Below are a list of districts that appear likely to become stakes within the foreseeable future. Predicting which districts are likely to become stakes is a difficult endeavor as there are many criteria that must be met which are not reported to the public such as the number of active, full-tithe paying Melchizedek Priesthood holders, the number of active members, and the number of branches that meet the criteria to become wards. Consequently, I have developed a three-tiered system to help more accurately predict which districts may become stakes. This system ranks the district from one to three (1=highly likely, 2=very likely, 3 somewhat likely) based on the likelihood of whether the district will soon become a stake. Information I have gathered to generate this list has come from studying congregational growth trends, obtaining reports from members and missionaries, and analyzing LDS growth trends in surrounding stakes and districts.
AFRICA
- Abak Nigeria (8 branches) - 1
- Abomosu Ghana (7 branches) - 2
- Akamkpa Nigeria (7 branches) - 3
- Antsirabe Madagascar (8 branches) - 2
- Beira Mozambique (12 branches) - 3
- Chyulu Kenya (10 branches) - 3
- Cotonou Benin (12 branches) - 1
- Ekpoma Nigeria (10 branches) - 1
- Eldoret Kenya (9 branches) - 3
- Ikot Ekpene Nigeria (7 branches) - 2
- Ile-Ife Nigeria (8 branches) - 2
- Jinja Uganda (7 branches) - 1
- Kolwezi Democratic Republic of Congo (7 branches) - 3
- Likasi Democratic Republic of Congo (9 branches) - 1
- Luanda Angola (5 branches) - 3
- Maputo Mozambique (6 branches) - 2
- Mbuji-Mayi Democratic Republic of Congo (8 branches) - 1
- Mutare Zimbabwe (6 branches) - 3
- Okpuala Ngwa Nigeria (8 branches) - 3
- Onitsha Nigeria (11 branches) - 1
- Toamasina Madagascar (5 branches) - 3
- Twifo Praso Ghana (6 branches) - 3
- Agoo Philippines (7 branches) - 2
- Aguilar Philippines (6 branches) - 3
- Alicia Philippines (8 branches) - 1
- Alaminos Philippines (6 branches) - 3
- Baliwag Philippines (5 branches) - 3
- Bambang Philippines (6 branches) - 3
- Bangalore India (6 branches) - 3
- Camiling Philippines West (6 branches) - 3
- Cauayan Philippines (5 branches) - 3
- Chia Yi Taiwan (6 branches) - 3
- Gingoog Philippines (6 branches) - 3
- Guimba Philippines (6 branches) - 2
- Hua Lien Taiwan (6 branches) - 3
- Iba Philippines (8 branches) - 2
- Iriga Philippines (6 branches) - 2
- Kuala Lumpur Malaysia (7 branches) - 2
- La Carlota Philippines (7 branches) - 1
- Ligao Philippines (6 branches) - 2
- Mangaldan Philippines (8 branches) - 1
- Morong Rizal Philippines (6 branches) - 3
- Naic Philippines (8 branches) - 1
- Olongapo Philippines (7 branches) - 1
- Panabo Philippines (5 branches) - 3
- Phnom Penh Cambodia East (5 branches) - 3
- Placer Philippines (8 branches) - 3
- San Antonio Philippines (6 branches) - 3
- San Carlos Philippines (7 branches) - 3
- Santa Cruz Zambales Philippines (6 branches) - 3
- Solano Philippines (6 branches) - 3
- Surigao Philippines (6 branches) - 3
- Tagbilaran Philippines (9 branches) - 3
- Tagum Philippines (6 branches) - 3
- Toledo Philippines (8 branches) - 3
- Ubon Thailand (9 branches) - 1
- Udorn Thailand (8 branches) - 1
- Ulaanbaatar Mongolia East (5 branches) - 2
- Azua Dominican Republic (6 branches) - 3
- Barahona Dominican Republic (7 branches) - 3
- Mandeville Jamaica (5 branches) - 3
- San Pedro Dominican Republic (8 branches) - 3
- Cayo Belize (7 branches) - 2
- Granada, Nicaragua (5 branches) - 3
- Liberia Costa Rica (6 branches) - 3
- Los Tuxtla México (9 branches) - 3
- Manzanillo México (7 branches) - 3
- Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua (5 branches) - 3
- San Benito Guatemala (9 branches) - 2
- Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa Guatemala (9 branches) - 3
- Senahu Guatemala (8 branches) - 2
- Solola Guatemala (7 branches) - 2
- Tamaulipas México Río Bravo (5 branches) - 3
- Ticul México (8 branches) - 3
- Algarve Portugal (7 branches) - 3
- Bucharest Romania (9 branches) - 3
- Novosibirsk Russia (9 branches) - 2
- Saratov Russia (9 branches) - 2
- León Spain (7 branches) - 3
- Santiago Spain (8 branches) - 3
- Laredo Texas (7 branches) - 2
OCEANIA
- Kwajalein Marshall Islands (5 branches) - 3
- Namoneas Chuuk (9 branches) - 2
- Port Vila Vanuatu (7 branches) - 1
- Taveuni Fiji (12 branches) - 3
- Alto Hospicio Chile (5 branches) - 3
- Apucarana Brazil (5 branches) - 3
- Armenia Colombia (6 branches) - 3
- Barranca Perú (6 branches) - 1
- Bell Ville Argentina (9 branches) - 1
- Boa Vista Brazil (5 branches) - 2
- Botucatu Brazil (6 branches) - 3
- Concepción Argentina (6 branches) - 3
- Coronel Oviedo Paraguay (8 branches) - 2
- Corrientes Argentina (6 branches) - 3
- Florida Uruguay (6 branches) - 3
- Guadalupe Perú La Libertad (6 branches) - 3
- Ibague Colombia (7 branches) - 2
- Juazeiro Brazil (5 branches) - 2
- Loja Ecuador (6 branches) - 3
- Manizales Colombia (5 branches) - 3
- Necochea Argentina (7 branches) - 3
- Olavarría Argentina (10 branches) - 3
- Ovalle Chile (7 branches) - 3
- Paita Perú (5 branches) - 3
- Palmira Colombia (7 branches) - 3
- Popayan Colombia (5 branches) - 3
- Rio Paraná Argentina (6 branches) - 3
- Santa Marta Colombia (8 branches) - 2
- Santa Rosa Ecuador (7 branches) - 2
- Talagante Chile (8 branches) - 2
- Talara Perú (5 branches) - 3
- Tarapoto Perú (5 branches) - 3
- Tarma Perú (7 branches) - 3
- Três Corações Brazil (8 branches) - 2
- Tulua Colombia (6 branches) - 3
- Virú Perú (5 branches) -3
10 comments:
Matt, I find this an interesting list. I just wanted to clarify a point:
>>>criteria that must be met which are not reported to the public such as the number of active, full-tithe paying Melchizedek Priesthood holders, the number of active members, and the number of branches that meet the criteria to become wards.
24 active, full tithe paying Melchizedek Priesthood holders in addition to those required for the wards
3000 members (in the US and Canada, 1900 members outside)
and should have at least 5 wards.
Note, the middle requirement is "members" and not "active members."
Wards are required to have 15 AFTPMPHs (should have at least 1 for very 300 members), and 300 members (US and Canada), 150 members (outside the US and Canada), 150 members (wards with languages that are not the primary in the area), 125 active members for singles wards.
my comment didn't go...
The comment that got lost was that the Church does not make public a lot of numbers for different reasons, some of them because of difficulty of assessing, like: "how active is that priesthood holder". Many work on Sundays, for example. Also, spending too much time counting and publishing is a drain of efforts that would otherwise be done visiting the widows and orphans. But it is interesting to see trends and make guesses as to new growth, like when the Fredericksburg Virginia Stake will split. Or where the newest temple will be in East Africa.
Open houses for the Cordova Argentina and Payson Utah temples have been announced for April to May 2015.
The Fredericksburg Virginia Stake (13 wards, 2 branches) is still a few hundred members away from 6000 and eligibility to split into two stakes (all other criteria are easily met). Now, it is possible that wards from the Centerville, Prince William, or Richmond stakes could be included in a split.
My guess is we will have a 14th ward in 2015.
My friend who lived in/near Fredicksburg this past year with his wife & kids moved to Ohio. I wonder how quickly members move in, or out. I wonder what the numbers are for Ashburn Stake.
We do have people moving in and out all the time in the Fredericksburg area, although in my ward this past summer it felt more like moving out than in. Yet, there is a core membership that has been here for many years. Overall, this area grows because of new move ins.
Interesting fact: Just days after this list was written, the Alicia Philippines District "delivered" and became a stake. That`s 64 for the year, or +62 net with little time left. Pretty good year.
What stake, besides the Ginowan Japan Stake, was discontinued in 2014?
None. I miscounted. +63. Thanks for catching that!
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