This weekend, the Church will release its 2019 Statistical Report with data as of year-end 2019. I do not see any significant changes in growth trends during 2019 compared to recent years with the exception of a major increase in the number of congregations (i.e. wards and branches) of approximately 400. Here are my predictions for the likely numbers to be reported:
- Membership: 16.5-16.6 million
- Wards and Branches: ~30,930
- Stakes: 3,437
- Districts: 542
- Missions: 399
- Dedicated Temples: 167
- Convert Baptisms: 230,000-260,000
- Full-time Missionaries Serving: 68,000
- Church-service Missionaries: 35,000-40,000
- Increase in Children of Record (ICR): 100,000-110,000
- Net Annual Increase in Membership: 200,000-225,000
- Membership and Convert Baptisms/ICR discrepancy*: 90,000-120,000
*This statistic is the difference between the summation of convert
baptisms and increase of children of record, and the annual numerical
increase for total church membership reported by the Church. This discrepancy in numbers
constitutes members removed from church records due to death,
excommunication, unbaptized children of record who reach age 18, and
resignations.
Click on the "statistical report" label below to compare these numbers
with previous statistical reports provided by the Church in previous
years.
I noticed that the your figures for net increase in membership as well as the discrepancy between members added and members removed to be optimistic relative to 2018 reported numbers. What is the reason for this? Do you see 2018 as anomalous, and if so, why?
ReplyDeleteI'm not Matt, so I don't have an answer to your question. I just wanted to comment on the fact that it's odd to run into another "James" here that is not myself or James Anderson. Yet another reminder of just how small the world actually is.
ReplyDeleteso, once and for all, does anyone know.. Does the church release #'s on resignations? if not, is there a way to deduce theM?
ReplyDeleteThe way to deduce the resignations is not as complicated as one might think.
ReplyDeleteLet's take 2018's numbers vs 2017's.
Statistic 2018 2017
Membership 16313735 16118169
Converts 234332
Children 102102
So there was a nominal increase of 194574 members. Total number of baptisms were 336534. Discrepancy was 142040, of which there were probably somewhere around 80000 deaths, perhaps more. Excommunications come in at roughly 20k to 25k per year. Voluntary name removals would cover the rest, as well as children of record that were not baptized at age 8.
The total number of members mentioned in each year's statistical report excludes those Church members who have passed away, in addition to all those who have resigned thedir membership, or been excommunicated. So without knowing the other numbers, all we'd be able to determine is the total last year whose names were removed from the records of the Church for any reason. I am torn as far as that is concerned. On the one hand, it would be good to have such figures, which might then give insight into how we are losing Church membersm (and in turn, what may be able to be done to prevent that from happening). On the other hand, while it would be good to know the number of Church members who passed away, knowing how many were excommunicated comes with an entirely different set of new problems.
ReplyDeleteThe bottom line for me is that, for whatever the reason, Church leaders do not at this time feel that such information is crucial for the general public to know. As things now stand, there are more pertinent informational factors, such as specific stats for specific countries, which have previously been noted by name in earlier posts from Matt here, and for whatever the reason, that information for the moment is not being made public at all. That said, in an era when the Church and its' leaders have seemed to be striving for more transparency in information released to the public, all of this may change at some point. Just my two cents on the matter, for whatever they might be worth to anyone who reads these thoughts.
Sorry, Bryan. I was apparently composing my reply to the Dude's question at the same time yours was published. I have to say that I like your answer better. I have wondered, however, if, given how much President Nelson has done in terms of increasing transparency for the Church, it wouldn't shock me if, within the next decade or less, adjustments were made to the annual report to show more information that would put such questions into better context.
ReplyDeleteJust updated my "Temple Predictions by Utah County - Apr 2020 Edition" at the 11th hour.
ReplyDeleteCheck it out before Conference starts (or before The Prophet announces the new temples):
https://www.dropbox.com/s/jeooo5ivcbt688j/Temple%20Predictions%20by%20Utah%20County%20-%20Apr%202020.docx?dl=0
Let me know what additions I've missed, what suggestions you may have for improving it for the next time, etc.
Hopefully, I'll be updating it right after this weekend with some brand new Utah Temples! :)
A possible ratio of stakes to temples is 30:1, that comes from the fact that Provo City Center and Payson have presently 29 stakes each. Draper is likewise. Oquirrh Mountain is in an area that is being developed rapidly (and the developer gave the Church the very land it sits on), and further growth may eventually cause them to have to split something to balance things out in the far south between both Jordan River and Oquirrh Mountain. Olympia Hills was approved as a new major development in Herriman, will be similar to Daybreak but smaller.
ReplyDeleteLook for a similar possibility elsewhere like Salt Lake/Taylorsville (temple announced but planning well along). Maybe others.
@James Anderson, The Stake to Temple ratio that I have found for the current 168 Temples, from Rick's churchofjesuschristtemples.org site is : 20:1 + Districts to Temples : 3:1, with a combined Stakes+Districts to Temple is 24:1.
ReplyDeleteTotal : 3443 Stakes + 533 Districts
Total Temples in operation : 168
But if we only count the Utah Area, it may be higher.
Utah Area Temple Districts : 625 Stakes
Utah Area Temples : 16
Ratio : 39:1
Is your 39.1 reasoning from before or after the five temples being built/under construction are completed?
ReplyDeleteI can also see Salt Lake losing a few stakes to Taylorsville, Tooele Valley will actually be a split-off. Same for Layton, will draw from Bountiful and Ogden. Orem will take from Provo but perhaps a couple from Provo City Center also.
James Anderson, I am not sure where you are getting "five temples being built/under construction". Right now, there are 14 in the current construction queue, one of which, the Rio de Janeiro Brazil Temple, is completed and awaiting an announcement of revised opening dates. There are also 4 others for which a groundbreaking has been scheduled. In the event that all 4 groundbreakings proceed according to the previously-announced arrangements, that could result in an "under construction" total of 17 (or 18 if Rio has not been dedicated by the time ground is broken for the Auckland New Zealand Temple). I appreciate any clarification you can provide as far as the number you listed. Thanks.
ReplyDelete"
@James Anderson + James Stokes, to answer both. My 39:1 Stakes:Temple Ratio figure as stated above was from the current 16 Temples (in operation), located within the Utah Area. It does not include the possible future 6 temples announced or under construction, within the Utah Area of the church.
ReplyDeleteMore to the point, the future 6 as mentioned above are :
1) Saratoga Springs Utah (under construction).
2) Layton Utah (May 31st scheduled groundbreaking ceremony).
3) Orem Utah (announced).
4) Taylorsville Utah (announced).
5) Tooele Valley Utah (announced).
6) Washington County Utah (announced).
I hope this clarifies the confusion.
Statistical report online: https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/april-2020-general-conference#saturday-afternoon
ReplyDeleteChurch Units
ReplyDeleteStakes
3,437
Missions
399
Districts
542
Wards and Branches
30,940
Church Membership
Total membership
16,565,036
New children of record during 2019
94,266
Converts baptized during 2019
248,835
Missionaries
Full-time missionaries
67,021
Church-service Missionaries
31,333
Temples
Temples dedicated during 2019—Rome Italy, Kinshasa DR Congo, Fortaleza Brazil, Port-au-Prince Haiti, Lisbon Portugal, and Arequipa Peru
6
Temples rededicated during 2019—Memphis Tennessee, Oklahoma City Oklahoma, Oakland California, Raleigh North Carolina, Frankfurt Germany, Asunción Paraguay, and Baton Rouge Louisiana
7
Temples in operation
167
If we include those 6 new Temples under construction, or announced, making a total of 22 Temples located in the Utah Area. With 625 Stakes assigned to them, according to Rick's temples site. 625/22 would bring the Ratio per temple from 39.1 down to 28.4, in the Utah Area.
ReplyDeleteExcept the Monticello Utah Temple is not in the Utah Area so there are only 21 announced temples for the Utah area. Unless President Nrlson disrupts my calculations in a few minutes, which I hope happens.
DeleteFe de Errata my above comment : "Layton Utah Temple : Groundbreaking: Scheduled for May 30, 2020".
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ReplyDeleteCounting names removed and excommunications, while interestingly statistically and culturally, does not fall under a productive way of faith promotion.
ReplyDeleteIn the MTC I once asked one of my teachers: "What is the worst story you heard during your mission?" I think a couple visiting teachers had shared some doozies and piqued my interest.
He responded and stopped me cold: "Are you sure you want to know that, Elder?" Or, why would I want to know that?
Yeah.