We also saw the Tomball Texas Stake created on May 21. Church growth in the major metro areas of Texas has been so impressive over the past 10 years or so.
Texas, Utah, and Arizona have been the mainstays of US Church growth in recent years, largely due to public policies favorable to job creation. California was for many years a leader in Church growth, but very high housing costs and burdensome governmental regulations have led to an exodus of Church members.
^What Ray said. California also is increasingly built on the two-income family model, which is in tension with church teachings (even though members should be respected for their prayerful choices on this matter).
Another consideration about Church growth in California is a high number of immigrants; while Texas and Arizona and Utah all have their share of lets say more Latino emigres, California receives more from East Asia and south Asia, the Middle East and Muslim countries where there are are fewer interactions with Christian dialogues and LDS peoples. I also blame the sick aspects of hip hop culture and economic stresses for church griwth in the Golden State. Just yesterday I was talking to another guy who was releaved to move away from California. I was there for 8 total years, and while there are tons of great members and 7 temples actively performing there, other places seem more prime for growth now
To show the extent of the growth in UT, AZ, and TX and the drop off in CA, since Jan 1, 2016,
AZ has increased by 13 stakes, or 13%, and + 39 W & B, or + 4.6% TX is up by 10 stakes, or + 15.6%, and + 29 W & B, or + 4.4% UT is up by 4 stakes, or + 0.7%, and + 58 W & B, or + 1.2%
CA is down by 1 stake, or - 0.6%, and - 51 W & B, or - 3.8%
The US has had an increase of 49 stakes, or + 3.16%,
and an increase of 74 W & B, or + 0.52%.
Stake growth has been much higher than congregational growth, perhaps due to a backlog of large stakes.
For the entire Church here is the record since Jan. 1, 2016:
An increase of 106 stakes and districts, or + 2.8%
An increase of 384 W & B, or + 1.3%
In addition there are close to a dozen districts and 100 W & B not included in the CDOL statistics because of the sensitive nature of reporting for certain nations.
Stake growth was faster than congregational growth in 2016, but congregational growth was higher from 2004 to 2015. In many ways, stakes were simply catching up with congregation in 2016. IIRC, percent growth from 2004 to 2016 was still less than percent congregation growth.
68500 missionaries currently serving. Does anybody remember the number before the surge? It seems like the missionary force keeps dropping numerically. http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865681342/?user=app
Re above post about growth of wards and branches, the totals do not include the large number of groups, which are not included in the CDOL.
They have insufficient leadership numbers and are usually attached to a nearby branch or ward. It would be great to know the approximate number of groups worldwide. A few years ago I heard there were over 20 in the Philippines alone.
Chapman, based on the numbers I've crunched given the birth rates in the late 1990s and early 2000s and the published seminary enrollment stats, we should continue to see a gradual reduction in Missionary numbers over the next few years. It should then start rising again in 2021. My projections show the the Missionary totals will rise above 70,000 again by the end of 2021 or the end of 2022, and they will rise above 80,000 again by the end of 2023.
Specifically, my projections are that it will range from 65,000 to 67,000 for 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 year end reports (with 2020 being the lowest point). Then a small jump at 2021 year end, followed by significantly larger jumps in the 2022 and 2023 year end reports. Then it will pretty much level off at or just above 80,000 from 2023 until around 2025. Then look for big jumps in 2026, 2027, and 2028, hopefully reaching 100,000 by then. Then leveling-off or modest gains through 2033. (Of course, all this assumes fairly consistent youth activity rates and no age policy changes.)
Maybe sister missionary rates have doubled since the age change? Maybe pre-2012 it was 12 percent and now 24 percent for sisters? Not sure if the upsurge has been that dramatic or not. Potentially my family could have a missionary in the field in 2020. We shall see.
Speaking of converts going on missions, what about a potential increases in full time missionaries from boom growth areas like Cote d'Ivoire or even newer growth spots like Mozambique or Kenya? Unlike more economically dynamic countries where most elders and sisters pay for their own costs, perhaps some of these nations will see many missionaries subsidized by faithful members and later take advantage of the Perpetual Education funds. The potential growth is large in this respect.
For the data to fit fairly closely to the most recent missionary numbers, I assumed an increase of the rate of sister missionaries from previously around 12-14% to now around 25-27%, and it seems to fit quite nicely. Chart: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y_MdJautkkxjnMyCzVmNMWDA-BifmkbmJBcH37oavmc/pubchart?oid=1040145117&format=interactive
Clarification: I don't mean that I assumed 25-27% of missionaries are sister missionaries. I meant that I assumed that 25-27% of qualified, active female members serve missions. But that could be way off. My whole point was that previous birth rates predict the current drop in missionaries serving, but we should see a rise in the 2020s.
Just a thought, I was with mission president last night and he said 35% of his missionaries are sisters in the Brisbane Australia Mission. He also said that recent conversations with GA he has had have said that this is getting close now to being the new norm across the church, 65% elders, 35% sisters.
Right, that's what I was hoping to clarify. If about 1 in every 4 eligible YW serves (~25%), and about 1 in every 2 eligible YM serves (~50%), then there would be twice as many Elders as Sisters, which would give you that about a third (~33%) of young missionaries are Sisters and two thirds (~67%) are Elders.
That is great news. Sisters are such a powerful force in the mission field. We need more of them. I also think the experience of a sister's mission will bless families and the church in general for decades to come, in the same way an Elder's mission does. Neat stuff.
The YM rate generally is following activity rates, not too much different comparatively to sacrament meeting averages, hoever that might be off due to a variety of factors.
26 comments:
We also saw the Tomball Texas Stake created on May 21. Church growth in the major metro areas of Texas has been so impressive over the past 10 years or so.
Texas, Utah, and Arizona have been the mainstays of US Church growth in recent years, largely due to public policies favorable to job creation. California was for many years a leader in Church growth, but very high housing costs and burdensome governmental regulations have led to an exodus of Church members.
^What Ray said. California also is increasingly built on the two-income family model, which is in tension with church teachings (even though members should be respected for their prayerful choices on this matter).
Another consideration about Church growth in California is a high number of immigrants; while Texas and Arizona and Utah all have their share of lets say more Latino emigres, California receives more from East Asia and south Asia, the Middle East and Muslim countries where there are are fewer interactions with Christian dialogues and LDS peoples.
I also blame the sick aspects of hip hop culture and economic stresses for church griwth in the Golden State.
Just yesterday I was talking to another guy who was releaved to move away from California. I was there for 8 total years, and while there are tons of great members and 7 temples actively performing there, other places seem more prime for growth now
To show the extent of the growth in UT, AZ, and TX and the drop off in CA, since Jan 1, 2016,
AZ has increased by 13 stakes, or 13%, and + 39 W & B, or + 4.6%
TX is up by 10 stakes, or + 15.6%, and + 29 W & B, or + 4.4%
UT is up by 4 stakes, or + 0.7%, and + 58 W & B, or + 1.2%
CA is down by 1 stake, or - 0.6%, and - 51 W & B, or - 3.8%
I just did the same analysis for West Africa, and since Jan. 1, 2016,
Cote d'Ivoire has had an increase of 10 stakes and districts, or + 71.4%
and an increase of 70 W & B, or + 53.8%
Ghana is up 5 stakes and districts, or + 19.2%, and up 46 W & B, + 18.9%
Nigeria is up 6 stakes and districts, or + 11.5%, and up 89 W & B, + 19.6%
Sierra Leone is up 2 districts (no increase in stakes yet), or up 33.3% in stakes and
districts, and up 14 W & B, or + 31.1%
Dozens of more stakes and districts are planned for West Africa by the end of 2017.
I can see Ghana reaching its 300 Ward and branch this year, and Nigeria reaching its 600th as well (that's if the pace continues or increases)
Ray, where is the US as a whole over that same time period?
Since Jan. 1, 2016,
The US has had an increase of 49 stakes, or + 3.16%,
and an increase of 74 W & B, or + 0.52%.
Stake growth has been much higher than congregational growth, perhaps due to a backlog of large stakes.
For the entire Church here is the record since Jan. 1, 2016:
An increase of 106 stakes and districts, or + 2.8%
An increase of 384 W & B, or + 1.3%
In addition there are close to a dozen districts and 100 W & B not included in the CDOL statistics because of the sensitive nature of reporting for certain nations.
Stake growth was faster than congregational growth in 2016, but congregational growth was higher from 2004 to 2015. In many ways, stakes were simply catching up with congregation in 2016. IIRC, percent growth from 2004 to 2016 was still less than percent congregation growth.
68500 missionaries currently serving. Does anybody remember the number before the surge? It seems like the missionary force keeps dropping numerically.
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865681342/?user=app
There were approximately 59,000 missionaries serving when the announcement was made in October 2012.
Re above post about growth of wards and branches, the totals do not include the large number of groups, which are not included in the CDOL.
They have insufficient leadership numbers and are usually attached to a nearby branch or ward. It would be great to know the approximate number of groups worldwide. A few years ago I heard there were over 20 in the Philippines alone.
Chapman, based on the numbers I've crunched given the birth rates in the late 1990s and early 2000s and the published seminary enrollment stats, we should continue to see a gradual reduction in Missionary numbers over the next few years. It should then start rising again in 2021. My projections show the the Missionary totals will rise above 70,000 again by the end of 2021 or the end of 2022, and they will rise above 80,000 again by the end of 2023.
Specifically, my projections are that it will range from 65,000 to 67,000 for 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 year end reports (with 2020 being the lowest point). Then a small jump at 2021 year end, followed by significantly larger jumps in the 2022 and 2023 year end reports. Then it will pretty much level off at or just above 80,000 from 2023 until around 2025. Then look for big jumps in 2026, 2027, and 2028, hopefully reaching 100,000 by then. Then leveling-off or modest gains through 2033. (Of course, all this assumes fairly consistent youth activity rates and no age policy changes.)
I would like to see number trends for sister missionaies specifically. How do they compare today with pre-age lowering announcement?
Maybe sister missionary rates have doubled since the age change? Maybe pre-2012 it was 12 percent and now 24 percent for sisters? Not sure if the upsurge has been that dramatic or not.
Potentially my family could have a missionary in the field in 2020. We shall see.
Several of the missionaries in my mission were adult converts so seminary figures do not cover all missionaries.
Speaking of converts going on missions, what about a potential increases in full time missionaries from boom growth areas like Cote d'Ivoire or even newer growth spots like Mozambique or Kenya? Unlike more economically dynamic countries where most elders and sisters pay for their own costs, perhaps some of these nations will see many missionaries subsidized by faithful members and later take advantage of the Perpetual Education funds. The potential growth is large in this respect.
For the data to fit fairly closely to the most recent missionary numbers, I assumed an increase of the rate of sister missionaries from previously around 12-14% to now around 25-27%, and it seems to fit quite nicely. Chart: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y_MdJautkkxjnMyCzVmNMWDA-BifmkbmJBcH37oavmc/pubchart?oid=1040145117&format=interactive
Clarification: I don't mean that I assumed 25-27% of missionaries are sister missionaries. I meant that I assumed that 25-27% of qualified, active female members serve missions. But that could be way off. My whole point was that previous birth rates predict the current drop in missionaries serving, but we should see a rise in the 2020s.
Just a thought, I was with mission president last night and he said 35% of his missionaries are sisters in the Brisbane Australia Mission. He also said that recent conversations with GA he has had have said that this is getting close now to being the new norm across the church, 65% elders, 35% sisters.
The Church just organized a branch in the city of Wa in Ghana. This is the furthest north west branch in the country.
Right, that's what I was hoping to clarify. If about 1 in every 4 eligible YW serves (~25%), and about 1 in every 2 eligible YM serves (~50%), then there would be twice as many Elders as Sisters, which would give you that about a third (~33%) of young missionaries are Sisters and two thirds (~67%) are Elders.
That is great news. Sisters are such a powerful force in the mission field. We need more of them. I also think the experience of a sister's mission will bless families and the church in general for decades to come, in the same way an Elder's mission does. Neat stuff.
The YM rate generally is following activity rates, not too much different comparatively to sacrament meeting averages, hoever that might be off due to a variety of factors.
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