As promised, I have provided an analysis of the 2020 statistical report. See below for some of the major highlights indicated in this report. These data need to be interpreted within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Government and church restrictions on missionary work and church activities appears primarily responsible for significant declines in membership growth during the year.
Significant Decline in Convert Baptisms
The number of convert baptisms in 2020 was a mere 125,930 - a stunning 49.4% decrease from the number of convert baptisms reported in 2019. This is the lowest number of convert baptisms reported by the Church since 1975 when there was 95,412 converts baptized. A significant decline in the number of convert baptisms during 2020 was anticipated given significant restrictions with missionary work worldwide. Most mission in the Church reported a large decrease in the number of convert baptisms during 2020, albeit in late 2020 there were also reports of some missions where the number of mostly convert baptisms surpassed the number of baptisms for the same month in 2019. Nevertheless, convert baptisms dramatically decreased in 2020, and this decreased appeared primarily due to the pandemic.
Significant Decline in Annual Children of Record Increase
Children of record are children under age 8 who are added to church records usually shortly after birth. The increase in children of record in 2020 was only 65,440. The most recent year when the annual increase of children of record was approximately this low was 2001 when 69,522 children were added to church records. The last time the Church regularly reported an increase of children of record in the 60,000s was in the early 1970s. Fewer and fewer children have been added to church records since 2012 when there were 122,273 children added to the records. In 2019, the increase in children of record was 94,266 - the first time this statistic was below 100,000 since 2007. However, the dramatic decline of approximately 30,000 in 2020 appears primarily due to delays in blessing children among infants born to church members (myself included - my son was born in August 2020 and we did not do his blessing until February 2021 which is when he was officially added to church records). Many members have chosen to postpone blessing their infant children and adding them to church records during the pandemic until gathering restrictions are relaxed to permit extended family to visit for this ordinance.
Children of record increase has had previous periods of accelerating and decelerating growth. For example, the Church reached an all-time high for increase of children of record in 1982 at 124,000. Annual children of record increase steadily increased from the early 1970s to the early 1980s and then decreased to the 90,000s in the mid to late 1980s, the 70,000s for most years in the 1990s, 80,000s for most years in the early 2000s, and the 90,000s for most years in the mid to late 2000s. It is anticipated that the increase in children of record for 2021 may be much higher than 2020 or previous years if COVID-19 restrictions are relaxed and conditions continue to normalize. However, the Church continues to report decreasing numbers of annual children of record increase. Lower birth rates among North American Latter-day Saints, married members constituting smaller percentages of overall church membership, and difficulties with establishing full-member families outside the United States are some of the primary causes for recent decelerating growth trends with this metric.
Lowest Annual Membership Growth Rate Since 1857
The year 2020 was the year with the slowest membership growth reported by the Church in more than 150 years. The last time the Church reported an annual membership growth rate that was slower than 2020 was in 1857 when negative membership growth occurred (this was during the time of the reformation movement when church leaders advocated re-baptism to recommit to their covenants and to church teachings). Church membership increased by 98,627 in 2020 - a 0.60% increase from 2019. The last time there was an increase of less than 100,000 for total church membership was in 1973 when there was a net increase of 87,750 members. Despite significant decreases in members being added to church records, the number of members removed from church records in 2020 appeared consistent with recent years. The difference between the summation of convert baptisms and new children of record and the actual increase in church membership was 92,743. This statistic has remained consistently around 90,000-120,000 for most years since 2013 and represents the approximate numbers of members removed from church records due to death, excommunication, resignation, or children of record over age 8 who do not get baptized and confirmed as members of the Church. Thus, the pandemic did not appear to significantly change trends with deaths, excommunications, resignations, or removal of unbaptized children of record over age 8 for the year 2020.
Congregational Growth Rate Surpasses Membership Growth Rate
This is a significant development given that the last time congregational growth rates surpassed membership growth rates was in 1998. Low membership growth rates appear primarily responsible for congregational growth rates surpassing membership growth rates. Nevertheless, it is important to note that congregational growth rates did not fall as significantly as membership growth rates during 2020 to the point that the worldwide average number of members per congregation decreased from 535.4 to 535.2. There were significant periods of time in 2020 when the Church organized or discontinued extremely few congregations (primarily from March until August). Approval to organize new wards and branches often takes months, or even years, to complete, and thus many of the congregations created in 2020 were likely planned and approved before the pandemic began. Many of the new congregations organized in 2020 were in the United States. There was a significant deceleration in congregational growth rates in most of Sub-Saharan Africa with a few exceptions (such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo). Nevertheless, congregational growth rates have become more commensurate with membership growth rates for most recent years which suggests improvements in convert retention and member activity in the countries with the most congregations (such as the United States and Brazil). However, compounding convert attrition and member inactivity has plagued membership records for decades in most countries of the world. Although the average ward or branch in the Church has 535 members on its records, most congregations in the Church (prior to the COVID-19 pandemic) had between 100-200 active members.
Full-time Missionary Numbers Significantly Decrease
The Church has reported approximately 65,000-70,000 members serving full-time missions for most years since the end of the "surge" in the double-cohort of full-time missionaries in the early to mid-2010s. The Church reported only 51,819 members serving full-time proselytizing missions as of year-end 2020. The number of full-time missionaries widely vacillated during the year due to temporary releases or early permanent releases of full-time missionaries during the year. Many members have appeared to chose to postpone missionary service until conditions further normalize. Nevertheless, many members continue to begin missionary service, albeit their numbers appear less than normal. This is also a likely metric to see a significant and temporary increase in 2021 if conditions continue to improve.
15 comments:
I am reading the biographies of the new seventy. Elder Dunn was baptized at age 17 in Salt Lake City. He had been born in Tucson.
Elder Kyungu joined the church at 24 or 25. At the time there evidently was only a small branch in Lumbumbashi. That was 1991. So he was baptized 3 or so years after Elder Mutombo, but Elder Mutombo was only 10 when baptized.
Elder Kyungu did not marry until he was 32. It was not for another 6 years he and his wife got sealed in the temple.
Elder Meredith may be the first native of Tennessee called as a general authority. If not ever than at least since the 19th-century. I believe Elder Christopherson lived in Tennessee for a time, but that is not quite the same.
Mentioned this elsewhere here, but the pandemic caused a lot of issues with children of record baptisms. So much so, that the Primary General Presidency all spoke on it to the seventies assembled for a monthly meeting at Church headquarters, these were those that have assignments at church headquarters.
This came out at a stake conference a week or so later, the seventy there had been in that meeting, it is the only reason I know of it.
Apparently a lot of people simply held off the 8-year-old baptisms, but early statements about providing for essential ordinances should have headed this off but those things apparently didn't for whatever reason.
Just heard that it looks like the MTC via technology will be with us likely well into the summer, heard of a US mission call with a home MTC start date of July 6th and the missionary will learn a language
I was so intrigued to learn that 240,000 people joined the Jehovah's Witnesses during the pandemic. It would be interesting to learn what they're doing differently in their outreach efforts: https://www.ksl.com/article/50142959/in-a-year-of-no-knocking-jehovahs-witnesses-focus-on-other-ministering-efforts-amid-pandemic
I’ve enjoyed your blog.
Based on an average annual death rate, shouldn’t there have been approximately 125,000 to 130,000 deaths alone last year in the Church?
It seems like the death rate is significantly lower in the Church. I would like to hear your thoughts. Thanks!
Fisher Indiana Stake was created today. Also Clermont Ward in the Indy West Stake was created from the Brownsburg and Eagle Creek Wards.
Not at all surprised with this virus; of course the lockdowns were going to put a big dent in church growth.
Then again, think of all those protestant & evangelical denominations that fared far worse then we did.
Similar to Blake's comment, I'm confused about this statement in the analysis:
"Thus, the pandemic did not appear to significantly change trends with deaths, excommunications, resignations, or removal of unbaptized children of record over age 8 for the year 2020."
How could the pandemic not significantly change trends with deaths!?!? Seems odd. What is your interpretation of that? Did deaths go up but those other causes for removal go down? Is there a backlog of deaths that aren't being reported in church records because of the pandemic? Are clerks not updating the records of deaths and baptisms and blessings in as timely a manner or something?
Jehovah's Witnesses reported a net decrease in Peak Publishers for 2020 compared to 2019. Witnesses only count active, regularly-proselytizing members in official totals. So with this statistic, Witnesses actually experienced a decline in membership for the year. Witnesses reported a decrease of more than 60,000 converts baptized in 2020 versus 2019. The number of proselytizing hours was also approximately 400 million less in 2020 than in 2019. All these numbers indicate converts baptized per hour is remaining stable for Witnesses.
In The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, the difference between the summation of converts baptized and new children of record and actual net increase in Church membership was the same as for most recent years. This indicates that the trends for member name removal have not appeared to noticeably change for 2020 despite the pandemic. Deaths among Church membership due to COVID-19 appear pretty negligible compared to total Church membership, and these have not appeared to make any noticeable difference in the trends for membership loss.
My branch in Detroit one of the hardest cities of the pandemic only had 1 death. Utah overall had relatively low deaths. The person in my branch who died from the pandemic had not been out to church in over a decade.
It is possible that some recording of deaths and other records has been disrupted by the pandemic. This may be especially true in some Latin American countries where the combination of record keeping having to be filed at the church building and very strict government lock downs may have made upkeeping records very difficult.
There may also be some developing areas where missionary removal has so disrupted record keeping that it will not be until missionaries are fully present that records will be updated. I have no clue though if there is such a place anywhere.
It is also possible that the pandemic slowed down the level of excommunications and that was balanced out by increase of deaths. I do know that sometimes recording of deaths is delayed and then happens in spurts, and some of that record updating of hard to track cases may have been somewhat disrupted by the pandemic. It is really hard to say.
Elder William E. M'Lellin (or McLellin), one of the original Twelve Apostles, was born in Tennessee in 1806. (He may also have been one of the worst apostates the Church ever had.)
http://www.gapages.com/mlellwe1.htm
I haven't found any record of any other general authorities who were native to that state.
Anita- color me skeptical that they actually accomplished this.
I agree with your take, Matt.
In fact Matt nailed it on his comment.
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