This post is a general analysis of the Church's announcement earlier this week to create 36 new missions in July 2024. I will provide an overall assessment of this development and its significance and ramifications rather than go through a mission-by-mission analysis for each of the new missions (which I will put together in the coming weeks in multiple posts similar to recent new temple announcement analyses).
A Correlation between Children of Record and Number of Full-time Missionaries Serving?
First, I have been informed of claims on social media that attribute the current surge in the number of full-time missionaries serving to a bump in children of record increase from 20 years ago, and that this current increase is therefore unsurprising, predictable, and actually less impressive than what it should be given children of record numbers two decades ago. There are many problems with making this argument in regard to the assumptions made. Children of record are not all retained into adulthood, with a portion who are never baptized at age 8 who are subsequently removed from church membership figures. Moreover, there are many child and youth converts who join the Church at an age when they are not included in the annual children of record increase metric. Additionally, rates of missionary service may vary for those added to church records prior to age 8 and are later baptized versus those who have joined the Church as a youth convert (historically, the Church has done very well with youth converts serving full-time missions). Furthermore, not all members who serve missions serve missions at the same age, and the minimum age for missionary service was revised from 19 to 18 for men and 21 to 19 for women in 2012. Finally, rates of full-time missionary service have also varied over time by gender, with increasing numbers of women serving full-time missions in the past decade.
Graph 1 below displays annual numbers of full-time missionaries serving from 1977 to 2023 (rounded to 73,000 as Elder Cook reported 72,721 full-time missionaries serving as of November 1st, 2023) as well as increase in children of record (2023 is not included as there are no current estimates available for the year).
Graph 1
There is general little correlation between the two graphs when comparing these metrics over time, although there are some periods when both metrics increase and decrease together (note the COVID-19 pandemic in the early 2020s, as well as a decline in both the number of missionaries serving and increase in children of record in the late 2010s). However, there would be a lag of approximately two decades for when most of those born into the Church would serve full-time missions. See Graph 2 which illustrates how children of record increase compares to the number of full-time missionaries serving 20 years later.
Graph 2
Again, there is little correlation between these metrics even when children of record increase is paired with the number of full-time missionaries serving 20 years later. Graph 3 presents the percentage of children of record serving full-time missions 20 years later.
Graph 3
This metric, again something to be very cautiously considered given the major assumptions made which have significant problems to make this very useful or accurate, has actually increased over time from approximately 55-60% in the late 1990s/early 2000s to 75-80% in the early 2020s. Therefore, the argument that the current surge in full-time missionaries serving is due to an increase in children of record two decades ago is not supported when considering the data available.
Geostatistical Comparison of the 58 New Missions Announced in 2013 versus the 36 New Missions Announced for 2024
There is only one year that has come remotely close to 2024 for the number of new missions organized in a single year, which was 2013 when 58 new missions were organized to accommodate tens of thousands more full-time missionaries serving that began as a result of the "double cohort" from those planning to serve missions at the previous minimum age for missionary service and those who decided to begin serving a full-time mission earlier because of the announcement.
In 2013, I published an analysis on cumorah.com regarding the 58 new missions to be created that summer. Church leaders reported that the creation of the 58 new missions was a permanent change, and not a temporary one just to meet demand for the influx in members serving missions. This was supported with the number of missions within the following decade. The Church reported 405 missions as of year-end 2013, and the number of missions fluctuated between 399 and 421 during the next decade. To quote from this analysis, I stated:
Of the 58 missions to be created in July 2013, 17 are in North America (Arizona Gilbert, Arizona Scottsdale, California Bakersfield, California Irvine, California Rancho Cucamonga, Colorado Fort Collins, Georgia Macon, Idaho Nampa, Idaho Twin Falls, Illinois Chicago West, Kansas Wichita, Ohio Cincinnati, Oregon Salem, Utah Salt Lake City East, Virginia Chesapeake, Washington Federal Way, Washington Vancouver), 15 are in South America (Argentina Comodoro Rivadavia, Argentina Posadas, Bolivia Santa Cruz North, Brazil Curitiba South, Brazil Fortaleza East, Brazil Juiz de Fora, Brazil Natal, Brazil Piracicaba, Brazil Santos, Brazil Sao Paulo West, Chile Santiago South, Ecuador Guayaquil West, Ecuador Quito North, Peru Huancayo, Peru Iquitos), 11 are in Central America (El Salvador San Salvador East, Guatemala Coban, Honduras San Pedro Sula West, Mexico Cancun, Mexico Ciudad Juarez, Mexico Ciudad Obregon, Mexico Mexico City Chalco, Mexico Pachuca, Mexico Queretaro, Mexico Reynosa, Mexico Saltillo), six are in East Asia (Japan Tokyo South, Korea Seoul South, Philippines Cavite, Philippines Cebu East, Philippines Legaspi, Philippines Urdaneta), five are in Africa (Angola Luanda, Botswana Gaborone, Ghana Accra West, Liberia Monrovia, Nigeria Benin City), three are in Oceania (Australia Sydney North, New Zealand Hamilton, Papua New Guinea Lae), and one is in Europe (Ukraine L'viv). New missions in North, Central, and South America account for 74% of all new missions to be created in 2013 notwithstanding 83.6% of world church membership and approximately 15% of the world population residing in the Americas. Three of the 58 missions will be the first missions to be headquartered within a particular country (Angola Luanda, Botswana Gaborone, and Liberia Monrovia). The four countries with the most new missions to be organized are the United States (17), Mexico (8), Brazil (7), and the Philippines (4).
As for the 36 new missions to be organized in 2024, 10 are in North America (California Modesto, Florida Tallahassee, Montana Missoula, Nevada Henderson, South Carolina Charleston, Texas Dallas South, Texas El Paso, Utah Salt Lake City East, Utah Saratoga Springs, Utah Spanish Fork), nine are in Sub-Saharan Africa (DR Congo Kinshasa South, DR Congo Kolwezi, Ghana Accra North, Ghana Takoradi, Kenya Nairobi East, Madagascar Antananarivo North, Nigeria Calabar, Nigeria Port Harcourt North, Sierra Leone Bo), six are in Asia (Cambodia Phnom Penh East, Japan Sendai, Philippines Dumaguete, Philippines General Santos, Philippines Tuguegarao, Thailand Bangkok East), six are in South America (Argentina Tucumán, Bolivia Cochabamba South, Brazil Manaus South, Chile La Serena, Ecuador Quito West, Perú Lima Northeast), two are in Central America (México Mexicali, México Puebla East), two are in Europe (Germany Hamburg, Portugal Porto), and one is in the Caribbean (Dominican Republic Santo Domingo North). New missions in North, Central, and South America account for 50% of the new missions to be organized in 2024. Six (6) countries will have more than one new mission organized in 2024, including the United States (10), Philippines (3), the DR Congo (2), Ghana (2), Mexico (2), and Nigeria (2). Once these changes go into effect in July 2024, the countries with the most missions will include the United States (120), Brazil (37), Mexico (34), the Philippines (26), Peru (15), Argentina (14), Chile (11), and Nigeria (11).
Noteworthy Characteristics of the 36 New Missions to be Organized in 2024
Here are some characteristics of the 36 new missions to be organized that are noteworthy to mention.
- New missions to be created in 2024 are more equal geographically distributed than the missions created in 2013.
- No missions are located in countries that do not already have a mission.
- Six countries will receive their second mission (Cambodia, Kenya, Madagascar, Portugal, Sierra Leone, Thailand).
- Six missions will be reinstated missions that previously closed (California Modesto, Florida Tallahassee, Germany Hamburg, Japan Sendai, Portugal Porto, Utah Salt Lake City East).
- 2024 will be the year with most new missions ever organized in Africa in one year.
- One new mission is in a city where a mission used to be headquartered but the mission was relocated elsewhere (Nigeria Calabar).
- No missions are planned to be discontinued.
- No new missions are planned for Oceania.
- All of the new missions have at least one stake (indicating plans with these new missions are to expand into lesser-reached areas with a base in active members and not venture into areas with little-to-no Church presence).
- Plans for the three new Utah missions call for at least one missionary companionship assigned per stake in Utah - something that has never previous occurred.
Other Reactions to the New Missions Announcement
Finally, here are some other reactions to this announcement.
- I was most surprised about the following missions: Cambodia Phnom Penh East, DR Congo Kolwezi, México Mexicali, Philippines Dumaguete, and South Carolina Charleston. The reason why is because they are in locations with a relatively small Church presence and/or have historically experienced slow growth within recent years.
- The new mission announcements that I believe were the most overdue were Brazil Manaus South, Portugal Porto, Sierra Leone Bo, and Thailand Bangkok East. These missions are located in areas that have missions with a major administrative burden because of large geographical areas, large numbers of congregations, and/or rapid growth.
- Locations where I was most disappointed that no new missions are planned to be organized include (in order) Togo Lome, Liberia Monrovia (second mission), Burundi Bujumbura, Senegal Dakar, Cuba Havana, Malawi Lilongwe, Brazil São LuÃs, Spain Granada, and Solomon Islands Honiara. These are locations where there is a major need for missions to be created to take advantage of greater opportunities for growth.
- New missions that I foresee as having the greatest likelihood to accelerate growth in the area where the operate include Brazil Manaus South, the two new DR Congo missions, Madagascar Antananarivo North, the two new Nigerian missions, and Sierra Leone Bo.
- There may be a possibility of additional missions to be organized in 2024 that have not been announced yet pending where missionary numbers are at in early 2024 and evolving opportunities for growth.
