baptisms of children of record (we have a lot of youth).
Our building is at a Phase 2 stage right now, and our attendance numbers are pushing the need for a probable ward split sometime in the near future if the growth and activity keeps up.
I haven't seen any covert baptisms since I've moved here, but the missionaries are regularly bringing investigators to church, and I've been helping to fellowship and teach those, as well as help them teach one of my new friends, who we're hopeful might get baptized in the future.
My family and I have also helped fellowship and make friends with a member who we're encouraging back into reactivation - who has been making progress, attending Sacrament meetings from time to time and coming to ward activities when we remind him and invite him.
@James:
I know I wasn't there, but I wonder if the blessing your Stake President (Bednar) received about growth during the pandemic years might not just be about numbers, but could also be interpreted as the personal growth of those members who stayed strong and endured, even during the crisis?
Hi Johnathan, that's cool you have a friend in our area.
No, the blessing was given to the prior stake president, and was very clearly about membership growth. I was there. I'm not hanging my entire testimony on it, but definitely a failed prophecy.
Your own local area information is interested because your ward could double in size and still not need a ward split unless growth keeps trending up. It makes me wonder what the typical floor and ceiling are in terms of members for wards. Our ward has about 50 actively attending, which feels a whole lot like the floor (or heck, the subfloor). That means for a lot of wards out there, you could see attrition of up to 100 or more and still not divide the unit.
Growth is a lot more than just numbers. I was talking to my branch president the other day, who has a vision of us becoming a ward during his term. He was saying that we have 3 members almost to the point of going to the temple, 2 of whom have been members about 25 years (it is a husband and wife in that case). This progress in the level of commitment of those who do come out is what excites him far more than mere numbers. Not that our numbers are lacking. In the last 7 days we have had 4 convert baptisms for example.
That's really cool about the growth in your ward, JPL!
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