Friday, March 30, 2018

2017 Statistical Report - Predictions

Based upon recent LDS growth trends and information gathered over the past year, the following is my prediction for various statistics to be reported in the annual 2017 statistical report tomorrow afternoon. I foresee no significant differences in global church growth trends for 2017 in comparison to 2016 albeit congregational growth rates (i.e. net increase in the number of wards/branches) in the United States in the United States significantly decreased in 2017 compared to 2016. This was primarily attributed to scores of ward/branch closures in California and a slower-than-average year for congregational growth elsewhere in the United States. Otherwise, information I have obtained thus far suggests no other significant changes in global growth trends in 2017 in comparison to recent years.

This is what I predict for the 2017 statistical report:

  • Membership: 16.1-16.2 million
  • Wards and Branches: ~30,500
  • Stakes: 3,341
  • Districts: 553
  • Missions: 421
  • Temples: 159
  • Convert Baptisms: 230,000-260,000
  • Full-time Missionaries Serving: 68,000
  • Church-service Missionaries: 30,000-37,000
  • Increase in Children of Record (ICR): 100,000-120,000
  • Membership and Convert Baptisms/ICR discrepancy*: 90,000-120,000
*This statistic is the difference between the summation of convert baptisms and increase of children of record, and the annual numerical increase for total church membership. This discrepancy in numbers constitutes members removed from church records due to death, excommunication, unbaptized children of record who reach age 18, and resignations.

Click on the "statistical report" label below to compare these numbers with previous statistical reports provided by the Church in previous years. World data for LDS growth trends since 1975 can be found here.

11 comments:

Ryan Lindgren said...

Do unbaptized children of record count in official membership numbers? I thought they fall out of the numbers at 9, not 18?

Mike Johnson said...

They count until they are removed at 18

John said...

No, they fall out at nine, but their records are maintained until they are 18 so that the auxiliaries and missionaries know they're there, as unbaptized children of members. Children nine and over need to be taught by the missionaries to be baptized.

Cory Ward said...

My question is whether the records a non baptized person are removed at 18 years of age automatically, or by review of church leadership. As a missionary I received a list of non baptized members that included people in their 30's. So that made me wonder whether these records are removed by leadership rather than automatically. If it is only the decision of local leadership to remove the records, then I'm sure the branch president did not know of such policies.

This also leads me to wonder if anyone is really ever removed from a church database. While people remove their names from the church, I'm sure the church leadership has a list on their servers. When people return it seems like the church retains their information when they are rebaptized.

Ohhappydane33 said...

No statistical report given in GC. I wonder why?

Cody Quirk said...

JUST GOT RELEASED-

https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/2017-statistical-report-april-2018-general-conference

CHURCH UNITS

Stakes.......................................................... 3,341

Missions.......................................................... 421

Districts........................................................... 553

Wards and Branches................................. 30,506

CHURCH MEMBERSHIP

Total membership............................... 16,118,169

New children of record during 2017......... 106,771

Converts baptized during 2017................ 233,729

MISSIONARIES

Full-time Missionaries ............................... 67,049

Church-service Missionaries...................... 36,172

TEMPLES

Temples dedicated during 2017.......................... 4

(Paris France, Tucson Arizona, Meridian Idaho, Cedar City Utah)

Temples rededicated during 2017....................... 1

(Idaho Falls Idaho)

Temples in operation...................................... 159

Michael Worley said...

You know, if Elder Holland was counting church service missionaries, his 100,000 baseline was right on.

Michael Worley said...

But he may well have not been.

John Pack Lambert said...

Church proceedings for how to treat unbaptized children of record have changed over time. They used to be kept to a higher age then is now the case.

John Pack Lambert said...

The statistical report was probably dropped because mass reading statitics in a meeting gave no one useful information.

brycen said...

Even though it's just a dry statistical report, I'll miss seeing the Secretary to the First Presidency get up and read it once a year. They could have done the same thing with the Audit Report, but obviously we need to hear that again every year even though it is always pretty much the same thing.