See below for US states/District of Columbia by net change in congregations for the year 2022. Membership growth rates by state can be found here. Congregational growth rates often provide insights into changes in active membership, albeit this is far than a perfect metric for ascertaining active membership. For instance, new congregations may be organized to accommodate a specific language group or demographic such as young single adults without a noticeable increase in the number of active members in a particular area. Moreover, congregations may be consolidated after years for slow decline or due to members moving away from a particular area. Nevertheless, trends in congregational growth over time often provide the greatest insight into active membership changes given congregations must meet certain requirements for active membership to operate.
- Utah +37
- Texas +7
- Michigan +3
- Arkansas +2
- Indiana +2
- Montana +2
- North Carolina +2
- South Carolina +2
- Tennessee +2
- Alaska +1
- Hawaii +1
- Minnesota +1
- Missouri +1
- New York +1
- South Dakota +1
- West Virginia +1
- Wisconsin +1
- Alabama 0
- Delaware 0
- District of Columbia 0
- Florida 0
- Idaho 0
- Kansas 0
- Kentucky 0
- Maine 0
- Massachusetts 0
- Mississippi 0
- Nebraska 0
- New Hampshire 0
- New Mexico 0
- North Dakota 0
- Oklahoma 0
- Rhode Island 0
- Vermont 0
- Wyoming 0
- Connecticut -1
- Iowa -1
- Louisiana -1
- Maryland -1
- New Jersey -1
- Pennsylvania -1
- Virginia -1
- Illinois -2
- Ohio -2
- Georgia -3
- Colorado -4
- Oregon -5
- Nevada -9
- Arizona -10
- Washington -32
- California -55
In contrast, see below for the net change in congregations by state for the two-year period of 2020-2021:
- Utah +146
- Idaho +32
- Florida +15
- Arizona +14
- Texas +14
- Nevada +12
- Virginia +12
- Maryland +6
- North Carolina +6
- South Carolina +6
- Missouri +5
- Kentucky +4
- Colorado +3
- Georgia +3
- Iowa +3
- New York +3
- Arkansas +2
- New Jersey +2
- Ohio +2
- Tennessee +2
- Connecticut +1
- Hawaii +1
- Montana +1
- Wyoming +1
- Alabama 0
- Alaska 0
- Delaware 0
- District of Columbia 0
- Maine 0
- Massachusetts 0
- Michigan 0
- Nebraska 0
- New Hampshire 0
- North Dakota 0
- Oklahoma 0
- Rhode Island 0
- South Dakota 0
- Vermont 0
- Wisconsin 0
- Illinois -1
- Kansas -1
- Minnesota -1
- Mississippi -1
- New Mexico -1
- Pennsylvania -1
- West Virginia -1
- Indiana -2
- Louisiana -2
- Oregon -5
- Washington -23
- California -40
11 comments:
Really interesting stuff, Matt.
I know I've heard stories about lots of members moving from the west coast (Washington and California in particular) to Utah/Arizona/Idaho.
Doesn't look like the congregation growth in those rocky mountain states reflect that kind of phenomenon. Unless Utah is absorbing all of California and didn't have any organic growth of its own (highly unlikely).
The other places I keep hearing people have been moving to (North Carolina, Tennessee, Florida) are a combined +4. Doesn't really scratch the surface of the -92 units on the Pacific coast.
Maybe there's a lag in creations/closures when people move, but I would anticipate the lag to show up in unit closures more than openings.
Surprising to see even Idaho and Arizona at a combined -10 in congregations.
Thanks James - Oftentimes congregational growth trends lag behind membership growth trends, so we will see what 2023 and 2024 look like before we can say whether we have reached the point of where we are seeing net zero congregational growth or decline. Historically, the Church in the United States has been very resilient with maintaining steady increases in the number of congregations, even if membership growth rates are declining or nearly flat.
You've listed membership percent, congregational growth, and current membership. Is there a list of member increase in number? Ie. for overall population, while Utah and Idaho is the fastest growing per capita, Texas is the fastest growing state by numerical increase. I was curious how that looks with the 1-year change over 2022.
Sure. See below. I apologize if the formatting is off.
Utah 12,034
Texas 7,274
Florida 3,969
Idaho 2,653
Missouri 2,584
North Carolina 2,497
New York 1,991
Tennessee 1,966
Arkansas 1,378
Georgia 1,377
South Carolina 1,328
Arizona 1,162
Oklahoma 1,047
Alabama 987
Ohio 807
Kentucky 753
Kansas 716
Virginia 701
Indiana 570
Minnesota 502
Illinois 480
Montana 426
New Jersey 373
Michigan 362
Wisconsin 361
Wyoming 343
Alaska 324
Massachusetts 265
Mississippi 253
Iowa 226
Connecticut 213
North Dakota 200
South Dakota 197
Louisiana 177
Nebraska 174
West Virginia 115
Hawaii 94
Rhode Island 68
Maine 67
Pennsylvania 44
District of Columbia 32
New Hampshire 29
Delaware 18
Maryland -13
Vermont -24
New Mexico -41
Colorado -299
Nevada -594
Oregon -944
Washington -2,220
California -5,994
Thank you Matt!!!
Also published today on the Church News site an interesting article about a new nmodern times first for the Church.
"A latter-day first: Church has 4 nonagenarian apostles, including entire First Presidency"
https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders/2023/6/1/23732510/first-presidency-apostles-90-nonagenarian-latter-day-first-church
Today I read this article about Elder Christofferson's recent travels in Australia and New Zealand. It mentions he visited Hobart, Tasmania. I know some commenters here view the apostles' travels as an indicator of possible temple announcements. While I've been skeptical of that as a metric because there are plenty of other reasons for them to go places, I've also failed to predict many announcements in recent years so perhaps I should start taking apostolic travels as an indicator of future temple announcements. I've considered Hobart something of a "dark horse" possible temple site for several years, but maybe it needs to be upgraded on my predictions in light of Elder Christofferson's visit.
Also, I think it is good that he visited Darwin and Alice Springs. While members in all parts of the world matter regardless of whether there are many or few in a given location, I know from experience that visits like that to remote areas or places with few fellow members give a sense of encouragement and connection and fill a need that members who live in areas with many fellow members generally don't experience.
(For those who wish to read it, the article is at https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/elder-christofferson-invites-pacific-area-saints-prepare-for-auckland-temple-dedication
)
--Felix
Thanks, Matt! Idea for a future post:
An analysis of state-by-state (and country-by-country) looking at two things:
1. The number of years since the area hit their "peak" in terms of congregations.
2. The percentage of congregations today in an area relative to its peak.
I think this would give us some context about longer term trends of growth in certain areas. For example, I read elsewhere that the peak units for many South American countries (e.g., Chile, Uruguay, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador) was all the way back in the 1990's, and they currently sit 17% - 40% off of their "peak" of congregations).
In contrast, Honduras' peak was in 2019, suggesting it has more current momentum for future long-term growth.
On a state-by-state basis, I'd expect states like California to have hit their peak years ago, while states like North Carolina may be at their current peak, suggesting they have a lot of current momentum relative to stagnation. This would sort of be like taking the second derivative in terms of church growth - estimating the level of current acceleration, and it may also be a significant predictor of future stakes (I would say temples, but I can't say that temple announcements follow a rational pattern).
On April 16, 2023, the Sandy Utah Crescent North Stake was also dissolved. A new stake, the Stake Utah Dimple Dell Stake was created when it was combined with the former Sandy Utah Crescent Park Stake.
https://www.sandyutahcrescentparkstake.org/stake/stake-information
Post a Comment