That was a fantastic newsletter, Matt! Thanks for sharing your love of Church growth developments with all of us. I am always amazed to read these end-of-the-month detailed reports on the strides the Church has made worldwide every month. The Lord is truly hastening His work in its time. Thanks again.
For me, this newsletter is kind of sad. My ward growing up was the Georgetown, Ohio Ward. It's about 45 miles east of Cincinnati. The newsletter showed the area closed. The Ward was actually renamed Winchester Ward and the Adams branch was consolidated into the Ward. My mother was telling me the Winchester Ward will no longer be meeting in the Georgetown building and instead will be meeting in the Adams branch building. Not sure what the church will do with the unattended building now. My grandfather helped build the meetinghouse long before I was born. He and his family moved to the area sometime during the construction process. My grandfather was the bishop for some time. My father was also bishop for some time while I was a youth. The Ward had been struggling for about 5 to 10 years. Many people had moved away (including my family)or stopped attending. I hope there can be some future growth in the area.
The Saratoga Springs Utah stake just reached 14 wards. Probably will split soon. Another new ward in St George. Also a new ward in Lagos, Nigeria. Hopefully that city will get,a twmple soon. With 43 stakes hopefully Nigeria can have more stakes.
Sorry about the Winchester ward in Ohio.Two former branches in my home Bloomington Stake were removed by lethargy: Brazil and Spencer. I suppose there was a branch in Clinton, too, after my youth. The midwest definitely has large swaths where LDS are considered less favorably. But alk will be made whole, like Nauvoo and the Kirtland temple. A temple for Wisconsin is still a ways away, huh?
Thanks to you all for the insights you shared here. Eduardo, I absolutely share your sentiment: it is hard to see any case where Church units are discontinued. I know that there are good reasons for that to happen (for example, if local leadership feels that the weaker units could be more effective if absorbed by those that are, by comparison, doing slightly better but could benefit from such an arrangement), but that doesn't make it any easier.
Your comment about a potential temple for Wisconsin reminded me that in my own list of possible future temples, I had mentioned the possibility of one in Madison, that state's capital. But I heard from several people that if and when Wisconsin does get a temple (which may not be anytime too soon, but will be soon enough), Green Bay may be the best candidate city for that milestone. The additional study I have done bears out that opinion. And since Elder Wilson stated that 85+ potential temple sites are under active consideration for an announcement within the next 15 years or so, it could very well be that a Green Bay temple is one of those. It will be interesting to see things unfold in regards to those 85+ sites, especially within the next several years. I also know that, for my part, I have two lists of potential temples which I am working on, one for the immediate future and another for later on. It will definitely be exciting to see things unfold in this regard. Hope that helps.
Hey, John! I know that some people see potential sites that make more sense than others. That is no less true when I put forth my own site ideas. If Elder Wilson's statement is correct (that we will have 85+ temples announced within the next 15 years or so), then there are literally any number of locations where temples could be put. In times past, when discussing possible future temple sites on my blog and in other settings, I have received feedback from so many people that has helped me fine-tune my list.
I know for sure that several years ago, my list of potential future temples was 60+ strong. Among those options were several US choices. Many people presented strong arguments in favor of temples in different Wisconsin cities; I have heard of a few, including: the state capital (Madison), and a few people suggested other Wisconsin cities for various reasons. But in the course of these conversations, the general consensus (which was backed not just by those supporting it, but also by several experts on temple matters with whom I have consulted) was that, with all the arguments for or against any city, the one that made the most sense was Green Bay, far and away.
And this is because Green Bay would serve the purpose of being more central, if not for all the Saints in Wisconsin, then to others in those parts of Wisconsin and other surrounding states that might be part of a potential Green Bay district. Until I hear a line of reasoning that favors Madison or any other city (Appleton included), I see no reason to alter my thinking, as I trust those who have indicated to me Green Bay is more likely.
All that aside, given the stagnated growth in the US, I really don't see all that many temples being announced anywhere outside the "Mormon corridor", except in places that we know already have a site selected, until the Lord turns the tide of growth and progression again. That said, given the 85+ sites that may get an official announcement within the next 15 years or so, the Lord will surely surprise us. I could see perhaps 35 such temples within the US, and the other 50 or so elsewhere. For my part, I am working on two lists, one of the immediate future (2-5 years) and one for the more distant future (6-15 years). I also know that, unless Church growth accelerates in Canada, we may only see 1 or 2 temples announced there within that 15 years. In the meantime, we also know that the Winnipeg temple, which is being built for the moment to serve just one stake, has not yet seen earnest work begin. That said, that construction could start at any time. For what it's worth, those are some additional thoughts.
LDSChruchTemples.com has a great resource to see check the size of the largest and smallest districts in the World, Check it out.
Luganville Vanuatu District (13 Branches) Ogwashi-Nsukwa Nigeria District (12 Branches) Pierre South Dakota District (12 Branches) Asamankese Ghana District (11 Branches) Bucharest România District (11 Branches) Camiling Philippines District (11 Branches)
In Wisconsin, we have been told multiple times by visiting general authorities that the time to ask about a temple in Madison is when four stakes are operating there. Probably not going to happen anytime soon...
Language specific branches come and go for a lot of reasons. In the Sheffield case the English wards may have needed the branches vigor.
In Tijuana they did just form a new branch so things are comolex. Over time the Church has decided to up the active expectatuon for units so loss of wards does not mean fewer active members.
I know at least 15 years ago many Latinos who worked in San Diego had small apartments their but would go home to large houses in Tijuana on the weekend. It may be that with more immigrarion enforcement people stay north of the border more. On the other hand various factors may have caused migration away.
On the other hand this might reflect movements in Tijuana where the new wards have been formed gradually but consolidation in other parts of the city was put off as long as possible. I saw this happen on my mission in Las Vegas with one case where 6 wards were combined to make 3.
Ghana and Nigeria continue to see more units added. The Traverse Mountain 13th branch in Lehi was upgraded to a ward. Zimbabwe saw a new branch created. A new district was formed in South Africa.
Is Ghana the country in Africa most covered by the Church geographically after Cape Verde. It is hard to index these things but Ghana is home to more missions than South Africa and seems to have a deeper Church presence. With the forming of the Wa branch all reguons of the country have at least one branch. In South Afrixa the church has very minimal presence in the North Cape Province.
On the other hand Ghana still has large areas not assigned to a regular branch. In the Western Region the western half has no wards or branches. There are regional towns like Enchi with over 10,000 people and many Protestant and Pentecostal Churches not assigned to branches.
Botswana just started letting in foriegn missuonaries for the first time since 2013. At times there were only 10 missionaries in the country all Botswanans.
Paynesville Liberia District is also now to 11 branches. Lome Togo Stake has 14 wards and 3 branches. One branch was just made a ward. I expect a split this year.
Philadelphia will relieve some of the pressures of having the other two out of commission; but Raleigh on top of DC temporarily shutting down seems to be poor planning, poor timing. Not complaining too much, I grew up where the DC temple trip was 11-12 hours away. I might do more family history online with the hours not going to the temple on a shorter day trip.
Members in North Carolina should be able to drive down to Columbia a bit. PA or WV people might go to the Columbus Ohio Temple more.
The DC Visitor's Center will remain open so we should have some more missionary opportunities. It might help us be better missionaries, maybe that will shift our focus a little to grow more.
Southern Alberta is having a regional meeting on the 23rd, where stake boundaries are likely to change. Most likely there will be YSA stake created. Lethbridge alone has 6 YSA wards, and there is a branch in nearby Medicine Hat. There are other possible changes that may happen with in the Southern Alberta stakes. Should be an interesting meeting.
Well Detroit temple was announced in August and dedicated in October of the next year. Monticello Utah Temple may have been done faster. I think we are past the point where we could see Richmond done before DC closes but there might be a way.
My fiancee wants us to work on visiting all the temples. Ok I mainly just said that so I could work in mentioning having gotten engaged.
Well, John, congratulations! Ignore the naysayers. Getting married was the best decision I ever made. Best wishes to you as you embark on the greatest of all journeys life has to offer. As one who's been there, let me give you the same advice my dad gave me as I prepared to get married: In any marital discussion, the man generally has the last word in any argument. And those words will always be, "Yes, dear." Just remember that, and you'll be on the right track. May marriage be as wonderful for you as it has been for us. Again, big congrats!
PS: I have also found, for what it's worth, that the Lord knew what he was talking about in D&C 121:33-46. Verses 33-40 to me speak particularly of how we as the priesthood holders need to be sure that our motivations in situations are pure, while the final six speak of the Lord's way of not only how to lead, but how successful marriages should work. Best wishes again. Thanks for letting us know.
I hope your marriage and fondest dreams are achieved. Going all over the world and visiting all the temples sounds like a great thing to accomplish, but not as great as an eternal family. God bless.
Nathanial, good thought. Of course, there are 12 stakes across southern Virginia, some of whom are 4 or even 5 hours from the temple. The faith of these saints are tested routinely and we see them at the temple, often coming by bus frequently.
Any info on if Raleigh-Durham or Washington is over 80 percent capacity on a regular basis and not just hitting capacity because of an unusually busy week? That is an indicator that they may be looking for a site already
For what it may be worth, I recently discovered that part of the renovation for the Memphis Tennessee Temple will be changing both the exterior and interior look of that temple. The site, which is bigger than the temple that stands on it, may be a good spot for a temple expansion. In my study of temple developments about a year ago, I was advised that, in some areas, it is more likely that we will see current temples expanded than new ones built. Even so, I have also heard that Virginia would be a great candidate for its own temple, and of the many cities people have suggested to me, Richmond sounds like the most likely possibility. Others may disagree with me, but I have had that verified by several others who have also stuidied temple developments past, present, and future. One thing is absolutely certain: If there are going to be 85 or more temples announced in the next 15 years or so, we are surely entering another unprecedented period of temple announcements. I am working on expanding my list of near and far distant future possibilities, including long shots, and it is an evovling process. I personally have no contacts with any info on Raleigh or Washington, but with Washington being bigger, it will likely take longer to renovate than others. And with the sheer size of Washington, if the Saints in the area are filling that temple and will keep neighboring temples equally or more busy during its closure, a temple in Virginia may be a real possibility among those 85 or so. That's just my take on it. Hope that helps.
We've seen quite a few new stakes created in the countries of Central America so far this year - 8 by my count. Hopefully, this bodes well for a possible upcoming temple in Nicaragua.
It is interesting to note that another stake was reportedly created in Nicaragua last Sunday, which is unusual, as July is the typical recess month for the General Authorities. This is the first stake created in that nation in a few years. But that does give me hope that Nicaragua will get a temple sooner rather than later. I was advised several years ago that land has been held in reserve for a temple for Managua for quite a while, and we do have the fact that one was proposed by Elder Nelson for that city in 2012. Nicaragua has been on my list of future temples for years now. I am sure it is one of the 85+ that are being actively considered for an announcement within the next 15 years or so. Time will tell.
While an expansion of yhe temple in Raleigh might happen before a second temple in North Carolina a new temple in central or southern Virginia would still be called for. Of ghe temples about to be renovated only Asuncion might be reasonable to expand. Oklahoma City may have more stakes but they are so dar east that a new temple in Bentonville/Fayetteville is a much better option. The only other temlle in the US east of the Mississippi I see likely in the near future is Pittsburgh Pennsylvania with Maine an extremrly outside candidate. A third temple in Florida in either Tallahasee or Jacksonville is vaguely possible but I expect south Texas and Austin and maybe El Paso to get temples first. I dont see Kansas or South Dakota getting a temlple soon. Wisconsin seems unlikly and Iowa is very hard to imagine with both Nauvoo and Winter Quarters just outside the state. Even though Iowa recently got an additinal stake there is just not the level of membership to justify a temple with 2 less than 10 miles from the state border.
Even though I am a big fan of a Benin City Temple recent evrnts are making me think the next temple announced in West Africa will be Freetown, Sierra Leone.
That is why I have favored Richmond. It makes sense on so many levels. And I don't know what the renovation plans for any of those scheduled might specifically involve, but I did hear that the Memphis renovation would involve changing its appearance inside and out, and I did hear generally that it might in some cases be more feasible to expand some of these Hinckley-era smaller temples in terms of their floor plan and space rather than building new ones. Since Asuncion is the newest of those whose renovation is planned, unless an expansion is part of the plan, it is anyone's guess what the exact plans for any of these temples is. I can only go on what I hear. And I heard years ago from a good friend and former coworker of mine who has ties to Arkansas that land has been held in reserve in Bentonville for a while now. In terms of my own list of potential sites, there are some candidates that are more long-shot possibilties. But when I was urged to expand my thinking in terms of future sites, especially in light of the information from Elder Wilson about 85+ sites being under consideration for an announcement in the next 15 years, I added some of these. In terms of Florida, I learned a while back that the next Florida temple is almost certain to be built in Tallahassee. It is only a question of how soon. I have also heard from many that when Texas gets its next temple, it will likely be in Fort Worth. Austin and El Paso are also possibly among those 85 sites. Kansas and South Dakota are long-shots, but they make sense in terms of distance to the nearest. I heard a while ago that whenever Wisconsin does get a temple, it will likely be in Green Bay. And Des Moines was mentioned as a long-shot possibility a while ago as well. For West Africa, I am certain there will be a temple announced in Freetown Sierra Leone. The only question is when. And in terms of if and when Nigeria will get a second temple, my research and consultation with experts on the subject has me convinced that, whenever that happens, Lagos will likely be the best option. But I am also sure that one will rise in Benin City given too much longer. And maybe both are on the list of 85+. Thanks for the feedback.
Not sure why the Church would build a temple in Tallahassee over Jacksonville. Tallahassee has only one stake. There's one stake about an hour away. The other remaining stakes that would be part of the temple district are close to two hours away. The remaining stakes including Jax's and Pensacola's are at least three hours away.
On the other hand, Jax has three stakes and there are three more stakes within a one hour drive from Jax. There are four more stakes (including Tallahassee's) that would be part of a Jax Temple's district.
Makes much more sense to build a temple in Jax first, and then in Pensacola years later.
What I find truly odd is that the Raleigh temple was built in 9 months, yet to switch out furniture, fixtures, and carpet will take 18 months. Therefore,I think this will involve an expansion of some type. I am think the baptistery most likely because fitting 28 youth and 9 adults from one ward in there currently is nearly impossible. They have a very high usage rate for the baptistery. The church owns another 3.5 acres beside the temple which the town built a road through to access a city park behind the temple. The church could use that for parking if the expansion is larger than the baptistery. I know the church is growing very fast in Apex area where the temple is. The stake president is forecasting to split the stake in 8 years from now. That would mean 5 stakes in the metro area or about 15,000 members. The % rate of members with current temple recommend is in the 75% range for the Apex and Raleigh South Stake. Not sure on the Raleigh Stake.
Other news is something will be happening with the stakes in the Indy metro are at the end of July concerning the boundaries.
The next temple for Florida I would say is more likely pinsacola or Tallahassee seeing that the Orlando temple is not being used though out the week and there is times will there is no one at the temple it would be hard to see anther Temple anyways. But the Birmingham temple is always basy from the reports I have been told. And the times I have been up there I have been up there the sessions were picked with people being trund away. North Florida between Panama City and Pensacola is the fastest growing arie in the state. With moveins alone the church is going at a good speed. I know in my stack we have had an incused by about a 1000 members since the year 2000 accouding to my relagen class at the college North Fl Mormon poplation as incused by 30 % in that time. Tallahassee and Pensacola have also seen great incuses in membership but I don't have the numbers with me at this time. There is talk that the Tallahassee stack is getting close to splating I would say in the next 5 years. I have also been told by the missanrrays that Mobile Alabama could also be likly for the next Alabama temple Witch if it does get a temple that would make Jacksonville with out a doubt be the next Florida Temple. But until Orlando picked up it may take some time for Florida to be ready for another Temple.
Tallahassee is easier to get to then Jacksonville traffic in Jacksonville is a nightmare. I think lake City is a butter oppten but unlikely until the Orlando temple picks up in use. As of now only the weekends are busy at the temple.
I live in the Raleigh Stake and I would agree that the baptistry is heavily used and it would be nice to have more room, especially in the dressing rooms. However, We were told at Church last Sunday that the renovation of the Raleigh Temple will not include an expansion. They mentioned there would be some minor floor plan adjustments but no expansion. Apparently there is a moister problem with the insulation and they will be removing the stone down to the studs. It was referenced that the renovation would be similar to The Montreal Quebec Temple renovation. Again, this is just what I heard on Sunday, not sure where the bishopric got their information.
An historic site in Florida: the site of the murder of Branch President George Paul Canova (1844-1898). He was martyred while returning home from a Church conference in Jacksonville, Florida. The exact spot of his martyrdom is just south of FL State Route 229 (formerly Rt 220) and Clarence Dobbson Road see: https://www.google.com/maps/@30.1554295,-82.2822583,1114m/data=!3m1!1e3
This spot is now in the town of Glen Saint Mary, Florida - just 36 minutes from Jacksonville, Florida (where the first Stake in Florida was organized) Pres. Canova's grandson became the first Stake President in Florida (and the entire southeastern United States).
Glen Saint Mary, Florida is 2 hours from Tallahassee and only 50 minutes from 50 minutes from Live Oak, Florida - the site of many important events in Florida Church history.
I hope that the Glen Saint Mary site is selected.
Quoting from LDS.org A year later, on January 1, [1897] two members of the Quorum of the Twelve visited Florida for the first time. [Elders] Francis M. Lyman and Mathias Cowley organized the area’s first branch and called Brother Canova as the first branch president. Six months after being called as branch president, President Canova was returning from a conference when he was shot and killed. Although five men were arrested, they were later released. No one was ever convicted of the crime.
But members were committed to living the gospel, and the Church continued to grow. In 1947, President George Canova’s grandson, Alvin Canova Chace, was called to be the president of the Florida Stake, the first stake organized in the southeastern United States. It was recognized at the time as the first stake in the east composed mostly of Church members native to an area."
James, I think I saw that there was another new stake in Nicaragua back in January- so two new stakes in that country would certainly seem to strengthen the case for a temple.
In regards to Florida's next temple, I can only speak in terms of what I have heard. And that is that Tallahassee will be the location of the next Florida temple. I trust that because it comes from sources that have studied future possibilities extensively. But it would not surprise me if temples for Jacksonville and Pensacola happened in the long-term.
Again, I cannot speak to whether or not Raleigh will be expanded. What I do know is that the renovation in Memphis will involve changing the interior and exterior look of the temple. And if what I have learned in my study about the land plot on which it sits is any indication, then there is room to grow there. I also was advised a long time ago by several close friends who study temple developments that in some areas, an expansion of some temples may make more sense than building new ones. I know I am doing my level best to ensure that I keep my eyes open for new information.
Interesting additional information about Florida and North Carolina. It will be interesting to see what happens with temple announcements over the next little while. In terms of Nicaragua, every source I have found notes just the one stake created in that nation (which was last Sunday); the last change in Church units in that nation appear to be a district and Nicaragua's second mission, both in 2010. If there has been another stake created there between 2010 and now, it's not in the sources available to me. But I do agree that Nicaragua is a great candidate for a temple, not just because we know that a site has been held in reserve there, but also in view of a proposal of one by the apostle who is now a heartbeat away from the Church presidency, President Nelson. Such a temple was proposed just over five years ago as he was conducting Church business and meetings in the area. So it is sure to happen sooner rather than later.
Anyway it's considered, the prospect of 85 or more temples being announced over the next 15 years means that we are entering yet another unprecedented era of temple announcements and construction. I crunched some numbers, and with 85 minimum being announced during the next 15 years, that would bring the number of temples in any stage to just under 270 by sometime during 2032. So it is not hard at all to believe that the Church could have 70 less (200 minimum) dedicated and in operation two years prior to that, which would be around the 200th anniversary of the Church.
I have found myself over the last little while studying temple-related developments (current and potentially in the future) quite a bit more diligently. It is wonderful to think about the Church having that many temples. Depending on what happens in the next several years, such developments will be much more than one person (or several people) can keep track of. For my part, I am trying to analyze new developments as quickly as I can. My own study on this matter has led me to conclude that the next couple of years may be quite full of temple-related events. 2020 looks like a year that may slow down slightly, but not by much. And the years between 2021 and 2030 are likely to be very busy in those terms as well, especially depending on what happens with the Church in general and with temples in particular between now and then. I am committed to trying to keep track of it all to the best of my ability. And hopefully my blog reports on such subjects are helpful to at least a few of you here. I also know that I have been missing the feedback on my blog posts lately, as I am trying to iron out an issue that has prevented people from commenting. So lately, I have been relying on mainly my own research (which is likely far from perfect). If any of you have any particular feedback for me, please feel free to let me know through a comment on this blog, or through contacting me through my Blogger profile. Thanks to you all for such a stimulating discussion.
James, the Matagalpa Nicaragua Stake was created in January of this year. You likely didn't notice it because it was an existing district created in 1990 that was upgraded, so the unit creation year on the ldschurchtemples website shows 1990. But if you click on it, you will see it is in agreement with what Matt has posted on the sidebar here.
So- two new stakes have been created in that country this year. A great improvement that suggests to me a temple is closer than ever.
For next temple(s) on east coast I have Richmond Virginia Pittsburgh Pennsylvania/Cleveland Ohio Jacksonville/Pensacola Florida Charlotte North Carolina Of course Richmond does seem to look like it may be announced first of the list.
Another plus for Jacksonville is it has the oldest stake east of the Mississippi south of Washington DC. Having such longstanding Church presence is a plus in getting a temple. Since the church in the south-east didnt grow much in the early and mid 20th century from Utah exodusers this could be the first not Utah out migration stake also.
Jacksonville does make a lot of since but intill the Orlando temple picked up I don't see a temple that will take to many stacks a way from it's temple district. Thought the week there is almost no one at the temple. The Birmingham temple from my understanding is getting quite busy a nother temple in South Alabama or an expansion of the temple is self might be needed in the next 5 Years. With that I would begin to thing pinsacola is the more likely or even Tallahassee. But Tallahassee may take to much from Orlando just like Jacksonville would.
With all the staje growth in Honduras they can certainly run the temple without help from Nicaragua and there might be possibilities for Hondurans to help in Nicaragua. On the other hand Nicaragua is close enough that some members there could be temple workers in Honduras so there may be a waiting until there are more of those or they have the experience to train others.
Based solely off of geography and population, I think these are some possible temple candidates in the US
-Likely soon: Richmond, VA Jacksonville, FL
-The "maybe"s: Charlotte, NC Missoula, MT Tooele, UT Eugene, OR Bakersfield, CA Cleveland, OH or Pittsburgh, PA Pensacola, FL Rogers, AR or Joplin, MO or Springfield, MO
-Dark horses A (Reasonably only about 4-5 stakes in a wide temple district): Knoxville, TN Charleston, WV Wichita, KS Modesto, CA McAllen, TX Colorado Springs, CO Elko, NV Des Moines, IA Farmington, NM Flagstaff, AZ or Prescott, AZ
-Dark horses B (main purpose to reduce traffic at other temples): San Jose, CA Oxnard, CA Layton, UT Goodyear, AZ
Can't speak for most of these locations but I live in the Los Angeles temple district and from what I've heard the wards book the temple most weekdays which leaves only Saturday for family time. I also went to the 3 Phoenix metropolitan temples (Gilbert, Mesa, Phoenix) and they were also all busy, although it may have been because it was in the holiday season (late December), so there's that.
Not to derail the temple discussion, but does anyone know why the Bouake First Branch in Cote D'Ivoire was transferred from the Bouake District to Mission stewardship? Seems unusual
Getting back to the temple discussion ;) Here's a thought: what about Punta Arenas, Chile? Though it only has one stake, it's a three and a half hour flight from Santiago and has at least two nearby Argentinian districts (possibly three districts and one stake, I'm not sure) that would also attend. A long shot, obviously, but if Manitoba can get a temple with one stake covering the entire province and an existing temple much closer then it's a possibility.
^ I'd say that for now Puntas Arenas isn't very likely. Maybe we should wait for if the city reaches at least 3 stakes. It isn't really a convenient location (being the tip of South America and all). Which is why Winnipeg was rather surprising, considering it was part of the already small Regina Saskatchewan temple district (wide geographic area, few stakes/districts). The Lord works in mysterious ways, eh?
I think if there were to be an isolated temple built somewhere, it could be Iquitos, Peru. This city has 3 stakes and is only accessible from other cities by air or boat.
Also, I actually realized that the Oxnard temple I previously mentioned is actually pretty unlikely, and perhaps there'd be one in Temecula, CA instead. It may be a mini temple with 7 stakes in the district, pulling from the Redlands and San Diego temple districts. It supposedly has one of the highest rates of LDS members in the state. It has 12 wards and 2 branches, split between 4 buildings. Not sure why it hasn't split yet, but I guess there is a reason behind it. There is also a Mormon Cultural Center in the city (source: Wikipedia only, couldn't find any supporting articles so not too sure). Just something to think about.
Just heard from friend in another church going out to Ethiopia where they dig wells on their church properties and give the water away for free. They gain many converts from people coming for the free water. Does the LDS Church have anything similar in Africa?
Many wards and stakes have been shrinking across California as many move out of state for economic reasons. Don't expect any new stakes or temples here for a long while.
A temple in San Jose, CA is also highly unlikely. The membership in the Silicon Valley has been stagnant to slowly declining for the last two decades so I don't think there will be enough to support a temple there. In addition, there is very little available land to build a temple and if there is any, it will be too expensive for the Church to justify building.
More news on Florida in stack pristhood meeting today in Panama City it was said by the stack prisdent that the Orlando temple is only at 25-30 capacity. But also said in a meeting with other local stack prsidents and bisihop and a number of general authority's that a temple for some where in north west Florida is likely.
Then there is the matter of enough members to staff a temple with members rotating in and out, on an ongoing basis, Provo City Center has a significant issue given it pulls from 10 YSA stakes and many student couples live in some of the others.
There have been times, I learned today, where they have had to scrub an endowment session or even not run initiatories because they did not have enough workers available at times this summer. With Provo in its summer maintenance closing, the situation has been aggravated by the numbers of members wanting to attend a session or do other work.
David, thanks for your observations on Nicaragua stakes. You are right. I am sure those stake upgrades were mentioned previously on many sources. I just didn't count them on my list of those created because they were upgrades, not new units. But with that in mind, in addition to everything else I know about Nicaragua's prospects for a temple, I would definitely say it is just a matter of time. A temple for Nicaragua has been on my list for the last several years, at least since I heard of the proposal for one as presented by then-Elder Nelson 5 years ago. And all of these new developments serve to strengthen the argument in favor of such a temple. Thank you for that correction and clarification.
In terms of future temples, I am sure each of us has strong feelings about why one site may be preferable to another in certain instances. I'm sure everyone recalls how I naively was pushing my argument in favor of Lehi as the next city in Utah County to get a temple. But I was perfectly fine when the Lord moved President Monson to announce one in Saratoga Springs. While I am getting better at such site identifications, I cannot by any stretch of the imagination say that my thoughts on the matter are any more valid or likely than anyone else's. If my latest comments have not spoken sufficiently of my infallibility and imperfections, I apologize.
I will say again that, regarding Florida, my belief in the likelihood of Tallahassee over any other option is based on the opinions I asked for and received from experts in the matter of temple sites. None of these experts are officially sanctioned by the Church, but all of them have a love and enthusiasm for temples and developments relating thereunto. So in the matter of Florida, I can say that I once had Jacksonville on my list but was told by a few of those experts that Tallahassee made more sense. I trust what I have ascertained through such opinions, as well as what my own study shows. That said, is it perfect or infallible? Of course not. Only one man was 100% perfect, and all I can do right now is to try to be like Him. Until He or those whose right it is to decide these matters prove me wrong, I have to trust those who gave this feedback, and my own feelings. I believe that we might see temples in both places at some point, but of the two, Tallahassee seems to be more likely in terms of the near future. It is the Lord's right to prove me wrong, but until then, I trust what my own study and these opinions have indicated.
Speaking of Honduras, that is why I have a temple for San Pedro Sula. Honduras seems ready for its second temple, and that city seems to be the top possibility. 99, you can upgrade temples for Missoula, Tooele, and Arkansas to more than a maybe. Tooele and Layton have widely been mentioned to me by several as being strong candidates for Utah's next temples. And I can tell you (as I have heard from people familiar with the areas) that there are sites set aside in Bentonville Arksansas and Missoula Montana for temples, that are being held in reserve until growth in the area and attendance at the temples from which attendance would be drawn warrant those announcements. Since I trust the reports of those who have experience in these areas, they are more than just "long shots."
I can also see smaller temples (akin to the size of the one planned for Winnipeg) being built to serve just one or two stakes, which opens the possibility for smaller temples in various parts of the world. And given that the past two years has seen second temples announced for two major world capitals (Manila Philippines and Lima Peru), it is not hard to believe that second temples may be announced in other cities where that is needed.
I also know that I have heard from many people that, in some cases, it may make more sense to expand and enlarge temples that were built as "smaller temples" (during particularly the Kimball and Hinckley eras) than it would to build new temples. As I indicated in an earlier comment, the goal of these smaller temples seemed to be to provide temples in closer proximity that could be expanded in the future as the need arose.
I just wanted to end this comment by noting that the Lord knows where He needs new temples to rise, and if the 85+ temples that will be announced in the next 15 years, anyway it is considered, it is clear that we are entering yet another unprecedented era of temple construction. And hopefully I can keep on top of reporting it all. For any who would like to read of some new developments which I have reported on my own blog, you can find a link below. Enjoy! Still trying to iron out the issue with people's ability to comment, but I hope to have it resolved before too long. Thanks!
Yeah, I see where this is going. Quite a few active families have moved out of our ward to head east to Utah, Arizona etc, and some just abruptly stop coming. Not sure if this is normal but in our ward about 15-20% is active. Just two years ago, a busier ward was disbanded and the members were split between our ward and another and the church discarded that building. I'm not sure how many baptisms we have a year but last year the ward had maybe 3 so I'm guessing that's typical. Time will tell, so perhaps you're right. Maybe the Los Angeles temple doesn't need splitting because there's also Redlands and Newport Beach.
Another element in all of that is that there are many people in the Church (my wife and I being one example) who have health issues that presently limit our ability to attend fully. About three months ago, we were exhorted to faithfulness and to be more active in the Church, as if that alone would be enough to eliminate the challenges we are dealing with. Part of that was a misunderstanding and lack of compassion for our situation; another part I'm sure is that this part of the Lord's vineyard is full of people who are comparatively more wealthy and have not seemed to have any real challenges. Maybe part of why the Lord brought us here is that He knew our situation as it now is would be a challenge for the both the ward leadership and the members. We have heard from so many who think we've gone inactive of our own free will and choice. Were it not for limits to our functionality because of these health issues, we would likely be in a position to contribute to ward meetings more and we might be in a position to make a difference. For the moment, we proceed on faith, even as we are seemingly forgotten, neglected, overlooked, misunderstood, and underappreciated. Truly a learning experience for all. I also know that we have a large number of Primary children, few youth, and few active full-tithe paying Melchizedek Priesthood holders and Relief Society members. I have heard my parents speak of situations like this, but this is the first time I have witnessed it first-hand. The one thing evident in all of this is that the Lord is providing this experience for the growth of all concerned. He knows what He is doing. I take the rest on as much faith as I can muster.
Today at my ward the closing prayer in sacrament meeting was given by a sister originally from Chennai, India whose husvand also from Chennai is here in metro Detroit doing an internship while earning a PhD in mechanical engineering from BYU.
My fiancees daughter goes to youth conference tomorrow. They are going to Palmyra and will not be back till Friday. She made a friend with a white girl from Utah who is coming on the trip who wants to date a black boy. I havent figured out tge logistics of someone from Utah coming to our stakes youth conference.
I just read that so far this year 50% of refugees admitted to the,US have been Christians as opposed to 44% last year. The percentage for Muslims went from 46% to 38%. The number one country of origin for refugees in the US this year has been the DR Congo with over 3000 from that country.
California is a case of attrition and growth at the same time. With all the missions there (about 15-20?) there are thousands joining the Church every year, but there is a trend of ward and even stake consolidations. The Highland Stake that I attended for two years was fused in 2005, I think, and maybe a half dozen have disappeared since then. This is the US's most populace state; it is on the forefront of many trends. But it does have a constant outflow of people throughout the nation and world. How many former California Saints live in the Intermountain West, Texas, and other US places? I will be interested to see when California finally achieves a million members. Could another US state (non-Utah) do this first?
Temples will continue to be built internationally at a strong pace. I wonder how much foreign temples depend on US economic tithes to build and maintain. Much of the growth of the faith can be attributed to financial issues like employment and GDP per capita. Cultural factors have a place, I think of Greece as an example of poor growth because of a combination of all of the above.
David, I am getting back to you on your comment about unit growth in Nicaragua. I did some study on that this week, and between the one new stake (created earlier this month) and the two districts upgraded to stakes (1 each last year and this year), Nicaragua's overall unit growth is more substantial than I originally registered. I apologize for overlooking/forgetting/not being aware of all of that. Thank you for your correction and clarifications. But if anything, that additional study and what I uncovered has only served to solidify my belief that a Nicaraguan temple is imminent. It may be among the 85+ that are set to be announced within the next 15 years, but I personally have had such a temple on my "list" since I got serious about temple site predictions and research about 2 years ago. One thing is certain: We are going to see quite an expansion of temple developments within the next 15-20 years, and for my part, I will try to stay on top of it all. Thanks again to you all for the intriguing and inspiring discussions.
And, just in case this blog has new readers that are not familiar with my work, I thought I would mention that I am a blogger myself. My focus has been on apostolic news and updates, General Conference predictions and news, general Church news items, and all current and potential future temple-related developments. Check it out!
Idaho is not yet halfway there (at 444,614 members as of year-end 2016), Arizona has 423,056 (also as of year end), and by the end of last year, California Church leaders reported 771,464 members. While Church growth within the US is stagnating, and while I do not have first-hand experience with or knowledge of what is going on with missionary efforts in any of those stakes, I find it hard to believe that both Arizona and Idaho will reach 1 million members before California does. Unless California members are exiting and moving into other states en masse (which is possible, as I have been seeing quite a few more California license plates here in Utah within the last seven years than I did in the 20-some-odd years previous; don't get me started on California drivers), I wonder why you think it will be otherwise. Can you clarify, please? No disrespect intended. I feel the numbers speak for themselves.
For California to reach 1 million LDS it will require constant conversions among the immigrant populations, especially Latinos. But there are significant numbers of others, including southeast Asians, east and south Asians, Africans, Pacific Islanders. The growth rate has been all right the last 20 years, but the out migration has been constant. African-American growth needs to continue; I saw some of that in 1999-2000s, but I also some black converts struggle to stay active. As well as many whites and Latinos.
That is why I have not been able to figure out why John stated above that both Arizona and Idaho might reach 1 million members prior to California. Growth is stagnating all over the US, except for within the "Mormon corridor" of Idaho, Arizona, and Utah. Even so, California has almost 800,000 members, while both Arizona and Idaho have barely half of that. So I don't know what the reasoning behind his statement was. It would be interesting to find out. The only thing I can think of is if missionary work in California is yielding more overall conversion and better retention. But I don't think such things can be measured well. It is an interesting prospect to consider, if nothing else.
In the meantime, with my thanks to Matt for allowing me to keep you all informed, I wanted to note that the problems with people not being able to comment on the posts to my blog has now been resolved completely. Anyone willing to read (and, if you feel so inclined, to comment) is more than welcome. Thanks.
77 comments:
That was a fantastic newsletter, Matt! Thanks for sharing your love of Church growth developments with all of us. I am always amazed to read these end-of-the-month detailed reports on the strides the Church has made worldwide every month. The Lord is truly hastening His work in its time. Thanks again.
For me, this newsletter is kind of sad. My ward growing up was the Georgetown, Ohio Ward. It's about 45 miles east of Cincinnati. The newsletter showed the area closed. The Ward was actually renamed Winchester Ward and the Adams branch was consolidated into the Ward. My mother was telling me the Winchester Ward will no longer be meeting in the Georgetown building and instead will be meeting in the Adams branch building. Not sure what the church will do with the unattended building now. My grandfather helped build the meetinghouse long before I was born. He and his family moved to the area sometime during the construction process. My grandfather was the bishop for some time. My father was also bishop for some time while I was a youth. The Ward had been struggling for about 5 to 10 years. Many people had moved away (including my family)or stopped attending. I hope there can be some future growth in the area.
Yayo branch is splitting http://elderjorgenson.blogspot.com/2017/07/yayo-week-12.html
The Saratoga Springs Utah stake just reached 14 wards. Probably will split soon. Another new ward in St George. Also a new ward in Lagos, Nigeria. Hopefully that city will get,a twmple soon. With 43 stakes hopefully Nigeria can have more stakes.
Sorry about the Winchester ward in Ohio.Two former branches in my home Bloomington Stake were removed by lethargy: Brazil and Spencer. I suppose there was a branch in Clinton, too, after my youth. The midwest definitely has large swaths where LDS are considered less favorably. But alk will be made whole, like Nauvoo and the Kirtland temple. A temple for Wisconsin is still a ways away, huh?
Thanks to you all for the insights you shared here. Eduardo, I absolutely share your sentiment: it is hard to see any case where Church units are discontinued. I know that there are good reasons for that to happen (for example, if local leadership feels that the weaker units could be more effective if absorbed by those that are, by comparison, doing slightly better but could benefit from such an arrangement), but that doesn't make it any easier.
Your comment about a potential temple for Wisconsin reminded me that in my own list of possible future temples, I had mentioned the possibility of one in Madison, that state's capital. But I heard from several people that if and when Wisconsin does get a temple (which may not be anytime too soon, but will be soon enough), Green Bay may be the best candidate city for that milestone. The additional study I have done bears out that opinion. And since Elder Wilson stated that 85+ potential temple sites are under active consideration for an announcement within the next 15 years or so, it could very well be that a Green Bay temple is one of those. It will be interesting to see things unfold in regards to those 85+ sites, especially within the next several years. I also know that, for my part, I have two lists of potential temples which I am working on, one for the immediate future and another for later on. It will definitely be exciting to see things unfold in this regard. Hope that helps.
I think Appleton would be a better place for a temple than Green Bay, more central to Church membership.
A district in Ghana just reached 11 branches. Is that a record?
Hey, John! I know that some people see potential sites that make more sense than others. That is no less true when I put forth my own site ideas. If Elder Wilson's statement is correct (that we will have 85+ temples announced within the next 15 years or so), then there are literally any number of locations where temples could be put. In times past, when discussing possible future temple sites on my blog and in other settings, I have received feedback from so many people that has helped me fine-tune my list.
I know for sure that several years ago, my list of potential future temples was 60+ strong. Among those options were several US choices. Many people presented strong arguments in favor of temples in different Wisconsin cities; I have heard of a few, including: the state capital (Madison), and a few people suggested other Wisconsin cities for various reasons. But in the course of these conversations, the general consensus (which was backed not just by those supporting it, but also by several experts on temple matters with whom I have consulted) was that, with all the arguments for or against any city, the one that made the most sense was Green Bay, far and away.
And this is because Green Bay would serve the purpose of being more central, if not for all the Saints in Wisconsin, then to others in those parts of Wisconsin and other surrounding states that might be part of a potential Green Bay district. Until I hear a line of reasoning that favors Madison or any other city (Appleton included), I see no reason to alter my thinking, as I trust those who have indicated to me Green Bay is more likely.
All that aside, given the stagnated growth in the US, I really don't see all that many temples being announced anywhere outside the "Mormon corridor", except in places that we know already have a site selected, until the Lord turns the tide of growth and progression again. That said, given the 85+ sites that may get an official announcement within the next 15 years or so, the Lord will surely surprise us. I could see perhaps 35 such temples within the US, and the other 50 or so elsewhere. For my part, I am working on two lists, one of the immediate future (2-5 years) and one for the more distant future (6-15 years). I also know that, unless Church growth accelerates in Canada, we may only see 1 or 2 temples announced there within that 15 years. In the meantime, we also know that the Winnipeg temple, which is being built for the moment to serve just one stake, has not yet seen earnest work begin. That said, that construction could start at any time. For what it's worth, those are some additional thoughts.
LDSChruchTemples.com has a great resource to see check the size of the largest and smallest districts in the World, Check it out.
Luganville Vanuatu District (13 Branches)
Ogwashi-Nsukwa Nigeria District (12 Branches)
Pierre South Dakota District (12 Branches)
Asamankese Ghana District (11 Branches)
Bucharest România District (11 Branches)
Camiling Philippines District (11 Branches)
http://ldschurchtemples.org/statistics/units/size/
In Wisconsin, we have been told multiple times by visiting general authorities that the time to ask about a temple in Madison is when four stakes are operating there. Probably not going to happen anytime soon...
Five wards discontinued in Tijuana. And the Slovakian branch in Sheffield that was the subject of faith-promoting Ensign coverage. Laaaaame.
Language specific branches come and go for a lot of reasons. In the Sheffield case the English wards may have needed the branches vigor.
In Tijuana they did just form a new branch so things are comolex. Over time the Church has decided to up the active expectatuon for units so loss of wards does not mean fewer active members.
I know at least 15 years ago many Latinos who worked in San Diego had small apartments their but would go home to large houses in Tijuana on the weekend. It may be that with more immigrarion enforcement people stay north of the border more. On the other hand various factors may have caused migration away.
On the other hand this might reflect movements in Tijuana where the new wards have been formed gradually but consolidation in other parts of the city was put off as long as possible. I saw this happen on my mission in Las Vegas with one case where 6 wards were combined to make 3.
Ghana and Nigeria continue to see more units added. The Traverse Mountain 13th branch in Lehi was upgraded to a ward. Zimbabwe saw a new branch created. A new district was formed in South Africa.
Is Ghana the country in Africa most covered by the Church geographically after Cape Verde. It is hard to index these things but Ghana is home to more missions than South Africa and seems to have a deeper Church presence. With the forming of the Wa branch all reguons of the country have at least one branch. In South Afrixa the church has very minimal presence in the North Cape Province.
On the other hand Ghana still has large areas not assigned to a regular branch. In the Western Region the western half has no wards or branches. There are regional towns like Enchi with over 10,000 people and many Protestant and Pentecostal Churches not assigned to branches.
I have to admit I think both Richmond Virginia and north-west Arkansas will get temples soon.
Botswana just started letting in foriegn missuonaries for the first time since 2013. At times there were only 10 missionaries in the country all Botswanans.
Paynesville Liberia District is also now to 11 branches. Lome Togo Stake has 14 wards and 3 branches. One branch was just made a ward. I expect a split this year.
I wish they had a Richmond Temple before the DC and Raleigh temples close down.
I certainly wish that had happened (Richmond Temple prior to DC and Raleigh closing down). But, no temple could be built that fast.
Philadelphia will relieve some of the pressures of having the other two out of commission; but Raleigh on top of DC temporarily shutting down seems to be poor planning, poor timing. Not complaining too much, I grew up where the DC temple trip was 11-12 hours away. I might do more family history online with the hours not going to the temple on a shorter day trip.
Members in North Carolina should be able to drive down to Columbia a bit. PA or WV people might go to the Columbus Ohio Temple more.
The DC Visitor's Center will remain open so we should have some more missionary opportunities. It might help us be better missionaries, maybe that will shift our focus a little to grow more.
Southern Alberta is having a regional meeting on the 23rd, where stake boundaries are likely to change. Most likely there will be YSA stake created. Lethbridge alone has 6 YSA wards, and there is a branch in nearby Medicine Hat. There are other possible changes that may happen with in the Southern Alberta stakes. Should be an interesting meeting.
Well Detroit temple was announced in August and dedicated in October of the next year. Monticello Utah Temple may have been done faster. I think we are past the point where we could see Richmond done before DC closes but there might be a way.
My fiancee wants us to work on visiting all the temples. Ok I mainly just said that so I could work in mentioning having gotten engaged.
Congrats, John!!
Happy news! Best wishes to both of you, John.
Happy, not cool.
Well, John, congratulations! Ignore the naysayers. Getting married was the best decision I ever made. Best wishes to you as you embark on the greatest of all journeys life has to offer. As one who's been there, let me give you the same advice my dad gave me as I prepared to get married: In any marital discussion, the man generally has the last word in any argument. And those words will always be, "Yes, dear." Just remember that, and you'll be on the right track. May marriage be as wonderful for you as it has been for us. Again, big congrats!
PS: I have also found, for what it's worth, that the Lord knew what he was talking about in D&C 121:33-46. Verses 33-40 to me speak particularly of how we as the priesthood holders need to be sure that our motivations in situations are pure, while the final six speak of the Lord's way of not only how to lead, but how successful marriages should work. Best wishes again. Thanks for letting us know.
I hope your marriage and fondest dreams are achieved. Going all over the world and visiting all the temples sounds like a great thing to accomplish, but not as great as an eternal family. God bless.
Maybe the timing of D.C. and Raleigh is so that we (generality) can prove to the Lord that we are ready for another temple in the area.
John, congratulations.
Nathanial, good thought. Of course, there are 12 stakes across southern Virginia, some of whom are 4 or even 5 hours from the temple. The faith of these saints are tested routinely and we see them at the temple, often coming by bus frequently.
Any info on if Raleigh-Durham or Washington is over 80 percent capacity on a regular basis and not just hitting capacity because of an unusually busy week? That is an indicator that they may be looking for a site already
For what it may be worth, I recently discovered that part of the renovation for the Memphis Tennessee Temple will be changing both the exterior and interior look of that temple. The site, which is bigger than the temple that stands on it, may be a good spot for a temple expansion. In my study of temple developments about a year ago, I was advised that, in some areas, it is more likely that we will see current temples expanded than new ones built. Even so, I have also heard that Virginia would be a great candidate for its own temple, and of the many cities people have suggested to me, Richmond sounds like the most likely possibility. Others may disagree with me, but I have had that verified by several others who have also stuidied temple developments past, present, and future. One thing is absolutely certain: If there are going to be 85 or more temples announced in the next 15 years or so, we are surely entering another unprecedented period of temple announcements. I am working on expanding my list of near and far distant future possibilities, including long shots, and it is an evovling process. I personally have no contacts with any info on Raleigh or Washington, but with Washington being bigger, it will likely take longer to renovate than others. And with the sheer size of Washington, if the Saints in the area are filling that temple and will keep neighboring temples equally or more busy during its closure, a temple in Virginia may be a real possibility among those 85 or so. That's just my take on it. Hope that helps.
We've seen quite a few new stakes created in the countries of Central America so far this year - 8 by my count. Hopefully, this bodes well for a possible upcoming temple in Nicaragua.
It is interesting to note that another stake was reportedly created in Nicaragua last Sunday, which is unusual, as July is the typical recess month for the General Authorities. This is the first stake created in that nation in a few years. But that does give me hope that Nicaragua will get a temple sooner rather than later. I was advised several years ago that land has been held in reserve for a temple for Managua for quite a while, and we do have the fact that one was proposed by Elder Nelson for that city in 2012. Nicaragua has been on my list of future temples for years now. I am sure it is one of the 85+ that are being actively considered for an announcement within the next 15 years or so. Time will tell.
While an expansion of yhe temple in Raleigh might happen before a second temple in North Carolina a new temple in central or southern Virginia would still be called for. Of ghe temples about to be renovated only Asuncion might be reasonable to expand. Oklahoma City may have more stakes but they are so dar east that a new temple in Bentonville/Fayetteville is a much better option. The only other temlle in the US east of the Mississippi I see likely in the near future is Pittsburgh Pennsylvania with Maine an extremrly outside candidate. A third temple in Florida in either Tallahasee or Jacksonville is vaguely possible but I expect south Texas and Austin and maybe El Paso to get temples first. I dont see Kansas or South Dakota getting a temlple soon. Wisconsin seems unlikly and Iowa is very hard to imagine with both Nauvoo and Winter Quarters just outside the state. Even though Iowa recently got an additinal stake there is just not the level of membership to justify a temple with 2 less than 10 miles from the state border.
Even though I am a big fan of a Benin City Temple recent evrnts are making me think the next temple announced in West Africa will be Freetown, Sierra Leone.
That is why I have favored Richmond. It makes sense on so many levels. And I don't know what the renovation plans for any of those scheduled might specifically involve, but I did hear that the Memphis renovation would involve changing its appearance inside and out, and I did hear generally that it might in some cases be more feasible to expand some of these Hinckley-era smaller temples in terms of their floor plan and space rather than building new ones. Since Asuncion is the newest of those whose renovation is planned, unless an expansion is part of the plan, it is anyone's guess what the exact plans for any of these temples is. I can only go on what I hear. And I heard years ago from a good friend and former coworker of mine who has ties to Arkansas that land has been held in reserve in Bentonville for a while now. In terms of my own list of potential sites, there are some candidates that are more long-shot possibilties. But when I was urged to expand my thinking in terms of future sites, especially in light of the information from Elder Wilson about 85+ sites being under consideration for an announcement in the next 15 years, I added some of these. In terms of Florida, I learned a while back that the next Florida temple is almost certain to be built in Tallahassee. It is only a question of how soon. I have also heard from many that when Texas gets its next temple, it will likely be in Fort Worth. Austin and El Paso are also possibly among those 85 sites. Kansas and South Dakota are long-shots, but they make sense in terms of distance to the nearest. I heard a while ago that whenever Wisconsin does get a temple, it will likely be in Green Bay. And Des Moines was mentioned as a long-shot possibility a while ago as well. For West Africa, I am certain there will be a temple announced in Freetown Sierra Leone. The only question is when. And in terms of if and when Nigeria will get a second temple, my research and consultation with experts on the subject has me convinced that, whenever that happens, Lagos will likely be the best option. But I am also sure that one will rise in Benin City given too much longer. And maybe both are on the list of 85+. Thanks for the feedback.
Other 2 Canadian cities for YSA stakes could be
Edmonton with 5 wards 1 branch
Calgary with 6 wards.
Not sure why the Church would build a temple in Tallahassee over Jacksonville. Tallahassee has only one stake. There's one stake about an hour away. The other remaining stakes that would be part of the temple district are close to two hours away. The remaining stakes including Jax's and Pensacola's are at least three hours away.
On the other hand, Jax has three stakes and there are three more stakes within a one hour drive from Jax. There are four more stakes (including Tallahassee's) that would be part of a Jax Temple's district.
Makes much more sense to build a temple in Jax first, and then in Pensacola years later.
What I find truly odd is that the Raleigh temple was built in 9 months, yet to switch out furniture, fixtures, and carpet will take 18 months. Therefore,I think this will involve an expansion of some type. I am think the baptistery most likely because fitting 28 youth and 9 adults from one ward in there currently is nearly impossible. They have a very high usage rate for the baptistery. The church owns another 3.5 acres beside the temple which the town built a road through to access a city park behind the temple. The church could use that for parking if the expansion is larger than the baptistery. I know the church is growing very fast in Apex area where the temple is. The stake president is forecasting to split the stake in 8 years from now. That would mean 5 stakes in the metro area or about 15,000 members. The % rate of members with current temple recommend is in the 75% range for the Apex and Raleigh South Stake. Not sure on the Raleigh Stake.
Other news is something will be happening with the stakes in the Indy metro are at the end of July concerning the boundaries.
The next temple for Florida I would say is more likely pinsacola or Tallahassee seeing that the Orlando temple is not being used though out the week and there is times will there is no one at the temple it would be hard to see anther Temple anyways.
But the Birmingham temple is always basy from the reports I have been told. And the times I have been up there I have been up there the sessions were picked with people being trund away.
North Florida between Panama City and Pensacola is the fastest growing arie in the state. With moveins alone the church is going at a good speed. I know in my stack we have had an incused by about a 1000 members since the year 2000 accouding to my relagen class at the college North Fl Mormon poplation as incused by 30 % in that time. Tallahassee and Pensacola have also seen great incuses in membership but I don't have the numbers with me at this time.
There is talk that the Tallahassee stack is getting close to splating I would say in the next 5 years.
I have also been told by the missanrrays that Mobile Alabama could also be likly for the next Alabama temple Witch if it does get a temple that would make Jacksonville with out a doubt be the next Florida Temple.
But until Orlando picked up it may take some time for Florida to be ready for another Temple.
Tallahassee is easier to get to then Jacksonville traffic in Jacksonville is a nightmare.
I think lake City is a butter oppten but unlikely until the Orlando temple picks up in use. As of now only the weekends are busy at the temple.
Port-au-Prince Haiti groundbreaking announced. Rendering shows it being similar in general design to Fort Laderdale
http://bit.ly/2t8K4mo
I live in the Raleigh Stake and I would agree that the baptistry is heavily used and it would be nice to have more room, especially in the dressing rooms. However, We were told at Church last Sunday that the renovation of the Raleigh Temple will not include an expansion. They mentioned there would be some minor floor plan adjustments but no expansion. Apparently there is a moister problem with the insulation and they will be removing the stone down to the studs. It was referenced that the renovation would be similar to The Montreal Quebec Temple renovation. Again, this is just what I heard on Sunday, not sure where the bishopric got their information.
Apparently most if not all of the smaller temples built around 2000 have a moisture problem.
An historic site in Florida: the site of the murder of Branch President George Paul Canova (1844-1898). He was martyred while returning home from a Church conference in Jacksonville, Florida. The exact spot of his martyrdom is just south of FL State Route 229 (formerly Rt 220) and Clarence Dobbson Road see: https://www.google.com/maps/@30.1554295,-82.2822583,1114m/data=!3m1!1e3
This spot is now in the town of Glen Saint Mary, Florida - just 36 minutes from Jacksonville, Florida (where the first Stake in Florida was organized) Pres. Canova's grandson became the first Stake President in Florida (and the entire southeastern United States).
Glen Saint Mary, Florida is 2 hours from Tallahassee and only 50 minutes from 50 minutes from Live Oak, Florida - the site of many important events in Florida Church history.
I hope that the Glen Saint Mary site is selected.
Quoting from LDS.org
A year later, on January 1, [1897] two members of the Quorum of the Twelve visited Florida for the first time. [Elders] Francis M. Lyman and Mathias Cowley organized the area’s first branch and called Brother Canova as the first branch president. Six months after being called as branch president, President Canova was returning from a conference when he was shot and killed. Although five men were arrested, they were later released. No one was ever convicted of the crime.
But members were committed to living the gospel, and the Church continued to grow. In 1947, President George Canova’s grandson, Alvin Canova Chace, was called to be the president of the Florida Stake, the first stake organized in the southeastern United States. It was recognized at the time as the first stake in the east composed mostly of Church members native to an area."
Tom
Thomas Jay Kemp
James, I think I saw that there was another new stake in Nicaragua back in January- so two new stakes in that country would certainly seem to strengthen the case for a temple.
In regards to Florida's next temple, I can only speak in terms of what I have heard. And that is that Tallahassee will be the location of the next Florida temple. I trust that because it comes from sources that have studied future possibilities extensively. But it would not surprise me if temples for Jacksonville and Pensacola happened in the long-term.
Again, I cannot speak to whether or not Raleigh will be expanded. What I do know is that the renovation in Memphis will involve changing the interior and exterior look of the temple. And if what I have learned in my study about the land plot on which it sits is any indication, then there is room to grow there. I also was advised a long time ago by several close friends who study temple developments that in some areas, an expansion of some temples may make more sense than building new ones. I know I am doing my level best to ensure that I keep my eyes open for new information.
Interesting additional information about Florida and North Carolina. It will be interesting to see what happens with temple announcements over the next little while. In terms of Nicaragua, every source I have found notes just the one stake created in that nation (which was last Sunday); the last change in Church units in that nation appear to be a district and Nicaragua's second mission, both in 2010. If there has been another stake created there between 2010 and now, it's not in the sources available to me. But I do agree that Nicaragua is a great candidate for a temple, not just because we know that a site has been held in reserve there, but also in view of a proposal of one by the apostle who is now a heartbeat away from the Church presidency, President Nelson. Such a temple was proposed just over five years ago as he was conducting Church business and meetings in the area. So it is sure to happen sooner rather than later.
Anyway it's considered, the prospect of 85 or more temples being announced over the next 15 years means that we are entering yet another unprecedented era of temple announcements and construction. I crunched some numbers, and with 85 minimum being announced during the next 15 years, that would bring the number of temples in any stage to just under 270 by sometime during 2032. So it is not hard at all to believe that the Church could have 70 less (200 minimum) dedicated and in operation two years prior to that, which would be around the 200th anniversary of the Church.
I have found myself over the last little while studying temple-related developments (current and potentially in the future) quite a bit more diligently. It is wonderful to think about the Church having that many temples. Depending on what happens in the next several years, such developments will be much more than one person (or several people) can keep track of. For my part, I am trying to analyze new developments as quickly as I can. My own study on this matter has led me to conclude that the next couple of years may be quite full of temple-related events. 2020 looks like a year that may slow down slightly, but not by much. And the years between 2021 and 2030 are likely to be very busy in those terms as well, especially depending on what happens with the Church in general and with temples in particular between now and then. I am committed to trying to keep track of it all to the best of my ability. And hopefully my blog reports on such subjects are helpful to at least a few of you here. I also know that I have been missing the feedback on my blog posts lately, as I am trying to iron out an issue that has prevented people from commenting. So lately, I have been relying on mainly my own research (which is likely far from perfect). If any of you have any particular feedback for me, please feel free to let me know through a comment on this blog, or through contacting me through my Blogger profile. Thanks to you all for such a stimulating discussion.
James, the Matagalpa Nicaragua Stake was created in January of this year. You likely didn't notice it because it was an existing district created in 1990 that was upgraded, so the unit creation year on the ldschurchtemples website shows 1990. But if you click on it, you will see it is in agreement with what Matt has posted on the sidebar here.
So- two new stakes have been created in that country this year. A great improvement that suggests to me a temple is closer than ever.
Also, the Managua Nicaragua Las Americas Stake was upgraded from a district in February of 2016. That makes three stakes in a year and a half.
For next temple(s) on east coast I have
Richmond Virginia
Pittsburgh Pennsylvania/Cleveland Ohio
Jacksonville/Pensacola Florida
Charlotte North Carolina
Of course Richmond does seem to look like it may be announced first of the list.
Another plus for Jacksonville is it has the oldest stake east of the Mississippi south of Washington DC. Having such longstanding Church presence is a plus in getting a temple. Since the church in the south-east didnt grow much in the early and mid 20th century from Utah exodusers this could be the first not Utah out migration stake also.
Jacksonville does make a lot of since but intill the Orlando temple picked up I don't see a temple that will take to many stacks a way from it's temple district. Thought the week there is almost no one at the temple. The Birmingham temple from my understanding is getting quite busy a nother temple in South Alabama or an expansion of the temple is self might be needed in the next 5 Years.
With that I would begin to thing pinsacola is the more likely or even Tallahassee. But Tallahassee may take to much from Orlando just like Jacksonville would.
With all the staje growth in Honduras they can certainly run the temple without help from Nicaragua and there might be possibilities for Hondurans to help in Nicaragua. On the other hand Nicaragua is close enough that some members there could be temple workers in Honduras so there may be a waiting until there are more of those or they have the experience to train others.
Based solely off of geography and population, I think these are some possible temple candidates in the US
-Likely soon:
Richmond, VA
Jacksonville, FL
-The "maybe"s:
Charlotte, NC
Missoula, MT
Tooele, UT
Eugene, OR
Bakersfield, CA
Cleveland, OH or Pittsburgh, PA
Pensacola, FL
Rogers, AR or Joplin, MO or Springfield, MO
-Dark horses A (Reasonably only about 4-5 stakes in a wide temple district):
Knoxville, TN
Charleston, WV
Wichita, KS
Modesto, CA
McAllen, TX
Colorado Springs, CO
Elko, NV
Des Moines, IA
Farmington, NM
Flagstaff, AZ or Prescott, AZ
-Dark horses B (main purpose to reduce traffic at other temples):
San Jose, CA
Oxnard, CA
Layton, UT
Goodyear, AZ
Can't speak for most of these locations but I live in the Los Angeles temple district and from what I've heard the wards book the temple most weekdays which leaves only Saturday for family time. I also went to the 3 Phoenix metropolitan temples (Gilbert, Mesa, Phoenix) and they were also all busy, although it may have been because it was in the holiday season (late December), so there's that.
Not to derail the temple discussion, but does anyone know why the Bouake First Branch in Cote D'Ivoire was transferred from the Bouake District to Mission stewardship? Seems unusual
I assumed that was a glitch in CDOL or whatever.
Getting back to the temple discussion ;) Here's a thought: what about Punta Arenas, Chile? Though it only has one stake, it's a three and a half hour flight from Santiago and has at least two nearby Argentinian districts (possibly three districts and one stake, I'm not sure) that would also attend. A long shot, obviously, but if Manitoba can get a temple with one stake covering the entire province and an existing temple much closer then it's a possibility.
^ I'd say that for now Puntas Arenas isn't very likely. Maybe we should wait for if the city reaches at least 3 stakes. It isn't really a convenient location (being the tip of South America and all). Which is why Winnipeg was rather surprising, considering it was part of the already small Regina Saskatchewan temple district (wide geographic area, few stakes/districts). The Lord works in mysterious ways, eh?
I think if there were to be an isolated temple built somewhere, it could be Iquitos, Peru. This city has 3 stakes and is only accessible from other cities by air or boat.
Also, I actually realized that the Oxnard temple I previously mentioned is actually pretty unlikely, and perhaps there'd be one in Temecula, CA instead. It may be a mini temple with 7 stakes in the district, pulling from the Redlands and San Diego temple districts. It supposedly has one of the highest rates of LDS members in the state. It has 12 wards and 2 branches, split between 4 buildings. Not sure why it hasn't split yet, but I guess there is a reason behind it. There is also a Mormon Cultural Center in the city (source: Wikipedia only, couldn't find any supporting articles so not too sure). Just something to think about.
Oxnard is also part of the Camarillo CA Stake, which has, in the last couple of years, lost 4 wards, three of them were in Oxnard.
Just heard from friend in another church going out to Ethiopia where they dig wells on their church properties and give the water away for free. They gain many converts from people coming for the free water. Does the LDS Church have anything similar in Africa?
Many wards and stakes have been shrinking across California as many move out of state for economic reasons. Don't expect any new stakes or temples here for a long while.
A temple in San Jose, CA is also highly unlikely. The membership in the Silicon Valley has been stagnant to slowly declining for the last two decades so I don't think there will be enough to support a temple there. In addition, there is very little available land to build a temple and if there is any, it will be too expensive for the Church to justify building.
More news on Florida in stack pristhood meeting today in Panama City it was said by the stack prisdent that the Orlando temple is only at 25-30 capacity. But also said in a meeting with other local stack prsidents and bisihop and a number of general authority's that a temple for some where in north west Florida is likely.
Then there is the matter of enough members to staff a temple with members rotating in and out, on an ongoing basis, Provo City Center has a significant issue given it pulls from 10 YSA stakes and many student couples live in some of the others.
There have been times, I learned today, where they have had to scrub an endowment session or even not run initiatories because they did not have enough workers available at times this summer. With Provo in its summer maintenance closing, the situation has been aggravated by the numbers of members wanting to attend a session or do other work.
David, thanks for your observations on Nicaragua stakes. You are right. I am sure those stake upgrades were mentioned previously on many sources. I just didn't count them on my list of those created because they were upgrades, not new units. But with that in mind, in addition to everything else I know about Nicaragua's prospects for a temple, I would definitely say it is just a matter of time. A temple for Nicaragua has been on my list for the last several years, at least since I heard of the proposal for one as presented by then-Elder Nelson 5 years ago. And all of these new developments serve to strengthen the argument in favor of such a temple. Thank you for that correction and clarification.
In terms of future temples, I am sure each of us has strong feelings about why one site may be preferable to another in certain instances. I'm sure everyone recalls how I naively was pushing my argument in favor of Lehi as the next city in Utah County to get a temple. But I was perfectly fine when the Lord moved President Monson to announce one in Saratoga Springs. While I am getting better at such site identifications, I cannot by any stretch of the imagination say that my thoughts on the matter are any more valid or likely than anyone else's. If my latest comments have not spoken sufficiently of my infallibility and imperfections, I apologize.
I will say again that, regarding Florida, my belief in the likelihood of Tallahassee over any other option is based on the opinions I asked for and received from experts in the matter of temple sites. None of these experts are officially sanctioned by the Church, but all of them have a love and enthusiasm for temples and developments relating thereunto. So in the matter of Florida, I can say that I once had Jacksonville on my list but was told by a few of those experts that Tallahassee made more sense. I trust what I have ascertained through such opinions, as well as what my own study shows. That said, is it perfect or infallible? Of course not. Only one man was 100% perfect, and all I can do right now is to try to be like Him. Until He or those whose right it is to decide these matters prove me wrong, I have to trust those who gave this feedback, and my own feelings. I believe that we might see temples in both places at some point, but of the two, Tallahassee seems to be more likely in terms of the near future. It is the Lord's right to prove me wrong, but until then, I trust what my own study and these opinions have indicated.
Speaking of Honduras, that is why I have a temple for San Pedro Sula. Honduras seems ready for its second temple, and that city seems to be the top possibility. 99, you can upgrade temples for Missoula, Tooele, and Arkansas to more than a maybe. Tooele and Layton have widely been mentioned to me by several as being strong candidates for Utah's next temples. And I can tell you (as I have heard from people familiar with the areas) that there are sites set aside in Bentonville Arksansas and Missoula Montana for temples, that are being held in reserve until growth in the area and attendance at the temples from which attendance would be drawn warrant those announcements. Since I trust the reports of those who have experience in these areas, they are more than just "long shots."
I can also see smaller temples (akin to the size of the one planned for Winnipeg) being built to serve just one or two stakes, which opens the possibility for smaller temples in various parts of the world. And given that the past two years has seen second temples announced for two major world capitals (Manila Philippines and Lima Peru), it is not hard to believe that second temples may be announced in other cities where that is needed.
I also know that I have heard from many people that, in some cases, it may make more sense to expand and enlarge temples that were built as "smaller temples" (during particularly the Kimball and Hinckley eras) than it would to build new temples. As I indicated in an earlier comment, the goal of these smaller temples seemed to be to provide temples in closer proximity that could be expanded in the future as the need arose.
I just wanted to end this comment by noting that the Lord knows where He needs new temples to rise, and if the 85+ temples that will be announced in the next 15 years, anyway it is considered, it is clear that we are entering yet another unprecedented era of temple construction. And hopefully I can keep on top of reporting it all. For any who would like to read of some new developments which I have reported on my own blog, you can find a link below. Enjoy! Still trying to iron out the issue with people's ability to comment, but I hope to have it resolved before too long. Thanks!
http://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com
Yeah, I see where this is going. Quite a few active families have moved out of our ward to head east to Utah, Arizona etc, and some just abruptly stop coming. Not sure if this is normal but in our ward about 15-20% is active. Just two years ago, a busier ward was disbanded and the members were split between our ward and another and the church discarded that building. I'm not sure how many baptisms we have a year but last year the ward had maybe 3 so I'm guessing that's typical. Time will tell, so perhaps you're right. Maybe the Los Angeles temple doesn't need splitting because there's also Redlands and Newport Beach.
Another element in all of that is that there are many people in the Church (my wife and I being one example) who have health issues that presently limit our ability to attend fully. About three months ago, we were exhorted to faithfulness and to be more active in the Church, as if that alone would be enough to eliminate the challenges we are dealing with. Part of that was a misunderstanding and lack of compassion for our situation; another part I'm sure is that this part of the Lord's vineyard is full of people who are comparatively more wealthy and have not seemed to have any real challenges. Maybe part of why the Lord brought us here is that He knew our situation as it now is would be a challenge for the both the ward leadership and the members. We have heard from so many who think we've gone inactive of our own free will and choice. Were it not for limits to our functionality because of these health issues, we would likely be in a position to contribute to ward meetings more and we might be in a position to make a difference. For the moment, we proceed on faith, even as we are seemingly forgotten, neglected, overlooked, misunderstood, and underappreciated. Truly a learning experience for all. I also know that we have a large number of Primary children, few youth, and few active full-tithe paying Melchizedek Priesthood holders and Relief Society members. I have heard my parents speak of situations like this, but this is the first time I have witnessed it first-hand. The one thing evident in all of this is that the Lord is providing this experience for the growth of all concerned. He knows what He is doing. I take the rest on as much faith as I can muster.
Today at my ward the closing prayer in sacrament meeting was given by a sister originally from Chennai, India whose husvand also from Chennai is here in metro Detroit doing an internship while earning a PhD in mechanical engineering from BYU.
My fiancees daughter goes to youth conference tomorrow. They are going to Palmyra and will not be back till Friday. She made a friend with a white girl from Utah who is coming on the trip who wants to date a black boy. I havent figured out tge logistics of someone from Utah coming to our stakes youth conference.
I just read that so far this year 50% of refugees admitted to the,US have been Christians as opposed to 44% last year. The percentage for Muslims went from 46% to 38%. The number one country of origin for refugees in the US this year has been the DR Congo with over 3000 from that country.
California is a case of attrition and growth at the same time. With all the missions there (about 15-20?) there are thousands joining the Church every year, but there is a trend of ward and even stake consolidations. The Highland Stake that I attended for two years was fused in 2005, I think, and maybe a half dozen have disappeared since then.
This is the US's most populace state; it is on the forefront of many trends. But it does have a constant outflow of people throughout the nation and world. How many former California Saints live in the Intermountain West, Texas, and other US places? I will be interested to see when California finally achieves a million members. Could another US state (non-Utah) do this first?
Temples will continue to be built internationally at a strong pace. I wonder how much foreign temples depend on US economic tithes to build and maintain. Much of the growth of the faith can be attributed to financial issues like employment and GDP per capita. Cultural factors have a place, I think of Greece as an example of poor growth because of a combination of all of the above.
David, I am getting back to you on your comment about unit growth in Nicaragua. I did some study on that this week, and between the one new stake (created earlier this month) and the two districts upgraded to stakes (1 each last year and this year), Nicaragua's overall unit growth is more substantial than I originally registered. I apologize for overlooking/forgetting/not being aware of all of that. Thank you for your correction and clarifications. But if anything, that additional study and what I uncovered has only served to solidify my belief that a Nicaraguan temple is imminent. It may be among the 85+ that are set to be announced within the next 15 years, but I personally have had such a temple on my "list" since I got serious about temple site predictions and research about 2 years ago. One thing is certain: We are going to see quite an expansion of temple developments within the next 15-20 years, and for my part, I will try to stay on top of it all. Thanks again to you all for the intriguing and inspiring discussions.
And, just in case this blog has new readers that are not familiar with my work, I thought I would mention that I am a blogger myself. My focus has been on apostolic news and updates, General Conference predictions and news, general Church news items, and all current and potential future temple-related developments. Check it out!
http://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com
I would not be surprised is both Arizona and Idaho reach 1 million members before California.
Idaho is not yet halfway there (at 444,614 members as of year-end 2016), Arizona has 423,056 (also as of year end), and by the end of last year, California Church leaders reported 771,464 members. While Church growth within the US is stagnating, and while I do not have first-hand experience with or knowledge of what is going on with missionary efforts in any of those stakes, I find it hard to believe that both Arizona and Idaho will reach 1 million members before California does. Unless California members are exiting and moving into other states en masse (which is possible, as I have been seeing quite a few more California license plates here in Utah within the last seven years than I did in the 20-some-odd years previous; don't get me started on California drivers), I wonder why you think it will be otherwise. Can you clarify, please? No disrespect intended. I feel the numbers speak for themselves.
For California to reach 1 million LDS it will require constant conversions among the immigrant populations, especially Latinos. But there are significant numbers of others, including southeast Asians, east and south Asians, Africans, Pacific Islanders. The growth rate has been all right the last 20 years, but the out migration has been constant.
African-American growth needs to continue; I saw some of that in 1999-2000s, but I also some black converts struggle to stay active.
As well as many whites and Latinos.
That is why I have not been able to figure out why John stated above that both Arizona and Idaho might reach 1 million members prior to California. Growth is stagnating all over the US, except for within the "Mormon corridor" of Idaho, Arizona, and Utah. Even so, California has almost 800,000 members, while both Arizona and Idaho have barely half of that. So I don't know what the reasoning behind his statement was. It would be interesting to find out. The only thing I can think of is if missionary work in California is yielding more overall conversion and better retention. But I don't think such things can be measured well. It is an interesting prospect to consider, if nothing else.
In the meantime, with my thanks to Matt for allowing me to keep you all informed, I wanted to note that the problems with people not being able to comment on the posts to my blog has now been resolved completely. Anyone willing to read (and, if you feel so inclined, to comment) is more than welcome. Thanks.
http://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com
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