Sunday, May 5, 2024

Unprecedented Growth in East Africa

Within the past 2-3 years, the Church has begun to experience unprecedented growth in East Africa where countries have historically ranked among the least reached in the world by Latter-day Saints (and among the slowest growth for the Church in Africa). In this post, I will briefly summarize historical growth trends in East Africa, describe current growth trends and significant developments, and offer predictions for the foreseeable future.

INTRODUCTION

East Africa is traditionally defined as containing countries that stretch from Eritrea, South Sudan, and Ethiopia in the north, to Zimbabwe and Mozambique in the south, to Zambia, Madagascar and Indian Ocean nations in the east, and Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda to the west. With a population of approximately half a billion people, East Africa is the most populous region of Africa and has presented many opportunities for growth which have not been taken advantage of by mission and area presidencies for decades. Consequently, extremely few mission and area resources have been allocated to East Africa notwithstanding political stability, religious freedom, and enormous populations that have often been receptive to the Latter-day Saint gospel message in the past 25 years. For example, in 2000 there were only three missions in all of East Africa that were headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya (organized in 1991); Harare, Zimbabwe (organized in 1987); and Antananarivo, Madagascar (organized in 1998). In fact, several of these nations did not have a Church presence established until relatively recently, such as Malawi (2000), Rwanda (2008), and Burundi (presence reestablished in 2010 after a brief period of an official presence in the early 1990s). Several nations today do not have any official branches, such as South Sudan (used to have one branch for a couple years in the late 2000s/early 2010s), Eritrea, Djibouti (used to have a military branch), Somalia (used to have a branch in Mogadishu primarily comprised of foreigners), Comoros, and Mayotte (officially part of France; very small branch used to operate until approximately 10-15 years ago). With only a few exceptions, most of the countries in East Africa have generally reported slow to moderate membership and congregational growth rates. Also, the Church has generally reported a presence in only a handful of cities in most East African countries. Rural communities in East Africa are almost entirely unreached by the Church. The only examples of branches functioning in rural communities in East Africa are in a few isolated locations in Kenya, Madagascar, and Uganda.

The creation of the Africa Central Area with headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya in 2020 has been a major catalyst that has appeared primarily responsible for the recent surge in growth that has occurred in most of the countries in East Africa. Prior to the creation of the new area, there were only two administrative areas in Africa: the Africa West Area and the Africa Southeast Area (later renamed the Africa South Area). Although the Africa Central Area also includes Central Africa, the area's headquarters in East Africa in Nairobi, Kenya has appeared to favor greater focus and expansion into East Africa more than Central Africa due to closer geographic proximity. Furthermore, the number of missions in East Africa has increased significantly from 3 in 2000 to 5 in 2010 and 9 in 2020. By mid-2024, the Church will have 11 missions in the area. Another major catalyst for recent growth in some countries has been greater use of local languages rather than English, such as Swahili and Kinyarwanda.

SUMMARY OF RECENT GROWTH DEVELOPMENTS

See below for a summary of many of the recent developments in regard to rapid growth in East Africa. Click on the country name that is in bold to access the updated statistical profile on cumorah.com (most profiles have been updated with 2023 figures, and the ones that have not been updated yet will soon be updated).

  • Burundi - The number of branches has doubled from four to eight since January 2024. The Church organized its first branches in four additional cities since January, including Cibitoke (location where a mission president visited hundreds who wanted to join the Church approximately 13-14 years ago but were told to wait until the Church is better established), Gitega, Muzinda, and Ngozi. Never in the Church's history in modern times has the Church in a country gone from official branches in only one city to five cities within so short a period of time. Church membership grew from 823 in 2021 to 1,541 in 2023. The Bujumbura Burundi District was created in 2021, and today there are four branches in the district. The population of Burundi is 13.2 million.
  • Ethiopia - Three new branches were organized in Addis Ababa in 2022 and 2023. A new group was just organized on the outskirts of Addis Ababa in Burayu. The population of Ethiopia is 127 million.
  • Kenya -  Annual membership growth rates have been sustained at 9-10% for 2022 and 2023. Membership grew in 2023 at the fastest rate reported since 2009. The number of wards and branches increased from 54 at year-end 2021 to 69 at present. The Church organized its first branches in six cities/towns/villages in 2023. A third stake was organized in Nairobi in 2023. The population of Kenya is 55.1 million.
  • Madagascar - Church membership increased by 7.1% in 2023 - the highest annual percentage growth rate for membership since 2012. Two new stakes have been organized since 2022, and there are now four stakes and two districts. The population of Madagascar is 30.3 million.
  • Malawi - Church membership increased by 23.4% in 2023 - the highest annual percentage growth rate for membership since 2011. There are now 4,776 Latter-day Saints in Malawi. The number of branches in Malawi increased from 8 to 13 between 2020 and 2023. The population of Malawi is 20.9 million.
  • Mozambique - Church membership increased by more than 6,000 in 2023 to 24,733 by the end of the year - a 34.1% annual increase and one of the largest annual net increases in membership for the entire worldwide Church. Mozambique ranked as the country with the highest membership growth rate in 2023 among countries with publicly released membership totals. Mozambique is also the East African country with the second most Latter-day Saints. However, Church-reported membership comprises a mere 0.073% of the population (one Latter-day Saint per 1,371 people). The number of wards and branches in Mozambique increased by 23.2% in 2023, as there were 13 new wards/branches organized. There are 18 cities with an official ward or branches - 6 of which had their first ward or branch organized since 2022 (and all six of these cities are located in southern Mozambique). Two new stakes and one new district were organized in Mozambique in 2023. The population of Mozambique is 33.9 million.
  • Rwanda - The number of branches has increased from four to nine since 2021, and the first branch outside of Kigali was created in Nyamata in 2022. The Rwanda Kigali Mission was organized in 2022 to service Rwanda, Burundi, and some eastern portions of the DR Congo. Church membership in Rwanda increased from 843 in 2021 to 1,537 in 2023. The population of Rwanda is 14.1 million.
  • Tanzania - Church membership increased by nearly 1,000 in 2023 which was a 32.3% annual increase - the highest reported by the Church in Tanzania since 1998-1999 when there were less than 500 members. The Church reported 3,969 members as of year-end 2023. The number of branches has proliferated from 10 in 2020 to 27 today. Most of these new branches have been organized in Dar Es Salaam where there are now 18 branches. Three new districts have been organized since 2022 in Dar Es Salaam (Chang'ombe), Arusha, and Mwanza. The number of cities with an official branch has increased in the past three years from 3 to 5 with the creation of branches in Moshi (2021) and Dodoma (2023). The population of Tanzania is 67.4 million.
  • Uganda - The Church organized its first branches in three previously unreached cities in 2023 and 2024 (Bukomero, Kalisizo, and Mbarara), thereby increasing the number of cities/towns/villages with at least one ward or branch to 18. The population of Uganda is 48.6 million.
  • Zambia - Church membership increased by 11.2% in 2023 to 5,906 - the most rapid membership growth reported by the Church in Zambia since 2014. A third branch was created in Kitwe. The population of Zambia is 20.6 million.
  • Zimbabwe - Zimbabwe became the first country in East Africa to reach 100 official congregations during 2023, as the number of wards/branches increased from 91 to 100 during the year. Church membership increased by 7.8% in 2023 - the highest annual membership growth rate seen in Zimbabwe since 2013. The Church organized its first branches in five cities between 2000 and 2023, raising the number of cities/towns/villages with a ward or branch to 26. Zimbabwe is the East African country with the highest percentage of Latter-day Saints in the population, at 0.25%, or one Latter-day Saint per 404 people. The population of Zimbabwe is 16.7 million.

PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH

Growth conditions in East Africa remain highly favorable, and prospects appear good for continued rapid growth so long as reasonably high member activity and convert retention rates are sustained (and the amount of resources allocated to the area continue to increase). Here is a list of likely developments within the next 2-5 years that I believe are likely for East Africa given recent growth trends and future opportunities for growth:

  • Continued National Outreach Expansion:
    • Prospects appear most favorable in Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Madagascar for the opening of many cities, towns, and villages to missionary work and creating branches.
    • Area and mission leadership may begin to expand outreach in countries where there has been little to no expansion in the past decade, such as Malawi and Zambia.
    • Ethiopia appears unlikely to have much outreach expansion until a solid center of strength is established in Addis Ababa and the district becomes a stake.
  • The Reestablishment of the Church in South Sudan: I have received reports that the Juba Branch may be close to reinstatement. The Church recently obtained registration with the South Sudanese government. Conditions for growth appear highly favorable. South Sudanese have been uniquely receptive to the Latter-day Saint gospel message and often join the Church in other countries, including in East Africa such as Ethiopia and Uganda.
  • The Creation of the First Stakes in Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi, and Rwanda: All of these countries appear likely to have stakes organized in the next 2-5 years, as there are emerging center of strengths that are approaching the minimum requirements to become stakes. 
  • Adoption of Kirundi as an Official Church Language in Burundi and Chichewa as an Official Language in Malawi: Based on the most recent information I have received, Church activities and services remain to be conducted in French and Swahili in Burundi. However, Kirundi is the primary language spoken in Burundi. With the establishment of branches outside of Bujumbura, it appears likely that we will see a transition to Kirundi similar to what was seen in the past few years in Rwanda when the official language of Church operations transitioned from English to Kinyarwanda. The Church in Malawi also seems likely to utilize Chichewa as its official language given this is the predominant language spoke in the country, including in both Church centers in Blantyre and Lilongwe.
  • The Creation of More Missions: Locations that appear most likely to have new missions organized in East Africa during the next 2-5 years include:
    • Bujumbura, Burundi to service Burundi (currently assigned to the Rwanda Kigali Mission)
    • Eldoret, Kenya to service western Kenya (currently assigned to the Kenya Nairobi Mission. The Kenya Nairobi Mission will divide this summer to create a second mission based in Nairobi).
    • Lilongwe, Malawi to service Malawi (currently assigned to the Zambia Lusaka Mission).
    • A second mission in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania (currently one mission for the entire country). 
    • A second mission in Kampala, Uganda (currently one mission for the entire country).
    • Third mission in Zimbabwe (most likely scenario appears to be a second mission in Harare). 
  • Additional Temple Announcements: The following locations appear most likely to have temples announced within the next five years (although many of these are likely in 4-5 years out and not in the immediate future). I have ordered these from most likely to least likely to be announced.
    • Kampala, Uganda - Uganda is the country with the most Latter-day Saints without a temple announced or dedicated. Kampala appears one of the most likely locations in the world to have a temple announced in the immediate future.
    • Maputo, Mozambique - There are now three stakes in Maputo, and long distance from Beira suggest that a separate temple in Maputo is highly likely. The Church in Mozambique has experienced some of the most rapid growth in the worldwide Church in the past decade. All seven stakes in Mozambique have been organized since 2015, and more stakes appear likely to be organized in the foreseeable future.
    • Bulawayo, Zimbabwe - There have been two stakes in Bulawayo since 2023, and a third stake appears likely in the foreseeable future. Distance from Harare and a mission in Bulawayo both appear to make Bulawayo a good candidate for a future temple.
    • Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania - Similar to the situation with the recent announcement of the Luanda Angola Temple, the Church in Tanzania has experienced rapid growth in both membership and the number of congregations. The creation of two stakes in Dar Es Salaam appears likely within the next 2-4 years. 
    • Kigali, Rwanda - With sustained rapid growth, the creation of a stake appears likely in the next 1-3 years. A second stake may be a possibility by 2028 or 2029. A temple in Kigali appears more likely than in Burundi due to a highly concentrated membership in Kigali that has also been members of the Church longer (and with historically higher activity rates) than in Burundi.
    • Lusaka, Zambia - This location may be a candidate for a temple, but this would be much more likely if there were two stakes in Lusaka. Unfortunately, the Church in Lusaka has experienced no increase in the number of wards since the stake was organized in 2015.
    • Bujumbura, Burundi - A more remote possibility, Bujumbura may have a temple announced by 2029, especially given rapid growth in neighboring cities in the DR Congo, many of which have had branches just recently organized in the past year (i.e., Bakara, Bukavu, Goma, Kavumu, Kalemie) and where most speak Swahili (commonly spoken in the Bujumbura area). 
    • Addis Ababa, Ethiopia - The most remote prospect, Addis Ababa may be a site for a temple announcement in 5 years, but this will depend on whether the Church can achieve sufficient growth and member activity to create a stake with prospects of a second stake in the foreseeable future. However, the Church in Ethiopia has struggled for decades with leadership development and low member activity rates which have been exacerbated by a lack of a mission in the country until 2020 and difficulties with full-time missionaries becoming proficient speakers of Amharic.

Monday, April 29, 2024

Membership Growth by US State for 2023

See below for a list of annual membership growth rates by each United States state for the year 2023. Previous lists are available for 2017, 2018, the biennial period of 2020-2021, and 2022. It is important to note that annual membership growth rates by state have improved beyond what was seen immediately prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, there were only five states reporting a net decline in membership for the year (there were 22 during the 2020-2021 period, whereas there were 13 in 2018 and nine in 2017). The states that had the highest percentage growth rates for membership in 2023 were similar to the states reported in 2022, including New York (most rapid membership growth rate since 2002) and South Carolina (most rapid membership growth rate since 2007). The Church in Arkansas, Missouri, and Tennessee continued to report some of the highest membership growth rates in decades in these states. Rhode Island ranked at the top of the list, with membership increasing by over 10% in 2023 (and the highest reported in that state since the mid-1990s). With one of the smallest memberships of any state, Rhode Island is sensitive to even relatively small fluctuations in membership (there were 4,796 Latter-day Saints in Rhode Island as of year-end 2023). California continued to report a net decline in membership (which has occurred year over year since 2014), although this was near zero for the first time in many years (0.05% decrease in membership for 2023). The rate of membership decrease in California was highest during the 2020-2021 period (-2.84%), and membership decline has generally ranged from 0.2-1.0% within the past decade. Membership growth rates in Utah continue to be near historic lows, at a mere 0.78% in 2023. As noted in my analysis for 2022, members moving away from Utah in larger numbers may partially explain low membership growth rates in that state. However, declining birth rates in the Church also likely contribute to slowing membership growth in Utah. Finally, the state with the greatest decline in membership was New Hampshire (-4.92%). However, it is unclear whether this may have been due to membership records or one or more congregations switching from New Hampshire to a neighboring state rather than an actual decline in membership in the area. 

See below for a list of states and the District of Columbia ranked by membership growth rate for 2023:

1. Rhode Island 10.23%
2. South Carolina 3.57%
3. Arkansas 3.46%
4. New York 3.24%
5. Missouri 3.18%
6. Tennessee 3.10%
7. Nebraska 2.80%
8. New Jersey 2.66%
9. Florida 2.61%
10. Delaware 2.19%
11. Georgia 2.08%
12. Indiana 2.06%
13. Iowa 2.05%
14. North Carolina 1.98%
15. Texas 1.93%
16. Oklahoma 1.92%
17. Kentucky 1.86%
18. Maryland 1.84%
19. Alabama 1.78%
20. Wisconsin 1.74%
21. North Dakota 1.70%
22. Massachusetts 1.67%
23. Maine 1.62%
24. Pennsylvania 1.59%
25. West Virginia 1.52%
26. District of Columbia 1.48%
27. Illinois 1.44%
28. Virginia 1.37%
29. Ohio 1.22%
30. Connecticut 1.21%
31. Minnesota 1.18%
32. Alaska 1.11%
33. Kansas 1.11%
34. Michigan 1.09%
35. South Dakota 0.93%
36. Hawaii 0.91%
37. Arizona 0.79%
38. Utah 0.78%
39. Montana 0.68%
40. Louisiana 0.63%
41. New Mexico 0.55%
42. Mississippi 0.49%
43. Idaho 0.47%
44. Nevada 0.45%
45. Colorado 0.32%
46. Washington 0.15%
47. Oregon -0.02%
48. California -0.05%
49. Vermont -0.15%
50. Wyoming -0.16%
51. New Hampshire -4.92%


Sunday, April 28, 2024

List of Countries with the Most Latter-day Saints with One Temple

Below is a list of countries with the most members with only one temple planned or dedicated:

1. Dominican Republic

  • 149,655 members
  • 22 stakes, 9 districts
  • 203 congregations (146 wards, 57 branches)
  • Santo Domingo Dominican Republic Temple (dedicated in 2000)
2. El Salvador
  • 129,963 members
  • 22 stakes
  • 155 congregations (127 wards, 28 branches)
  • San Salvador El Salvador Temple (dedicated in 2011)

3.  Uruguay

  • 108,060 members
  • 18 stakes, 2 districts
  • 130 congregations (97 wards, 33 branches)
  • Montevideo Uruguay Temple (dedicated in 2001)

4.  Nicaragua

  • 101,907 members
  • 12 stakes, 4 districts
  • 109 congregations (71 wards, 38 branches)
  • Managua Nicaragua Temple (under construction, announced in 2018)

5.  Paraguay

  • 100,121 members
  • 11 stakes, 9 districts
  • 133 congregations (62 wards, 71 branches)
  • Asunción Paraguay Temple (dedicated in 2002)

6. Cote d'Ivoire

  • 63,058 members
  • 20 stakes, 12 districts
  • 262 congregations (154 wards, 108 branches)
  • Abidjan Ivory Coast Temple (under construction, announced in 2015)

7.  Panama

  • 61,980 members
  • 7 stakes, 4 districts
  • 75 congregations (43 wards, 32 branches)
  • Panama City Panama Temple (dedicated in 2008)

8.  Costa Rica

  • 54,473 members
  • 10 stakes, 1 district
  • 80 congregations (60 wards, 20 branches)
  • San José Costa Rica Temple (dedicated in 2000)

9.  Portugal

  • 47,916 members
  • 7 stakes, 1 district
  • 62 congregations (41 wards, 21 branches)
  • Lisbon Portugal Temple (dedicated in 2019)

 10.  Zimbabwe

  • 41,262 members
  • 9 stakes, 1 district
  • 100 congregations (63 wards, 37 branches)
  • Harare Zimbabwe Temple (under construction, announced in 2016)

Some observations about this list.

First, several of these countries appear highly likely to have a second temple announced in the immediate future, including the Dominican Republic (Santiago), El Salvador (Santa Ana), and Cote d'Ivoire (Yamoussoukro). However, most other countries do not appear likely to have a second temple announced for the foreseeable future due to low member activity rates and membership and stakes clustered in the city where a temple already operates, such as in Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. Nevertheless, Zimbabwe (Bulawayo), Portugal (Porto), and Uruguay (a city in central or northern Uruguay) are countries with a moderate likelihood of a second temple announcement.

Second, there are major discrepancies in member activity rates among this list of countries with the most members with only one temple, although most of these countries have very low member activity rates. This is well illustrated by significant differences in the number of stakes and congregations between countries with similarly-sized memberships. For example, the Church in Cote d'Ivoire has 63,058 members organized into 262 congregations, 20 stakes, and 12 districts, whereas the Church in Panama has 61,980 members organized into 75 congregations, 7 stakes, and 4 districts. Countries with higher activity rates are more likely to have a second temple announced before countries with a lower member activity rate. 

Third, the top 10 countries with the most members with only one temple tended to have their first temple dedicated either in the early 2000s or announced/dedicated in the late 2010s. This has correlated with periods of an increase in temple construction.

Fourth, most of these countries (seven) are located in Latin America.

Sunday, April 21, 2024

New Temples Announced in April 2024 Part II: Inside the United States

Yuma Arizona Temple

The Yuma Arizona Temple will be the Church's seventh temple in Arizona following the Mesa Arizona Temple (dedicated in 1927), the Snowflake Arizona Temple (dedicated in 2002), The Gila Valley Arizona Temple (dedicated in 2010), the Gilbert Arizona Temple (dedicated in 2014), the Phoenix Arizona Temple (dedicated in 2014), and the Tuscon Arizona Temple (dedicated in 2017). Thus, the Yuma Arizona Temple is the Church's first temple to be announced in Arizona since President Nelson became president of the Church and since the Church began its period of temple construction expansion. Currently, there is only one stake in Yuma which has seven wards and five branches. However, at one time the Yuma Arizona Stake appeared likely to divide, albeit two wards were discontinued in 2016 followed by another ward more recently. Moreover, the Church used to operate a stake in nearby El Centro, California, although this stake was discontinued in 2023 and the congregations in the former stake were reassigned to the El Cajon California Stake. The new temple will likely service members in the Yuma Arizona Stake (organized in 1958), eastern El Cajon California Stake, the Lake Havasu City Arizona Stake (organized in 1976), the two stakes in Mexicali (organized in 1977 and 1987), and one stake in San Luis Río Colorado (organized in 2009). Thus, although added to my list of less likely locations to have a temple organized in 2022, Yuma was a surprising location for the next new temple to be announced in Arizona, as there are several other locations with more stakes that appeared likely to have a temple announced (e.g., Queen Creek, Goodyear, Flagstaff). The Church reported 442,879 Latter-day Saints in Arizona as of year-end 2023. Yuma is currently assigned to the San Diego California Temple. Arizona ranked as the state with the 38th most rapid membership growth in 2023 at 0.79%.

Houston Texas South Temple

The Houston Texas South Temple is the Church's ninth temple in Texas and its second temple in the Houston metropolitan area. Other temples in Texas include the Dallas Texas Temple (dedicated in 1984), the Houston Texas Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Lubbock Texas Temple (dedicated in 2002), the San Antonio Texas Temple (dedicated in 2005), the McAllen Texas Temple (dedicated in 2023), the Fort Worth Texas Temple (announced in 2021), the Austin Texas Temple (announced in April 2022), and the McKinney Texas Temple (announced in October 2022). The new temple will likely service 8-10 stakes in southern Houston and surrounding areas. The current Houston Texas Temple district has 22 stakes. The southern Houston area has generally experienced slow, but steady, growth within the past couple decades, whereas the Church has reported generally rapid growth in northern areas of the Houston metropolitan area. The Church reported 385,600 Latter-day Saints in Texas as of year-end 2023. South Houston was added to the list of less likely locations to have a temple announced in February 2023. Texas was ranked as the state with the 15th most rapid membership growth in 2023 at 1.93%.

Des Moines Iowa Temple

The Des Moines Iowa Temple is the Church's first temple to be announced for Iowa. Prior to the announcement, Iowa was the state with the second most Latter-day Saints without a temple, as there were 29,285 members as of year-end 2023. Church membership grew by 2.05% in 2023 - the highest seen since 2015. Iowa ranked as the state with the 13th most rapid membership growth in 2023. Overall, the Church in Iowa has reported slow to moderate growth rates for the past 2-3 decades. The most recently organized stake was the Des Moines Iowa Mount Pisgah Stake which was organized in 2016. There are three stakes in the greater Des Moines metropolitan area (one of which is in Ames and organized in 1995). The first stake in Des Moines was created in 1970. The new temple will likely have five stakes assigned to the temple district (two of which are in eastern Iowa in Cedar Rapids and Iowa City). Stakes in the Des Moines area are assigned to the Winter Quarters Nebraska Temple, whereas stakes in eastern Iowa are assigned to the Nauvoo Illinois Temple.

Cincinnati Ohio Temple

The Cincinnati Ohio Temple is the Church's third temple in Ohio following the Columbus Ohio Temple (dedicated in 1999) and the Cleveland Ohio Temple (announced in April 2022). The first temple dedicated in the Church in this dispensation was in Kirtland, Ohio, which was recently reacquired by the Community of Christ, although this temple was never a fully functioning temple like other temples in the Church today. The temple in Cincinnati will likely have at six stakes assigned from Cincinnati (3) and Dayton (3). The first stake in Cincinnati was organized in 1958 (followed by two more stakes in 1985 and 2004), whereas the first stake in Dayton was organized in 1970 (followed by two more stakes in 1979 and 2021). The Church has experienced slow, but steady, growth in the Cincinnati and Dayton areas. The Church recently acquired property in the northern Cincinnati metropolitan area that appears to be a likely site for the new temple. Stakes in the Cincinnati area are assigned to the Columbus Ohio Temple (which currently has 18 stakes assigned) and the Louisville Kentucky Temple (which currently has nine stakes assigned). Ohio ranked as 29th for membership growth in 2023 (1.22%). Cincinnati was added to the list of less likely locations to have a temple announced in September 2022.

Honolulu Hawaii Temple

The Honolulu Hawaii Temple is the Church's fourth temple in Hawaii following the Laie Hawaii Temple (dedicated in 1919), the Kona Hawaii Temple (dedicated in 2000), and the Kahului Hawaii Temple (announced in October 2023). Except for the North Island of New Zealand, Oahu is the first island in Polynesia to have a second temple announced. Honolulu is the only location I added in March 2024 to the list of less likely locations to have a temple announced that had a temple announced this past conference. The reason why I added Honolulu to the list was due to greater accessibility to the temple where half of the island's Latter-day Saints reside. Also, a temple in Honolulu would permit the temple in Laie to just serve the stakes in Laie and BYU-Hawaii. The new temple will likely service six stakes in southern Oahu, which would leave five stakes assigned to the Laie Hawaii temple (all of which are located in Laie). The first stake in Honolulu was organized in 1955, whereas the first stake in Laie was organized in 1935. Slow to stagnant growth has occurred on Oahu within the past couple decades. Hawaii ranked as the state with the 37th most rapid membership growth rate in 2023 (0.91%), and this percentage growth rate for 2023 was the highest seen in Hawaii in nearly a decade. The most recently organized stake on Oahu was at BYU-Hawaii in 2004.

West Jordan Utah Temple

The West Jordan Utah Temple will be the Church's 29th temple in Utah following the St. George Utah Temple (announced in 1871, dedicated in 1877), the Logan Utah Temple (announced in 1876, dedicated in 1884), the Manti Utah Temple (announced in 1875, dedicated in 1888), the Salt Lake Temple (announced in 1847, dedicated in 1893), the Ogden Utah Temple (announced in 1967, dedicated in 1972), the Provo Utah Temple (announced in 1967, dedicated in 1972), the Jordan River Utah Temple (announced in 1978, dedicated in 1981), the Bountiful Utah Temple (announced in 1990, dedicated in 1995), the Mount Timpanogos Utah Temple (announced in 1992, dedicated in 1996), the Vernal Utah Temple (announced in 1994, dedicated in 1997), the Monticello Utah Temple (announced in 1997, dedicated in 1998), the Draper Utah Temple (announced in 2004, dedicated in 2009), the Oquirrh Mountain Utah Temple (announced in 2005, dedicated in 2009), the Brigham City Utah Temple (announced in 2009, dedicated in 2012), the Payson Utah Temple (announced in 2010, dedicated in 2015), the Provo City Center Temple (announced in 2011, dedicated in 2016), Cedar City Utah Temple (announced in 2013, dedicated in 2017), the Saratoga Springs Utah Temple (announced in 2017, dedicated in 2023), the Layton Utah Temple (announced in 2018, scheduled for dedication in 2024), the Red Cliffs Utah Temple (announced in 2018, dedicated in 2024), the Deseret Peak Utah Temple (announced in 2019), the Orem Utah Temple (announced in 2019, scheduled for dedication in 2024), the Taylorsville Utah Temple (announced in 2019, scheduled for dedication in 2024), the Syracuse Utah Temple (announced in 2020), the Lindon Utah Temple (announced in 2020), the Smithfield Utah Temple (announced in 2021), the Ephraim Utah Temple (announced in 2021), and the Heber City Utah Temple (announced in 2021). West Jordan was the only temple that was not officially on my list of likely temples to be announced, although it is very close to where I predicted a temple that was not announced (the Cottonwood Heights/Holladay/Sandy area). I was also surprised that this temple was announced instead of the long anticipated temple in the Herriman area where the Church acquired land approximately 15-20 years ago. The new temple will likely be within five miles of each of the three nearest temples in the area, including the Oquirrh Mountain Utah Temple (43 stakes in temple district), the Jordan River Utah Temple (62 stakes in temple district - many of which will be reassigned to the new Taylorsville Utah Temple), and the Taylorsville Utah Temple (anticipated to have 37 stakes in temple district). The decision to announce the new temple has followed the pattern of having large Utah temples to have 20-25 stakes per temple district at a minimum. The new temple will likely have 20-30 stakes assigned depending on how the temple district boundaries are drawn. The first stake organized in West Jordan was created in 1927.

Lehi Utah Temple

The Lehi Utah Temple will be the Church's 30th temple in Utah. The Church has reported rapid growth in the Lehi area within the past two decades, as scores of new stakes have been organized in Lehi and surrounding cities in north Utah County. Lehi has been a location listed on my temple predictions map as a more likely location to have a temple announced for many years. The new temple will likely have 20-30 stakes assigned to the temple district. Stakes in the Lehi area are currently assigned to the Saratoga Springs Utah Temple (34 stakes assigned) and the Mount Timpanogos Utah Temple (42 stakes assigned). The first stake created in Lehi was organized in 1928. Utah ranked as 39th for membership growth rates by state in 2023 at 0.78%, which was at nearly the same percentage as for the year 2019 (0.79%). With 635 stakes in Utah at present, the average temple will now have 21.2 stakes assigned to each temple district.

Thursday, April 18, 2024

Updating Country Statistical Profiles on Cumorah.com

I will be updating the country profiles on cumorah.com in the coming weeks. Click here to access the updated profile for Angola with statistics through 2023.

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

UPDATED: List of the Countries with the Most Members without a Stake - April 2024 Edition

Below is an updated list of the countries with the most Latter-day Saints without a stake. Membership totals are as of 2023 and congregational and district totals are current. Estimated membership for mainland China and Pakistan is provided as official statistics are unavailable. The number of branches in mainland China is not provided due to the sensitive nature of the Church in that country. Previous lists of the countries with the most members without a stake can be found here.

  1. China - 12,500 members? - 12 districts
  2. Malaysia - 11,086 members - 24 branches - 5 districts
  3. Guyana - 6,834 members - 12 branches - 2 districts
  4. Pakistan - 6,000 members? - 15 branches, 4 districts
  5. Belize - 5,631 members - 12 branches - 2 districts
  6. Malawi - 4,776 members - 13 branches - 2 districts
  7. Tanzania - 3,969 members - 27 branches - 4 districts
  8. Armenia - 3,572 members - 7 branches - 1 district
  9. Romania - 3,103 members - 15 branches - 1 district
  10. Cameroon - 3,071 members - 16 branches - 2 districts
  11. Bulgaria - 2,414 members - 7 branches - 1 district
  12. Eswatini - 2,253 members - 6 branches - 1 district
  13. Ethiopia - 2,193 members - 8 branches - 1 district
  14. Poland - 2,178 members - 11 branches - 1 district
  15. Cook Islands - 1,888 members - 5 branches - 1 district
  16. Suriname - 1,848 members - 6 branches - 1 district
  17. Sri Lanka - 1,674 members - 5 branches - 1 district
  18. Lesotho - 1,562 members - 6 branches - 1 district 
  19. Burundi - 1,541 members - 6 branches - 1 district
  20. Rwanda - 1,537 members - 9 branches -1  district

As noted in the list from 2023, prospects appear most favorable for the formation of stakes within the next few years in mainland China, Malaysia, Guyana, Belize, Pakistan, Eswatini, and Cameroon as all of these countries have at least one district that is close to reaching the minimum qualifications for a stake to operate. However, additional countries also now appear likely to have stakes organized in the next 1-2 years, including Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and Suriname. As noted in previous posts, low member activity rates, an insufficient number of branches in individual member districts, slow or stagnant growth, and few full-tithe paying Melchizedek Priesthood holders will likely continue to delay the organization of stakes in other countries for several more years to come.

Monday, April 15, 2024

UPDATED: The 10 Countries with the Most Members without a Temple Announced, Under Construction, or in Operation - April 2024

I have updated the list of the countries with the most members without a temple using year-end 2023 membership totals. Temples that service stakes, districts, and mission branches in each country are identified. Previous lists are also available for May 2023, April 2022, March 2022, November 2020, April 2020, April 2019, October 2018, April 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2013, mid-2011, late 2008, and late 2007. Countries in Italics do not have a stake. Mongolia was removed from this list given the announcement of the Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Temple in October of 2023. Zambia has since ascended to the list to replace Mongolia. Benin is the country on the list with the most recent Church establishment. The first branch created in Benin was organized in 2005. Countries that may ascend to this list in the coming months and years include (in order) Malawi, Botswana, Ireland, Tanzania, Armenia, Trinidad and Tobago, Albania, Romania, Cameroon, the Czech Republic, and New Caledonia.

 1. Uganda

  • 22,318 members
  • 3 stakes, 3 districts
  • 43 congregations (18 wards, 25 branches)
  • Johannesburg South Africa Temple (Nairobi Kenya Temple under construction)
2. Malaysia
  • 11,086 members
  • 0 stakes, 5 districts
  • 24 congregations (24 branches)
  • Hong Kong China Temple (Singapore Republic of Singapore Temple announced)

3.  Togo

  • 7,141 members
  • 3 stakes
  • 26 congregations (19 wards, 7 branches)
  • Ghana Accra Temple

4.  Jamaica

  • 6,846 members
  • 1 stake, 1 district
  • 18 congregations (6 wards, 12 branches)
  • Port-au-Prince Haiti Temple

5.  Guyana

  • 6,834 members
  • 0 stakes, 2 districts
  • 12 congregations (12 branches)
  • Caracas Venezuela Temple

6. Marshall Islands

  • 6,762 members
  • 2 stakes
  • 13 congregations (12 wards, 1 branch)
  • Suva Fiji Temple (Tarawa Kiribati Temple announced)

7.  Benin

  • 6,140 members
  • 2 stakes, 1 district
  • 30 congregations (21 wards, 9 branches)
  • Accra Ghana Temple (Lagos Nigeria Temple announced)

8.  Federated States of Micronesia

  • 5,940 members
  • 1 stake, 1 district
  • 22 congregations (5 wards, 17 branches)
  • Yigo Guam Temple 

9.  Zambia

  • 5,906 members
  • 1 stake, 2 districts
  • 17 congregations (6 wards, 11 branches)
  • Johannesburg South Africa Temple (Harare Zimbabwe Temple under construction)

 10.  Belize

  • 5,631 members
  • 2 districts
  • 12 congregations (12 branches)
  • Guatemala City Guatemala Temple (Coban Guatemala Temple scheduled for dedication)

Sunday, April 14, 2024

New Temples Announced in April 2024 Part I: Outside the United States

Uturoa French Polynesia Temple 

The Uturoa French Polynesia Temple will be the Church's second temple in French Polynesia following the Papeete Tahiti Temple. Uturoa (population: 3,663) is a village located on Raiatea - one of the islands in the western Society Islands (Leeward Islands). Only two stakes appear likely to be assigned to the new temple which were organized in 1993 (Raromatai Tahiti Stake) and 2018 (Bora Bora Tahiti Stake). Slow, but steady, growth has occurred on the islands that are likely to be assigned to the new temple. I added Raiatea to the list of less likely locations to have a temple announced in September 2019. As of year-end 2023, there were 29,700 members in French Polynesia. Currently the two stakes in Raromatai and Bora Bora are assigned to the Papeete Tahiti Temple. Islands likely to be assigned to the new temple have a combined population of 36,000 people.

Chihuahua Mexico Temple

The Chihuahua Mexico Temple will be the Church's third temple in Chihuahua State, Mexico, and the 25th temple in Mexico following the Mexico City Mexico Temple (dedicated in 1983), the Colonia Juárez Chihuahua Mexico Temple (dedicated in 1999), the Ciudad Juárez Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Hermosillo Sonora Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Oaxaca Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Tuxtla Gutiérrez Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Tampico Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Villahermosa Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Mérida Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Veracruz Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Guadalajara Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2001), the Monterrey Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2002), the Tijuana Mexico Temple (dedicated in 2015), the Puebla Mexico Temple (announced in 2018), the Querétaro Mexico Temple (announced in April 2021), the Torreón Mexico Temple (announced in April 2021), the Culiacán Mexico Temple (announced in October 2021), the San Luis Potosí Mexico Temple (announced in April 2022), the Mexico City Benemérito Mexico Temple (announced in April 2022), the Cuernavaca Mexico Temple (announced October 2022), the Pachuca Mexico Temple (announced October 2022), the Toluca Mexico Temple (announced October 2022), the Tula Mexico Temple (announced October 2022), and the Cancún México Temple (announced October 2023). I added Chihuahua to my list of less likely locations to have a temple announced in September 2019. The new temple will likely service four stakes and three districts in southern Chihuahua State. There are three stakes in the city of Chihuahua that were organized in 1976, 1987, and 1989. Church growth rates in Mexico have dramatically decreased within the past decade, albeit the Church has begun to experience steady net increases in the number of ward and branches again within the past couple years. There were 1,516,406 Latter-day Saints in Mexico as of year-end 2023. Currently, stakes in southern Chihuahua State are assigned to the Ciudad Juarez Mexico Temple, whereas the three districts are assigned to the Colonia Juarez Mexico Temple. The Church organized the Mexico Chihuahua Mission in 1988.

Florianópolis Brazil Temple

The Florianópolis Brazil Temple will be the Church's 23rd temple in Brazil following the São Paulo Brazil Temple (dedicated in 1978), the Recife Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Porto Alegre Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Campinas Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2002), the Curitiba Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2008), the Manaus Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2012), the Fortaleza Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2019), the Rio de Janeiro Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2022), the Belem Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2022), the Brasília Brazil Temple (dedicated in 2023), the Salvador Brazil Temple (announced in 2018), the São Paulo Brazil East Temple (announced in 2020), the Belo Horizonte Brazil Temple (announced in April 2021), the Vitória Brazil Temple (announced in October 2021), the Maceió Brazil Temple (announced in April 2022), the Santos Brazil Temple (announced in April 2022), the Londrina Brazil Temple (announced in October 2022), the Riberão Prêto Brazil Temple (announced in October 2022), the Teresina Brazil Temple (announced in April 2023), the Natal Brazil Temple (announced in April 2023), the Goiânia Brazil Temple (announced in October 2023), and the João Pessoa Brazil Temple (announced in October 2023). The Florianópolis/São José metropolitan area has been on my list of more likely temples to be announced for many years, as Florianópolis/São José is the most populous metropolitan area in Santa Catarina State (which was the Brazilian state with the most stakes without a temple prior to the temple announcement). The first stake in Florianópolis was organized in 1985, and two more stakes were later organized in the metropolitan area in 1993 and 2021 (although a previous stake once operated in Monte Cristo on the north side of the metropolitan area from 1993 until it was discontinued in 2001). Currently there are 11 stakes in Santa Catarina State - all of which appear likely to be assigned to the new temple. One district may also be assigned to the new temple (the União da Vitória Brazil District). The Church has experienced significant growth in Santa Catarina State within the past decade, as five stakes have been organized since 2013. Stakes and districts in Santa Catarina State have been assigned to the Curitiba Brazil Temple and the Porto Alegre Brazil Temple. The Church reported 1,494,571 Latter-day Saints in Brazil as of year-end 2023. The Church organized the Brazil Florianópolis Mission in 1993.

Rosario Argentina Temple

The Rosario Argentina Temple will be the Church's seventh temple in Argentina following the Buenos Aires Argentina Temple (dedicated in 1986), the Córdoba Argentina Temple (dedicated in 2015), the Salta Argentina Temple (announced in April 2018), the Mendoza Argentina Temple (announced in October 2018), the Bahía Blanca Argentina Temple (announced in 2020), and the Buenos Aires City Center Argentina Temple (announced in October 2022). The new temple will likely service 8-9 stakes and 4-6 districts in Rosario, Santa Fe, and surrounding areas. The Church has experienced slow growth in this area of Argentina. There are three stakes in Rosario that were organized in 1974, 1980, and 1995. The Church reported 481,518 Latter-day Saints in Argentina as of year-end 2023. The Argentina Rosario Mission was organized in 1972. Stakes in Rosario are currently assigned to the Buenos Aires Argentina Temple, whereas stakes in Santa Fe are assigned to the Córdoba Argentina Temple.

Edinburgh Scotland Temple

The Edinburgh Scotland Temple will be the Church's first temple in Scotland and fourth temple in the United Kingdom following the London England Temple (dedicated in 1958), the Preston England Temple (dedicated in 1998), and the Birmingham England Temple (announced in April 2022). The new temple will likely service the five stakes in Scotland and the one stake in Northern Ireland. Stakes in Scotland and Northern Ireland currently pertain to the Preston England Temple district. The Church operates one stake in Edinburgh that was organized in 1980. However, the oldest stake in Scotland was created in Glasgow in 1962. The Church has reported stagnant membership growth in Scotland for many years. Scotland has ranked among likely locations to have a temple announced for many years due to its sizable membership and distance from the nearest temple in Preston, England. Some of the lowest member activity rates in the British Islands has appeared to have contributed to the delay of a temple announcement for Scotland. Scotland has experienced a decline in the number of wards and branches over the past couple decades. The Scotland/Ireland Mission was organized in 1961. The mission originally only included Scotland, but Ireland was added when the Ireland Dublin Mission was discontinued in 2010. The Church reported 186,350 members in the United Kingdom in 2023. The Church reported approximately 23,000 Latter-day Saints in Scotland as of 2017, whereas there were approximately 26,000 Latter-day Saints in Scotland for most of the 1990s and 2000s.

Brisbane Australia South Temple

The Brisbane Australia South Temple will be the Church's sixth temple in Australia following the completion of the Sydney Australia Temple (dedicated in 1984), the Adelaide Australia Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Melbourne Australia Temple (dedicated in 2000), the Perth Australia Temple (dedicated in 2001), and the Brisbane Australia Temple (dedicated in 2003). The new temple will be the first time that the Church has announced a second temple for a single metropolitan area in Oceania. Although Brisbane is the location of the most recently dedicated temple in Australia, the city has experienced tremendous growth within the past two decades in regard to the number of stakes and congregations. There are now 12 stakes in the greater Brisbane area stretching from the Sunshine Coast in the north to the Gold Coast in the south. The Brisbane Australia Temple is located in the heart of downtown Brisbane and services all stakes in Queensland. The new temple will likely service approximately 6-8 stakes in southern Brisbane and the Gold Coast areas. The first stake in Brisbane was organized in 1960, whereas the most recently organized stake in the area was the Brisbane Australia Beenleigh Stake in 2018. The Australia Brisbane Mission was organized in 1973. There were 157,079 Latter-day Saints in Australia as of year-end 2023. Slow membership and congregational growth has recently occurred in the Brisbane area.

Victoria British Columbia Temple

The Victoria British Columbia Temple will be the Church's second temple in British Columbia following the Vancouver British Columbia Temple (dedicated in 2010) and the 11th temple in Canada. The new temple will likely service only two stakes - both of which are located on Vancouver Island. The Victoria British Columbia Stake was organized in 1975, whereas the Nanaimo British Columbia Stake was organized in 1997. Both stakes are assigned to the Vancouver British Columbia Temple and are small in terms of the number of congregations. Although no wards or branches have been discontinued on Vancouver Island within the past 15 or so years, there has been only one branch organized during this time. The Church reported 31,171 members in British Columbia as of year-end 2023. There were 203,339 Latter-day Saints in Canada as of year-end 2023. Church membership increased by 1.25% in 2023 - the highest annual membership growth rate seen since 2012.

Maracaibo Venezuela Temple

The Maracaibo Venezuela Temple will be the Church's second temple in Venezuela following the dedication of the Caracas Venezuela Temple in 2000. Maracaibo has been on my list of the most likely cities to have a temple announced for many years, and Venezuela was the country with the most Latter-day Saints with only one temple prior to the new temple announcement. Former Church President Gordon B. Hinckley proposed a temple in Maracaibo in 1999. There are five stakes in the immediate Maracaibo area (the first stake was organized in 1980), and there are two more stakes in nearby cities. Stakes in the area have had many wards discontinued in the past decade due to active members moving away from Venezuela, and unless members return or large numbers of converts are baptized and retained, multiple stakes will likely consolidate in the near future. The Church opened the Venezuela Maracaibo Mission in 1979. Altogether, the new temple will likely service 12 stakes and three districts. The Church reported 176,623 members in Venezuela as of year-end 2023. This summer, Venezuela will also transfer to the Caribbean area from the South America Northwest Area. All stakes in Venezuela are currently assigned to the Caracas Venezuela Temple.

Saturday, April 13, 2024

Congregational Growth by Country in 2023

Below is a list of the countries where the Church reported a net increase of four or more units for the year 2023. The annual percentage increase for the number of wards and branches for each country is also provided:

  1. Nigeria +41 (5.33% increase)
  2. Philippines +24 (1.89% increase)
  3. Democratic Republic of the Congo +20 (7.43% increase)
  4. Ghana +17 (4.82% increase)
  5. Mexico +13 (0.70% increase)
  6. Mozambique +13 (23.2% increase) 
  7. Kenya +12 (21.1% increase)
  8. Ecuador +10 (3.15% increase)
  9. Zimbabwe +9 (9.89% increase) 
  10. Liberia +8 (11.9% increase) 
  11. Angola +6 (31.6% increase) 
  12. Benin +6 (30.0% increase)
  13. Cote d'Ivoire +5 (1.95% increase)
  14. Peru +5 (0.64% increase)
  15. Republic of the Congo +4 (12.5% increase) 
  16. Sierra Leone +4 (4.44% increase) 
The net increase in the number of wards and branches in these 16 countries totals 197; a larger number than the net increase in the number of wards and branches for the entire Church for 2023 (160). Seven countries experienced a net decrease of four or more units during 2023. Altogether, the net decrease in congregations in these four nations totaled 64. 
  1. United States -21 (0.14% decrease)  
  2. Russia -12 (17.4% decrease)  
  3. United Kingdom -10 (3.15% decrease) 
  4. Hong Kong -9 (25.7% decrease)
  5. Canada -4 (0.81% decrease)
  6. Brazil -4 (0.18% decrease)
  7. Australia -4 (1.29% decrease)

Previous lists for annual congregational growth by country are available for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020-2021, and 2022.

A few observations to make about congregational growth in 2023.

First, the rate at which the number of congregations increases continues to lag behind membership growth rates for the worldwide Church - a trend that has continued year over year since 1998. The average ward or branch now has 548 members, whereas the average ward or branch had 405 members in 1998. This metric suggests that the Church has continued to experience compounding problems with low member activity rates in countries that have the most Latter-day Saints on the Church records. Generally, equal percentage growth rates for the number of total congregations and Church membership suggest that member activity rates are stable. This metric is not a perfect barometer for member activity rates. For example, this statistic does not track the progress of branches growing sufficiently to become wards, as wards require significantly more active members to operate than a branch. Also, this metric may make a country look like it is having improving member activity rates if many new branches are organized in cities with few members. Like any missiology statistics, they should be examined with several others to get a more accurate assessment of the health of the Church and growth trends. 

Second, the United States has now had two years in a row when it ranked as the country with the largest net decrease in congregations for the entire world - a distinction never led by the Church in the United States prior to 2021. The Church in the United States reported a net increase of 105,774 members between year-end 2021 and year-end 2023, yet the Church reported a net decline of 83 congregations during this two-year period. This resulted in a net increase of 10 members for the average ward or branch during this time frame. Although this may appear alarming and suggest a decreasing rate of member activity and/or convert retention during this period, the Church reported a loss of seven members per average ward or branch between 2018 and 2021. Thus, the average number of members per ward or branch as of year-end 2023 (471) was not significantly different than what it was in 2018 (468). Furthermore, the net loss of congregations in the United States in 2023 (21) was nearly one-third the net loss of congregations in the United States in 2022 (62). In sum, there is no evidence from examining these statistics that the Church in the United States has experienced worsening member activity or convert retention rates within the past decade given the stability in the members-to-congregations ratio. Moreover, the number of stakes in the United States continues increase year over year. The Church reported 1,642 stakes in 2019, 1,658 stakes in 2020, 1,671 stakes in 2021, 1,681 stakes in 2022, and 1,693 stakes in 2023. 

Third, most new congregations created in the Church were in Africa in 2023. This has been a longstanding trend for much of the past decade. The Church in the Philippines continues to experience steady congregational growth rates comparable to membership growth rates. Congregational growth rates have accelerated in a few Latin American countries, such as Ecuador and Mexico. However, the Church reported a net decrease in the number of congregations in Brazil. Typically, the Church in Brazil reports net increases in the number of congregations year over year.

Wednesday, April 10, 2024

Country-by-Country Membership Statistics Released for 2023; Membership Growth in the United States Highest Since 2015

The Church has released year-end 2023 membership and congregation totals for most nations with a reported Church presence. These statistics can be accessed on Church's official website at https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/facts-and-statistics.

Countries with the highest annual membership growth rates for 2023 are listed below. Lists for nations with the most rapid annual membership growth rates are also available for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022. A list of the biennial membership growth rates for countries between year-end 2019 to year-end 2021 can be found here. The percentage next to the country name for the list below is the annual membership growth rate for 2023. Countries in bold experienced a membership increase greater than 200 during 2023.

  1. Mozambique - 34.1% -24,733
  2. Rwanda - 33.2% - 1,537
  3. Tanzania - 32.3% - 3,969
  4. Burundi - 24.3% - 1,541
  5. Angola - 23.9% - 5,898
  6. Malawi - 23.4% - 4,776
  7. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 13.0% - 78
  8. Cameroon - 12.9% - 3,071
  9. DR Congo - 11.8% - 115,027
  10. Zambia - 11.2% - 5,906
  11. Solomon Islands - 10.8% - 1,524
  12. Kenya - 10.1% - 19,206
  13. Republic of the Congo - 10.0% - 12,626

The following is a list of the top 10 countries with the highest negative membership growth rates (i.e., fastest rate of membership decline) during 2023. The percent growth rate is provided next to the country name, and the number to the right of the percentage growth rate is the year-end 2023 membership total for the country. Only three of these countries had at least 1,000 members: Ukraine, Guam, and Estonia.

  1. Kazakhstan - -4.80% - 218
  2. Montenegro - -3.13% - 31
  3. Ukraine - -2.81% - 10,053
  4. Sint Maarten - -2.74% - 284
  5. Israel - -2.66% - 329
  6. Jersey - -2.48% - 275
  7. Estonia - -1.83% - 1,125
  8. Guernsey - -1.67% - 59
  9. Guam - -1.41% - 2,511
  10. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines - -1.24% - 717

Below is a list of the top 10 countries by numerical membership net increase for 2023. Each country is provided with the numerical national increase in membership for the year. Additionally, the percentage of total church membership increase that is accounted for by each country is provided (i.e., a percentage of the world membership increase for 2023 that is within that country). Lists are also available for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022. A list of the biennial period of 2020-2021 is also available. 70.9% of the 2022 net increase in Church membership can be attributed to the following 10 nations. 

  1. United States - 64,765 - 29.1%
  2. Brazil - 22,050 - 9.9%
  3. Philippines - 14,017 - 6.3%
  4. DR Congo - 12,165 - 5.5%
  5. Nigeria - 11,482 - 5.2%
  6. Mexico - 8,686 - 3.9%
  7. Peru - 7,081 - 3.2%
  8. Argentina - 6,533 - 2.9%
  9. Mozambique - 6,290 - 2.8%
  10. Ghana - 4,964 - 2.2%

Below is a list of the top four countries by numerical membership decrease for 2023. Each country is provided with the numerical national decrease in membership during the year 2023. There were only four countries that experienced a net decrease by 100 or more during 2023. 

  1. United Kingdom - -583
  2. Ukraine - -291
  3. Tonga - -196
  4. Japan - -155

Several points to make with the 2023 annual membership growth numbers.

First, the Church continues to experience rapid, unprecedented growth in East Africa - a region of Africa that has been historically underserved with resources with enormous populations and where the Church has generally reported slow or moderate growth despite a Church presence in most nations for decades. All four of the countries with the most rapid membership growth rates in 2023 were in East Africa. Church membership in Tanzania has more than doubled within the past four years to approximately 4,000. In Mozambique, there was a net increase of 6,290 just in 2023 - a remarkable number considering there were only 18,443 Latter-day Saints at the beginning of the year. Rwanda and Burundi remain near the top of the list. Like Tanzania, Church membership in Rwanda and Burundi has doubled within the past four years. The creation of the Africa Central Area in 2020, combined with more aggressive national outreach expansion efforts by mission leadership and using Swahili and local languages for Church meetings and in proselytism, such as Kinyarwanda, appear to have contributed to this acceleration in growth. 

Second, the Church continues to maintain rapid growth in Central Africa, particularly in the DR Congo where membership has surpassed 100,000 and annual membership growth rates remain higher than 10%. The Church in Angola has continued to experience rapid growth, with membership doubling within the past five years to approximately 5,900.

Third, annual membership growth rates have slowed in West Africa - the area of Africa that generally experienced the most rapid membership growth rates in the 2010s. There were no countries in West Africa (with published membership statistics) that experienced an annual membership growth rate of 10% or more during 2023. In contrast, the Church in most West African nations experienced membership growth rates greater than 10% during most years in the 2010s. Togo and Benin are at the top of the list, with membership growth rates of 9.9% and 9.5% in 2023, respectively. Membership growth rates remained significant, albeit less impressive than in the 2010s, for Sierra Leone (7.7%), but were substantially lower for Liberia (5.4%), Nigeria (5.2%), Ghana (4.9%), and Cote d'Ivoire (4.8%). The Church in West Africa in the past 1-2 years has opened far fewer previously unreached cities, towns, and villages to missionary work and organized few congregations than in many of the years in the 2010s when hundreds of locations in West Africa had branches organized for the first time. Mission leaders in West Africa have generally reported an emphasis on improving the quality of prebaptismal teaching, which has resulted in fewer convert baptisms (or at least not accelerating rates of convert baptisms), particularly in locations where there have been more frequent instances of struggling congregations (which has appeared to be due to disrupted church operations and missionary work from the COVID-19 pandemic such as in some areas of Ghana). Even then, missions such as the Liberia Monrovia Mission, have reported a renewed emphasis on quality over quantity for convert baptism goals, and this has resulted in a substantial decrease in the numbers of converts baptized.

Fourth, the Church in the United States reported the highest net increase in membership (64,765) since 2015 and the highest annual membership growth rate (0.95%) since 2015. In contrast, the net increase in Church membership for the United States generally ranged from 39,000-42,000 between 2018 and 2022 (and it was only 41,987 for the two-year period from year-end 2019 to year-end 2021). It is unclear what has driven an increase of more than 20,000 for 2023 compared to the annual average for the several previous years. Some possibilities include fewer deaths, larger numbers of convert baptisms, larger numbers of new children of record, higher rates of children of record being baptized at age 8, and fewer incidents of name removal or excommunication (loss of membership), although I do not have enough information to determine whether it is primarily one variable or a combination of these variables that is responsible for this development. 

Fifth, of the 159 countries/territories with reported membership figures for 2023, 61 experienced near-zero growth (less than 1%) or negative membership growth rates. However, there were only four countries where membership decreased by more than 100 for the year. Most of these nations were in Europe, developed countries in Asia, and the Caribbean.

Sunday, April 7, 2024

15 New Temples Announced

Today, President Russell M. Nelson announced plans to construct 15 new temples in each of the following locations:

  • Uturoa, French Polynesia
  • Chihuahua, Mexico
  • Florianópolis, Brazil
  • Rosario, Argentina
  • Edinburgh, Scotland
  • Brisbane, Australia (south area)
  • Victoria, British Columbia
  • Yuma, Arizona
  • Houston, Texas (south area)
  • Des Moines, Iowa
  • Cincinnati, Ohio
  • Honolulu, Hawaii
  • West Jordan, Utah
  • Lehi, Utah
  • Maracaibo, Venezuela

With today's announcement, there are now 350 temples announced, under construction, or dedicated. Moreover, the number of temples planned or dedicated has doubled since 2016 when four temples were announced in April.

Saturday, April 6, 2024

2023 Statisical Report

This afternoon, the Church reported its Annual statistical report as of December 31st, 2023.

  • Membership: 17,255,394 (increase of 252,933 from 2022; a 1.49% annual increase)
  • Congregations: 31,490 (increase of 160 from 2022; a 0.51% annual increase)
  • Stakes: 3,565 (increase of 44 from 2022; a 1.25% annual increase)
  • Districts: 489 (decrease of 28 from 2022; a 5.41% annual decrease)
  • Missions: 414 (increase of 3 from 2022; a 0.73% annual increase)
  • Convert Baptisms: 251,763 (increase of 39,591 from 2022; an 18.6% annual increase)
  • Increase of Children on Record: 93,594 (increase of 4,535 from 2022; a 5.09% annual increase)
  • Full-time Teaching Missionaries: 67,871 (increase of 5,327 from 2022; an 8.52% annual increase)
  • Senior Service Missionaries: 27,801 (increase of 731 from 2022; a 2.70% annual increase)
  • Young Service Missionaries: 3,884 (increase of 1,148 from 2022; a 42.0% annual increase)

Several observations regarding the 2023 Statistical Report:

First, annual membership increased by the highest rate since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, at 1.49% (membership increased by 1.54% in 2019). Moreover, the annual rate of membership growth was also greater than for each of the two years prior 2019 (1.48% in 2017, 1.21% in 2018). The summation of new children of record and converts baptized in 2023 was 345,357 - the highest number since 2016. The difference between the summation of new children of record and converts baptized and the actual increase in church membership for 2023 was 92,424 - the lowest number since 2019. Thus, the number of members removed from Church records due to death, resignation, excommunication (loss of membership), or children not being baptized by age 9 was less than for each of the last several years, and this number ranked near all-time lows within the past decade (which has ranged from approximately 92,000 to 140,000).

Second, there was a significant increase in the number of converts baptized in 2023 - the highest number seen since 2015. The percentage increase in new converts baptized in 2023 versus 2022 was 18.6%. Teaching missionaries are baptizing a larger number of converts per missionary now, as the number of teaching missionaries serving increased by only 8.52%. Although this is a positive development for what has been seen within the past decade for convert baptism trends, these numbers remain tens of thousands below the all-time highs of convert baptisms reached in the late 1980s and the 1990s when there were several years of more than 300,000 converts baptized (1990 was the year with the all-time high of 330,877 converts baptized). Nevertheless, it is also important to note that these record years of the most converts baptized had a preponderance of converts baptized with minimal teaching and preparation with high rates of attrition immediately after baptism. Convert retention rates are significantly higher now compared to what they were during these years of the highest numbers of converts baptized.

Third, there was a notable increase (5.09%) in the number of new children added to Church records in 2023 (93,594) compared to 2022 (89,059). This statistic measures the number of unbaptized children, usually infants, who are added to Church records, often after they are blessed and given a name. The number of new children added to Church records in 2023 was the highest reported since 2019 when there was an increase of 94,266 children added to Church records. The Church has struggled for decades to augment the number of children born in the Church and added to the records. The Church reached its all-time high for the most new children of record added more than 40 years ago back in 1982 at 124,000. This is a sobering trend reflecting not only the dramatically decreasing size of Latter-day Saint families in the United States and other developed countries (as well as issues with divorce and young adults not marrying), but it also shows that the Church has struggled to establish full-member families in countries with the highest membership growth rates that often have much higher fertility rates than the United States and other developed nations (such as in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and the Philippines).

Fourth, the number of full-time missionaries serving has continued to significantly increase, including for both teaching missionaries and service missionaries. The number of teaching missionaries serving in 2023 was the highest it has ever been in the Church when the four-year period of the "double cohort" is excluded (as these years included many more members serving missions because of the lowering of the minimum age for missionary service by one year for men and two years for women). The average number of converts baptized per missionary also increased in 2023 to 3.71 - tying with the year 2019 as the year with the most converts baptized per missionary since 2012 (the lowering of the minimum age for missionary service decreased the average number of converts baptized per missionary per year from approximately 5.0 to 3.5). The number of young service missionaries increased by nearly 50% in 2023, albeit these young service missionaries remain a small group (3,884) compared to teaching missionaries (67,871) or senior service missionaries (27,801).

Fifth, the Church reported its most significant percentage decrease in the number of districts (-5.42%) since it began to report the number of districts in the worldwide Church in 1981, and the net decrease in the number of districts for 2023 tied with 1996 as the year with the greatest numerical decrease in the number of districts ever reported (-28). The Church has reported a net decline in the number of districts year over year since 2009. Thus, the number of districts has decreased from 622 as of year-end 2008 to 489 as of year-end 2023. The Church has gone through varying trends with district growth that have corresponded with periods of expansion into previously unreached or lesser-reached areas of the Church, with a period of significant growth from 1987-1994 (expansion in Latin America, the Philippines, and Eastern Europe), a period of decline from 1995 to 2001 (districts maturing into stakes, district consolidations to prepare for stakes), and a period of general stagnation from 2002 to the late 2000s. The significant net decrease in the number of districts in 2023 appeared attributed to consolidating small districts into neighboring stakes or districts, districts maturing into stakes, and few new districts created during the year.

Sixth, the net increase in the number of stakes created in 2023 (44) was the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic, and the net increase in the number of stakes was comparable to 2018 (42) and 2019 (54), albeit the number of stakes discontinued in 2023 (16) was the highest reported since the early 2000s when dozens of stakes were discontinued in Latin America and the Philippines. Eleven (11) of the 16 discontinued stakes in 2023 were in the United States - a country that has typically had few stakes discontinued year to year (usually less than five a year). However, it is important to note that many of these areas with discontinued stakes have for years experienced a decline due to active members moving away with few active members to replace them. 

Seventh, the number of official congregations (i.e., wards and branches) in the Church significantly increased in 2023 when compared to 2022. However, the net increase in the number of official congregations remains approximately half of what was seen at pre-COVID-19 levels. The number of new congregations created in 2023 was less than what was generally seen prior to 2020 for Sub-Saharan Africa which was a major source of new congregations created in the 2010s. Some countries had some significant improvements with net increases in new congregations, such as in Latin America, whereas countries like the United States continue to lag behind what has historically been seen for the rate of new congregations being created.

Trends in mission growth were unremarkable for 2023. However, it is important to note that the Church plans to organize 36 new missions in mid-2024, which would result in 2024 being the year with the second most missions ever created only after 2013 when 58 new missions were created.

Sunday, March 17, 2024

New Stakes Created in Ghana and Utah, Districts Reinstated in Bulgaria and Iceland, Two Stakes Discontinued in Utah

Ghana

A new stake was created in Ghana on March 3rd. The Sofokrom Ghana Stake was organized on March 3rd from the Mpintsin Ghana Stake (organized in 2016) and includes the following six wards and one branch: the Daboase, Essipon, Inchaban, Shama, Sofokrom 1st, and Sofokrom 2nd Wards and the Beposo Branch. There are now three stakes in the Takoradi/Sekondi metropolitan area where the Church will organize a new mission this summer from a division of the Ghana Cape Coast Mission. 

There are now 30 stakes and 11 districts in Ghana.

Utah

A new stake was created in Mapleton, Utah on February 25th. The Mapleton Utah East Stake was organized from a division of the Mapleton Utah North Stake (organized in 1997) which had 14 wards prior to the splitting of the stake. The new stake includes the following seven wards: the Mapleton 2nd, Mapleton 6th, Mapleton 7th, Mapleton 15th, Mapleton 23rd, Mapleton 29th, and the Mapleton 31st Wards. There are now four stakes in Mapleton. The two other stakes in Mapleton were organized in 1975 and 2016, and both of these stakes (Mapleton and Mapleton West) appear likely to divide within the near future as they have 12 wards and 11 wards and one branch, respectively.

Two stakes were also discontinued in Utah. The Midvale Utah East Stake (organized in 1968) and the Midvale Utah North Stake (organized in 1985) were discontinued after many wards have been discontinued in the Midvale area during the past couple of years. Retained wards in the Midvale Utah North Stake were reassigned to the Midvale Utah Stake, whereas retained wards in the Midvale Utah East Stake were reassigned to the Midvale Utah Union Fort Stake and the Midvale Utah Union Park Stake.

There are now 635 stakes and 2 districts in Utah.

Bulgaria

The Sofia Bulgaria District was reinstated on February 18th. The district used to operate from the early 1990s until 2011 when all branches in Bulgaria were reassigned to the Bulgaria Sofia Mission. All seven branches in Bulgaria were assigned to the district, including the Blagoevgrad, the Bourgas, the Plovdiv, the Ruse, the Sofia, the Stara Zagora, and the Varna Branches. The Church in Bulgaria has reported essentially stagnant membership growth for the past decade, and the number of branches in the country has remained unchanged since 2018. Prior to the reinstatement of the Sofia Bulgaria District, Bulgaria was the country with the most members (2,398) without a stake or a district.

Iceland 

The Reykjavik Iceland District was reinstated on February 25th. The district includes all four branches in Iceland, including the Akureyri, the Reykjavik 1st, the Reykjavik 2nd (Spanish), and Selfoss Branches. The district was first organized in the 1980s and discontinued in 2006 when the number of branches in Iceland decreased to one after the closure of the military branch. The Church in Iceland has made a significant turnaround in the past 15 years, with three new branches being organized. However, the district presidency is minimally staffed given few members in the country. There were 382 Latter-day Saints in Iceland as of year-end 2022. Membership has increased by approximately 100 within the past five years. Iceland pertains to the Denmark Copenhagen Mission.

Sunday, March 3, 2024

New Temple Predictions - March 2024 Edition

I have updated my temple prediction map in preparation for General Conference in April. The size of the Church in a specific geographical area (i.e. number of stakes and districts, the number of wards and branches), the age of the oldest stake in a specific geographical area, church growth trends, the distance to the nearest temple, traffic/transportation, the square-footage of the nearest temple, the historical number of weekly endowment sessions scheduled at the nearest temple, and member and missionary reports regarding member activity, temple attendance, and convert retention are variables used to identify prospective sites for future temple announcements. Altogether, there are 208 potential temples on the map (which is 8 potential temple site less than the total number of potential sites identified in September 2023). The following 12 locations have been added to the temples prediction map with this current update - all of which are less likely temples:

  • Butuan, Philippines 
  • Daejeon, Korea
  • Gaborone, Botswana 
  • Honolulu, Hawaii
  • Huntsville, Alabama
  • Kolwezi, Democratic Republic of the Congo 
  • Nagoya, Japan
  • Portoviejo, Ecuador
  • Pretoria, South Africa
  • Pucallpa, Peru
  • Sagay, Philippines
  • Warri, Nigeria

Also, there were five locations that were moved from the less likely to be announced list to the more likely to be announced list. These locations included:

  • Glasgow, Scotland OR Edinburgh, Scotland (the largest number of stakes without a nearby temple in Europe)
  • Maputo, Mozambique (third stake recently organized, long distance to the nearest temples in Beira, Mozambique and Johannesburg, South Africa)
  • Osorno, Chile (increases in the number of wards in the area, long distance from Concepcion, Chile)
  • San Pablo City, Philippines (closest temple is the Alabang Philippines Temple, few other locations in the Philippines with as many stakes to be serviced by a temple)
  • Yamoussoukro, Cote d'Ivoire (steady, rapid growth in the number of stakes in central and northern Cote d'Ivoire).

In my opinion, the following 10 locations appear most likely to have temples announced this coming General Conference. As always, your prediction lists are welcome and encouraged.

  1. Spanish Fork, Utah
  2. Angeles or Olongapo, Philippines 
  3. Kampala, Uganda
  4. São José, Brazil
  5. Santiago, Dominican Republic
  6. Maracaibo, Venezuela 
  7. Osorno, Chile OR Puerto Montt, Chile
  8. El Paso, Texas
  9. Price, Utah
  10. Bo, Sierra Leone

See below for the map of likely and less likely new temple sites:

 

 

Thursday, February 8, 2024

First Branch Organized in Timor-Leste (East Timor)

The first branch in the nation of Timor-Leste (East Timor), the Dili Branch, was organized in January after many years of the congregation operating as a group under the supervision of the Indonesia Jakarta Mission. The branch appears led by a local priesthood leader. It is unclear whether government recognition for the Church was obtained and played a role in the organization of an official branch in Dili. In 2015, Elder Jeffrey R. Holland dedicated Timor-Leste for missionary work, and the first senior missionary couple was assigned to perform humanitarian work. The senior missionary couple held a private sacrament meeting in their home, and the first baptism of a child of record was in 2016. In 2017, the first meetinghouse was dedicated and used primarily for English classes. However, the first convert baptism in the country did not occur until 2019. By mid-2019, there were approximately one dozen Latter-day Saints in the country, and all of them appeared to be active in attending church regularly. Updated in mid-2019, the following Future Prospects section of the country profile for Timor-Leste on cumorah.com sums up the situation with the Church in the country pretty well, which is as follows:

The reason why the Church continues to lack official government recognition remains unclear as there do not appear to be any legal obstacles that prevent registration. It is unlikely that the Church will experience significant growth until such registration is obtained and young, full-time proselytizing missionaries are assigned. In the meantime, growth will most likely consist of high-quality converts who self-refer for information about the Church or who have personal connections with senior missionary couples or local members. Distance from mission headquarters in Jakarta, a comparatively tiny population, no translations of Church materials in Tetun, and an extremely small Church membership pose long-term challenges for future proselytism efforts through traditional means.