This afternoon, the Church reported its Annual statistical report as of December 31st, 2023.
- Membership: 17,255,394 (increase of 252,933 from 2022; a 1.49% annual increase)
- Congregations: 31,490 (increase of 160 from 2022; a 0.51% annual increase)
- Stakes: 3,565 (increase of 44 from 2022; a 1.25% annual increase)
- Districts: 489 (decrease of 28 from 2022; a 5.41% annual decrease)
- Missions: 414 (increase of 3 from 2022; a 0.73% annual increase)
- Convert Baptisms: 251,763 (increase of 39,591 from 2022; an 18.6% annual increase)
- Increase of Children on Record: 93,594 (increase of 4,535 from 2022; a 5.09% annual increase)
- Full-time Teaching Missionaries: 67,871 (increase of 5,327 from 2022; an 8.52% annual increase)
- Senior Service Missionaries: 27,801 (increase of 731 from 2022; a 2.70% annual increase)
- Young Service Missionaries: 3,884 (increase of 1,148 from 2022; a 42.0% annual increase)
Several observations regarding the 2023 Statistical Report:
First, annual membership increased by the highest rate since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, at 1.49% (membership increased by 1.54% in 2019). Moreover, the annual rate of membership growth was also greater than for each of the two years prior 2019 (1.48% in 2017, 1.21% in 2018). The summation of new children of record and converts baptized in 2023 was 345,357 - the highest number since 2016. The difference between the summation of new children of record and converts baptized and the actual increase in church membership for 2023 was 92,424 - the lowest number since 2019. Thus, the number of members removed from Church records due to death, resignation, excommunication (loss of membership), or children not being baptized by age 9 was less than for each of the last several years, and this number ranked near all-time lows within the past decade (which has ranged from approximately 92,000 to 140,000).
Second, there was a significant increase in the number of converts baptized in 2023 - the highest number seen since 2015. The percentage increase in new converts baptized in 2023 versus 2022 was 18.6%. Teaching missionaries are baptizing a larger number of converts per missionary now, as the number of teaching missionaries serving increased by only 8.52%. Although this is a positive development for what has been seen within the past decade for convert baptism trends, these numbers remain tens of thousands below the all-time highs of convert baptisms reached in the late 1980s and the 1990s when there were several years of more than 300,000 converts baptized (1990 was the year with the all-time high of 330,877 converts baptized). Nevertheless, it is also important to note that these record years of the most converts baptized had a preponderance of converts baptized with minimal teaching and preparation with high rates of attrition immediately after baptism. Convert retention rates are significantly higher now compared to what they were during these years of the highest numbers of converts baptized.
Third, there was a notable increase (5.09%) in the number of new children added to Church records in 2023 (93,594) compared to 2022 (89,059). This statistic measures the number of unbaptized children, usually infants, who are added to Church records, often after they are blessed and given a name. The number of new children added to Church records in 2023 was the highest reported since 2019 when there was an increase of 94,266 children added to Church records. The Church has struggled for decades to augment the number of children born in the Church and added to the records. The Church reached its all-time high for the most new children of record added more than 40 years ago back in 1982 at 124,000. This is a sobering trend reflecting not only the dramatically decreasing size of Latter-day Saint families in the United States and other developed countries (as well as issues with divorce and young adults not marrying), but it also shows that the Church has struggled to establish full-member families in countries with the highest membership growth rates that often have much higher fertility rates than the United States and other developed nations (such as in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and the Philippines).
Fourth, the number of full-time missionaries serving has continued to significantly increase, including for both teaching missionaries and service missionaries. The number of teaching missionaries serving in 2023 was the highest it has ever been in the Church when the four-year period of the "double cohort" is excluded (as these years included many more members serving missions because of the lowering of the minimum age for missionary service by one year for men and two years for women). The average number of converts baptized per missionary also increased in 2023 to 3.71 - tying with the year 2019 as the year with the most converts baptized per missionary since 2012 (the lowering of the minimum age for missionary service decreased the average number of converts baptized per missionary per year from approximately 5.0 to 3.5). The number of young service missionaries increased by nearly 50% in 2023, albeit these young service missionaries remain a small group (3,884) compared to teaching missionaries (67,871) or senior service missionaries (27,801).
Fifth, the Church reported its most significant percentage decrease in the number of districts (-5.42%) since it began to report the number of districts in the worldwide Church in 1981, and the net decrease in the number of districts for 2023 tied with 1996 as the year with the greatest numerical decrease in the number of districts ever reported (-28). The Church has reported a net decline in the number of districts year over year since 2009. Thus, the number of districts has decreased from 622 as of year-end 2008 to 489 as of year-end 2023. The Church has gone through varying trends with district growth that have corresponded with periods of expansion into previously unreached or lesser-reached areas of the Church, with a period of significant growth from 1987-1994 (expansion in Latin America, the Philippines, and Eastern Europe), a period of decline from 1995 to 2001 (districts maturing into stakes, district consolidations to prepare for stakes), and a period of general stagnation from 2002 to the late 2000s. The significant net decrease in the number of districts in 2023 appeared attributed to consolidating small districts into neighboring stakes or districts, districts maturing into stakes, and few new districts created during the year.
Sixth, the net increase in the number of stakes created in 2023 (44) was the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic, and the net increase in the number of stakes was comparable to 2018 (42) and 2019 (54), albeit the number of stakes discontinued in 2023 (16) was the highest reported since the early 2000s when dozens of stakes were discontinued in Latin America and the Philippines. Eleven (11) of the 16 discontinued stakes in 2023 were in the United States - a country that has typically had few stakes discontinued year to year (usually less than five a year). However, it is important to note that many of these areas with discontinued stakes have for years experienced a decline due to active members moving away with few active members to replace them.
Seventh, the number of official congregations (i.e., wards and branches) in the Church significantly increased in 2023 when compared to 2022. However, the net increase in the number of official congregations remains approximately half of what was seen at pre-COVID-19 levels. The number of new congregations created in 2023 was less than what was generally seen prior to 2020 for Sub-Saharan Africa which was a major source of new congregations created in the 2010s. Some countries had some significant improvements with net increases in new congregations, such as in Latin America, whereas countries like the United States continue to lag behind what has historically been seen for the rate of new congregations being created.
Trends in mission growth were unremarkable for 2023. However, it is important to note that the Church plans to organize 36 new missions in mid-2024, which would result in 2024 being the year with the second most missions ever created only after 2013 when 58 new missions were created.
It's great to see that Church growth is generally back to where it was before the pandemic.
ReplyDeleteIt's always a pleasure to see real-time (or so) growth of the church. :)
ReplyDeleteI think the baptisms per missionary is an extremely important statistic that I am grateful to see is improving. It shows that missionaries are being assigned to more receptive areas and their efforts are more effective. Here are the numbers going back to 2013:
ReplyDelete2023: 3.71
2022: 3.39
2021: 3.09
2020: 2.43
2019: 3.71
2018: 3.60
2017: 3.49
2016: 3.38
2015: 3.47
2014: 3.49
2013: 3.41
Overall it seems like 2023 is most comparable to 2019 in terms of most numbers (except congregation growth), showing that we are back on track to things pre-Covid. Thanks for the analysis Matt!
Isn't the baptisms per missionary statistic a bit flawed when you consider that it typically takes two missionaries (a companionship) to teach one person?
DeleteThese numbers are very encouraging. Year to year 18% increase in the number of convert baptisms is huge.
ReplyDeleteAll the more so, because I think in both 2021 and even 2022 you get some Covid-depayed children of record baptisms that turn into convert baptisms that would not have Bern otherwise. Any child baptized on or after their 9ymth birthday counts as a convert baptism, no matter what. Under normal circumstances most such children come from at best marginally active families. However Xovid policies created all sorts of other reasons from the delay. Mozambique literally banned baptisms from March 2020 until April 2022. So there are "convert" baptisms in 2022 that are really children of record baptisms. I am pretty sure by 2023 we are back to normal conditions, but this means that the growth is convert baptisms in reality is a bit more than it looks like. Probably not majorly so, but somewhat.
The 11 new general authorities are 3 from the US, 2 from Mexico and 1 each from Chile, Brazil, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Nigeria and Ivory Coast. The one from Ivory Coast is the only one who is either the first called from the country or the only man from that country who is a current general authority.
ReplyDeleteThe general authority from Ivory Coast was born in Gagnoa and now lives in Abijan. He seems to have worked at times in Nigeria and maybe also Cameroon.
Elder Arnold Cavalcante from Brazil has a very moving story of going on a mission with total faith as the sole provider for his younger siblings told by Elder Andersen some years ago.
Elder Vargas has among other degrees a certificate from BYU Pathway International. The general authority from Mexical, Mexico got an engineering degree in 2023, unless that was a typo. He was a temple engineer, maybe at Tijuana Temple, and now is higher up in facilities maintenance.
I am very excited about Elder Dube's call as a member of the Presidency of the 70. He is the first black general authority to hold that level of calling.
I think we now have an even 10 black leaders among the general leaders of the Church, Sister Browning, Elder Dube, Elder Johnson, Elder Mutombo, the 2 from Nigeria, 1 from Ivory Coast, Elder Silva, Elder Corbitt and Elder Kyungu. It is 12 if we count the past ones, the late Elder Martins and the emeritized Elder Sitati.
Elder Casillas, from Mexicali mentioned above,has as his current title area temple facilities manager. I would have thought that would be done from the area office, but that seems hard living in Mexicali with the area odmffice in Mexico City. Enough of the job may be traveling or remote meetings with the various temple engineers and their staffs on the one hand, or sending in reports or otherwise meeting with the temple department in Salt Lake on the other, that it really does not matter where you live, so thry allowed him to stay in Mexicali.
ReplyDeleteJPL,
ReplyDeleteYou've forgotten Elder Morrison from Ghana.
Elder Johnson would have been emeritized anyway, so his call as Sunday School general president us quite interesting. He worked in the Church Educational System before he became a general authority. Brother Webb is administrator of seminaries and institutes. Brother Reid was a pro football player and seems to never have had a Sunday School calling. He was a counselor in the Tongan Stake Presidency in Utah County before becoming a mission president in Australia. He is a native of American Samoa, and ethnically Samoan at least on his mother's side. I think he is the first Polynesian to serve as a general officer of the Church.
ReplyDeleteHow did I forget Elder Morrison from Ghana? He remains the youngest general authority. I thought we might get one born in the 1980s, but I guess that will wait at least until 1985.
ReplyDeleteIt appears that a lot of newborns are not being reported to to the Church. The numbers would seems to indicate a birthrate of 5.4 births per 1000 members, while the worldwide average (in 2021) was 18.1 births per 1000 inhabitants. It the Church membership birthrate that much lower than the rest of the world, or is the Church only getting reports of births from active members? If the latter, doesn't that mean that another 200,000+ babies are being born to inactive members and not being reported to the Church?
ReplyDeleteIt is almost certainly on the Order of the latter. I am not sure that any of my grandchildren ever were officially registered on church records before baptism. Despite this the two who have been baptized were baptized as children of record, even though there was no record, not as Converts. On the other hand I think I once saw a blessing done for 18 month old children. Their mother had only recently been baptized, their father had been a member much longer.
ReplyDeleteDoing some random analysis on the updated General Authority Seventy's. I got the place of birth for each GA 70 from the Church Newsroom (which definitely isn't the best indicator of where someone is "from", but it is available for all as opposed to where they spent the majority of their life), and the Church membership for each of those locations to compare which areas of the Church have the highest and lowest relative representation in the Q70 (I broke out US states as opposed to lumping them together, as is done in the Church Newsroom). I use the term "GA representation" to just mean a GA 70 that was born in the location.
ReplyDeleteOverall, GA 70's represent areas that comprise 74.7% of Church membership as of YE 2023 (12,707,838 nominal members). In terms of raw numbers, Utah (23), California (7), Brazil (7), Chile (5), Mexico (5), the UK (3), Washington (3), Arizona (3), Idaho (3), and Argentina (3), Puerto Rico (2), Hong Kong (2), Germany (2), Korea (2), DRC (2), Nigeria (2), and the Philippines (2) all had more than 1 member of the 70. Collectively those areas comprised 57% of Church membership, while comprising 73.8% of the 70.
The most overrepresented location was Washington D.C., with 1 member of the 70 being born there (.97% of GA 70s), and only .02% of Church membership residing in that area. The least represented area (that has a GA 70) is Peru, comprising only .97% of GA 70's while containing 3.71% of Church membership. Venezuela, Canada, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, Mexico, the Philippines, and Peru were the countries with GA 70 representation that were underrepresented compared to the percentage of total membership (totaling 5,342,112 members or 31.4% of nominal Church membership). Puerto Rico and Hong Kong were the areas with 2 GA 70's that were the most overrepresented (1.94% of GA 70's and .14% of Church membership respectively). U.S. GA's comprised 46.6% of all GA 70's.
Texas is the US state with the largest Church population that does not have GA representation. I believe Ecuador is the country with the largest Church population that does not have GA representation, but am happy to stand corrected.
With US states I think what we would want to measure is not place of birth but where they were raised. Elder Daines was born in Indiana, but lived in Provo from when he was about 1. His parents were also not in any way from Indiana. I would also have included 1st Presidency, 12, and presiding bishopric.
ReplyDeleteIncluding the 15 general officers might be helpful, bur since they are not drawn from the whole Church structurally, that might lead to oddities. Although not as much as you might think.
Sister Dennis was born in Provo, but raised until at least 10 I believe almost completely in Natchez, Mississippi, or at least in the Natchez ward/branch, I think thry lived deep in the country. Sister Broening was born in New Rochelle, but mainly raised in Jamaica.
There is an argument to be made for paying attention to where people lived as adults. Elder Buckner coming from New York has some meaning, but he is still a Utah born person who came to be a law professor. On the other hand our one person. Accredited to New York is Peter Johnson, who was never a Church member in New York.
California gorges to 9 with the 12, Utah to I think 30 with the 12 and first Presidency, maybe higher with the presiding bishopric.
On the other hand there are 2 general authorities who served together in a New Jersey stake Presidency, and neither is the one New Jersey born person, President Eyring.
I think though logistically we should group the whole US together, because movement is very high within the US. Those 9 from California exclude several who spent basically their whole adult lives there, and include Elders Gong and Bednar who spent their adult lives everywhere else.
Definitely agree with where people were raised being a better measure of where they are "from." I don't think that info is easily accessible (if it exists), but it would be much more interesting. And even moreso if there was a way to determine where individuals spent most of their adult life too. My initial analysis is very crude and doesn't mean much of anything, but I have appreciated the number of GA 70s that are being called from the Global Church and figured it would be fun to quantify that.
DeleteThe Mexico count is too low because of an oddity. Elder Montoya was born in Fresno, California, but he was living in Caborca by his first birthday. He lived there and in Hermosillo his entire life until his call as a general authority, except his mission. His placement in California just because he was physically there when born makes no sense. I am thinking you also included Elder Ochoa who was just emeritized. His story is a little more complex, but he was also raised almost completely in Mexico. He lived most of his adult life there as well. He moved to the US at some point, but that was to Utah.
ReplyDeleteElder Daines in the other hand has lived almost all of his adult life in California. However I can see strong arguments to base this on where people were raised, not their adult life. Even though he moved to New Jersey at age 18, Elder Corbitt's connection to Pennsylvania is real.
Come to think of it it is probably best to not put in the 12. Af least Elder Uchtdorf could mess stats. He belongs to Germany, was born a Gean citizen maybe even in an area in 1940 in Germany, but where he was born is now the Czech Republic.
Sister Apanaus would send Argentina to 4.
I know this is coming very late, but I finally decided on my predictions for new Temples. Here are the twenty places I think most likely to get their own new House of the Lord:
ReplyDeleteNampa, Idaho
Lehi, Utah
Spanish Fork, Utah
Houston South, Texas
Cincinnati, Ohio
Poza Rica, Mexico
Santa Ana, El Salvador
*Maracaibo, Venezuela
Quevedo, Equador
Osorno, Chile
Florianopolis/ Sao Jose, Brazil
Santa Maria, Brazil (or elsewhere in Rio Grande do Sul)
Rosario, Argentina
Neuquen, Argentina
Glasgow, United Kingdom
Yamoussoukro, Cote D'ivoire
Port Harcourt, Nigeria
Abuja, Nigeria
Kampala, Uganda
Angeles, Philippines
I also made 11 dark horse picks that I think we could see announced. I tried to narrow my list down to 10 but couldn't decide. They are:
Goodyear, Arizona
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Mobile, Alabama (or Pensacola, Florida)
Machala, Equador
Teresina, Brazil
Tacuarembo, Uruguay
Bristol/ Cardiff, United Kingdom
Tirana, Albania
Bo, Sierra Leone
Ibadan, Nigeria
Hobart, Australia
Teresina already got a temple annouce... Last abril...
DeleteGreg Stewart,
ReplyDeleteAlso consider location and other recording issues. Only a small fraction Africa and the Middle East are members and few members live in these areas compared to the rest of the body of the church. The rest of the world has stagnated and in many cases declining in population. Africa and the Middle East has by far the larges birthrate in the world. No other region of the world compares. Of course, as you mentioned children of less actives are generally not reported, but I also personally know of a few that attend regularly, I don't think has been blessed and therefore not on the local church roles.
JTB,
ReplyDeleteAt least on the country level for being raised, you can find it for all general authorities. I believe currently Elder Ochoa (who gets emeritus status in August) and Elder Montoya and the only ones where born and raised do not match of the 70. Actually Elder Sikehema, but he was partly raised in Tonga, spent 6 months in New Zealand, then came to Hawaii at about age 9, and I think moved to Arizona a few years later.
Elder Tai was also I believe partly raised in the US. In the 12 Elder Kearon and Elder Uchtdorf have confusing statuses. Sister Browning among the general officers
Aldo, I am not sure if Brother Reid was fully raised in American Samoa or partly lived in the US as a child. He has as an adult.
With adults we get some complex things. Argentina has also lived in the US, the Czech Republic, Oman and Peru.
I would Still count Elder Costa as an Argentine elsewhere, not as a Peruvian. So the Peru-Ecador-Bolivia area is probably for its size the most under represented area as concerns general authorities.
I think with part member families the children are much more likely to be baptized than blessed. Dome of those will be after their 9th birthday, but some at 8 and count as children of record baptisms.
ReplyDeleteMy wife, who is usually not very interested in this type of thing, made a temple prediction list - completely out of her own will and choice. I realize I never refined or posted mine. So here it is:
ReplyDeletePrice, Utah
Nampa, Idaho
Madison, Wisconsin
Jackson, Mississippi
Augusta, Maine
La Paz, Mexico
Sao Paulo, Brazil (2nd)
Osorno, Chile
Lome, Togo
Abuja, Nigeria
Lusaka, Zambia
Delhi, India
Majuro, Marshall Islands
Christchurch, New Zealand
Tirana, Albania
Dublin, Ireland
Wow, that was awful.
DeleteWhen the choir sang "His Eye is on the Sparrow" I thought "is this a preview of the new hymnbook". We shall see.
ReplyDeleteI very much liked President Oaks' talk. I was hoping his map had a sneak preview of temples to be announced later, but it looked like every dot was for something currently announced.
Did anyone else notice that President Oak's temple map was from Rick Satterfield's temple site? I thought that was a fun easter egg
ReplyDeleteYes, I thought the same, although I wasn't close enough to a device to immediately check and confirm. Perhaps the Church needs a new graphic designer so they can make their own maps? ;-)
ReplyDeleteI went to Rick's website to confirm but it looks like he took it down temporarily in lieu of letting it crash when it gets flooded when new temples are announced.
DeleteYes, he does that every conference Sunday
ReplyDeleteI can confirm that President Oaks used a map from Rick's website in his talk (the color scheme for the status of the various temples was a dead giveaway). Rick has refined his website for decades, and it is an excellent resource that is unmatched. I use it all the time whenever I need to get information about temples and the number of stakes and districts by country since he is great with keeping it current.
ReplyDeleteWatching the World Report, it really seems as though church leadership is making a concerted effort to minister to the Philippines. I would not be surprised to hear if more announcements for them
ReplyDeleteI am thinking theanilla Temple either has the most stakes per square foot, or the most except for Aba Nigeria. To be fair Urdeneta is about to help with that, and there are a lot more temples that will alienate use of Manilla in progress. Still I Steinway hope they break the record 11 temples planned with only 2 operating, if only for a few weeks.
ReplyDeleteManilla is also in a tie with I think only 2 others as the second longest to operate with no closing renovation. Los Angeles hold the record, but evidently has had major changes including I believe room reconfiguration without closing.
We did such at Detroit Temple. They added in walls even but did all the construction with endowed members so they did not close. Earlier they converted our entry way from an open porch to an enclosed room, but since that is all outside the recommend desk. It may have also been all temple recommend holding internal workers, but I do not think we had someone reviewing recommends on entry, but I am not sure. We did for the 2022 revisions.
I accidentally kicked myself out of the YouTube live platform I am using to watch. It says 87,000 are watching. There are also options direct on ChurchofJesusChrist.org, and BYU TV, and others, various cable and TV options. It is also between sessions, so I think that means 87,000 are live streaming the current 3:00 time frame content.
How many the 17 million members are inactive?
ReplyDeleteI would assume based on my experience and data that active, marginally attached, and fully inactive are all quite similar at around 5-6 million each.
DeleteExact activity numbers are obviously hard to come by and fluctuate all the time, but I've heard estimates of around 5.5 million active members that seem reasonable. That would be about 1500 active members per stake, which might be a tad high but would at least give an upper bound.
ReplyDeleteIf anyone has more exact numbers than that, I'd love to hear them.
For fully participating and attending (almost) weekly, this sounds accurate. So does the number of active members per stake, although quite a few members don't live in stakes. We're a pretty small stake by total membership and we have weekly attendance in the 1300-1500 range.
DeleteFloripa!
ReplyDeleteMaravilha !!!
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteWhat was awful? I was hoping for more temples in Africa, myself
ReplyDeleteBut the selection wasn't bad at all
ReplyDeleteI was responding to my own earlier predictions. I went 0/16...in general, I think this was a good list of new temples. With the times we live in, I assume it will get harder and harder to actually get these right.
ReplyDeleteAs Rick's map shows, Africa has a backlog at the moment. Hopefully the prayers of the saints will reduce that in time.
ReplyDeleteI predicted Rosario Argentina, Florianopolis Brazil, Lehi Utah, Cincinnati Ohio, Houston Texas South, and Chihuahua Mexico. How did everyone else do?
ReplyDelete@Religlang
DeleteOf my top choices, I got Scotland (my #1 pick), Florianópolis (#3), then farther down with Lehi and Rosario.
All the rest were in one form or another somewhere on my big list, except West Jordan, and Brisbane #2 was a vague possibility.
Kampala Uganda remains at the top of my list. However with 4 announced for the African continent last October, I am not too surprised none were announced this time, although I was hoping. The Philippines also did not have any announced. So we will not break any records of in planning again. Hopefully we can get at least one more in the fall. Peru also had no more announced.
ReplyDeleteIt still is a day of rejoicing. I will put up my rejoincing post in a moment.
I had only 2 out of my top 10 that were announced. However, all 15 announced temples were among the 208 locations on my temples prediction map (although a couple were within the same general metropolitan area but not the precise location, like Sao Jose instead of Florianopolis [essentially the same metropolitan area] and Cottonwood Heights instead of West Jordan [which is only 6 miles away])
ReplyDeleteWhat's funny is a temple 6 miles away doesn't preclude a future temple in Cottonwood Heights
DeleteNow that Des Moines Iowa is announced, only ten U.S. see states to go for all fifty to have at least one temple. Though one or two states such as New Jersey have temples just across the border in shared metropolitan areas.
ReplyDeleteOhio now has 3 temples in operation, planned or under construction. (Four of we count the recently required Kirtland Temple)
ReplyDeleteI got I think 10-11 right, but my list was above 70, so that is probably not a good indication.
ReplyDeleteThe days of rejoicing are here.
Des Monies, Iowa the Church may have purchased the land recently. My father was born in Ames, Iowa so this is truly a time of gladness.
Personally I hope Saints Vol. 4 has not gone to press. Cincinatti was the most covered location in the US in Saints Vol. 3, but the fully reasons why will not be evident until Vol. 4. Closing Vol. 4 with a temple announced at least in an afterward would be awesome.
My grandmother served much of her mission in Edinburgh. That city getting a temple would cause her much joy. She only had two people she taught on her mission get baptized, a mother and daughter. The daughter later married her brother, and would eventually serve as assistant to the matron in the Las Vegas Temple and has many faithful descendants. I had predicted Flasgow over Edinbugh.
Lehi, Utah was on my list. With that city exploding it makes sense. I was a little surprised by West Jordan. I would not be surprised if we see more Utah announcements in the fall.
Florianopolis Brazil was on my list. That was the only state in the southern coast of Brazil to not yet have at least one temple. How many stated does Brazil have, and how many have at least one temple announced.
Rosario Argentina was also on my list.
Maracaibo, Venezuela was on many lists, but the fact that it has been announced seems to indicate things are moving forward in Venezuela. We shall see how long it takes.
Utuaroa, French Polynesia I do not think made any lists. However I did see some with Bora Boea. Utuaroa is on Raieai, I think I buttered the spelling, 2 islans from Bora Bora, so it is that area.
I had Vuctoria, British Colombia on my list. President Nelson has now tied President Monson for Canaduan temples announced at 2. This is below President Hinckley's 5.
Yuma shocked me. I wonder if they will assign Mexicali there though. I had noticed you have a good number of stakes centered around there if you ignore the international boundary. I am not sure Joe easy it is yo ignore.
Chihuahua Mexico brings that state to 3 temples. With the Colonia Juarez and Ciudad Juarez Temples both in the north this was no surprise. Mexico needs more temples still, but 15 at once was a good number. It got us to an even 350. We will see what happens.
Houston Texas South I did not predict per season, but Suganlabd is basically that so it might count.
Honolulu was on my list. Lai'e is quite far from the city so I have expected this.
Brisbane South ends Australia as the country with the most temples none announced after President Hinckley. I believe all countries with more than 1 temple have at least 1 announced by President Nelson. New York is the only state with multiple temples with none announced by President Nelson.
True New Jersey has 2 temples just outside its border. So does Iowa.
ReplyDeleteNew Jersey may now be the state with the most members without a temple announced. I still think a temple somewhere in New Jersey is a high possibility for this year.
Prior to this we were at half the states having at least 2 temples and a third having at least 3 announced. We went over a third at 3 with Cincinatti. I think we are only at 9 at 4 or more temples, we would need to be at 13 to make a fourth at at least 4. It might be a bit until that is reached.
The largest area where President Nelson has not announced a temple in the US is the area north and east of Virginia and Pennsylvania. That has 60% of the states without temples. Maine is the only state without a temple in an adjacent state. Maine-Vermont and New Hampshire are the highest number of adjacent states without a temple, now that Iowa has one and breaks up the South Dakota-Iowa-Wisconsin block.
Wisconsin, Mississippi and either New Hampshire or Maine seem highly likely to get a temple soon as well. West Virginia seems a little unlikely. South Dakota is a fairly vague possibility. I would be shocked if we have a temple in all 50 states announced by 2030. In fact even by 2050 it would be a little surprising.
I almost think a temple announced for West Jordan makes me think one in Cottonwood Heights/Holliday is now more likely. If the 2 temples in South Jordan do not preclude one is West Jordan, I don't think Salt Lake, Draper and the 3 in the Jordans are enough to say Cottonwood Heights is unneeded.
ReplyDeleteOn Florianopolis they chose the name of the lead city. It might not end up in Florianopolis itself.
Olá irmão Matt!
ReplyDeleteGostaria de saber quantos membros o Brasil tem atualmente e desses quantos são considerados ativos?
Em torno de 1 milhão e meio de membros. Já o percentual de atividade fica entre 20 e 25 %%%. Mas isso é minha percepção, empiricamente observada.
DeleteJPL,
ReplyDeleteI was surprised by the West Jordan announcement. I don't think central West Jordan (WJ) will happen due to the airport there, so the question is wester WJ or eastern WJ. I still don't see one being announced for Cottonwood Heights, especially if the WJ temple is put in eastern part of WJ - at least not for a year after the SL temple has been dedicated. I could see some stakes in the Draper Temple being reassigned to Jordan River and maybe even WJ if it's put in eastern WJ. If the West Jordan temple is put in the western part of the WJ, I think a Herriman temple announcement will be pushed off until at least sometime next year.
Just wanted to point out that almost all the metrics used in this post were falling pre-COVID, so the fact that they are back to 2018/2019 levels indicates better-than-trend performance, not just back-to-normal. I also thank Matt for helping me catch a typo in my own analysis.
ReplyDeleteOne exciting statistics which is still missing is the lost membership records. It is one topic to talk about inactive members. It is a whole different topic to keep members on the rolls who have moved away decades ago and who are now most probably filling the pewscof other denominations.
ReplyDeleteThus, the number of lost membership records can give us a more realistic membership number and activity rate.
It's not meaningful to have a ward with 2000 members, yet only 80 people are attending. How many members have moved away decades ago?
In my attempt to compare Mexico and Brazil, I try to find the reasons why these countries appear as success stories in missionary work.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, the total number of members in both countries is very similar. But the activity rates are very different. Brazil operates with an activity rate of 20 to 25%, giving the Church around 350,000 active members. The baptism lists from the miraculous 90s are constantly ruminated in search of names that never even had contact with the Church beyond the month in which they were taught/baptized and were never heard from again. There are several cases in which we work to reactivate whose registered addresses do not even exist, however, these registrations will continue to haunt us until 2100.
In Mexico, we read that activity rates are demonstrably higher, approaching 40%. What then explains this proximity of conditions if in reality the cases seem to be so different? Why the very close number of temples? While Mexico has more units than Brazil, the area of Brazilian temples is larger, as many in Mexico are President Hinckley's small temples. My theory is that there is really a great demand for the occupation of temples in Mexico, justifying the large number. In Brazil, the number of temples does not depend so much on use or demand, but rather on the absolutely gigantic distances between the centers of power, even though usage rates may be lower when compared to its neighbor to the north.
Daniel Moretti - Member activity rates in Mexico are also very low like Brazil - both countries are about 20%.
ReplyDeleteDear Matt, I don't remember where I read about the 40% issue in Mexico, and with your confirmation it is clear that it was neither here nor in Cumorah. But if my hypothesis fell apart, and considering that Mexico has a much smaller territory than Brazil, the only explanation for the parity in the number of temples is again a greater number of tithe payers in Mexico to finance these works...
DeleteBrazil has more stakes and congregations than Mexico, but the number of active members per congregation in Brazil is less than in Mexico. They are pretty similar in a lot of ways, but the percentage of Latter-day Saints (total church membership) is about twice as much in Mexico than Brazil.
ReplyDeleteMatt, coild you go ahead deeply analysing Brasil X México and Peru X Chile X Argentina. Number of members, number of stakes, conhgregations and percentage of activity ?
DeleteA temple in Yuma, Arizona is wonderful, but I find it surprising since the nearby El Centro California stake was dissolved in 2023 due to declining membership. There is an interesting pattern going on in California: although we are the only one of the 50 states in the last 12 years to have a decrease in church membership,we keep getting rewarded with more temples, or in the case of Yuma, a temple right next to California. Does anyone know how to find out if there was an increase in church membership in California in 2023?
ReplyDeleteKimberly,
ReplyDeleteAs of year-end 2023, California had 728,598 members in 147 Stakes, 1,112 congregations (977 wards and 135 Branches), 15 missions and 8 dedicated temples.
As of year-end 2022, California had 728,995 members in 146 Stakes, 1,134 congregations (1,001 Wards and 133 Branches), 15 missions and 7 dedicated temples.
It's still declining in 2023 but not as fast. Maybe 2024 will be the year things turn around for California.
https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/facts-and-statistics/state/california