Eight New Temples Announced - Analysis

*First off, as a blogger and researcher who has tracked Church growth for 17 years, President Russell M. Nelson's unpredictability with making announcements definitely keeps me on my toes... We will see if there are more Church-growth related announcements tomorrow. I will do my best to be available to post if additional announcements are made.*

This evening, President Russell M. Nelson announced plans to construct eight new temples. This is the first time that the Church has ever announced plans to construct new temples in the women's session of General Conference. With today's announcement, there will be 217 temples worldwide (166 dedicated, 51 announced or under construction). Of the eight new temples announced today, two were in countries where no temples operate or have been announced (Papua New Guinea and Sierra Leone) and one was in a state in the United States that has never had a temple announced (Arkansas). See below for analysis regarding each of these temple announcements:

Freetown Sierra Leone Temple
Freetown is the capital and most populous city in Sierra Leone. The Church organized its first branch in Sierra Leone in 1988, and organized the first mission in 2007 from a division of the Ghana Accra Mission. The Church in Sierra Leone has experienced moderate to rapid growth since its establishment approximately three decades ago. The first stake in Sierra Leone was organized in 2012 in Freetown. Today, there are six stakes and three districts in the country. Sierra Leone is also the country on mainland Sub-Saharan Africa with the highest percentage of Latter-day Saints in the population (approximately 0.34%). Sierra Leone is also the country in Sub-Saharan Africa with the lowest percentage of Christians (21%) with a mission headquartered in the country, and has the city with the highest percentage of Latter-day Saints in the general population among cities on the Afro-Eurasian landmass with 100,000 or more people (Bo is estimated at 3.5% Latter-day Saint). The new temple will also likely service members who live in neighboring African nations where no temples operate, such as Liberia (five stakes and one district), Senegal (two branches and one member group), and Guinea (one branch). Senior missionaries serving in the country have reported unprecedented interest and engagement from local members in temple and family history work. Sierra Leone currently pertains to the Accra Ghana Temple district. Prior to today's announcement, Sierra Leone was the country with the second most members without a temple (per year-end 2018 figures). There were 21,286 members as of year-end 2018. Member activity and convert retention rates in Sierra Leone have been moderate during the past 5-8 years, and were low prior to that time. Sierra Leone's population was most recently estimated at 6.3 million. The new temple will likely be a small temple under 25,000 square feet given recent trends with temple construction in Africa.

Orem Utah Temple
The Church announced its 22nd temple in Utah this evening. The new temple in Orem was likely announced to reduce overcrowding in neighboring temples in Provo and American Fork. The new temple will likely service 20-30 stakes in Orem and Lindon. Utah temples are among the busiest in the Church, and additional temples have been regularly announced to meet demand for temple attendance. There are over 2.1 million members of the Church in Utah. Given recent trends in temple construction in Utah, the Orem Utah Temple is likely to be a moderately-sized temple between 40,000 and 70,000 square feet.

Port Moresby Papua New Guinea Temple
Papua New Guinea has held the position as the country with the most Latter-day Saints without a temple since 2018 when a temple was announced for Nicaragua. The Church in Papua New Guinea has experienced moderate growth overall since its initial establishment in 1979. The first Papuan stake was organized in 1995 in Port Moresby and only one additional stake has since been organized (Daru in 2011). However, significant proliferation of districts has occurred in the past 20 years from two to 12. The Church in Papua New Guinea faces many significant challenges in regards to poverty, illiteracy, tribalism, geographical isolation, and language barriers. The greatest success with growth and high member activity and convert retention has occurred in Western Province, whereas the greatest challenges in member activity and leadership development have appeared to occur in Port Moresby (where the Church still has only one stake despite efforts for many years to organize more stakes). Nevertheless, senior missionaries report plans for additional districts to become stakes in the near future. Only 0.40% of the national population is a Latter-day Saint - one of the lowest percentages in Oceania. There are 28,249 Latter-day Saints in Papua New Guinea. Papua New Guinea's population was most recently estimated at seven million. The new temple may also service members in the Solomon Islands (one district) given similarities with language and geographical proximity. The new temple will likely be a small temple under 20,000 square feet given recent trends in temple construction. Also, it is likely that the new temple will include patron housing to accommodate members who travel long distances to reach the temple.

Bentonville Arkansas Temple
Northwestern Arkansas has been one of my top predictions for a new temple for over a decade due to a growing and sizable concentration of Latter-day Saints far from the nearest temple (the Rogers metropolitan area is divided between the Kansas City Missouri Temple and the Oklahoma City Oklahoma Temple). The new temple is the Church's first temple in Arkansas. Prior to today's announcement, Arkansas was the state with the third most Latter-day Saints without a temple (after Kansas and New Jersey). The Church has reported slow to moderate growth in Arkansas as a whole within the past 30 years albeit the percentage of Latter-day Saints in the population has doubled during this time to 1.05% as of 2018. Of the three stakes headquartered in extreme northwestern Arkansas, two have been organized since 2005. The new temple will likely service members from four stakes in Arkansas and five stakes in southern Missouri. The new temple appears likely to be a small-to-moderate size temple between 20,00 and 50,000 square feet given recent trends in temple construction in areas of the United States that service similarly-sized numbers of Latter-day Saints.

Bacolod Philippines Temple
The Church announced its seventh temple for the Philippines in Bacolod. Bacolod is the most populous city (over 600,000 inhabitants in 2015) on the island of Negros in the Philippines. The new temple is the Church's second temple to be announced for the Visayas region of the Philippines (islands between Luzon and Mindanao) - the first being the Cebu City Philippines Temple which was dedicated in 2010. Of the 101 administrative divisions in the Philippines, Bacolod ranks as the highest for the percentage of government census-reported Latter-day Saints at 0.76% in 2015. The new temple will likely service 12 stakes and five districts on the islands of Negros and Panay. The first branch of the Church in Bacolod was created in 1967, and the first stake in Bacolod was organized in 1981. There are three stakes in the city of Bacolod - the newest of which was created in 2000. The new temple will likely be a small temple under 30,000 square feet given recent trends for temple construction in the region. The Church in the Philippines has experienced significant progress with increases in the number of active members and the maturation of districts into stakes. Today, there are 114 stakes and 63 districts in the Philippines. There were 785,164 members in the Philippines as of year-end 2018 - the fourth highest in the world after the United States, Mexico, and Brazil.

McAllen Texas Temple
Latter-day Saints in extreme southern Texas have hoped for many years to have a temple announced given significant challenges with long distance to the nearest temple in San Antonio, Texas. The new temple will likely include nine stakes and one district in southern Texas and northern Mexico. There are two stakes in McAllen and one stake in Harlingen. Stakes in Laredo (organized in 2018) and Corpus Christi will also likely pertain to the new temple district. The first stake in extreme southern Texas was organized in 1975. The area has historically struggled with low convert retention and member activity rates. Many, if not most, members in the region are Spanish-speaking. The new temple appears likely to be a small temple under 30,000 square feet.

There are now five temples (four dedicated) in Texas. The Church in Texas reported 357,625 members at year-end 2018.

Cobán Guatemala Temple
The Church announced its third temple for Guatemala today. The Cobán Guatemala Temple will likely be a small temple under 20,000 square feet given there are only four stakes and three districts in northern Guatemala. Nevertheless, this area of Guatemala has recently experienced significant progress with growth as evidenced by increases in the number of congregations and the organization of three new stakes within the past four years - including the first two Q'eqchi'-speaking stakes in the Church. Returned missionaries and local members report good member activity rates in many areas, particularly rural ones inhabited by the Q'eqchi' people, whereas more populous urban areas appear to have low activity rates. The new temple will likely also serve neighboring Belize where there are two districts. Historically, the Church in Guatemala has experienced slow membership and congregational growth within the past 20 years albeit there have been significant improvements in increases in number of active members per congregation during this period. There were 277,755 members in Guatemala as of year-end 2018.

Taylorsville Utah Temple
The Church also announced Utah's 23rd temple this evening for Taylorsville. The new temple appears likely to serve 30-40 stakes in West Valley City, Magna, Taylorsville, Kearns, and Murray. This area of the Salt Lake Metropolitan area numbers among the least reached urban areas in regards to proximity to a temple, but it also numbers among urban Utah areas where the Church has reported its largest decreases in the number of wards and branches during the past 15 years. This has appeared primarily driven by active Latter-day Saint families who move away from these older communities in search of newer, larger, and/or less expensive homes. Members in Taylorsville and West Valley City generally attend the Jordan River Utah Temple, Oquirrh Mountain Utah Temple, or Salt Lake Temple.