Thursday, April 18, 2024

Updating Country Statistical Profiles on Cumorah.com

I will be updating the country profiles on cumorah.com in the coming weeks. Click here to access the updated profile for Angola with statistics through 2023.

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

UPDATED: List of the Countries with the Most Members without a Stake - April 2024 Edition

Below is an updated list of the countries with the most Latter-day Saints without a stake. Membership totals are as of 2023 and congregational and district totals are current. Estimated membership for mainland China and Pakistan is provided as official statistics are unavailable. The number of branches in mainland China is not provided due to the sensitive nature of the Church in that country. Previous lists of the countries with the most members without a stake can be found here.

  1. China - 12,500 members? - 12 districts
  2. Malaysia - 11,086 members - 24 branches - 5 districts
  3. Guyana - 6,834 members - 12 branches - 2 districts
  4. Pakistan - 6,000 members? - 15 branches, 4 districts
  5. Belize - 5,631 members - 12 branches - 2 districts
  6. Malawi - 4,776 members - 13 branches - 2 districts
  7. Tanzania - 3,969 members - 27 branches - 4 districts
  8. Armenia - 3,572 members - 7 branches - 1 district
  9. Romania - 3,103 members - 15 branches - 1 district
  10. Cameroon - 3,071 members - 16 branches - 2 districts
  11. Bulgaria - 2,414 members - 7 branches - 1 district
  12. Eswatini - 2,253 members - 6 branches - 1 district
  13. Ethiopia - 2,193 members - 8 branches - 1 district
  14. Poland - 2,178 members - 11 branches - 1 district
  15. Cook Islands - 1,888 members - 5 branches - 1 district
  16. Suriname - 1,848 members - 6 branches - 1 district
  17. Sri Lanka - 1,674 members - 5 branches - 1 district
  18. Lesotho - 1,562 members - 6 branches - 1 district 
  19. Burundi - 1,541 members - 6 branches - 1 district
  20. Rwanda - 1,537 members - 9 branches -1  district

As noted in the list from 2023, prospects appear most favorable for the formation of stakes within the next few years in mainland China, Malaysia, Guyana, Belize, Pakistan, Eswatini, and Cameroon as all of these countries have at least one district that is close to reaching the minimum qualifications for a stake to operate. However, additional countries also now appear likely to have stakes organized in the next 1-2 years, including Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and Suriname. As noted in previous posts, low member activity rates, an insufficient number of branches in individual member districts, slow or stagnant growth, and few full-tithe paying Melchizedek Priesthood holders will likely continue to delay the organization of stakes in other countries for several more years to come.

Monday, April 15, 2024

UPDATED: The 10 Countries with the Most Members without a Temple Announced, Under Construction, or in Operation - April 2024

I have updated the list of the countries with the most members without a temple using year-end 2023 membership totals. Temples that service stakes, districts, and mission branches in each country are identified. Previous lists are also available for May 2023, April 2022, March 2022, November 2020, April 2020, April 2019, October 2018, April 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2013, mid-2011, late 2008, and late 2007. Countries in Italics do not have a stake. Mongolia was removed from this list given the announcement of the Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Temple in October of 2023. Zambia has since ascended to the list to replace Mongolia. Benin is the country on the list with the most recent Church establishment. The first branch created in Benin was organized in 2005. Countries that may ascend to this list in the coming months and years include (in order) Malawi, Botswana, Ireland, Tanzania, Armenia, Trinidad and Tobago, Albania, Romania, Cameroon, the Czech Republic, and New Caledonia.

 1. Uganda

  • 22,318 members
  • 3 stakes, 3 districts
  • 43 congregations (18 wards, 25 branches)
  • Johannesburg South Africa Temple (Nairobi Kenya Temple under construction)
2. Malaysia
  • 11,086 members
  • 0 stakes, 5 districts
  • 24 congregations (24 branches)
  • Hong Kong China Temple (Singapore Republic of Singapore Temple announced)

3.  Togo

  • 7,141 members
  • 3 stakes
  • 26 congregations (19 wards, 7 branches)
  • Ghana Accra Temple

4.  Jamaica

  • 6,846 members
  • 1 stake, 1 district
  • 18 congregations (6 wards, 12 branches)
  • Port-au-Prince Haiti Temple

5.  Guyana

  • 6,834 members
  • 0 stakes, 2 districts
  • 12 congregations (12 branches)
  • Caracas Venezuela Temple

6. Marshall Islands

  • 6,762 members
  • 2 stakes
  • 13 congregations (12 wards, 1 branch)
  • Suva Fiji Temple (Tarawa Kiribati Temple announced)

7.  Benin

  • 6,140 members
  • 2 stakes, 1 district
  • 30 congregations (21 wards, 9 branches)
  • Accra Ghana Temple (Lagos Nigeria Temple announced)

8.  Federated States of Micronesia

  • 5,940 members
  • 1 stake, 1 district
  • 22 congregations (5 wards, 17 branches)
  • Yigo Guam Temple 

9.  Zambia

  • 5,906 members
  • 1 stake, 2 districts
  • 17 congregations (6 wards, 11 branches)
  • Johannesburg South Africa Temple (Harare Zimbabwe Temple under construction)

 10.  Belize

  • 5,631 members
  • 2 districts
  • 12 congregations (12 branches)
  • Guatemala City Guatemala Temple (Coban Guatemala Temple scheduled for dedication)

Sunday, April 14, 2024

New Temples Announced in April 2024 Part I: Outside the United States

Uturoa French Polynesia Temple 

The Uturoa French Polynesia Temple will be the Church's second temple in French Polynesia following the Papeete Tahiti Temple. Uturoa (population: 3,663) is a village located on Raiatea - one of the islands in the western Society Islands (Leeward Islands). Only two stakes appear likely to be assigned to the new temple which were organized in 1993 (Raromatai Tahiti Stake) and 2018 (Bora Bora Tahiti Stake). Slow, but steady, growth has occurred on the islands that are likely to be assigned to the new temple. I added Raiatea to the list of less likely locations to have a temple announced in September 2019. As of year-end 2023, there were 29,700 members in French Polynesia. Currently the two stakes in Raromatai and Bora Bora are assigned to the Papeete Tahiti Temple. Islands likely to be assigned to the new temple have a combined population of 36,000 people.

Chihuahua Mexico Temple

The Chihuahua Mexico Temple will be the Church's third temple in Chihuahua State, Mexico, and the 25th temple in Mexico following the Mexico City Mexico Temple (dedicated in 1983), the Colonia Juárez Chihuahua Mexico Temple (dedicated in 1999), the Ciudad Juárez Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Hermosillo Sonora Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Oaxaca Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Tuxtla Gutiérrez Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Tampico Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Villahermosa Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Mérida Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Veracruz Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Guadalajara Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2001), the Monterrey Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2002), the Tijuana Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2015), the Puebla Mexico Temple (announced in 2018), the Querétaro Mexico Temple (announced in April 2021), the Torreón Mexico Temple (announced in April 2021), the Culiacán Mexico Temple (announced in October 2021), the San Luis Potosí Mexico Temple (announced in April 2022), the Mexico City Benemérito Mexico Temple (announced in April 2022), the Cuernavaca Mexico Temple (announced October 2022), the Pachuca Mexico Temple (announced October 2022), the Toluca Mexico Temple (announced October 2022), the Tula Mexico Temple (announced October 2022), and the Cancún México Temple (announced October 2023). I added Chihuahua to my list of less likely locations to have a temple announced in September 2019. The new temple will likely service four stakes and three districts in southern Chihuahua State. There are three stakes in the city of Chihuahua that were organized in 1976, 1987, and 1989. Church growth rates in Mexico have dramatically decreased within the past decade, albeit the Church has begun to experience steady net increases in the number of ward and branches again within the past couple years. There were 1,516,406 Latter-day Saints in Mexico as of year-end 2023. Currently, stakes in southern Chihuahua State are assigned to the Ciudad Juarez Mexico Temple, whereas the three districts are assigned to the Colonia Juarez Mexico Temple. The Church organized the Mexico Chihuahua Mission in 1988.

Florianópolis Brazil Temple

The Florianópolis Brazil Temple will be the Church's 23rd temple in Brazil following the São Paulo Brazil Temple (dedicated in 1978), the Recife Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Porto Alegre Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Campinas Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2002), the Curitiba Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2008), the Manaus Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2012), the Fortaleza Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2019), the Rio de Janeiro Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2022), the Belem Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2022), the Brasília Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2023), the Salvador Brazil Temple (announced in 2018), the São Paulo Brazil East Temple (announced in 2020), the Belo Horizonte Brazil Temple (announced in April 2021), the Vitória Brazil Temple (announced in October 2021), the Maceió Brazil Temple (announced in April 2022), the Santos Brazil Temple (announced in April 2022), the Londrina Brazil Temple (announced in October 2022), the Riberão Prêto Brazil Temple (announced in October 2022), the Teresina Brazil Temple (announced in April 2023), the Natal Brazil Temple (announced in April 2023), the Goiânia Brazil Temple (announced in October 2023), and the João Pessoa Brazil Temple (announced in October 2023). The Florianópolis/São José metropolitan area has been on my list of more likely temples to be announced for many years, as Florianópolis/São José is the most populous metropolitan area in Santa Catarina State (which was the Brazilian state with the most stakes without a temple prior to the temple announcement). The first stake in Florianópolis was organized in 1985, and two more stakes were later organized in the metropolitan area in 1993 and 2021 (although a previous stake once operated in Monte Cristo on the north side of the metropolitan area from 1993 until it was discontinued in 2001). Currently there are 11 stakes in Santa Catarina State - all of which appear likely to be assigned to the new temple. One district may also be assigned to the new temple (the União da Vitória Brazil District). The Church has experienced significant growth in Santa Catarina State within the past decade, as five stakes have been organized since 2013. Stakes and districts in Santa Catarina State have been assigned to the Curitiba Brazil Temple and the Porto Alegre Brazil Temple. The Church reported 1,494,571 Latter-day Saints in Brazil as of year-end 2023. The Church organized the Brazil Florianópolis Mission in 1993.

Rosario Argentina Temple

The Rosario Argentina Temple will be the Church's seventh temple in Argentina following the Buenos Aires Argentina Temple (dedicated in 1986), the Córdoba Argentina Temple (dedicated in 2015), the Salta Argentina Temple (announced in April 2018), the Mendoza Argentina Temple (announced in October 2018), the Bahía Blanca Argentina Temple (announced in 2020), and the Buenos Aires City Center Argentina Temple (announced in October 2022). The new temple will likely service 8-9 stakes and 4-6 districts in Rosario, Santa Fe, and surrounding areas. The Church has experienced slow growth in this area of Argentina. There are three stakes in Rosario that were organized in 1974, 1980, and 1995. The Church reported 481,518 Latter-day Saints in Argentina as of year-end 2023. The Argentina Rosario Mission was organized in 1972. Stakes in Rosario are currently assigned to the Buenos Aires Argentina Temple, whereas stakes in Santa Fe are assigned to the Córdoba Argentina Temple.

Edinburgh Scotland Temple

The Edinburgh Scotland Temple will be the Church's first temple in Scotland and fourth temple in the United Kingdom following the London England Temple (dedicated in 1958), the Preston England Temple (dedicated in 1998), and the Birmingham England Temple (announced in April 2022). The new temple will likely service the five stakes in Scotland and the one stake in Northern Ireland. Stakes in Scotland and Northern Ireland currently pertain to the Preston England Temple district. The Church operates one stake in Edinburgh that was organized in 1980. However, the oldest stake in Scotland was created in Glasgow in 1962. The Church has reported stagnant membership growth in Scotland for many years. Scotland has ranked among likely locations to have a temple announced for many years due to its sizable membership and distance from the nearest temple in Preston, England. Some of the lowest member activity rates in the British Islands has appeared to have contributed to the delay of a temple announcement for Scotland. Scotland has experienced a decline in the number of wards and branches over the past couple decades. The Scotland/Ireland Mission was organized in 1961. The mission originally only included Scotland, but Ireland was added when the Ireland Dublin Mission was discontinued in 2010. The Church reported 186,350 members in the United Kingdom in 2023. The Church reported approximately 23,000 Latter-day Saints in Scotland as of 2017, whereas there were approximately 26,000 Latter-day Saints in Scotland for most of the 1990s and 2000s.

Brisbane Australia South Temple

The Brisbane Australia South Temple will be the Church's sixth temple in Australia following the completion of the Sydney Australia Temple (dedicated in 1984), the Adelaide Australia Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Melbourne Australia Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Perth Australia Temple (dedicated in 2001), and the Brisbane Australia Temple (dedicated in 2003). The new temple will be the first time that the Church has announced a second temple for a single metropolitan area in Oceania. Although Brisbane is the location of the most recently dedicated temple in Australia, the city has experienced tremendous growth within the past two decades in regard to the number of stakes and congregations. There are now 12 stakes in the greater Brisbane area stretching from the Sunshine Coast in the north to the Gold Coast in the south. The Brisbane Australia Temple is located in the heart of downtown Brisbane and services all stakes in Queensland. The new temple will likely service approximately 6-8 stakes in southern Brisbane and the Gold Coast areas. The first stake in Brisbane was organized in 1960, whereas the most recently organized stake in the area was the Brisbane Australia Beenleigh Stake in 2018. The Australia Brisbane Mission was organized in 1973. There were 157,079 Latter-day Saints in Australia as of year-end 2023. Slow membership and congregational growth has recently occurred in the Brisbane area.

Victoria British Columbia Temple

The Victoria British Columbia Temple will be the Church's second temple in British Columbia following the Vancouver British Columbia Temple (dedicated in 2010) and the 11th temple in Canada. The new temple will likely service only two stakes - both of which are located on Vancouver Island. The Victoria British Columbia Stake was organized in 1975, whereas the Nanaimo British Columbia Stake was organized in 1997. Both stakes are assigned to the Vancouver British Columbia Temple and are small in terms of the number of congregations. Although no wards or branches have been discontinued on Vancouver Island within the past 15 or so years, there has been only one branch organized during this time. The Church reported 31,171 members in British Columbia as of year-end 2023. There were 203,339 Latter-day Saints in Canada as of year-end 2023. Church membership increased by 1.25% in 2023 - the highest annual membership growth rate seen since 2012.

Maracaibo Venezuela Temple

The Maracaibo Venezuela Temple will be the Church's second temple in Venezuela following the dedication of the Caracas Venezuela Temple in 2000. Maracaibo has been on my list of the most likely cities to have a temple announced for many years, and Venezuela was the country with the most Latter-day Saints with only one temple prior to the new temple announcement. Former Church President Gordon B. Hinckley proposed a temple in Maracaibo in 1999. There are five stakes in the immediate Maracaibo area (the first stake was organized in 1980), and there are two more stakes in nearby cities. Stakes in the area have had many wards discontinued in the past decade due to active members moving away from Venezuela, and unless members return or large numbers of converts are baptized and retained, multiple stakes will likely consolidate in the near future. The Church opened the Venezuela Maracaibo Mission in 1979. Altogether, the new temple will likely service 12 stakes and three districts. The Church reported 176,623 members in Venezuela as of year-end 2023. This summer, Venezuela will also transfer to the Caribbean area from the South America Northwest Area. All stakes in Venezuela are currently assigned to the Caracas Venezuela Temple.

Saturday, April 13, 2024

Congregational Growth by Country in 2023

Below is a list of the countries where the Church reported a net increase of four or more units for the year 2023. The annual percentage increase for the number of wards and branches for each country is also provided:

  1. Nigeria +41 (5.33% increase)
  2. Philippines +24 (1.89% increase)
  3. Democratic Republic of the Congo +20 (7.43% increase)
  4. Ghana +17 (4.82% increase)
  5. Mexico +13 (0.70% increase)
  6. Mozambique +13 (23.2% increase) 
  7. Kenya +12 (21.1% increase)
  8. Ecuador +10 (3.15% increase)
  9. Zimbabwe +9 (9.89% increase) 
  10. Liberia +8 (11.9% increase) 
  11. Angola +6 (31.6% increase) 
  12. Benin +6 (30.0% increase)
  13. Cote d'Ivoire +5 (1.95% increase)
  14. Peru +5 (0.64% increase)
  15. Republic of the Congo +4 (12.5% increase) 
  16. Sierra Leone +4 (4.44% increase) 
The net increase in the number of wards and branches in these 16 countries totals 197; a larger number than the net increase in the number of wards and branches for the entire Church for 2023 (160). Seven countries experienced a net decrease of four or more units during 2023. Altogether, the net decrease in congregations in these four nations totaled 64. 
  1. United States -21 (0.14% decrease)  
  2. Russia -12 (17.4% decrease)  
  3. United Kingdom -10 (3.15% decrease) 
  4. Hong Kong -9 (25.7% decrease)
  5. Canada -4 (0.81% decrease)
  6. Brazil -4 (0.18% decrease)
  7. Australia -4 (1.29% decrease)

Previous lists for annual congregational growth by country are available for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020-2021, and 2022.

A few observations to make about congregational growth in 2023.

First, the rate at which the number of congregations increases continues to lag behind membership growth rates for the worldwide Church - a trend that has continued year over year since 1998. The average ward or branch now has 548 members, whereas the average ward or branch had 405 members in 1998. This metric suggests that the Church has continued to experience compounding problems with low member activity rates in countries that have the most Latter-day Saints on the Church records. Generally, equal percentage growth rates for the number of total congregations and Church membership suggest that member activity rates are stable. This metric is not a perfect barometer for member activity rates. For example, this statistic does not track the progress of branches growing sufficiently to become wards, as wards require significantly more active members to operate than a branch. Also, this metric may make a country look like it is having improving member activity rates if many new branches are organized in cities with few members. Like any missiology statistics, they should be examined with several others to get a more accurate assessment of the health of the Church and growth trends. 

Second, the United States has now had two years in a row when it ranked as the country with the largest net decrease in congregations for the entire world - a distinction never led by the Church in the United States prior to 2021. The Church in the United States reported a net increase of 105,774 members between year-end 2021 and year-end 2023, yet the Church reported a net decline of 83 congregations during this two-year period. This resulted in a net increase of 10 members for the average ward or branch during this time frame. Although this may appear alarming and suggest a decreasing rate of member activity and/or convert retention during this period, the Church reported a loss of seven members per average ward or branch between 2018 and 2021. Thus, the average number of members per ward or branch as of year-end 2023 (471) was not significantly different than what it was in 2018 (468). Furthermore, the net loss of congregations in the United States in 2023 (21) was nearly one-third the net loss of congregations in the United States in 2022 (62). In sum, there is no evidence from examining these statistics that the Church in the United States has experienced worsening member activity or convert retention rates within the past decade given the stability in the members-to-congregations ratio. Moreover, the number of stakes in the United States continues increase year over year. The Church reported 1,642 stakes in 2019, 1,658 stakes in 2020, 1,671 stakes in 2021, 1,681 stakes in 2022, and 1,693 stakes in 2023. 

Third, most new congregations created in the Church were in Africa in 2023. This has been a longstanding trend for much of the past decade. The Church in the Philippines continues to experience steady congregational growth rates comparable to membership growth rates. Congregational growth rates have accelerated in a few Latin American countries, such as Ecuador and Mexico. However, the Church reported a net decrease in the number of congregations in Brazil. Typically, the Church in Brazil reports net increases in the number of congregations year over year.

Wednesday, April 10, 2024

Country-by-Country Membership Statistics Released for 2023; Membership Growth in the United States Highest Since 2015

The Church has released year-end 2023 membership and congregation totals for most nations with a reported Church presence. These statistics can be accessed on Church's official website at https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/facts-and-statistics.

Countries with the highest annual membership growth rates for 2023 are listed below. Lists for nations with the most rapid annual membership growth rates are also available for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022. A list of the biennial membership growth rates for countries between year-end 2019 to year-end 2021 can be found here. The percentage next to the country name for the list below is the annual membership growth rate for 2023. Countries in bold experienced a membership increase greater than 200 during 2023.

  1. Mozambique - 34.1% -24,733
  2. Rwanda - 33.2% - 1,537
  3. Tanzania - 32.3% - 3,969
  4. Burundi - 24.3% - 1,541
  5. Angola - 23.9% - 5,898
  6. Malawi - 23.4% - 4,776
  7. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 13.0% - 78
  8. Cameroon - 12.9% - 3,071
  9. DR Congo - 11.8% - 115,027
  10. Zambia - 11.2% - 5,906
  11. Solomon Islands - 10.8% - 1,524
  12. Kenya - 10.1% - 19,206
  13. Republic of the Congo - 10.0% - 12,626

The following is a list of the top 10 countries with the highest negative membership growth rates (i.e., fastest rate of membership decline) during 2023. The percent growth rate is provided next to the country name, and the number to the right of the percentage growth rate is the year-end 2023 membership total for the country. Only three of these countries had at least 1,000 members: Ukraine, Guam, and Estonia.

  1. Kazakhstan - -4.80% - 218
  2. Montenegro - -3.13% - 31
  3. Ukraine - -2.81% - 10,053
  4. Sint Maarten - -2.74% - 284
  5. Israel - -2.66% - 329
  6. Jersey - -2.48% - 275
  7. Estonia - -1.83% - 1,125
  8. Guernsey - -1.67% - 59
  9. Guam - -1.41% - 2,511
  10. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines - -1.24% - 717

Below is a list of the top 10 countries by numerical membership net increase for 2023. Each country is provided with the numerical national increase in membership for the year. Additionally, the percentage of total church membership increase that is accounted for by each country is provided (i.e., a percentage of the world membership increase for 2023 that is within that country). Lists are also available for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022. A list of the biennial period of 2020-2021 is also available. 70.9% of the 2022 net increase in Church membership can be attributed to the following 10 nations. 

  1. United States - 64,765 - 29.1%
  2. Brazil - 22,050 - 9.9%
  3. Philippines - 14,017 - 6.3%
  4. DR Congo - 12,165 - 5.5%
  5. Nigeria - 11,482 - 5.2%
  6. Mexico - 8,686 - 3.9%
  7. Peru - 7,081 - 3.2%
  8. Argentina - 6,533 - 2.9%
  9. Mozambique - 6,290 - 2.8%
  10. Ghana - 4,964 - 2.2%

Below is a list of the top four countries by numerical membership decrease for 2023. Each country is provided with the numerical national decrease in membership during the year 2023. There were only four countries that experienced a net decrease by 100 or more during 2023. 

  1. United Kingdom - -583
  2. Ukraine - -291
  3. Tonga - -196
  4. Japan - -155

Several points to make with the 2023 annual membership growth numbers.

First, the Church continues to experience rapid, unprecedented growth in East Africa - a region of Africa that has been historically underserved with resources with enormous populations and where the Church has generally reported slow or moderate growth despite a Church presence in most nations for decades. All four of the countries with the most rapid membership growth rates in 2023 were in East Africa. Church membership in Tanzania has more than doubled within the past four years to approximately 4,000. In Mozambique, there was a net increase of 6,290 just in 2023 - a remarkable number considering there were only 18,443 Latter-day Saints at the beginning of the year. Rwanda and Burundi remain near the top of the list. Like Tanzania, Church membership in Rwanda and Burundi has doubled within the past four years. The creation of the Africa Central Area in 2020, combined with more aggressive national outreach expansion efforts by mission leadership and using Swahili and local languages for Church meetings and in proselytism, such as Kinyarwanda, appear to have contributed to this acceleration in growth. 

Second, the Church continues to maintain rapid growth in Central Africa, particularly in the DR Congo where membership has surpassed 100,000 and annual membership growth rates remain higher than 10%. The Church in Angola has continued to experience rapid growth, with membership doubling within the past five years to approximately 5,900.

Third, annual membership growth rates have slowed in West Africa - the area of Africa that generally experienced the most rapid membership growth rates in the 2010s. There were no countries in West Africa (with published membership statistics) that experienced an annual membership growth rate of 10% or more during 2023. In contrast, the Church in most West African nations experienced membership growth rates greater than 10% during most years in the 2010s. Togo and Benin are at the top of the list, with membership growth rates of 9.9% and 9.5% in 2023, respectively. Membership growth rates remained significant, albeit less impressive than in the 2010s, for Sierra Leone (7.7%), but were substantially lower for Liberia (5.4%), Nigeria (5.2%), Ghana (4.9%), and Cote d'Ivoire (4.8%). The Church in West Africa in the past 1-2 years has opened far fewer previously unreached cities, towns, and villages to missionary work and organized few congregations than in many of the years in the 2010s when hundreds of locations in West Africa had branches organized for the first time. Mission leaders in West Africa have generally reported an emphasis on improving the quality of prebaptismal teaching, which has resulted in fewer convert baptisms (or at least not accelerating rates of convert baptisms), particularly in locations where there have been more frequent instances of struggling congregations (which has appeared to be due to disrupted church operations and missionary work from the COVID-19 pandemic such as in some areas of Ghana). Even then, missions such as the Liberia Monrovia Mission, have reported a renewed emphasis on quality over quantity for convert baptism goals, and this has resulted in a substantial decrease in the numbers of converts baptized.

Fourth, the Church in the United States reported the highest net increase in membership (64,765) since 2015 and the highest annual membership growth rate (0.95%) since 2015. In contrast, the net increase in Church membership for the United States generally ranged from 39,000-42,000 between 2018 and 2022 (and it was only 41,987 for the two-year period from year-end 2019 to year-end 2021). It is unclear what has driven an increase of more than 20,000 for 2023 compared to the annual average for the several previous years. Some possibilities include fewer deaths, larger numbers of convert baptisms, larger numbers of new children of record, higher rates of children of record being baptized at age 8, and fewer incidents of name removal or excommunication (loss of membership), although I do not have enough information to determine whether it is primarily one variable or a combination of these variables that is responsible for this development. 

Fifth, of the 159 countries/territories with reported membership figures for 2023, 61 experienced near-zero growth (less than 1%) or negative membership growth rates. However, there were only four countries where membership decreased by more than 100 for the year. Most of these nations were in Europe, developed countries in Asia, and the Caribbean.

Sunday, April 7, 2024

15 New Temples Announced

Today, President Russell M. Nelson announced plans to construct 15 new temples in each of the following locations:

  • Uturoa, French Polynesia
  • Chihuahua, Mexico
  • Florianópolis, Brazil
  • Rosario, Argentina
  • Edinburgh, Scotland
  • Brisbane, Australia (south area)
  • Victoria, British Columbia
  • Yuma, Arizona
  • Houston, Texas (south area)
  • Des Moines, Iowa
  • Cincinnati, Ohio
  • Honolulu, Hawaii
  • West Jordan, Utah
  • Lehi, Utah
  • Maracaibo, Venezuela

With today's announcement, there are now 350 temples announced, under construction, or dedicated. Moreover, the number of temples planned or dedicated has doubled since 2016 when four temples were announced in April.

Saturday, April 6, 2024

2023 Statisical Report

This afternoon, the Church reported its Annual statistical report as of December 31st, 2023.

  • Membership: 17,255,394 (increase of 252,933 from 2022; a 1.49% annual increase)
  • Congregations: 31,490 (increase of 160 from 2022; a 0.51% annual increase)
  • Stakes: 3,565 (increase of 44 from 2022; a 1.25% annual increase)
  • Districts: 489 (decrease of 28 from 2022; a 5.41% annual decrease)
  • Missions: 414 (increase of 3 from 2022; a 0.73% annual increase)
  • Convert Baptisms: 251,763 (increase of 39,591 from 2022; an 18.6% annual increase)
  • Increase of Children on Record: 93,594 (increase of 4,535 from 2022; a 5.09% annual increase)
  • Full-time Teaching Missionaries: 67,871 (increase of 5,327 from 2022; an 8.52% annual increase)
  • Senior Service Missionaries: 27,801 (increase of 731 from 2022; a 2.70% annual increase)
  • Young Service Missionaries: 3,884 (increase of 1,148 from 2022; a 42.0% annual increase)

Several observations regarding the 2023 Statistical Report:

First, annual membership increased by the highest rate since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, at 1.49% (membership increased by 1.54% in 2019). Moreover, the annual rate of membership growth was also greater than for each of the two years prior 2019 (1.48% in 2017, 1.21% in 2018). The summation of new children of record and converts baptized in 2023 was 345,357 - the highest number since 2016. The difference between the summation of new children of record and converts baptized and the actual increase in church membership for 2023 was 92,424 - the lowest number since 2019. Thus, the number of members removed from Church records due to death, resignation, excommunication (loss of membership), or children not being baptized by age 9 was less than for each of the last several years, and this number ranked near all-time lows within the past decade (which has ranged from approximately 92,000 to 140,000).

Second, there was a significant increase in the number of converts baptized in 2023 - the highest number seen since 2015. The percentage increase in new converts baptized in 2023 versus 2022 was 18.6%. Teaching missionaries are baptizing a larger number of converts per missionary now, as the number of teaching missionaries serving increased by only 8.52%. Although this is a positive development for what has been seen within the past decade for convert baptism trends, these numbers remain tens of thousands below the all-time highs of convert baptisms reached in the late 1980s and the 1990s when there were several years of more than 300,000 converts baptized (1990 was the year with the all-time high of 330,877 converts baptized). Nevertheless, it is also important to note that these record years of the most converts baptized had a preponderance of converts baptized with minimal teaching and preparation with high rates of attrition immediately after baptism. Convert retention rates are significantly higher now compared to what they were during these years of the highest numbers of converts baptized.

Third, there was a notable increase (5.09%) in the number of new children added to Church records in 2023 (93,594) compared to 2022 (89,059). This statistic measures the number of unbaptized children, usually infants, who are added to Church records, often after they are blessed and given a name. The number of new children added to Church records in 2023 was the highest reported since 2019 when there was an increase of 94,266 children added to Church records. The Church has struggled for decades to augment the number of children born in the Church and added to the records. The Church reached its all-time high for the most new children of record added more than 40 years ago back in 1982 at 124,000. This is a sobering trend reflecting not only the dramatically decreasing size of Latter-day Saint families in the United States and other developed countries (as well as issues with divorce and young adults not marrying), but it also shows that the Church has struggled to establish full-member families in countries with the highest membership growth rates that often have much higher fertility rates than the United States and other developed nations (such as in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and the Philippines).

Fourth, the number of full-time missionaries serving has continued to significantly increase, including for both teaching missionaries and service missionaries. The number of teaching missionaries serving in 2023 was the highest it has ever been in the Church when the four-year period of the "double cohort" is excluded (as these years included many more members serving missions because of the lowering of the minimum age for missionary service by one year for men and two years for women). The average number of converts baptized per missionary also increased in 2023 to 3.71 - tying with the year 2019 as the year with the most converts baptized per missionary since 2012 (the lowering of the minimum age for missionary service decreased the average number of converts baptized per missionary per year from approximately 5.0 to 3.5). The number of young service missionaries increased by nearly 50% in 2023, albeit these young service missionaries remain a small group (3,884) compared to teaching missionaries (67,871) or senior service missionaries (27,801).

Fifth, the Church reported its most significant percentage decrease in the number of districts (-5.42%) since it began to report the number of districts in the worldwide Church in 1981, and the net decrease in the number of districts for 2023 tied with 1996 as the year with the greatest numerical decrease in the number of districts ever reported (-28). The Church has reported a net decline in the number of districts year over year since 2009. Thus, the number of districts has decreased from 622 as of year-end 2008 to 489 as of year-end 2023. The Church has gone through varying trends with district growth that have corresponded with periods of expansion into previously unreached or lesser-reached areas of the Church, with a period of significant growth from 1987-1994 (expansion in Latin America, the Philippines, and Eastern Europe), a period of decline from 1995 to 2001 (districts maturing into stakes, district consolidations to prepare for stakes), and a period of general stagnation from 2002 to the late 2000s. The significant net decrease in the number of districts in 2023 appeared attributed to consolidating small districts into neighboring stakes or districts, districts maturing into stakes, and few new districts created during the year.

Sixth, the net increase in the number of stakes created in 2023 (44) was the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic, and the net increase in the number of stakes was comparable to 2018 (42) and 2019 (54), albeit the number of stakes discontinued in 2023 (16) was the highest reported since the early 2000s when dozens of stakes were discontinued in Latin America and the Philippines. Eleven (11) of the 16 discontinued stakes in 2023 were in the United States - a country that has typically had few stakes discontinued year to year (usually less than five a year). However, it is important to note that many of these areas with discontinued stakes have for years experienced a decline due to active members moving away with few active members to replace them. 

Seventh, the number of official congregations (i.e., wards and branches) in the Church significantly increased in 2023 when compared to 2022. However, the net increase in the number of official congregations remains approximately half of what was seen at pre-COVID-19 levels. The number of new congregations created in 2023 was less than what was generally seen prior to 2020 for Sub-Saharan Africa which was a major source of new congregations created in the 2010s. Some countries had some significant improvements with net increases in new congregations, such as in Latin America, whereas countries like the United States continue to lag behind what has historically been seen for the rate of new congregations being created.

Trends in mission growth were unremarkable for 2023. However, it is important to note that the Church plans to organize 36 new missions in mid-2024, which would result in 2024 being the year with the second most missions ever created only after 2013 when 58 new missions were created.

Sunday, March 17, 2024

New Stakes Created in Ghana and Utah, Districts Reinstated in Bulgaria and Iceland, Two Stakes Discontinued in Utah

Ghana

A new stake was created in Ghana on March 3rd. The Sofokrom Ghana Stake was organized on March 3rd from the Mpintsin Ghana Stake (organized in 2016) and includes the following six wards and one branch: the Daboase, Essipon, Inchaban, Shama, Sofokrom 1st, and Sofokrom 2nd Wards and the Beposo Branch. There are now three stakes in the Takoradi/Sekondi metropolitan area where the Church will organize a new mission this summer from a division of the Ghana Cape Coast Mission. 

There are now 30 stakes and 11 districts in Ghana.

Utah

A new stake was created in Mapleton, Utah on February 25th. The Mapleton Utah East Stake was organized from a division of the Mapleton Utah North Stake (organized in 1997) which had 14 wards prior to the splitting of the stake. The new stake includes the following seven wards: the Mapleton 2nd, Mapleton 6th, Mapleton 7th, Mapleton 15th, Mapleton 23rd, Mapleton 29th, and the Mapleton 31st Wards. There are now four stakes in Mapleton. The two other stakes in Mapleton were organized in 1975 and 2016, and both of these stakes (Mapleton and Mapleton West) appear likely to divide within the near future as they have 12 wards and 11 wards and one branch, respectively.

Two stakes were also discontinued in Utah. The Midvale Utah East Stake (organized in 1968) and the Midvale Utah North Stake (organized in 1985) were discontinued after many wards have been discontinued in the Midvale area during the past couple of years. Retained wards in the Midvale Utah North Stake were reassigned to the Midvale Utah Stake, whereas retained wards in the Midvale Utah East Stake were reassigned to the Midvale Utah Union Fort Stake and the Midvale Utah Union Park Stake.

There are now 635 stakes and 2 districts in Utah.

Bulgaria

The Sofia Bulgaria District was reinstated on February 18th. The district used to operate from the early 1990s until 2011 when all branches in Bulgaria were reassigned to the Bulgaria Sofia Mission. All seven branches in Bulgaria were assigned to the district, including the Blagoevgrad, the Bourgas, the Plovdiv, the Ruse, the Sofia, the Stara Zagora, and the Varna Branches. The Church in Bulgaria has reported essentially stagnant membership growth for the past decade, and the number of branches in the country has remained unchanged since 2018. Prior to the reinstatement of the Sofia Bulgaria District, Bulgaria was the country with the most members (2,398) without a stake or a district.

Iceland 

The Reykjavik Iceland District was reinstated on February 25th. The district includes all four branches in Iceland, including the Akureyri, the Reykjavik 1st, the Reykjavik 2nd (Spanish), and Selfoss Branches. The district was first organized in the 1980s and discontinued in 2006 when the number of branches in Iceland decreased to one after the closure of the military branch. The Church in Iceland has made a significant turnaround in the past 15 years, with three new branches being organized. However, the district presidency is minimally staffed given few members in the country. There were 382 Latter-day Saints in Iceland as of year-end 2022. Membership has increased by approximately 100 within the past five years. Iceland pertains to the Denmark Copenhagen Mission.

Sunday, March 3, 2024

New Temple Predictions - March 2024 Edition

I have updated my temple prediction map in preparation for General Conference in April. The size of the Church in a specific geographical area (i.e. number of stakes and districts, the number of wards and branches), the age of the oldest stake in a specific geographical area, church growth trends, the distance to the nearest temple, traffic/transportation, the square-footage of the nearest temple, the historical number of weekly endowment sessions scheduled at the nearest temple, and member and missionary reports regarding member activity, temple attendance, and convert retention are variables used to identify prospective sites for future temple announcements. Altogether, there are 208 potential temples on the map (which is 8 potential temple site less than the total number of potential sites identified in September 2023). The following 12 locations have been added to the temples prediction map with this current update - all of which are less likely temples:

  • Butuan, Philippines 
  • Daejeon, Korea
  • Gaborone, Botswana 
  • Honolulu, Hawaii
  • Huntsville, Alabama
  • Kolwezi, Democratic Republic of the Congo 
  • Nagoya, Japan
  • Portoviejo, Ecuador
  • Pretoria, South Africa
  • Pucallpa, Peru
  • Sagay, Philippines
  • Warri, Nigeria

Also, there were five locations that were moved from the less likely to be announced list to the more likely to be announced list. These locations included:

  • Glasgow, Scotland OR Edinburgh, Scotland (the largest number of stakes without a nearby temple in Europe)
  • Maputo, Mozambique (third stake recently organized, long distance to the nearest temples in Beira, Mozambique and Johannesburg, South Africa)
  • Osorno, Chile (increases in the number of wards in the area, long distance from Concepcion, Chile)
  • San Pablo City, Philippines (closest temple is the Alabang Philippines Temple, few other locations in the Philippines with as many stakes to be serviced by a temple)
  • Yamoussoukro, Cote d'Ivoire (steady, rapid growth in the number of stakes in central and northern Cote d'Ivoire).

In my opinion, the following 10 locations appear most likely to have temples announced this coming General Conference. As always, your prediction lists are welcome and encouraged.

  1. Spanish Fork, Utah
  2. Angeles or Olongapo, Philippines 
  3. Kampala, Uganda
  4. São José, Brazil
  5. Santiago, Dominican Republic
  6. Maracaibo, Venezuela 
  7. Osorno, Chile OR Puerto Montt, Chile
  8. El Paso, Texas
  9. Price, Utah
  10. Bo, Sierra Leone

See below for the map of likely and less likely new temple sites: