Thursday, April 3, 2014

New Temple Predictions Map

As part of a tradition I have maintained for many years prior to General Conference, I have updated my map of likely locations for temples to be announced within the near future. There have not been any significant changes to the map since last October. Nairobi, Kenya was added because the Nairobi Kenya Stake is close to dividing to create a second stake in the metropolitan area, the closest temple to East Africa is in Johannesburg, South Africa, and there is good potential for many new districts to be organized in the region within the near future. Additionally, President Hinckley also publicly proposed that Nairobi would be the site of a future temple once there were a sufficient number of members in East Africa to warrant its construction. Membership has substantially grown within the past two decades. As of year-end 2012, there were approximately 26,500 members in East Africa (Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda).

View Potential New Temples in a larger map


Michael Worley said...

My guesses
1. Lehi, Utah
2. Moscow, Russia
3. Cote d'Ivoire
4. Kenya
5 Richmond, Virginia

Dark Horse: India

Cliff P said...

I think there will be two:
Layton, Utah
Brasilia, Brazil

James Crowther said...

You can add the Quito Turubamba Stake to a future Quito Temple. Also, looking around on Google Directions, Quevedo is is closer to Guayaquil than Quito. But the Riobamba district is closer to Quito than Guayaquil.

In Pocatello, I'd Add Grace and Soda Springs Stakes and subtract the Malad Stake.

My Guess is that there will be two announcements since two temples will be dedicated so far this year, and it's been the tradition for the past few years. But I'll make five guesses:
Managua, Nicaragua
Brasilia, Brazil
Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire
Auckland, New Zealand
Richmond, Virginia

MainTour said...

This is one my favorite conference games. By my kids think I'm silly.

I'm going to repost my predictions from Oct 2013. (My April 2013 picks did really well!)

- Puebla Mexico
- Auckland NZ
- Richmond VA
- Managua Nicaragua
- Ivory Coast

Geoff said...

Ha. We are of like mind.

Brandon Plewe said...

Lately I've been putting my "money" on Puebla Mexico and kept losing. October I bet on "none" and won! I'm going with "none" again. We currently have a backlog of at least 7-8 years, including several that have are still at square one (no announced site) after 3-4 years.

Mike Johnson said...

There are 14 announced temples that aren't yet under construction. I have grouped them by the apparent status from Rick's, with their date of announcement:

Temples with no visibility on progress since announcement:
Urdaneta Philippines Mormon Temple 2-Oct-10
Durban South Africa Mormon Temple 1-Oct-11
Arequipa Perú Mormon Temple 6-Oct-12

The Church owns land where local members believe the temple will be built:
Winnipeg Manitoba Mormon Temple 2-Apr-11
Rio de Janeiro Brazil Mormon Temple 6-Apr-13

The Church has purchased land since the announcement where local members believe the temple will be built:
Cedar City Utah Mormon Temple 6-Apr-13

Site has been announced and is owned by the Church:
Kinshasa Democratic Republic of the Congo Mormon Temple 1-Oct-11
Barranquilla Colombia Mormon Temple 1-Oct-11

Site plans have been submitted to local planning commission for approval:
Tucson Arizona Mormon Temple 6-Oct-12

Site plans have been approved by local planning commission:
Meridian Idaho Mormon Temple 2-Apr-11

Preparatory construction is underway:
Paris France Mormon Temple 1-Oct-11

Pending groundbreaking, not announced yet, but groundbreaking is anticipated in the next year or so:
Concepción Chile Mormon Temple 3-Oct-09
Lisbon Portugal Mormon Temple 2-Oct-10
Star Valley Wyoming Mormon Temple 1-Oct-11

Mike Johnson said...

I thought none would be announced last April on the grounds that (1) President Monson rarely announced temples in April, but did so in October and (2) with all the new missions undoubtedly increasing expenses on the Church, the Church would probably slow new temple announcements. I was wrong last April with two announcements.

I have heard rumors of a temple in Williamsburg Virginia.

My guesses:

1. Richmond/Williamsburg (or possibly Buena Vista, Virginia)
2. Pocatello, Idaho
3. Mongolia

phxmars said...

My guesses
Virginia, Lehi, Cote d'Ivoire

Tyler Sorensen said...

My guess is a darkhorse.. Budapest Hungary, they are working on their second stake and steadily growing it would also serve Romania and Bulgaria if things go south in Ukraine. It could also serve the rest of eastern Europe, New stake in Albania, Croatia, Serbia,Bosnia,Slovenia and Slovakia Possibly even Czech Republic

BYULAW said...

Going to go with some oddball picks this time:
1. Oslo Norway
2. Farmington New Mexico
3. Tacoma Washington
4. San Juan Puerto Rico
5. Antananarivo Madagascar

Bryan Dorman said...

I'm not going to say the area where I live so I don't jinx it.

IF new temples are announced, and I am basing it off of the 200 mile indicator, I would not be surprised to see temple locations for the following areas:

1. Ivory Coast
2. Southern Virginia (BV, RICH or NORFOLK)
3. Budapest
4. Bangkok (or Singapore)
5. Nairobi
Dark horses:
1. Brasilia
2. Mindanao, Phillipines (Davao?)
3. Torreón (or Culiacán)
4. Managua, Nicaragua
5. NW Utah Co/SW SL Co.

Michael Worley said...

I don't recall two conferences without any announcements since 2008. That plus the fact that there's already been a slower pace despite a growing church leads me to suspect 2 or (more likely) 5 temples this time.

Will said...

Brasilia, Brazil
Richmond, VA
Puebla, Mexico
Mindanao, Philippines

And I like Budapest, Hungary as a dark horse.

TempleRick said...

Vienna is a possible alternative to Budapest as an Eastern European outpost temple. Several of the dark horse announcements in the past have been areas where President Monson has a personal connection (like Canada) or where there is a rich Mormon history (like Star Valley and Gila Valley). President Monson is very connected to German-speaking Europe and has visited Austria in the last couple of years. The Vienna Austria Stake has been around for over 30 years while the stake in Budapest is fairly new (2006). The concentration of membership is little higher in Vienna, too, where there are five wards headquartered in the city. In Budapest, there are three wards in the city with the other wards and branches of the stake located in rather distant cities and towns. There is depth of leadership in Austria, too. For example, the current temple president in Freiberg is a member from Vienna, and the current Vienna stake president is a former temple president himself. I'm not aware of any Hungarians who have served in a temple presidency, but it is hard to know.

I tend to favor a temple that serves the metro areas of Virginia than a temple in Buena Vista. (Williamsburg offers a nice central location for the Richmond and Hampton Roads metros.) Since the Church does not own SVU, it seems like a pretty big gamble to put a temple in such a tiny town. The Church likes control over the environment where a temple will be located, and there is no guarantee that SVU will remain what it is unless the Church were to acquire it.

Tyler Sorensen said...

Vienna is too far and too close to Freiberg.. Frankfurt will be the main German Temple, with Freiberg serving the outposts of Austria and Czech Republic, and Poland. Bern Switzerland will primarily only serve Switzerland and parts of France after Rome is finished and will shrink further with the completion of Paris. I like your connections of leadership and with Pres. Monson but in the end I think it needs to be further East

TempleRick said...

Interestingly, the Austrian stakes actually belong to the Frankfurt Temple District. Vienna is about a 450-mile drive to Frankfurt.

SamBennion said...

Tacoma Washington isn't too far-fetched. 12 stakes on the Washington Peninsula, some pretty far removed from the Seattle temple. Plus, the church just purchased a block of land (temple-sized) in Gig Harbor, about fifteen minutes north of Tacoma.

There are 125k members in New Zealand, with an addition couple thousand on New Caledonia and other islands. I like NZ for a guess.

Matt said...

I appreciate all of your predictions! It makes me smile to see them and the dialogue everyone has about them.

The temple announcements have gotten a bit back-logged as others have previously commented. It would not be much of a surprise to see no new temples announced, but you never know!

Here's my top five predictions:
- Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire
- Bangkok, Thailand
- Pocatello, Idaho
- Managua, Nicaragua
- Puebla, Mexico

Dark horse: Hyderabad, India

I am also looking forward to the 2013 statistical report. Rumor has it that convert baptisms soared in 2013 to perhaps as many as 370,000! We'll see if this is accurate in less than 24 hours. There has been a noticeable increase in the number of branches becoming ward of late too, which may substantiate this report I received.

Michael Worley said...

370,000 would be huge, given the surge was phasing in

Craig said...

Here are 13 I think most likely to be announced in the next couple of years. The first two I haven't seen anyone mention. They are in valleys settled early by the Utah pioneers that have been growing fast the past 20 years:
Tooele Utah
Heber City Utah
Lehi Utah
Pocatello ID
Tacoma Washington
Abidijan Cote d”Ivoire
Nairobi Kenya
Managua Nicaragua
Mexico City #2
Puebla Mexico
Brasilia Brazil
Salvador Brazil

Christopher Nicholson said...

For whatever it's worth... today Sergei Seminov, director of seminaries and institutes in Russia, spoke at the Logan Utah LDS Institute. At the end he did a brief Q & A and someone asked if he thought there would be a temple in Russia anytime soon. He said, "No. Next question."

After a bit of laughter he explained that in his judgment (and he described himself as a "realistic optimist") it will be about twenty years, but if it does happen before then, "Hallelujah!"

Grant Emery said...

I think two temples will be announced, but I'm putting down three gursses. Sorry they arent more original!

Côte d'Ivoire
Auckland, NZ

Judd said...

Tier 1:

Nairobi, Kenya (or Kampala Uganda, same region)
Abidjan, Ivory Coast

Tier 2:
Richmond, Virginia
Bangkok, Thailand
Harare, Zimbabwe
Managua, Nicaragua
Brasilia, Brazil

Dark Horse: Papua New Guinea

Mike Johnson said...

>>>I tend to favor a temple that serves the metro areas of Virginia than a temple in Buena Vista. (Williamsburg offers a nice central location for the Richmond and Hampton Roads metros.) Since the Church does not own SVU, it seems like a pretty big gamble to put a temple in such a tiny town. The Church likes control over the environment where a temple will be located, and there is no guarantee that SVU will remain what it is unless the Church were to acquire it.

Rick, that is a good point. Buena Vista comes up as a possibility, not just for the school, but because of concerns I have personally heard expressed by the Washington DC Temple presidency about the four stakes in the valley being so far from the temple. Also, because of concerns about a Richmond temple taking too many stakes away from Washington DC. Buena Vista--which offers land and is an area the Church has invested in as well offers the ability to give the state with the 10th highest LDS population a temple with minimal disruption to the Washington DC Temple. The four stakes in that area are as isolated from a temple and as dedicated as most of the areas suggested for temples. As for the school, it is alive because of LDS investment (meaning of course the management team as well as the Marriots). EFY is held there. Our stake's youth conference will be there. Almost all of the private investors in the school are LDS.

Now, I would much prefer a temple in Richmond as that would make my commute to the temple a heck of a lot easier than it now is.

Mike Johnson said...

No temples this general conference.

TempleRick said...

Understood. I would be delighted to have a temple built anywhere in Virginia.

John Pack Lambert said...

I would have put Abijan at the top of my list. However President Monson has put off until at least October any announcement of new temples. I'm not that surprised.

John Pack Lambert said...

I actually expect Uganda and Zimbabwe to get temples before Kenya. I expect the next temple in formerly British Africa to be announced for Zimbabwe, but I could be wrong. Zimbabwe has I believe 4 stakes, to Kenya and Uganda each only having just 1 stake, so it seems a much higher candidate for a temple, but I guess the distance to Johanesburg is a lot less than from Kenya and Uganda.

I don't expect a temple in Singapore until we see a stake in West Malaysia, and I expect the first stake in Malaysia to be in East Malaysia.

John Pack Lambert said...

I don't expect Bangkock to get a temple until Thailand has at least one more stake, and Cambodia has a stake. How long does it take to get from Phenom Penh to Bangkock anyway?

Mike Johnson said...

>>>How long does it take to get from Phenom Penh to Bangkock anyway?

9 hours and 21 minutes according to Google Maps. Assuming cars. Walking would take 124 hours.

Brandon Plewe said...

I win!

Ray said...

Congratulations! I agree that there is a lot of "catchup" to be done, with 29 temples under construction, in the planning stage, or merely announced. Sometimes "backing and filling" is necessary to build a stronger foundation on which to build future growth.

M Shepherd said...

I know there were no new temples this time and there might be a time before we get new ones, but don't sleep on the Belém, Brazil temple. I served there a few years ago and my then-President, Jose Claudio Campos, just got called as an area authority. He's super gung-ho about building a temple there: it was his primary focus the whole time he was there, the stakes there are strengthened, the church bought a giant piece of land for it, he mentioned that land in our mission reunion Friday night. Now that he's moved up the ranks, I know that he'll bug the area presidency about Belém every time they talk.

Ray said...

Brandon, correction. Not 29 temples under construction or in planning--should be 28. I forgot about the recent dedication of the Gilbert Az Temple. Also 2 more scheduled for dedication this year: Fort Lauderdale Fl next month and Phoenix later this year.

Mike Johnson said...

We have 28 temples in the backlog--one of those is having its open house right now and Phoenix should be dedicated this year. President Monson suggested that there will be more than one completed after Fort Lauderdale this year.

We also had 28 temples in the backlog a year ago, with only 1 temple that appeared on the horizon. In some respects, the backlog appears less than it was last year. We should be down to 26 (or maybe fewer) by the end of the year. Last year, the backlog was 28, plus 2 announced, and only 1 completed by the end of the year.

I think the issue is that resources were shifted to support the missionary surge. The Church doesn't spend money that isn't in the bank already.

We perhaps have been spoiled with regular announcements of temples.

Mike Johnson said...

Payson might be dedicated by the end of the year.

Six more temples might be dedicated in 2015:

Córdoba Argentina
Indianapolis Indiana
Provo City Center
Rome Italy
Tijuana México
Trujillo Perú

Ogden will probably be rededicated this year as well.

JonErik said...

I hear occasional talk about a future temple announcement for Pocatello, ID, especially since I live here. For most Pocatello stakes, the drive to Idaho Falls takes less than 40 minutes. Except for the Thursday 7pm endowment session - which consistently is full, most endowment sessions in Idaho Falls only fill 1/3 to 3/4 of the seats. Granted, a Pocatello Temple would cause both Pocatello and Idaho Falls to have to step up their attendance ratios...but there are many areas of the world that need a temple much more than we here in Pocatello do. Just my two cents worth :)

John Pack Lambert said...

That 9 hours 21 minutes is also probably assuming no travel delay at the border. So basically, if you have a car, or charter a bus, you could do it in one day if you do one session, but most likely take two days, or if you charter a bus leave late One evening, drive all day, go to the temple for a session, plus any sealings, then come back home into the next night.

A plus over Hong Kong, but not by much.

Brett Stirling said...

I worked at Manukau City Council from 2006 to 2012. This is the South Auckland City location of the NZ MTC and large new Stake Centre. I had access to the digital resource consents and along with consent for the two existing buildings a third consent was granted for a future religious education facility topped by an angel Moroni.

This is a prominent location on a hill overlooking Manukau City and the main road leading to and from the airport to the Southern parts of the North Island.

The temple will sit in the middle of the two existing buildings on a slightly elevated piece if ground already graded and prepared for the foundations. I know this as I worked in the high rise council building facing the site and had a good view of the construction trucks and diggers removing and returning soil. According to the plans I have the initial grading is complete.

Incidentally the drawings showed a similar style to the Panama City Temple, although I doubt it will be the final design.

As a side note the Hamilton NZ Temple, surrounding campus of the former CCNZ, main road leading to the temple, temple workers and patron accommodations as well as surrounding Church owned farmland are slated for significant investment, construction and renovations in the very near future. This will be a costly project and may delay or hasten the Auckland Temple as the Hamilton Temple is due to close for extensive renovations. It is the largest single ordinance room temple in the Church. Note that it's sister temples in London and Bonn were retrofitted for multiple ordinance rooms and the inclusion of an Angel Moroni years ago.

Brett Stirling said...

Brett Stirling said...

Another rumour with little evidence to substantiate is that both Wellington(the capital of NZ) and Christchurch(the earthquake one) have been given initial approval for temples in the future but require future growth.