tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2786908254617003646.post5093756516200774839..comments2024-03-27T17:28:09.345-06:00Comments on Growth of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS Church): Membership Growth in 2008Matthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16030323360917985701noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2786908254617003646.post-46973516443960801482009-03-02T20:23:00.000-07:002009-03-02T20:23:00.000-07:00Matt,Great site. This is David Stewart from cumora...Matt,<BR/><BR/>Great site. This is David Stewart from cumorah.com. One additional explanation should be considered for Brazil, which is that the decline in membership growth may reflect at least in part a number of members removed from the rolls due to record clean-ups. We know from other data that the number of people in the "lost address" file in these nations is huge, i.e. over 200,000 in Chile in 2004 out of 535,000 on the rolls, compared to only 57,000 weekly church attenders. Past record "clean-ups" have resulted in stagnation or even declines in total membership even as baptisms have continued, such as the post-baseball baptism cleanup in the UK several decades ago.<BR/><BR/>I see as more likely than a 40-50% decrease in annual baptisms in Brazil, the combination of (1) modest record cleanup removing from the rolls some records that cannot be validated and (2) a more modest decline in total baptism numbers.<BR/><BR/>"Accelerated membership growth during the past few years" also needs to be taken in the longer context; the short term has been bumpy with significant ups and downs. For 2004, 241,239 LDS convert baptisms were reported, the lowest number of converts since 1987, in spite of record numbers of missionaries serving and increasing total membership numbers. There has been slight improvement since that time but it is important to remember that the recent numbers are coming off of a 20-year nadir. 5.3 annual baptisms per missionaries is better than the low of 4.5-4.6, but this is still far from the 6-6.5 which was the norm for the fifteen-year period 1985-1999.<BR/><BR/>Contemporary growth rates still leave much to be desired; when taken in context of increasing nominal membership numbers, LDS growth rates have slowed from >5% in the 1980s and 90s to less than 3% at present.<BR/><BR/>Of course retention is another matter; there have been recent improvements in retention although these have been spotty and not entirely consistent.<BR/><BR/>Best wishes,<BR/><BR/>David Stewart<BR/>dgstewart@yahoo.comDavid Stewarthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17733596401289654141noreply@blogger.com