Saturday, April 6, 2019

2018 Projected Membership by Country

Within the next couple weeks, the Church will likely publish country-by-country data regarding the number of Church-reported members. See below for my projections for year-end 2018 membership by country. Most of the estimates below were generated from assuming membership growth occurred at the same rate in 2018 as it did in 2017. However, I have made a few adjustments, such as in regards to the United States and Mexico where membership growth rates have likely continued to decelerate.



World
           16,223,596
United States
             6,600,000
Mexico
             1,450,000
Brazil
             1,410,000
Philippines
                 784,827
Peru
                 601,716
Chile
                 594,361
Argentina
                 459,510
Guatemala
                 275,000
Ecuador
                 248,012
Bolivia
                 207,089
Colombia
                 204,356
Canada
                 197,992
United Kingdom
                 187,856
Honduras
                 178,003
Nigeria
                 174,587
Venezuela
                 168,887
Australia
                 153,236
Dominican Republic
                 137,579
Japan
                 129,814
El Salvador
                 127,222
New Zealand
                 114,506
Uruguay
                 105,943
Nicaragua
                 101,300
Paraguay
                   94,918
South Korea
                   88,083
Ghana
                   83,595
Samoa
                   82,128
South Africa
                   67,381
Tonga
                   65,492
Congo, Democratic Republic of
                   62,559
Taiwan
                   61,022
Panama
                   58,214
Spain
                   57,880
Costa Rica
                   50,208
Cote d'Ivoire
                   48,201
Portugal
                   45,199
Germany
                   40,063
France
                   39,675
Zimbabwe
                   33,360
Papua New Guinea
                   28,470
French Polynesia
                   28,214
Italy
                   27,300
Hong Kong
                   24,835
Haiti
                   23,769
Russia
                   23,324
Puerto Rico
                   23,140
Thailand
                   22,926
Fiji
                   21,283
Sierra Leone
                   21,215
Kiribati
                   21,012
Uganda
                   16,801
American Samoa
                   16,498
Cape Verde
                   14,906
Cambodia
                   14,796
Kenya
                   14,015
India
                   13,999
Liberia
                   13,179
Madagascar
                   12,422
Mozambique
                   12,263
China
                   12,000
Mongolia
                   11,846
Ukraine
                   11,237
Malaysia
                   10,438
Sweden
                      9,772
Vanuatu
                      9,666
Netherlands
                      9,544
Switzerland
                      8,791
Indonesia
                      7,509
Congo, Republic of
                      7,497
Jamaica
                      6,504
Marshall Islands
                      6,494
Micronesia
                      6,447
Belgium
                      6,370
Guyana
                      6,006
Belize
                      5,416
Hungary
                      5,236
Finland
                      4,842
Austria
                      4,710
Norway
                      4,613
Denmark
                      4,478
Togo
                      4,464
Zambia
                      4,420
Pakistan
                      4,400
Ireland
                      3,990
Benin
                      3,572
Armenia
                      3,528
Botswana
                      3,517
Trinidad and Tobago
                      3,474
Singapore
                      3,353
Albania
                      3,124
Romania
                      3,045
Malawi
                      3,004
Angola
                      2,793
Czech Republic
                      2,643
Guam
                      2,601
Vietnam
                      2,600
New Caledonia
                      2,457
Bulgaria
                      2,407
Cameroon
                      2,258
Swaziland
                      2,048
Poland
                      2,026
Ethiopia
                      1,930
Cook Islands
                      1,843
Tanzania
                      1,768
Suriname
                      1,611
Sri Lanka
                      1,586
United Arab Emirates
                      1,567
Macau
                      1,469
Solomon Islands
                      1,246
Latvia
                      1,242
Lesotho
                      1,165
Estonia
                      1,120
Barbados
                      1,089
Bahamas
                      1,055
Lithuania
                         976
Reunion
                         969
Namibia
                         853
Northern Mariana Islands
                         846
Greece
                         832
Rwanda
                         802
Burundi
                         780
St. Vincent
                         713
Croatia
                         631
Aruba
                         618
Turkey
                         581
Qatar
                         560
Virgin Islands, U.S.
                         555
Curacao
                         526
Palau
                         525
Mauritius
                         520
Guadeloupe
                         505
Luxembourg
                         477
Cyprus
                         457
French Guiana
                         453
Moldova
                         435
Grenada
                         434
Slovenia
                         417
Serbia
                         388
St. Lucia
                         385
Kuwait
                         350
Israel
                         318
Niue
                         309
Cuba
                         300
Iceland
                         291
Tuvalu
                         285
Slovakia
                         276
Jersey
                         275
Isle of Man
                         275
Georgia
                         271
Turks and Caicos Islands
                         264
Gabon
                         262
Central African Republic
                         252
Martinique
                         248
Cayman Islands
                         246
Antigua and Barbuda
                         244
Malta
                         222
St. Maarten
                         221
Bahrain
                         215
Bermuda
                         190
St. Kitts and Nevis
                         184
Kazakhstan
                         182
Dominica
                         157
Virgin Islands, British
                         150
Nauru
                         124
Senegal
                         120
Kosovo
                         110
Morocco
                            90
Oman
                            82
Guinea
                            80
Bosnia and Herzegovina
                            72
Guernsey
                            66
Macedonia
                            40
Montenegro
                            15

13 comments:

  1. My understanding is that growth of the Church has sped up in Germany. For instance, my ward has seen nearly a dozen convert baptisms since last General Conference, and at least from what I hear from missionaries, most of their areas are becoming more productive.

    I doubt, however, that this will make a big dent on the numbers. 40,500 would be nice but it is probably a stretch for year-end 2018.

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  2. A new Mandarin speaking branch was formed in Riverside California.

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  3. Out of curiosity, did you adjust the numbers for Venezuela, and do you have any sense of how many Church members left that country in 2018?

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  4. Something to look for during cnference. Anytime a speaker is shown head-on, not a side-angle shot, look just to the right of his or her upper body, there is a small grey model of what looks like a temple close to the edge of the screen and alightly obscured by a leaf from one of the potted plants also there

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  5. As the shadows fell at a certain angles during the earlier speakers it gave a central spire effect giving the appearance of a Temple - but that image expands with different lighting/angles into a rectangle ... during Pres. Eyring's remarks it was more visible and looked like a rectangular container, a flower box - visible through the myriad of leaves & foliage. It looks like part of the flower box arrangements to me ...

    But it would be very cool if there was a small miniature Temple model 'hiding in plain sight' that President Nelson reaches for to demonstrate his vision of projected Temples to dot the earth - just to see how closely we're paying attention to Conference :)

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  6. Benin City Nigeria Ihogbe Stake
    - Unity Ward created

    Benin City Nigeria Sokponba Stake
    - Niger Cat Branch created

    Benin City Nigeria Ugbowo Stake
    - Iguosa Ward created

    Ibadan Nigeria North Stake created
    - Adegbayi, Akobo, Mokola, Ojoo, Sawmill Wards transferred from Ibadan Nigeria Stake
    - Oke Itunu, Olodo Branches transferred from Ibadan Nigeria Stake
    - Oyo Branch transferred from Ilorin Nigeria District

    Ilorin Nigeria District
    - Tanke Branch transferred from Nigeria Lagos Mission

    Nsukwa Nigeria District created
    - Nsukwa 1st, 2nd & Ossissa Branch transferred from Ogwashi-Nsukwa Nigeria District

    Ogwashi-Nsukwa Nigeria District renamed Ogwashi Nigeria District
    - Adonte 1st and 2nd Branches transferred to Nigeria Benin City Mission (will probably be transferred to Nsukwa Nigeria District soon)

    Kyoto Japan Stake
    - Katsura Ward discontinued

    Naga Philippines Stake
    - Tinambac Branch created

    Micronesia Guam Mission
    - Micronesia Guam Mission Branch created

    New Zealand Auckland Mission
    - New Zealand Auckland Mission Branch created

    Papua New Guinea Lae Mission
    - Papua New Guinea Lae Mission Branch created

    Upolu Samoa Nu'umau Stake
    - Eva Ward created

    Nuku'alofa Tonga Central Stake
    - Havelu Tokelau Ward created
    - Haveluloto 1st Ward renamed Fanga 'O Pilolevu Ward
    - Haveluloto 2nd Ward renamed Havelu Piki Pea Vela Ward
    - Haveluloto 3rd Ward renamed Havelu Paini Tu'u Ua Ward
    - Haveluloto 4th Ward renamed Haveluloto Ward

    Vanuatu Port Vila Mission
    - Vanuatu Port Vila Mission Branch created

    Necochea Argentina District
    - Tres Arroys 1st Branch renamed Tres Arroyos Branch
    - Tres Arroyos 2nd Branch discontinued

    Barbados Bridgetown Mission
    - Barbados Bridgetown Mission Branch created

    São José dos Campos Brazil South Stake
    - Jardim Florida Ward created

    Valencia Venezuela Candelaria Stake
    - Nueva Valencia Ward discontinued

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  7. Calgary Alberta Bow River Stake
    - Memorial Ward (Tagalog) created

    Gilbert Arizona San Tan Stake
    - Arbors Park Ward created
    - Recker Ward created
    - Coronado 1st Ward renamed Arrowhead Trail Ward
    - Coronado 2nd Ward renamed Canal Trail Ward
    - Coronado 3rd Ward renamed Higley Village Ward
    - Power Ranch 1st Ward renamed Vineyards Park Ward
    - Power Ranch 2nd Ward renamed Ranch House Ward
    - Power Ranch 3rd Ward renamed Orchard Park Ward
    - The Bridges Ward renamed Hemet Park Ward

    Sierra Vista Arizona Stake
    - Yaqui Ward created

    Hayward California Stake
    - Hayward YSA Ward discontinued

    Jurupa California Stake
    - Orchard Park Branch (Mandarin) created

    Menlo Park California Stake
    - Palo Alto 1st Ward renamed Palo Alto Baylands Ward
    - Palo Alto 2nd Ward renamed Palo Alto Foothills Ward

    Rancho Cucamonga California Stake
    - Chaffey Ward renamed Haven Ward
    - Highland Ward renamed Woodruff Ward
    - Hillside Ward renamed Archibald Ward
    - Victoria Ward renamed Day Creek Ward
    - Redhill Ward discontinued
    - Terra Vista Ward discontinued
    - Hermosa Branch (Spanish) discontinued

    Orlando Florida South Stake
    - Orlando Branch (Portuguese) created

    Driggs Idaho Stake
    - Driggs 5th Branch (Spanish) discontinued

    Nampa Idaho North Stake
    - Nampa 21st Ward reinstated
    - Nampa 40th Ward created
    - Nampa 41st Ward created

    Council Bluffs Iowa Stake
    - Bellevue 1st & Plattsmouth Ward transferred to Omaha Nebraska Papillion Stake

    Omaha Nebraska Millard Stake created
    - Chalco Hills, Elmwood, Gretna, Harrison Hills, Millard, Rockbrook Ward and Field Club Branch transferred from Omaha Nebraska Papillion Stake
    - Lakeview Ward transferred from Omaha Nebraska Stake

    Omaha Nebraska Stake
    - Columbus Branch transferred from Lincoln Nebraska Stake
    - Fontenelle & Winter Quarters Ward transferred to Council Bluffs Iowa Stake

    Omaha Nebraska Papillion Stake
    - Cold Spring YSA Ward discontinued

    Dayton Ohio East Stake
    - Beavercreek Ward renamed Beavercreek 1st Ward
    - Beavercreek 2nd Ward created

    Hermiston Oregon Stake
    - Hermiston Ward renamed Desert View Ward
    - Umatilla Ward renamed Umatilla River Ward

    West Columbia South Carolina Stake
    - Chapin Branch upgraded to Ward

    Lehi Utah Holbrook Farms Stake created
    - Evans Farm, Holbrook Farms 1st & 2nd, Jordan Willows 1st, 2nd & 7th Ward transferred from Lehi Utah Jordan Willows Stake

    Mendon Utah Stake
    - Petersboro Ward renamed Petersboro 1st Ward
    - Petersboro 2nd Ward created

    Enumclaw Washington Stake
    - Enumclaw 1st Ward renamed Enumclaw Ward
    - Enumclaw 2nd Ward renamed Black Diamond Ward
    - Enumclaw 3rd Ward discontinued

    Marysville Washington Stake
    - Cedar Crest Ward renamed Jennings Park Ward
    - Foothills Park Ward renamed Harborview Ward
    - Quil Ceda Creek Ward discontinued

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  8. U.S. membership in 2017 was 6,642,000. Are you forecasting a 42,000 member decline in the U.S. in one year?

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  9. Our detractors are already crowing about this, as I run across suggested videos on Youtube where they say we're going down, often using hyperbole in the video's title or thumbnail image.

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  10. That people in the Church reject the teachings of the Church does not have any bearing on weather the Church is true.

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  11. Joel, I think the estimate for US membership should be closer to 6,690,000, not 6,600,000.

    Matt's estimate for the world was only 16,223,596, vs. the announced total of 16,313,735. That's where I came up with the 90,000 member discrepancy, and I believe the higher figure will be close to what is announced in the coming days.

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