April 2013 Newsletter

We have posted our April 2013 newsletter for cumorah.com detailing recent LDS growth news and recently posted and updated resources on our website. Access the newsletter here.

New District Created in Vanuatu

Last Sunday, the Church organized a new district in Vanuatu.

The Tanna Vanuatu District was organized from a division of the Port Vila Vanuatu District and includes the following five branches: The Greenhill, Greenpoint, Saetsiwi, White Sands, and Whitegrass Branches. Three member groups also appear to operate within the district in Lapangtawa, Lemdewakel, and Port Resolution. The Church has experienced rapid growth on Tanna within the past decade and today some of the branches have as many as 300 members attending church.

There are now four districts on Vanuatu. One district (Port Vila) appears close to becoming a stake, whereas one district (Luganville) appears close to splitting to create a new district on Ambae Island.

First Two Stakes to be Created in Cambodia this May

Missionaries in Cambodia report that this May the Church will create its first two stakes in Cambodia from the Phnom Penh Cambodia North and Phnom Penh Cambodia South Districts. The Church has worked for many years to create stakes in the country. Currently Cambodia is the country with the most members without a stake.

Updated List of the Countries with the Most Latter-day Saints without a Stake or District

I recently updated the list of countries with the most members without a stake and I also wanted to update the list of countries with the most members without a stake or district. The 2012 list for these countries can be found here.

A district resembles a stake in that it is an administrative organization that includes congregations. However, a district can only include branches and does not have as much autonomy as a stake. For example, a mission president conducts temple recommend interviews and most priesthood matters defer to the mission president. A district is an important preparatory step toward the Church become self-sufficient in an area. Many countries currently without their own stake or district have few available local priesthood holders due to low member activity rates or recent converts with limited leadership experience comprising the bulk of nominal church membership.

Each country and territory is provided below with the number of members, number of branches, and current, if any, affiliation with another stake or district.  Countries in green appear likely to have their first districts/stakes created in the near future, countries in yellow generally have a large number of recent converts and few active priesthood holders to hold leadership positions but high likelihood to have districts organized in the coming years, countries in red have member activity issues or too few members that prevent the creation of a district in the foreseeable future, countries in blue pertain to other stakes or districts and do not appear likely to become their own districts due to reasonably close proximity to their current stake or district headquarters, and countries in dark blue have a poor likelihood of the organization of their first district due to few members spread over large geographic areas.

1. Bulgaria - 2,402 members - 9 branches
2. Macau - 1,347 members - 2 branches
3. Bahamas - 962 members - 2 branches, 1 group?
4. Lesotho - 838 members - 3 branches - part of the Bloemfontein South Africa Stake
5. Northern Mariana Islands - 779 members - 1 branch - part of the Barrigada Guam Stake
6. Namibia - 775 members - 2 branches, 1 group
7. Greece - 748 members - 4 branches, 2 groups?
8. US Virgin Islands - 585 members - 2 branches
9. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines - 578 members - 2 branches, 1 group
10. Curacao - 588 members - 1 branch
11. Aruba - 507 members - 2 branches
12. Palau - 447 members - 1 branch
13. Mauritius - 442 members - 2 branches
14. Luxembourg - 358 members - 1 ward - part of the Nancy France Stake
15. French Guiana - 362 members - 1 branch, 1 group?
16. Grenada - 279 members - 1 branch
17. Turkey - 293 members - 4 branches
18. Jersey - 307 members - 1 ward - part of the Poole England Stake
19. Burundi - 300 members? - 2 branches
20. Isle of Man - 300 members - 1 ward - part of the Liverpool England Stake
21. Niue - 280 members - 2 branches
22. Iceland - 268 members - 2 branches
23. Saint Lucia - 263 members - 2 branches, 1 group?
24. Republic of Georgia - 250 members - 1 branch, 1 group
25. Laos - 245 members? - 1 branch
26. Kazakhstan - 240 members - 1 branch, 1 group
27. Slovakia - 203 members - 4 branches, 3 groups - part of the Brno Czech Republic District
28. Saint Maarten/Saint Martin - 232 members - 1 branch
29. Rwanda - 221 members - 3 branches
30. Antigua and Barbuda - 209 members - 1 branch
31. Tuvalu - 205 members, 1 branch
32. Cayman Islands - 204 members, 1 branch

Of these 32 countries and dependencies, 12 once had districts but no longer do, namely Bulgaria (2), the Bahamas, Namibia, Greece, Curacao, Aruba, Palau, Mauritius, French Guiana, Turkey, Niue, and Iceland.

Countries with the Highest Members-to-Units Ratio: 2013 Figures

The members-to-units ratio is a statistic ascertained by dividing church-reported membership by the total number of congregations. Countries with high member-to-unit ratios invariably experience low member activity rates as there are an insufficient number of active members to create additional congregations.

Below is a list of the 20 countries and dependencies with the highest members-to-units ratios for 2013.

1. Chile - 950
2. Nicaragua - 836
3. Northern Mariana Islands - 779
4. Bolivia - 733
5. Hong Kong - 721
6. Ecuador - 720
7. El Salvador - 715
8. Honduras - 710
9. Peru - 701
10. Colombia - 699
11. Panama - 695
12. Mexico - 679
13. Macau -  674
14. South Korea - 673
15. Uruguay - 667
16. Kiribati - 641
17. Brazil - 634
18. Paraguay - 624
19. Dominican Republic - 617
20. Venezuela - 600

Member activity rates have appeared to worsen in most countries within the past decade as evidenced by substantial increases in the members-to-units ratio. This finding is supported by only two nations in 2003 reporting members-to-units ratios of over 600 (the Northern Mariana Islands and Chile).

First Stake to be Created in Jamaica this June

Missionaries serving in the Jamaica Kingston Mission report that the Church has approved the organization of the first stake in Jamaica during the weekend of June 7th and 8th. The Church has attempted to organize a stake in Jamaica for over a decade but has experienced challenges with member inactivity problems and few active, full-tithe paying Melchizedek Priesthood holders. The approved organization of the stake signals some real progress in addressing these concerns within the past couple years.

Jamaica currently ranks as the country with the seventh most members without a stake.

Updated List of the Countries with the Most Members without a Stake

Below is an updated list of the countries with the most Latter-day Saints without a stake. Membership totals are as of 2013 and congregational and district totals are current. Membership totals for mainland China and Pakistan are estimates as no official statistics are available. The number of branches and districts in mainland China is not provided due to the sensitive nature of the Church in that country.  Previous lists of the most countries without a stake can be found here.

1. Cambodia - 12,223 members - 28 branches - 6 districts
2. China - 11,000 members?
3. Malaysia - 9,259 members - 34 branches - 8 districts
4. Liberia - 8,081 members - 22 branches - 2 districts
5. Mozambique - 6,900 members - 21 branches - 2 districts
6. Vanuatu - 6,103 members - 31 branches - 3 districts
7. Jamaica - 5,712 members - 19 branches - 2 districts
8. Guyana - 5,474 members - 13 branches - 1 district
9. Belize - 4,502 members - 11 branches - 2 districts
10. Pakistan - 3,700 members? - 13 branches? - 3 districts
11. Romania - 2,990 members - 16 branches - 2 districts
12. Zambia - 2,758 members - 12 branches - 2 districts
13. Bulgaria - 2,402 members - 9 branches - 0 districts
14. Czech Republic - 2,396 members - 13 branches - 2 districts
15. Cook Islands - 1,844 members - 5 branches - 1 district
16. Poland - 1,813 members - 14 branches - 2 districts
17. Ethiopia - 1,807 members - 6 branches - 1 district
18. Swaziland - 1,693 members - 4 branches - 1 district
19. Malawi - 1,653 members - 8 branches - 1 district
20. Benin - 1,439 members - 11 branches - 1 district

Prospects appear most favorable for the formation of stakes within the next few years in Cambodia, Malaysia, Liberia, Mozambique, Vanuatu, Jamaica, Belize, Zambia, and Benin as all of these countries has at least one district that is close to reaching the minimum qualifications for a stake to operate.  Low member activity rates, an insufficient number of branches in individual member districts, and few full-tithe paying Melchizedek Priesthood holders will likely continue to delay the organization of stakes in other countries for several more years to come.

Congregational Growth by Country: 2013

Below is a list of the countries where the Church reported a net increase of four or more units for the year 2013.  The annual percentage increase for the number of wards and branches is also provided:

1. United States +124 (0.9% increase)
2. Brazil +31 (1.6% increase)
3. Nigeria +28 (8.0% increase)
4. Ghana +20 (13.5% increase)
5. Cote d'Ivoire +19 (35.8% increase)
6. Democratic Republic of the Congo +14 (12.1% increase)
7. Philippines +14 (1.2% increase)
8. Cape Verde +8 (34.8% increase)
9. Canada +7 (1.5% increase)
10. Australia +6 (2.1% increase)
11. Benin +5 (83.3% increase)
12. New Zealand +4 (1.9% increase)
13. Portugal +4 (5.9% increase)

The net increase in the number of wards and branches in these 13 countries totals 284; a larger number than the net increase in the number of wards and branches for the entire Church for the year 2013 (239). Nine  countries experienced a net decrease of four or more units during 2013 including:

1. Argentina -23 (2.8% decrease)
2. Venezuela -12 (4.3% decrease)
3. Peru -10 (1.3% decrease)
4. Chile -8 (1.3% decrease)
5. Uruguay -7 (4.4% decrease)
6. Colombia -7 (2.6% decrease)
7. Paraguay -6 (4.1% decrease)
8. Mexico -5 (0.3% decrease)
9. Papua New Guinea -4 (5.2% decrease)

Decreasing numbers of congregations in Argentina are particularly concerning as the Church has experienced a net decrease in congregations for several years notwithstanding church membership increasing by tens of thousands during this period. So far in 2014, many wards and branches have continued to have been closed in Argentina. It is important to note that unlike other countries in Latin America during the early 2000s, the Church in Argentina did not undergo a period of congregation consolidations during this period.

Membership by Country Statistics Released for 2013

Membership and congregation totals for nations with a reported LDS presence are now available on the Church's official website and can be found at http://www.mormonnewsroom.org/facts-and-statistics. Data is available under the country profiles on the right side of the site.

The 20 countries with the highest annual membership growth rates in 2013 are listed below. Lists for nations with the most rapid membership growth rates are also available for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. The percentage next to the country name is the annual growth rate percentage which is followed by the country's LDS membership at year-end 2012. Countries in bold experienced a membership increase greater than 200. 

1. Rwanda - 82.6% - 221
2. Botswana - 40.4% - 3,021
3. Benin - 33.1% - 1,439
4. Togo - 24.0% - 2,307
5. Dominica - 23.6% - 173
6. Cote d'Ivoire - 21.4% - 22,576
7. Liberia - 20.5% - 8,081
8. Malawi - 16.3% - 1,653
9. Cape Verde - 15.8% - 10,796
10. Georgia - 15.7% - 250
11. Mozambique - 14.4% - 6,900
12. Angola - 14.2% - 1,436
13. Sierra Leone - 12.1% - 13,078
14. Swaziland - 11.2% - 1,693
15. Vanuatu - 11.1% - 6,103
16. Kazakhstan - 11.1% - 240
17. Solomon Islands - 10.8% - 564
18. Ghana - 10.2% - 57,748
19. Grenada - 10.2% - 336
20. Democratic Republic of the Congo - 9.7% - 37,909

Below is a list of the top ten countries by numerical increase in membership for the year 2013. Each country is provided with the national increase in membership and the percentage of this increase out of total Church membership increase. Lists are also available for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012.  71.6% of 2013 LDS membership increase can be attributed to the following 10 nations. 

1. United States - 77,473 - 27.0%
2. Brazil - 40,099 - 13.4%
3. Mexico - 26,539 - 8.9%
4. Peru - 16,110 - 5.4%
5. Philippines - 12,951 - 4.3%
6. Argentina - 9,876 - 3.3%
7. Ecuador - 9,082 - 3.0%
8. Nigeria - 8,141 - 2.7%
9. Guatemala - 7,974 - 3.7%
10. Honduras - 6,230 - 2.1%

I will post an analysis of 2013 congregational growth in the coming days.

First Official Branches Created in Tamale, Ghana

Opened to missionaries in February 2013, Tamale has a population of approximately half a million and is the most northern city in Ghana that has had full-time missionaries assigned. Multiple member groups were organized within the first couple months following the arrival of full-time missionaries in 2013. By early 2014, missionary reports indicated that as many as four member groups appeared to be operating. Few convert baptisms have occurred in the city as approximately 80% of the population is Muslim and missionaries were initially discouraged from teaching Muslims.

The Church recently organized two branches in Tamale, namely the Education Ridge and the Vitin Branches. These two branches only service half of the urban area of Tamale, suggesting that the two remaining member groups continue to operate but have not attained branch status.

See below for a map of LDS units in the Ghana Kumasi Mission.


View Wards and Branches in the Ghana Kumasi Mission in a larger map

Updated Missionary Numbers

The Church recently posted a brief article providing current figures for the number of full-time missionaries serving. As of March 31st, 2014, the Church reported the following statistics on its full-time missionary force:

• 85,039 members serving full-time missionaries. This is 2,004 more than at year-end 2013; a 2.4% increase in three months. There were 65,634 full-time missionaries on April 4th, 2013.
• 14,375 members who have received mission calls but not yet set apart. In April 2013, there were over 20,000 members who had received mission calls but had not yet been set apart.
• 6,306 members working on their missionary application. In April 2013, there were approximately 6,000 members working on their missionary applications.
• The full-time missionary force is currently 64% elders, 28% sisters, and 8% senior couples. In October 2013, the missionary force was 68% elders, 24% sisters, and 8% senior couples.

These statistics indicate that the number of members submitting missionary applications remains strong despite less substantial increases in the number of full-time missionaries serving. Perhaps the number of missionaries will continue to increase to over 90,000 by the end of 2014.

2013 Statistical Report

This afternoon, the Church reported the following statistics as of December 31st, 2013.

• Membership: 15,082,028 (increase of 299,555 from 2011; a 2.03% annual increase)
• Congregations: 29,253 (increase of 239 from 2011; a 0.82% annual increase)
• Stakes: 3,050 (increase of 45 from 2012; a 1.50% annual increase)
• Districts: 571 (a decrease of 20 from 2012; a 3.38% annual decrease)
• Convert Baptisms: 282,945 (increase of 10,615 from 2012; a 3.90% annual increase)
• Increase of Children on Record: 115,486 (decrease of 6,787 from 2012; a 5.55% annual decrease)
• Full-time missionaries: 83,035 (increase of 24,045 from 2012; a 40.8% annual increase)
• Church service missionaries: 24,032 (increase of 1,071 from 2012; a 4.66% annual increase)

Aside from the massive jump in the number of full-time missionaries serving, there were few noteworthy developments in the 2013 statistical report. Congregational and membership growth rates were more commensurate than in many previous years, suggesting higher convert retention and member activity rates. The number of convert baptisms was disappointingly low compared to the number of missionaries serving. The average number of converts baptized per missionary dropped to a new all-time low of 3.4 converts baptized per missionary.

Two New Missions to be Created This July in Africa

The Church announced the creation of two new missions this summer in Cote d'Ivoire and the Republic of the Congo.

Cote d'Ivoire Abidjan West Mission
The Cote d'Ivoire Abidjan Mission will be divided to create the Cote d'Ivoire Abidjan West Mission. Both missions will be headquartered in Abidjan - the most populous city in Cote d'Ivoire. The new mission will include all administrative divisions in Cote d'Ivoire except for Agnéby, Moyen-Comoé, Sud-Comoé, and Zanzan, and eastern areas of Lagunes. The Church has experienced some of its most rapid growth ever within Cote d'Ivoire within the past few years as noted in recent posts on this blog. Currently there are five stakes and three districts in Cote d'Ivoire, with the most recent district being created last Sunday (Gagnoa).

The Republic of the Congo Brazzaville Mission
As reported in March, the Church will organize a new mission from a division of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Kinshasa Mission. The Republic of the Congo Brazzaville Mission will include the Republic of the Congo, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. There is one stake and one district within the area that will be serviced by the new mission.

New Temple Predictions Map

As part of a tradition I have maintained for many years prior to General Conference, I have updated my map of likely locations for temples to be announced within the near future. There have not been any significant changes to the map since last October. Nairobi, Kenya was added because the Nairobi Kenya Stake is close to dividing to create a second stake in the metropolitan area, the closest temple to East Africa is in Johannesburg, South Africa, and there is good potential for many new districts to be organized in the region within the near future. Additionally, President Hinckley also publicly proposed that Nairobi would be the site of a future temple once there were a sufficient number of members in East Africa to warrant its construction. Membership has substantially grown within the past two decades. As of year-end 2012, there were approximately 26,500 members in East Africa (Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda).



View Potential New Temples in a larger map