Monday, December 5, 2016

Stake Growth: 1950-Present

The Church has experienced significant stake growth in 2016. Provided with the net increase in the number of stakes in parentheses, the ten years with the highest net increase in the number of stakes include 1996 (146), 1995 (142), 1997 (128), 1980 (126), 1978 (105), 1981 (103), 1979 (102), 1977 (87), 1992 (82), and 1998 (81). Thus far, the Church in 2016 has reported a net increase of 87 stakes (95 stakes organized, eight stakes discontinued). Several additional stakes will be organized by the end of the year, suggesting that there will likely be a net increase of between 90 and 100 stakes. Consequently, the Church in 2016 will likely report its eighth largest annual net increase in the number of stakes in its history.

Percentage growth rates indicate less significant stake growth trends in 2016. The preliminary 2016 annual percentage growth in the number of stakes is 2.7% - the most rapid percentage growth since 1998. However, this percentage growth currently ranks as 33rd within the past 67 years. The Church has previously reported percentage growth rates four times as high as for 2016. For example, 10% or greater annual stake growth occurred for five years: 1978 (11.9%), 1980 (11.5%), 1977 (10.9%), 1979 (10.3%), and 1960 (10.0%). If the Church reported 10% annual growth for the number of stakes in 2016, there would be a net increase of 317 stakes.

Below is a list of the annual net increase of stakes since 1950:

1950 +5
1951 +11
1952 +11
1953 +9
1954 +8
1955 +5
1956 +15
1957 +12
1958 +22
1959 +17
1960 +29
1961 +26
1962 +19
1963 +25
1964 +11
1965 +12
1966 +13
1967 +23
1968 +25
1969 +23
1970 +41
1971 +25
1972 +30
1973 +38
1974 +45
1975 +62
1976 +61
1977 +87
1978 +105
1979 +102
1980 +126
1981 +103
1982 +71
1983 +66
1984 +49
1985 +75
1986 +40
1987 +44
1988 +41
1989 +32
1990 +45
1991 +53
1992 +82
1993 +49
1994 +40
1995 +142
1996 +146
1997 +128
1998 +81
1999 +37
2000 +39
2001 +26
2002 -5
2003 +22
2004 +41
2005 +36
2006 +44
2007 +45
2008 +28
2009 +47
2010 +31
2011 +50
2012 +59
2013 +45
2014 +64
2015 +60
2016* +87 

Below is a list of the number of stakes per year and the annual percentage growth of stakes per year since 1950.

(Year, Number of Stakes, Percentage Growth)
1950     180     2.9%
1951     191     6.1%
1952     202     5.8%
1953     211     4.5%
1954     219     3.8%
1955     224     2.3%
1956     239     6.7%
1957     251     5.0%
1958     273     8.8%
1959     290     6.2%
1960     319     10.0%
1961     345     8.2%
1962     364     5.5%
1963     389     6.9%
1964     400     2.8%
1965     412     3.0%
1966     425     3.2%
1967     448     5.4%
1968     473     5.6%
1969     496     4.9%
1970     537     8.3%
1971     562     4.7%
1972     592     5.3%
1973     630     6.4%
1974     675     7.1%
1975     737     9.2%
1976     798     8.3%
1977     885     10.9%
1978     990     11.9%
1979     1,092     10.3%
1980     1,218     11.5%
1981     1,321     8.5%
1982     1,392     5.4%
1983     1,458     4.7%
1984     1,507     3.4%
1985     1,582     5.0%
1986     1,622     2.5%
1987     1,666     2.7%
1988     1,707     2.5%
1989     1,739     1.9%
1990     1,784     2.6%
1991     1,837     3.0%
1992     1,919     4.5%
1993     1,968     2.6%
1994     2,008     2.0%
1995     2,150     7.1%
1996     2,296     6.8%
1997     2,424     5.6%
1998     2,505     3.3%
1999     2,542     1.5%
2000     2,581     1.5%
2001     2,607     1.0%
2002     2,602     -0.2%
2003     2,624     0.8%
2004     2,665     1.6%
2005     2,701     1.4%
2006     2,745     1.6%
2007     2,790     1.6%
2008     2,818     1.0%
2009     2,865     1.7%
2010     2,896     1.1%
2011     2,946     1.7%
2012     3,005     2.0%
2013     3,050     1.5%
2014     3,114     2.1%
2015     3,174     1.9%
2016*     3,261     2.7%

81 comments:

Dave said...

Since stake requirements have gone up, this list isn't a comparison of apples with apples. We're still discontinuing some marginal stakes which were organized years ago when more minimal requirements for formation were in place. This was exacerbated by lower standards for baptisms.

Chile was the quintessential example.

If we're doing a better job now, stakes formed today will very rarely be discontinued in years to come. We're making it more real.

Ohhappydane33 said...

Dave - Not necessarily. Ward and stake discontinuations typically occur due to changing demographics with active members moving on to other areas with not as many replacement members. It's usually as simple as that. There are many stakes in Utah and California that were once very strong stakes, but simply no longer have the membership base to support the level of units that previously existed. My point being is that there is always going to be ebb and flow, as evidenced by the pretty extreme swings in stake creations over the past 50 years.

David Todd said...

To an extent, I agree with both of you. The good news is that the area of the church experiencing the most rapid growth (west Africa) has much higher convert retention and activity rates than in places like Latin America and the Philippines, that previously accounted for rapid church growth, but now seem stagnant and some areas are having negative congregational and stake growth.

In the US, most of the stakes created and closed seem to follow migration patterns, though. Stakes discontinued in Salt Lake County and California and created in Texas, Arizona, and Utah County are prime examples. This being said, it cannot be denied that an increase of net stakes is always an indicator of administrative growth and leadership maturation. It does not parallel spiritual growth though, which is better analyzed by considering factors such as activity rate, members participating in temple and family history work, institute and seminary enrollment, and temple sealings.

MainTour said...

Wow there is exactly 9 times as many stakes today as in the year I was born. Has the church really grown that much?

MainTour said...

Dave - We continue to see shrinkage in city center stakes in California and Utah as successful LDS families move out to the suberbs or other states with better living standards. I've been watching my once mighty San Diego Stake continually shrink since its height in my missionary days.

Jeff Steed said...

Since we are comparing, let's also not forget that the world population growth rate in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s was over DOUBLE what it is today. It makes the 2016 numbers that much more impressive if you recognize that the Church is still recognizing this type of growth in an era when the average world population growth is only 1 percent. Look no further than the declining birth rates in the U.S. and recognize that the real and active growth of the Church seems to be almost 3 times that of the population growth.

Levi said...

Something to be considered is the effect of the Great Recession on the areas of growth. Several posts back we were informed that the Goodyear Arizona Stake was going to split. I am confident that that split would have happened at least 2 to 4 years ago if the crash had not happened.

I, however do think that some of the Stake creations are being pushed. In the Arizona Phoenix Mission at the beginning of the year there was 16 Stakes. At the end of the end of the year there will be 20 stakes in the Mission. Of those 16 Stakes, 8 were and will be involved in the Stake creations. The others that aren't involved are the YSA Stake, the four Northern Stakes, Buckeye, Surprise North, and Peoria Stakes. So, it does seem that there is a push to do the Stake creations in a group for the metro area. This may be contribute to the bulge of Stake creations that have happened this year. I do not anticipate any new Stake Creations happening for the next 5 years in the Arizona Phoenix Mission.

Eduardo Clinch said...

As much as I observed a lot of inflated numbers of convert baptisms in Chile due to less than rigorous standards like attendance at 3-4 consecutive Sunday meetings or other criteria, the Chilean people have shown a tremendous spirit to be baptized and take the lessons, and shown great faith and zeal with the missiinaries from all lands, to their credit.
Another observation about Chilean priesthood leaders: many did decent jobs leading but the worst case of growth was seeing so many former branch presidents going less active after their release from a calling. I saw this with former strong Relief Society and Primary leaders as well.
There is overall growth and so many part member families always leads to better chances of completing families. Elders Holland and Oaks saw these cases up close, the latter in the Philipines.
Indianapolis
Bloomington
Los Angeles
Concepcion
San Pedro
Angol District
Chillan
BYU YSA
BYU YSA
BYU YSA
Israel District
BYU YSA
Highland
Los Angeles
San Bernardino
Ashburn
Monterrey
Sierra Vista
Kabul District
Oakton

James said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
James said...

I am continually amazed by what I am hearing about monumental Church growth milestones. My particular fascination with all temple-related goings-on is natural in consideration of my 6-year service at one of these temples, and in light of the fact that that same temple is where I met and married my wife. I owe all the good things in my life to temples and the sacred work done therein, and it is my absolute pleasure and delight to attempt to keep those who read my blog posts abreast of all Church-related news, with a special focus on temple construction milestones and when such future events are announced and scheduled. In my most recent blog post, I revisit, revise, and revamp my projections for when such milestones might be announced and when future events will take place. In this, I have been graciously aided by Rick Satterfield, who kindly gave his honest feedback on my previous such post and who pointed me towards making my latest alterations. I would welcome your feedback on my doing so. The location and number of temples that may soon be announced has also altered and changed over time based on research I have done and feedback I have received. One such comment pointed me to the fact that, while I have been projecting for a while that Virginia's first temple may be built in Richmond, Waynesboro may be a more imminent and more likely candidate for a temple. Since I revised my predictions, I would welcome feedback on my redone post. As always, with profound thanks to Matt, who willingly allows me to advertise significant blog posts that I do, I would welcome feedback on my latest work. I would, as usual, prefer that any comments regarding my work be left on my blog itself. Thanks to all who have supported or taken an interest in my efforts, even though I am certain my blog will never enjoy the degree of success that both this blog of Matt's and Rick's temple site do. I look forward to continuing the discussion of these wonderful developments over a variety of outlets. Thanks.

http://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com/2016/12/altered-predictions-for-when-most.html

James said...

I have also taken the liberty of looking at the latest Church unit creations and have used information there to revise and update my list of temples that may be announced soon. Please check out that post at the link below. I look forward to any and all feedback.

http://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com/2016/12/updated-list-of-locations-that-may-soon.html

Levi said...

Something else to consider when talking about potential temple announcements is the collapse of commodity prices over the last two or three years. The Church owns a fair bit of farm land the is a source revenue to build temples. My father mentioned this to me this last General Conference. The Church doesn't have the funds to off and build new temples at this time.

Mike Johnson said...

Although the Church still has farm land a lot of it has been divested over the years. It was primarily for products in the store house and not for sale commercially anyway. I believe temples are built from Tithing funds and not from the commercial revenue of the Deseret Management Corporation.

The Church budgets for all its projects for the next year in December with money already in the bank. I do think we got a bit spoiled with lots of temple announcements and have felt some frustrations when the announcements slowed down. It is good to see the backlog being worked.

James said...

I was trying to say something similar but couldn't find the right words. The idea that the Church does not have funds to build temples is erroneously misguided at best. I happen to know that the Temple Department strives constantly to locate sites that would be prime locations for a temple. I also know of several temple sites that have been chosen simply due to the assent and agreement of apostles with an attachment to such areas. Brigham City is a prime example of that. President Monson reportedly asked President Packer, a Brigham City native, to accompany him as he looked over things there. When they came upon the site where the temple now stands, President Monson reportedly asked him what he thought of this site as a prospect for the Brigham City temple. President Packer, who was well familiar with the site, agreed that it was ideal for that purpose. At that point, according to reports, President Monson raise both his hands in support and said, "So be it." So it's obvious that as the apostles tour the world, they are on the lookout for sites that could hold a temple. Such sites have already been identified in at least five locations that I know of: Managua Nicaragua, Port Moresby Papua New Guinea, Bentonville Arkansas, Missoula Montana, and the Southwest Salt Lake Valley site first mentioned by President Hinckley in 2005 and not yet built, despite theories to the contrary. From what I understand, the purpose of convening the Council on the Disposition of the Tithes every December is to evaluate the Church budget use from the previous year and make budget allotments for the following year. So I don't know where your dad got the idea that the Church "has no money" to purchase temple sites. Based on what I've observed here and on the previous comment, which was so well worded, that couldn't be further from the truth. In point of fact, with all temples that have been announced, we are getting closer to having 200 temples in operation by or before the 200th anniversary of the Church. I don't know if the Church will make this an official goal akin to that of President Hinckley's to have had 100 temples by the year 2000 (which was exceeded by two). Just think of it: we only need 23 more announced to bring the announced number to 200, and, given that the LDS Church Temples site reports that four more temples will be completed by the end of next year, with 6 or more added in 2018. And that's not even considering how and when future temples may be announced, or when groundbreakings will take place, or how soon they might complete and dedicate future temples. To me, it is a real possibility. It wouldn't surprise me in the least.

Adam said...

Take it for what it's worth, but I had a mission companion whose father was the president of a large engineering firm in Utah who was on the temple board. When he got his mission call to the Philippines his father told him that they already had money set aside for the country to have 10 temples. If such were true, and you project that out to the rest of the world... dang.

The church bought a lot of assets during the downturn in the economy, because as one of the asset managers said in a class at BYU, "Most companies project out 5-10 years with their investments. The church projects out to forever." As of 2015 they weren't really buying anything because prices had gotten higher than thought worth investing in. The church'll just wait for the next downturn and unload because it has the funds to do so.

The value of the cattle land in Florida is going to skyrocket as suburban sprawl continues in Florida. Many of you probably saw the newsroom report where the Governor of Florida sent off an executive order to Deseret Ranches, telling them that they have to lay out a plan of how to develop the land. My coworkers in real estate here in Florida are just blown away at the potential of the land, as many have small tracts of land they are land banking on and can only imagine how much the church will get off it when it comes time to sell. While the church always hits on how they use the cattle for the bishop storehouses and welfare, I doubt that that much beef is only going to members, I'm sure they're selling a lot of the surplus.

But all of this is okay, because there is no way that Africa is paying for buildings completely from their own tithing. A growing church in Africa means the church needs these investments to continue the growth of the church.

So my opinion is that the church is loaded, at least in assets, but their immediate cash-flow may be a different beast. In 2012 when the missionary age change was taking affect they froze all salary increases among BYU employees because they were sinking so much money into the missionary program. So the difference between being asset heavy and cash on hand may affect things in the short term.

L. Chris Jones said...

I understood that much of the land in the Florida cattle and citrus ranch was commercial. The church has other welfare farms.

Eduardo Clinch said...

The LDS Church has 7 or so for profit businesses that help people stay gainfully employed and pay taxes. I am not sure how much charitable monies from those firms go to general Church budgets.
It would be cool to see how the funds are allocated and of course every billionaire and every widow's mite counts.
I think that member's time is the most valuable, after all is said and done. Money means a lot, obviously, but eternally time is the real sign of a real faithful disciple of Jesus Christ.

Mike Johnson said...

Much of the Florida cattle ranch is being converted into residential property.

Levi said...

The source of that information was from some the the people that he knows that are with some of the Church farms that are around the Tri-Cities Washington area.

L. Chris Jones said...

I understand the plan to develop the Florida land is a long term plan for the next 50 years or so.

The Opinion said...

For those that care to know a little more about Deseret Ranches in Florida.
http://www.deseretranches.com
There is a section about the 60 year plan to develop the ranch. Also the church sold seventeen radio stations about in 2011 for $505M and purchased in 2013 300K new acres in the panhandle of Florida for $535M. They currently own 2% of the land in Florida.
http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2013-11-07/news/os-mormon-deseret-huge-land-deal-20131107_1_deseret-ranches-erik-jacobsen-central-florida

Eduardo Clinch said...

Some people complain about tge power and wealth of the Church of Jesus Christ. For those with a testimony of its truthfulness, all the ownings and expenses by its leaders indicate the Lord and His people are active and magnanimous forces of good.
For anyone who is interested to know, the Oakton Virginia Stake has property purchased by Hunter Mill and Route 267 for a new building.

James said...

Thank you, Eduardo, for saying that. I feel the same way. And I say again, money is not a problem for the Church. Tithing is used for multiple purposes, wherever those at headquarters feel it would best be used. Fast Offerings are often used to help people in need within the Church unit they are given (and units often give any excess and unneeded funds to other units that need it more) and we have the general funds. In giving to any fund of the Church, we help to further the work of the Lord. And there are people well enough off who give back to the Church with major donations, some of which they request to be earmarked for finding sites and building temples. I heard a few years ago a rumor to the effect that, even if no tithing were paid at all by anyone for the next 10+ years, the Church, just on the resources it has in abundant reserve, would have enough to fully fund and build meetinghouses and temples. Don't know if that's a Mormon Urban legend or not. But it would make sense. I also fully acknowledge President Hinckley's statement when he said that the Church was not rich. Perhaps by this he meant that we are a lay clergy, but I could see some interpreting that to mean that the Church is poor. But there is abundant evidence that this is not the case.

Christopher Nicholson said...

Random question - how come there's only one YSA congregation in all of Africa, and it's in Botswana of all places? I would think that other locations like Abidjan and Kinshasa have enough members/stakes that they would be able to create one, if not several.

John Pack Lambert said...

The growth rate of the Church in Latin American is more complex than calling it "stagnant". The Church has seen several new stakes and districts in Brazil this year, showing the Church is growing, if not quite as fast as in the 1990s. Also, there have been 5 new stakes in Honduras, including the San Pedro Sula East Mission going from 4 to 7 stakes. The Phillipines also continues to see new stakes, and hopefully will get to 100 next year.

John Pack Lambert said...

President Monson's comments about a stalling in temple announcement may have actually indicated a decision to postpone announcing temples until they were futher along in the planning process than had previously been the case.

John Pack Lambert said...

I believe the plan for conversion of the Cattle Ranch in Florida to residential proerty is an 80-year-plan. I am not sure any of the conversion will happen less than 20-years in the future.

John Pack Lambert said...

Actually outside the US and Canada there are very few YSA congregations. YSA congregations reflect certain cultural and social realities. In areas where the Church is growing a lot, like Abijan, a large percentage of members are YSAs, so it really does not make sense to have seperate units for them.

Mike Johnson said...

I spoke with two members of the Tall Cedars Ward and a member of the Ashburn Ward today. They all told me that unlike the Algonkian and the Stirling Park wards that left the Ashburn Virginia Stake a few weeks ago in the big northern Virginia reorganization, the Tall Cedars Ward journey was a little different. First, they were told they were transferred to the Centreville Virginia Stake. Then they were told they were not transferred, but were invited to the Centreville Virginia Stake conference for this weekend. The member from Ashburn expressed that he was surprised to see Tall Cedars people in the Ashburn Stake Center last Sunday for Temple recommend interviews and learned then they had not been transferred yet, but would be attending the Centreville Stake Conference. However, all agreed that the invitation to the Centreville Stake Conference means they are involved in the stake reorganization and will not be in the Ashburn Stake as of tomorrow.

I was also told that the Tall Cedars Ward has 46 high priests on the rolls with 44 of them active (this came from the High Priest Group Leader). They have between 340 and 410 in Sacrament each week (this came from apparently a clerk--he self identified as the one who does the count each week). They also believed that they were going to be in a stake with the Warrenton wards (1st and 2nd) and the Gainesville wards (Vint Hill, Gainesville, Haymarket). They thought their ward would split soon, perhaps as early as tomorrow. My guess is that the whatever stake they end up in tomorrow, will be the one that will decide how the ward would be split. Or course, that might be why there was confusion about going, then not going, as the Ashburn Stake may have still been awaiting approval to divide the ward.

James said...

The latest comments posted above have been inspiring and have given me much food for thought. It is wonderful and awe-inspiring to see so many fantastic developments and growth milestones in the Church. I am glad I came across this blog when I did. This has been an excellent outlet for finding out about the latest Church growth milestones. And I am so grateful to Matt for always allowing such vigorous and extensive discussion of such developments, to say nothing of his giving me permission to share important posts from my blog in the comments here. I hope that all of us can work together to flood the world with the remarkably wonderful news that is the gospel, and that the discussion of the Lord's work in these last days can continue to inspire and uplift all those who take part in or read about it. Thanks to you all for your wonderful comments.

Johnathan Whiting said...

@L. Chris Jones and Eduardo Clinch:

I'm finally getting back here with the info I learned about the "People of the Book" from my Muslim friend.

My question to her: "Someone asked me a question about the Islamic view of the "People of the Book," and I thought you would be the best person to ask. So, essentially, the questions were: "What is the definition of the 'People of the Book.'" (i.e. Does it refer to Jews and Christians?)and "Does this teaching come from the Quran, and if so, where is it located?" Thanks. :)"

Her answer: "The people of the book are generally speaking Christians and Jews. However, it has a deeper meaning and refers to any people that have received divine revelation through a prophet of God. Just keep in mind that this is in accordance with the islamic view of who can be a prophet. So, the followers of Moses, peace be upon him, would be considered "people of the book" and the followers of Noah, peace be upon him, would be considered "people of the book" but the followers of Mirza Ghulam Ahmad are not considered "people of the book" although he claimed prophecy and started his own religion. Another thing to note is that some scholars of islam have included Buddhists as people of the book because the Budda was most likely a prophet and there are more prophets of the past than we have record of. Sabians and Zoroastrians are also considered to be people of the book.

Just note that lay muslims often only know that Christians and Jews are people of the book but they don't know more than that.

This wikipedia article has good information regarding what muslims believe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People_of_the_Book

Where does this teaching come from? It comes directly from the Qur'an, but the problem here is how do we know what it means? The specifics come from other verses of the Qur'an, and then ahadith which are sayings of the Prophet Muhammad peace be upon him.

The status of the people of the book and their relevance to muslims would be found in books of islamic law and spirituality. For example, we can eat the food of the people of the book under certain conditions: http://seekershub.org/ans-blog/2011/03/19/can-we-eat-meat-slaughtered-by-jews-and-christians/ and muslim men can marry non-muslim women if they are from the people of the book under certain conditions as well http://seekershub.org/ans-blog/2011/02/03/what-is-islams-stance-on-muslim-men-and-women-marrying-non-muslims/

I hope this helps. Let me know if you have any other questions."

Nathanial Warenski said...

Gainesville Virginia stake was created today.

Matt said...

Colorado Springs High Plains Stske created!

Here are the details for the new stake, which I am a part of!

Black Forest Ward
Calhan Ward
Falcon Ward
Indigo Ranch Ward
Meridian Ward
Oakwood Ward
Stetson Hills Ward
Woodmen Hills Ward
Limon Branch

Eduardo Clinch said...

Different Muslims have different takes on ahl al-kitab, just like different Christians interpret the Israelites differently.
I am glad to understand the tribes of Jacob the way we do; we do a lot of our missionary work to fulfill our covenants to unite all the sons and daughters of Abraham.
I wonder about the 12 tribes of Ishmael...

Mike Johnson said...

Matt, good news on the Colorado Springs High Plains Stake

Nathaniel, do you have details on the new Gainesville Virginia Stake. I was looking into going to the Centreville Stake Conference in the Gainsville building, but I could get back to my ward in time.

Mike Johnson said...

Matt, all 9 units are from the Colorado Springs East Stake, leaving that stake just the Colorado Springs 11th and 15th wards and the Ridgeview Ward. I take it a lot of units moved from the North to the East stakes. The North stake had had 15 wards, so roughly 6 wards could have moved from north to east (which would leave each with 9 wards). My guess is the YSA wards would have been moved to the East Stake.

Matt said...

Four wards were transferred to the east stake - none of them are YSA units. Wards moved into the east stake include: Briargate, Chapel Hills, Explorer Park, and Fairfax.

Bryce .Gillespie said...

I wonder if a lot of the stack growth for the year is thanks to stacks that have needed to be split for some time, or is it because of higher activity rates though out the church. Ether way it is a good sign of the growth of the church.

James said...

I am gratified beyond expression to have read of this monumental Church growth. As many of you might be aware, Rick Satterfield, known on Blogger as TempleRick, announced today on his website that the Church will be announcing an official site for the Harare Zimbabwe temple within the first few months of 2017, and that a groundbreaking for that temple was expected to follow shortly thereafter. In light of that news, and in commemoration of the Christmas season, I have done two new blog posts. I am posting the address of the homepage of my blog, and I welcome and invite all who would like to read and comment on these new posts to do so. Much to my gratification, surprise, and delight, the post I did recently about possible locations that are imminent for a temple announcement has had the most views and the most comments of any other post I have done during the entire time I've been blogging. Continued feedback and discussion on that post, both on this blog and at the location of that particular post on my blog, are also welcome. Check out the latest at the address below. That said, my thanks, as always, goes out to Matt for giving me permission to share his posts and to advertise my posts in the comments on this blog. Thanks again to you all.

http://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com

miro said...

In the article about the creation of the new stake in Zimbabwe

http://www.sundaymail.co.zw/latter-day-saints-in-expansion-drive/

It sais, that we (lds church) have over 3300 stakes. But in the statistisc provieded by

http://www.ldschurchtemples.com/statistics/units/

Only 3264 stakes are numbered (also cdol.lds.org only list 3260 stakes)

Does anyoune of you know or has an idea how this big diffenece of around 40 stakes comes to pass?

Mike Johnson said...

Lazy reporting by the newspaper.

Ryan Searcy said...

It doesn't look like Moses Lake or Cauayan are happening any time soon. There is no Facebook chatter at all about any new stakes in those areas.

James said...

Just because there is no chatter about such stakes does not mean they are not likely to happen. Perhaps they are wanting to keep any news about it under wraps until it happens. I'm sure members who might know about it have been asked not to say anything about it until then. We still have a possibility of new stakes, in these cities or others, being organized next week. My advice would be to wait and see what develops. It is not unheard of to hear nothing about a stake creation before it happens, or for local members to be silent on the issue. Either way, we will know for sure next Sunday. Even if it doesn't happen in those areas, there is always the possibility that another stake or two may be organized next week. As for me, I am content to wait until more is known.

Jodi Warenski said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jodi Warenski said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Nathanial Warenski said...

Mike, no I do not have details. I am in the Oakton Stake and we had stake conference at the ssame time.

Levi said...

I haven't seen chatter about the Goodyear Arizona Stake being split, and that was suppose to happen this weekend.

Levi said...

Also, when it was first mentioned that the Moses Lake Stake was splitting, a new Stake Presidency was called only one or two weeks before. I am starting to suspect that the split won't happen, and that runout was only misinformation about the new Stake Presidency.

Matt said...

Thanks for the updates everyone. I have updated the New Stakes and Districts Organized in 2016 list. We now have 98 new stakes organized in 2016, with one more stake to be created before the end of the year - Rajahmundry India on December 18th. We have experienced a net increase of 90 stakes for the year thus far. Ward and branch growth has significantly lagged behind stake growth as already discussed in previous posts/comments. Hopefully 2017 will be a big year for congregational growth. Based upon reports from West Africa, we will see MANY more new wards and branches organized in the next few months - including some places where we have not see much growth at all such as Jos, Nigeria. Also, ward and branch creations have really accelerated in Brazil in the past couple months. However, we are continuing to see steady numbers of units discontinued in California, Venezuela, Colombia, and Utah.

L. Chris Jones said...

Utah is growing. In the much stake growth is in new neighborhoods.people are moving from older areas. For example new stakes in South Jordan & Draper and stakes discontinued in Salt Lake City.

L. Chris Jones said...

Utah is growing. In the much stake growth is in new neighborhoods.people are moving from older areas. For example new stakes in South Jordan & Draper and stakes discontinued in Salt Lake City.

Matt said...

Thus far in 2016, congregational growth in Utah has reached its lowest percentage growth rate ever at 0.70%. Annual congregational growth rates typically ranged between 2-4% in the 1990s and early 2000s, and declined to 1-2% for most years since 2007. Although the Church in Utah reported a decline of 0.4% in 2011, this was attributed to wide scale realignment of YSA wards and branches. As a result, 2011 is not a year that should be examined when looking at trends in congregational growth in Utah during the past two decades. Decelerating congregational growth in 2016 is a significant concern. If the Church in Utah during 2016 experienced the same percentage growth in congregations as in 2015, we would expect to see a net increase of 60 congregations. However, we have only experienced a net increase of 35 congregations as of this morning.

John Pack Lambert said...

I am hoping 2016 is just a fluke for Utah congregation growth, and we see many more congregations created in 2016.

Here in Michigan the ward I am in had a baptism just over a week ago and the man was ordained to the priesthood yesterday. A woman and her two daughters are being baptized this coming Sunday. So the work is moving forward.

TempleRick said...

Thanks goes to Matt for finding the article on the Harare stake creation with information on the temple. Great news!

John Pack Lambert said...

The Paynesville Liberia District, one of 3 stakes and one district in the Monrovia Metro Area, got its 10th branch last weekend.

Jeff Steed said...

I am not worried about Utah.

The Church tends to focus on making new congregations and stakes in certain areas in certain years. Clearly it is difficult to keep up with the growth of the Church worldwide to the point that it appears the Church rotates focusing its new unit and congregation efforts. This just wasn't Utah's year -- not because there wasn't the growth, but because the Church was not focused on creating new stakes in that area this year.

Take the Layton/Kaysville area as an example. Most stakes and wards in that area are literally bursting. So much so that the the Church cannot keep up with new meetinghouse construction. We even have some stakes in that area with 14 wards now, clearly big enough to divide out. But why no divisions? The only rational explanation is that it is a "not this year we have too much going on elsewhere right now" matter.

From what I can tell, new Stake and new Ward creation in Utah is about to enter a banner year.

Ohhappydane33 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ohhappydane33 said...

No, the stakes in Layton/Kaysville are not that large. The only two that comes close to 14 wards are Syracuse West and Farmington West with 12 wards. The biggest stakes in both Layton and Kaysville each have 10 wards. One could argue that 10 is larger than average, but not extraordinarily so, as there are hundreds of stakes in the world with 10 wards.

Eduardo Clinch said...

I see how the Gainesville Stake has only 6 wards; I predict that the Tall Cedars Ward, at least, is looking to split relatively soon. With an average of 500 members each, they probably have over 3,000 members, but based on residential growth they should grow faster than the wards closer to DC.
Loudoun County is probably left with 80 percent of its population within the Ashburn Stake. Only 3 buildings. I know Oakton Stake has a plot purchased near Hunter Mill Road. Maybe Ashburn Stake is looking for a new place, too.

BYULAW said...

No scientific data to back this up, but I have observed that a lot of the recent housing developments, at least in Salt Lake County, take the form of apartment complexes, townhouses, retirement communities, and other non-single-family homes. I read a news article in the Salt Lake Tribune a couple months ago that there was a high demand for renting in the Salt Lake Valley. Perhaps housing developers are putting more resources toward building townhouses and apartments instead of single family homes because of this high demand? If this is the case, does the church treat such housing developments the same way they treat single family residences with respect to ward splitting? I'm not aware of any policy, but my observation, at least in Utah, is that there is a hesitancy to create wards where the majority of the members live in housing units other than single-family residencies. I suspect this has to do with leadership and stability. If there is a lot of turnover with members moving in and out frequently, there may not be much confidence that a new ward will be able to function long term. I've also been in church meetings where leadership has discussed the difficulty in motivating members to invest time and resources to fellowshipping a less active member who is renting and likely to move out of the ward in six months. So, perhaps activity rates are lower in wards with non-traditional housing? If so, this could also be a factor in why fewer new units are being created in Utah.

Ohhappydane33 said...

Interesting theory BYULAW. I would be looking at presumably your current city of Provo to study that theory because Provo arguably has the highest concentration of membership living in apartments than probably anywhere else in the world. Students at BYU can and do change apartments every semester. But it's not just BYU. Lots of other young adult members that are not required to attend church live in Provo/Orem (i.e, UVU). Thus, there are many, many wards that are almost entirely (if not completely) rental housing with many of their leaders living outside ward boundaries.

BYULAW said...

On a side note, I did live in a ward outside of Utah where many of the members were students from out of state pursuing graduate degrees. The ward was fairly large, at least compared to other wards in the area, but there was no desire to split the ward. At the time I suspected that this was due to the constant turnover of the members and the unreliability of whether enough new families would move into the ward each school year to replace the number of families that moved away. Are these factors considered when the church decides whether to split a ward? I have never been involved with splitting a ward to know what factors are considered apart from the number of full tithe paying melchizedek priesthood holder requirements and total number of members.

Mike Johnson said...

Handbook 1 only has the active full tithe paying Melchizedek Priesthood holders and total number of members.

That said, I think local leaders care about other factors as well. Our ward split after having built to the point where we could not fit everybody attending in the chapel, cultural hall, and font room. But, we only had about 500 members in the ward with about 90% active and 65% average Sacrament Meeting attendance. A member of the stake presidency told me that our ward was the stake's biggest problem (I remember responding that that is a good problem to have). I suspect if we had had 600 or more members, more than 30 AFTPMPHs, and 200 attending there would have been no incentive for the stake to put in the application to split the ward.

I remember that in my brother's ward in Cottonwood Creek, the ward had a portion of a big apartment complex. My brother told me that most of the wards in the stake had a piece of the apartment complex. I asked why they didn't carve wards out of the apartment complex and his answer was that it had too much turnover.

James said...

As expected, this conversation continues to be most enlightening and inspiring. I would like to personally thank all who have been contributing. I have learned more in the last week about the nuances of Church growth than I've ever known during the entirety of my now almost 30 years of life. Thanks for contributing so much to my knowledge and understand on the subject.

coachodeeps said...

The apartment complex idea is a valid point. In Layton there are a few large complexes that were divided among the various wards due to turnover, inactivity rates, lower percentages of AFTPMPHs and welfare concerns. This gave balance to what could have been several very well to do economically and much fewer concerns of the issues listed above while others the Bishop would have been greatly challenged to keep up wits the demand rise things bring.

I have been involved with a stake creating a few new wards in the Layton area along with two stakes shrinking the number of wards. Each are unique in situation. When speaking to the stake president about how they came to the conclusion to split the wards he said it was based on several factors including AFTPMPHs, number of youth per ward and making the boundaries contiguous and somewhat following the boundaries of other governmenthings areas or school boundaries.

This was similar to when I discussed the shrinking of the wards in a stake. This also included the idea of how many active members were in the boundaries and the potential of move outs (apartment complexes and age of members-to factor in death), along with home teaching numbers.

James said...

For a variety of reasons (primarily additional research and study I have done and the many, many wonderful comments on my work), I have felt a need to revise, revisit, and post anew my updated list of locations that I feel are most imminent to have a temple soon announced. My previous post on the subject generated by far the most views and the most comments from any other posts I have done during the entirety of the time I have been blogging. I would very much appreciate any feedback on this updated and revised list. I would prefer, as I have always said, if that feedback was given directly at the location of that new blog posts, but, as I've also repeatedly said, I have no objection whatsoever, as long as Matt doesn't have a problem with it, if that feedback comes on any or all of Matt's most recent posts. Thanks to all who will so comment. Your feedback is the reason why I can do what I have been able to do, to whatever degree of success I have achieved. However that feedback comes, I hope that no one will hesitate at all to let me know their thoughts on my work. Such feedback helps me in my efforts to continue to fine-tune my predictions to be the very best they can be. Thanks for visiting!

http://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com/2016/12/revised-list-of-cities-for-which-i-feel.html

Christopher said...

What are the temples projected to be dedicated in 2017?

James said...

The following four temples are projected to be completed in 2017: Paris France (scheduled to be dedicated on May 20), Meridian Idaho, Cedar City Utah, and Tucson Arizona. Additionally, one rededication is anticipated to take place in 2017 for the Jordan River Utah Temple. Among my many temple-related blog post that I have recently done is one estimating the timetable in which temple events may be announced and take place within 2017 and 2018. I would welcome any feedback on those posts. Given the new information from Rick Satterfield about the imminence of a site announcement and a subsequent groundbreaking taking place for the Harare Zimbabwe temple within the early months of 2017, another such update will likely be needed as soon as more information is available. Hope that answers your question. Let me know if you need more information. In the meantime, if it helps, I am including once again a link to the post I did regarding the timetable of such future events being announced and scheduled. As I said, with the information about the Harare Zimbabwe Temple that has recently been made available, it will likely be necessary for me to revisit this as a topic for yet another new blog post. For the moment, the link to the latest version I did of it is posted below. Again, I hope you will enjoy it and that this information proves to be helpful to you. Thanks.

http://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com/2016/12/altered-predictions-for-when-most.html

Mike Johnson said...

Paris is set for dedication on 21 May 2017.

Meridian, Cedar City, and Tucson are likely to be dedicated in 2017.

Under renovation now, Idaho Falls is set for rededication on 4 June 2017. Jordan River likely will be dedicated in 2017.

James said...

Mike Johnson, for some reason, in my comment above, I completely spaced the Idaho Falls Idaho Temple rededication. Thanks for that reminder.

James said...

For what it's worth, I have also done one additional blog post just barely regarding my best-guess estimate for when future site announcements and groundbreakings may take place within the next year. I would appreciate any and all feedback on this post as well. Thanks.

http://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com/2016/12/my-best-guess-estimation-for-when.html

L. Chris Jones said...

Encourage people to help index for family search. It does not take a huge time commitment. Even a few minutes here and there will help tremendously. This is important to making records searchable in preparing names for the temple.

James said...

I have, upon recommendation from a comment on my blog, added three possible future temple sites in Chile (in either Antofagasta, Valparaiso, or Santiago (which would be a a 2nd temple for that city, and which I feel cannot be ruled out or overlooked, given the recent precedent set by the announcement of another temple for Lima Peru)) I would welcome continued feedback on any or all of these points. Thanks.

Eduardo Clinch said...

Antofogasta would be the best place for a new Chilean temple, in my opinion, in the spirit of helping membership go to a temple within two hundred miles. The northern regions of Chile are very far away from Santiago or further north Arequipa.
Vina del Mar would be better for access than a second Santiago Temple as well. Even though the new Concepcion Temple will be great for the south, a temple in Osorno or Puerto Montt or even further down towards Punta Arenas would be needed for member access. Neuquen would be a decent option for the Chilean side.
I hope the Concepcion Temple boosts activity across the south.
It needs it.

James said...

Interesting thoughts to be sure. Thanks, Eduardo! I could definitely see a case for one or possibly several additional Chilean temples within the next little while. Antofagasta would make a lot of sense in terms of the distance issue. Vina del Mar is an excellent option for the reasons you outlined. I could also see the case for a temple in Osorno, Puerto Montt, or Punta Arenas. I have listed a possible temple for Neuquen for a variety of reasons. I appreciate the feedback, both on my blog and here. I will continue to consider my options. Eduardo, you are only the second person to comment on a possible additional temple or two for Chile. I am waiting to hear more about the growth in Chile and about other factors affecting where such a future temple might be located. I will keep your above comment in mind and do my level best to make the most informed choice possible about what I believe the best location for Chile's next temple should be. Since I just barely mentioned the option on my blog six hours ago or less, I want to give plenty of others the opportunity to give feedback about their thoughts on this issue before I attempt to reach any final decision of any kind. Thanks, as always, for the feedback.

coachodeeps said...

I live in the boundaries of the Jordan River Temple. I have heard from multiple people that the renovation is expected to take longer than first thought due to complications. Perhaps this would push the dedications out to early 2018.

James said...

That is what TempleRick is forecasting. I have had many reasons to do several rapid-fire blog posts on a variety of topics within the last 48 hours alone. I would appreciate any continued views and feedback of those posts. One of them was an annual post I have done around Christmastime. Many of them have been temple-related. A couple of them have been about the struggles my wife and I are having on health and financial fronts. As a result of these struggles, I would very much appreciate any and all prayers on our behalf. I so very much appreciate Matt being willing to allow me to advertise these posts on my blog. I include the address for those who have not read any of my comments previously made to advertise my blog posts. Thanks.

http://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com

James said...

We have had a most happy and miraculous resolution to some of our struggles, I am happy to report. The nature of the miracle we received is almost overwhelming. You can read all the details in my latest comment on my most recent blog post. Thanks to all who offered prayers and expressions of sympathy and support.

John Pack Lambert said...

I meant one of 3 districts and 1 stake for the Paynesville Liberia District in the Monrovia metro area.

John Pack Lambert said...

There are a few cases in the Wasatch front area where they form branches that cover apartment complexes. This is fairly rare. At one point in downtown Salt Lake in the Ensign stake they had a designated ward for families with children between about 8 and 18 because there were so few children of that age in the entire stake.

I know trying to balance number of youths in a ward is sometimes done, as is sometimes the motivation behind stake boundary realignments.

On the other hand here in Michigan being a renter does not mean someone is likely to leave the ward soon. It more often means they will move multiple times within the ward.

John Pack Lambert said...

In Midvale Utah there are some non-contiguous wards. Also, there were non-contiguous wards in the Provo Utah Sharon East Stake when I was in that stake back in 2005. It is a bit less complex now with less BYU owned married student housing to worry about aligning.