Monday, April 4, 2016

New Temples Announcement - Analysis

Belem, Brazil
The Belem Brazil Temple is the Church's ninth temple to be announced in Brazil and the second temple to be announced for the Amazon Basin. Missionaries serving in the Brazil Belem Mission have speculated that a temple would be announced in Belem for many years due to distance from the nearest operating temple in Manaus. The new temple is the Church's first temple in Para State - previously the third most populous Brazilian state without a temple with 8.2 million inhabitants. The Belem Brazil Temple will likely service 10 stakes and two districts in the eastern Amazon. There are currently five stakes in the Belem metropolitan area.

The Church in Brazil continues to report steady growth in many areas. Potential for future growth remains high. A recent article in the Deseret news noted that Elder Claudio R.M. Costa stated, “My vision for the church in Brazil in 50 years is 1,000 stakes and hundreds of missions.” Currently the Church in Brazil has 259 stakes, 38 districts, and 34 missions. Prospects appear favorable for the announcement of additional temples in Brazil within the coming years in locations such as Belo Horizonte, Brasilia, and Salvador. Brazil currently ties with Canada as the country with the third most temples.

Quito, Ecuador
Ecuador was previously the country with the most members with only one temple prior to the announcement of the Quito Ecuador Temple. There are currently six stakes in the Quito metropolitan area. The new temple will likely service 12 stakes and one district in northern Ecuador.

The new temple has a special significance due to its close proximity to the Otavalo (Imbabura Highland) Quichua people. The Otavalo have exhibited strong receptivity to the Church since proselytism began in the late 1960s. Missionaries and members report that the two stakes in the small city of Otavalo number among the strongest and most self-sufficient in the Church in Ecuador. For more information on LDS outreach among the Otavalo, click here.

Lima, Peru (Second Temple)
The Lima metropolitan area is the Church's first metropolitan area outside of the United States to have two temples as a result of the announcement of a second temple in Lima. The official name for the new temple has yet to be released. The Church in Lima operates 42 stakes - the second most stakes in any metropolitan area outside of the United States after Mexico City, Mexico. The current Lima Peru Temple is located in the La Molina District on the east-central side of the metropolitan area. North-central Lima, such as in the Independencia or Los Olivos neighborhoods, appears the most likely location for the future temple. The new temple may service 20-30 stakes in the Lima area. A case study that examines LDS growth trends in Lima can be found here.

There are now four temples in Peru announced or in operation. Peru now ranks as the country with the sixth most temples.

Harare, Zimbabwe
The Harare Zimbabwe Temple is the Church's seventh temple to be announced in Africa. Based on year-end 2014 membership data, the Church in Zimbabwe was the country with the second most members without a temple prior to the April 2016 announcement. The Church in Zimbabwe has experienced more conservative growth than many other nearby African nations although periods of rapid growth have occurred. There are currently six stakes, two districts, and 72 official congregations (35 wards, 37 branches). There are currently three stakes in Harare. The Church organized its first stake in Zimbabwe in 1999. At least eight stakes and seven districts in Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, and northern Mozambique appear likely to be assigned to the new temple.

27 comments:

Deivisas said...

With the Harare Zimbabwe Temple, there will be 7 Temples in various stages in Africa. It is great to see the work of Salvation progressing around the world!:

Aba Nigeria Temple
Abidjan Ivory Coast Temple
Accra Ghana Temple
Durban South Africa Temple
Harare Zimbabwe Temple
Johannesburg South Africa Temple
Kinshasa Democratic Republic of the Congo Temple

John Pack Lambert said...

I still think it highly likely that some stakes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo will be assigned to the Harare Temple.

On another note with the economic conditions in Zimbabwe I am guessing that it has faced large numbers of Church members moving away especially to South Africa.

John Pack Lambert said...

I still think it highly likely that some stakes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo will be assigned to the Harare Temple.

On another note with the economic conditions in Zimbabwe I am guessing that it has faced large numbers of Church members moving away especially to South Africa.

Jerimiah Bullfrog said...

These are all good locations and it is interesting to hear the reasons likely behind the decisions. I know this is the Lord's Church and it is great to see these new temples being announced.

Still, I am very surprised at no new temple in the Layton or Kaysville area of Utah. Both the Bountiful and Ogden Temples seem to be bursting far beyond capacity, and yet new congregations or stakes are added to these areas almost monthly. West Farmington, West Kaysville, West Layton, Syracuse, and West Weber Counties are growing like mad. And, yet, there is only one temple in all of Davis County and only one temple in Weber County.

I would be surprised if there is not a new temple announced soon in this area.

Pascal Friedmann said...

The Church in Weber County is actually shrinking, and activity rates essentially wherever you go (aside from the North Ogden/Pleasant View area) are low to abysmal. The Ogden Temple is not very busy either. As someone who works full time and who therefore needs to move his weekly Temple trips to either week nights or Saturdays (both of which should be busy times), I can't remember an occasion where I had to wait to get into a session. Most of the time, 15 to 20 people are in the same session as me, unless I run into a living ordinance or ward temple trip of some sort. Ever since the Layton stakes are gone to Bountiful, it has become a lot more quiet than it already was.

I can't talk about Bountiful much, but I don't see a second Davis County temple anytime soon. The active membership growth north of SLC really isn't there.

Jerimiah Bullfrog said...

I can't speak for Ogden as much as I can speak for Bountiful. Though, Ogden is one of the 6 fastest growing cities in the U.S. right now per capita according to Forbes and Fortune. If the Ogden Temple is truly not as busy as you say it is, then I doubt it will remain that way for long.

As far as Bountiful is concerned, it is literally bursting at the seams from what I can tell. I took my daughter to the Bountiful Temple to do baptisms for the dead one EARLY Sunday morning last week. It took us well over 2.5 hours just to do 5 temple names for baptism and confirmations. They would not let us do more due to how busy the temple was. We had to park on the street because both temple parking lots (upper and lower) were full to capacity. There was a literal ring of parked cars around the temple. And, yes, endowment sessions are pretty much PACKED unless you go on a weekday during normal work hours.

As far as growth in Davis, there is massive growth right now in Layton, East Kaysville, and West Farmington. We live in West Kaysville. They just divided our stake last year to create a new stake. Only a year later, and our new stake has already added a new full ward. More developments are already underway in West Kaysville.

That being said, I think that Davis County actually is in need of another temple -- especially in North Davis County. For most residents of Davis County, the Bountiful Temple is really the same distance as the Salt Lake Temple (as far as travel time is concerned). As I understand it, the Bountiful Temple currently covers the cities of Bountiful, North Salt Lake, Woods Cross, West Bountiful, Centerville, Farmington, Kaysville, Fruit Heights, and most if not all of Layton (maybe even parts of Syracuse?). These areas are all highly active areas and have some of the highest activity rates in the Church -- especially North Salt Lake, Bountiful, Centerville, Farmington and Kaysville. Moreover, there are large new home developments in East North Salt Lake, West North Salt Lake, West Bountiful, West Farmington, West Kaysville and West Layton. One new development on the border of West Layton and West Kaysville is set to rival Daybreak.

Maybe you are right about Ogden. But I can't imagine it will stay that way for long as North Ogden and Pleasant View continue to grow. But, there is a great need in Davis County. I honestly can't imagine the Bountiful Temple becoming more busy than it already is, and yet there is massive residential development going on in no less than 6 cities in Davis County. With the new West Davis Corridor freeway, that is only going to continue to expand.

Jerimiah Bullfrog said...

Correction, I said Sunday morning. I meant Saturday morning (typo). Yes, it was a Saturday, but it was really early and it was PACKED. We might try Ogden this week if it really is not as crowded as you say it is.

Jerimiah Bullfrog said...

Also, put it this way. The population of Utah County is just over 500,000 and (with the development in Lehi) is fast approaching 600,000. The population of Davis County is well over 300,00 and (with the growth in West Farmington, West Kaysville, and West Layton), is fast approaching 400,000. Most people don't recognize this, but Layton alone now has about the same population as St. George -- and the VAST majority of it is LDS.

Further, both Utah County and Davis County are two of the most highly active "mormon" counties in the state and have similar rates of active LDS constituents -- i.e., both counties have membership rates exceeding 80% of the population.

Based on these numbers alone, Davis County should have slightly more than a half to maybe even a full third of the number of temples that Utah County has. Utah County has 4 very large temples located at different locations throughout the county. Davis County has 1 temple that is located at the very far South end of the county and, unless you live in NSL, Bountiful, or Centerville, it is fairly "out of the way."

Based on these numbers alone as they currently stand, Davis County is due for another temple -- and, preferably one on the North end of the county (i.e., Layton or Kaysville area).

James Anderson said...

Weber/Davis has long had issues, partly because of the air base, which has been on the bubble for years with potential closings many times. Although there are none being considered now, some believe it's only a matter of time before the other shoe drops, and down goes a major employment base for some time until the land can be repurposed.

That could account for the sluggish growth or decline even.

But the temple not being as busy is somewhat of a surprise, as I thought Ogden being busy was one of the factors in relation to Brigham City being announced and built. Attendance, regardless of population, is going to be considered before announcing another temple in north Davis County or anywhere near Weber County.

Jerimiah Bullfrog said...

Ogden not being as busy is also surprising to me. The Ogden Temple District currently has a whopping 63 stakes which, by default, should make it one of the busiest temples in Utah, if not the entire Church. I think only the Jordan River Temple has a larger district than Ogden as far as number of Stakes is concerned. Just by comparison, the Payson Utah temple only has 27 stakes in its current temple district.

Joseph said...

At the end of the first quarter new units are up by +27 (+16.9%) at a rate of 14.4/week at 13 Weeks. To match last years new units will require a minimum of 11.9 new units per week.
Stakes and districts are at +9 for this time last year.


Unit Update
20 Mar
Seweke 3rd Branch, San Pedro Cote d'Ivoire District (B:7)

27 Mar
Batiama Branch, Bo Sierra Leone West District (B:8)
Nduvuibu Branch, Bo Sierra Leone West District (B:8)

3 Apr
Awe Branch, Nigeria Lagos Mission (B:3, D:2, S:7)
Bagong Silangan Ward, Fairview Philippines Stake (W:7)
Kemerovo Branch, Novosibirsk Russia District (B:10)
Williams Landing Ward (Tongan), Melbourne Australia Wyndham Stake (B:1, W:7)


YTD 191(13.4/week*14) +7 - Total 34,338(+8) (Net 136 71%)
Africa 55, 28.8% (+4) - Total 1824 (+4)
Asia 3, 1.6% (0) - Total 934 (0)
America Central 12, 6.3% (0) - Total 3930 (0)
America North 66, 34.6% (0) - Total 9379 (0)
America South 10, 45.2% (+1) - Total 6339 (-1)
Europe 6, 3.1% (+1) - Total 1714 (+1)
Pacific 14, 7.3% (+2) - Total 2746 (+4)
Utah & Idaho 25(19), 13.1(9.1)% (0) - Total 6930(5717)(0)

Totals no-sensitive (Net +9)
Areas Temples Miss Stakes Dist Wards Branch Totals
Global 25 150 419 3,194 549 22,668 7,358 34,363
Us/Can 10 82 131 1,610 10 12,633 2,055 16,531
US n/a 74 124 1,562 7 12,295 1,906 15,968
Utah n/a 16 10 579 1 4,717 327 5,650
Canada n/a 8 7 48 3 338 149 553
Out 15 68 288 1,584 539 10,035 5,303 17,832

John Pack Lambert said...

Canpinas Brazil and Mexico City both have more stakes than Ogden. Lima might as well. However Lima has two tempkes in the works. Campinas has Rio that will take lots of stakes from it and Belem will probably take one as well. Mexico City would seem a higher priority candidate than Ogden especially since there are people in the Mexico City Temple district who have a drive of 10 hours or so.

On the other hand I do know that Syracuse Utah has huge wards. A family just moved to my ward from there and they said their ward their had a lot more people at Church. Our ward is one of the biggest if not the biggest in my stake. I know some people are surprised it hasn't been split.

On the other hand the 14 year old daughter in the family I mentioned never went to do baptisms for the dead until she moved here. I don't know if it is because her ward in Utah was not as into organizing such, she just didn't go or because the Ogden Temple Baptistry is being overtaxed. My ward does at least 5 youth baptismal trips a year although we have so many youth only half can go at a time. The smaller temples have small baptistries that can only handle about 16 or so youth at once.

John Pack Lambert said...

How close is Bo Sierra Leone West to being a stake? I hope we see a temple announced for Sierra Leone before the decade is out.

coachodeeps said...

I grew up in the Layton area and went often to the Ogden and Bountiful Temples until I moved to the Salt Lake area. The Bountiful Temple was consistently busier than the Ogden Temple, however, this was before the Ogden Temple was rebuilt. My family says it is busier than it was, but there are several times they also had only a handful in a session. I wonder how much economics play a role in members attending the temple. Davis County seems to be a higher economic area than Ogden and Weber County. There are many older neighborhoods in Ogden/Weber that are usually either rentals or owned by lower income families.

One side thought about how busy the Bountiful Temple is currently might be due to the Jordan River Temple being renovated. I live in the Jordan River Temple district and it is just as easy to get to the Bountiful Temple as the Salt Lake Temple (due to downtown traffic/parking) and the length of a session in the Salt Lake Temple due to it being done by live actors and moving from room to room.

Though there are other options in the Oquirrh Mountain Temple and the Draper Temple, both of these (especially Oquirrh Mountain) are smaller temples and are currently taxed due to closing of Jordan River. My wife went recently to Oquirrh Mountain and had to wait 2 hours for a session. Mount Timp is the next closest and that is quite a drive and is busy in its own right. So, we go where we can and serve as we can, though the wait is longer than usual.

John Pack Lambert said...

Elder Dube in an email to the Deseret News included "the other part of the DR Congo" among the places that will be blesed by a temple in Harare. This to me is an even stronger indicator that Lumbubashi Stake and probably others in south-east DR Congo will be assigned to Harare.

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Ryan Searcy said...

By my estimates, Kinshasa will serve members in 4 missions - Luanda, Brazzaville, Kinshasa, and Mbuji-Mayi. Harare will serve members in 5 and a half missions - Kampala, Nairobi, Lubumbashi, Lusaka, Harare, and the northern half of Maputo.

Ryan Searcy said...

For Johannesburg, the Antananarivo mission will become the only distant mission from Johannesburg.

John Pack Lambert said...

Why would Antananarivo be left in the Johanesburg Temple district instead of being placed in the Durban Temple District? The 868 miles from Cape Town to Johannesburg exceed the 698 from Harare to Johanesburg. Windhoek is 857 miles from Johanesburg, but that involves crossing two international boundaries. I would guess that the Kasane Branch, at the far north of Botswana and in the Botswana/Namibia Mission, would be placed in the Harare Temple District. Even Francistown, Botswana, where there are 3 branches is closer to Harare than to Johanesburg.

John Pack Lambert said...

Looking at LDS maps for Africa it is pretty clear the Church has huge growth potential in many countries where missionaries are present. In Zambia for example, all the branches are in the central swath of the country. In the west there are cities like Mongo with just under 200,000 people and no branch. In the east/north (since Zambia slants north as you go east) Kasama is a city of about 200,000 and the business center and would seem a good place to form a branch.

Ryan Searcy said...

I'm not sure if I have checked if Madagascar would go to Durban. In the case of many places, closer does not mean faster. The Kasane Branch in northern Botswana showed a better travel time to Harare than Johannesburg, while the Francistown branches shows better travel to Johannesburg.

Eduardo Clinch said...

Perhaps a flight to J-burg is cheapest and fastest, more common. The Durban airport might not be good.

John Pack Lambert said...

With Francistown to Harare or Johanesburg it might depend on what the roads are like. I know in Cameroon at least as of 10 years ago travel to the Aba Temple could take over 60 hours because the roads even from Camerroon's capital into Nigeria were dirt and thus became mud at some times of the year. The same might apply in parts of Botswana or Zimbabwe. Even if it doesn't if Francistown to Johanesburg is mainly on modern highways with little or no cross trafic and the journey to Harare involves traveling on roads that go right through little villages and you get stopped at lots of local traffic lights or by cattle heards traveling across the road it is easy to see how a journey that is longer mile for mile would take less time.

With Madagascar to a temple in South Africa for all I know reasonably priced flights from Antanarivo to Durban always have a layover at Johanesburg.

John Pack Lambert said...

With Francistown to Harare or Johanesburg it might depend on what the roads are like. I know in Cameroon at least as of 10 years ago travel to the Aba Temple could take over 60 hours because the roads even from Camerroon's capital into Nigeria were dirt and thus became mud at some times of the year. The same might apply in parts of Botswana or Zimbabwe. Even if it doesn't if Francistown to Johanesburg is mainly on modern highways with little or no cross trafic and the journey to Harare involves traveling on roads that go right through little villages and you get stopped at lots of local traffic lights or by cattle heards traveling across the road it is easy to see how a journey that is longer mile for mile would take less time.

With Madagascar to a temple in South Africa for all I know reasonably priced flights from Antanarivo to Durban always have a layover at Johanesburg.

Ryan Searcy said...

Predicted District for the Durban South Africa Temple. With the groundbreaking ceremony taking place on Saturday, based on it's location, I have determined that the temple will service 3 stakes and 1 district:
Durban South Africa Stake
East London South Africa Stake
Hillcrest South Africa Stake
Richards Bay South Africa District
This district prediction will be updates roughly 2 weeks prior to dedication, which it is expected to be completed in about a year from now.

ManessDC said...

Ryan Searcy is right, closer does not always mean faster. I met a brother from Brazzaville, Congo, which is right across the river from Kinshasa. He wants to be sealed to his wife and children. The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the nearby temple will be, requires visas with significant application fees. He did the arithmetic, and figured it will be cheaper to fly his family to the eventual temple in Abidjan than pay for all the red tape to get them across the river.

Jonathan Ray Walther said...

FYI the 2nd temple in Lima has been confirmed to be in Los Olivos - http://mormonsud.org/fe/templos/templo-mormon-de-los-olivos-lima-peru/