Sunday, September 22, 2019
Request for Information/Feedback - Claims that the Church is Not Growing
I am currently writing an essay about common arguments made by Ex-Mormons and Anti-Mormons that the Church is not growing or in decline. If you have heard any of these arguments, please comment below. I want to make sure I am not missing any of the major ones. Thanks!
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82 comments:
Very common is the claim that my generation (millennials) are leaving the church in "droves", which I find hard to believe. "Massive", "EARTH-SHAKING" protests in Salt Lake City where, like, almost a dozen angry less-active school teacher women March against something-something doth not an "Exodus" make. I think Reddit inflates these ideas dramatically. I'll be interested in reading your essay
I listed every iteration of this argument that I've been subjected to over and over again in a blog post a while ago. https://www.christopherrandallnicholson.com/blog/a-response-to-some-oft-repeated-lies-about-the-alleged-decline-of-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints My post was much more sardonic than what you're probably going for, because one of my many flaws is that I have no patience for stupidity, but I hope it's useful anyway.
@Unknown: Don't forget the "mass resignations" of a few dozen people who hadn't been to church in years anyway.
We are growing but I think at a slower rate. I think other growing churches have seen the same trend.
(1) Church growth rate is declining. Therefore if trend continues, it will eventually reach no growth, then decrease in growth.
(2) The church is not growing in developed countries. It is only growing in undeveloped countries. When these countries become developed countries also, they will stop growing. And then the Church as a whole will stop growing.
(2a) Subset of the above: Only the uneducated join the church. As the global population becomes more educated, Church will stop growing.
(3) Church only was growing because of ignorance. The internet makes it so people can access the "truth".
(4) Progress in science is the death of all religion, not just LDS Church.
(5) The younger generation(s) do not join things. Not political parties, not social clubs, and not organized religion. So even if they continue to believe in God, etc. all churches will die.
(6) The Church might continue to grow in terms of absolute numbers, but will decrease in terms of % of total population.
There is also this from 1994. Elder Packer in a meeting with Seminary and Institute people, I was also present. Followed some things that were in the news here earlier that summer.
Not too many days ago, in a moment of great concern over a rapid series of events that demonstrated the challenge of those within the Church who have that feeling of criticism and challenge and apostasy, I had an impression, as revelations are. It was strong and it was clear, because lingering in my mind was: “Why? Why—when we need so much to be united?” And there came the answer: “It is permitted to be so now that the sifting might take place, and it will have negligible effect upon the Church.”
--Religion 370, 471 manual On churchofjesuschrist.org and the Gospel Library under Institute
URL for the above: https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/study/manual/teaching-seminary-preservice-readings-religion-370-471-and-475/the-great-plan-of-happiness?lang=eng
The ones that I have heard about:
Mass resignations (greatly exaggerated and seems to be a primarily American problem)
Zero or negative growth (from people that do not know how to read statistical graphs)
MTC closures reflecting a loss of growth (doesn't add up given the construction of Brazil, Mexico, and Ghana MTCs). On that front, it seems the Church is wanting to do more with less.
Area consolidations reflecting a loss of growth.
Temples only announced to pretend there is growth (even though the requirements for temples are quite stringent).
New stakes and congregations only for window dressing (even though the requirements for stakes have gotten stricter).
Africa and Latin America grow because there's no internet (even though there has been internet for more than a decade there).
These are some which I hear from critics.
Example: a town of ten people had five move-ins one year. The following year the now town of 15 had 7 move-in. And then 10 next year. Even though more people moved in each year the rate of growth went down.
I think we have to admit that the requirements for temples really aren't that stringent anymore. The Winnipeg and Okinawa temples will literally serve one stake and one district each. Several temples have been announced that are clearly motivated by convenience for members and not at all justified by actual membership density.
Convenience is relative. More people die on 10 hour temple trips than 1 hour trips.
Effective is another word for smaller temples in isolated a areas.
I do think many youth of the church fall away. I believe gender dysphoria is a significant part of beliefs and practices nowadays.
Closer temples to remote saints will not only make the trips for affordable and safer. But will allow more time to perform ordanences. The time that was spent traveling will now be used in the House of the Lord. Or allow for trips more often.
Here is one data point that might be useful. The author of "Bridges, Ministering to those who question" He is a past mission president. Here is his statement on page x.
"Our calling was to work with the almost one thousand singles in our stake. (This assignment excluded those in the local single ward. Since they were in other stakes.) About 80 percent of our stake's singles were not attending church."
So it doesn't mean they are leaving the church, but some of them do. A useful book for your research. He did several surveys and talked to many so they could understand what was happening.
I have to admit to skepticism about singles attendance rates. This is even more so when your group excludes those in singles wards. That becomes a multi-level self selection to boost inactivity rates.
Even without excluding those who are actively attending a singles unit there are other issues. In the 19-21 year old frame your exclusion of full time missionaries will make activity rates artificially low.
Also for a large number of reasons those who are active in the Church are more likely to marry. Thus the activity rate of 29-year-old singles is lower than 17 year olds in part because the most active members are usually married by then.
Of course I knew one brother who when he was single showed up at singles activities but not Church but after marriage was at Church every Sunday.
This faithful member blog has some things, the blog is a little widely more read than some but he has some things he's heard about this subject also.
https://mylifebygogogoff.com/2019/07/the-four-reasons-people-leave-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-and-how-to-help-them-come-back.html?fbclid=IwAR3mYQ6Tykzsl8wN1-XNQT9-k6PId6KOOom86PjgJSmLj3W9A_HR1aPDzBE
Someone brought up the subject of Millenials, or young adults, leaving the church.
2019
YSA Wards Opened
Singapore YSA Ward
Salt Lake Pioneer YSA Ward (Spanish)
Show Low Arizona White Mountain YSA Ward
St George Utah Boulder Ridge YSA Ward
Riverton Utah YSA Ward (Spanish)
Far West Missouri YSA Ward
Lehi Utah Crossroads YSA Ward
YSA Wards Closed
Santa Rosa California Redwoods YSA Ward
Anaheim California Cypress Park YSA Ward
Hayward California YSA Ward
Omaha Nebraska Cold Spring YSA Ward
Highland Utah Lone Peak YSA Ward
San Jose California Santa Teresa YSA Ward
Branches Opened
Houston Texas Burnet Bay YSA Branch
Richmond Virginia James River YSA Branch
Waldport Oregon Central Coast YSA Branch
Ronan Montana Mission Valley YSA Branch
Branches Closed
Rockford Illinois YSA Branch
O’Fallon Illinois YSA Branch
Burley Idaho Parke Avenue YSA Branch
Huntsville Texas Heritage YSA Branch
Snowflake Arizona YSA Branch
Firth Idaho Parkside YSA Branch
2018
Wards Opened
Albuquerque New Mexico Paseo Del Norte YSA Ward
Queens New York YSA Ward
San Diego California Cowles Mountain YSA Ward
Bull Run Virginia YSA Ward
Maricopa Arizona YSA Ward
Taylorsville Utah Rio Vista YSA Ward (Spanish)
Middleton Idaho Black Canyon YSA Ward
Shelley Idaho YSA Ward
Wards Closed
Orem Utah YSA 9th Ward
San Diego Utah YSA 1st Ward
Antelope California YSA Ward
Orangevale California Sylvan YSA Ward
Roy Utah Carriage Point YSA Ward
Sandy Utah Canyon Springs YSA Ward
Anchorage Alaska YSA Ward
Carlsbad California YSA Ward
West Jordan UT Mountain View YSA Ward
Cambridge Massachusetts Longfellow Park 1st YSA Ward
San Diego California YSA 2nd Ward
Lakewood California YSA Ward
Wards Downgraded to Branch
O'Fallon Illinois YSA Branch
Branches Opened
Birmingham Alabama YSA Branch
Niceville Florida YSA Branch
Malad Idaho YSA Branch
Australia Gold Coast YSA Branch
Rolla Missouri YSA Branch
Branches Closed
Aurora Colorado Laredo YSA Branch
Albuquerque NM Rivers Edge YSA Branch
Albuquerque NM West Mesa YSA Branch
Silver City New Mexico YSA Branch
Juneau Alaska YSA Branch
Shelley Idaho YSA 1st Branch
Temecula Valley California YSA Branch
Sacramento California American River YSA Branch
Oklahoma City OK YSA Branch
Harlingen Texas YSA Branch
Safford Arizona Kimball YSA Branch
Kearney Nebraska YSA Branch
Ontario California Chaffey YSA Branch
San Antonio Texas Palo Alto YSA Branch
Conover North Carolina Hickory YSA Branch
Shelley Idaho YSA 2nd Branch
Chicago Illinois Hyde Park YSA Branch
Cottonwood Arizona Verde Valley YSA Branch
2019 Summary: 7 wards opened, 6 wards closed, 4 branches opened, 6 branches closed
2019 Net Change: -1 unit
2018 Summary: 8 wards opened, 12 wards closed, 5 branches opened, 18 branches closed
2018 Net Change: -17 units
2 Year Total: -18 units (I would NOT describe that as church GROWTH among Millenials)
College Campus units
2019
Wards opened
Orem Utah YSA 13th Ward
Orem Utah YSA 14th Ward (Spanish)
Provo Utah YSA 73rd Ward
Provo Utah YSA 74th Ward
Provo Utah YSA 75th Ward (Spanish)
Provo Utah YSA 265th Ward
Provo Utah YSA 266th Ward
Orem Utah YSA 20th Ward
Rexburg Idaho YSA 125th Ward
Rexburg Idaho YSA 126th Ward
Rexburg Idaho YSA 127th Ward
Rexburg Utah YSA 128th Ward
Wards closed
Logan Utah YSA 39th Ward
Provo Utah YSA 230th Ward
2018
Wards opened
Rexburg Idaho YSA 113th Ward
Buena Vista Virginia YSA 7th Ward
Logan Utah YSA 53rd Ward
Logan Utah YSA 54th Ward
Rexburg Idaho YSA 118th Ward
Provo Utah YSA 60th Ward
Provo Utah YSA 210th Ward
Rexburg Idaho YSA 124th Ward
Rexburg Idaho YSA 124th Ward
Rexburg Idaho YSA 2nd Ward
Rexburg Idaho YSA 121st Ward
Rexburg Idaho YSA 119th Ward
Rexburg Idaho YSA 122nd Ward
Rexburg Idaho YSA 123rd Ward
Rexburg YSA 120th Ward
Rexburg YSA 114th Ward
Rexburg YSA 115th Ward
Rexburg YSA 116th Ward
Rexburg YSA 117th Ward
Wards closed
Provo Utah YSA 244th Ward
Provo Utah YSA 71st Ward
In my comment about YSA unit openings and closures, I do not include college campus units on the main list. Here are my reasons:
Campus units are solely dependent upon the number of students attending. When BYU, and other schools in predominantly LDS areas increase their enrollment caps, wards are naturally added to accommodate that increase in student body.
Those units are highly transient, the body of membership for each ward turns over every year.
The students attending those units are not in their home area. When students graduate or transfer from those schools, they do not remain in those wards and stakes.
The increase in college campus wards do not account for the decrease in YSA wards in other areas, because college students aren't generally attending a YSA ward prior to enrolling in college. Rather, they are coming directly from their home family ward, after attending high school, or serving a mission.
In my view, increase in college campus wards reflects natural population growth, by birth rate, etc. Whereas the decrease in YSA units in other areas is primarily driven by young adults leaving, or becoming inactive, at a higher rate than converting, becoming more active.
Places of LDS decline:
United States
California -
Membership
2013: 780,200
2018: 761,054
Total Wards and Branches
2005: 1386
2018: 1240
Colorado
Membership
2016: 151,884
2018: 150,958
Wards and Branches
2015: 312
2018: 305
Illinois
Membership is virtually flat for 6 years
2013: 56,932
2017: 57,111
2018: 57,001
Wards and Branches
2005: 131
2018: 121
New York
Wards and Branches
1999: 161
2018: 139
Oregon
Membership is flat for 5 years
2014: 153,226
2017: 153,955
2018: 153,338
Wards and Branches
2008: 306
2016: 311
2018: 305
In Utah, LDS rate of population was .735 in 1999. In 2018 it was .667
Washington
Membership growth was roughly 2% prior to 2013. In the last 2 years it has dropped to nearly flat at about 0.2%
Wards and Branches
2015: 557
2018: 540
Nations that are currently decreasing in either/both reported membership and/or total wards and branches (of the 48 nations that I observe):
Argentina (down more than 120 total units in 12 years)
Australia
Chile (down nearly 400 units in past 20 years)
Colombia
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
France
Germany
Guatemala
Hong Kong
Italy
Japan
Mexico (has lost about 200 total wards and branches in the last 3 years)
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Portugal
Russia
South Korea (Down nearly 80 units over 20 years)
Spain
Sweden
Ukraine
United Kingdom
Uruguay
Venezuela
Another reason for the growth and decline of YSA wards/branches could also be high school graduates entering college also those that get married and enter family wards or those that turn 35 and transfer to Single Adult Wards or family wards (depending on where they live) I kinda see YSA Wards and Branches having the most fluctuation that other Wards and Branches.
One issue with YSA units is that foring them or disbanding then can indicate many things. In some areas they may be disbanded in favor of multiple groups that allow less travel.
Also I know in my stake it has been felt that the policy to not keep the records of most who don't attend the YSA unit to the more local unit creates a situation where the outreach to YSAs is even harder.
Utah has also at times been the state with the fastest growing population in the US. In California much of the decline has been caused by migration.
Also in some places the decision to end language specific units and have a more unified congregation means fewer units but not necessarily less Church attendance.
I live in one of the new wards you mentioned as a "campus YSA ward". Less than 10% of the people in my ward are students. Most are working professionals who live in more stable housing. I think many of those wards were created simply because that is where young people want to be. They dont want to be living at home with few dating options and weak YSA wards and branches. It seems illogical to me to not include those increases with the others.
I never said that convenience isn't a legitimate reason for building temples, but it does not demonstrate growth.
Or stringent requirements for minimum membership numbers.
I think temple building indicates church growth. Factors to consider:
1. Temple going members end up going more, saving time for other activities including fellowhipping members and non-members. Missionary work.
2. Marginal members become inspired to get recommends and do their own sealings and ordinances. Geography has a spiritual, physical, and psychological effect to progress and grow.
3. Non-members are exposed to a new facet of the Gospel and can attend the open house, journalists write articles, public servants become aware, the spirit of Elijah expands...
Win-win-win growth and growth and growth.
The transfer age is 31. Marriage and mission attendance rates detract from YSA units. Beyond this there are many strategies for engagement of YSA, and separate YSA units are not always such. They involve ling distance travel and remove YSA from local units that need their strength. They also inherently are not good at integrating single parents. Single parent YSAs will overall be better integrated in the Church in areas where there are not YSA wards.
There are lots of YSA activities, groups, programs, institute classes and dances held where there are no YSA branches or wards. YSA church participation is not fully covered by YSA wards.
On another note in the last month there have been 4 new Rexburg Idaho YSA wards formed.
YSA growth in Provo or Rexburg or Logan is a decrease for other places. However as I said there are huge numbers of YSA events, activities etc outside of YSA church units. There are also many active YSA members who choose not to attend YSA units, some are single mothers like my step daughter. Others because of transportation issues, enjoying spending Church with parents and siblings, and other issues. A 45 minute or more one way trip for Church is not for everyone.
Peru has had a significant growth in the number of stakes which because of creation criteria is probably the best measure of Church stability growth. Italy and France have also seen increases in the number of stakes. Venezuela has seen total population decrease.
I think the question of growth is often misunderstood. As a member of my stake presidency once pointed out the goal of the Church is not creating more units. It is inviting all on both sides of the veil to come unto Christ through obedience to the laws and ordinances of the gospel.
Building new temples is the only thing that always clearly moves towards this goal and so is the best measure of the growth that matters.
Splitting a ward into multiple branches or creating two wards from 1 creates more time intensive callings which might have the net effect of making it so people have less time to serve in the temple.
I know there was one boundary adjustment in Washington that involved the consolidation of some units that the stake President said was done to allow members more time for community involvement. The process of inviting all to come into Christ does not always involve more Church units especially in areas where transportation access means that putting chapels closer to people will not significantly increase the ability to attend Church.
No need to search for unusual statistics Matt, you've noted the number removed from records at it's highest within the past few years, but convert growth highs are nowhere where they used to be, and converts per missionary are lower than they've ever been. The church seems to be anticipating an anti-surge dealing with missionary work--so maybe the critics see it as a canary in the mine; weak youth = weak church.
Missions and MTCs are closing at a crazy rate: look at these quotes: "What we are doing is building and creating missions to what we expect will be needed after the peak part of the surge. So we anticipate not needing to close any of the missions as we go forward.” Church News, 22 February 2013. From the SL Tribune, "We're projecting out probably within four years [2019]," apostle Jeffrey R. Holland told a radio interviewer, "the base-line number for the missionary force will be something around 100,000." Within the past two years they've closed Chile, Spain, Dominican Republic, some of the Provo MTC and now Guatemala. The first two had gradual deadlines, but DR and Guatemala had very short deadlines. The Provo buildings were empty for quite some time before a decision was made. Either some new policy is in the works, or the church is becoming more realistic number-wise. The church is asking missionaries to not all start at the same time to ensure the MTCs aren't seasonal ghost towns. The church in the past told elders not to delay missions for school, and few parents wants their boy to seem unrighteous, so many parents withhold college aid until their child goes on a mission--so they all start in the summer. I'm not sure if that plea will do much.
It's hard to tell if lack of faith is to blame yet. People usually moved on quietly with their life if they didn't qualify for proselyting. I have a relative who is relieved that he applied before the church required missionaries who didn't qualify to proselyte to be reassigned to a service mission (sm). I don't think he's alone; the church doesn't glamorize sm at all. According to the sm site, the mission is REALLY chosen by your parents and bishop using JustServe based on their opinion of your capabilities (that doesn't sound like loads of fun to me--but some people may not mind people discussing their shortcomings) and may not even deal with helping the church or people (an animal shelter is one of the missions the Ensign listed). You are required to live at home (that may not sit well with some youth); name tags outside the service project or church are forbidden leading to lost teaching opportunities. ERMs transferred to a service mission aren't allowed to date even though regular youth service missionaries can. To top it off "service mission" is a bit of a misnomer--many proselyting missionaries do a substantial amount of service; these are really more work opportunities. The sm handbook has them report to leaders on how they are growing in their capabilities, not how they are blessing people's lives or bringing people closer to Christ. I'm a woman so I'm not compelled to announce personal medical issues to ward members, nor am I drafted to risk my life in a foreign country with no converts to show for it. Consequently we deal with a huge gender disparity--the Deseret News said women outnumber men in the church higher than any other major faith, that means less childhood baptisms. Right now missions are law of Moses-style in nature, and that's a tough sell. To break what you are told is part of the priesthood oath and covenant has serious consequences for men. This isn't a criticism of the church; I'm just stating the reality for a lot of youth.
Gregory--you forget that there's also a lingering mental health crisis, people will take leaps of faith and try new things to relieve their suffering, critics be darned, so the lull in church growth shouldn't be permanent.
Bryan D--good point about the MTCs, but it isn't going back and forth: new one, old one demolished, new, old, it's all about tearing down recently which seems to be a bit of a flag--even if it's not. The biggest concern is that missionary growth is well-below what the church expected. The church is still true even if the youth aren't flourishing. One reason why I brought up the missionaries being a barometer is that enthusiasm over missionary work directly corresponds to seminary. In 2000 Seminary enrollment was 380,386. When Christ raised the bar for missionaries in 2002-2003 enrollment had dropped to around 370,940 and by 2010 it was still stagnant and even dropping, a total of 369,737 for seminary. However shortly after the church opened up more opportunities for youth to serve missions it jumped up to 397,036 enrolled for the 2012-2013 year. By 2016-2017 it didn’t grow nearly as fast, it was 401,734. The church did a study on those who completed the requirements for graduation in the 1950s and found that 87% married in the temple. If a mission looks dumb so does seminary. This is probably why Christ is emphasizing temple work, which many youth are responding well to; changing mission rules isn't in the cards yet.
John Pack Lambert--The singles problem is real, in "Loss of Members spurred LDS singles ward changes" from the Tribune, and "What's in the Leaked Videos of Meetings with Senior LDS Church Leaders," from Deseret News the elders of the church are VERY concerned with singles. There's also Cumorah articles referencing the singles problem.
No need to defend growth tooth and nail people, no one said that the rock rolling down the mountain was prophesied to be a straight drop. Ups and downs are normal just like in the Book of Mormon. This article wasn't a call for "help Matt discredit those excited over church problems," but "if Matt's missing a statistic, help him out."
I appreciate all the comments everyone! This helps with me making sure I am not missing anything.
One thing I wanted to bring up that people do not seem to be paying attention to with church growth trends is the influence of children of record increase on church growth. The Church reached its all-time high for children of record in 1982 of 124,000 and has not surpassed it since in close to 40 years! Moreover, we saw a substantial decline in children of record increase from the late 1980s until the late 1990s when children of record tanked at 69,522 in 2001.
The point I am making is that I think the impact of fewer children of record on church growth trends is pretty significant since these are individuals who are more likely to be long-term active members of the Church AND have families raised in the Church with 3+ children rather than converts. The part I find most concerning with children of record not surpassing the number in 1982 is the significant growth of the Church in the developing world where birth rate are highest. With the Church becoming more international with more members in developing nations, this would suggest that we would see an increase in birth rates (or at least stability). I think this also points out that the Church has struggled to have full-member families on a widespread scale, thereby reducing children of record increase from what would be expected.
Again, I am saving the thorough, comprehensive analysis for later, but I appreciate all of the points!
I am not sure the changes in numbers of children of record always mean what we think they mean. My impression is that at one point they stopped including in this number unbaptized 9 and up.
Also my grandson evidently is a child of record while my granddaughter is not. My grandson was never blessed he just came enough that at some point a record was created. I may have specifically asked a ward clerk to do so.
The thing is my grand son's mother has maybe come to Church 2 times since his birth. She mainly went inactive as a 14 year old mad because branch members refused to even attend her baby shower. My wife was mad enough about how it played out and the unilateral refusal to attend she considering going to a different ward, and only is able to participate in our branch now because most of the white people who perpetrated this exclusivist act are gone.
On the other hand my granddaughter comes to church about as often as my grandson, both about 75% of the time. The difference is that maybe 2 times she came with me and me wife alone and the other times she came with her mother.
I am blanking on his name by there was a bother who died not just historical by sociological studies on the Church in Africa (specifically Ghana and Nigeria) in either the late 1970s or early 1990s. This man was president of the South Africa mission in 1978. E. Da lo e LeBaron might be his name.
He found early 20s a vfc enrage marriage age and low numbers of children for Church members on that continent.
However I think the biggest issue is the change in recording methods.
YSA retention problems may B.c e "real", but that does not mean they are in any way the root cause of the dissolution of specific YSA units.
So much more needs to be done to better minister to singles in the church. We lose 80% of active men in the church post-divorce. Unlike other churches, we offer no divorce or single parent support groups.
Most areas still don't have an established Midsingles program or wards (ages 31-45) after the YSAs (ages 18-30), and the Single Adult Program 31+ or 46+ is non-existent or dismal at best. Over 90% of singles over the age of 30 are inactive.
Just imagine a single guy in his 40s and beyond, never been married, and the stigma and judgment he faces in a family ward. He's seen a creep, pedophile, or someone "with issues". He sits alone, never invited or included in other ward members in the family ward. Basically a lifelong sentence solidarity confinement sitting in the back pew at church...ignored, forgotten.
Church leaders expect singles to stick around in family wards, but often are never given meaningful callings, and have no social activities available except for some random singles potluck in the Relief Society Room with other singles who could be their parents or grandparents. And that's the only opportunity to make friends with other singles or find anyone locally to date. Since singles are not expected to go to bars or clubs to socialize (like the rest of the world), where do LDS Singles go to find other singles friends if there are not meaningful ongoing activities for them?
This means singles in the church become workaholics to fill the time, devote all their attention to their kids (if they are single parents), or become introverted or anti-social to stay in the church... Or they have non-LDS friends or social life outside the church, but have to fight the constant battle to maintain church standards in such environments. Not an easy task that most marrieds don't even think about.
This is why most singles in the church assume they are no singles around in their area (since there's no real singles program) and either assume online dating is the only option, or move to Utah, which undermines to growth and stability of local stakes.
To Eduardo, Re: More Temples = Growth
In some cases, temples may be an indicator of growth, but not all.
As some people have suggested, change in LDS demographics are a result of migration patterns. In many areas, LDS are moving out of urban centers (which tend to be more liberal, politically) and heading to the outer suburbs. Take a look at California. A new temple was recently build in Redlands (an outer suburb of San Bernardino). But there's already an LDS temple in Los Angeles (less than an hour drive away if traffic is good). But go visit the Los Angeles temple any day of the week, any time of day. It's a virtual ghost town. Hardly any cars in the parking lot.
Temples are being built where the members live, but many of the older temples in the larger cities are being abandoned. So some of the newer temples are merely substitutes for older ones.
To John Pack Lambert, Re: More Stakes = Growth
Not so fast. Stakes growth in recent years is actually a very poor indicator of overall growth, because stakes have fewer units in them than they used to. 20 years ago, there were more than 9 units average per stake. As of the most recent report, it's just over 8 units average. I get that one ward per stake doesn't sound like much, but in terms of size, it means stakes are now 12% smaller than they used to be.
It may be pure speculation, but I think LDS leaders are doing this intentionally for a specific reason. Stakes come with a whole slew of leadership positions, especially for Melch. priesthood holders. The GA's understand that men leave the church at a higher rate. I believe they think if they create more leadership opportunities, it will prevent those at risk from going inactive, or leaving altogether. I call it the Jesse Pinkman principle--when you tell a person they're an idiot, they start acting like an idiot, but when a person is made to feel important, like they're in charge of something, they will begin to be important, and take charge of situations. They did something like this for the Aaronic priesthood leadership in my stake when I was that age. Kids going through their teenage rebellious phase, you know what I mean.
To Matt, Re: I want to know what the wicked Exmormons are saying about the church's so-called shrinking into oblivion.
You could just ask some.
The Reddit sub r/Exmormon has nearly 140,000 subscribers. I've done some of my own statistical tracking projects, and talked with many of them in that group. They LOOOOOOOVE to talk about the church shrinking. Every time I make one of my posts on the subject of church statistics, I get a lot of responses. Maybe you aren't aware, but they know who you are over there. They know your blog, and every once in a while even mention it.
If you were to go there and pose a few questions, you might become an instant celebrity.
I mentioned gender dysphoria as a factor of those who go less active or leave the faith. That is small compared to many who feel policies or doctrines towards LGBTQ and others are not right. I know a young lady from California that left activity because of the 2008 initiative there, more or less. I know others disgruntled because of how that played out.
Politically correct causes cause many hard feelings against the Church and its stances. And lead to many not attending or leaving.
Puebla Mexico groundbreaking announced.
You need to look at national census data with up to date membership numbers showing more accuracy as members are self reporting on their own religious affiliation. They are consistently lower than reported numbers. Why? Tonga is a perfect example of inflated numbers. The Church claims a ridiculously high number of members there, yet official census records show much lower.
The Mormon Corridor is not an accurate reflection on the health of the Church. Outside those core states, how healthy is the Church in rest of the US?
Convert numbers vs mid to long term retention needs to be analysed. The average number of individuals per congregation vs the average Sunday attendance reveals more, as does the number of buildings sitting empty.
An increase of temple building isn’t necessarily a sign of substantial growth. Rather it seems to be a desire to increase viable regular attendance amoung more members in the rest of the world outside the Mormon corridor.
A global perspective on actual growth and retention as a whole and amoung specific demographics would be ideal.
Puebla Temple groundbreaking announced for 30 November, artist rendering revealed.
I know Bryan and Eric commented on the groundbreaking arrangements for the Puebla Mexico Temple, but I didn't see the news release in either of their comments. You can find that at the web address below:
https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/groundbreaking-scheduled-for-the-puebla-mexico-temple
My analysis on this development can be found at the following web address:
https://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com/2019/09/breaking-temple-news-church-confirms.html?m=1
And based on my complete reanalysis of what is known and unknown about how soon other temples might have a groundbreaking, I have also posted on that subject:
https://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com/2019/09/updates-made-to-groundbreaking.html?m=1
I am also considering posting a revised analysis on what President Nelson said about new temples and other announcements that will be coming in General Conference (which is now just about 1.5 weeks away).
My thanks to Matt for allowing me to share such updates, and to the rest of you for how your insights help me to keep a proper and correct view of developments discussed here.
Matt,
It is my opinion that the real story about the Church not growing or in decline is not directly due to anything we as a church are, or are not doing. The real story is the growth of secularism throughout the world. I read an article about how the JWs are having a real struggle with proselyting throughout the world and their growth is nearly stagnant. Also, there has been big news recently about how the Exvangelical (anti-evangelicals) movement is growing at it's fastest rate ever. In addition, many have probably read about the major growth of religious "nones." https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/13/us/no-religion-largest-group-first-time-usa-trnd/index.html.
I think any real discussion on why the growth of the church is in decline, has to involve a discussion on what is going on as a trend throughout the world, but is most prevalent right now in western societies.
No, the church is not losing members at a faster rate than we are growing. But, we are growing at the slowest rate since right before World War II. The last 2 years saw growth rate of the church only barely above the growth rate of the world. For most of the last century our growth rate was substantially above the growth rate of the world. Also, there have been a handful of years of negative growth rate, but not in the last century.
1839...-7.95%
1855...-6.51%
1856...-0.15%
1857...-13.53%
During the 1930's it dropped to below 1% a couple of years, but all the rest of our history it has been great than 1%.
The real story is about what is going on in the society as a whole, not what is going on with our message or missionary efforts.
Of course, the Lord knows all this and has the big picture in mind. Maybe we drop to below 1% growth in the coming years, but it will probably just be one blip in the history of the restoration. Just as has occurred in other times...
Anti-Mormons want to believe they are special, but they are not. There is a movement in society causing these effects. It's not something cataclysmic for the church. Despite what the exmormons want everyone to believe.
I do believe that there are credible arguments that could be made that the church in some areas is shrinking. Here in Ontario, there hasn't been a new Stake created in 20+ years, there are fewer congregations, many wards and branches appear to be missing or almost missing entire generations (20-40 years). I'm told that some investigators want to attend our Ward because the branch next to ours does not have any active primary or youth (I haven't been there so I can't say for certain). I believe that there were mass resignations in this area in the last 5-10 years which seem to go in waves. I personally know over a dozen who have done so. The vast majority of those who have left have not resigned and are better represented as less-active/inactive. Aside from nominal membership which may have increased, it would be difficult to find evidence that the church here is not declining or at least stagnating.
I see a lot of comments from the male perspective of YSA wards. Consider the older (28ish+) female that's sitting in a YSA ward. She's the oldest girl there and everyone looks at her like she's done something wrong. Perhaps that's a reason for these women to stop attending YSA wards. Granted... family wards aren't much better, but she still might attend at that different ward to feel more comfortable.
I also wonder if there might be ways to allow forless fixed age transitions from YSA to mid-singles. It requires good mid-singles programs, but these are increasing, although not as fast as would be hoped.
Here in Michigan we have not had a new stake in over 40 years.
My ward has a single man in his 40s as the 2nd Counselor in the Bishopric. He is a great man. His sister, also single and in her 40s, is the Primary President. There is a single sister, also in her 40s who is in the Primary Presidency. Both of these sisters are great. So these are 3 examples here locally that are active, faithfully serving in "more important" callings. Not all is so dismal as you write. However, I do know of many single men that are 40+ that are shunned or don't feel welcome. One in another ward became active after me and the EQP started visiting him. He became the Ward Clerk and helped bring others in his defense situation back into full fellowship.
I believe the new terms must be spoken and not referred to as Mormon anymore but instead Anti-Latter Day Saint and also Ex Latter Day Saint. That is all.
William, I believe your comment is correct as far as the terminology being in line with President Nelson's inspired directive is concerned. At the same time, however, I think if disaffected former members of the Church have united with those who have ill feelings or are otherwise hostile towards the Church for whatever reason, they are not concerned with how to properly label themselves by those guidelines. In fact, I believe that most of them who are that far estranged or have ill feelings towards the Church would probably be quite a bit derisive if any of us who are active in the Church tried to correct that terminology. So I agree in principle but not necessarily in practice in this case. No offense intended here, and I hope none is taken.
@Eric
Some context as far as the Shelley and Firth, Idaho units are concerned:
2019 Branches Closed
Firth Idaho Parkside YSA Branch
2018 Wards Opened
Shelley Idaho YSA Ward
2018 Branches Closed
Shelley Idaho YSA 2nd Branch
Last year, a YSA Stake was created in Idaho Falls, in part due to the number of YSA wards and branches in the area, and in part due to the influx of new students from Eastern Idaho Technical College turning from a tech school to a 2-year college.
http://www.ldsliving.com/Church-Announces-7-New-Stakes-36-New-Stake-Presidents-in-November/s/89861
2 of the units in that new stake are ones I attended 5 and 6 years ago: the Dunbar YSA and the Ammon YSA.
I also attended institute regularly at the stake center adjacent to the IF Temple. At least once (possibly more) the main institute professor, Brother Toone, mentioned how most or a large percentage of those attending institute regularly (and we had a very large institute attendance, filling the main chapel and several of the classrooms) were from the Shelley area.
I knew a lot of the other YSAs from Shelley, attended dances and sports activities there, visited Shelley often for theatrical performances, and dated a girl who's grandma live there.
It's possible that many of those regular attendees from Shelley have grown up and moved on to Mid-Singles. Some of them were the same age as I was at the time I was there (late 20's/early 30's) and have aged out.
At least one of them I see every few months down here in Utah at activities in my current Mid-Singles circles.
Another event that affected several singles from the Idaho Falls area about 5-6 years ago were the so-called "Loony Laws" (basically they were proposed educational referendums that would end up being detrimental to teachers and their salaries). So, several of my teacher friends from the area got out of dodge to find greener pastures (i.e. Utah or elsewhere), one of whom I still see on regular basis.
One other big event that happened in the area in 2014 was that Sony pulled their PlayStation Call Center out to consolidate it with the other one they had in Vegas. This personally affected me, my brother, one of my best friends from the YSA ward, and the 600 other employees then-employed there with Sony (it's basically THE reason I had to move to Utah to find a new job 5 years ago).
In addition, several of my friends who previously lived in that Idaho Falls Stake's current boundaries have moved down here to the Salt Lake or Ogden areas for other types of work or to find a spouse (or both). Several of them have found better jobs here, gotten married, and decided to stay.
So, I'm wondering if the consolidations of those 2 branches in the Shelley/Firth area (and the creation of the new ward) are due to any of those factors I mentioned above, or possibly the new crop of YSAs aren't as active as the group that used to live there, or all of those reasons put together...?
Keep in mind also one more thing:
Shelley and Firth are geographically only 6 miles apart.
It's possible that, with the creation of the new YSA Stake, the leaders just decided to consolidate those close-by branches into one stronger central ward that was slightly closer to the Idaho Falls Temple.
@Eric
A couple of the other new YSA Wards/Branches you mentioned that interest me:
2019 Branches Opened
Ronan Montana Mission Valley YSA Branch
Missoula, Montana has a YSA Ward/Institute of its own (right next to the University of Montana), which I attended right after my mission and before college at BYU Provo.
We had at least one girl attending from Ronan (60 miles away), who I hometaught.
There was also a brother and sister (and possibly others) who came down from St. Ignatius (also in the Mission Valley).
I'm glad to see Ronan and the Mission Valley has its own branch now. Further growth in that part of Montana continues to make me hopeful for a Missoula Temple someday.
2019 YSA Wards Opened
Salt Lake Pioneer YSA Ward (Spanish)
This one's right next to the University of Utah, in a building I attended some Mid-Singles/YSA activities at.
My question is whether it's all just students from the U or U, or are some of the large amount of Spanish-speakers from my old Cannon YSA Ward (on the west side of Salt Lake, south of Rose Park) also attending? My guess is the latter.
2019 YSA Wards Opened
Far West Missouri YSA Ward
Anything having to do with growth in Far West piques my interest.
One last tidbit about all these YSA Wards/Branches being dissolved:
Right after my mission, in my aforementioned Missoula YSA Ward, one of the leaders told me (tongue-in-cheek, of course) that, "The main goal of a YSA Ward/Branch is its own dissolution" (i.e. If everyone in it ends up getting married, then the Ward no longer serves a purpose).
@Eduardo
I agree that having a temple close by geographically can increase activity and temple attendance in so-called "marginal" members.
I appreciate you tackling this question Matt. While some Exmo's hope for a decline and see evidence for it everywhere, the fact is simple that the Church is growing. On the other hand, as much as devout LDS love the theme of the amazing growth of the Church, the simple fact is that the rate at which the Church has grown has slowed dramatically since roughly the advnet of the internet. Baptisms are down, the number of missionaries are down, the number of baptisms per missionary significantly down, increase in the number of children of record is down, % growth year over year is anemic.
The problem is see to be able to truly answer this questions if the lack of full statistical transparency of the Church. We are given some numbers and we have to extrapolate the rest which can lead to very different interpretations depending on what their biases are and what they are trying to prove.
I certainly do not know the hard fast rules of Church stats. Is a child who has been blessed considered a member of record and thus counted in the overall membership figures? If so, then why do we tell children when they are baptized that they are joining the Church when technically they are already considered members? But if they are not in the membership figures until they are baptized then why do exmo's have to request the names of their unbaptized children to be removed?
I've heard that unless there is certain knowledge of a person passing away, their records are kept until they are 110 years old. How many members are 100 to 110 years old?
And while there has always been a significant number of less active members, what IS different is the number of those who were devout that have left the Church in the last 20-30 years. If the Church published the number of those who have requested to have their names removed, or the total number of active temple recommend holders, we'd have a better view of the health of the Church.
Those are just a few examples. I love that you are tackling this questions, not sure there is enough data to draw a conclusion that will satisfy anyone or be seen as undisputed. At least not without more specific transparency on statistics by the church and the rules they follow to arrive and those statistics.
While the overall numbers show growth, the numbers are continuously trending toward shrinking. As growth continues to shrink, eventually it reaches zero, at some point in the future, unless something occurs that reverses the trend. After reaching zero, then an overall number shift in the negative begins. An example of shrinking trends can be found in ward branch growth.
The church has had 4 years where the net increase of units was more than 1,000. Those years were 1979, 1980 (it will be noted those two years immediately followed opening Africa to missionary work), 1992, and 1997. No year since 1997 has been close to 1,000. The 22 year period between 1977 and 1998 - there were only 4 years of less than 500 unit net increase. The single lowest year in that period was 378 in 1983.
However, in the last 20 years (after 1998) there have not been any years with an increase of more than 500, and only 2 years with more than 400. 2005 was the last year of more than 400 increase. And last year, 2018, saw a net increase of only 30.
Currently, this year is on pace for an increase of 340-350 (currently at 287-church leadership historically creates very few new units at the end of the year, during holiday season), which would be a course correction, but at 350, it would still only be the 5th highest year since 2005.
@Melbourne
Speaking of the health of the Church outside of the Western Corridor, Virginia is an interesting example that comes to mind.
One large landmark temple in the area, another smaller one being announced.
A small college (SVU) that, although not officially run by the Church, was set up by members who implemented standards similar to the official church-run schools. That school also draws many from the west who would have otherwise gone to an Idaho or Utah BYU.
23 Stakes in Virginia, 2 of which were created as recently as 3 years ago.
https://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/2016/12/new-stakes-created-in-colorado-honduras.html?m=1
@Wesley
"How many members are 100 to 110 years old?"
One.
My Great Uncle Lloyd:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.idahostatejournal.com/news/local/wyoming-surveyor-dies-at/article_d6d5b8c6-61a5-5726-99ac-d412f5a2a8e2.amp.html
@Wesley
"If the Church published the number of those who have requested to have their names removed, or the total number of active temple recommend holders, we'd have a better view of the health of the Church."
I like that idea of seeing the numbers of active temple recommend holders.
How far is Shelly from Idaho Falls? The consolidations may be that with a YSA stake making it easier to ignore existing stake boundaries they redrew boundaries for fewer wards with more active members per each, and so it no longer made sense to have some of the outlying units.
Compared to most temples in the Eastern United States the Richmond Virginia Temple is large.
@JPL
Shelley is 9 miles from Idaho Falls on a direct hiway.
"The consolidations may be that with a YSA stake making it easier to ignore existing stake boundaries they redrew boundaries for fewer wards with more active members per each, and so it no longer made sense to have some of the outlying units."
That was my guess on the reason for the consolidations as well.
@JPL
Right.
And I meant the Virginia Temple is small in comparison to the Washington DC temple, but obviously larger than say, Raleigh.
Unknown, I have some insight into what you said about YSA women. Firstly, prophets and apostles have told YSA men repeatedly to get serious about the search for an eternal companion, and to not judge YSA women who do not marry, or even regularly date, especially when YSA men fail to ask them out.
But more than that, my own wife attended her family ward before her mission. Just before her departure, a singles' ward had been formed in her stake. But by the time she returned, there had not been enough interest, and that ward had been discontinued. Due to a difficult familial situation (which I won't go into for now) she hated attending her family ward.
So when that Singles' Ward was reinstated, she preferred attending there, and there she remained until she and I were married, at which time she was 30.
Contrast that with me and my siblings. Both my older sister and I took a while to get comfortable with the idea of attending the Singles' Ward (I was particularly more comfortable in the family ward). My younger brother moved into the Singles' ward ASAP after turning 18. And my younger sister attended that ward for only a month or two before going back to the family ward, since she was waiting for a missionary, whom she later married.
My point in mentioning this is to demonstrate that each YSA seems to have markedly different feelings and attitudes towards YSA wards.
So what I'm trying to say is that when it comes to such congregations, the main issue is that it is not a "one size fits all" situation. And for that reason, I think each YSA who might be asked would have a different response about YSA activity levels. But that's just my personal assessment based on the varying circumstances of my wife, my siblings, and myself.
Jonathan, a couple of thoughts on your above replies to Wesley. First, the Church reports regularly on members who are 100 and above, so there are more around than there seem to be, and I have no doubts President Nelson will be one of those.
Secondly, I see a few issues with the Church tracking and publicly releasing the number of active, temple recommend holders.
First, holding a temple recommend includes now a question on the question of whether one considers themselves personally worthy of a recommend. But what happens when the number of such recommend holders is affected by a temporary surrendering thereof at the request of a priesthood leader when transgressions are being dealt with?
And take me personally: I have a valid recommend, but could be essentially considered inactive in the Church due to having been effectively homebound the last 2.5 years in view of ill health. Church activity and temple worthiness figures may, in all such cases, be difficult statistics to measure.
I mean no offense by this, but these are just a few reasons why the Church may never release the statistics on those two metrics.
@James
My comment about my Great Uncle was intended as a joke. I just forgot to put a "winky-face" on it. ;)
About millenials and the Church, a Utah noncommercial FM radio station with a track record of airing things related to everything from dissenters to things questioning policy and doctrine in a slightly negative way, had this on missions
https://www.kuer.org/post/are-millennials-killing-two-year-mormon-mission
I guess one helpful stat about Michigan not getting a new stake in the last 40 years, is that the state has not grown much in overall population, right. Whereas, my home state of Indiana has had positive population growth since the 1990s and has had at least 3-4 new stakes since then. Jobs definitely help bring church growth, for sure. Michigan hopefully will have growth with both, employment and church growth in the positive.
From 2000-2010 Michigan had a net population loss. On the other hand in the late 1990s Michigan had a booming economy and at least some rise in population. I knew some people who at the time analyzed the booming economy was hurting the Church because it was allowing more to move to Utah where they really wanted to be.
Here in metro Detroit Church members tend to be transplants from elsewhere, or at least active church members, much more than the total population. At the same time in general few of the immigrants are Church members, but a higher percentage of Hispanics are Church members in some areas than in the overall population. I don't think that is true in the areas of high Hispanic population but it might be true in places like Sterling Heights where I grew up.
Still to understand metro Detroit you have to realize the charter school I work at now with 424 of 427 students African American is not the highest percentage of African Americans in a school I have seen. I am not exaggerating here. Yet you go 5 miles north from that school and will find a public school with maybe 3 African Americans per class, maybe 1 Asian student per class, maybe 1 Hispanic in every other grade level of 2 to 3 classes and the rest of the students white.
I have to think it causes some people not to come back to my branch that we have no African Americans in any leadership role. I guess normally those conducting the music and playing the piano and Africsn American and about half the time one but almost never both of those blessing the sacrament are African American. Those giving talks are distributed fairly well.
I still cannot understand why we have a branch council with no African Americans. Maybe a little, but I think it boils down to not focusing enough on developing peoples leadership potential.
A few more arguments that I haven't seen mentioned:
1) Abundant reference's by General Authorities in the 80s and 90s to Daniel's dream (about the stone cut out of the mountain without hands that rolls forth to envelope the whole Earth) have all but disappeared.
2) GA's mentioning problems related to rampant growth are rarely, if ever, heard any more.
3) Growth statistics have been removed from General Conference.
Woodchuck, your #3 point is incorrect. It's true that those statistics are no longer read aloud in General Conference, but they are still made available online directly following the Saturday Afternoon Session of each April Conference, and subsequently published in each May Ensign alongside other General Conference coverage. So only the public reading of those statistics over-the-pulpit has been discontinued. That is likely due to the fact that the oral presentation thereof was more a matter of tradition but not an official Church policy. Thanks.
@Matt:
A few of my thoughts/experiences as far as ex-mo/anti-mormon views on the Church not growing (I apologize if this post is long or multiple, but I think some of the examples I have may be illuminating to your research, and helpful to others.):
A lot of the LDS kids I knew growing up in Montana:
They didn't know about religion/doctrine, and they didn't care about religion/doctrine. They showed up to Seminary and Sunday School because their parents made them, some of them smelling strongly of cigarette smoke, and would either fall asleep, make interrupting jokes, or just chat with their friends throughout the whole thing.
In their eyes, Church and Seminary were just some buzzkill that their parents dragged them to growing up, and as soon as they were grown and out of their parent's house, they left the Church to go hunt and fish or snowboard or fourwheel or backpack or listen to alternate rock or whatever.
They never removed their names from the rolls, they just didn't care, so they didn't show up again. At least, not for years until they got civilly married (possibly to a more active member) or their baby needed to be blessed, or their kid baptized. Essentially, they would take a more traditionally stereotypical "Catholic" approach to Church - showing up on Easter and Christmas (if that).
In my experience, a significant amount of people (nominal members of the Church in Montana, Idaho, and Utah included) just don't like being told what to do as far as it would make them have to change their behavior. So they stop going to the place where they get told they need to change and be better people, rather than prioritize their lives on more than just their hobbies (or their immoral activities).
The anti exmos would have you believe that so many people are leaving the Church/going inactive due to doctrinal or Church History issues, but there is a large swathe of the type of people I mentioned above who simply don't care, and haven't put any time in to study those things.
A few more examples from my adult years:
In Idaho Falls, my active roommate, Dan, and I had a downstairs neighbor named Nikki who was a former member.
She was friendly enough, and she liked to come up and debate with Dan and I every once in a while.
She told us she'd left the Church to join a non-denominational "Bible Christianity" Church due to having attended one of their Easter Passion Plays and learning for the first time there that Jesus carried his own cross on his way to Golgotha.
She claimed that we in the LDS Church never taught that (Otherwise, why hadn't she heard of it before?).
We told her we had heard of it many times, and asked her, "Didn't you learn about that in Seminary?"
"Oh, I skipped Seminary! Seminary was boring," came her reply.
Dan and I looked at each other knowingly, and rolled our eyes.
Upon further conversation with her and her husband, it turned out that Preacher Dan (my affectionate nickname for my roommate because of his knowledge of the scriptures) and I could talk circles around them as far as doctrine and scriptural knowledge went.
For instance, I told her that Jesus had once whipped people out of the temple and she thought I was making it up.
Upon talking to her even further, she mentioned that one of her uncles (who was supposedly an active member) had molested her (or attempted to).
So, we got down to the bottom of the issue. She had little knowledge of the doctrine to begin with due to a lack of interest and study when she was a member, then had been offended by the horrifically bad example of a supposedly active member, then had left the Church for another faith, and was now trying to feed us anti videos and debate us about weird-sounding doctrinal issues like Kolob, while still lacking a basic understanding of the scriptures and the teachings of our faith.
The ironic thing to me in all this is that she had finally begun to study LDS Church issues when she joined the non-denominational church, but by then it was the sensational anti-Book-of-Mormon videos or other sensational topics on the internet (or whatever her new pastor was feeding her). Back when she was a teenager asked to do personal study and read the dry, boring scriptures to gain knowledge? "No. That's boring."
Another time in my Singles Ward...
I was a Sunday School teacher (Principles of the Gospel) and a girl was fellowshipping her boyfriend and bringing him to the class.
He brought up at the end of class one day that he'd read in first Nephi that Nephi slew Laban. He said condemningly, "If God commanded Nephi to kill somebody, then that sounds like a hypocritical God to me!"
I was going to talk to him about it, and tell him that it sounded like his issue had less to do with that particular Book of Mormon passage and more to do with understanding the nature of God and building a relationship with Him, but he seemed less interested in getting an answer to his question and more in just spouting anger towards religious topics in general.
I interacted with him a few more times over the next two years.
The girlfriend he had kept breaking up with him, and his interest in the Church seemed to wax and wane in accordance with how much attention she was giving him. I seem to recall he even went so far as to threaten self-harm if she broke up with him again.
He even threatened to punch my roommate if he saw him at Church (Dan, again) because Dan cautioned his girlfriend (rightly so) that this emotionally unstable guy might not be the best choice for her as a boyfriend. (On a side note, Dan could have mopped the floor with this scrawny kid, but that's another story...)
But people kept reaching out to him, being kind and inviting him to things, usually volleyball activities.
One of the last times I interacted with him (he'd been coming to our weekly volleyball activities for a while, by then), he said he wasn't going to be attending Church or activities anymore. His reason? "They're switching over to softball next week, and I like volleyball better."
This was a guy who obviously had his own emotional/mental issues to deal with first before tackling any sort of doctrine.
On that note, here's an interesting recent video from FAIR Mormon about a trend with certain people leaving the Church who also coincidentally have mental/emotional issues (and how to be kind and understanding towards them):
"Barriers to Belief: Mental Distress and Disaffection from the Church - 2018 FairMormon Conference"
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3irFCZPfCnc&list=PLemtIogMiTrII1GRW6pmUmi5DAC3_42DC&index=26&t=0s
Another girl from that Singles' Ward in Idaho:
She was a co-worker of mine who'd been inactive for a long time. She told me at work that she wanted to come back to Church because she'd realized, "Non-Mormon guys are shallow," and she wanted to date guys with better values. I thought that was a good enough reason to at least get started, so I encouraged her to come to Church and participate in our activities and all that. However, I was assigned to Home Teach her at one point (on exchanges) and I felt impressed to warn her not to let her testimony be affected by the actions or bad examples of others, but to develop that personal relationship with God, and to come to Church for the right reasons.
Turns out, soon after she was looked over by some of the single guys she was interested in. I noticed she'd stopped coming and talked to her at work about it one day. Her answer? "I don't think I'm into this religion stuff anymore." (Emphasis on "religion" in a disdainful tone.)
On the mission,
A guy in a big truck came up to my companion and I while we were tracting. He was friendly, and he told us he used to be a member, and but his bishops kept putting him into Singles' Wards, and every time he'd get married and then get divorced, his next bishop would just put him back into a Singles' Ward, and he'd get married and divorced again (this had happened to him three times, and he'd had too many kids by this time to want to repeat the process).
"I needed the Church at one time in my life, but I don't anymore," he told us as he took a long drag off a cigarette.
A companion on my mission:
I had a mission companion (from Sandy, Utah, no less) who "didn't like religion" in his words, and had a self-proclaimed ignorance of the Gospel. He didn't study, he didn't like Seminary or Church (or doing dishes) and hated being on a mission in general (felt like his parents and his girlfriend had forced him into it). He was mostly interested in breaking the rules, mocking those other Elders and Sisters who were actually interested in spreading the Gospel, and was far more interested in secular or immoral topics.
Once at a member missionary dinner, he loudly proclaimed, "I glory in my ignorance of the Gospel!"
A well-studied member-missionary of the ward had a rebuttal for him, "Ya' know, Joseph Smith said, 'No man can be saved in ignorance.'"
That shut him up for a bit.
Luckily, by the end of his mission he'd turned his attitude around mostly (mainly due to his girlfriend back home threatening that she knew what he was up to and would break up with him over it), and he actually started to enjoy the work and dig into it.
I visited him after the mission in Sandy and he seemed to be much happier and doing better. I'm pretty sure he got married in the temple (to someone other than his mission girlfriend).
In the last few years....
Two of my friends (brother and sister) have left the church, arguably over doctrinal issues.
However, there's more to the story.
The sister, unfortunately, had a tragic event in her life, losing a loved one, and without getting into the details, she had a large amount of anxiety over wondering whether she would end up in the same after-death kingdom as this righteous person (worried whether she'd measure up in the final judgment).
Despite members reaching out to her and trying to help her see that if she just continued on diligently, the Lord and His Atonement would make up the difference for any shortcomings she might have, she decided eventually to become an outright atheist, deciding for herself that God and the afterlife didn't exist at all (that put the troubling question in her mind about after-death kingdoms to rest), and that she would just value the time she had here with her loved ones during this temporal existence.
So, on paper, you could say she started out with good intentions, however, in practice she started actively attacking people on their Facebook profiles whenever they'd post anything related to the Church. Then she got into drinking, the polyamory scene, and then she got into the pornography industry.
I bring her up, because she was one of the exmos who tried to vehemently flaunt to me how the Church was supposedly shrinking in the Salt Lake area, and therefore that meant that the Church was outright imploding everywhere. I also bring her up, because she has a history of struggling with general anxiety from a young age, which probably contributed to her strong worries about the afterlife.
Her brother is a slightly different story.
He was my best friend for over a decade, until recently.
He's still single and first started becoming upset/uncomfortable with the Church near the end of college (at BYU Provo) and shortly thereafter. His beef was twofold: one problem he had was that most of his childhood friends had moved on after college, gotten married, gotten jobs far away, etc., and he was still single and had to live at home with his parents for a while and attend a new singles ward full of strangers. Which brings us to his second issue: severe social anxiety. He just doesn't like being around people that much, compounded with his natural introversion, and so, making new friends (even at Church) became an ordeal for him.
And so, out of his discomfort (and his sister leaving the Church), he decided to be "fair" and research the other side of the issue, i.e. the anti-mormon/ex-mormon agenda on the internet.
Lo and behold, he found articles about other people that had also felt uncomfortable at Church, and found some weird things about Joseph Smith or Church History that he didn't like, and used them as excuses to leave a Church that also made him feel uncomfortable socially/emotionally.
His big claims now are that since he doesn't personally feel peace all the time at Church (and because not everyone feels the Holy Ghost the same way all the time), that therefore the Holy Ghost doesn't work right, and therefore isn't true or is "broken" (as some of the exmos like to put it).
One of his big claims right when he decided to leave was that "spiritual peace can be found in any religion or service organization, so therefore the Church of Jesus Christ can't be the one true Church." However, has he actually gone out and personally investigated any of these other religions or joined any of these service groups in order to prove that theory? Of course not. Because his issues are not religious. What holds him back from feeling "peace" in any sort of group is his own emotional/social anxieties, so he avoids any group of strangers like the plague.
One thing he and his brother (another member of his family who's had some struggles with his faith), focused on a few years ago was when the Church published more information about Joseph Smith's use of the Seer Stones than had previously been generally known to the public.
They acted (as some did) like this was some grand bizarre revelation, and that the Church had been trying to cover this stuff up by telling us in Sunday School that Joseph only used the Urim and Thummim to translate the plates.
I wanted to tell them (though they didn't ask me, so I stayed out of the Facebook conversation), that my parents had told me when I was a teenager about Joseph using a Seer Stone and that the Church still had it in their possession and that that info was available to be found by studying Church History. I wanted to tell them that the Church probably just decided now was the right time to bring some of the details of the rest of the story to light, and that before the object was probably to only share the basics of the story as to not make it too complex for those who were just beginning to study the Gospel. The same could be said about the First Vision - there's plenty more to learn about it from different accounts if you study Church History (just listen to the Truman G. Madsen lectures), but we tell the most important parts about it as missionaries in order to keep it simple for new converts. I wanted to tell them that the "how" of how Joseph translated the Book of Mormon was less important than the fact that it was given us by God and living by its teachings improved our lives, but they were more concerned with the shock factor of finding something from Church History that they hadn't heard in Sunday School every week and that sounded weird to them. (Despite the fact that the Old Testament is full of way weirder stuff than a man putting his face in a hat to receive revelations from God, but go figure).
In these last couple of examples, it's the same story of people leaving the Church over some tidbit of information that they hadn't heard before - believing that because they hadn't heard it before, therefore the Church was trying to "hide" it or that some obscure event in Church History somehow was more important than the basics we teach weekly on Sunday. Therefore, they believe they're somehow more intellectual than the "dimwitted and deceived" lay members of the Church. Despite the fact that this stuff was available before the dawn of the internet in books, and if you really wanted to read Lectures on Faith or the Journal of Discourses, you could have, but you might need to go to the library, or Deseret Book, or borrow them from a bookworm member of the ward (or your parents, depending on who you are). And despite the fact that Joseph Smith, Brigham Young and plenty of the other Prophets have repeatedly told us to continually study the gospel and to "seek out the best books" for learning and wisdom. You just have to be careful which sources you're reading and what the agenda is of the person(s) who wrote it. The advent of the internet just made these odd tidbits easier to find, which to me is great, because I love reading the odd things from Church History. To me, these things give the History more humanity and relatability than the cookie-cutter accounts from tracts that we often hear repeated over the pulpit. I suppose not everyone reacts to them in the same way, though.
Another video from FAIR Mormon about members who leave the Church that I found insightful:
"Strengthen Thy Brethren: Bolstering Those in Faith Crisis"
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3dWb4Mu-7Bg&list=PLemtIogMiTrII1GRW6pmUmi5DAC3_42DC&index=6&t=0s
A quote from the above video:
"The problem is not that people study too much, but that they study too little."
In the case of my friend and his sister above, they were emotionally disaffected first, then did a little bit of research on the internet into the other side, found exactly what they were looking for (some weird/hard to swallow "doctrines") and used those as convenient excuses to do what they already wanted to do - that is, leave the Church because they felt uncomfortable there.
I know these examples aren't the supposedly "typical exmo or anti-Mormon," but that's my point. Some exmos would have you believe that there is a typical exmo or anti, when there really isn't - people leave for a myriad of reasons, just like people stay in the Church for a myriad of reason. A lot of these exmos would have you believe that they're all intellectuals who've left the Church, and that the only people who stay in are dimwitted and gullible. My answer to that is, go have a debate with the folks at FAIR Mormon and see how well you fair.
And I know it's not always the case, but so many people (particularly singles) leave due to dissatisfaction with not finding a girlfriend/boyfriend/eternal companion. I wouldn't say our focus on Eternal Marriage is to blame, of course, but sometimes our regular focus on that principle unaccompanied by continual reminders about the worth of souls can help lead to people getting disaffected (as it did in the case of my friend above).
A few positive notes to counterbalance the accounts above:
I agree with @Woodchuck that the 80's and 90's optimism that used to be heard more over the pulpit (particularly when I was a teenager in the late 90's, and when I was in the MTC in 2002), has largely disappeared.
Addressing that, I think we as an LDS culture did get some delusions of grandeur and unrealistic expectations of growth for a while. We had good reason at the time, though, based on how many converts we were getting in the 60's, 70's, 80's, and 90's in Latin America and elsewhere.
Here is a quote (that I was finally able to track down) that I remember being tossed around liberally back in the day:
"Although projections based on current growth rates are usually not precise predictions of the future, such projections do indicate future possibilities. Using past patterns of growth as a baseline, religious sociologist Rodney Stark has projected an LDS population of 265 million by the year 2080. Using this projection, Stark has predicted that the LDS Church will become the next major world religion. If growth rates for the total membership observed between 1980 and 1989 remain constant, the membership will increase to 12 million by the year 2000, to 35 million by 2020, and to 157 million by the mid-twenty-first century (Fig. 2). But some regions are growing faster than others. If regional rates of growth remain constant, growth will be even more dramatic in some areas."
Rodney Stark LDS Church Projections: https://eom.byu.edu/index.php/Vital_Statistics
Obviously, we are at about slightly less than half of where Rodney Stark (any relation to Tony?) predicted we would be in 2020.
I think, as in the biblical times of Joseph in Egypt, we experienced the times of plenty for a while, and now we are in the times of famine, whether we like it or not.
However, another way of looking at it is by the increase in temples since 1998. Less conversions overall, but more temple building/attendance. Quality over quantity, perhaps?
My sister once asked my mother when we were kids whether there would be a lot of people joining the Church or falling away in the last days. My mother diplomatically answered, "Both, dear."
Since then, I've not only searched the scriptures for references to what she was talking about, but observed myself how the Church has faired over the last two to three decades.
Joseph Smith:
“The Standard of Truth has been erected; no unhallowed hand can stop the work from progressing; persecutions may rage, mobs may combine, armies may assemble, calumny may defame, but the truth of God will go forth boldly, nobly, and independent, till it has penetrated every continent, visited every clime, swept every country, and sounded in every ear, till the purposes of God shall be accomplished, and the Great Jehovah shall say the work is done.”
"Brethren I have been very much edified and instructed in your testimonies here tonight, but I want to say to you before the Lord, that you know no more concerning the destinies of this Church and kingdom than a babe upon its mother’s lap. You don’t comprehend it. . . . It is only a little handful of Priesthood you see here tonight, but this Church will [grow until it will] fill North and South America—it will fill the world." (Conference Report, April 1898, p. 57)
Notice that Brother Joseph did not add at the end of either of these quotes, "and everyone will receive and accept the gospel." He essentially said that the Church would fill the whole earth, and that the Gospel would sound in every ear, "till the purposes of God shall be accomplished."
We are already seeing the Church fill the earth (entering into more and more continents/countries as we go along), and slowly (but steadily) sounding in more and more individuals' and people's ears.
2 Nephi 28:
14 "...they have all gone astray save it be a few, who are the humble followers of Christ..."
Matthew 9:
37 Then saith he unto his disciples, The harvest truly is plenteous, but the labourers are few;
38 Pray ye therefore the Lord of the harvest, that he will send forth labourers into his harvest.
Jacob 5:
70 And it came to pass that the Lord of the vineyard sent his servant; and the servant went and did as the Lord had commanded him, and brought other servants; and they were few.
To me, these passages indicate that, although the Church as a whole may go forth "fair as the sun, clear as the moon, and terrible as an army with banners," (because of the Power of the Priesthood, the Gift of the Holy Ghost, Living Prophets and continual Revelation) that does not necessarily mean we will be an overwhelming majority of the population.
I'm reminded of Israel in the Old Testament, a small nation that prospered against larger nations when they were righteous, and fell when they were wicked. The same went for the Nephites in the Book of Mormon in their struggles against the continually more numerous Lamanites.
Personally, I think it's great that we have more members now in 2019 than the 6 we had back in 1830, and I'm reminded of this other scripture:
Matthew 18:
20 For where two or three are gathered together in my name, there am I in the midst of them.
And also of some quotes that I'd heard before (and that I finally found) about missionary work in the Millenium:
Brigham Young:
"When all nations are so subdued to Jesus that every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess, there will still be millions on the earth who will not believe in him; but they will be obliged to acknowledge his kingly government." (Discourses of Brigham Young, p.115)
"In the Millennium men will have the privilege of their own belief, but they will not have the privilege of treating the name and character of Deity as they have done heretofore. No, but every knee shall bow and every tongue confess to the glory of God the Father that Jesus is the Christ." (Discourses of Brigham Young, p.119)
Bruce R. McConkie:
"It follows that missionary work will continue into the Millennium until all who remain are converted." (The Millennial Messiah, pp.651-652)
Other quotes about missionary work in the Millenium:
http://emp.byui.edu/satterfieldb/quotes/millennium/not%20all%20members%20of%20church%20at%20beginning%20of%20millennium.html
Thanks for indulging me in these long comments. One of the exmo/anti agendas, as Matt and others have stated here, is to try and convince us that the Church is shrinking to the point of implosion and so therefore it's not true. Whether or not it's shrinking is beside the point, though. Its growth by percentage is obviously less than it was in previous decades, but something being true has little to do with how many people actually believe it. Look at the time when there was only one or two active members in the land, Mormon & Moroni, and look at their examples of humbly fulfilling their calling (that of preserving, compiling, and burying the plates) and all the good that one or two people have done for this generation.
Seeing why the Church does not grow requires a deeper analysis and in which the church should bleach its reports and expose them to public light.
From my experience in Santiago de Chile since the end of July 1990, I have seen how the decrease has affected the Church, thousands of inactive, baptized who do not know the doctrine, do not go to the temple, do not keep the commandments, etc.
I don't want it to feel like a negative criticism, because I'm objective, I think that in part people leave because they are not interested in being there, they don't have a testimony, the bad example of the baptized, the lies or half truths of the church, see the double discourse of the Church, among other reasons.
Although we must not forget that all religions or sects are in the same situation, they do not grow because people no longer believe or are not interested in religion, I think the Internet has contributed a lot to expose truths to light.
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