March 2023 Monthly Newsletter

 Click here to access the March 2023 monthly newsletter for cumorah.com.

New Temples Announced in April 2023 - Part I: Latin America

Retalhuleu Guatemala Temple

The Retalhuleu Guatemala Temple is the Church's sixth temple announced for Guatemala following temples in Guatemala City (dedicated in 1984), Quetzaltenango (dedicated in 2011), Cobán (announced in 2019), Miraflores Guatemala City (announced in 2020), and Huehuetenango (announced in October 2022). Retalhuleu was added to the Potential New Temples map in February 2023. The new temple will likely service five stakes and one district, and one stake (Mazatenango) appears likely to divide in the near future as there are 11 wards and 2 branches in this stake (a second stake used to operate in Mazatenango from 1998 to 2008). Stakes in the area have experienced stagnant congregational growth with no appreciable numbers of new congregations being created or congregations being closed. The new temple will likely be a small temple given there are few stakes in the area. The Church created the Guatemala Retalhuleu Mission in 2010. The most recently organized stake in the likely new temple district was created in 1999 in Retalhuleu. The first stake in Retalhuleu was organized in 1980. Stakes in the Retalhuleu area are currently assigned to the Quetzaltenango Guatemala Temple (dedicated in 2011) which is a 90-minute drive from Retalhuleu. The Church reported 287,000 members in Guatemala as of year-end 2022.

Iquitos Peru Temple

Iquitos has been a location that has long been on the Potential New Temples map due to its remote location and three stakes in the city. The Iquitos Peru Temple is the Church's seventh temple in Peru following temples in Lima (dedicated in 1986), Trujillo (dedicated in 2015), Lima Los Olivos (announced in 2016), Arequipa (dedicated in 2019), Cusco (announced in April 2022), and Chiclayo (announced in October 2022). The new temple will likely service at least the three stakes in Iquitos which were organized in 1980, 1992, and 1995. Slow growth has occurred in the Peruvian Amazon in recent years, although two districts have advanced into stakes within the past several years. New congregations have been organized in recent years in Iquitos and Pucallpa. The Church used to operate two additional stakes in Iquitos (organized in 1985 and 1995) that were both discontinued in 1998. Currently, one of the stakes in Iquitos (Iquitos Peru Nueve de Octubre) appears likely to divide as there are 10 wards and 1 branch in the stake. It is also possible the new temple may service the two stakes up the Ucayali River in the city of Pucallpa and a stake and a district in San Martin Region. The Church created the Peru Iquitos Mission in 2013. Stakes in the Peruvian Amazon are currently assigned to the Lima Peru Temple. The Church reported 630,000 members in Peru as of year-end 2022.

Teresina Brazil Temple

The Teresina Brazil Temple is the Church's 19th temple in Brazil following temples in São Paulo (dedicated in 1978), Recife (dedicated in 2000), Porto Alegre (dedicated in 2000), Campinas (dedicated in 2002), Curitiba (dedicated in 2008), Manaus (dedicated in 2012), Fortaleza (dedicated in 2019), Rio de Janeiro (dedicated in 2022), Belem (dedicated in 2022), Brasília (announced in 2017, dedication scheduled for September 2023), Salvador (announced in 2018), São Paulo Brazil East (announced in 2020), Belo Horizonte (announced in April 2021), Vitória (announced in October 2021), Maceió (announced in April 2022), Santos (announced in April 2022), Londrina (announced in October 2022), and Riberão Prêto (announced in October 2022). The new temple will likely service seven stakes and two districts in the Brazilian states of Maranhão and Piauí. Steady growth has occurred in Teresina where the first stake was organized in 1993 followed by additional stakes organized in 2005 and 2016. Stakes in Teresina are currently assigned to the Fortaleza Brazil Temple which is an 8-hour drive one way, whereas stakes in Maranhão are assigned to the Belem Brazil Temple. The Church has regularly organized new congregations in Maranhão and Piauí. The Church organized the Brazil Teresina Mission in 2009. The Church reported nearly 1.5 million members in Brazil as of year-end 2022.

Natal Brazil Temple

The Natal Brazil Temple is the Church's 20th temple in Brazil. The announcement of the new temple marks the third time in Church history in Brazil when two temples were announced on the same day (the other such instances occurred in April 2022 and October 2022). The new temple will likely service the six stakes and one district in Rio Grande do Norte State. The Church has four stakes in Natal which were organized in 1992, 1998, and 2006 (2). The Church has had fluctuating growth rates in Rio Grande do Norte State during the past couple days, as some years have had rapid growth, whereas the Church has experienced slow or stagnant growth for other years. Stakes in Rio Grande do Norte are currently assigned to the Recife Brazil Temple except for the Mossoró Brazil Stake which is assigned to the Fortaleza Brazil Temple. The Brazil Natal Mission was organized in 2013.

15 New Temples Announced

Today, President Russell M. Nelson announced plans to construct new temples in 15 cities. These cities include:

• Retalhuleu, Guatemala
• Iquitos, Peru
• Teresina, Brazil
• Natal, Brazil
• Tuguegarao City, Philippines
• Iloilo, Philippines
• Jakarta, Indonesia
• Hamburg, Germany
• Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada
• San Jose, California
• Bakersfield, California
• Springfield, Missouri
• Winchester, Virginia
• Charlotte, North Carolina
• Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

With today's announcement, there are now 315 temples that are planned, under construction, or dedicated in the Church.

In the coming days, I will provide additional posts that conduct an analysis of each new temple announced.

2022 Statisical Report

This afternoon, the Church reported its annual statistical report as of December 31st, 2022.

• Membership: 17,002,461 (increase of 197,061 from 2021; a 1.17% annual increase)
• Congregations: 31,330 (increase of 15 from 2021; a 0.048% annual increase)
• Stakes: 3,521 (increase of 23 from 2021; a 0.66% annual increase)
• Districts: 517 (decrease of 3 from 2021; a 0.58% annual decrease)
• Missions: 411 (increase of 4 from 2020; a 0.98% annual increase)
• Convert Baptisms: 212,172 (increase of 43,889 from 2021; a 26.1% annual increase)
• Increase of Children on Record: 89,059 (decrease of 10 from 2021; a 0.01% annual decrease)
• Full-time missionaries: 62,544 (increase of 8,005 from 2021; a 14.7% annual increase)
• Church service missionaries: 29,806 (decrease of 6,833 from 2021; a 18.6% annual decrease)

For the first time, the Church has broken down church service missionaries from young church-service missionaries and senior church-service missionaries. The number of young church-service missionaries was 2,736, whereas the number of senior church-service missionaries was 27,070. 

Several observations with the 2022 Statistical Report.

First, the annual membership growth rate exceed 1% for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Church membership increased by 1.17% during 2022 which was only 0.04% less that the Church's annual membership growth rate in 2018. Thus, annual membership growth rates have returned to the approximate rates seen during the few years prior to the pandemic, although this still remains slightly lower than pre-COVID levels as annual membership growth rates were 1.54% in 2019 1.48% in 2017. Also, the discrepancy in the summation of converts baptized and children under age 8 added to church records and actual net increase in church membership was 104,170 - a typical number for this statistic during the past 10 years. This statistic indicates that the number of deaths, excommunications (loss of membership), resignations, and removal of unbaptized children of record ages 9 and older has remained static during the past 10 years despite church membership increasing from 14.8 million to 17.0 million.

Second, there was a large increase in convert baptisms in 2022 relative to the years 2021 and 2022. The year 2022 was the first time the number of converts baptized exceeded 200,000 since 2019 when there were 248,835 converts baptized. The difference between the number of convert baptisms in 2022 and the number of convert baptisms in 2021 was 43,889 - a slightly larger number than the difference in convert baptisms in 2021 versus the number of convert baptisms in 2020 which was 42,353. The annual number of convert baptisms in 2022 (212,172) has nearly recovered to pre-COVID levels, although the lowest year for the number of convert baptisms (2017) was still nearly 20,000 more than what was seen in 2022.

Third, the annual increase in children of record (i.e., the number of children added to church records who are too young to be baptized - usually a measurement of infants born and blessed during the year) was essentially unchanged for the year 2022 compared to 2021. The Church experienced a significant decrease in this statistic prior the COVID-19 pandemic which dropped from 122,273 in 2012 to 94,266 in 2019. A mere 65,440 children under age 8 were added to church records in 2020 - a statistic that appears attributed to fewer births during the year and members postponing baby blessings when these records are oftentimes created. The encouraging aspect of the 2022 figure for the increase in children of record is that this number has stabilized since the COVID-19 pandemic, and that the figure for 2021 was not artificially higher due to postponed baby blessings which would have likely occurred in 2020 if there were no restrictions associated with the pandemic (in other words - seems unlikely the 2022 figure may be higher due to postponed baby blessings that should have occurred in 2020 or 2021 since there were few or no church meeting/health restrictions for most areas of the world during 2022 and for a good part of 2021 that would result in most members delaying baby blessings). 

Fourth, there was a significant increase in the number of full-time missionaries serving in 2022 (62,544) compared to 2021 (54,539) or 2020 (51,819). The Church reported 58,990 full-time missionaries at year-end 2012 which was a few months after the Church officially lowered its minimum age for full-time missionary service from 19 to 18 for men and 21 to 19 for women. Because of this change, there was a double-cohort of missionaries serving (i.e., those who planned to serve at the original previous minimum ages, those who decided to serve earlier than planned with the revised minimum age, those who decided to serve a mission when the minimum age was announced but who were not previously considering missionary service). As a result, the number of full-time missionaries mushroomed to an all-time annual high of 85,147 in 2014, but this statistic returned to a low of 65,137 in 2018. As of year-end 2019, the Church reported 67,021 full-time missionaries serving. Although the number of full-time missionaries serving remains below pre-COVID level in the late 2010s of approximately 65,000-70,000, the number of full-time missionaries is approaching these levels at an accelerated pace compared to 2021. 

Fifth, the Church reported an unusually low year for both the growth in the number of stakes and official congregations (i.e., wards and branches). The net increase in the number of wards and branches was a mere 15 for 2022 - the lowest net increase in wards and branches seen since 1953 when there was a net decline of 35 wards and branches. Years with unusually small net increases in wards and branches are not atypical in the present-day Church. For example, there was a net increase of a mere 30 wards and branches in 2018, and there was a net increase of 59 wards and branches in 2002. These years have been associated with a combination of significant congregation consolidations in one of more countries with a major church presence and few new congregations being created. In 2022, there was an unusually large number of wards that were discontinued in the United States, whereas there were relatively few new congregations created elsewhere in the world. Reports from members in many countries where high numbers of new congregations are usually created have indicated that there was often an emphasis on strengthening wards and branches, and that some congregations have not returned to pre-COVID levels in terms of church attendance (particularly in West Africa where many members have joined in the Church in the past 5-10 years). The abnormally low year in 2018 was primarily due to widespread congregation consolidations in Mexico, whereas the abnormally low year in 2002 was primarily due to widespread congregation consolidations in Latin America such as Chile. The net increase in the number of stakes in 2022 (23) was the lowest seen since 2003 when there was a net increase of 22 stakes. Relatively few new stakes have been organized since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, including a net increase of only 26 stakes in 2020 and 35 stakes in 2021. It has been common for stake creations to have almost a cyclical pattern of 3-6 years of more rapid growth followed by 3-6 years of slower growth. 

Trends in mission and district growth were unremarkable for 2022. 

Finally, there was a significant decline (18.6%) in the number of church-service missionaries in 2022 - 92% of whom were senior missionaries. I am not sure why this statistic declined so significantly in 2022, but this is a metric that often has much variability. Typically, the number of church-service missionaries has vacillated between 30,000 and 36,000 since 2014.

Likely New Missions to be Created - March 2023 Edition

See below for a list of likely locations to have new missions announced in the foreseeable future:

AFRICA

• Cote d'Ivoire Daloa (1 stake, 6 districts) 
• Democratic Republic of the Congo Likasi (3 stakes)
  
• Democratic Republic of the Congo Kinshasa (third mission) (4 stakes)
  
• Gabon Libreville (4 mission branches)
  
• Ghana Accra (third mission) (4-5 stakes)
  
• Ghana Koforidua (3 stakes, 2 districts)
  
• Ghana Kumasi (second mission) (2-3 stakes, 2-3 districts)
  
• Ghana Takoradi (2 stakes, 2 districts) 
• Kenya (second mission - in Eldoret or second in Nairobi) (1-2 stakes, 3-4 districts)
  
• Liberia Monrovia (second mission) (3 stakes)
  
• Malawi Lilongwe (2 districts) 
• Nigeria Benin City (second mission) (4-5 stakes)
• Nigeria Calabar (4 stakes, 1 district)
• Nigeria Eket (6 stakes)
  
• Nigeria Lagos (second mission) (4 stakes)
  
• Nigeria Warri (3 stakes, 3 districts)
• Senegal Dakar (1 district, several mission branches in neighboring countries)
  
• Sierra Leone Bo (4 stakes, 1 district) 
• Togo Lome (2 stakes)

ASIA 

• Middle East/African North Service Mission (2 stakes, 3 districts) 
• Philippines General Santos (3 stakes, 3 districts)
  
• Philippines Ormoc (3 stakes, 4 districts)
  
• Philippines Palawan/Mindoro (1 stake, 4 districts)
  
• Philippines Tuguegarao (3 stakes, 2 districts) 
• Sri Lanka Colombo (1 district)
  
• Thailand Ubon (1 stake, 1 district)

EUROPE

• Ireland Dublin (2 stakes, 1 district)
  
• Portugal Porto (3 stakes)
  

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

• Brazil Manaus (~6 stakes)
• Brazil São Luís (2 stakes)
• Brazil São Paulo (sixth mission) (4-5 million, ~7 stakes)
• Brazil Sorocaba (5 stakes, 2 districts)
• Cuba Havana (1 district)
  

OCEANIA

• Australia Brisbane (second mission) (~6 stakes)
  
• Australia Sydney (second mission) (~6 stakes)
• French Polynesia (second mission) (~5 stakes) 
• Kiribati Tarawa (2 stakes, 3 districts)
  
• Papua New Guinea Daru (1 stake, 3 districts)
  
• Samoa (second mission) (~12 stakes)
  
• Solomon Islands Honiara (1 district)

February 2023 Newsletter

I apologize I forgot to post this on the blog. Click here to access the February 2023 monthly newsletter for cumorah.com.

New Stakes Created in Arizona, Ecuador, Kenya, Nevada, Peru, the Philippines, and South Africa

Arizona

A new stake was created in Arizona. The Queen Creek Arizona Empire Stake was organized from a division of the Queen Creek Arizona East Stake and the Queen Creek Arizona South Stake. The new stake includes the following six wards: the Circle Cross, Gary, Paisley Park, Sierra Vista, Skyline, and Sunet Wards. There are now 10 stakes in the Queen Creek area. 

There are now 117 stakes in Arizona.

Ecuador

The Church organized a new stake in Guayaquil. The Guayaquil Ecuador Alborada Stake was organized from a division of the Guayaquil Ecuador Kennedy Stake and the Guayaquil Ecuador Las Orquideas Stake. The new stake includes the following five wards: the Francisco de Orellana,  Guayacanes, Isidro Ayora, José María Egas, and Los Sauces Wards. There are now 18 stakes in the Guayaquil metropolitan area.

There are now 43 stakes and 5 districts in Ecuador

Kenya

A new stake was created in Kenya. The Nairobi Kenya South Stake was created from a division of the Nairobi Kenya East Stake and the Nairobi Kenya West Stake. The new stake includes the following four wards and three branches: the Athi River, Nairobi 1st, Nairobi 2nd, and South B Wards, and the Kitengela, Mlolongo, and Ruai Branches. The new stake is the third stake to be organized in Kenya. All three stakes are headquartered in Nairobi. The first stake in Nairobi was created in 2011 and the second stake was created in 2016. There are also six districts in Kenya.

Nevada

The Church organized a new stake in Nevada on January 15th. The Mesquite Nevada West Stake was organized from a division of the Mesquite Nevada Stake (organized in 1994). The new stake includes the following six wards and one branch: the Anthem (Retirement), Arrowhead, Bunkerville 1st, Bunkerville 2nd, Heritage, and Willows Ward, and the Virgin Valley (Spanish) Branch. 

There are now 43 stakes in Nevada.

Peru

A new stake was created in Peru. The Pucallpa Perú Centenario Stake was organized from a division of the Pucallpa Perú Stake (organized in 1993). The new stake include the following five wards: the Bolognesi, Centenario, Primavera, Sáenz Peña, and Ucayali Wards, and the Campo Verde Branch. The new stake is the Church's second stake in the city of Pucallpa - the most populous city in remote Ucayali Department.

There are now 113 stakes and 17 districts in Peru.

The Philippines

The Church organized a new stake in the Philippines. The Iloilo Philippines Central Stake was organized from a division of the Iloilo Philippines North Stake (organized in 1997). The new stake includes the following six wards: the Jaro 1st, Jaro 2nd, Lapaz, Lapuz, Leganes 1st, and Pavia Wards. There are now three stakes in Iloilo City.

There are now 126 stakes and 55 districts in the Philippines.

South Africa 

The Church organized a new stake in South Africa. The Johannesburg South Africa South Stake was organized from a division of the Johannesburg South Africa Stake, Soweto South Africa Stake, and the Vaal South Africa District (which still operates with three branches now). The new stake includes the following five wards and two branches: the Florida 1st, Florida 2nd, Randburg, Ridgeway, and Sebokeng Wards, and the Ennerdale and Orange Farm Branches. There are now 10 stakes and 1 district in the Johannesburg metropolitan area.

There are now 18 stakes and 10 districts in South Africa.

New Temple Predictions - February 2023 Edition

I have updated my temple prediction map in preparation for General Conference in April. The size of the Church in a specific geographical area (i.e. number of stakes and districts, the number of wards and branches), the age of the oldest stake in a specific geographical area, church growth trends, the distance to the nearest temple, the square-footage of the nearest temple, the historical number of weekly endowment sessions scheduled at the nearest temple, and member and missionary reports regarding member activity, temple attendance, and convert retention are variables used to identify prospective sites for future temple announcements. Also, I have considered traffic and transportation concerns with adding new temple locations to the map. My goal this time was to include all possible locations where temples may be announced considering the characteristics of locations where temples have been recently announced. Altogether, there are 217 potential temples on the map (20 more likely temples, 197 less likely temples) - 54 more locations than included on the map in September 2022. The following 66 locations have been added to the temples prediction map with this current update - all of which are less likely temples:

• Aguascalientes Mexico Temple
• Appleton Wisconsin Temple
• Aracaju Brazil Temple
• Arlington Washington Temple
• Beaumont Texas Temple
• Beaver Utah Temple
• Blackfoot Idaho Temple
• Broomfield Colorado Temple
• Caldwell Idaho Temple
• Cardiff Wales Temple
• Castle Dale Utah Temple
• Chalco Mexico Temple
• Ciudad Obregón Mexico Temple
• Coatzacoalcos Mexico Temple
• Concord New Hampshire Temple
• Cottonwood Heights/Holladay/Sandy Utah Temple
• Daru Papua New Guinea Temple
• Durango Mexico Temple
• Goodyear Arizona Temple
• Grace Idaho Temple
• Greenville South Carolina Temple
• Hamburg Germany Temple
• Harrisburg Pennsylvania Temple
• Hurricane Utah Temple
• Iowa City Iowa Temple
• Juchitán Mexico Temple
• Kanab Utah Temple
• La Ceiba Honduras Temple
• La Plata Argentina Temple
• Lethbridge Alberta Temple
• Likasi Democratic Republic of the Congo Temple
• Mar del Plata Argentina Temple
• Mbuji-Mayi Democratic Republic of the Congo Temple
• Morgan Utah Temple
• Moscow Idaho Temple
• Nealticán Mexico Temple
• Nephi Utah Temple
• Norfolk Virginia Temple
• North Lima Peru Temple
• North London England Temple
• North Ogden Utah Temple
• Ontario Oregon Temple
• Paducah Kentucky Temple
• Preston Idaho Temple
• Quezon City Philippines Temple
• Retalhuleu Guatemala Temple
• Roosevelt Utah Temple
• São Luís Brazil Temple
• São Paulo Brazil South Temple
• San Juan Argentina Temple
• San Miguel de Tucumán Argentina Temple
• Santa Fe Argentina Temple
• Scotch Plains New Jersey Temple
• South Houston Texas Temple
• Southern Santiago Chile Temple
• Springfield Missouri Temple
• Sucre Bolivia Temple
• Sunderland England Temple
• Taichung Taiwan Temple
• Tapachula Mexico Temple
• Temecula California Temple
• Temuco Chile Temple
• Uberlândia Brazil Temple
• Vancouver Washington Temple
• Xalapa Mexico Temple
• Yakima Washington Temple

With this update, no temples were transferred from the less likely to be announced to the more likely to be announced category or vice versa. 

The following 10 locations appear most likely to have temples announced this coming General Conference. As always, your prediction lists are welcome and encouraged. 

1. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
2. Spanish Fork, Utah 
3. Charlotte, North Carolina
4. Angeles or Olongapo, Philippines 
5. Colorado Springs, Colorado 
6. Kampala, Uganda
7. Iquitos, Peru 
8. São José, Brazil
9. Viña del Mar, Chile 
10. João Pessoa, Brazil
    

See below for the map of likely and less likely new temple sites:

January 2023 Newsletter

Click here to access the January 2023 monthly newsletter for cumorah.com.

Top Ten Most Encouraging and Top Ten Most Discouraging Growth and Missionary Developments for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in 2022

Click here to access the article, the Top Ten Most Encouraging and Top Ten Most Discouraging Growth and Missionary Developments for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in 2022, posted today on cumorah.com.