Sunday, January 31, 2010

Updated Potential Temple Maps

It's been 11 months since I provided maps for likely locations for future new temples. I have revised some of these predictions based on adjustments to calculating likelihood scores. Scores were previously ascertained based on distance, number of stakes/districts in the temple district, the presence of stakes created prior to 1980, and how frequently endowment sessions are held at the nearest temple on Saturdays. Adjusted scores include these factors in addition to the weekday temple schedule and whether a mission is headquartered in the city.

According to the new model, the following temples appear most likely:
  1. Kinshasa DR Congo
  2. Rio de Janeiro Brazil
  3. Layton Utah
  4. Price Utah
  5. Singapore
  6. Tucson Arizona
  7. Evanston Wyoming
  8. Arequipa Peru
  9. Bahia Blanca/Neuquen Argentina
  10. Jacksonville Florida
A total of 36 cities had the same score or higher compared to recently announced temples. 32 of these cities are include in the potential temples map. Temples likely to be announced by 2020 are included in the potential temples by 2020 map.

Potential Temples



View Potential New Temples in a larger map

Potential Temples 2020



View Potential New Temples 2020 in a larger map

16 comments:

Craig M said...

Perhaps it is just wishful thinking, but a Richmond, VA temple seems more likely than Virginia Beach -- not only could it serve the 3 Richmond stakes and the 3 Hampton Roads stakes, but it would also about an hour closer than the DC temple for those in the Roanoke, Pembroke, Buena Vista, and Waynesboro stakes.

Matt said...

I agree. For some of the potential temple locations I've included two cities for a likely temple site (like Bahia Blanca/Neuquen Argentina). I've made that adjustment for Richmond/Virginia Beach as well based on your comment.

Jeff said...

Matt,

Thanks for the great blog--I am a devoted follower and appreciate all your hard work. On the projected temples, I wonder about a few of your top ten. I've crunched numbers too for over a hundred potential sites, so here's my two bits:

1. Kinshasa--This would be great, but ongoing civil war (even if it's far from Kinshasa itself) may delay this temple for a while. With the temple in Nigeria currently closed because of violence, domestic unrest is clearly a concern for the Church.
2. Rio--Yes.
3. Layton--will likely be announced after Brigham City/Payson are finished.
4. Price--I see Cedar City as a more likely candidate for the next 'Utah outside the Wasatch Front' temple.
5. Singapore--Too soon, I think. The numbers can be made to add up, but to me they don't make much sense.
6. Tucson--I think Pocatello is more likely as next 'Mormon settlement area outside of Utah' temple.
7. Evanston--Possible, but I think Evanston is somewhat of a Gila Valley-style dark horse candidate.
8. Arequipa--Yes.
9. Bahia Blanca/Neuquen--I think both Mendoza and Tucuman/Salta are more likely for the next Argentina temple.
10. Jacksonville--I think Craig is onto something here. Richmond will likely be the next East Coast temple.

So my top ten would be: Pocatello, Richmond, San Juan Puerto Rico (outside chance to be sure), Puebla, Managua, Arequipa, Rio de Janeiro, Brasilia, Kinshasa (despite my earlier comment), and Davao (likelier, I think, than Cagayan de Oro for Mindanao).

Let me know what you think and keep up the great work!

Rick said...

I just have a comment on Layton. I could actually see the next temple for the Davis-Weber County area being on the west side of I-15 in the Roy-Clinton-Syracuse area. (Layton does stretch west of I-15, but most of it lies east.) Layton seems the likely choice on paper because of the large number of stakes, but it doesn't make as much sense geographically to have another temple east of I-15 between Ogden and Bountiful. Here are some considerations:

A Layton temple would surely serve the stakes of Kaysville, but that would be a big hit to the Bountiful temple, which is a LARGE temple serving only 33 stakes in a district with little potential for growth. The Mount Timpanogos temple is the same size as the Bountiful temple and is serving twice as many stakes.

The east side of I-15 is largely developed. Houses stretch from the interstate to the mountains with little room left for growth. The west side of I-15, on the other hand, has wide open spaces and is seeing good growth similar to the west side of Salt Lake county.

A precedent was set in Salt Lake County for dividing temple districts on east and west sides of the valley. North-South travel tends to be much easier than East-West travel in Utah.

As a side note, I could see Tooele as another consideration for Utah, especially after an announcement like Brigham City.

Jeff said...

Rick,

I think your comments are spot on, with Syracuse or Clearfield being equally as likely as Layton, if not more. Matt may have more information on how crowded Bountiful is, but it has always seemed pretty busy to me. Mount Timp, by contrast, may soon be ready to shed some stakes for a Lehi/Eagle Mountain/Saratoga Springs temple (15 stakes with most of them having 10 wards or more). And yes, the Tooele Valley, with 11 stakes and a few close to splitting, has as much or more of a claim as Brigham City did in terms of membership and distance.

Holly Walton said...

In terms of Utah, I see Cedar City as one of the next most likely places for a temple.

Matt, I was wondering if you have ever given much thought to the Kirtland temple coming back into the church's hands. I have seen a quote from President Packer on it years ago that makes me think no but I was just curious to see what you thought or anyone else. I know the temple was never used for the endowment but I think it could easily be changed for that if we were to receive it again somehow? What do you guys think?

Pleather Murse said...

If I'm not mistaken, the Kirtland House of the Lord is a National Historic Landmark and thus could not easily be made available for the major retrofit that would be required to turn it into a modern-style Temple, even assuming that the CoC is willing to part with it.

It is a beautiful building -- I visited it last summer -- and a wonderful early example (the first really) of the multi-use Temple concept (public and private worship and administration functions set off in the same structure) that would be repeated in Nauvoo and in modern times in Hong Kong, Manhattan and elsewhere. But I don't think it will become a functioning modern Temple. If anything, I'd expect a temple in Cleveland or Pittsburgh to one day serve the needs of members in that geographic region. (The closest ones right now are Columbus and Palmyra.)

Pleather Murse said...

Correction ... on consulting the map (duh) apparently Pittsburgh is quite far from the region so shouldn't enter into the equation at all. Sorry. The closest functioning temples to Kirtland are Detroit, Columbus and Palmyra, which still leaves a door open for Cleveland perhaps.

Rick said...

Yes! Northern Utah County is another example of phenomenal growth on the west side. Wards are popping up in Lehi, Saratoga Springs, and Eagle Mountain all the time. A temple in that area seems very likely in the future. In the meantime, it wouldn't surprise me to see some of the Orem stakes shift from the Mount Timpanogos temple to the Provo temple after the Payson temple is completed. Provo will lose about 20 stakes, and it is closer for Orem members.

Matt said...

Thanks for your comments.

There is a lot of potential in Utah for many more temples to be announced. Potential locations we have identified include Cedar City, Layton-Syracuse, Lehi, Price, and Tooele. I think all of these are likely possibilities but with so many recently announced temples in Utah and how long it took for additional temple to be announced in the Salt Lake area to relieve the overcrowding the 112 stakes caused in the Jordan River Utah Temple we might not see many of these temples get announced for quite some time.

It would be interesting to compare temple attendance from a decade ago to present for temples like Mount Timpanogos so we could get a better idea how much temple activity has increased over the past decade.

I do not think we'll see the Kirtland Temple become an operating temple of the Church. We may see an additional temple in northern Ohio or Western Pennsylvania. Missionaries in the region reported in the past couple days that the Ohio Cincinnati Mission will be discontinued in July.

While I am on this topic, Lesotho and the southern portion of Free State in South Africa are getting transferred to the South Africa Durban Mission in the coming weeks.

rfelsted said...

Rick,

Good analysis on a potential new Davis/Weber temple.

I wonder if you have figured the size of a possible Pocatello Temple District. It would pull from Idaho Falls, Logan, and Twin Falls Temple Districts. The Logan and Idaho Falls Districts are quite large, but the Twin Falls District only has about 15 stakes and around 125 wards and branches, although there are many districts much smaller than that.

timsphelps said...

Indianapolis should be on your list. If you look at a map, there is a big hole among,Chicago, Detroit, Columbus OH and Lousiville. Indiana[oilis is in the center of that hole. Our stake has doubled its scheduled temple weekends and when we go, the Louisville temple is overflowing. Recently, we set a record of completing over 2,000 ordinances in one day- a record for the Louisville temple.
It is fun to speculate, however, temple sites are determined by revelation!

Jeff said...

The Pocatello district would include the ten stakes in the city plus approximately another ten from the surrounding area. The Twin Falls district would hardly be affected at all by a Pocatello temple and Logan would likely only lose the Arimo, Grace, and Soda Springs stakes.

Tim--If you look at the map(s) provided by Matt, Indianapolis is on the list, just not on the top ten list. Great to hear the Louisville temple is being well used!

Rick said...

A Pocatello Idaho Temple would most likely serve 21 stakes: the 10 stakes of Pocatello, the 5 stakes of Blackfoot, plus the Chubbuck, American Falls, McCammon, Arimo, Grace, and Soda Springs stakes. That is 18 from the Idaho Falls district and 3 from the Logan district. The Twin Falls district would not be affected. That would leave the Idaho temples with the following totals:

Boise Idaho Temple - 30 stakes
Idaho Falls Idaho Temple - 27 stakes
Pocatello Idaho Temple - 21 stakes
Rexburg Idaho Temple - 20 stakes
Twin Falls Idaho Temple - 15 stakes

Because Idaho Falls is a slightly larger metro than Pocatello and would have a larger temple, the Blackfoot stakes could be retained in that district. However, Blackfoot is a little closer to Pocatello and its 5 stakes are part of the Pocatello Coordinating Council.

David said...

First of all, I think this website is a great bit of fun.
I noticed on your first map that you have Edinburgh as a potential location. I am in the Preston Temple district, and it is largely underused, so I wouldn't expect a temple in Scotland until we are really using the one we have.
PS as a former resident, a Cedar City Temple would be amazing, but again, I think its a little too close to St George for now.

Scott Eborn said...

Why not just build another temple in Kirtland,? and if we ever re-acquire the temple turn it into a dedicated visitors center?