Is the LDS Church Growing?

I am frequently asked by interested readers, news media, and personal contacts whether the LDS Church is actually growing or not. This is a complex question to answer in regards to what measurements are examined, the analysis of growth trends over time, and whether growth is examined in a specific area or for the Church as a whole. The following will provide an overview of the most salient findings that suggest the worldwide Church is growing, or experiencing stagnation or decline. A previous analysis from 2012 can be found here.

Here are some statistics that indicate the Church is growing:

• Increases in the number of countries with stakes: 
• Since 2010, there have been 20 countries where the Church has organized its first stake. There has never been a time in LDS history when as many countries have had their first stakes organized within as short of a period of time.
• Increases in the number of countries assigned to missions:
• The number of countries assigned to missions has steadily increased since 2010. Examples of countries assigned to missions during this time include Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Gabon, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Macedonia, Montenegro, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
• Increases in the worldwide number of active members:
• Although no official statistics are available, the number of active members in the Church has appeared to steadily increase within recent years as evidenced by the organization of new stakes and congregations. A recent article in the Salt Lake Tribute quotes a church spokesman who notes that "upward growth has continued."
• Steady increases in the worldwide number of stakes:
• Stake growth has not only been sustained in recent years, but it has accelerated. The number of new stakes organized totaled 48 in 2013, 64 in 2014, 67 in 2015, and 80 thus far in 2016. The annual percentage growth rate for stakes has also increased from 1.5% in 2013 to at least 2.5% in 2016.
• Steady increases in the worldwide number of temples:
• The number of temples announced, under construction, or in operation continues to increase. For example, there were 102 operating temples at year-end 2000. There will be 155 operating temples by year-end 2016.
• Increases in the number of nations with full-time missionaries assigned:
• Many countries have had young, full-time missionaries assigned for the first time since 2010. Notable examples include Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burma (Myanmar), Burundi (until mid-2015 when missionaries were removed due to civil unrest), Gabon, Kosovo, Laos, Macedonia, Montenegro, Rwanda, and Turkey.
• Increases in the number of cities with an LDS presence:
• The Church has organized new congregations in previously unreached cities at a more rapid rate than the number of cities where the only LDS congregation has closed. 
• Improvements in commensurate membership and congregational growth:
•  Membership and congregational growth rates for the worldwide church have become more proportional. Congregational growth was a mere 1/5 the rate of membership growth in 2011, whereas congregational growth was 4/5 the rate of membership growth in 2015. This finding signals improvements in convert retention and member activity.

Here are some statistics that indicate LDS growth is stagnant or declining:

• Slow congregational growth rates for the worldwide Church:
• Congregational growth rates have been very slow for the Church as a whole, ranging from 0.4-1.3% within the past eight years. As the world's population currently grows by 1.08% a year, it appears that the Church's congregational growth in comparison to the world's population growth has been nearly equal during this time. 
• Steady net decreases in the number of districts:
• The number of districts has declined every year since 2009. The number of districts has decreased from 622 in 2008 to approximately 551 at present. As district growth is a strong indicator of the expansion of the Church into lesser-reached areas, this finding suggests a slowdown in the expansion of the Church into additional areas.
• Decrease in the percentage of full-time missionaries in general church membership
• The percentage of full-time missionaries among general church membership declined from 0.64% in 1977 to 0.37% in 2010, and increased to 0.47% in 2015.
• No noticeable change in the number of converts baptized a year
• The Church has reported essentially no significant change in the number of converts baptized each year. The Church has baptized an average of 277,000 converts a year since 2010. To contrast, the Church baptized an average of 287,000 converts a year between 1988 and 2009. The average number of converts baptized per missionary declined from 8.0 in 1989 to approximately 5.0 in 2011 and 3.5 in 2015.
• Stagnant increases with the number of children of record
• The increase of children of record has not significantly increased over the past 35 years. The Church reported an increase of 124,000 children of record in 1982 - more than any year since this time. The Church has generally reported an annual increase of children of record between 110,000-120,000 since 2008.
• Decreasing membership growth rates
• The Church's annual membership growth rate has steadily declined within the past 15 years from 2.9% in 2000 to 2.3% in 2003, 2.0% in 2013, and 1.7% in 2015. 
• Lack of growth in seminary and institute enrollment
• Seminary and institute enrollment has fluctuated from approximately 700,000 to 760,000 within the past 15 years despite an increase of more than four million members during this period.
• Decrease in the number of MTCs:
• The Church has reported a net decrease in the number of missionary training centers during the past 20 years. MTCs have closed in Japan, Korea, Samoa, and Tonga.
• Decrease in the number of church areas:
• The Church has reported a net decrease in administrative areas from 30 in 2003 to 25 in 2012.