Andy Larson from the Salt Lake Tribune published an article today that has some excellent graphs and analysis of membership growth trends in the United States during the past four decades. I also did a podcast interview with the Salt Lake Tribune that was published last week where I discuss some of the trends with membership growth in the United States, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. This podcast can be accessed here.
Monday, May 23, 2022
Analysis of Latter-day Saint Membership Growth Trends in the United States
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Sadly when i try to read the linked article a popup requesting a payed subscription shows up. I am not willing to pay 15$ to read it. Most of you propably will not have that problem. I think it is my geocode that makes the payment mandatory.
I live in WA, but I live in a red region of the state, so my observations are not applicable to the state as a whole. I myself am a refugee from the breakdown in social order in Portland, and we have a number of people like that here. (I interacted with a young man who fled Seattle for instance.)
What I can see in my congregation is that among older members (50+ in years maybe) they are largely active, except for several elderly members experiencing age-related disabilities.
Youth are less active, but there are a lot of amazing good things.
In my ward, we have had more convert baptisms in the past year than we have almost since the beginning of the ward. Now most or all of these converts are married to active members, so family relationships accounts for a big part. Still, I suspect the influx of refugees has stirred up the social situation enough to increase the number of people open to the church. Also, of course we are growing just from the number of refugees settling here.
I had an interesting discussion with the missionaries about people who have had their names removed from the church, but now wish to come back. It is surprisingly hard for them to do so. But the missionaries said it has happened several times in our ward, but for privacy reasons we keep it on the down low.
I don't necessarily have anything new to add about Church Growth, but I am pleased to report that yesterday, I published the initial draft of my predictions for the October 2022 General Conference:
https://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com/2022/05/initial-predictions-for-october-2022.html
I have specifically expanded my list of prospective locations in which a temple could be announced, and we also don't yet know what the focus of the Saturday evening session will be. I look forward to any feedback on those predictions. My thanks once again to you all.
Thanks, Matt!
The data visualization Andy uses in the Trib article is really spiffy. Any goals to update this site or the Cumorah one to have more accessible statistical analysis?
I think Andy did a great job of putting together whether the recent drop in growth can be fully attributable to people moving around or COVID, or a larger trend of growth rate decline.
What is incredibly surprising is that the church's growth rate in the US is declining as a percentage of growth in overall population. That's surprising because the LDS church tends to have much higher birth rates on average than the rest of the population. Despite the extra births, on a relative basis the church is shrinking in the past five years or so.
Thanks, Matt! Really great stuff, and your analysis in the podcast was insightful.
Any plans to update this blog or the Cumorah site to be more spiffy from a data analysis accessibility side of things? Those visuals in the Trib article were really cool.
I liked the article because it seemed to me to clearly make the case with data that the church's membership is in relative decline not primarily because of Covid or people moving from one state to another, but as an overall trend of stagnant membership growth.
The most surprising statistic is that U.S. church membership is SHRINKING in terms of growth rate compared to the underlying U.S. population. I find that surprising because LDS members tend to have a much higher birth rate than the general populace. Kind of surprised that despite a higher birth rate, the church's membership in the U.S. is in a relative decline (and that's before considering activity rates).
ND Reynolds: I don't think you know the meaning of the term "refugee." Look it up; you aren't one. Sorry, but moving from Portland to another more conservative locale doesn't cut it. You can spare us the histrionics.
James: You might be surprised by how much the birth rate has shrunk among members. Even Utah is below replacement level now if I'm not mistaken.
Ohhappydane33,
Clearly you do not have a clue what has been going on in Portland for the last 5 years.
They have had weekly riots there for YEARS. Downtown Portland is a disaster, with plywood boarding up businesses.
Maybe you should learn what "breakdown in social order" means. Just because you live in some awesome part of the US doesn't mean that some parts of the US have turned into absolute nightmares . . .as bad as third-world countries.
Refugee is an accurate term for fleeing from Portland.
As to numbers; yes the Church in the US is in for decades of negative growth. The baby boomers are going to start dying off and then the Church is going to shrink massively in the US . . .in fact, that's probably the prime motive for all the changes recently. Nelson is no fool-he sees what's coming in the next 10-20 years and is shaking things up to prevent it from happening. The only question is whether what he does helps or hurts-time will tell.
I think the reason church growth in the US is below population growth, is that most of the population growth comes from immigration and not from births. Among the immigrant population the % of church members is a lot lower than the % in the general US population and thus population growth suerpases the growth of the church.
Some people may agree with your use of refugee but I suspect most would not. Refugee usually refers to someone who has left the country for one of a few specified reasons and cannot return for specific reasons. Here's the UN definition for context: A refugee is someone who has been forced to flee his or her country because of persecution, war or violence. A refugee has a well-founded fear of persecution for reasons of race, religion, nationality, political opinion or membership in a particular social group.
The term that I think best represents your situation is 'migrant'
Ohhappydane: I agree it has shrunk, but is it still greater than the underlying US population? Everything I've seen says the answer is yes.
As long as the LDS members have a birth rate higher than the underlying population, then the growth rate of members relative to US population should be higher (yes, you have immigration, but even then I'd say the LDS birth rate outweighs). But you still see negative percentage growth rates relative to US population growth rates.
Two new stakes in Utah on May 22 2022
Vineyard Utah Springwater Stake (2195
Active Date: 22 May 2022
Geneva Branch (Care Center) (224618)
Springwater 1st Ward (2182718)
Springwater 2nd Ward (260851)
Springwater 4th Ward (206776)
Springwater 5th Ward (247405)
Springwater 6th Ward (1952439)
Springwater 7th Ward (1993550)
Springwater 8th Ward (2025590)
Springwater 9th Ward (2063379)
Springwater 3rd Ward (Spanish) (445819)
Herriman Utah Mountain Ridge Stake (2206153)
Active Date: 22 May 2022
Juniper Canyon Ward (2192527)
Meadow Rose Ward (2079348)
Park House Ward (2116537)
Saddle Brook Ward (2132680)
Shadow Run Ward (2101785)
South Hills Ward (2157276)
I have long refuted the idea that "blue" and "urban" areas are undergoing a massive exodus in the general population to the benefit of rural areas. Most of the time, actual population movements do not support the notion: cities (including Portland) are growing, they are typically no less safe than suburban and rural locations, and much of the notion that it is otherwise is basically propaganda. The facts are: Portland has gained residents at a steady clip each of the last 10 years. Violent crime in Portland is below the US average, which is remarkable for a city of more than half a million. The same applies to many of the other cities often associated with high crime rates and a rumored exodus, such as Seattle and Chicago.
I'll talk a bit more about Illinois because I just happen to live there. The media will tell you that the southside of Chicago is excessively dangerous and that everyone who is still there is either a criminal or has insufficient material ability to leave. Relative to the rest of Chicagoland, that may be true, but the most dangerous parts of Illinois are actually almost all downstate and they are concentrated in areas that are deeply Republican: Danville is the most dangerous city in Illinois statistically. Rockford is getting better but still has its issues. Kankakee is a dump that is miraculously getting upheld by its slightly better-off (thanks to Olivet Nazarene University) neighbor Bourbonnais. Decatur is probably lost beyond rescue. The Metro East is a pretty mixed bag that gets its bad reputation mostly from a few actually bad parts of Washington Park, but places like Edwardsville, O'Fallon, and Belleville are safe, much more populous to start and growing, and so is Metro East as a whole.
The nice thing is that the data is available for all to see. The "Big Blue City Exodus" is a fairytale that doesn't withstand even the most basic of scrutiny, and calling yourself a refugee for moving away from Portland is an insult to those who are actually forced to flee their homelands for reasons of genuine war, violence, and persecution.
The 2021 US census estimates show a clear movement of people out of large urban areas to less developed areas. In Michigan this means a loss of population in the Detroit Metro area and a rise in population in the northwest Michigan counties broadly around Travese City.
It is too soon to say how much of this is long term, and how much is short term fueled by so many central city business districts going to remote working for a year or more, combined with most cultural and other events being shut down in the fall of 2020 and basically until sometime in the late summer of 2021.
I suspect some of the population will have permanently relocated, but I also suspect some people will return to central urban areas when Covid-19 recedes. There are other factors that will play parts in this.
What is clear is that Detroit had 2 million people in 1948 and has about 650,000 people today. There have been multiple waves of people leaving the city. Most of my co-workers grew up in Detroit City limits and no longer live there. So there is a long standing trend of people leaving the central cities.
There are other counter trends that cause people to move into central cities. No movement tend is ever unidirectional.
It would be wonderful if the blog had a like button. You were assertive and correct in everything you wrote. Hugs to all from here in the uncivilized third world (yes, "third world in XXI centuty is very offensive)
My theory (unverified) is that church members in the United States are too political, and lean heavily toward one political party. Thus like most highly politicized groups, they are trapped in the echo chambers of social media, traditional media, and or in-person socializing.
These echo chambers always confirm whatever your group believes and can easily make you feel that the world has ended or is about to end. Traditional media thrives on spreading those beliefs, people are hooked to the news and end up looking for a new place to run away to. You might even feel like a "refugee".
I even see people antagonizing friends, neighbors, and family because they don't agree with what they "see" but so many don't.
I assume all Americans know this but people from other countries might have no idea.
Does anyone know when the "Orem Utah Vineyard Stake - 1995693", originally organized June 16th, 2013, had been renamed "Vineyard Utah Stake - 1995693"?
https://classic.churchofjesuschrist.org/maps/#ll=40.2862,-111.741421&z=14&m=google.hybrid&layers=stakecenter&q=1995693&find=stake:1995693
Excellent interview. Thank you for sharing
@SearchtheTruth -- I saw your comment a few hours ago; I don't remember which post it was on, but I was happy to see that someone else found the aerial view of the construction work of Temple Square very interesting as well!! Finally! I assumed no one else was interested in my comment. haha.
For others, I had commented the following a month ago (because I wanted everyone else's opinions/thoughts/insights):
"I just learned some exciting news in regards to the Salt Lake Temple and thought I'd pass it along! The Angel Moroni is not going back up when the renovation is completed, but it's not going to remain a spire either; the Savior will be established atop!
Also, there's some other symbolic architectural design elements seen from an aerial view from Temple Square as a whole (something about buildings in the shape of crosses and others in the shape of arches -- like the new logo).
**I learned this from Gary Smith's (the head artist of the Salt Lake Temple renovation) son, Nate Smith."
Does anyone else have thoughts on the matter? Or has anyone else heard of anything similar regarding the Savior being placed atop the new Salt Lake Temple?
Just like I reported here last week that the Green Bay Stake Center had been relocated to Urumqi, in northwest People's Republic of China, on the Classic Maps site.
I have just found another stake center that is out of place on the map. The "Praia Cape Verde Stake - 614718" has been relocated along the Sudan/Chad border in northeastern African continent recently on the Classic Maps site.
https://classic.churchofjesuschrist.org/maps/#ll=13.834131,24.025385&z=6&m=google.hybrid&layers=stakecenter&q=614718&find=stake:614718
I think it would be interesting to see the age demographic among active (or self-identifying) Mormons compared to the age demographic among the general population. I know it's anecdotal but older generations like Boomers and the first few years of Gen X seem to remain active at much higher rates than people young enough to be having children now. My theory is that active members who are having children would need to have very large families to offset the imbalance.
I also like Miro do not want to pay to read SLC articles. Sometimes I read their reports through sports stories without additional pay. I would like to purview the info based on what I already pay for Internet resources.
Temple numbers increasing despite lesser member numbers is an interesting phenomenon. Like California.
I could see U.S. membership decrease, based on problems of less activity on current youth trends. I see it in my own children, nieces and nephews. And siblings.
It is great to see missionary growth anywhere. We see it strongly in much of Africa. (Many of its countries and peoples have no Church access. Yet).
The Church of Jesus Christ will fulfill the prophecies truly pronounced about it.
We choose to be a part of it and be missionaries for Christ with it.
As Matt has stated recently, antagonism is not acceptable in this forum.
I hope my comments are deemed relevant and respectful.
A metaphorical refugee versus a literal refugee makes sense to me. I understand and entertain the sentiment.
There are also IDPs. Internally displaced persons. Happens for many reasons.
I think someone can define themselves by whatever term they please. If ND Reynolds believes his situation warrants defining himself as a refugee, then that's his business.
@ Ethan - Estimates vary, with 46% being the lowest, but yes, millennials and Gen Z definitely have lower retention. https://religionnews.com/2019/03/27/how-many-millennials-are-really-leaving-the-lds-church/
We can gauge the increasing severity of the problem by how often it's addressed by church leaders and publications now compared to ten or twenty years ago. Everyone born into the church can name multiple friends and/or family members who have left. In a recent Meridian Magazine article entitled "Are We Losing? A Gospel Perspective on Imperfect Families," the author writes, "Of our five living children, only two have a relationship with the Church. And I’m confident that our family is now the norm not the exception. I can’t recall a single conversation in the past year with parents who have reported full Church engagement from a family with three or more children." https://latterdaysaintmag.com/are-we-losing-a-gospel-perspective-on-imperfect-families/
Of course, there's no reason to think this trend will stop or level out on its own. But even if it does miraculously stop deteriorating, the church will have a problem when all the old people with higher retention are dead.
Aba Nigeria Osisioma Stake (2201860)
Active Date: 15 May 2022
Osisioma 4th Branch (2112426)
Abayi 2nd Ward (1976796)
Osisioma 1st Ward (285064)
Osisioma 2nd Ward (1976761)
Osisioma 3rd Ward (2081156)
Osisioma 5th Ward (2112434)
Owerrinta Ward (318906)
This 05 June there will be a special conference involving the Nealtican and Nealtican North stakes that will be attended by the Mexico Area President and an Area Seventy.
Videos on "Estaca Nealtican" 's facebook page strongly hint at the possible creation of a third stake, as in the historical runup to the conference the Stake Presidency of Nealtican talked about historic occurrences like the first branch in 1931, the first chapel 30 years later, the first stake in 1991, the second stake in 2013, and now inviting people to participate in another historical conference.
There are 17 wards and a branch between the two stakes.
Nealtican is the area that has the densest population of Church members in Mexico outside of the Chihuahua colonies. Those stakes continue to perform at a very high level compared with surrounding stakes.
The Salt Lake Tribune has tried to destroy the church since its beginnings. It is an instrument of opposition, discouragement and ultimately hate. Has it been able to do it? Every week they publish at least something discouraging and almost hateful about the Church. What can you expect from them? They have been predicting gloom and destruction for decades and even now the paper has in mind to destroy the faith of certain people and destroy them
I do not think there is a problem with the Church of Jesus Christ losing too many members, as long as the Book of Mormon and the Priesthoods, and of course the Bible as it is translated, are true.
There many more than a billion Christians devoted to Jesus, the Son of God. If and when they come to the light and knowledge of the Everlasting Gospel, they will all be in the fold.
All these temples are filling the earth. No small thing.
Prophecies will be fulfilled: if the modern prophets are true, as the Savior that they speak of and follow, the numbers of LDS will be somewhat immaterial. Dressing, on a very nice cake.
Sad about the violence in Burkina Faso. How many missionaries do we have there?
Prayers to Ukraine and Texas, and all places with those under duress.
Is the trend of slow growth not just a trend in this church? My understanding that religious involvement seems to be a downward trend throughout all church denominations. We need to find ways to bring people back and help people stay on the straight and narrow.
Christopher Duerig, the last thing I want to do is make you feel bad or put you on the spot. But again, as with the last error you mentioned, I followed the exact link you specified on both desktop and by phone, and in both cases, it led to the Praia Cape Verde Stake in the correct location. I've checked and double-checked it. The error appears to be entirely on your end. And again, if I had to guess, it would simply be a matter of you not having cleared out your internet history in a while, including and especially the browser cache and cookies. Anytime I have had the type of problem that seems to be occurring on your end here, clearing out the cache, cookies, and history has always fixed it every time. And failure to do that regularly enough has been shown to cause the same type of idiosyncratic errors you seem to be encountering here. But I've followed the links you've shared in both cases, and the stakes are always in the right locations, so I've been unable to duplicate the problem you've described. That's why I say it's likely something occurring on your end. Again, no offense intneded and I hope none is taken.
Elder Bednar just had a press conference at the National Press Club in Washington D.C.
He talked about several current stats of the Restored Church of Jesus Christ, as well as compared some stats from the year 2000.
Thought it might be of interest to others here:
https://youtu.be/MqBtFWUnrn4
The Youtube link is the highlights, the Newsroom page links to both the text and a C-SPAN broadcast of the entire event.
Bravo, @Pascal Friedman! I concur.
For several weeks now, there has been locations on the Meetinghouse Locater and Classic Maps that have been missing meetinghouse locations. This is especially true in Mexico and some other areas like Hong Kong. Has anyone else noticed this?
The Estaca Nealtican social media pages are very well produced, probably the best I have seen from any local church unit. It would be amazing to have 3 stakes there considering the size of the town.
It's pretty amazing that the information that has been presented on this blog and cumorah.com has been picked up by the media and was able to reach the ears of Elder Bednar. I thank the author of this blog for willing to speak with the Salt Lake Tribune reporters (the podcast is free if you want to listen). I think Elder Bednar's answer was acceptable. The movement patterns of U.S. members of the church follow the general migration patterns of the general US population. The birth rate of church membership also follows the trend of the US population as well. It was interesting that he cast a bit of doubt on the accuracy of the numbers considering they were released by the church.
In regards to the Salt Lake Tribune, it is perfectly fine to disagree with the framing of the reporting or the content that is promoted. I often don't like how headlines are written. But I think it is a net positive to have a media entity covering the church that doesn't receive funding from it (Church News, Deseret News, KSL). I think the coverage is good and worth reading from these publications, but it's also healthy to know what outsiders are reporting. The reporters at the Tribune are more familiar with the church and are much more accurate than national publications that would otherwise cover the church.
Public figures are more likely to act well when they are held accountable. Similar to how we shouldn't judge present church leaders based off the actions of those from the past, it's probably not right to judge present reporters based off those from the past. The senior church leaders pay attention to what is reported. Elder Bednar himself quoted a Tribune article in the Q&A. There are important items of information and culture that otherwise don't see the light of day. I especially like their coverage on how sisters missionaries were treated after going through sexual assault. The missionary department responded and it appears like they made changes. It is easy to attribute uncomfortable feelings with the loss of the spirit or hate. But I believe uncomfortable feelings can be a way that the spirit prompts us to make positive changes in our personal lives and organizations.
Cory - I am not sure what you mean about the information in this blog and on cumorah.com being able to "reach the ears of Elder Bednar." What are you referring to exactly?
@R. Jofre
I've seen a lot of people in our culture put politics over doctrine, too, especially over the last few years (myself included).
It's something that we need to work on as individuals and and as a group - returning Christ to the center of our lives, rather than one party or another.
That said, I remembered an article I came across in February entitled:
"Americans are fleeing to places where political views match their own"
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/18/1081295373/the-big-sort-americans-move-to-areas-political-alignment
I think it's relevant to our discussion. The writer discusses the points of view of people on the left and the right, and tribalism in general.
Sometimes the political arguments spill into our meetinghouses, I shared this before, it is telling in some ways.
I found a stake conference leadership meeting and watched it over a year ago, I cannot remember if I saw it live or not but I saw it the same day. The area seventy presiding said that he felt strongly he had to share something at that stake conference that had happened at another stake conference 3 weeks before, we were a couple months into 2021 by the time this was told:
After he had finished the general session, and while everyone was still in the process of leaving, he overheard an argument in the hall. The argument was over the outcome of the previous election. I think it could have been anything from local on up, but more than likely it easily could have been the national election just months before.
He then stated that we really need to 'be one' in the gospel and leave the politics out of it. That may have been one of the things that led to President Oaks' statements during the April 2021 general conference as well as other statements near that.
Matt- Andy Larson's article was cited by the reporter that asked questions to Elder Bednar at the National Press Club. Larson said he wrote his article because he was intrigued by the information that you presented in the MormonLand Podcast. So I am presuming that had you not given that interview, the NPC journalist would not have asked Elder Bednar that question.
Cory, for the record, the Matt who asked you the question you answered is not the same Matt who owns and operates this blog. If you click on the name, you'll see that the Matt who asked the question has only been on Blogger since roughly 2011, several years after Matthew (Matt) Martinich started this blog. Unfortunately, that is not immediately apparent just based on the comments alone. It always gets a little tricky when multiple people under the same name comment. I've been able to differentiate my comments from those of Jim (formerly James) Anderson and from the comments from another James who does not have a profile picture appearing with his comments. Seems to me that Blogger should disallow two or more profiles with the same styled name. In either case, just wanted to set the record straight that the Matt who inquired about this was not the same Matt who runs this blog.
I am pretty sure that Donald Trump has done damage to the confidence and trust of normal people towards those who espouse religion. He will answer to a lot, as most of us will, but him more so. Politics gets very ugly, and Donald is about as ugly as a non-tyrant can get.
Jesus is the answer, not any human candidate. At least we have a Godly inspired Constitution and excellent form of government in the U.S. that ensures a more perfect Union and rule of law, due process, etcetera.
Human politics is pretty ugly, too often. Religion can get that way, too.
We have to maintain our faith in God, and as counseled by our leaders, as Christ, to stay above the ugliness. And render to the Lord what is His. Plenty of Caesars out there.
The best members of faith may some day be apolitical, perhaps people in Congo or Nigeria. For now, we are a Zion people as long as we are the pure in heart and repent of our sins.
No matter what political party.
Sometimes I think that many Muslims are better at being devoted to God, acceptable to Him, than many politicians and Westerners, and the people who put too much stock in Mammon. Of course there are Muslims who vote in republics and democracies, too. It will be fascinating how it all shakes out.
We always have to be careful of being too hateful or hyperjudgmental, like the Pharisees.
Is the best stake growth between Utah and Africa now? Perhaps the South Pacific comes in third? Latin America fourth.
James - yes, that actually was me - I have difficulties commenting on here when I am using a different computer sometimes. Thanks Cory for pointing this out. This was addressed with Elder Bednar if you watch the hour-long video of Elder Bednar presenting his talk and then responding to questions.
Here's the link to the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAx1LRSB9kU.
Interesting article states that the Guam temple’s instruction room can be used as a sealing room when needed and that its sealing room can be used as an instruction room when needed: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.deseret.com/2022/5/26/23125857/mormon-lds-church-new-design-for-temples-latter-day-saints-guam-temple%3F_amp%3Dtrue
Matt, thanks for clearing that up. Anonymous, that unique feature (the rooms that can be either endowment or sealing rooms) had been mentioned previously, but when the picture gallery for Yigo showed one apiece, I had mistakenly thought (and asserted) that there were just the two separate rooms. I'm grateful that resources from the Church News, newsroom, and the Deseret News clarified that there are two rooms that can be transitioned to either type based on need and scheduling. Speaking of scheduling, I think that the online system will be used for the foreseeable future, since it seems to work so well, and not just until all temples resume normal operations. Also, conccerning scheduling, I stumbled across something interesting about the Hong Kong China Temple's reopening:
https://hk.churchofjesuschrist.org/?lang=zho
If that information is correct, public tours were offered between May 23 and May 29, and the temple will be rededicated on June 19, the same day the Church will dedicate the Praia Cape Verde Temple. This is the closest thing I've found to an official acknowledgement of reopening arrangements for this temple. So if that information is legitimate, the rededication of that temple will actually occur before that of the Washington D.C. Temple and the Hamilton New Zealand Temple.
@Jim Anderson
Thanks for giving those additional details for Elder Bednar's Press Conference. :)
Here's a link to the highlights of his question-and-answer session, too:
https://youtu.be/drsaphYuQ04
"Tokyo Japan Temple begins public-facing phase with tours, photos, video"
https://www.thechurchnews.com/temples/2022-05-29/tokyo-japan-temple-begins-public-facing-phase-with-tours-photos-video-255791
A little while ago (I don't remember exactly on which post), there was a discussion of some of the missions in eastern Europe and their extremely low (in the case of the Czech-Slovak Mission) performance in baptisms. The claim was that this mission did not baptize at all last year, which I think is unlikely for a variety of reasons.
Although information from the Czech Republic itself is very hard to come by for outsiders, the main reason why I don't believe it is that a very culturally similar but traditionally less receptive mission (Poland Warsaw) is seeing sometimes multiple baptisms a week, including six yesterday and today: https://www.facebook.com/PolskaWarszawskaMisja/posts/721550759185407?__cft__[0]=AZW6640aoOv8RtM2fWCjqlbnGAmazcJEsM3WtyDkiv5LHJW7SFyCiQG52AIy5SBPLyajOsNpuqITyiKq5wWMNYR74eJKP8jm9ErUsyELNGjV6_A31m6NAG1VcWTi6onagFiKK64Bxe8rnnElZWK0EvsDoVghstqFoh6lthypc5G8GTiGz5RtybiyraP9Pgq0e52iQqQKaWEmGxnwgB_dOM6k&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R
I hope the link comes through, otherwise look for Polska Warszawska Misja - Prezydent i Siostra Chandler on Facebook. I also counted 18 baptisms with pictures from last year (so really, this weekend, we got a third of the total convert baptisms from 2021 in Poland). So yes, the numbers aren't massive by any means, but zero is just a statistically highly unlikely outcome.
@james If you look at the Praia Cape Verde photos of the instruction room on churchofjesuschristtemples.org you can see the altar is already set up for use as a sealing room as well.
I don't get on this site everyday, so forgive me for posting this late. As already noted, members have children at a greater rate from deaths, the church is still reporting baptisms, and records are still there even if one goes less active. Excommunications are relatively rare, and those requesting removal of records is relatively few and can't justify all those states in the decline (these are still rarer than baptisms). Membership numbers is simply a record count. So it makes since why people wonder why a decline in so many states. Something happened where a small, but significant fraction of the church records were removed.
My thoughts is that the church purged the records for those that have died, duplicates, etc. The only other thing I can think of is if there was a change in policy on who's counted in membership. I don't know if it's always been there, but the church now has a policy of automatically removing those above a certain age. That being said, I don't think it was something implemented and done in one day.
Removed records tend to be of those not attending sacrament meeting, so it will be interesting to see what impact this might have, if any, to activity rates.
Statistically unlikely, yes, but not when you factor in specific decisions and policy in the mission. All I will say is that there was a conscious decision to put missionary work (finding, teaching, and learning the language) behind other considerations.
My parents served in both the Warsaw Poland mission (presidents Edgren and Turek) and Czech-Slovak missions (presidents PoHo and Gehring). It is possible to not have any baptisms when baptisms aren't a focus at all.
The Tokyo Japan Temple if I am understanding the article corectly has a vistors center now but did not before. The rise in vistors centers over the last decade has been significant. It still is far below the rise in temples, but they have moved into new areas where they did not exist before.
@David, I see what you are saying, but the trends from the post linked here indicate this isn't a church-wide effort across the US to clean up records caused this to occur. It doesn't seem to be an accounting issue.
In my state of Illinois, our entire stake had about 15 baptisms last year. Based on my count, we also had 11 baptisms of 8-year-olds, and about 25 babies blessed. Is it really that big of a stretch to have more than 50 people leave the state without more replacing them, dying, removing their records altogether, or not baptizing their kids and triggering a removal of records when they turn 9?
Since excommunications and official name removals are rare, I think the equation is somewhat simple here:
You have:
Convert baptisms + new babies blessed + members moving in from out of state
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Dying members + members removing records + members not baptizing their kids at age 8 + members moving out of state
In Illinois, the latter had about 350 more than the former across the state. Is that a real stretch? Every trend right now points to a decline in growth: fewer babies born to members, fewer baptizing their kids at age 8, fewer convert baptisms, and more members removing records and more dying (the church is aging overall).
I do wonder, McKay, what happens to those who moved out but don't move their records to a new location. In other words, let's say a family has been in our ward roster for 10 years. The Ward clerk goes through the extensive process of ensuring they are not in their ward anymore and sends their records to SLC. Where do they go then? Are they counted as Utah members? Somewhere else? Matt, do you know?
Since James mentioned the low profile regarding the Hong Kong temple open house and rededication (and it has indeed been pretty low profile), I thought it worth noting that an invitation to a live broadcast of the rededication in Urdu has been extended to the Saints in Pakistan. I assume similar invitations have been extended to members in other countries also living in the Hong Kong temple district. Given the increasingly oppressive tactics and policies of China in Hong Kong, it would not surprise me if the church avoided running a more broad PR campaign in favor of less publicized invitations to members only when organizing the open house in order to avoid bringing the temple any unwanted attention from Chinese authorities.
The "Moscow Branch (English)" was recently consolidated. I am guessing most of the English-speaking members in the country left when the conflict started 4 months ago. Leaving maybe some Embassy staff only.
36 May 30, 2022 Moscow Branch (English) Moscow, Russia
Also recently organized a 3rd branch in Bong county, Liberia. The Totota Branch was split to become the "Totota 2nd Branch - 2114194", and the newly created "Totota 1st Branch - 2200848", along with the "Gbarnga Branch - 2133261".
66 May 24, 2022 Totota 1st Branch Totota, Liberia
https://classic.churchofjesuschrist.org/maps/#ll=6.90385,-9.683835&z=10&m=google.hybrid&layers=stakecenter&q=Totota&find=ward:2200848
"Totota
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Location in Liberia
Coordinates: 6°49′N 9°55′W
Country Flag of Liberia.svg Liberia
County Bong County
Totota is a small town in Bong County, Liberia with a population between 5,000 and 8,000 depending upon the season. The main paved road from Monrovia to Gbarnga passes through Totota, keeping Totota alive with activity day and night...."
With 3 branches in Bong county, I wonder how close it is to become a Church District.
Speaking of Japan, what's going on with stakes dissolving? It looks as though they've gone from 28 to 22 in the last year or so.
As an economist and statistician myself, two points of data from anomalistic years does not a trend make.
This analysis on whether the church is growing is an exercise in futility. Aside from the last two COVID years, the Church has almost ALWAYS grown much faster than the average growth rate of the US population.
The only interesting piece of information we have learned the past two years is how much the Church actually depends on its programs, ongoing access to its worship services, and the unfettered execution of its missionary program. Prior to COVID, I think many (myself included) just assumed the average growth rate was largely due to increased rate of childbirth.
Now that we are seeing the world open back up from COVID, I believe growth for the LDS Church will quickly return to pre-COVID levels. There may be a “ramp up” in 2022, but (hardly shows any reliable or consistent trend.
The whole reason I deeply wish statisticians would learn to think like economists. Numbers do it occur in a vacuum. Never underestimate qualitative variables and the human element.
So far after five months we have a net gain of five wards and three branches worldwide.
One of those branches, in a particularly productive area in my mission called Comitán, where they just established a fourth branch in the town.
Compared with the same timeframe over the past few years:
2022: +5 wards, +3 branches
2021: +68 wards, +5 branches
2020: +62 wards, +4 branches
2019: +184 wards, -5 branches
2018: +130 wards, +12 branches
The stats are simply not adding up. We are very flat for the year.
Just got back from a family reunion over the weekend in Idaho. Drove around the IF Temple (which I've visited many times).
But a highlight was getting to visit the grounds of the new (dedicated Nov. 2021) Pocatello Temple!
So, I thought of a fun game like we did here a while ago:
What's the most recently Dedicated (or Rededicated) Temple everyone's been to?
I have visited outside a few temples more recently dedicated, Like Provo City Center, Oquirrh Mountain, Payson. I went to the open house of the Philadelphia Temple. Did I attend the dedication? I cannot jog my memory of it, someone help me out.
Just went to the Washington D.C. Temple open house a couple times, and my buddy who is not a member but attended a lot of our services the last year came, too.
Great times. Sorry about the Ukraine situation. When will things be normal there again? Wow.
Any predictions as to which temple will come first: China or Russia? Hard to do anything in a country openly at war. Very sad, but the scriptures and all the Prophets are right. And Zion will be redeemed, as foretold and guided by the Lord.
Take part in it, all.
@ Johnathan
Hey! I was just there too! :) Visited the grounds and got to do a session over the weekend.
I'm also hoping to be able to visit the Richmond Temple later this summer and perhaps even the DC Temple if all works out.
In the last 15 or so years I have been to the following temples- omitting Vernal which is closest:
2007: I stopped at the Draper temple site
2009: attended Oquirrh Mountain open house
2010: visited grounds of Las Vegas temple
2012: Brigham City open house
2015: Payson open house (also stopped by Provo City Center to see construction site- this was while it was up on stilts- amazing!)
2016: grounds of Denver and Boston temples, stopped by Hartford site, attended Philadelphia open house, then saw Fort Collins temple dedication broadcast
2017: visited Lubbock and San Antonio grounds
2019: Jordan River open house, later did sealings in Fort Collins
I have also visited Temple Square in SLC several times in the last 15 years, plus Ogden, Manti and St. George grounds at least once (I may have gone into St. George in my last trip there in 2010, can't remember)
In all I have done ordinances in Bountiful, Denver, Fort Collins, Jordan River, Provo, Salt Lake, St. George, Toronto, Vernal and Washington DC temples.
I also should have listed Palmyra in temples I have done ordinances in.
I am in the Provo Utah Temple district. We moved to Orem in late 2015, and shortly thereafter, I began dealing with the health issues that have continued up to now. In mid-December 2020, we paid a short visit to the grounds of the Mount Timpanogos Utah Temple in observing our 10th anniversary.
But health issues continued to keep me away from the temple until this year, and once the Provo temple transitioned to phase 4, we were able to go back twice so far, including once earlier this week.
I guess the Indianapolis temple is still a relatively new one in terms of Church history, so I hope that counts! It's our assigned temple and the one we usually go to for ward temple trips, although I slightly prefer St Louis since they have more sessions available. I've also somewhat recently been to Ogden and Frankfurt, which are both older but were essentially rebuilt from scratch in the 2010s.
We just drove by and admired the Pocatello temple 2 days ago. Have recently been inside Logan, Meridian, Mt Timpanogas, Jordan River, and of course, Monticello. (our assigned temple) While visiting family we have driven by Orem, Taylorsville, Saratoga Sprgs., Boise, Oquirrh Mountain and Layton. Does it count that I try to drive by the Grand Junction, CO temple site every couple of days to keep tabs on the progress?!
Sydney North Stake (Aus) has been created, resulting in Gosford and Sydney Harbour stakes being combined and other boundaries being realigned.
Newcastle Stake
Cessnock
Charlestown
Maitland
Newcastle
Port Stephens Branch
Toronto
Tuggerah Lakes
Sydney Mortdale Stake
Bankstown 1
Bankstown 2 (Samoan)
East Lakes (Togan)
Mortdale
Sutherland
South Harbour
Summer Hill
Bankstown 3 (Cantonese)
Sydney North Stake
Freshwater
Greenwich
Harbour YSA
Ryde (Mandarin)
Gosford
Normanhurst
Ourimbah
Coffs Harbour District
Armidale
Coffs Harbour
Grafton
Port Macquarie
Tamworth
Narrabri
Taree
I am hearing more reports of seventies saying things about the 60-minute drive goal for new temples, meaning loads of those small ones could be on the way.
So in predicting announcements this fall, we may need to prioritize what is likely to be announced first regarding temples of any size. In other words, which locations are likely to be announced first?
A sealer at my temple which is three bus stops and less than a mile from me said the 200 mile goal was President Hinckley's statement. It took until now to get 85 percent of the Church membership within that radius of a temple, so I see this as a long-term goal with the at least 500 one being the near term.
I have visited 95 temple sites in total, with 22 this year so far. They include Billings, Bismarck, Los Angeles, Redlands, Gilbert, Gila Valley, Reno, and the Rexburg-St. George corridor. I also was able to visit the sites for Feather River, Elko, Burley, Red Cliffs, and Helena. Last year, I happened to be in Ephraim the same day the site was announced, so I drove over and checked it out. It kills me I am missing the Washington D.C. open house. I woke up this morning and almost bought a plane ticket to D.C. for this afternoon...but rational thoughts took hold before I did anything hasty. I will be visiting Richmond and D.C. in September though.
Interesting article describing the connections between the Dubai temple announcement and the Church member who helped organize the Expo 2020 in Dubai:
https://www.deseret.com/faith/2022/5/31/23141978/modeling-resiliency-in-the-face-of-global-catastrophe-giovanni-criscione-dubai-expo
The Ohafia Nigeria District was just reorganized as the Ohafia Nigeria Stake.
https://classic.churchofjesuschrist.org/maps/#ll=5.601788,7.84843&z=10&m=google.hybrid&layers=stakecenter&q=Ohafia%20Nigeria&find=stake:2025833
@Eric S.
Nice! We just missed each other in Pokey. :)
Hope you enjoy your visits to Virginia and DC.
Since we're going a little further back, here's the ones I can remember visiting during my last stint in Utah (2014-2021):
-Ogden
-Brigham City
-Logan
-Bountiful
-Salt Lake
-Jordan River
-Oquirrh Mountain
-Provo City Center
Last year, my buddy and I visited Spokane right after I moved up to Montana.
During trips while I lived in Utah:
-Star Valley, WY
-Meridian, ID (during construction)
-IF, ID (open house)
-Visited Montpelier, ID before the announcement (my brother-in-law's hometown)
The next ones I hope to visit:
-Missoula, Helena, Montpelier (once completed)
-Cardston again (once I get a passport)
My sister's stake (I think it's Cedar Mill Oregon) recently went from eight wards to six, with new names (though likely retaining six of the unit numbers).
@Christopher Duerig. I am seeing these same problems with the wrong locations of meetinghouses on the Classic Maps site too. It is not just your computer. It appears that the geocoordinates are switching the longitude direction. For example, the coordinates for the Green Bay Wisconsin Stake Center are 44.48890389903868, -87.96180291449225, but the map is showing it as 44.48890389903868, 87.96180291449225, without the 'minus' sign in front of the longitude. Hopefully they will get this corrected soon. I remember similar problems appearing on the site several years ago. BTW, thank you for your continued reporting on unit changes. This information is like gold.
@Nancy
Grand Junction definitely counts! :)
They closed the Litchfield England Stake today with wards going to Birmingham and Coventry Stakes
Nealtican México South Stake created today!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VqKwbjfSTTY&feature=youtu.be
32 to 37 minute mark for the wards and branches involved.
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