I have updated my temple prediction map in preparation for General
Conference in early April. One potential new temple location was added
to the map: Freetown, Sierra Leone. The Church recently organized several new congregations in Sierra Leone, including a tenth ward in the Freetown Sierra Leone Stake. Districts in the Freetown and Bo areas also appear likely to become stakes in the near future. Districts in neighboring Liberia also appear likely to become stakes in the next couple years.
My top 10 picks for the most likely temple announcements during the April General Conference are as follows:
- Belém, Brazil
- Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Brasília, Brazil
- Davao, Philippines
- Guam OR Tarawa, Kiribati
- Harare, Zimbabwe
- Lagos, Nigeria
- Managua, Nicaragua
- Puebla, Mexico
- Rogers, Arkansas
47 comments:
I'm not a member of your faith but recently read something about membership in my home city of Auckland that piqued my interest and a few google searches lead me here. First of all, I had no idea that there were that many members or congregations in Auckland and secondly I'm fascinated at (a) how Hamilton's temple came so early in the chronology and (b) that Auckland was home to the first stake outside the US and Canada. I've probably spent way too much time on this (google INTP personality and you might understand!) but I'm curious as to why given the history in Auckland they put the temple in Hamilton (which is thought of as... well the middle of nowhere?!) and what you think the likelihood of an Auckland temple might be? I've seen it mentioned in a few comments on here.
For some reason I get the feeling that nothing will be announced this conference; hopefully I'm wrong. Although I like Belem to get one, I doubt it happens until the Fortaleza Temple's problems are resolved. I also suspect that Belo Horizonte and Brasilia will not be announced until the Rio de Janeiro is well underway. I feel that a second temple in Nigeria would be the strongest candidate, although I think Benin City is more likely than Lagos. I am also inclined to think that a third temple in Oregon would be a likely candidate; however, I think Salem is more centrally located for a new temple district than Eugene. My dark horse would be McAllen, Texas.
Carly,
I'm not an expert in this aspect of church history, but our faith has a long history in Polynesia, especially among the Maori people. I suspect reading this article carefully would help you understand more about the church in New Zealand and perhaps even Auckland:
https://www.lds.org/new-era/1981/06/maori-traditions-and-the-mormon-church?lang=eng
I just got word that when Taiwan has its 20th stake created they will build a temple in Kaohsiung, very amazing stuff
My guess is that the temple being in Hamilton relates to the Maori population distribution. At that point at least 80% of Mormons in New Zealand were Maori. I do think Aukland is likely to get a temple soon. The Hamilton Temple is also closely connected to the Church College of New Zealand which if I understand right was a high school. Although I am not sure how the chronology works. I doubt a temple will be announced for Sierra Leone until we actually see more stakes organized there.
One more note Mexico had a stake before New Zealand although that was the Colonia Juarez stake with many members being Anglos. By the mid-1980s the membership there was about half ethnic Mexican but in the past it was less. I have little indication of what the Anglo percentage is there now. I do know that for a long time Anglo Mormon families in the area told their children to not date ethnic Mexicans which caused much resentment among the ethnic Mexican Church members.von the other hand in my ward here in Michigan almost a quarter of the ward are of ethnic Mexican descent although many only partially and not looking it at all. In the ward that shares our building the executive secratary is a Mexican immigrant in his mid-20s with an Angla wife.
I think Matt's top 10 list is a very good one. I would keep 8 of his 10 in my top-10 list, but would put Auckland NZ and Tooele Utah in my list and take out Guam / Tarawa and Belo Horizonte Brazil.
I would also propose 2 more to add to the list of potential temples: McAllen Texas and Bocolod Philippines.
Unit Update
6 Mar
Ahougnanssou Branch, Cote d'Ivoire Abidjan West Mission (B:8, D:5, S:5)
Bilanga Branch, Kisanga Democratic Republic of the Congo Stake (B:5, W:7)
Golf Branch, Kisanga Democratic Republic of the Congo Stake (B:5, W:7)
Kennedy 2nd Branch, Daloa Cote d'Ivoire District (B:8)
Lobia 2nd Branch, Daloa Cote d'Ivoire District (B:8)
Rate of Unit Creation has broken 13 new Units/week with a net growth of 8.7/week which puts the total number of non sensitive Wards and Branches over 30K in two weeks.
The two new Branches in the Kisanga Stake are both in the Kasumbalesa area which is sufficiently removed from the center of the Stake in a way that I predict it would be beneficial to make it a separate district in the near future.
The Ahougnanssou Branch is in Boake which has 3 branches currently and so also looks poised to become a district.
With the Doala District gaining two branches it looks like its moving toward a possible stake.
Only 2.2% of Districts have more than 10 Branches and 15.1% have 3 or less.
YTD 134(13.4/week*10) +5 - Total 34,289(+2) (Net 87 65%)
Africa 39, 29.1% (+5) - Total 1810 (+5)
Asia 3, 2.2% (0) - Total 934 (0)
America Central 5, 3.7% (0) - Total 3925 (-1)
America North 53, 39.6% (0) - Total 9369 (-2)
America South 8, 6.0% (0) - Total 6340 (0)
Europe 1, 0.7% (0) - Total 1709 (0)
Pacific 7, 5.2% (0) - Total 2737 (0)
Utah & Idaho 18(14), 13.4(10.4)% (0) - Total 6924(5713)(0)
Totals no-sensitive (Net +4)
Areas Temples Miss Stakes Dist Wards Branch Totals
Global 25 149 419 3,187 547 22,640 7,347 34,314
Us/Can 10 81 131 1,607 10 12,621 2,054 16,514
US n/a 73 124 1,559 7 12,284 1,905 15,952
Utah n/a 15 10 579 1 4,714 326 5,645
Canada n/a 8 7 48 3 337 149 552
Out 15 68 288 1,580 537 10,019 5,293 17,800
This article on Church growth in Northern Colorado has a very cool Heat map of Stakes around the world.
http://www.coloradoan.com/story/news/2015/11/24/mormon-church-fort-collins/76270436/
My thoughts on the list.
#1 - Belem, Brazil - the area has seen pretty good growth, and the Church seems more willing to build smaller South American temples where there are smaller church populations (i.e. Barranquilla), seeing how most temple districts in South America usually have over 20 units. In addition, whatever is stonewalling the building of the Fortaleza Brazil Temple, a temple in Belem would be good for these saints.
#2 - Belo Horizonte, Brazil - quite frankly, I don't see this temple coming into fruition for some time. I believe it may happen long after the Rio temple is built, and I would venture to guess, even Brasilia would need to be finished before Belo Horizonte is announced. Not on the list, but I would add Salvador, Brazil to the list as well.
#3 - Brasilia, Brazil - I believe this one is highly likely. The Campinas Brazil Temple houses a pretty large district, and a temple in Brasilia would help reduce that.
#4 - Davao, Philippines - I think Cagayan de Oro is more likely because more of the stakes and districts are on the northern part of the island. Since I factor stakes and districts within 200 miles of a potential temple, a temple placed in Cagayan de Oro would be a more centralized location. For either case, the Zamboaga Philippines Stake would be 200 miles away from either city, but is much closer to Cagayan de Oro. I would also suggest a temple in Bacolod, which has had a few districts upgraded to stakes in recent years.
#5 - Barrigada, Guam/Bairiki, Kiribati - The North Pacific is a tricky one. Guam, NMI, Micronesia, Kiribati, Marshall Is, are all pretty far from their existing temples. I would still consider Bairiki or Barrigada as possible locations. Palikir would be the most central location, but it would not adequately cover the area, because for the Yap Micronesia District, it is faster to fly to Manila than Palikir (don't know about cost).
BAIRIKI KIRIBATI (3,3)
Tarawa Kiribati East Stake (Suva)
Tarawa Kiribati North District (Suva)
Tarawa Kiribati West Stake (Suva)
Kwajalein Marshall Islands District (Laie)
Majuro Marshall Islands Stake (Laie)
Kosrae Micronesia District (Manila)
BARRIGADA GUAM (2,2)
Namoneas Chuuk District (Manila)
Panasang Pohnpei Stake (Manila)
Yap Micronesia District (Manila)
Barrigada Guam Stake (Manila)
(Had to separate the comment)
#6 - Harare, Zimbabwe - I would imagine a temple in Nairobi, Kenya would be announced first. I have heard that there have been issues with severe government dishonesty in Zimbabwe, though I have not heard anything recently.
#7 - Lagos, Nigeria - I seriously believe a temple in Benin City would be more practical. A temple there would strategically divide the temple districts in Nigeria by the river. It is probable that a temple in Benin City would also serve Northern Nigeria (Abuja and Jos). Lagos will probably get their temple some day, but probably not before Benin City.
#8 - Managua, Nicaragua - This one would close the gap between Tegucigalpa and San Jose. It would also make Belize the only Central American country without a temple. The 200 mile range from San Jose barely touches Managua, so I would hope that the temple would be in the extreme eastern part of the city. Places like the Madrid, Guadelupe, Dignidad, or Las Cruces areas are all within 200 miles of San Jose.
#9 - Puebla, Mexico - this is another tricky one. I believe I have heard that the Mexico City Temple is rarely used by those in Mexico City. There are lots of places in Mexico that would be in consideration for smaller temples (like Durban): Cancun, Coatzacoalcos, Juchitan, Poza Rica, Acapulco, Morelia, Queretaro, Aguascalientes, Durango, Culiacan, Cabo San Lucas, Chihuahua, Torreon, Monclova, and Reynosa. Of these, Puebla, Queretaro, Culiacan, and Torreon would be most likely. There is a large section of northern Mexico that is far from a temple, so Culiacan and Torreon would be likely contenders to fill that gap up.
#10 - Rogers, Arkansas - another likely location, though I would say Bentonville is more likely. The Bentonville area is one of few places in the US that are outside 200 miles of their assigned temple. After the Florida Panhandle, this region of Arkansas has the largest cluster of stakes outside 200 miles of their assigned temple (3 stakes).
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS:
Culiacan, Mexico/Torreon, Mexico
Pensacola, Florida or Fort Walton Beach, Florida would close the largest gap of stakes outside 200 miles of their temple (5 stakes). Though, I do feel that a temple in Jacksonville, Florida is more likely.
Tacoma, Washington - especially if there will be a new stake in Enumclaw. A temple in Tacoma would about half the Seattle district. It would serve stakes in southern and eastern Puget Sound areas, as well as Eastern Washington.
Pocatello, Idaho - this area has a very large % of LDS, but there have been several wards discontinued in the area the last several years.
Budapest, Hungary - this would serve Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, the Yugoslavic nations, Greece, Bulgaria, and probably even the Middle East.
Moscow, Russia - given the conflict between Russian separatists and Ukraine, I would say Ukraine would be hesitant about Russians entering Ukraine.
Port Vila, Vanuatu - this temple would merely serve Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, and New Caledonia.
Auckland/Wellington, New Zealand - Auckland has a very large number of members, though I would hesitate because it is a relatively short drive compared to Wellington. A Wellington temple would be a small one, but would cover the southeastern part of the North Island and all of the South Island.
I would not be surprised to see 0-2 temples announced this conference. The temple backlog is much smaller now but with all the temple renovations, missionary numbers, growth in africa, meetinghouse use revaluations, president monson's health, and stake creations there's alot of work to do. Would not be suprised if new temple announcements wait until October.
When I was living in Delhi in 2012, the Mission President showed me a piece of property in Vasant Vihar that the Church had just purchased to build a temple/mission office. Although there are two stakes in the south, the church is Delhi is very close to becoming a stake. I wonder if they will wait until that stake is formed and build the first Indian temple in New Delhi (as it is more central and reachable for the members throughout South Asia.
The Heughs Canyon Ward of the Salt Lake Cottonwood Stake was just discontinued and merged into Cottonwood Fifth and First Wards.
I think a Lehi and/or Layton Temple will be announced very soon - especially Lehi, where the area is growing rapidly.
Other areas around the country - Bentonville, AR; Jacksonville, FL.
Around the world: Managua, Nicaragua
I still think a temple in Richmond, Virginia is overdue but I think the Church will and see how the Philadelphia Temple affects attendance at the DC Temple. Same with Colorado Springs - enough stakes for a temple, but not until after the Fort Collins, CO temple opens.
Cleveland Ohio Temple
7 Stakes
Toledo Ohio Stake
Cleveland Ohio Stake
Kirtland Ohio Stake
Akron Ohio Stake
Youngstown Ohio Stake
Pittsburgh Pennsylvania Stake
Pittsburgh Pennsylvania North Stake
Richmond Virginia Temple
12 Stakes
Richmond Virginia Stake
Richmond Virginia Chesterfield Stake
Richmond Virginia Midlothian Stake
Waynesboro Virginia Stake
Fredericksburg Virginia Stake
Buena Vista Virginia YSA Stake
Buena Vista Virginia Stake
Roanoke Virginia Stake
Newport News Virginia Stake
Cheasapake Virginia Stake
Virginia Beach Virginia Stake
Pembroke Virginia Stake
(More to be researched)
When I lived in Pocatello about 12 years ago we were told that we wouldn't be getting a temple unless we started going to the temple more. We were told that despite being somewhat close to two temples Pocatello had the lowest temple activity rate and the lowest temple recommend holders per active members in the USA. That had to change before a temple would be considered.
Carly: thanks for coming to this site! I have known some Kiwis, among them Maori, who are faithful LDS. The story (based on true accounts) is that a powerful chief had a dream that two representatives of God would come to them and use the sign of the square. Two elders came and that is how we baptize: raising a hand with open palm in the air. Those missionaries baptized many and thus it began strongly in New Zealand, in the native areas more than Western. Modernly many Polynesians immigrate to New Zealand which further bolsters the faith.
Also, the Book of Mormon resonates with many natives and islanders. They believe it speaks the Lord's words specifically to them.
Yes temple attendance and numbers of temple recommend holders are the major factors in whether an area gets a temple at a particular time or not. Other things like full-time tithe-paying and even family history work also factor in, but it's more temple attendance and tithe-paying, stronger indicators of real growth, that factor into when to announce a temple for an area.
We were told it was heavy use of the Provo Temple that along with the old Tabernacle being such a landmark, led to the decisions associated with the announcement of the Provo City Center Temple. When it opens next week it could be very busy, over 1k marriages scheduled between opening day next Tuesday and the end of September this year already.
Sessions will run hourly from 7am-7pm with additional sessions possible if there are still people waiting to go into a session after that one goes. That next one would run at 8pm, they can only run once an hour due to the layout of the rooms in the temple. If every session filled to capacity, that would mean some 1100 endowments a day at full capacity, once the novelty fades though I think we will see less, on account of how most temples even here in Utah have slow periods during the midday hours.
I came late to this discussion. I have given my general conference predictions a thorough going over and have posted them on my blog. For the first time, I included my (somewhat) educated guess as to what the statistics at the end of last year were, and, based on research done and comments made here, have also for the first time included my guesses as to what new temples will be announced. I won't be surprised if no new temples are announced, but won't be surprised either if several new temples are announced. I also did better research on when the general authority seventies have spoken in past general conferences. I also included for the first time the change in speaker order in the Saturday Morning and Sunday Afternoon Sessions, given what has happened with that in the past years. This conference prediction is by far the most thought out and researched one I have ever done, and you can find them all at: http://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com/2016/03/general-conference-predictions.html. Enjoy, and please comment there to tell me what you think.
Saw those other temple predictions. Some observations.
Arizona. Elder Walker said just before he was released/made emeritus that Arizona was 'well stocked' with temples, the three in the Phoenix area, Tucson, Gila Valley, and Snowflake being what's there now.
Las Vegas. Likely not Henderson, it's very close to the present temple at the end of Bonanza Road. If a 2nd Las Vegas temple were to be built I would think it would be on the west side, likely north of Summerlin Parkway and west of Rainbow/US-95.
American Samoa is not likely, although that was the original announced site for the one at Pesega now. Not really enough growth to justify a 2nd temple in teh islands yet.
Long Beach California, not quite yet, it's not that far over for anyone in that area to go to either Los Angeles or Newport Beach, even given the notoriety of I-405 traffic.
Layton and Lehi/Saratoga Springs/Eagle Mountain. Layton would be west of I-15 on account of the air base to the east and north of the city. while it's not required to have a tall spire on a temple, to properly do one would require it to be west of the freeway and north of a certain point to avoid air base flights. As to north Utah County, some I've talked to agree that it's either west Lehi or the Saratoga Springs/Eagle Mountain area.
DFW. mpt qiote uet. but Houston is reported to, based on a news story about President Nelson's visit there recently, has 80k members and the growth is largely north and west. However, Katy is near SH-99 and I-10, and SH-99 also crosses the road the present temple is on, Champion Forest Road, that segment having opened last month. I'm thinking more southwest, along the US-59 (now also I-69) area, no further north than Westpark Tollway but closer in than the eventual SH-99 alignment but probably not much east of SH-6. Northeast near also I-69/US-59 is also a possibility, also north of Beltway 8/Sam Houston Tollway and north of I-10. South of I-10 is the ship channel and all the industrial areas and all the problems associated with those areas.
Coloradio Springs. Not yet, still have to gauge impacts of Fort Collins opening later this year.
Philippines: The present Manila Temple is actually already in Quezon City or very close to it. It also overlooks the Marikina Valley. Southwest Metro Manila, maybe, but north Manila has problems getting to Quezon City due to poor freeway access which is soon to change as massive projects are underway to connect the NLEX to the SLEX and put in a new east/west freeway too, the east/west route is nearer completion than the north/south connector.
Besides, Urdaneta is nowhere near starting yet, and a site is not known although I've persistently heard MacArthur Highway south of the city.
Paraguay, maybe, based on transportation factors, only about a handful of stakes otherwise.
The rest, probably not quite yet, a couple areas need to have a stake first, from what I understand, you have to have a stake to have a temple, and while Ukraine had its temple announcement before the stake was organized, by the time it was built the stake had been organized.
Appreciate the feedback, though I wish it had come on my actual blog. As I said in response to a comment on my blog, there are several factors influencing the particular choices I have made. Also, let the record show that when I make general conference predictions (at least where speakers and changes in Church leadership are concerned), my accuracy rate tends to hover around 60-80%. You can read more of my thoughts by visiting the web address above, and I would prefer that any future conversation regarding my predictions take place on my blog, so that we might leave this space on Matt's blogs for comments about his predictions, and to enable more traffic on my blog, which is, as yet, not widely read but does cover my take on all facets of Church news and events. In one of my previous posts, I gave my educated guess as to who will preside over each temple-related event taking place this year. Since President Eyring was assigned to the Fiji rededication, it is my prediction that President Dieter F. Uchtdorf will preside at the Provo City Center temple this Sunday. I also have given my take on who among the general authorities might preside at and attend other temple-related events. You can find that post here: http://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com/2016/02/major-temple-newstemple-progress.html. As always, enjoy!
@soc. man I am - In which stake in Pocatello did you live?
I live in the Highland stake for a short time and then the West Stake for about three years.
James Anderson, the comment about a Layton Temple needing to be in the west due to flight patterns from Hill Air Force Base doesn't make sense. The flight patterns are laid out on page 18-19 of this document: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/enviro/Airspace_EA.pdf
Having grown up under those flight paths, I loved hearing the roar of the engines and miss them. Affectionately, they are known as the sound of freedom. Now, as for a temple in the area, that would be amazing. There are many stakes that would be designated to be part of the district. My parents, along with quite a few stakes in Layton have been moved from the Ogden Temple District to the Bountiful Temple District. It would be great for them to have their own temple. That has been thought about for many years.
The flight paths would make it more reasonable for the temple to be placed in the eastern area of the Layton/Kaysville area. With the jets heading out to the west over the lake, they are flying over the western half of Layton and Syracuse. The east has a few great areas that would lead to a gorgeous view of the valley from the temple. Often temples are built on a rise in geography. This leads the temple to be a "beacon on a hill." There are two (maybe 3) areas in east Layton that are possible temple sites. One is off Oak Hills Drive in the southeast and the other being just to the south of Cherry Lane and west of Highway 89. Both areas are easily reached via Highway 89. The Oak Hills Drive is the closest to I-15 with the Layton Parkway Freeway exit not far from the area.
Again, my parents would be thrilled with either as they live within a few minutes of both these pieces of land.
There are also a few great areas in Kaysville for a temple. Also, the 2 sites in Layton mentioned above and the sites in Kaysville would be outside the area of noise concern from the flight patterns, as shown on the last page of the document I referenced above.
Another concern about a temple in the western area of northern Davis County would be the water table. Because of the Great Salt Lake and the western areas being near water level, there is a higher water table there then would probably allow for a temple with deeper foundations and basements or underground parking. Some homes in the area do not have basements due to the water table. (This is currently less of a concern due to the shrinking lake, but is a factor nonetheless.)
I can see a temple in the area in the future due to the number of stakes, higher temple attendance and the strength of the stakes. However, I predict this is still a few (as many as a dozen) years away. There are other areas of the world and even Utah that would be higher on the priority list. Lehi and Tooele come to mind first, with Price as a possible site before Layton.
In the next few conferences I could see temple announcements for Brazil, Philippines, Jacksonville Florida, Rogers/Bentonville Arkansas, Houston Texas and 1 or more in Africa (Nigeria, DR Congo or Zimbabwe). Also, Singapore and India are possibilities. It would be fantastic to hear and announcement for a Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Temple (but this is still perhaps a dozen years away).
With the creation of a district in Irkutsk, that increases the possibility of a temple in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. I don't know for certain, but a temple in Ulaanbaatar would serve roughly 1 stake and 4 districts.
In addition, the new district in Irkutsk makes (correct me if I'm wrong) Bulgaria and Central Eurasia the only missions without a stake or district in its boundaries.
In addition to the usual info some interesting developments in the Pacific area.
Church Launches Papua New Guinea Mormon Newsroom Website
http://www.mormonnewsroompg.org/article/church-launches-papua-new-guinea-mormon-newsroom-website
Group on 'Ata
http://www.mormonnewsroom.org.nz/article/%C2%A0tonga-prince-and-latter-day-saints-journey-together
Musical Outreach in the UK
http://www.lds.org.uk/mormon-missionary-choir-performs-at-historic-venues-for-easter
And the Virtula Hallelujah Chorus makes WaPo
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2016/03/15/watch-singers-all-over-the-world-join-in-hallelujah-in-this-impressive-mormon-video/
Unit Update
31 Jan
Gressier Branch, Carrefour Haiti Stake (B:1, W,:7)
6 Mar
Villa Hermosa Ward, Quetzaltenango Guatemala West Stake (B:1, W:10)
13 Mar
Irkutsk Russia District (B:4)
Angarsk Branch
Irkutsk Branch
Irkutsk Russia District Branch (new)
Ulan-Ude Branch
Empire YSA Ward, Gilbert Arizona YSA Stake (W:10)
Irkutsk Russia District Branch, Irkutsk Russia District (B:4)
Mpaka 2nd Branch, Pointe-Noire Republic of the Congo District (B:5)
Piramides Ward, Querétaro México El Sol Stake (W:6)
Pole Canyon Ward, Erda Utah Stake (W:7)
Ramsey Ward, Northampton England Stake (W:8)
Rockwood Ward, Stansbury Park Utah Stake (W:9)
Rocky Ridge Ward, Calgary Alberta West Stake (B:2, W:8)
San Jose de Iturbide Branch, Querétaro México Stake (B:2, W:8)
Serenity Hills Ward, St George Utah Boulder Ridge Stake (W:8)
Torrentes Ward, Veracruz México Stake (W:9)
Wentzville Ward, St Louis Missouri North Stake (B:2, W:11)
YTD 149(13.5/week*11) +15 - Total 34,304(+5) (Net 92 65%)
Africa 40, 26.8% (+1) - Total 1811 (+1)
Asia 3, 2.0% (0) - Total 934 (0)
America Central 5, 3.4% (0) - Total 3930 (+5)
America North 56, 37.6% (0) - Total 9372 (+3)
America South 8, 5.4% (0) - Total 6340 (0)
Europe 4, 2.7% (+3) - Total 1712 (+3)
Pacific 7, 4.7% (0) - Total 2737 (0)
Utah & Idaho 21(17), 14.1(11.4)% (0) - Total 6927(5716)(+3)
Totals no-sensitive (Net +11)
Areas Temples Miss Stakes Dist Wards Branch Totals
Global 25 149 419 3,187 547 22,651 7,347 34,325
Us/Can 10 81 131 1,607 10 12,627 2,054 16,520
US n/a 73 124 1,559 7 12,289 1,905 15,957
Utah n/a 15 10 579 1 4,717 326 5,648
Canada n/a 8 7 48 3 337 149 553
Out 15 68 288 1,580 537 10,024 5,293 17,805
Ryan Searcy----add the Athens Greece mission to your list. You'd think after so many years that it would have a district by now, but the unfortunately the church has been relatively unsuccessful there.
The Cyprus Nicosia District pertains to the Greece Athens Mission.
In addition to the Bulgaria Sofia and Central Eurasian Missions, the Ukraine L'viv Mission has no stakes or districts under its jurisdiction. I suppose you could also include the Utah Salt Lake City Temple Square and Wyoming Mormon Trails Missions as well.
I forgot about the L'viv Mission. If you want to be very specific, you can add the Illinois Nauvoo Mission.
I guess two of the following: Mexico city, brazil, new zealand, and phillipeans.
If a temple comes to Richmond or Williamsburg virtually everybody in the Fredericksburg stake would go there instead of DC. We are immediately north of the Richmond stake and travel to likely places would be much less in time then going around DC and the major traffic jam to our north. But for some reason Fredericksburg is never on anybody's list for a potential Richmond temple.
If you are going to add the Illinois Nauvoo Mission. You then need to add the Salt Lake Temple Square Mission and the Wyoming Mormon Trail Mission. As for Nauvoo--the stake center for the Nauvoo Illinois Stake is inside the Illinois Nauvoo Mission, but the stae extends well beyond the mission.
The think is the Church has 4 stakes in Zimbabwe with another in Zambia, and only 3 in Kenya and Uganda combined. So Zimbabwe has more stakes. If corruption kept the Church from building temples, about half the temples would never have been built.
I am encouraged to see a new ward in England. The Church has struggled to see much growth there in the last few years. It is a country with a growing rate of secularism, combined with large number of Muslim immigrants who the Church has yet to find an effective way to do missionary outreach to and in some places there seems to be lots of hesitancy to reach out to them.
There are some prominent members in the LDS Church in the US who come from Muslim backgrounds, such as the family of Abe Mills who is a member of Jericho Road (his parents were Muslim before joining the Church, his name is actually Abdullah. His dad was a bishop in St. Louis and his parents were missionaries in Sri Lanka). Another one is WInston Wilkerson who was a BYU law professor, member of the Salt Lake County Council and head of Civil Rights in the US Health and Human Services Department when Church member Michael Leavitt was secretary of that department. Although to be fair in these cases, as well as in the case of Ahmed Corbitt, we are dealing with people of African-American background who then converted to Islam (in Corbitt's case I think his parents went back to being Christians before they joined the LDS church when he was about 18.)
A new ward in the Erda Stake shows real growth in Tooelle County, which may indicate a temple announcement for there could come in the near future.
There are some members of the LDS Church in the US with Orthodox Church backgrounds, such as Alonzo Gaskill who is a BYU religion professor. I wonder if sending someone of such a background to preside over the Greek mission would help jumpstart things.
On the other hand Utah has a sizeable ethnic Greek population, but as far as I have been able to tell there has been little progress in converting them to the LDS Church. On the other hand among Utah's ethnic Japanese population the Church has seen a lot of success.
At the dedication of the Orlando Florida Temple - 9 October 1994 - Pres. Hinckley (then a counselor to Pres. Hunter) stated that the Church already owned property designated for a Temple in Ocala, Florida - and that it would also build a Temple in a place yet to be determined near Miami, Florida. The Fort Lauderdale Temple was announced 3 October 2009 and dedicated 4 May 2014.
With the two new dedication dates just announced, there will only be 3 temples under construction in the US at the end of this year, and they may all be completed a year later. Only one is still in Announced status elsewhere in North America, two if you include Haiti. I would say the odds of having new temples announced in the US are very high. Don't you agree?
Geographically I think it was the centre of the mission at the time. The Church is now expending a significant amount of resources to repurpose the former campus of the Church College of New Zealand including a new unique oversized Stake Centre, a Church History Library, renovated road approaching the Temple, a legacy Park and much more. Visit www.ldschurch.org.nz and look at the Temple View Project Page for details.
Auckland now has 14 Stakes with a couple more North of there adding to 16 that would sustain a new Temple. The Church had or may still have resource consent for the Temple in Manukau situated between the Stake Centre and MTC completed in 2010. The original consent for all three buildings were granted in 2006, and now that the local council who granted it no longer exists, I presume a new consent process will be needed.
Looking at the returns on the NZ charities page, you can see the Church has been transferring large sums for a couple of years now to fund new builds and more specifically the Temple View Project.
I personally believe that the Hamilton Temple will be renovated before Manukau is announced. Any other temples that might be renovated? There are a few still from the austere 80's that need a refresh.
Word on the street is that Manukau City, Wellington and Christchurch were provisionally approved my President Hinckley awaiting further growth to sustain four temples.
I believe that the Temple View project including new residential developments will boost the membership in the immediate vicinity to ensure that Temple is well supported locally before splitting the district.
There is a cultural association with being Greek and Orthodox. It's tough to break that bond.
I have compiled a list of all 150 operating temples with their dimensions divided by the number of stakes and districts (I counted districts as half a stake).
Based on that, I found that the Lima Peru temple has the lowest dimensions per stake (slightly over 100 sq ft per stake) and Nauvoo the highest (10800 sqft per stake).
The temple with the lowest dimensions per stake with no temple announced is Aba Nigeria (271). Second is Buenos Aires (313).
Columbus OH (669) is the highest American temple on the list.
If a Virginia temple is announced it will probably go in SVU as it would be closer for the WV stakes to go to, while not dampening the traffic too much for DC (3721).
The most likely temple east of the Rockies will probably be that Virginia temple or a NW Arkansas temple as OK (771) could use some more space.
Northern California is more probable (Redding area) as Sacramento (886) is also relatively small.
Down in SoCal they might renovate Redlands (865) and Newport Beach (1125) to make them bigger. LA and SD (4887 and 4000 respectively) are just too big.
Monterrey and Guadalajara (532 and 455 respectively) are tiny for the stakes they cover. Mexico City (1317) though with a huge temple district, its temple is equally huge.
Merida (764) also is preety small.
Probable Mexican temple sites include Torreon, Culiacan, Queretaro, Puebla, and Cancun, in that order.
To be continued.
Further south, Managua is pretty high on my list as Tegucigalpa (705) is small. Another temple in Guatemala is probable too or even San Pedro Sula HN.
In South America there are plenty of places to build. First on my list is Southern Argentina as Buenos Aires (313) is TINY. Porto Alegre (404) might be made bigger as well as Montevideo (532)
Asuncion (465) being small and 6 hours away to Ciudad del Este might necesitate a temple out there.
Recife (586) has a big district. Building a temple in Salvador might calm things down a bit.
A fourth temple in Peru is badly needed, or at least a major renovation to Lima (122). My guess? Cuzco, or Iquitos.
A temple could also be built in Antofagasta to calm down Santiago (243).
In Africa there will be a second temple or even a third in Nigeria soon. Lagos and Benin City will get them. Aba (271) is the smallest ratio where no temples are announced or under construction. I wouldn't be surprised if a second Ghana temple were announced soon. Accra (432) is small.
Nairobi is the dark horse pick. Johannesburg (315) has two temples under construction within its district (the only temple to hold that distinction).
To be continued
In Europe, the only feasible short term option is Vienna or Budapest. Both German temples are being renovated, and both are small (Frankfurt 1125 and Freiberg 1410). A temple in that area would service SE Europe better. On location, I am leaning Budapest.
The UK might get a third temple in the Midlands region. London (1778) is the only other European temple with less than 2000 sqft per stake with no temple under construction within the district.
Moscow is longer term. There are stakes but they are too far apart.
I don't see a new temple in Asia except for perhaps southern Taiwan as Taipei (615) is small. Hong Kong (661) has Bangkok under construction.
In the Phillipines more temples are BADLY needed. Both Cebu and Manila are TINY (564 and 312 respectively). One temple in the south and another in the north.
Brisbane (856) needs to be made bigger.
To be concluded
Last but not least the Intermountain West. It appears that in this region 2000 sqft per stake is the magic number for further temple building give or take.
Here is the current order:
Boise 1197 (Meridian)
Monticello 1600
Snowflake 1691
Oquirrh Mtn 1765
Ogden 1781
Mt Timp 1949
Idaho Falls 2004
Draper 2010
Twin Falls 2080
Bountiful 2122
Jordan River 2245
St George 2292 (Cedar City)
Rexburg 2300
Provo 2618 (Pre Provo Center around 2000)
Lehi and Layton are possibilities here as is Pocatello.
Forgot Texas too. Probable lower Rio Grande Valley temple in the offing as San Antonio (933) is getting busier. Austin might be another option in the medium term.
The large expanse of green between the Stake Centre to the left and the MTC to the right was granted resource consent in 2006 and had the preparatory earth works completed at the same time as the two other buildings were being constructed. Its difficult to see in this picture, but there is a gentle rise in the land, works completed consisted of removing the top of the the "hill", compressing the earth and inserting something to do with water before returning the earth back on top and leveling out on the top.
The picture is hosted on my picasweb album.
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-jKYz0d-lBAU/VvrGi9NSM2I/AAAAAAAAAXo/NWvIqowqsJwPKh_4Rm2JHEcQ9ZC_zAq_wCCo/s800-Ic42/Manukau%2BTemple%2Bsite.jpg
The site overlooks the Manukau City town centre, the main motorway from Auckland to Hamilton and close to the Auckland Airport giving this potential temple high visibility. Some slight complications with the site though, there is a Military Redoubt directly behind the Temple site that bites into the Church property slightly, the plans I have seen have stressed that there is still an uninterrupted line of site out from the Redoubt past the proposed temple.
it is fun to guess which temples are going to be next based on this.
In 2016, the Church is has experienced enormous growth of new stakes so far. As a result, my bet is that more new temples will be announced in October General Conference. Here are my top 10 candidates (in order):
1. Manuga, Nicaragua -- One of only two Central American countries to not have a temple. Large and growing DS population in and around Manuga. Difficult to travel to other neighboring countries to attend the temple.
2. Brasilia, Brasil -- Huge LDS population and large growth. Located hundreds of miles from nearest LDS temple in Brasil. Strategically located to serve remote areas of Brasil.
3. Layton, Utah - Large population and Church growth in Davis County, especially in Northwest Davis County areas. Layton fast approaching the population and LDS density of St. George. Strategically located between busy Bountiful and Ogden temple areas.
4. Lehi, Utah --- Large population growth in Northern Utah county areas both in the East and the West.
5. Nairobi, Kenya -- Large Church growth in East Africa. Very far away from new temples in Southern and Western areas of Africa.
6. Aukland, New Zealand -- Large LDS population that is growing fast. Difficult to travel to Hamilton temple.
7. Davo, Phillipines -- Large LDS population. Difficult to travel to LDS temples on other islands.
8. Hyderabad, India -- Growing and very faithful LDS population. Almost impossible for saints to travel to any other temple unless they are wealthy -- and many are not. Would serve parts of Middle East as well.
9. Port-Au-Prince, Paupa New Guinea -- Huge LDS population. Temple attendance for members is a huge sacrifice.
10. Salvador, Brasil -- Large LDS population. located hundreds of miles from nearest temple.
My guess is that all 10 of the above will be announced in the next 5 years if not much sooner.
I would also love to add Moscow, Russia to this "top 10" list, but I don't see it happening until we get more growth in that area -- i.e., at least 2 full stakes in an around the Moscow area. As of right now, membership in Russia is just too sparodically located and the country is HUGE. As of right now, I could see a very small temple in Novosibirsk before seeing a larger temple in Moscow.
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