In September, the Church reached the milestone of 3,100 stakes. The Church reached 3,000 stakes in December 2012, indicating that it has taken less than two years for the number of stakes to increase by 100. For the past four years (2011-2014) the Church has had a net increase of 45 or more stakes a year. This is the longest streak of larger numbers of stakes being created within a four-year time period since the four-year period including the years 1995, 1996, 1997, and 1998. As stakes have the most rigorous standards for member activity rates, this recent development suggests some real, measurable progress in rectifying some inactivity and convert attrition problems.
With three more months remaining in 2014, this year is shaping out to be the largest net increase in the number of stakes since 1998. Currently 50 stakes have been organized in 2014, with many more to be created in the coming month or two. I predict that we may experience a net increase of 70 stakes in 2014 as new stake creations generally pick up in November in December based on recent trends over the past few years.
35 comments:
I think the surge has boosted retention. Very few stakes are being consolidated anymore. This is another wonderful story.
Yes, this is a wonderful story and I do believe the surge has boosted retention or perhaps more accurately increased reactivation.
The rapid growth of stakes in the past few years is also comforting, given that the criteria for a stake went up a few years ago. With higher criteria for stake creation, stakes don't split too soon and don't go back to too small a cushion.
The Pavia Ward, Iloilo Philippines North Stake, was created on 21 September. There are now 6 wards and 4 branches in the stake:
Jaro 1st Ward
Jaro 2nd Ward
Lapaz Ward
Lapuz Ward
Leganes Ward
Pavia Ward
Calinog Branch
Dumangas Branch
Passi Branch
Pototan Branch
What's the latest word on the "crisis of apostasy not seen since Kirtland" that Marlin K. Jensen admitted to a year or two ago?
Is there a graph anywhere that illustrates the declining activity rate in the church over the last 25 years?
Shelama, since the Church does not publicly disclose its activity rate it is difficult to document trends in activity rates - though someone else might have something better to say about this than I.
I would have to add, though, that more members leaving the Church does not necessarily mean that the activity rate is declining - as growth from converts, children-of-record baptisms and reactivations can make up for people leaving and even result in a net positive activity rate growth.
I would guess that, based on news posted at this blog and on Cumorah, that the activity rate is actually slightly improving. Still got quite a ways to go though.
What are the US requirements for wards and stakes? It would help me figure out a couple of potential new stakes in Alaska (I have 3 realistic ones on my "wishlist") My current (high) estimates are for 3500 members (total, active or not). This would also help me potentially see why the Wasilla stake has not split.
I have all the necessary numbers and averages, I just need the numbers for wards and stakes to figure out the rest.
Wards need 12 AFTPMPH. Stakes in the U.S. need 120 AFTPMPH and 3000 members.
How many members needed for a ward? Is it 3000 active members? I chose 3500 as a 500 member cushion. If it is merely 3000 members, there needs to be a couple hundred more members before Wasilla can split. I went ahead and added the Cordova Branch to the potential Palmer stake, which puts it slightly over 3000 estimated members, but only 2800 for the Wasilla side. I think at least one more chapel on each side and maybe one more ward on each side.
Based on Pres. Monson's comments in the Saturday morning session of conference and information on ldschurchtemples.com, there will be between five and nine temples dedicated or rededicated next year. That will make it the biggest temple year since 2002. If all nine occur, then since 2000. Below I've listed the five most likely dedications and the four additional possibilities.
Most Likely to be Dedicated in 2015:
Córdoba Argentina Temple
Indianapolis Indiana Temple
Payson Utah Temple
Rome Italy Temple
Trujillo Peru Temple
Possibly Re/Dedicated in 2015:
Provo City Center Temple
Tijuana Mexico Temple
Mexico City Mexico Temple (rededicated)
Montreal Quebec Temple (rededicated)
Provo City Center still appears to be on track for very late 2015, if not just a little earlier, they'll take down the scaffolding in a couple months and move all work inside along with the exterior landscape and grounds work. What exterior work remains is likely to be related to the art glass installation.
Payson is likely to be the first one, they're laying sod outside now and have had some big furniture deliveries.
Suva Fiji is closing for a year or so for a refurb too, that will probably lead to a rededication next year as well.
Requirement for a ward in the US or Canada:
1. 300 members
2. 15 active, full tithe paying, Melchelzedek Priesthood holders (AFTPMPH)
3. 1 AFTPMPH for every 20 members (thus, if the new ward has 400 members, 20 AFTPMPH would be required.
Outside the United States and Canada, the only difference is requirement 1, which is 150 members.
The requirements for a Branch inside a stake is 4-6 AFTPMPHs and 20 members.
The requirement for a Branch inside a mission is 6 active priesthood holders (including Aaronic Priesthood), with at least one active Melchezedek priesthood holder. No minimum number of members (other than the priesthood requirement).
For a stake, the requirements are:
1. At least 5 wards (although apparently multiple branches can replace a ward).
2. 24 AFTPMPHs (capable of serving in stake leadership callings), plus those required for the wards and branches.
3. 3000 members in the US and Canada, 1900 outside.
Note, as the wards and branches need to add up to 3000 members in the US and Canada, the wards and branches would require 3000/20 or 150 AFTPMPHs in addition to the 24.
Note, some wards require fewer members. For example, YSA wards require 125 active members and should be divided if they exceed 245 active members.
Non-native language wards require 150 members, even if in the US and Canada. Makes me wonder if English wards in Quebec require 150 or 300 members. I read handbook 1 as saying 150, just as French wards in the rest of Canada or the US would require 150 as well. But, I suspect English wards in Quebec probably have the 300 member requirement.
Our ward split a year and a half ago leaving us with about 310 members, where we remained at until this past summer, when several large families moved out of the ward and we have now dropped down to about 280 members, which means we are below the level required for a ward. I asked a member of the stake presidency yesterday if there is any thought of moving boundaries as three neighboring wards have grown quite large. He responded that that had been discussed, but as we average about 180 in the ward, the stake has decided not to do anything about it for a while. Rumor has it that there is a boundary realignment in the works, but not to fix our ward, but to create a 14th ward (16th unit) in the stake. We are still about 450 members away from being able to split the stake.
One more--YSA branches require 50 active members.
Ryan, I am curious.
What are the three or so new stakes you see may be possible?
Ryan, I am curious.
What are the three or so new stakes you see may be possible?
Without knowing activity rates and actual member locations, these are based on averages of total membership.
Current
Anchorage Alaska Stake (9,3)
Anchorage Alaska Chugach Stake (7,4)
Anchorage Alaska North Stake (10,2)
Fairbanks Alaska Stake (9,6)
Juneau Alaska Stake (5,10)
Soldotna Alaska Stake (5,2)
Wasilla Alaska Stake (14,0)
"Wishlist"
*average LDS/Congregatipn in Anchorage is 484.
Anchorage Alaska Stake (7,0) approx 3388 members - Arctic Chapel
- Cook Inlet YSA, Dimond (Samoan), Inlet View, Jewel Lake, Lake Hood (Tongan), Sand Lake, and Turnagain wards.
3 English, 1 Samoan, 1 Tongan, 1 YSA
Anchorage Alaska North Stake (6,2) approx 3872 members - Baxter Chapel
- Airport Heights, Chester Valley, Chugach Foothills, Lake Otis (Samoan), Northern Lights (Samoan), and Russian Jack Wards; Maplewood (Spanish) and Muldoon (Hmong) Branches
4 English, 2 Samoan Wards; 1 Hmong, 1 Spanish Branch
Anchorage Alaska South Stake (7,1) approx 3872 members - Brayton Chapel
- Brayton, Campbell Park, Huffman, Klatt, Oceanview, O'Malley, and Rabbit Creek Wards; Girdwood Branch
7 English Wards and 1 English Branch
Eagle River Alaska Stake (6,4) approx 3226 members - Eagle River Chapel
*renamed from Anchorage Alaska Chugach Stake
- Alpenglow, Anchorage YSA, Arctic Valley, Beach Lake, Bear Mountain, and Meadow Creek Wards; Anchorage Bush, Bethel, Dillingham, and Dutch Harbor Branches
5 English Wards, 1 YSA Ward; 3 English Branches, 1 Regional Branch
*average LDS/Congregatipn in Fairbanks North Star is 469.
Fairbanks Alaska Stake (5,3) approx 2896 members - Chapel on Cowles
* Involves all numbered wards renamed
- Fairbanks 1st, Fairbanks 2nd, Fairbanks 3rd, Fairbanks 5th, and Fairbanks 6th Wards; Denali, Fairbanks YSA, and Tamarack Branhes
5 English Wards; 2 English, 1 YSA Branch
North Pole Alaska Stake (4,5) approx 2574 members - North Pole Chapel
- Badger Road, Delta Junction, Eielson, and North Pole Wards; Kotzebue, Nome, North Slope, Salcha, and Tok Branches
4 English Wards; 5 English Branches
Juneau Alaska Stake (5,10) approx 3437 members (Alaska only) - no change
*average LDS/Congregation in Kenai Peninsula is 586.
Soldotna Alaska Stake (5,1) approx 3368 members - only loses Cordova Branch
*average LDS/Congregatipn in Matanuska-Susitna is 427.
Palmer Alaska Stake (7,1) approx 3013 members - Palmer Chapel
- Colony, Cottonwood, Fishhook, Matanuska, Palmer, Pioneer Peak, and Valdez Wards; Cordova Branch
7 English Wards and 1 English Branch
Wasilla Alaska Stake (7,0) approx 2982 members
- Big Lake, Knik-Fairview, Memory Lake, Settlers Bay, Susitna YSA, Wasilla, and Willow Wards
6 English, 1 YSA
For Statistics, I did not include the Anchorage Bush and Tongass Branches because they are both regional branches.
I figure we still have a while to go. The Chugach Stake just had Stake Conference and there were no changes. The North Stake has one in November, and I am hoping for some boundary changes. My parents' ward in the North Stake is about 25% active with close to 600 on roll, and active members hesitant to accept callings.
Is the "1 AFTPMPH for every 20 members" rule 1 for every 20 active members or 1 for every 20 members on the roll? In some places with high inactivity the latter requirment could prevent new wards from forming that could otherwise function fine. For example, my ward has about 55 AMPHs (I have no idea who is a full tithe payer) and 705 people on the roll, which gives us a pretty decent AFTPMPH to member ratio, but in our ward conference two weeks ago the Stake President said our ward staffs about half of the stake callings (including half of the High Council). This is because other wards in the stake have just the minimum priesthood to operate. My understanding is one of the neighnoring wards has over 800 on the roll, but maybe half the AMPHs that my ward has, which would put them below the ratio. And there are places in the world where the ratio may be worse. This isn't to say those wards don't function. There are enough people to keep things going in general, it's just the ratio that gets skewed when some places attract more inactives than others.
The Oceania Ward, João Pessoa Brazil Stake, was created on 28 September. There are now 8 wards and 1 branch in the stake:
Bessa Ward
Cabedelo Ward
Ipês Ward
João Pessoa Ward
Manaíra Ward
Mandacaru Ward
Oceania Ward
Tambaú Ward
Lucena Branch
The Siem Reap 2nd Branch, Cambodia Phnom Penh Mission, was created on 5 October. There are now 4 independent branches in the mission:
Kampong Thom Branch
Siem Reap 1st Branch
Siem Reap 2nd Branch
Battambang Cambodia District
Kampong Cham Cambodia District
Phnom Penh Cambodia Central District (Vietnamese)
Phnom Penh Cambodia East District
Siem Reap Cambodia Family History Center
Cambodia Phnom Penh Mission Branch
Ryan, thank you for posting your work.
I note that one of the Fairbanks Ward (4th???) covers a huge area--much of northern Alaska. I wonder if it operates similarly to the Tongass and Anchorage Bush Branches. I wonder about a ward functioning like these branches, but it is a huge area it covers.
MLewis82, it is for total members. However, exceptions can be granted for areas where it isn't possible. But, it does make it clear, if a proposed new ward has substantially more than 300 members, it must have more than the 15 minimum AFTPMPHs.
The Fairbanks 3rd Ward does work similarly to the Tongass and Anchorage Bush Branch, though the Fairbanks 3rd has a specific base in Fairbanks, whereas the Anchorage Bush and Tongass Branches have no base. The Tok branch used to be the Yukon Interior Branch which covered most of the current 3rd Ward. As part of my "wishlist," the Anchorage Bush branch would absorb all of the communities that are isolated (or on the road system above the Yukon River), as none of these communities could drive to their assigned congregation. An expansion project is in the works to extend the road all the way to the town of Tanana, but it is still rather isolated. There aren't many gas stations along the road that is being extended to begin with. I think this project is part of a plan to extend the road all the way to Nome, but there is much opposition and a lot of details to sort out. This in turn is part of a plan to build a bridge to Siberia.
Very interesting discussion and conjecture about growth and units in Alaska. I have a few questions:
How has the population growth the last 5, 10, 20, 30 years affected LDS populations?
In the last 5 years with the recession (general economic downturn, maybe 2007-2011), did some jobs go away? Therefore some good LDS, too? Or did Alaska do better economically than most of the rest of the US?
How is the temple attendance? How many new missionaries came because of the new 2012 surge? Have many more youth left since then?
I have an old high school friend named Curt that I lives IVO Anchorage, I invited him to go.
I also read that Alaska has the highest percentage of former military. In military intelligence there is a disproportionate number of LDS, but the overall numbers may not be significant in all the specialities. Makes me wonder, though.
Good luck with the future stakes there. And overall growth. Last new stake was Chugach in 2002, and before that Juneau in 1995. All else was were 80s or before.
FYI Matt:
You have the name of the Church misspelled in your profile. It should be:
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. The capital D in day is a common error. Capital D is one of the offshoot churches I think.
I think the LDS population in Alaska is growing quicker than the general population. A few years ago, it was estimated that 1 out of every 24 people were LDS, and now, I estimate it to be 1 out of every 22 people (I also have the ratio for all boroughs).
I believe jobs are doing pretty well, there are lots and lots of places that are hiring.
I am not sure about temple attendence (I need to go myself more often), but when I got my own endowment in 2010, they said they didn't get very many live endowments. The few times I have done endowments at the temple, they were for live endowments, and each time they required extra chairs ( the endowment rooms are small, maybe 50 or so seats). We only have 1 sealing room, but the baptistry is probably the busiest one. Now, for baptisms, the temple will only provide 5 names per person, and if someone wants to do more, they must provide their own names.
To my knowledge, ward growth in Alaska has been great in recent years. The Dimond (Samoan) Ward was created just before I left for my mission in 2011, and since then (if I recall, ther have been the Oceanview (Anchorage), Auke Bay (Juneau), Badger Road (Fairbanks), Palmer, Big Lake, and Memory Lake (Wasilla) Wards created and the Valdez Branch upgraded. In about 4 years, that is 8 new wards, 6 of them being very close to Anchorage, and 3 of them just in the Valley!
As far as future branch upgrades, I am not sure, but the Bethel and Craig Branches have over 170 members (I am not sure if any of the ones in Bethel are in the Anchorage Bush Branch or if any of the ones on Prince of Wales Island are in the Tongass Branch).
We had a YSA conference this year, and there were a good number of YSAs from the Soldotna Stake (which is not a part of any YSA). They probably don't have enough for their own branch yet, but I feel it could happen in a few years.
Alaska needs to have some more chapels to expand, some locations as part of my wishlish include new chapels in South Anchorage (for the O'Malley and Campbell Park Wards), in Chugiak (for the Beach Lake and Bear Mountain Wards), in Butte (for the Pioneer Peak Ward), in Houston (for the Big Lake Ward), in Moose Creek (for the Eielson Ward), and in western Fairbanks (for the Fairbanks 1st and 6th Wards). I also included chapels for Girdwood and Nenana, so the Girdwood and Tamarack Branches could meet in a Church-owned building.
Based on ARDA
Where LDS Ranked 8th
- Dillingham and Nome
Ranked 6th
- Northwest Arctic
Ranked 5th
- Haines, Hoonah-Angoon, and North Slope
Ranked 4th
- Aleutians West, Bethel, Denali, Petersburg, and Prince of Wales-Hyder
Ranked 3rd
- Anchorage, Kodiak Island, Sitka, and Wragell
Ranked 2nd
- Fairbanks North Star, Juneau, Kenai Peninsula, Ketchikan Gateway, Matanuska-Susitna, Skagway, Southeast Fairbanks, and Valdez-Cordova
Ranked 1st
- Yakutat
No rank available
- Aleutians East, Bristol Bay, Lake and Peninsula, Wade Hampton, and Yukon-Koyukuk
There are also a lot of former military up here as well. I would not born here if my grandpa did not retire here.
When my family ward had all the military families, our ward was very active, until the Arctic Valley Ward was created and almost gutted our ward, which led to our ward getting discontinued a good while later, and put with another struggling ward. I think if my home ward were to grow, they need some of the military back, maybe between the Glenn Hwy and Ship Creek.
The Abakaliki Nigeria District, Nigeria Enugu Mission, was created on 14 September. There are 4 branches in the district:
Abakaliki Branch
Afikpo 1st Branch
Afikpo 2nd Branch
Okposi Branch
The Afikpo 2nd Branch, Abakaliki Nigeria District, Nigeria Enugu Mission, was created on 6 September.
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The Aputuogya Branch, Kumasi Ghana Dichemso Stake, was created on 5 October. There are now 7 wards and 4 branches in the stake:
Asokwa Ward
Buokrom Ward
Dichemso Ward
Konongo 1st Ward
Konongo 2nd Ward
Kwamo Ward
University Ward
Aputuogya Branch
Atonsu Branch
Daban Branch
Domeabra Branch
The Livulu Ward, Kinshasa Democratic Republic of the Congo Mont Ngafula Stake, was created on 5 October. There are now 7 wards and 1 branch in the stake:
Badiadingi Ward
Dumez Ward
Livulu Ward
Makala Ward
Mont Amba Ward
Mont Ngafula Ward
Ngaba Ward
Kimbondo Branch
The Paynesville 3rd Branch, Monrovia Liberia District, Liberia Monrovia Mission, was created on 5 October. There are now 7 branches in the district:
Congo Town 1st Branch
Congo Town 2nd Branch
Doe Community Branch
Logan Town Branch
Matadi Branch
Paynesville 3rd Branch
Sinkor Branch
The Yaba Branch, Nigeria Benin City Mission, was created on 28 September. There are now 6 independent branches in the mission:
Agbor Nigeria District
Asaba Nigeria District
Ekpoma Nigeria District
Ogwashi-Nsukwa Nigeria District
Adonte Branch
Akure Branch
Nigeria Benin City Mission Branch
Oghara-Sapele Branch
Ondo Branch
Yaba Branch
Ryan, thank you for the very interesting discussion of the Church in Alaska.
I should have looked it up. There is no Fairbanks 4th Ward (I guess the Fairbanks YSA Branch might have had that number at one point, as there is a Fairbanks 5th Ward).
So, does the Fairbanks 3rd ward have a normal block of meetings with isolated member from all over calling in or skyping in? How does that work?
According to ARDA, the top 15 denominations in Alaska overall are:
Catholic Church 104 congregations; 50,866 adherents
Non-denominational 157; 38,070
LDS 80; 32,170
Southern Baptist Convention 102; 19,891
Orthodox Church in America; 86; 12,652
Assemblies of God 87; 10,261
Evangelical Lutheran Church in America 35; 9,642
Episcopal Church 50; 7,234
United Methodist Church 28; 5,585
Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) 38; 4,460
Seventh-day Adventist Church 33; 4,361
Lutheran Church--Missouri Synod 14; 3,665
Christian Churches and Churches of Christ 11; 3,586
Buddhism, Theravada 4; 3,405
Church of the Nazarene 26; 3,175
Now, Non-denominational is not a denomination. This indicates 157 separate churches, which total 38,070 adherents.
Do either the Tongass or Anchorage Bush branches (or the Fairbanks 3rd Ward) have groups in various places in their vast territories? I ask because for most other denominations, the equivalent of an LDS group is in fact considered a congregation. 70% of Protestant churches have fewer than 70 members and a lot have maybe 10-15 members with a part time pastor. It is not uncommon to see several congregations sharing the same pastor in these circumstances. But, they all show up as congregations in ARDA.
On the ARDA counts, they are counts based on the congregation's location, not on the spread among counties (or in Alaska county equivalents). The Tongass Branch lists Juneau as its home and the Anchorage Bush Branch, Anchorage. Thus, their entire membership is counted in ARDa in Juneau or Anchorage, respectively and same with the Fairbanks 3rd Ward, regardless of which borough or census designated area members may actually reside in.
You can see, for example, in various states, two congregations meeting in the same building, but one roughly covering 1 county and 1 covering another. ARDA will show 2 congregations and the full membership in 1 county and none in another. There is a branch in rural Nebraska that covers several counties, so the branch and its membership show up in ARDA for one county and comes to about half the population of the county. It is nice spike on some charts, but the LDS population is undoubtedly spread over several counties.
I note that the second chapel in Juneau opened this past August. I had thought the YSA branch would be in the new building because it is so close to the University. The Auke Bay and Nugget Falls wards (and the Tongass Branch is also listed in both CDOL and on LDS maps as being in the building, but this would be its administrative home, because the members are spread throughout Southeast Alaska outside of the boundaries of the five wards and nine other branches in the stake) are in this building, while the Mount Juneau Ward and the Juneau YSA Branch remain in the stake center.
The Juneau Empire (http://juneauempire.com/local/2014-08-11/mormon-church-bucks-trend#.VDSadSldU00)
has a nice article about the opening of the second chapel in Juneau.
I am unaware of any groups operating in Alaska. There are not very many English speakers in western Alaska (the primary language is Yup'ik), but there are no Church materials in those languages. I have been told that there is at least on missionary thst speaks Navajo (which I guess is similar to Yup'ik). There are quite a few Yup'ik who have joined the Church, but most of them speak English well enough. I believe there are 10,000 Yu'pik Speakers. Aside from Inupiaq, all the other Alaska native languages are endangered. Some Dena'ina-inspired names are being used for streets and buildings in Anchorage (whose native lands are in the Cook Inlet region), the most notable one is the Tikahtnu shopping center just up the road from where I live, which is what they called the Cook Inlet.
The stakes that have bush branches, I believe regularly skype or call for talks. I once gave a talk over audio to the Dillingham Branch. I imagine for the Fairbanks 3rd Ward, Tongass Branch, and Anchorage Bush Branch, the talks are primarily given in Fairbanks, Juneau, and Anchorage respectively.
I am unsure of the sizes of the Palmer or North Pole Chapels, or if they would need to be expanded to be a stake center. In the Chugach Stake, the Muldoon and Alpenglow chapels are the same size (small-size chapels). The Eagle River Chapel would be a small stake center (particularly with not much parking). Our stake offices are at the Eagle River chapel, but for Sunday Stake Conference, we have to meet at Baxter (now in the North Stake) because it would be imposdible for everyone to park at Eagle River. Back when Chester Valley and Centennial Park Wards were in the Chugach Stake, we did quite a few stake conferences where those in Anchorage went to Baxter, and those in Eagle River teleconferenced at Eagle River as well as Bethel, Nome, and Kotzebue in their chapels.
In maps showing the predominant religion, many boroughs where LDS was listed 2nd (since non-denominational is not a denomination), LDS would be shown as first (like Kenai Peninsula, Mat-Su, and Valdez-Cordova).
Now that the Tongass Branch is at the new Juneau chapel, there are only 3 branches remaining not meeting in a regular chapel. As I have said, the Girdwood and Tamarack Branches meet in another building that is not Church-owned, and the Fairbanks YSA Branch (which used to be the Fairbanks 4th YSA Branch) meets at the Fairbanks Institute Building.
Judging from the picture for the new Juneau chapel, that chapel, the chapel in Knik-Fairview, Colony, Alpenglow, Muldoon, Lake Hood, and Klatt chapels are all roughly the same size and floor plan. The Muldoon chapel's floorplan is opposite from the Alpenglow, Colony, and Klatt chapels. The Arctic stake center has a design lake these chapels, but on a much larger scale (the building is huge!)
The Church owns 5.72 acres off Inner springer Loop in Palmer, enough land for a stake center.
Palmer Alaska stake just split from wasilla stake last week. Super exciting
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