The Church reported that Apostle Elder D. Todd Christofferson dedicated the West African nation of The Gambia to missionary work on February 24th. Elder Christofferson also met with the Gambian president during his visit and attended the baptism of 11 new converts in Banjul - the Gambian capital. These converts had been taught by missionaries in the Cote d'Ivoire Abidjan West Mission - the mission that includes the country of Senegal. The Gambia remains officially unassigned to a full-time mission. Church membership as of year-end 2021 in The Gambia appeared to total 12, and with the addition of the new converts there are now 23 Latter-day Saints in the country. The Church reported 19 Latter-day Saints in The Gambia in 2013, although there was no organized Church presence or regular contact from area leadership until approximately 2018 when area leadership visited Banjul to meet with isolated members. The population of The Gambia is 2.3 million people. There is now one Latter-day Saint per 96,578 people in The Gambia - a ratio comparable for the Church in India. Leadership from the Africa West Area visited The Gambia in January 2022. The Church has held sacrament meeting services in the home of a member of the Church in Banjul. Also in January, Church leaders conducted the first two temple recommend interviews for members of the Church living in The Gambia who planned to attend the temple for the first time the following month to receive the ordinances of the endowment.
Like Senegal, the population of The Gambia is overwhelmingly Muslim (96.4%), albeit society is generally tolerant of religious freedom and religious minority groups. With the recent establishment of the Church in neighboring Senegal, Guinea, and Mali, prospects appear favorable for the creation of a mission headquartered in Dakar, Senegal within the near future to provide greater mission president oversight and larger amounts of resources allocated to this region of West Africa where there are no missions headquartered. Currently, countries in the area are assigned to several different missions such as the Cote d'Ivoire Yamoussoukro (Guinea and unofficially Burkina Faso) and Cote d'Ivoire Abidjan East (Mali). There are 90.8 million people who live in Burkina Faso, The Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, and Senegal.
This is great news! I hope the church creates a mission sooner than later. There is so much work to do in Africa.
ReplyDeletePresident Nelson just announced in a statewide California Devotional that "more temples are coming" to California (than already announced).
ReplyDeleteAlso he encouraged members to stay in California as each of us are specifically called and have special gifts to help build the Kingdom here in California.
Here is the link to the devotional for anyone who missed it: https://youtu.be/mVtye9eEETg
DeleteStay in California? I'm afraid that ship has sailed.
ReplyDelete@Matt ... that is awesome about California. There are many areas of California that are still good places to live. I hope the church can strengthen in California.
ReplyDeleteThere are lots of great members in California. I have a brother-in-law bishop in Oceanside, and many other siblings in-laws and nephews and nieces, plus parents in-laws and large amounts of friends, more uncles and aunts of my wife.
ReplyDeleteA good friend just got married in Oakland.
The future of Latinos alone is big in California in the Restored Church, not to mention Polynesians and Asians of all varieties. I personally know African-American sweet members of the Church of Jesus Christ, too, in California.
I have lived in four units in my eight years in California, four different stakes.
My point is that it is going to take a lot more than encouragement to convince members to remain in California for the rest of their lives and stop the bleeding of membership numbers, and I am a native Californian who still lives in California! There is a natural inclination to want to live among like minded people, whether it is political, economic, religious, etc. or a combination of all of thrse factors. The out-migration of members here started well before the pandemic, but the pandemic has only accelerated it even more. I suppose President Nelson could go even further and encourage members in Utah and Idaho to move to California to strengthen the Church here, which we all know is laughable and not going to happen.
ReplyDeleteRight, I understand your point, Mr. Dane. I am amazed as to how the temples keep coming, though. It seems counterintuitive, but California is expanding with temple building while losing overall units and membership.
ReplyDeleteI hope the above mentioned ethnic groups continue to grow in the faith, at least. And some long standing multi-generational church families will never leave.
Like the Boghs.
Because of that was said last night I think Chico or Redding may be ripe for a temple due to it being away from Sacramento and that it could service much of the remaining north area of the state that isn't close to that.
ReplyDeleteBakersfield should be on the table as well. Accidents happen regularly in the Grapevine, a truck rolled and I do not remember what is spilled but it was one of those odd spills. Never mind it is an eight-lane freeway up to the 99 split that downhill has its issues. Have a bad car accident anywhere between Santa Clarita and the grapefine and that can tie up traffic for hours either way depending on what side the wreck happened on.
Over 90 million people is a lot. I really hope 2023 sees a mission announced for Dakar.
ReplyDeleteI am also wondering if this growth might justify a split in the area in 2023. Nigeria would seem to have enough population and membership to join the Philippines, Mexico and Brazil in having its own area.
What about Stockton or Modesto. It's about halfway (Give or take) between Sacramento and Fresno and may take stakes from both temples as well as Oakland.
ReplyDeleteI think Modesto is certainly a possibility. The Sacramento Temple is way too small for its temple district size, even with the pending opening of the Feather River Temple.
ReplyDeleteI still think San Jose is a strong contender for a temple. Traveling to Oakland is very hard, and time consuming.
ReplyDeleteBakersfield and Chico/Redding do sou d likely.
I also thinking Ventura County is a big contender.
My three predictions for new temples in California:
ReplyDelete1. Modesto - 7 stakes
2. Bakersfield - 7 stakes
3. San Jose - 9 stakes
That would leave Oakland with 16-20 stakes depending whether Modesto and San Jose are built.
16 stakes is clearly enough to support the Oakland Temple.
DeleteI expect at least 2 temples will be announced for California in April.
The Church News just published the list of the 115 languages of the Book of Mormon. This includes Kinyarwanda and Sesotho, which are both in progress.
ReplyDeleteKinyarwanda is the official language of Rwanda. Sesotho is the official language of Lesptho, one of 11 official languages in South Africa and one of 16 official languages in Zimbabwe.
Thanks for letting us know about the Church News list. Did you see the video or was there an actual article?
DeleteVideo: https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/media/video/2020-02-0060-translations-of-the-book-of-mormon?lang=eng
Nevermind, I found it! Many thanks again! https://www.thechurchnews.com/global/2022-02-27/book-of-mormon-translations-maps-where-115-languages-spoken-244064
DeleteLooking at the map, There are no contries west of Ghana in Africa that have the Book of Mormon available in a native language
ReplyDeleteKilubu and Kikongo are two major languages lacking a Book of Mormon translation.
In Angola Ovundu is the most widely spoken language with over 9 million speakers. It would seem to be a top contender for translation.
Bakersfield and Redding are no brainers for distance. San Jose would alleviate Oakland a bit. I like the idea of Modesto as a reliever for Fresno and Sacramento over Stockton. Down the road, I could maybe also see temples in Victorville and the Palm Springs area, as well as another in the Inland Empire area should housing projects continue to spring up there.
ReplyDeleteOf that bunch, I would think Bakersfield will be announced sometime this year, with Redding the year to follow. Not sure where we go from there.
Among the other more exciting news from Elder Christofferson's 10 day Ministering tour of West Africa area, here is a little known fact that might interest some here for a future conference announcement (possible scouting sites).
ReplyDelete"28 February 2022 - Accra, Ghana News Release
Elder Christofferson Concludes Ministry in West Africa
Apostle reflects on meetings in four countries
Leadership Instruction Meetings
...Another leadership meeting was held in Port Harcourt, Nigeria, the following day."
https://news-africa.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/elder-christofferson-concludes-ministry-west-africa
The Yorba Linda temple will alleviate some of the Inland Empire travel to Redlands. When I lived in Highland (suburb of San Bernardino) it was only an hour fifteen to the LA Temple. With decreased units I see it hard to announce another temple between LA and Redlands. The High Desert, maybe. Palm Springs area does have a lot of people. If Idaho has so many temples, why not California? Growth trends.
ReplyDeleteThe North, like Redding, should have another. Bakersfield makes sense, too.
Any guesses for the Midwest and eastern states, Canada, Caribbean, other American countries, the Pacific islands, Australia, Europe, Africa, or Asia?
ReplyDeleteFor future California temples, I forsee
ReplyDeleteBakersfield
Modesto
Redding
Santa Maria or SLO
Ventura County
Temecula or Murrieta
San Jose
Coachella Valley (Palm Desert)
Victorville
The new Yorba Linda Temple will cover 10 to 12 Stakes from LA, Newport Beach, and Redlands Temple Districts.
For the midwest: South Dakota, Wisconsin. Possibly Cincinnati.
ReplyDeleteNortheast: Maine or New Hampshire. Maine makes more sense, farther away from Boston. Vermont?
East: West Virginia.
Africa and Asia should get more.
Coachella Valley makes sense, closer to Indio maybe, good freeway with light to moderate traffic, you are out of any areas that could have major issues getting to Redlands before you get to that, as Redlands is east of the 210 interchange.
ReplyDeleteVictorville and the rest of the Victor Valley likewise, will see one eventually, maybe not this go-round, good freeway but the truck traffic and occasional weather issues, and the occasional bad accident either side can be problematic, sooner than Coachella though.
Likewise seldom see issues on I-15 around Temecula or Murrieta. Because Temecula is very close to the 15/215 split on the south end that would be a prime placement given that. Less weather issues there, and big accidents are less likely,
Ventura County anywhere west of the Conejo Grade on 101. Everyone knows that to get to the LA temple you use either PCH or 101 to 405, 405 has constant traffic issues and PCH is usually around 35mph speed limit until the start of I-10 at the McClure Tunnel. Trucks do not use PCH as much except to deliver the occasional load to any coastal concern that needs a larger delivery.
When considering where a new temple is announced, I am sure the Church considers:
ReplyDelete1. The size of the current temple in the district where the proposed temple is announced?
2. The number of stakes that current temple is serving.
3. Whether the current temple is serving too many stakes (i.e. overcrowded).
4. The accessibility of stakes around the proposed temple to the current temple (i.e. traffic)
5. How many stakes the new temple would serve.
Given that the only other location in CA I can see getting a temple (besides Bakersfield, San Jose and Modesto) is Victorville. It's location is central to Lancaster /Palmdale /Ridgecrest/Yucca Valley and would serve 8 stakes. But if Victorville is announced then Bakersfield will not get a temple any time soon thereafter and vice versa.
Also, Redding will not get a temple until long after Feather River Temple opens and if temple attendance is high enough to demand it. Coachella Valley is also would not get a temple as it would serve only 2 stakes with Redlands not being too far away.
If Redding gets a temple, then Eureka Stake could be part of the temple district. Only 3 hour drive to Redding vs 4 hour drive to Medford.
DeleteIf a Coachella Valley Temple was placed in La Quinta, then El Centro Stake could be part of the temple district. Saves them 15-20 minutes going to La Quinta versus San Diego.
I have also heard that they take in to account how much the temple is going to be used. I heard this is tracked to the point when ever a member of a stake goes to the temple it adds a 'tally' or so to that stake.
ReplyDeleteHowever they also take into account isolation from current temples. Thus Okinawa.
DeleteI doubt there is much use from Nairobi to justify a temple.
I know number of full tithe payers is considered. I suspect they also look at Temple recommends independent of use.
However the final decisions are made by prayer after analyzing the data.
On the other hand President Hinkcley first tried finding a site for an Accra Temple 5 years before he announced it, and thus 2 years after the freeze ended. Paris is another place where it appears a temple site was sought for years. So at least under some conditions desired temples are not announced immediately.
The barcode system they started on the recommends a few years ago may help streamline the tracking the numbers of wards and stakes using the temples. This could help determine where to build a temple based on where the temple patrons are from.
ReplyDeleteOther places for new temples are probably determined by revelation alone.
ReplyDeleteHow often do we see surprise locations announced? It seems we see at least one almost each time. Even the prophet reported on the inspiration he got for the Bangalore India Temple the night before the announcement.
I believe that one day in the not too distant future, temples will be built in Harrison New York (plans were suspended in 2006) and Far West Missouri. The Kirtland Temple will one day be purchased by the Church and renovated to a functioning Temple. Joseph Smith and President Hinckley were inspired to announce those temples for a reason, but conflicts with enemies of the Church halted their construction.
ReplyDeleteThe Kirtland Temple is a different case, where its purpose has been fulfilled; however that was also said about the Nauvoo Temple, yet it was later rebuilt.
The Ephraim Utah temple was announced, it was specifically mentioned that a huge part of the benefit would be for students. How much then would be the chances for temples to be announced soon in Price Utah or Buena Vista Virginia? Are there other college towns with a significant number of latter-day Saint students near them that could benefit from a temple?
ReplyDeleteI say Tempe Arizona, but I am not sure it is actually far enough from Mesa to make this a high priority.
DeleteChampaign, Illinois and Madison, Wisconsin come to mind, although the numbers at either are not super big.
The strongest contenders in California, LA and Berekeley, have close temples. Stanford maybe but I am not sure how close a San Jose temple would be.
Moscow, Idaho/Pullman Washington is a darkhorse candidate. Lansing, Michigan a very dark horse candidate, but I expect Grand Rapids more.
Somewhere in the city of Chicago could be boosted in part by this process. It does not seem to have the student and young adult numbers of DC, NYC and greater Boston though, and those all have temples.
Baltimore Temple would bless students,but I am not sure I see it short term.
Could Texas A&M justify a temple in its vicity. Also Austin with UT Austin.
Corrado Springs and the Air Force Academy. Annapolis and Navy, but that seems very dark horse.
Here is a link to the moment where President Nelson says "and more [temples] will come [to California]: https://youtu.be/mVtye9eEETg?t=3785
ReplyDeleteI think Modesto and Bakersfield are the most likely next locations in California... then maybe 1-3 more on the edges of the LA metro area.
Modesto would have probably 7-9 stakes assigned to it, be heavily used during Oaklands 2 2-week maintenance closures per year and well used during Sacramento's and Fresno's 2 2-week maintenance closures per year.
As an aside, part of the genius of the Yorba Linda temple is that it's the next closest temple to all three of the surrounding temple districts, and close enough that those people will attend it when their temple is closed! Of the 48 weeks the Yorba Linda Temple will operate per year (assuming 2 2-week maintenance closures per year), 25% of that time a neighboring temple will be closed for maintenance! Similar idea in Utah or other places where lots of temples are in close proximity to each other.
Also, maintenance closers that exceed 2 weeks happen fairly regularly, so overflow use may be more than initial predictions suggest.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't too much stock on the idea of building a temple in an area just to benefit
ReplyDeletea large student population. While that may be one reason why the Church is building a temple in Ephraim, you must remember that Ephraim, like most of Utah is predomintly LDS and the temple would not only serve three stakes in Ephraim but also three stakes to the north of it. The Church also decided to build the Ephraim Temple as result of its decision not to undergo the renovations for the Manti Temple it originally planned. I don't expect the Church to build temples outside of Utah and Idaho solely to benefit students.
I do think that temples will be soon announced for Colorado Springs, Madison, Austin, Flagstaff and even possibly down the road, Tempe - but only for reason that the number of surrounding stakes, size of the nearest temple and geographic considerations would justify the building of a new temple. The student population would have very little or nothing to do with it.
Frederick, you have that backwards. The idea of a temple for Ephraim came first, then the idea to not move the murals, not vice versa. President Nelson received a late-night impression for a temple in Ephraim, and once the wheels had been set in motion for Ephraim, then the revelation about changing the plans for Manti's renovation was received. LDS Living covered that fact last year:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.ldsliving.com/ephraim-first-manti-second-a-lesson-in-continuing-revelation-from-the-recent-temple-announcement/s/94271
Based on that fact, the reasoning you presented in your comment may be flawed. And since the Lord guides the announcement of new temples, I don't think we can safely rule out anything, including the prospect that, in due course, the Church may bring temples closer to major universities where they are likely to be highly-utilized.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAs often in the scriptures, revelation comes first. But often, not how to make it happen. For example the Lord instructed the Brother of Jared to build barges. But he had questions and then further prayer brought forth how to light it. Nephi questioned about how to get tools to build a ship and with prayer he was then given more insight on how to find and get ore. We are taught to pray, ponder and pray about our decisions some more to further clarify our personal revelation.
DeleteThey also consider sacrament meeting attendance in a certain area.
ReplyDeleteAround or just before 2008, leaders in Tucson were told that. They were also told of some of the other factors discussed here earlier that went into deciding when and where, and obviously they were not told all but they were told essentially what was needed for one to be announced then built.
In more distant areas, the number of seasoned, mature leaders and other men in the Church in a given area is considered, as that is how they ensure enough sealers in a projected temple district. That from someone I know who is a sealer.
Well James, get back to me when a temple is announced in Berkeley, California.
ReplyDeleteBerkley would be a case of 2 temples within 1 stake. I do not expect to see it anytime soon. San Francisco is a more likely candidate for a temple than Berkeley, and it is not high on many lists.
ReplyDeleteAnd James, that is why your theory that the Church would build a temple for the sole purpose of serving a large student population is inherently flawed. Just because the Church would build a temple in the heavily LDS cultured and populated and largely isolated college town of Ephraim, that will serve at least six stakes (11 if you count the 5 stakes around Price), doesn't mean they would do the same in sparsely LDS populated, much larger college towns/cities like Stanford, Baltimore, College Station, TX (1 stake?) or Champaign, IL for that sole purpose. Makes absolutely no sense that they would.
ReplyDeleteYes, the Lord does guide where temples are built, but outside of Utah and (southern) Idaho there is not a single time I can recall that the Church has built a temple for that sole purpose. Any temples annouced for college towns such as Eugene, OR was not because of the large student population because the number of stakes and membership activity in that area warranted one. As I mentioned before, I expect to see temples announced in Madison, Austin, Flagstaff, and Colorado Springs - but a large student population has nothing to do with it and would be only incidental to the announcement.
If your theory is correct, we can also look forward to temple announcements in Gainsville, FL; Athens, GA; Laramie, WY, Boulder, CO; and Columbia, MO among many other large college towns with one or two stakes. Not going to happen any time soon.
But there is one place where a temple could be announced outside of UT/ID that would largely serve an LDS student population and that is Buena Vista, VA. The reasons would be (1) large, isolated, LDS student population in a small town (like Ephraim), (2) would serve at least 5 nearby stakes, possibly two more in WV, and (3) would still leave the Richmond Temple with 8 stakes. In other words, there's a lot more factors in play.
Perhaps when we are on the very brink of the Second Coming will we see your university theory play out.
I can see Champaign, but more based on isolation than anything else.
DeleteBaltimore would be more inner-city than student outreach.
Austin UT Austin might be a factor but small.
I could see a temple in Stanford, but that would be a case of student population driving the precise location.
I think there is a possibility for Tempe.
UNLV area for the 2nd Las Vegas temple would be a clear placing temples for students case, but I think it is very unlikely.
I could be wrong but I will not see a general trend until we have another clear case like Ephraim. Ephraim may be tipped by the student population but Manti's inaccessibility is also a huge factor.
There is, quite literally, a temple close to every major school in Utah but one.
ReplyDeleteLogan - USU. Not all that far east of i.
Ogden - WSU, Ogden west of that and the BRT line will go right by it on the way to Frontrunner
Salt Lake - U of U and Ensign College, the larger one to the east and the smaller a couple blocks over
Taylorsville - SLCC, Temple to the SE, this school is large but does not have housing eith it. Quick drive over as it is around two miles or so from the school.
Orem - UVU, and during the rebuild of Provo, BYU.
Provo - BYU, it was built on some land BU had already before it was announced.
Ephraim - Snow College, will be within a block of that
St, George, Dixie State University, two temples but the older one is closer, the university is becoming Utah Technical University this year.
Cedar City - SUU, across the freeway and I do not know what direction from that though.
Actually while Provo is being rebuilt Provo City Center will be the closest temple to BYU.
Delete"More Church meetinghouses getting solar panels in Australia, South Pacific"
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thechurchnews.com/global/2022-03-02/church-meetinghouses-getting-solar-panels-south-pacific-244726
@Jim Anderson
ReplyDeleteI personally think that has more to do with the fact that Utah has a member population that will use the temples to their capacity, more so than the presence of an institution of higher learning
I will say that one of the biggest lessons I learned from a priesthood leader was that "information invites inspiration". I ultimately think the vast, vast majority of temples will be announced here on out with the probe of some form of observable information to the prophet, which will then invite the revelation that this is the course to take (or maybe in some cases not the course to take). The challenge we are faced with when we make our predictions is ultimately how much and what kind of information can we gather, as well as which of the factors we observed would necessitate the addition of a temple in a particular area in the eyes of the Lord.
ReplyDeleteJohn, I'm glad to hear you're joining the hopeful for a temple in Champaign! If one is built there - and there is a possibility - it would not be because of UofI. The Urbana YSA Branch averages only about 15 in attendance during the school year, and it's practically not operative during the summer. But the wards around it are quite sizable and Champaign-Urbana is actually growing in population. There is another wildcard, namely that one of Elder Bednar's sons (who teaches at UofI) is our stake president here in Champaign. It might give us perhaps just a tiny bit of an advantage over other similar places in the Midwest, simply because we're on at least one Apostle's radar. There are some construction developments especially on the south side of the metro (Savoy, near the airport, perhaps even out towards Pesotum) that would fit the scheme of neighborhoods the Church has built its more recent Midwestern temples in. The area I'm thinking of is conveniently accessible from both US 45 and I 57.
ReplyDeleteA temple in Champaign would likely serve all three stakes in central Illinois (Champaign, Springfield, Peoria). There is a lot of cooperation between these stakes for trainings, youth activities, and the like. None of them are massive but they are also not in immediate risk of discontinuation, despite population losses for the area at large. Really, we had the discussion about California losing people, but if you compare that to, say, Decatur, you'll see California really doesn't have it that bad.
I think Champaign-Urbana will get a temple someday. I can probably think of 100 temples in the world (not the US) that are as or more likely. But not many more than that. Really, three stakes located relatively closely together with travel distances to a temple that are constantly 2-3 hours are becoming more rare in the US. I wouldn't be surprised if that gap would someday get closed.
Frederick, please note I didn't offer a timeframe with my theories on that. It's not going to be instantaneous, and if anything I said indicated otherwise, please enlighten me.
ReplyDeleteAdditionally, my track record predicting temples speaks for itself. Every conference, I assign each temple announced a total of 3 points: 3 points earned if the exact location was predicted; 2 if the general location is right but the specific location is wrong; 1 point if any temples were on my list for any time, but announced sooner than projected, and 0 for a total off-my-radar announcements.
Based on that, I got 30/39 for the temples announced in October, 50/60 for April 2021, 14/18 for October 2020, and 18/24 for April 2020. My record speaks for itself, and I stand by it. We can agree to disagree here. No problem
Says the guy who said Maputo would get a temple before Beira.
DeleteFair point. But no one's right all the time.
DeleteFair point. But no one's right all the time, unless you know something I don't.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteCurrent countries/territories with at least 2,000 members and 0 temples:
ReplyDelete1. Uganda: 17,887
2. Mongolia: 12,261
3. Malaysia: 10,845
4. Republic of the Congo: 8,542
5. Indonesia: 7,561
6. Marshall Islands: 6,976
7. Jamaica: 6,668
8. Federated States of Micronesia: 6,307
9. Guyana: 6,264
10. Belize: 5,485
11. Togo: 5,320
12. Zambia: 4,564
13. Benin: 4,018
14. Pakistan: 4,000
15. Ireland: 3,985
16. Botswana: 3,653
17. Armenia: 3,579
18. Trinidad and Tobago: 3,524
19. Angola: 3,490
20. Albania: 3,216
21. Malawi: 3,143
22. Romania: 3,064
23. Czechia: 2,636
24. New Caledonia: 2,500
25. Vietnam: 2,466
26. Bulgaria: 2,440
27. Cameroon: 2,245
28. Eswatini: 2,091
29. Poland: 2,058
Note: The United Arab Emirates have 1,699 members, and a temple will soon be constructed in Dubai.
The list does not include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland as countries/territories.
I believe Republic of Congo has the most stakes of any of these. I can see it getting a temple very soon. However most stakes are fairly close to Kinshasa, so the case for a temple is less strong. Another issue I cannot answer is how hard it is to move between the two Congos.
DeleteA temple there is possible, but unlikely for the time being. It probably would require 1 or 2 more stakes in the country outside of Brazzaville to justify a temple.
DeleteOn the other hand, I've not seen anyone have this on their radar, but a temple in Northern Borneo for the Malaysian saints there might be a candidate that is overlooked. There are currently 4 districts there, but 1 or 2 might be elevated to stakes by the time a temple is dedicated.
I can see an argument for a North Borneo Temple. I would be very surprised to see it announced before they get a stake.
Delete@James, I applaud anyone attempting to gauge or improve predictive accuracy, whether on this topic or any others they make predictions about. Might I suggest that to gauge one's predictive accuracy it is not enough to assign points for correct predictions -- it is also necessary to penalize for incorrect predictions? To illustrate why this is needed, suppose I decided to predict which days it will snow in Boston between 1 Dec 2022 and 1 February 2023. If I listed Dec 1, Dec 2, Dec 3, and so on, and included every day in my prediction, then if when I scored my predictions I only looked at correctly guessing days it snowed without penalizing for incorrectly guessing days it did not, I would be 100% correct in my "prediction", but obviously there would be nothing impressive about that. However, if I penalized myself for predicting snow on days where it did not end up snowing, I would probably turn out looking pretty bad at predicting snow in Boston (unless next winter is truly crazy!) In order to make sure predictions really are based on a reasonably good theory of how the thing being predicted works and that we are not just getting points by luck, it is necessary to penalize for predicting things that don't end up happening. (There of course is also the set of things we don't predict that do happen, but I'm not entirely sure of how that should be incorporated -- there is another blog I read full of commenters who know much more about that than I do, so if I remember to maybe the next time it has an open thread post I will ask about that and report back).
ReplyDeleteFor those that are interested, I prepared my Semi-Annual Temple bracket for this go around: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lRxugz1lHEbYmfY3duL0xBxHSVST-bqc/view?usp=sharing
ReplyDeleteA year ago, I also created some 2 hour travel radii maps for the US. Some temples have been announced in these locations since then:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1kABoUg7-x3FeHz_JZNJrIqhFNKKmwpiC?usp=sharing
I also did an analysis of temple capacities based on endowment room sizes:
http://www.thisweekinmormons.com/2021/09/a-data-driven-approach-to-temple-predictions/
@Cory
DeleteThanks for making the Temple Bracket again! I just downloaded it and printed it off for our family (it's been a big hit with the kids and their cousins).
I plan to take a look at your Temple Radius link, too.
True about Utah and demand that puts temples at capacity, but many of those temples named are not that far from the schools that I mentioned they are near. Likely in most cases things just worked out that way, but a couple may have had this consideration but we will never really know for sure.
ReplyDeleteI think locating a temple close to a school if an area needs a temple is easy to do.
Deletehttps://www.thechurchnews.com/temples/2022-03-03/praia-cape-verde-temple-dedication-open-house-dates-announced-first-presidency-244703
ReplyDeleteI am very excited that Praia Cape Verde had a dedication announced. Hopefully Quito and San Juan will have dedication dates annoced soon.
ReplyDeleteThe Hamilton NZ temple was announced to be built next to the under construction CCNZ. From that grew the small church community of Temple View with a current population of around 1,300-1,400. Drawing from surrounding suburbs it has a smallish stake with 8 wards.
ReplyDeleteThe idea of having to a temple in central Illinois to serve the three stakes in Peoria, Springfield and Champaign at first would appear like a possibility, but when you look further into the details, it is really impractical. Each of those stakes is served by a different temple (Nauvoo, St. Louis, and Indianapolis). The distance to those temples is 2 hours or less (less for Springfield). The distance between each city is around 1 hour, 20 min. If the Church builds a temple in one of those cities to serve all three stakes, they would save members into two of those stakes around 30-40 minutes of driving one way, which is why I think a Central Illinois Temple is very unlikely at this point.
ReplyDeleteAustin is on my short list mainly because the size of San Antonio's temple and the fact that Austin would serve 8-9 stakes depending on its location, leaving San Antonio with 8-9 stakes. Knowing the Church, they would likely build the temple in a suburb like Round Rock rather than in Downtown Austin near UT. I think El Paso is just as likely to be announced as Austin but for completely different reasons.
I also think the Church could announce a temple for San Jose. The temple would likely be built in the south part of San Jose where there is still lots of undeveloped land. This leaves out Stanford. Stanford is packed to the gils with real estate development and would be far more expensive built there than in south SJ.
A temple in Tempe is certainly a possibility as it would serve about 11 stakes but it largely would depend on how busy the Mesa Temple (and to a less extent Gilbert) is. Similar to Stanford, Tempe appears to be very well developed, except some areas near the Salt River, and the question is where could they build the temple. Perhaps the Phoencian suburb of Ahwatukee, right next to Tempe? I expect, however, a temple to be announced for Queen Creek before Tempe simply based on availablilty of land to build on, the large number of the stakes there, and its continual population growth. A Tempe Temple is a real possibility but not because of ASU.
Las Vegas #2 - no chance will be built near UNLV. The location is too urban, too noisy and too close to airport and the Strip, and considering it appears the Church specifically built the Las Vegas Temple at its location as far from the Strip (the world) as possible. LV2 temple will either be built on the west (Summerlin) or northwest side of the Valley. Somewhere in Henderson (to serve the LV Valley's south stakes) is also a possibility and far more likely than around UNLV. The real difficulty about announcing LV2 will be the effect a new temple will have on the current Las Vegas Temple which is located in a really inconvenient location and I believe still struggles with attendance.
As I mentioned yesterday, the only city/town outside of UT/ID with a large LDS student population that could receive a temple is Buena Vista, VA - which has its own YSA Stake and is central to four other nearby stakes, closer for two stakes in WV to their currently assigned temples and far enough from Richmond and DC to justify an additional temple in the area. The Church will probably wait until after Richmond opens before announcing Buena Vista.
Having lived in central Illinois for many years, I don't think a temple there is likely. When there is already one within 2-2.5 hours for people it's not a huge deal. Especially when you consider that people in those areas often travel an hour each way just to go to a stake meeting or interview.
DeleteI see the Queen Creek area as much more likely than Tempe. Both due to space and member density. Wards and stakes in Phoenix and the closer suburbs (Scottsdale and Tempe) are getting slowly decimated by members moving to the Queen Creek area. There are charter schools in that area that are overwhelmingly Mormon student bodies, which attracts people away from Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tempe and even Chandler and Gilbert. There isn't true growth in the area, it's all driven by shifting locations of members, and for the past 9-10 years the land of milk and honey to head to has been Queen Creek (Provo South). This leaves some older buildings for sale or used by a single ward in older parts of the metro area.
I think there is a possibility that the institute building in Tempe could have a temple built on top of it. I also hope at some point the Hyde Park Chapel in London will be in part renovated into a temple. That second will probably not be less than the 5th temple in the British Isles and might not happen for some time.
DeleteFWIW, Puebla is known as the Boston of Mexico for the high concentration of universities that are based there. However, the temple is being built in the north side of the city whereas the big universities are on the south and west sides of town. It is also because the number of stakes that would be served by the Puebla temple is quite immense: 9 in the metro area, plus 2 in Tlaxcala, 2 in Nealtican, one in Atlixco, one in Tehuacan, one in Teziutlan would also be served.
ReplyDeleteI would not be surprised to see Pachuca and Cuautla get incorporated into the Puebla temple district because Cuautla is actually closer to Puebla and it is more easily accessible than Mexico City (because the roads to Mexico City are quite dangerous) and even though Pachuca is closer to Mexico City than Puebla, to access the temple would require going through the dangerous community of Ecatepec to get there.
So low end we are looking at 14 stakes and two districts. High end, 21 stakes.
The next Mexican temple that will be announced will more than likely be Cancún due to distance parameters from the existing Mérida temple. Potential darkhorses in La Paz BCS (due to distance) and Chihuahua City.
What is the chance that Pachuca will get a temple?
DeleteSpeaking of temples in Mexico, I've wondered about a second one in Mexico City. The Mexico City temple is quite large, and while it serves many stakes the number (likely in the mid-60s once Puebla and Santiago de Queretaro are completed) is similar to what was common for a temple of that size up until a few years ago, though unusually large these days. On the other hand, I suspect if a second one was built there, it would be on the campus of the Mexico City MTC -- both because that is space the church already owns, and especially because it would be beneficial to have a temple within walking distance for missionaries at the MTC. Of course, that wouldn't necessarily be the most beneficial location for stakes in Mexico City, as it would be fairly close to the extant Mexico City temple.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thechurchnews.com/global/2022-03-03/how-the-church-is-helping-with-humanitarian-aid-in-eastern-europe-244951
ReplyDeleteThere's a recent pic on Instagram of the past day or two, showing the Kyiv Urkaine Temple still intact and unharmed.
ReplyDeleteThat's great news!
Deletehttps://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/temple-groundbreaking-dates-set-for-three-western-us-states
ReplyDeleteJune groundbreaking set for temples in Burley Idaho, Smithfield Utah, Yorba Linda California.
Desert News also included the rendering for the Ephraim Utah temple in the same announcement. It looks similar to the Smithfield temple but smaller. I think two floors instead of two. https://www.deseret.com/faith/2022/3/4/22960476/smithfield-utah-burley-idaho-yorba-linda-california-temple-ephraim-rendering-groundbreaking-lds
DeleteSmithfield is 3 stories with 2 baptistries. Ephraim is a similar floorplan to Richmond and Auckland, being 2 stories and having a single baptistry.
DeleteSo how many temples are we do with multiple baptistries announced now?
DeleteSo far, Salt Lake, Syracuse, Lindon, and Smithfield are confirmed. I've also heard reports that Provo will gain a second baptistry as part of its reconstruction, likely from the current cafeteria.
DeleteTemple Presidents were recently called for Feather River and Hong Kong to begin serving in September. That leads me to assume those temples will be dedicated/rededicated by then.
ReplyDeleteNot necessarily quite that soon. The president of the Rio Temple had his announcement published with the 2019 batch, and that temple was originally going to be dedicated in the Spring of 2020. So I would say temple presidents for new temples called now they may plan on them having an operating time by spring of 2023, but maybe sooner.
DeleteI think temple presidents may begin assembling those who will work in the temple and related items before the building is dedicated.
All of the temples announced in April 2021 for the US will then be under construction, except Willamette Valley Oregon.
ReplyDeleteNine starts and 3 dedications, and add to that 4-5 starts from last fall and one other dedication (not counting the rededications) means 12-13 will be started by the end of June, and we may not be done with the announcements either.
ReplyDeleteThat means we may see over 10 announced and likely more in April.
I’m in Yuba City and locals say the temple is ahead of schedule and expected to be done this fall.
ReplyDeleteFeather River
Delete@Unknown...
ReplyDeleteThat's a pretty good measurement there. I think the two things that impede a second temple for Mexico City are:
1. Not enough local usage. This has been a frequent problem as the vast majority of the people that were using the temple were those from outside, especially Puebla and Queretaro, places that had temples just announced recently.
2. The existing temple is HUGE; the biggest outside of the US and Canada and comparable in size to the temples in Jordan and Provo.
The obvious location to put the temple would be on the grounds of the Missionary Training Center, that would be true. But the location, as you mentioned, places it already fairly close to the existing temple in Aragon.
Coming back to the theme of universities, if you were to put the temple there at the CCM, you would be practically next door to the National Polytechnic University, the first in class university of that type in the country. Though I would definitely think that a more suitable location would be in the south of Mexico City in the Tlalpan or Coyoacan area as that is fairly remote from Aragon and would cause those coming up from Acapulco, Chilpancingo, or Cuernavaca to not have to go through too much of the city to get there. That area, ironically, is in the area of the National University.
I do hope for more temples there. But the members do have to use the existing temple there, especially now that PBC and QRO will have their own temples.
With the way President Nelson moves boldly and challenges people to grow I would not be surprised if he announced 2 new temples for Mexico City and then traveled to Mexico City and gave a talk in Spanish calling on the members to rise up to be ready to fully staff and operate all 3 temples.
DeleteEphraim and Burley look to have essentially the same floor plan, though curiously, Ephraim is listed as a three story temple at only 400 square feet bigger. I'm wondering if there's something like a celestial room balcony or third floor sealing room to make it unique.
ReplyDelete@EP, I just noticed the 3-story description for the Ephraim Utah Temple. It appears to have the exact same floorplan as Richmond Virginia, but I am not seeing 3-stories in the rendering. It looks like 2-stories to me.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's a typo.
DeleteIs the Winnipeg Manitoba Temple 1, or 2 stories?
ReplyDeleteJust one, but it is tall enough to look like two, and other temples ith more stories often look one more story taller than what they actually are as that top level typically has higher ceilings inside.
ReplyDeleteYes, a new temple presidency has a lot to do before a temple opens. Depending on the size of the temple, a small army has to be called and organized. I was called and set apart as an ordinance worker in the Philadelphia temple's president's home about a month before the temple opened.
ReplyDeleteGetting back to California, it's true stakes are still being shut down (President Hinckley told members to stay put back in the 1990s) but there are still plenty of members there. More temples there could be announced in a few weeks, but I'm not holding my breath.
These temple predictions are out of control at this point. Seriously, 3 - THREE - temples in Mexico City? A temple in Champaign, IL?
ReplyDeleteAs someone who lives in Champaign, I would bet my home that the Church won't build a temple here in the next 10 years. Champaign essentially has one ward building (plus a YSA branch that meets in the Institute) of 2 1/2 wards (I say 2 1/2 because one ward struggles to maintain activity levels). The stake has a large geographic footprint and doesn't look to be even close to creating a new unit (much less another stake) anytime within the next 10 years.
There would barely be enough people to provide service as temple workers and staff the temple once a week, let alone patronage the temple to do ordinances. And yes, that is after considering Peoria, Bloomington-Normal, and Springfield members that would have to travel an hour to get here.
This eagerness to build temples everywhere there are a few stakes would quite simply not work. If someone needs a Midwest temple announcement to satiate an itch, Milwaukee/Madison, Cleveland, Grand Rapids, Des Moines, or South Dakota make much more sense.
Not that temple building has made much sense, recently, but you can chalk that off to revelation. A temple in Ephraim makes almost zero logical sense, but here we are. As lay members, though, are you trying to predict future revelations of temples that make no sense, or temple locations that WOULD make sense based on actual data?
I think we have to bid farewell to the old paradigms of where the Church is building temples. There are temple districts that function with fewer active members than a temple in central Illinois would (and I've lived in one of these districts before and let me tell you, if you want to run a small temple with four workers [arguably the absolute minimum I have ever seen], you can). It's not an obstacle in Okinawa or Guam or Winnipeg, and their districts are much smaller. Does a temple need to run sessions every half hour? No, not really. I think one session a few evenings a week and then perhaps two sessions back to back on Saturday would fill up. Personally I would gladly drive the hour to Champaign every week; it's much less intimidating and much less of a commitment than driving 2 1/2 hours to Indy (with a time zone change) or St Louis. And even if you look at members in Bloomington or Peoria or Springfield, having travel times cut down to an hour or so makes attending the temple much more feasible after working a 9-5 job on a weekday. So that change could be rather substantial in improving access and attendance rates.
ReplyDeleteBeyond that specific example though -- the main constraints in temple construction (finances, time it takes to plan and build a temple, massive numbers of members to staff it, etc.) are gradually disappearing. Annoucements of temples are far outpacing active membership growth and the gap is growing. It really means just one thing: temples will be smaller, closer to members, and more lean operationally in the future, and that opens up locations we probably don't have on our radars yet. If we announce only a modest 30 temples a year, have you done the math how quickly we'll run through the list of potential locations? We'll double up on what we have built or in the pipeline today nine years from now.
By the way, I think all your Midwest options are ahead of Champaign on the list. Wichita is too, and so is Cincinnati. After that, things start getting thin, I believe.
Brazil still needs ten temples for the entire country to be completely reached
ReplyDeleteJames - completely agree about how the whole temple prediction discussions gone out of control. Some of these discussions are without rhyme or reason. Just pick a city and be done with it.
ReplyDeleteWhile the Church is announcing more temples than ever before and in unexpected places, those announced temples actually make do sense. Ephraim is not really a big a head scratcher when you think about it. The Church did explain that announcing Ephraim had something to do with accessibility to Manti's Temple. The Church seems to build temples a lot bigger in Utah, even for the same number of stakes in other places. Likely because temple attendance is higher in Utah.
No, we will not be hearing a temple announcement for Champaign, IL anytime soon. Neither will we hear announcements for temples strictly for the purpose of serving an LDS student population where there's a sparse membership presence. No, there will be no temples announced for Berkeley, CA, Boulder, CO, Baltimore, MD, College Station, TX or across the street from UNLV.
"How the Church, its leaders and members in Europe are providing aid and relief in the humanitarian crisis caused by armed conflict"
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thechurchnews.com/global/2022-03-06/how-the-church-its-leaders-members-in-europe-are-providing-aid-and-relief-245265
The only schools where temples would be announced for the sity or close region would be larger schools with a firly high percentage of students, as well as the members in and around it, would be Utah and Idaho. A few other places it is coincidental. About all the major ones are covered in Utah with everything built or being built, so that is as good as finished.
ReplyDeleteChampaign/Urbana, not yet, near enough to major routes to Chicago, St. Louis, Nauvoo, or Indianapolis.
Cincinnati is halfway between Louisville and Columbus with a good freeway to both cities.
Of those places I have seen put forwarde the following seem to be the most plausible given how other things have happened in the past.
Mongolia - distance from others and small but growing member base although that is not a lot.
Bakersfield CA - Not as close to either Fresno or LA, but major traffic issues that I have mentioned may result in a need to mitigate those for members
Herriman - Explosive growth in SW Salt Lake County, new development proposed will only bring more along with what is already being built.
Lehi - Builder let something slip in a city planning commission meeting, and although it was not said what the 'centerpiece project' in the development would be, the acreage involved is large enough. The growth in Lehi is also considered explosive too, they expect another 25k to add to the 2020 Census number of 75k by 2030.
Elder Craig C. Christensen of the Seventy while he was area president, this was stated maybe off-camera at the Taylorsville groundbreaking, that 'This (Taylorsville) is only the beginning of the building of temples in Utah'
President Nelson said there were 'more to come' in California last week, given the makeup and placement of cities and member populations there that is a hard nut to crack, the Bakersfield one is likely the best I can think of right now though.
An area seventy apparently said that Spokane was packed to the gills when it was open, apparently before the pandemic as well and he suggested the possibility of another one in the Spokane region.
Not sure about many others yet.
The Hamilton NZ temple could get a second baptistry when they eventually close the cafeteria.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDo we have a list of which temples have/had cafeterias?
ReplyDeleteBoulder does have a stake, but a temple built there would mostly siphon off stakes from the Fort Collins temple, which probably does not need to be split yet. Perhaps the church will want another temple in the Denver metro area someday, but I would think not until after one is built in Colorado Springs or Pueblo. And even then Boulder does not seem to me like a top candidate location unless there is considerable growth.
ReplyDeleteLouisville and Columbus are both small temples. Cincinnati/Dayton area is growing, both in population and Church members. Heck, Dayton has three stakes now. When my wife's family lived there not that long ago, their designated temple was in DC and they were in an Indianapolis stake.
ReplyDeleteThere are 6 stakes between Cincinnati and Dayton. That is enough for a temple. Columbus Temple will have I think 11 when Pittsburgh Temple is done.
DeleteThe question is Cincinatti or Clebeland first. The other issue is how much Louiville can loose.
I would love to see Cincinatti and Cleveland both get temples. I think it might require 1-2 more stakes in Ohio, and maybe 1 more in either Kentuvky or southern Indiana.
This is my top 10 list. I expect to see more temples than this.
ReplyDeleteKampala, Uganda
Abuja, Nigeria
Joao Passoa, Brazil
Glasgow, Scotland
Busan, South Korea
Naga, Philippines
Buena Vista or Lexington, Brazil
Kirtland, Ohio
Spanish Fork, Utah
Cover D'Alaine, Idaho
https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10158115819360443&id=579515442
ReplyDeleteI wonder with the ever-increasing fuel prices, the new temples being built are not so much about increasing capacity, but actually making temples more accessible.
ReplyDeleteAs gas prices goes to historic levels, that will deter some members to travel to the temple. Having closer temples keeps temple work at least current levels in the near term, with greater capacity in the long term.
@noah
ReplyDeleteAfter careful consideration, and to simplify temple operations, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints will permanently close the cafeterias inside its temples in early 2022. The Guayaquil Ecuador and Hamilton New Zealand Temples will require a longer transition period. Cafeterias that are currently closed due to the pandemic will not reopen.
“We are grateful for the dedication of Church members and employees who have assisted in the operation of temple cafeterias for many years,” says an email sent on Friday to Latter-day Saints who serve in the 24 temples with cafeterias.
Noah, for additional context, the text of the announcement quoted by Brett above was released on the Church's Newsroom on November 5 of last year. Based on that, it seems likely that most of the temple cafeterias noted have already closed:
ReplyDeletehttps://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/temple-cafeterias-closing
Hope this additional information is helpful.
I am aware that the cafeterias are closing; I'm just not sure which temples were built with cafeterias.
Delete@Noah
DeleteI have no idea where you could find a full list, but Ogden and Idaho Falls are two that I know have cafeterias.
Though I will miss having dinner at the temple, one good outcome will be a slight stimulation of local economies because patrons will now have to choose nearby restaurants and stores for meals during temple trips.
In Ogden, the tradition was to go across the street to Farr's ice cream anyway (instead of the cafeteria), so not a big change there.
I think a temple in Cincinnati is real possibility - btw that city and Dayton, it would serve six stakes. Columbus has 4 stakes and I think a new stake in Mansfield, OH could be created any time. Louisville would serve at least 7 stakes without Cincinnati and it serves only one stake from Cincinnati. I think any small Hinckley-era temple that serves over 8 stakes could have its temple district split.
ReplyDeleteCleveland probably won't happen until the Church acquires the Kirtland Temple and renovates it, or maybe the Church will just build a new temple near Kirtland. I don't expect to see an annoucement until after Pittsburgh opens.
If Cincinatti gets built that will leave Columbus with between 8 and 9 stakes, although hopefully Mansfield will get a stake. I think Toledo splits between Columbus and Detroit Temples.
DeleteCleveland if Mansfield gets a stake would leave Columbus at least 5 stakes.
I am not sure what I expect anymore.
Most of the older temples all had cafeterias. LA, Oakland, etc.
ReplyDeleteHola!
ReplyDeletePese a que en el templo de Santiago de Chile, por lo pequeño del mismo no había cafetería, hubiera sido genial tener una. Cuando se requería comer había que ir al casino que usaban los misioneros y pagar allí.
Ir a trabajar al templo y contar una cafetería allí mismo, simplificaba no tener que salir, en fin, la iglesia hace cambios que no comparto, da lo mismo lo que uno piense porque la Iglesia ya lo decidió y no va a cambiar de idea.
For those of us not fluent in Spanish, here is a rough English translation of the comment above:
ReplyDelete"Hello!
"Despite the fact that in the temple of Santiago de Chile, due to its small size, there was no cafeteria, it would have been great to have one. When you needed to eat, you had to go to the casino used by the missionaries and pay there.
Going to work at the temple and having a cafeteria right there made it easier not to have to go out, in short, the church makes changes that I do not share, it does not matter what one thinks because the Church has already decided and is not going to change its mind."
@noah the article was more the figure of 24 temples having cafeterias. Perhaps between people here we can guess a bulk of them.
ReplyDeleteFor me there is:
- Sydney Australia
- Hamilton New Zealand
Ahmad Corbett, the 1st counselor in the young men general presidency, is the only general leader of the Church who met his wife on a temple trip. Well, at least it was on a temple trip on a bus from their ward in the New Jersey suburbs of Philadelphia to the Washington DC temple that they interacted for the first time in a significant way. They were in the same ward so might have at least seen each other earlier.
ReplyDeleteBrother Corbett is African-American. He lived in West Philadelphia until he was about 18 in about 1979 when he and his family moved to Cherry Hill, New Jersey. They then joined The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saunts. Shortly after that Brother Corbett went to Ricks College and then served a mission in Puerto Rico. His wife like the vast majority of the ward was white. Brother Corbett eventually got a law degree and was head of the government and public affairs office of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Manhattan. He was president of the Cherry Hill New Jersey Stake where his counselor and successor was Vai Sikehema, who is now a general authority seventy. Brother Corbett was then a mission president in the Dominican Republic. He now works for the missionary department.
One of the sets of materials linked to from the race and the priesthood essay is a set of reflective essays by Borther Corbett.
The Corbett's first date may have been to the DC Temple cafeteria. Thinking about it I am not even sure I could explain the nature and scope of the temple trip.
Bishop Causse has told stories about camping on temple grounds in Switzerland. No one had better stories of going to the temple than Elder Fallabella and his stories of going to the temple in Mesa.