Monday, July 31, 2017

LDS Growth in West Africa - Review and Projections

Today I posted an article on cumorah.com that provides a review of LDS growth trends in West Africa and projections for future growth within the coming 15 years. Click here to access the article. Here are some figures from this article that I found particularly interesting:
  • The annual number of convert baptisms has nearly tripled since 2010 from approximately 10,000 in 2010 to 19,993 in 2013 to 23,000 in 2014 and approximately 27,000 in 2016.
  • Membership has increased proportionally throughout the area within the past 20 years (e.g. 57% versus 52% in Nigeria, 29% versus 25% in Ghana, 5% versus 6% in Sierra Leone, 3% versus 4% in Liberia) although Cote d’Ivoire has been an outlier (6% versus 12%). 
  • There are few members and no official church presence in Burkina Faso, Chad, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania, Niger, and Western Sahara. The combined population of these countries as of 2016 was 58.0 million, or 15.8% of the total population of the Africa West Area.
  • Forty-nine percent (47%) of congregations in West Africa operated in Nigeria in 2016, whereas 26% operated in Ghana. The remainder of West African congregations functioned in Cote d’Ivoire (17%), Sierra Leone (5%), Liberia (3%), Togo (2%), Benin (1%), and Senegal (0.1%).
  • In early 2017, the Church reported 340 cities and towns with an official LDS presence including 192 in Nigeria, 91 in Ghana, 41 in Cote d’Ivoire, seven in Sierra Leone, four in Benin, three in Liberia, one in Senegal, and one in Togo. As a whole, the number of cities with an LDS presence in West Africa increased by 233% between 2001 and early 2017.
  • Provided with the range of estimated membership by the year 2030 per low (e.g. 5% for Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone; 7.5% for Liberia; 10% for Cote d’Ivoire, Togo, and Benin) and high (e.g. 10% for Nigeria, Ghana, and Sierra Leone; 15% for Liberia; 20% for Cote d’Ivoire, Togo, and Benin) growth rates given historical growth trends, projected LDS membership by nation for the year 2030 is as follows: Nigeria (300,000-600,000), Ghana (145,000-275,000), Cote d’Ivoire (150,000-500,000), Sierra Leone (35,000-67,000), Liberia (30,000-80,000), Togo (15,000-50,000), Benin (10,000-34,000), Senegal (1,000-2,000), Guinea (1,000-2,000), and Mali (1,000-2,000). 
  • The Church may operate as many as 30 missions in West Africa by 2025 and 37 missions by 2030 given historical growth trends in the number of missions for the region.
  • The Church may operate as many as 264 stakes in Nigeria, 120 stakes in Ghana, 72 stakes in Cote d’Ivoire, eight stakes in Benin, eight stakes in Liberia, eight stakes in Sierra Leone, and eight stakes in Togo by the year 2025 given historical growth trends. 
  • The Church in West Africa may operate as many as 13 temples by the year 2030 if the average temple administers 38 stakes given projected stake growth trends.  
  • The Church will continue to remain a small minority in West Africa as a whole and in individual nations for many decades to come even if high projections for growth rates are maintained due to the comparatively small size of the LDS Church at present. Membership may constitute as high as one percent of the population in a few nations by the 2030s.

2 comments:

James said...

Very interesting indeed, Matt. What interests me most is the prospect for more temples in West Africa. I am sure the Lord will see fit to announce quite a few temples in West Africa in the near future. The more study I do on that subject, the more convinced I am that the Church has only scratched the surface in terms of its presence in West Africa, and I for one hope that the hastening of the work there will involve many temples, both those you mentioned in this post and perhaps quite a few in unexpected places. Thanks for sharing, Matt!

Eduardo Clinch said...

The rather dramatic growth in Cote d'Ivoire has been really refreshing to see, pretty exciting.
I thought growth in Chile back in the 1990s was not only dramatic but sustainable, which disappointedly was not to be. Although the imminent second temple is close to completion, many baptisms never led to a real growth of units as many hoped and West Africa may prove the best of retention and expansion. Other parts of Africa look promising as well, as much of the growth of Christiniaty looks in the near future.
Fascinating to observe.