December 2014 Newsletter

Click here to access our December 2014 issue of our monthly newsletter for cumorah.com.

Updated List of New Missions to be Created in 2015

I have come across additional reports of new missions to be organized in 2015. Here is an updated list of the 11 new missions to be organized in July:

• Argentina Buenos Aires East
• Argentina Santa Fe
• Barbados Bridgetown
• California Modesto
• Costa Rica (2nd mission)
• Peru Trujillo North 
• Portugal (2nd mission)
• Utah Logan
• Utah Orem 
• Washington Yakima
• Wisconsin Appleton

Assuming no missions will be discontinued, the addition of these new missions will increase the total number of missions worldwide to 417.

Top 10 Encouraging and Discouraging LDS Growth and Missionary Developments in 2014

I recently completed a case study for cumorah.com that identifies what I believe to be the top 10 encouraging and discouraging LDS growth and missionary developments for 2014. Please click here to view the case study.

The top 10 encouraging developments are:

1. The Worldwide Surge in the Full-time Missionary Force Begins to Stabilize with Larger Numbers of Missionaries than Originally Expected
2. Largest Net Increase in the Worldwide Number of Stakes since 1998
3. Rapid Growth in West Africa
4. Church Creates its First Stakes in Four Nations
5. Reversing Stagnant Growth in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan
6. Unprecedented National Outreach Expansion in Brazil
7. Philippines Growth
8. The Vietnamese Government Officially Recognizes the Church in Vietnam; Progress in Missionary Work Continues
9. First Young, Full-time Missionaries Assigned to Burma and Gabon; Missionaries Return to Sri Lanka
10. First General Conference Addresses Given in Languages Other than English

The top 10 discouraging developments are:

1. Trends in Congregational Decline Intensify in Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay and Persist in Colombia, Paraguay, Peru, and Venezuela
2. At least 106 Countries and Dependencies Experience No Net Change in the Number of Official Congregations for 2014
3. Continued Challenges Achieving "Real Growth" in Mexico
4. Trends in Congregational Decline Persist in Japan and South Korea
5. Contraction of LDS Outreach in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea Continues
6. Little to No Expansion of National Outreach Occurs in several countries in the Africa Southeast Area
7. Stagnant National Outreach Expansion in India
8. Only Two New Missions Organized Despite Surge in the Number of Members Serving Full-time Missions
9. Conflict in Ukraine Closes the Ukraine Donetsk Mission - All LDS branches discontinued in Donetsk
10. Missionaries Removed from Liberia and Sierra Leone

Go Ye Into All The World - New Facebook Group

After months of careful thought and planning, I have decided to create a Facebook group that promotes member-missionary efforts through social media advertizing. The new group is called Go Ye Into All The World and the Facebook page can be found here. The purpose of this page is to promote efforts to bring the restored Gospel of Jesus Christ to all the world, particularly locations with no LDS presence. This can be done through ordinary Latter-day Saints using Facebook's ad campaigns.

I conducted my first ad campaign for Arochukwu, Nigeria from December 14th-19th. I targeted Arochukwu from December 14th-19th with an advertisement on the Book of Mormon. Arochukwu has no known LDS presence but is nearby several cities where wards and branches operate. It is one of the most populous cities in southeastern Nigeria without an LDS presence. Consequently I believed that this effort may contribute to the Church ultimately establishing a presence in Arochukwu. This effort reached 1,889 people and resulted in 54 website clicks to read the Book of Mormon page on mormon.org. Remarkably this ad cost only $5.

The opportunities for missionary work through social media advertizing are astounding. There are over two billion registered users on Facebook. Church leaders, full-time missionaries, and regular church members can invest small amounts of money into ads that reach tens of thousands within a short period of time. Advertisements can also be adapted to the culture and society of individual locations to enhance receptivity. A mission president may use social media to prime local populations prior to the assignment of full-time missionaries. Church members in the United States can target their own city or zip code to reach thousands with only a few dollars. Less productive areas of the world can use social media advertizing to find investigators. Area presidencies can use social media advertizing as part of opening additional countries to missionary work.

I am planning on creating a grassroots initiative to systematic reach countries and cities lesser-reached or unreached by the Church. However, I am going to advise those who want to participate to avoid targeting countries where proselytism is illegal or where conversion to Christianity carries significant negative consequences. If you are interested, join the group!

Another Two Missions to be Created in 2014

Missionaries serving in Utah report that the following new missions will be created in mid-2015:

• Utah Logan Mission (division of the Utah Ogden Mission)
• Utah Orem Mission (division of the Utah Provo Mission)

The number of missions in Utah will increase to 11 after these two new missions are created. This means that the average Utah mission will have a mere quarter of a million people within its geographical boundaries.

So to recap, here's a list of new missions I have come across to be organized in 2015.

• Barbados Bridgetown
• California Modesto
• Peru Trujillo North
• Utah Logan
• Utah Orem

At this rate, I imagine that we may see 60 or so new missions organized in 2015, with the vast majority of these new missions organized in the Americas.

Two Additional Missions to be Created in 2015

I have come across reports of two additional missions to be organized in 2015. These missions include:

• California Modesto Mission (to be created from the California Fresno and California Sacramento Mission)
• Peru Trujillo North Mission (to be created from the Peru Trujillo Mission)

With the announcement of the new Barbados Bridgetown Mission, the number of LDS missions in 2015 will increase to 409.

LDS Presence in Vietnam No Longer Sensitive

The Church has recently reclassified its presence in Vietnam from sensitive to non-sensitive. This change appears attributed to the Church obtaining government recognition earlier this year. Currently the Church in Vietnam reports one district located in Hanoi (organized on December 12th, 2010) and four branches (Hanoi, Hanoi District Branch, Tan Son Nhat, and Thao Dien). Full-time missionaries serving in the Cambodia Phnom Penh Mission speculate that larger numbers of missionaries may be assigned and additional cities outside of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City may open to proselytism within the near future.

Earlier this year the Church reported 1,600 members in Vietnam.

New Mission to be Created in the West Indies

Missionaries serving in the West Indies Mission report that in July 2015 the Church will realign the West Indies Mission and the Dominican Republic Santo Domingo East Mission to create the Barbados Bridgetown Mission. The new mission will include the following countries/overseas departments: Anguilla, Barbados, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The West Indies Mission will be renamed the Trinidad Port of Spain Mission and the realigned mission will include Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago.

Potential New Stakes - Districts Likely to Become Stakes

One of the primary methods that the Church has organized new stakes has been from districts. Districts are administrative organizations that operate in many ways like a stake. Districts have limited autonomy and are closely supervised by the mission president who acts in many ways as the stake president. For more information about districts, please see cumorah.com's Missiology Encyclopedia for district.

Below are a list of districts that appear likely to become stakes within the foreseeable future. Predicting which districts are likely to become stakes is a difficult endeavor as there are many criteria that must be met which are not reported to the public such as the number of active, full-tithe paying Melchizedek Priesthood holders, the number of active members, and the number of branches that meet the criteria to become wards. Consequently, I have developed a three-tiered system to help more accurately predict which districts may become stakes. This system ranks the district from one to three (1=highly likely, 2=very likely, 3 somewhat likely) based on the likelihood of whether the district will soon become a stake. Information I have gathered to generate this list has come from studying congregational growth trends, obtaining reports from members and missionaries, and analyzing LDS growth trends in surrounding stakes and districts.

AFRICA

• Abak Nigeria (8 branches) - 1
• Abomosu Ghana (7 branches) - 2 
• Akamkpa Nigeria (7 branches) - 3
• Antsirabe Madagascar (8 branches) - 2
• Beira Mozambique (12 branches) - 3
• Chyulu Kenya (10 branches) - 3
• Cotonou Benin (12 branches) - 1
• Ekpoma Nigeria (10 branches) - 1
• Eldoret Kenya (9 branches) - 3
• Ikot Ekpene Nigeria (7 branches) - 2
• Ile-Ife Nigeria (8 branches) - 2
• Jinja Uganda (7 branches) - 1
• Kolwezi Democratic Republic of Congo  (7 branches) - 3
• Likasi Democratic Republic of Congo (9 branches) - 1
• Luanda Angola (5 branches) - 3
• Maputo Mozambique (6 branches) - 2
• Mbuji-Mayi Democratic Republic of Congo (8 branches) - 1
• Mutare Zimbabwe (6 branches) - 3
• Okpuala Ngwa Nigeria (8 branches) - 3
• Onitsha Nigeria (11 branches) - 1
• Toamasina Madagascar (5 branches) - 3
• Twifo Praso Ghana (6 branches) - 3

ASIA

• Agoo Philippines (7 branches) - 2
• Aguilar Philippines (6 branches) - 3
• Alicia Philippines (8 branches) - 1
• Alaminos Philippines (6 branches) - 3
• Baliwag Philippines (5 branches) - 3
• Bambang Philippines (6 branches) - 3
• Bangalore India (6 branches) - 3
• Camiling Philippines West (6 branches) - 3
• Cauayan Philippines (5 branches) - 3
• Chia Yi Taiwan (6 branches) - 3
• Gingoog Philippines (6 branches) - 3
• Guimba Philippines (6 branches) - 2
• Hua Lien Taiwan (6 branches) - 3
• Iba Philippines (8 branches) - 2
• Iriga Philippines (6 branches) - 2
• Kuala Lumpur Malaysia (7 branches) - 2 
• La Carlota Philippines (7 branches) - 1
• Ligao Philippines (6 branches) - 2
• Mangaldan Philippines (8 branches) - 1 
• Morong Rizal Philippines (6 branches) - 3
• Naic Philippines (8 branches) - 1
• Olongapo Philippines (7 branches) - 1
• Panabo Philippines (5 branches) - 3
• Phnom Penh Cambodia East (5 branches) - 3 
• Placer Philippines (8 branches) - 3 
• San Antonio Philippines (6 branches) - 3
• San Carlos Philippines (7 branches) - 3
• Santa Cruz Zambales Philippines (6 branches) - 3
• Solano Philippines (6 branches) - 3
• Surigao Philippines (6 branches) - 3
• Tagbilaran Philippines (9 branches) - 3
• Tagum Philippines (6 branches) - 3
• Toledo Philippines (8 branches) - 3
• Ubon Thailand (9 branches) - 1
• Udorn Thailand  (8 branches) - 1
• Ulaanbaatar Mongolia East (5 branches) - 2

CARIBBEAN

• Azua Dominican Republic (6 branches) - 3
• Barahona Dominican Republic  (7 branches) - 3
• Mandeville Jamaica (5 branches) - 3
• San Pedro Dominican Republic (8 branches) - 3 

CENTRAL AMERICA

• Cayo Belize (7 branches) - 2
• Granada, Nicaragua (5 branches) - 3
• Liberia Costa Rica (6 branches) - 3
• Los Tuxtla México (9 branches) - 3
• Manzanillo México (7 branches) - 3
• Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua (5 branches) - 3
• San Benito Guatemala (9 branches) - 2
• Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa Guatemala (9 branches) - 3
• Senahu Guatemala (8 branches) - 2
• Solola Guatemala (7 branches) - 2
• Tamaulipas México Río Bravo (5 branches) - 3
• Ticul México (8 branches) - 3

EUROPE

• Algarve Portugal  (7 branches) - 3
• Bucharest Romania (9 branches) - 3
• Novosibirsk Russia (9 branches) - 2 
• Saratov Russia (9 branches) - 2
• León Spain (7 branches) - 3
• Santiago Spain (8 branches) - 3

NORTH AMERICA

• Laredo Texas (7 branches) - 2

OCEANIA

• Kwajalein Marshall Islands (5 branches) - 3
• Namoneas Chuuk (9 branches) - 2
• Port Vila Vanuatu (7 branches) - 1
• Taveuni  Fiji (12 branches) - 3

SOUTH AMERICA

• Alto Hospicio Chile (5 branches) - 3
• Apucarana Brazil (5 branches) - 3 
• Armenia Colombia (6 branches) - 3
• Barranca Perú (6 branches) - 1
• Bell Ville Argentina (9 branches) - 1
• Boa Vista Brazil (5 branches) - 2
• Botucatu Brazil  (6 branches) - 3
• Concepción Argentina (6 branches) - 3
• Coronel Oviedo Paraguay (8 branches) - 2
• Corrientes Argentina (6 branches) - 3
• Florida Uruguay (6 branches) - 3
• Guadalupe Perú La Libertad (6 branches) - 3
• Ibague Colombia (7 branches) - 2
• Juazeiro Brazil (5 branches) - 2
• Loja Ecuador (6 branches) - 3
• Manizales Colombia (5 branches) - 3
• Necochea Argentina (7 branches) - 3
• Olavarría Argentina (10 branches) - 3 
• Ovalle Chile (7 branches) - 3 
• Paita Perú (5 branches) - 3
• Palmira Colombia (7 branches) - 3
• Popayan Colombia (5 branches) - 3
• Rio Paraná Argentina (6 branches) - 3
• Santa Marta Colombia (8 branches) - 2
• Santa Rosa Ecuador (7 branches) - 2
• Talagante Chile (8 branches) - 2
• Talara Perú (5 branches) - 3
• Tarapoto Perú (5 branches) - 3
• Tarma Perú (7 branches) - 3
• Três Corações Brazil (8 branches) - 2
• Tulua Colombia (6 branches) - 3
• Virú Perú (5 branches) -3

Stakes Likely to Split Outside the United States and Canada

Below is an updated list of stakes likely to split within the near future. Previous lists are available for December 2012 and January 2014.

AFRICA

• Aba Nigeria (13 wards, 2 branches)
• Abidjan Cote d'Ivoire Toit Rouge (11 wards)
• Abuja Nigeria (10 wards, 3 branches)
• Benin City Nigeria New Benin (10 wards)
• Benin City Nigeria Ugbowo (10 wards, 1 branch) 
• Calabar Nigeria (13 wards, 2 branches)
• Cape Coast Ghana (11 wards, 2 branches)
• Cocody Cote d'Ivoire (10 wards, 1 branch) 
• East London South Africa (11 wards, 1 branch)
• Eket Nigeria (11 wards, 2 branches)
• Kananga Democratic Republic of Congo (12 wards)
• Kinshasa Democratic Republic of Congo Binza (10 wards)
• Lubumbashi Democratic Republic of Congo (10 wards)
• Nairobi Kenya (12 wards, 3 branches)
• Nsit Ubium Nigeria (9 wards, 4 branches)
• Owerri Nigeria (5 wards, 10 branches) - likely to split to form a new district
• Port-Bouet Cote d'Ivoire (11 wards, 1 branch)
• Praia Cape Verde (12 wards, 4 branches)
• Takoradi Ghana (11 wards, 5 branches)

ASIA

• Angeles Philippines (11 wards, 2 branches)
• Butuan Philippines (10 wards, 1 branch)
• Lipa Philippines (10 wards, 2 branches)
• Mandaue Philippines (9 wards)
• Singapore (10 wards)

EUROPE

• Verona Italy (8 wards, 5 branches)

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

• Amatitlán Guatemala (9 wards)
• Guatemala City Stake (9 wards, 2 branches)
• La Ceiba Honduras (10 wards)
• Managua Nicaragua (10 wards, 1 branch)
• San José Costa Rica Los Yoses (10 wards, 2 branches)
• San Miguel El Salvador (9 wards, 3 branches)
• San Salvador El Salvador La Libertad (10 wards, 3 branches)
• Santo Domingo Dominican Republic Ozama (10 wards)

MEXICO

• Amecameca Mexico (11 wards)
• Celaya Mexico (11 wards)
• Chalco Mexico (10 wards)
• Chilpancingo Mexico (10 wards, 5 branches)
• Ciudad Victoria Mexico (10 wards, 4 branches)
• Coatzacoalcos Mexico Puerto (13 wards)
• Culiacan Mexico (10 wards, 1 branch)
• Juchitan Mexico (10 wards, 3 branches) 
• Mexico City Anahuac (11 wards)
• Mexico City Chapultepec (10 wards)
• Mexico City Cuautitlan (11 wards)
• Mexico City Culturas (11 wards)
• Mexico City Iztapalapa (10 wards)
• Mexico City La Perla (10 wards, 2 branches)
• Mexico City Tecamac (11 wards)
• Mexico City Tepalcapa (11 wards)
• Oaxaca Mexico Monte Alban (10 wards, 3 branches)
• Puebla México La Libertad (10 wards)
• Veracruz Mexico Villa Rica (10 wards, 1 branch)
• Villahermosa Mexico Gaviotas (10 wards, 1 branch)
• Xalapa Mexico (10 wards)

OCEANIA

• Ha'apai Tonga (9 wards, 5 branches) 
• Newcastle Australia (10 wards, 2 branches)

SOUTH AMERICA

• Brasilia Brazil Alvorada (11 wards)
• Buenos Aires Argentina Castelar (10 wards)
• Cochabamba Bolivia Jaihuayco (10 wards)
• Joao Pessoa Brazil Rangel (10 wards)
• Juiz de Fora Brazil (11 wards)
• Jujuy Argentina (10 wards, 3 branches)
• Lima Peru Canto Grande (10 wards)
• Luque Paraguay (10 wards, 1 branch) 
• Maceió Brazil  (11 wards)
• Machala Ecuador (10 wards, 1 branch)
• Maipu de Cuyo Argentina (10 wards, 1 branch)
• Maracanaú Brazil (9 wards, 1 branch)
• Rio Branco Brazil (10 wards, 1 branch)
• Santa Maria Brazil (10 wards, 1 branch)
• São José dos Campos Brazil (10 wards)
• São Luis Brazil (10 wards) 
• São Paulo Brazil Casa Grande (9 wards)
• São Paulo Brazil Guarapiranga (9 wards)
• São Paulo Brazil Penha (10 wards)
• Tarija Bolivia Stake (10 wards)

Stake and District Database

After four months of development, we have completed a comprehensive database listing all of the Church's stakes and districts known to have ever operated. Information in the database includes the name of each stake or district and its corresponding country, administration division, creation date, former names, parent stake or district, notes, discontinuation date (when applicable), and reasons for discontinuation (if known). We hope that this database will be utilized by researchers and the public to promote greater interest and scholarship in the study of the growth of the LDS Church. If you notice any errors in the database or have something to add, please contact me by commenting to this blog post.

The database can be accessed here and may be viewed in Google Sheets or downloaded into Microsoft Excel.

New Stakes in Brazil, Mexico, and Taiwan

Brazil
On November 16th, the Church created a new stake in Brazil. The São José do Rio Preto Brazil South was organized from a division of the São José do Rio Preto Brazil Stake. The new stake included the following five wards and one branch: the Anchieta, Barretos, Catanduva, Parque Celeste, and Quinta das Paineiras Wards, and the José Bonifácio Branch. There are now 78 stakes and seven stakes in São Paulo State and 253 stakes and 39 districts in Brazil.


Mexico
On November 23rd, the Church created a new stake in Chihuahua State, Mexico. The Ciudad Juárez México Las Torres Stake was organized from the Ciudad Juárez México East Stake and includes the following four wards at the moment: the Aeropuerto, Ampliación, Granjero, and Hacienda de Las Torres Wards. It is like that additional wards will be assigned to the new stake as the Ciudad Juárez México East Stake currently has nine wards. There are now 228 stakes and 37 districts in Mexico.


Taiwan
On November 30th, the Church created a new stake in Taiwan. The Taipei Taiwan South Stske was organized from the Taipei Taiwan West Stake and includes the following six wards: the Ankang, Ching Hsin, Hsin Tien, Mu Cha Ward, Shuang Ho 1st, and Shuang Ho 2nd Wards. There are now 12 stakes and two districts in Taiwan.