Click here to access our April 2026 newsletter for cumorah.com. We will again begin issuing monthly newsletters going forward. Archived newsletters dating back to 2012 are also available on the site here.
The most significant announcement from The Cumorah Foundation this month is the completion of a comprehensive historical database of country-by-country Church statistics spanning more than a century. The database includes annual membership totals dating back to 1920 (when available) as well as annual statistics for congregations (including ward and branch breakdowns), stakes, districts, missions, and temples (announced and dedicated) for every country or territory for which data have been published by the Church. Historical data for wards, branches, stakes, districts, missions, and temples are available from 1987–2025.
Data were compiled from the retired Deseret News Church Almanac series and the Church’s official Newsroom site where annual country-by-country statistics have been published. To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive publicly available compilation of historical Church statistics ever assembled.
This resource provides valuable data for researchers, historians, journalists, members, and others interested in analyzing long-term trends in Church growth, missionary expansion, organizational development, congregational consolidation, and geographic outreach throughout the world. Users can identify historical milestones, compare regional growth patterns, and examine changes in Church development over time at both global and national levels.
The database is available for viewing in Google Sheets and may also be downloaded here.
38 comments:
Matt, This is a great work you've done on the "Comprehensive Historical Database". I'm curious if it's possible to break it down on a second Sheet by 1st Level Subdivisions by country? (i.e. States, Provinces, Regions) ?
Like I did several years ago in the wikipedia article now deleted called "List of Stakes of the Church". All Stakes at that time both active and historical by States, Provinces, Regions.
Here was the last wayback archive capture of my article on 27 December 2018.
https://web.archive.org/web/20181227073949/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stakes_of_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints
I served in Santiago, Chile and remember a prophecy by President Hinckley that the church there would reach one million members one day. Nice to see they have crossed 600,000. Hoping they can reach one million in my lifetime!
Next weekend, May 16-17, 2026, at least 2 neighboring Stakes in Mexico City Have Stake Conference scheduled. Both the "México City Alamedas Stake (1989626)", with 7 wards + 1 branch, and the "México City Bosques
(528595)" with 6 wards. The latter Bosques Stake has no other Conferences planned the latter half of 2026 yet. I wonder if they will be combined into 1 larger Stake, after it's last planned stake next weekend?
I couldn't find any Facebook group posts about a "Special Confernence" yet.
https://maps.churchofjesuschrist.org/stakes/1989626 (México City Alamedas Stake (1989626)
https://maps.churchofjesuschrist.org/stakes/528595 (México City Bosques
Stake (528595)
Also, the México City Meyehualco Stake (512427) and the México City Villa Coapa Stake (496553), neighbors have conference next sunday 5/17 also. So it may just be coincidence all 4 on the same weekend?
The Tula Mexico Mission is about to be created in June out of the Mexico City North and Mexico Pachuca missions. I predict the Alamedas Stake is being reassigned to the Mexico City North Mission and combined with the Bosques Stake in order for the North Mission to keep 5 stakes within its boundaries (which is the minimum for a mission in Mexico I believe).
Other Matt here...
It's been announced, Edmonton Alberta is getting its 10th area Stake. The new Spruce Grove Alberta Stake will be created May 24 split from the Edmonton North, Edmonton Riverbend, and Sherwood Park Stakes.
The Spruce Grove Alberta Stake will be created in the suburbs of Edmonton, Alberta, Canada on May 24.
Anyone read Jeff Strongs books on why people are leaving and what we can learn from them. Not sure if it is published yet, but what claims are true? Quite a few people no longer active that were in 2000? Many people, that are active don’t have a strong testimony?
Son left the church and he after shock wanted good relationship with him. Wayward children are a challenge for Many parents of wayward children want their children to have joy only the gospel can bring.
Was interviewed by Richard Ostler. Richard Ostler was a ysa Bishop who upon his release became obsessed with lbgtq members and interviewed them. Wrote books on the matter. I think Deseret Book took them off the shelf.
He wrote two other books on LDS culture. Mentioned people leaving the church. Says people with weak testimonies are needed. Respect people’s agency and “personal revelation” if they don’t serve missions or leave the church.
His brother was a mission president with some wayward children that wrote a book on understanding them. His book is called bridges. Richard in a blog talked of parents attending sons baptism in another church when everyone else was going on mission his age, supported him in his pathlike “Jesus would do”.
Does Jesus ever tell people to leave their covenants and join churches that can’t bring them to him. There is no compulsion and people have a right to worship how they choose. However the Lord wants everyone to come to him.
Did Lehi celebrate Laman and Lemuel’s choice not to eat of the fruit of the tree of life? Did Moses dance or tolerate the Golden Calf? He destroyed it.
What should we learn from people Like Jeff Strong and the Ostlers or people they interview that we can’t from faithful people? Do we learn anything of value from those that leave or don’t attend church? Or should we focus on those that are called to lead us to happiness?
Sounds like Edmonton is getting a new stake on May 24th, From Facebook:
...Under the direction of the First Presidency and Quorum of the Twelve Apostles, we announce a special stake conference for the Edmonton Alberta North Stake and the Edmonton Alberta Riverbend Stake along with Coronation Park Ward of the Edmonton Bonnie Doon Stake and the Wood Buffalo Ward from the Sherwood Park Alberta Stake. This special stake conference will be held on Sunday, May 24th at 10:00 am at the Edmonton Alberta North Stake Center...
...This special stake conference will create the Spruce Grove Alberta Stake (which will include the Devon, Drayton Valley, Onoway, Pioneer, Spruce Grove and Stony Plain Wards and the Hinton and Whitecourt Branches) and will add the Coronation Park Ward and the Wood Buffalo Ward to the Edmonton Alberta Riverbend Stake.
https://www.deseret.com/opinion/2026/05/07/latter-day-saint-stats-representative-data/
Check out this article in response to Jeff Strong. Basically, his survey isn't great. He surveyed internet going Mormons and ex-Mormons (not very representative) and drew conclusions from that. I personally wouldn't put much stock in this survey.
The General Santos Philippines Stake will be holding a special stake conference on May 24, presided by Elder Nash. With 10 wards and a branch, it seems likely this will be a stake split.
The 4th stake in Maputo, Mozambique also will likely be created on May 31, as all 3 stakes in the area have a combined conference that day.
I think the interpreter is French-speaking, based on my, um, basically zero knowledge of each language.
Lubumbashi (on the southern end of the country) does have Swahili-speaking units, so I wouldn't be surprised if another step (3, 5, 10 years down the road) in DRC will be making the gospel programs equally available in the non-colonial languages. Unfortunately, I think the number of African languages has made it difficult to add specific units for all of them, or even (as in Kisangani) the most prominent ones.
Membership in Kisangani is quite diverse with language. When the first branches were created there 10 years ago, the reports I received were than about one-third of converts spoke Lingala, one-third spoke French, and one-third spoke Swahili as their lingua franca.
As a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS) or Mormon in Santiago, Chile, who first encountered the Church in July 1990, I can say that in the last 20 years, there has been a decline in baptisms, more than 100 chapels reused, sold, or empty, more than 20 stakes reduced, low attendance at Sunday meetings, little participation in the Santiago Temple, and little or no progress in family history within the stakes. Despite all this, things are a little better than before; at least some stakes that were lost have been reestablished.
I love the country-by-country analyses of the growth and stagnation of our church. In Africa, not only is our church growing, but it's a shame to see that the leadership in Chile lacks faith, discernment, and commitment.
As a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS) or Mormon in Santiago, Chile, who first encountered the Church in July 1990, I can say that in the last 20 years, there has been a decline in baptisms, more than 100 chapels reused, sold, or empty, more than 20 stakes reduced, low attendance at Sunday meetings, little participation in the Santiago Temple, and little or no progress in family history within the stakes. Despite all this, things are a little better than before; at least some stakes that were lost have been reestablished.
I love the country-by-country analyses of the growth and stagnation of our church. In Africa, not only is our church growing, but it's a shame to see that the leadership in Chile lacks faith, discernment, and commitment.
I've listened to Jeff and think his heart is in the right place and has done a lot of good work. As with any study, it deserves some caveats. As Caleb mentions, one of those is that of sample selection. It's just really hard to get a representative sample of all Mormons. I would say his conclusions about those who have left the church are spot-on. We just have to accept that the population his data speak to are U.S.-centric Mormons who are on social media. I would recommend reading the work of Jana Reiss. She has written an article or two comparing her sociological findings to those of Jeff Strong and highlights where they are similar/different and the likely reasons why.
As for Richard "Papa" Ostler, the guy is a wonderful Christlike person and despite not being ordained, he has proven himself to be prophetic in many ways in the more literal non-ceremonial sense. There are plenty of these characters in today's world who I think are modern-day Samuel the Lamanites: Ostler, Julie Hanks, Benjamin Park, Matthew L. Harris, the Widow's Mite Report, Todd M. Compton, Sam Young, Carol Lynn Pearson, Sam . Some of them move on from their role or even move on from the church but they have left an imprint on the church that undoubtedly has affected policies and teachings in a good way. We claim that God works in mysterious ways, and we should accept that this means that perhaps God uses people in ways we would never expect, and even that God may not desire everyone in this life to be orthodox Mormon.
This is a good perspective to have, on both ends of things. It's very likely IMO that African nations right now are on the early-stage point of the growth curve and will face headwinds just like Chile, Brazil, and Mexico have faced as those countries settled into a more mature growth phase. I do hope that the church learned its lesson about developing sustainable, retention-focused growth from the mistakes that have been made in some of these other countries. I have spoken with MTC directors and mission presidents in Africa and I do worry that the "baptize anyone and everyone at any cost" approach in Africa is alive and well. That kind of "throw spaghetti on the wall and see what sticks" approach can lead to higher numbers of members in the long run but it also leads to a huge number of members of record that would never describe themselves as members. Perhaps cultural differences in these areas will result in different outcomes, though.
Matt, can you elaborate on the last two columns of estimates of activity (2013)? How were those calculated? I apologize if I missed a formula or anything, I'm just curious because I know you've put a lot of thought into these things. Would love to know how it was calculated for 2013 and whether you would apply a similar formula to estimate active membership in 2026.
James, calling people who have actively left and criticize the Church as modern-day Samuel the Lamanites is disingenuous at best and actively harmful and deceptive at worst. Hanks, Park, Sam Young, the Widow's Mite, etc are people and organizations that are not faithful to the Church's doctrines and mission. We should not be comparing them to a faithful prophet. They are not. In my opinion, some of them, particularly Hanks and Park, are also just so wrapped up in their own social media following and their own image and prestige that they aren't people one should look up to, regardless of their beliefs concerning the Church.
I am somewhat skeptical of Strong’s conclusions and many of the other figures mentioned here. One major issue is methodology. Most of these individuals do not appear to have formal backgrounds in survey research, statistics, or representative sampling methods, and much of the data collection comes from online communities that are already highly self-selecting. That does not mean their observations are worthless, but it does mean we should be cautious about generalizing their conclusions to the broader Church population.
I also think there is an important distinction between listening compassionately to individuals who struggle with faith and assuming that the experiences of highly online ex-member communities are representative of most Latter-day Saints. Those are very different populations. People who spend large amounts of time discussing religion online—whether active or former members—are often not representative of the average member in the pews.
Another issue is that retrospective narratives about leaving the Church are often more complex than they initially appear. In many cases, people describe doctrinal or Church history concerns as the primary reason for leaving, but longitudinal research in psychology and sociology often shows that major life stressors, interpersonal conflicts, unmet expectations, social dynamics, or shifts in identity and values also play a substantial role. People naturally reinterpret their experiences over time into narratives that feel coherent and meaningful. Same thing happens with converts who join the Church too.
I also do not think the claim that one-third of active members do not believe the Church’s teachings is supported by the more rigorous research currently available. There are certainly nuanced levels of belief, commitment, and orthodoxy among active members, but online survey samples drawn heavily from social media communities are not sufficient to make broad conclusions about the global Church.
Just adding in that so far, the number of members/church unit ratio is much lower in many African countries than in many South American countries. Church attendance requirements are higher today than they were when the mentioned countries first faced the mentioned activity problems.
Finally, there is emerging an increased focused within the missionary department on church attendance taking a primary role in missionary efforts. Heres's a quote from Elder Bassett's final talk before he passed.
"Elder Bassett cited research suggesting that an individual is much more likely to be baptized if they attend sacrament meeting during the first week they meet missionaries."
“Something happens, and the quicker that can happen to an individual, the more likely they are to enter this gate and covenant path, which leads to eternal life,” he said.
https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/elder-bassett-invites-missionaries-to-teach-doctrine-of-christ
I appreciate Matt's response very much. I agree with it 100%. It's also very well written and I can tell is very well informed. It also matches my experience and observations as well as my understanding of statistics. I'm saving his response for future reference. Over the years I have given alot of thought to the points Matt has addressed, and I continue to be hopeful that we as a Church can do better to reduce the number of people becoming disaffected due concerns that can be easily addressed. To me it seems like it is often alot easier to keep people in the Church rather than try to get them back. People leave for lots of reasons that could often be avoided, and are (in my opinion) largely preventable.
Junior Bonza, the incoming mission president of the DR Congo Kinshasa North Mission, was the narrator on a series of vides entitled "Not by Bread Alone" on the history of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Africa. The second one, after the intro video, included footage of him, his parents and his brother singing a series of hymns. They sang in Lingaka, Swahili and French. Maybe even Kongo and Lubu. Their multi-linguslism is different than what I as an American expect.
My very limited general sense is that having the scriptures and hymns and especially the endowment and other temple ceremonies in a lot of languages is very helpful. Having congregations in multiple languages is not nearly as pressing or useful in some cases.
This is one if the huge benefits of the unified hymnbook. There are in vatmrious places congregations that do mylti-lingual singing. Having all hymns in all books with the sane numbers make things much easier.
I do hope to see the Book of Mormon and tiger materials in Kongo soon. With the growth of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Boma and other places in the far west of DR Congo this is almost sure to occur soon.
The "Ilorin Nigeria District (2119439)", organized in 2018, in the Nigeria Ibadan Mission (2012936), has recently been renamed the "Ogbomosho Nigeria District (2119439)". Unknown date of name change. It was still listed last week as Ilorin on the Meetinghouse maps. Possibly changed this last sunday May 10th?
https://maps.churchofjesuschrist.org/missions/2012936
Ogbomosho Nigeria District | Meetinghouse Locator
https://maps.churchofjesuschrist.org/stakes/2119439
Aba Nigeria Temple District | ChurchofJesusChristTemples.org
https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/aba-nigeria-temple/district/
@Michael. I think I am worried about two questions unanswered by that statistic:
1. Are people who attend church within the first week more likley to be baptized because they attended church, or because they like to do what the missionaries invite them to do? (This being a problem when missionaries are transfered)
2. Does the fact that they are more likley to be baptized mean that they are also more likley to become covenant keeping church members after baptism? At first yes, but I do wonder what the attendance characteristics of retained conversts look like (there, a first-week attendance may be less important)
It is good to note that those who attend church early end up being baptized, it is also good to note that, for church growth and continued conversion, church attendance must lead to becoming friends with members. Our mission here in the US claims that (2) sacrament attendance fulfills the "several" requirement. We barely get to meet the people being taught (unless we interrupt the missionaries in their conversations with them) before they get baptized and then go inactive. Whether that happens in 2 weeks after the first contact or 4 makes little difference to me.
I wish we had some of the higher baptismal requirements (especially those aimed at future temple attendance and "a friend in the church") implemented across the world. I would love to have the chance to get to meet the people more than once and help them live the gospel.
@spencer Elder Cook visited our stake and discussed a story about a young same-sex attracted youth. A couple days after telling his parents that he was gay, who then told the Bishop, the youth was taken to the church's back parking lot and beat to a pulp by the other young men, with the young men's advisor watching. Having left the church and lived a gay life, dying of AIDS, he requested a visit from his then stake president, Elder Cook.
Who was wayward?
We need to take more care in eliminating pride on the basis of church membership. Others haven't joined the church because they have had less chances to join than us, or because we have failed to teach the gospel clearly and unpolluted. Some leave the church because they make mistakes or get distracted, or all the other things Matt mentioned. If they understood the gospel better, if we taught it to them in word and deed, they maybe wouldn't.
Of course, we cannot be perfect in our teaching, but if we belive in our doctrine we will strive for just that. We must all be careful when using the token of sitting in the pew as a proxy for "good". We have good reason to think harder and change what we do and pray our friends and children come back.
I also agree with what Matt has said. Sampling bias is a real issue although, being completely honest, I am not sure how exactly it could be alleviated (even with a doctoral-level education, this is a tough nut to crack for me). For better or for worse, it's safe to assume that the majority of people who leave the Church never publish their intents online and would therefore be very hard to identify. Most simply fade out and don't come back, but they do so quietly and they would not get sampled here.
I could talk about my own story of leaving the Church here but I'll instead talk about something else I no longer do to perhaps illustrate a point (and make it more understandable for those on this forum who have never not been inactive/not in the Church before).
For most of my youth I was very involved in road cycling, and the coach of my team gave me some hope that I could one day become a professional (think being a water carrier in the Tour de France). I trained almost every day, was really watching my diet more than most youths would, and participated in (and occasionally won) races at the regional level. Cycling was a big part of my life and identity. Sometime around 16 or 17, it became more of a chore. My interests gradually shifted, and with that, I got less competitive. Around that time I quit and also gave up on my pro aspirations. I didn't have any hatred for cycling or regrets having spent so much time on it. I didn't join any angry ex-cyclist forums on the internet. I didn't try to run cyclists off the road with my car. I just acknowledged for myself that interests and life priorities had changed and lived with the consequences. Today I'm fat and don't even own a bike anymore. If there was a scientist trying to sample ex-cyclists based on online evidence, they would probably not consider me to be part of that population.
The parallels with how I see the Church today are actually very striking. I appreciate what it has taught me and I wish it well (and I'm still pretty geeky about Church growth) but I have simply found out that there is a family life standard in the Church that I am unable to comply with, so we have - in a sense - amicably split up. There are things I have found out since then that have confirmed and encouraged me in this decision but what the Church expects and teaches about families is really at the core of why I'm no longer active. Mr. Strong would, however, probably never come around to sampling me because my public footprint in the online "ex-Mormon" universe really doesn't exist. And there are millions of others like me, with a plethora of reasons (or sometimes no reason at all besides "growing out of it") to no longer be active or affiliated with the Church.
Not sure if these ramblings make sense or contribute all that much. But population-wise, those who are no longer active at Church are likely very heterogenous and difficult to capture in a representative way. That's my TL;DR here ;-)
The "Kasungu Malawi District (2290146)" of the Zambia Lusaka Mission just had a confernence this weekend May 9th-10th. It organized the 7th and 8th Branches of the District. The Kasungu 3rd and 4th branches got renamed in process.
Does anyone know if it was upgraded to Stake level?
https://maps.churchofjesuschrist.org/stakes/2290146
167 May 13, 2026 Katema Branch
168 May 13, 2026 Mwalawanyenje Branch
Kasungu 4th Branch (2306999) - > Chithiba Branch (2306999)
Kasungu 3rd Branch (2307006) - > Four Ways Branch (2307006)
The "Kinshasa Democratic Republic of the Congo Mont Amba Stake" has been organized last sunday from the "Kinshasa Democratic Republic of the Congo Ngaba Stake"
https://maps.churchofjesuschrist.org/stakes/2329743
Chris, I searched for Kasungu Malawi on the meetinghouse locator, which led me to the meetinghouse for the first and second branches in that district. Based on that, I'd say either the district wasn't updated or that the unit updates have not yet been reflected on the meetinghouse locator website.
This was discussed here earlier and I think it is a good opportunity to bring it up again. My expectation is that the DRC surpasses 100 stakes sometime in 2028. Existing stakes do not have to split outright, so their number of units in them can be illusive. I would expect that in metro areas with multiple stakes, most new ones will come out of realignments.
A new temple announced in Otavalo, Ecuador.
The Otavalo Ecusador Temple was just announced at a devotional where Elder Renlund was present. The announcement was actually read by Elder Villar the South America Northwest area president.
@Hank the people that abused the gay person were not living the commandments to live there neighbor. President Hinckley had some tough words on opposition to same gender marriage, but said opposition does not justify hatred of those with this tendencies.
They may need to have there membership withdrawn, but in those cases leaders show an increase of love and help them forsake their sins so they can repent.
Matt Harris is liberal upset more people agree with Ezra Taft Benson than him politically. And I don’t think President Kimball’s sent Mark E. Petersen on assignment to get unity, since the President of the twelve makes assignments months in advance. Elder Petersen and Stapley in the hospital would not of opposed it had they been present and approved it later on.
Reis thinking she knows better how to spend the Lord’s money than the lord.
Some of the aforementioned people are no longer members of the church. What can we learn from them we can’t from people called and known to the church. Elder Renlunds talk on lanes good one.
Hiram Page, Mrs Hubble and others thought they received revelation didn’t though. Doctrine and Covenants 42:11 and other scriptures makes it clear people the lord uses will come in at the gate.
I have yet to read David Ostlers books on bridges. Wont buy them off Deseret book or amazon may read them for free if available on bookshelf or archive, Papas 1sr book mostly about lbgtq issues two others his version of what he wants LDS culture to be.
Charity doesn’t rejoice in iniquity, Richard and David Ostler and Jeff Strong not best way to deal with less active members or those that leave I think. Shouldn’t be disrespectful to family members that leave, but don’t those who stay on the covenant path want that for there family members, and in kind and loving way invite them on that path?
There have been quite a few comments on here lately about people who stop attending church meetings. And it’s been agreed that their reasons in doing so are many. Without getting into specifics, because it was the most sacred experience in my life , and too sacred to talk very much in detail about, I had a dream on Easter Sunday of this year in which I saw and heard a message that blew my mind. In my dream, a group of friends and their spouses, and I were casually talking, and the Savior appeared unto us, and he begged us to help Him do His work because He couldn’t do it alone. He explained that He and the Father knew how difficult it would be to live by faith and therefore They needed us to help him do Their work. Then the Father appeared alongside Jesus and said the same thing. Because They love us, They gave us this opportunity to grow and develop, but They knew that living by faith would be extremely challenging and that no one could do it alone, and that we all needed each other. They begged us in our group to help Them accomplish that task and to bring as many as would back to the Father. I remember in that dream I could feel the awesome love that the Savior had for the Father and I could understand so deeply that Jehovah never wanted to do anything that would disgrace nor disappoint the Father or destroy the Father‘s plan for His children. And They begged us on several occasions to help Them do Their work. It was an awesome dream….Then over the last few nights, I’ve been reading in the Old Testament about Israel and his sons and how foolish the sons were in selling Joseph into Egypt. Here was the covenant family of the Lord, the covenant family, and yet how absolutely wicked and foolish most of those brothers were that because of jealousy they would take and get rid of Joseph, or so they thought, by selling him to the merchants who took him down into Egypt. Reuben wasn’t there at the time it happened, and the scriptures say that he was upset at what his foolish brothers had done. Maybe Reuben could’ have stopped it, but
he wasn’t there to stop it. How many Reuben’s are there in the church that could maybe stop people from leaving, but they’re not there at the time when certain of our church members are driven out because of comments that are made by other people or because of lack of concern, or other misunderstandings. Joseph’s brothers did not know how much they needed him, and he didn’t know how much he needed them, until many years later. For a good reading, an absolute, awesome, spiritual experience, after reading this message go and read it again…the story of Joseph being sold into Egypt and how it parallels a lot with what happens in the church. Truly, we are our brothers keeper and we need to unincumber ourselves with being so involved in things of the world that we lose track of that which is really important— being our brother’s keeper. Sorry that this is so long, but this has been on my heart since that dream and it was so overwhelming. I needed to share it. Nobody can reach everybody, but everybody can reach somebody
Pascal, thank you for your strong(pun intended) comments. Most of the people I have seen leave the church in the US and overseas since my baptism in California as a university student in 1973, have been adult converts to the church. I have been through exercises in wards in New Jersey, Toledo, Cincinnati, and Minneapolis in the United States where the majority of the members are converts to the church, where as a member of ward councils we have collectively worked on "cleaning the records." These exercises show that many of the people, a majority in each of these urban wards are converts (60-90%). Though not a statistical analysis, a majority of people not coming to church stopped coming within a year of baptism. They do not identify as members of the church. They have generally not been acquainted long enough to come up with the reasons for leaving that Strong, Ostlers, and other interview are a part of their sample. They don't see themselves as Mormons or ex-Mormons, they got baptized for a variety of reasons and stop coming after a few weeks or months. When you go around the table at ward council many of these people are not known, don't want to be known, and don't want to be visited. Many in these urban areas, with high populations of renters, wards have half the people move out of the ward within a year of baptism.
In addition, in these wards much of the population are people of color and in some there are immigrants from all over the world. These are probably another sample that is not taken into account of the world-wide LDS population. There is a question that comes from this: does the diversity of these wards contribute to the high level or higher levels of disaffection to their new religion, than wards that are more culturally, linguistically, and racial diverse? I don't know the answer. It would be good to know. And from that, another question: what can be done in these very diverse church units of the church to create a ward that is more like Zion?
When you start looking at absolute numbers, these groups may be much larger in absolute numbers, than people who leave the church, who identify as Mormons or ex-members of the church. Because the do not do samples of "representative populations" all of their data is suspect. Much less able to do the kind of comparative work I am talking about.
It has previously been mentioned that the samples are skewed by self-selective groups, which any fundamental course on surveys, statistics, or other methodology problems at Matt states so well, would weed out or at least mitigate as a problem.
There are two US wards in Kansas City and Seattle in the US that are more suburban wards that I lived in. In these ward only 20% at most of the ward membership were adult converts to the church. The people who left in these wards were still disproportionately converts to the church and people of color in overwhelming white wards. Because of the relative size in the ward membership they were about half the people in the church who did not come. The others were long time members who identified a Mormons where the result of the Strong, et.al, resultant research conclusions is more plausible, even with methodology that is problematic.
Now let's go to my experience in mostly branches in Beijing, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Mexico City, Riyadh, Rome, Jeddah, and Tel Aviv the last 20 something years, that I have been a member of. These are smaller numbers, they are mostly members from other countries, and they vary in the number of adult converts as a percentage of overall membership. For example in Hong Kong, the branch(English speaking) had 300 people in a weekly sacrament meeting, but very few converts and also hardly any Mormons who were not active. On the other end of the spectrum the 20-25 people in the branch in Jeddah had no inactive Church members that we knew of in our branch, but 30% were adult converts, including myself as branch president.
In these branches, except Rome and Mexico City, which were wards, most of the members were expatriates, nationalities from other than where the church unit was located; and Mexico City which was 80% Mexican nationals. All except Rome, Mexico City, and Hong Kong locations, proselytizing was prohibited. This prohibition on proselytizing reduces the adult converts to a very small number, but because the member population of self-selection and various demographic variables their were very few people who had left the church in these branches.
This is another type of ward or branch that is thought of much in terms of people leaving the church. Mexico City ward and wards of Latin America and why people have stopped coming, is probably more similar to what I have run across in my wards in the United States, where people do not come to church long enough to identify as a member of their new church. In this ward I was only there for three months and not part of leadership, but know that about 15-20% of the ward was active.
Deseret News has published an interview with Jeff Strong about his book. From what the article says, it appears to me that he is a devout member who wants to understand why people leave, with the intent of trying to reduce the number so departing. (For those expressing concern about his methodology, he acknowledges those concerns in the interview but says he still thinks there are valuable insights from his survey.)
https://www.deseret.com/faith/2026/05/23/jeff-strong-latter-day-saint-faith-survey-research-religious-disaffiliation/
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